The comparison of ensemble or deterministic dispersion modeling on global dispersion during Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

Ensemble forcasting,originally developed for weather prediction,is lately being extended to atmospheric dispersion applications,which is a new,effective methodology for improving the atmospheric dispersion numerical modeling.In March 2011,due to the massive 9.0 earthquakes and ensuing tsunami that struck off the northern coast of the island of Honshu,the Fukushima Nuclear Plant I had the substantial leak of radioactive materials into surrounding environment and atmosphere.To aim at the global dispersion modeling of atmospheric radionuclides from Fukushima Nuclear Accident,this paper presents two approaches of atmospheric dispersion forecasting:ensemble dispersion modeling(EDM) and deterministic dispersion modeling(DDM),conducts the globally dispersion modeling cases for Fukushima nuclear accident,and analyzes and evaluates the simulation results using observation data.In this paper,EDM includes three different perturbation methods:meteorological perturbation method,turbulence perturbation method,and physical parameterization ensemble forecasting method.The simulation results show that the trajectories from EDM have a better performance,which is in better agreement with the atmospheric circulation and observation data; the spread from DDM is slower and not as far as EDM.Additionally,the results from EDM display a better performance in the modeling of transport from Japan to China East Sea on April 4.The reasons for these results are:the techniques of MET and TUR are performed by adding perturbations on mean wind and turbulent velocity,respectively; the various different flow fields will result in far spreading in horizontal and the simulation results closer to observation; PHY is performed by using different diffusion physical parameterizations and produces the perturbations on vertical wind,which results the spreading in smaller range and discontinuous in horizontal.Finally,the comparative analysis between modeling results and observation data shows that all cases results are in good agreement with trends of observed radionuclides surface concentration; however,the modeling surface concentration is smaller than observation,especially in DDM and PHY.Furthermore,the EDM results show that MET and TUR are of more evolutionary advantage than PHY in modeling of average and maximum concentration.Therefore,this study can serve as a reference to atmospheric dispersion and environmental emergency response(EER).     

The numerical simulation of caesium-137 transportation in oceanand the assessment of its radioactive impacts after Fukushima NPP release

After the damage of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, a great number of radioactive materials were released into the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, it is necessary to research on the temporal and spatial distribution of these radionuclides. We use Princeton Ocean Model to simulate the circulation of the coast water of Fukushima NPP and obtain the concentration of caesium-137 by solving the diffusion equations. We employ the Monte Carlo N-particle(MCNP) code to assess the external doses caused by these contaminated sea water. To improve the efficiency and effectiveness of volume source in MCNP code, we establish a transformation method between spot source and volume source, and determine an appropriate range of volume source. Finally, we calculate the absorbed doses of every organ/tissue and the effective dose of a human body.     

Redistribution and export of contaminated sediment within eastern Fukushima Prefecture due to typhoon flooding

Tropical cyclones expose river basins to heavy rainfall and flooding, and cause substantial soil erosion and sediment transport. There is heightened interest in the effects of typhoon floods on river basins in northeast Japan, as the migration of radiocaesium‐bearing soils contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident will affect future radiation levels. The five main catchments surrounding FDNPP are the Odaka, Ukedo, Maeda, Kuma and Tomioka basins, but little quantitative modelling has been undertaken to identify the sediment redistribution patterns and controlling processes across these basins. Here we address this issue and report catchment‐scale modelling of the five basins using the GETFLOWS simulation code. The three‐dimensional (3D) models of the basins incorporated details of the geology, soil type, land cover, and used data from meteorological records as inputs. The simulation results were checked against field monitoring data for water flow rates, suspended sediment concentrations and accumulated sediment erosion and deposition. The results show that the majority of annual sediment migration in the basins occurs over storm periods, thus making typhoons the main vectors for redistribution. The Ukedo and Tomioka basins are the most important basins in the region in terms of overall sediment transport, followed by the other three basins each with similar discharge amounts. Erosion is strongly correlated with the underlying geology and the surface topography in the study area. A low permeability Pliocene Dainenji formation in the coastal area causes high surface water flow rates and soil erosion. Conversely, erosion is lower in an area with high permeability granite basement rocks between the Hatagawa and Futaba faults in the centre of the study area. Land cover is also a factor controlling differences in erosion and transport rates between forested areas in the west of the study area and predominantly agricultural areas towards the east. The largest sediment depositions occur in the Ogaki and Takigawa Dams, at the confluence of the Takase and Ukedo Rivers, and at the Ukedo River mouth. Having clarified the sediment redistribution patterns and controlling processes, these results can assist the ongoing task of monitoring radioactive caesium redistribution within Fukushima Prefecture, and contribute to the design and implementation of measures to protect health and the environment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wind-driven diversion of summer river runoff preconditions the Laptev Sea coastal polynya hydrography: Evidence from summer-to-winter hydrographic records of 2007–2009

