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1.
In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude (M W), local magnitude (M L), and the duration magnitude (M D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M W-M L and M W-M D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M W values can be considered consistent with M L and M D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region.  相似文献   

2.
Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M S ) and seismic moment (M W ) magnitudes are calculated.  相似文献   

3.
The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the regions of the North Caucasus are analyzed for estimating the ground motion parameters during the probable future strong earthquakes. Based on the records of the regional earthquakes with magnitudes MW ~ 3.9–5.6 within epicentral distances up to ~300 km obtained during the period of digital measurements at the Sochi and Anapa seismic stations, the Q-factors in the vicinities of these sites are estimated at ~55 f0.9 and ~90f0.7, respectively. The estimates were obtained by the coda normalization method developed by Aki, Rautian, and other authors. This method is based on the phenomenon of suppression of the earthquake (source) effects and local (site) responses by coda waves in the S-wave spectra. The obtained Q-factor estimates can be used for forecasting the ground shaking parameters for the future probable strong earthquakes in the North Caucasus in the vicinities of Sochi and Anapa.  相似文献   

4.
On April 29, 2017 at 0:56 UTC (2:56 local time), an MW =?2.8 earthquake struck the metropolitan area between Leipzig and Halle, Germany, near the small town of Markranstädt. The earthquake was felt within 50 km from the epicenter and reached a local intensity of I0 = IV. Already in 2015 and only 15 km northwest of the epicenter, a MW =?3.2 earthquake struck the area with a similar large felt radius and I0 = IV. More than 1.1 million people live in the region, and the unusual occurrence of the two earthquakes led to public attention, because the tectonic activity is unclear and induced earthquakes have occurred in neighboring regions. Historical earthquakes south of Leipzig had estimated magnitudes up to MW ≈?5 and coincide with NW-SE striking crustal basement faults. We use different seismological methods to analyze the two recent earthquakes and discuss them in the context of the known tectonic structures and historical seismicity. Novel stochastic full waveform simulation and inversion approaches are adapted for the application to weak, local earthquakes, to analyze mechanisms and ground motions and their relation to observed intensities. We find NW-SE striking normal faulting mechanisms for both earthquakes and centroid depths of 26 and 29 km. The earthquakes are located where faults with large vertical offsets of several hundred meters and Hercynian strike have developed since the Mesozoic. We use a stochastic full waveform simulation to explain the local peak ground velocities and calibrate the method to simulate intensities. Since the area is densely populated and has sensitive infrastructure, we simulate scenarios assuming that a 12-km long fault segment between the two recent earthquakes is ruptured and study the impact of rupture parameters on ground motions and expected damage.  相似文献   

5.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (MMci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logNMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

6.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

7.
Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.  相似文献   

8.
Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M N =6.5, M N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.  相似文献   

9.
Based on a comparison of the cases of a decrease in the ratio of A n/A μ (where A n and A μ are the amplitudes of the diurnal variations of the neutron and hard cosmic ray components) to the instants of the Earth crossing the neutral IMF, it has been indicated that the process of such crossing is most effective for stimulating large destructive earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥ 6. The 11-year period in the cyclicity of the occurrence probability of the above earthquakes has been revealed.  相似文献   

10.
We investigated ground response for Baku (Azerbaijan) from two earthquakes of magnitude M6.3 occurred in Caspian Sea (characterized as a near event) and M7.5 in Shamakhi (characterized as a remote extreme event). S-wave velocity with the average shear wave velocity over the topmost 30 m of soil is obtained by experimental method from the V P values measured for the soils. The downtown part of Baku city is characterized by low VS30 values (< 250 m/s), related to sand, water-saturated sand, gravel-pebble, and limestone with clay. High surface PGA of 240 gal for the M7.5 event and of about 190 gal for the M6.3 event, and hence a high ground motion amplification, is observed in the shoreline area, through downtown, in the north-west, and in the east parts of Baku city with soft clays, loamy sands, gravel, sediments.  相似文献   

11.
We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L)?=?A?+?B·(5 – M)?+?C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.  相似文献   

12.
Based on the Anapa (ANN) seismic station records of ~40 earthquakes (MW > 3.9) that occurred within ~300 km of the station since 2002 up to the present time, the source parameters and quality factor of the Earth’s crust (Q(f)) and upper mantle are estimated for the S-waves in the 1–8 Hz frequency band. The regional coda analysis techniques which allow separating the effects associated with seismic source (source effects) and with the propagation path of seismic waves (path effects) are employed. The Q-factor estimates are obtained in the form Q(f) = 90 × f 0.7 for the epicentral distances r < 120 km and in the form Q(f) = 90 × f1.0 for r > 120 km. The established Q(f) and source parameters are close to the estimates for Central Japan, which is probably due to the similar tectonic structure of the regions. The shapes of the source parameters are found to be independent of the magnitude of the earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.9–5.6; however, the radiation of the high-frequency components (f > 4–5 Hz) is enhanced with the depth of the source (down to h ~ 60 km). The estimates Q(f) of the quality factor determined from the records by the Sochi, Anapa, and Kislovodsk seismic stations allowed a more accurate determination of the seismic moments and magnitudes of the Caucasian earthquakes. The studies will be continued for obtaining the Q(f) estimates, geometrical spreading functions, and frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves in the Earth’s crust in the other regions of the Northern Caucasus.  相似文献   