This paper examines the role of atmospheric forcing in modifying the pathways of riverine water on the Laptev Sea shelf, using summer-to-winter hydrographic surveys from 2007 to 2009. Over the two consecutive winter seasons of 2007–2008 and 2008–2009 in the area of the winter coastal polynya, our data clearly link winter surface salinity fields to the previous summer conditions, with substantially different winter salinity patterns preconditioned by summer atmospheric forcing. In the summer of 2007, dominant along-shore westerly winds in the cyclonic regime force the Lena River runoff to flow eastward. In contrast, in the summer of 2008, dominant along-shore easterly winds over the East Siberian Sea and on-shore northerly winds over the Laptev Sea in the anticyclonic regime lock the riverine water in the vicinity of the Lena Delta. Over the coastal polynya area in the southeastern Laptev Sea these patterns precondition a surface salinity difference of 8–16 psu between the winters of 2008 and 2009. Overall, this indicates a residence time of at least half a year for riverine water on the Laptev Sea shelf. Future climate change associated with an enhanced summer cyclonicity over the eastern Arctic may turn more riverine water eastward along the eastern Siberian coast, resulting in weaker vertical density stratification over the Laptev Sea shelf, with possible impact on the efficiency of vertical mixing and polynya dense water production.     

The westerly fluctuation and water vapor transport over the Qilian-Heihe valley

The westerly fluctuation and the atmospheric water vapor transport over the Qilian-Heihe valley are analyzed and the results show that, in the water vapor transport stream field from Jun to September, this valley is in the westerly stream and the water vapor comes from westerlies water transport via the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. The net water vapor transport is less net import and different from most areas of the northwest China. The interannual changes in water vapor transport over the valley arise from the westerly fluctuation, and have a positive relationship to the interannual changes in westerly wind speed. The cold air actions from the Mongol low pressure are the primary system that controls the westerly water vapor transport. Its action chain is that, the Mongol low pressure is strengthened → the circulation meridionality will be increased → the cold air will move southwards → the westerly will be stronger → the wind convergence of direction and speed will be stronger → the water vapor convergence transport will be increased → the local water vapor content will be increased. The interannual changes in atmospheric water vapor transport over the valley rely mainly on the convergence transport, but the effect of advection transport is less. The interannual changes of strong or weak westerly affect mainly the convergence transport, and then make the atmospheric water vapor net transport increase or decrease over the Qilian-Heihe valley.     

The westerly fluctuation and water vapor transport over the Qilian-Heihe valley

The westerly fluctuation and the atmospheric water vapor transport over the Qilian-Heihe valley are analyzed and the results show that, in the water vapor transport stream field from Jun to September, this valley is in the westerly stream and the water vapor comes from westerlies water transport via the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. The net water vapor transport is less net import and different from most areas of the northwest China. The interannual changes in water vapor transport over the valley arise from the westerly fluctuation, and have a positive relationship to the interannual changes in westerly wind speed. The cold air actions from the Mongol low pressure are the primary system that controls the westerly water vapor transport. Its action chain is that, the Mongol low pressure is strengthened → the circulation meridionality will be increased → the cold air will move southwards → the westerly will be stronger → the wind convergence of direction and speed will be stronger → the water vapor convergence transport will be increased → the local water vapor content will be increased. The interannual changes in atmospheric water vapor transport over the valley rely mainly on the convergence transport, but the effect of advection transport is less. The interannual changes of strong or weak westerly affect mainly the convergence transport, and then make the atmospheric water vapor net transport increase or decrease over the Qilian-Heihe valley.     

Analysis of Radionuclide Releases from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident Part II

The present part of the publication (Part II) deals with long range dispersion of radionuclides emitted into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident that occurred after the March 11, 2011 tsunami. The first part (Part I) is dedicated to the accident features relying on radionuclide detections performed by monitoring stations of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization network. In this study, the emissions of the three fission products Cs-137, I-131 and Xe-133 are investigated. Regarding Xe-133, the total release is estimated to be of the order of 6 × 10¹⁸ Bq emitted during the explosions of units 1, 2 and 3. The total source term estimated gives a fraction of core inventory of about 8 × 10¹⁸ Bq at the time of reactors shutdown. This result suggests that at least 80 % of the core inventory has been released into the atmosphere and indicates a broad meltdown of reactor cores. Total atmospheric releases of Cs-137 and I-131 aerosols are estimated to be 10¹⁶ and 10¹⁷ Bq, respectively. By neglecting gas/particulate conversion phenomena, the total release of I-131 (gas + aerosol) could be estimated to be 4 × 10¹⁷ Bq. Atmospheric transport simulations suggest that the main air emissions have occurred during the events of March 14, 2011 (UTC) and that no major release occurred after March 23. The radioactivity emitted into the atmosphere could represent 10 % of the Chernobyl accident releases for I-131 and Cs-137.     