13.
The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves within the Baikal Rift Zone in Buryatia are studied to estimate the ground motion parameters from the probable future strong earthquakes. The regional parameters of seismic radiation and propagation are estimated by the stochastic simulation (which provides the closest agreement between the calculations and observations) of the acceleration time histories of the earthquakes recorded by the Ulan-Ude seismic station. The acceleration time histories of the strongest earthquakes (M W ~ 3.4–4.8) that occurred in 2006–2011 at the epicentral distances of ~96–125 km and had source depths of ~8–12 km have been modeled. The calculations are conducted with estimates of the Q-factor which were previously obtained for the region. The frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading are estimated from the data on the deep structure of the crust and upper mantle (velocity sections) in the Ulan-Ude region, and the parameters determining the wave forms and duration of acceleration time histories are found by fitting. These parameters fairly well describe all the considered earthquakes. The Ulan-Ude station can be considered as the reference bedrock station with minimum local effects. The obtained estimates for the parameters of seismic radiation and propagation can be used for forecasting the ground motion from the future strong earthquakes and for constructing the seismic zoning maps for Buryatia.  相似文献   

14.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

15.
To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w  ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T w  = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.  相似文献   

16.
Recent studies have shown that the vertical component of ground motion can be quite destructive on a variety of structural systems. Development of response spectrum for design of buildings subjected to vertical component of earthquake needs ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The existing GMPEs for northern Iranian plateau are proposed for the horizontal component of earthquake, and there is not any specified GMPE for the vertical component of earthquake in this region. Determination of GMPEs is mostly based on regression analyses on earthquake parameters such as magnitude, site class, distance, and spectral amplitudes. In this study, 325 three-component records of 55 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from M w 4.1 to M w 7.3 are used for estimation on the regression coefficients. Records with distances less than 300 km are selected for analyses in the database. The regression analyses on earthquake parameters results in determination of GMPEs for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for both horizontal and vertical components of the ground motion. The correlation between the models for vertical and horizontal GMPEs is studied in details. These models are later compared with some other available GMPEs. According to the result of this investigation, the proposed GMPEs are in agreement with the other relationships that were developed based on the local and regional data.  相似文献   

17.
The seismological data in the area of induced seismicity in the region of the Nurek reservoir are analyzed. The analysis is based on the developed database for the earthquakes that occurred from 1955 to 1989 and is aimed at finding the regularities in the variations of the parameters of the transitional seismic regime caused by filling a reservoir. These parameters include the b-value—the slope of the graph of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relationship, the fractal dimension d of the set of the epicenters, and fracture cycle parameter q = αb ? d, where coefficient α determines the ratio between the magnitude and source size M = α log l + β. It is shown that during the filling of a reservoir, these parameters undergo statistically reliable variations: at the initial stages, the b-value increases, the fractal dimension of the set of epicenters decreases, and the fracture cycle parameter q grows and becomes positive in the middle of the time interval of reservoir filling. After a reservoir is filled, these parameters recover their background values. The aftershock sequences of the three strongest earthquakes—before, in the beginning, and in the middle of the reservoir filling period—are studied. It is confirmed that the Omori parameter p for the aftershock sequences during filling is smaller than for the earthquake before filling. Based on the dynamics of the studied parameters, it is conjectured that the relaxation time of the transitional seismic regime after the emergence of induced seismicity is about 10 years.  相似文献   

18.
Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes.  相似文献   

19.
At the beginning of the 21st century, a series of great earthquakes were recorded in northeastern Tibet, along the periphery of the Bayan Hara lithospheric block. An earthquake with MS = 8.1 occurred within the East Kunlun fault zone in the Kunlun Mountains, which caused an extended surface rupture with left-lateral strike slip. An earthquake with MS = 8 occurred in Wenchuan (China) on May 12, 2008, giving rise to an extended overthrust along the Lunmanshan fault zone. An earthquake with MS = 7.1 occurred in Yushu (China) on April 14, 2010; its epicenter was on the Grazze–Yushu–Funchuoshan fault; a left-lateral strikeslip offset was observed on the surface. An earthquake with MS = 7 occurred in the vicinity of Lushan on April 20, 2013; its epicenter was within the Lunmanshan fault zone, 103 km southwest of the zone of the catastrophic Wenchuan earthquake. An earthquake with MS = 8.2 occurred in Nepal on April 25, 2015. Based on the CSN seismic catalog, the energy of all earthquakes in eastern Tibet at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries was estimated. It was found that Tibet was seismically quiet from 1980 to 2000. The beginning of the 21st century has been marked by seismic activation with earthquake sources migrating southward to surround the Bayan Hara lithospheric block from every quarter. Therefore, this block can be regarded as one of the most seismically active regions of China.  相似文献   

20.
The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (Ms = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (Ms = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (Ms = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (Ms = 6.9) earthquakes.  相似文献   

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