Mineralogical and geomicrobial examination of soil contamination by radioactive Cs due to 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

Soil contamination by radioactive Cs from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident was investigated. Absorption and desorption experiments of Cs were conducted for several phyllosillicates (kaolinite, sericite, montmorillonite, vermiculite, chrysotile and biotite), zeolite and solid organic matter (dead and green leaves). The results confirmed the characteristic sorption and desorption of Cs by these materials. The 2:1 type phyllosilicate, especially, vermiculite and montmorillonite absorbed Cs well. Heated vermiculite for agricultural use and weathered montmorillonite also adsorbed Cs. Leaves also absorbed Cs considerably but easily desorbed it. In summary, the relative capacity and strength of different materials for sorption of Cs followed the order: zeolite (clinoptilolite) > 2:1 type clay mineral > 1:1 type clay mineral > dead and green leaves. Culture experiments using bacteria of both naturally living on dead leaves in Iitate village, Fukushima Pref. and bacterial strains of Bacillus subtillis, Rhodococus erythropolis, Streptomyces aomiensis and Actinomycetospora chlora were carried out. Non-radioactive 1% Cs solution (CsCl) was added to the culture media. Two types of strong or considerable bacterial uptakes of Cs were found in bacterial cells. One is that Cs was contained mainly as globules inside bacteria and the other is that Cs was absorbed in the whole bacterial cells. The globules consisted mainly of Cs and P. Based on all these results, future diffusion and re-circulation behavior of Cs in the surface environment was discussed.     

我国核电厂设计中考虑的自然灾害综述与建议

我国是目前世界在建核电机组最多的国家,总装机容量世界第三,是名副其实的核大国,核安全是国家安全的重要内容,被提到了前所未有的高度.同时,我国也是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,包括核电厂在内的重大工程建设高度重视自然灾害防御设计.日本311地震海啸引起福岛核事故后,核电厂设计中增强了对超设计基准自然灾害的考虑.本文对核...     

Use of offshore wind farms to increase seismic resilience of Nuclear Power Plants

One of the challenges faced by the engineering profession is to meet the energy requirement of an increasingly prosperous world. Nuclear power was considered as a reliable option until the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) disaster which eroded the public confidence. This short paper shows that offshore wind turbines (due to its shape and form, i.e. heavy rotating mass resting at the top of a tall tower) have long natural vibration periods (>3.0 s) and are less susceptible to earthquake dynamics. The performance of near-shore wind turbines structures during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake is reviewed. It has been observed that they performed well. As NPPs are often sited close to the sea, it is proposed that a small wind farm capable of supplying emergency backup power along with a NPP can be a better safety system (robust and resilient system) in avoiding cascading failures and catastrophic consequences.     

核电厂地震安全性评价衰减关系影响分析

地震危险性分析中的不确定性处理和表征,一直是核电厂厂址地震安全性评价中倍受关注的重要问题,尤其是日本福岛核事故后,无论是确定核电厂厂址的设计基准地震动,还是进行核电厂地震风险评价,都更加重视地震危险性分析中的不确定性.本文通过理论分析重点说明了衰减关系的不确定性,包括标准差和截断水平对核电厂地震安全性评价的影响,并在此基础上,通过算例和讨论说明了概率性方法截断水平的选取问题,探讨了现行确定性方法和概率性方法在截断水平选取上的差异.分析计算结果表明,在地震活动较弱的区域,概率性方法截断水平为3,确定性方法截断水平为0的现行做法是恰当的.但是,对于发震构造大震复发间隔较小的区域,为了使二者在超越概率方面协调,恰当提高确定性方法的截断水平更为合理.     

2007年7月16日日本新潟地震对柏崎刈羽核电站的影响

2007年7月16日日本新潟县柏崎市附近海域发生MW6.6地震(日本气象局震级MJMA6.8)。该地震引发世界最大核电厂——柏崎刈羽核电站多起核安全事件,是世界范围内有记载的对核电站影响最为严重的一次地震。本文根据收集到的资料,详细介绍了该地震对柏崎刈羽核电站造成的影响,文章最后概述了日本、国际原子能机构对该地震的反思以及我们应该从中吸取的经验教训。     

The geomorphology and evolution of a large barrier spit: Farewell Spit,New Zealand

Farewell Spit is a 25 km long barrier spit that marks the end of a littoral drift system, almost 1000 km in length that runs along South Island, New Zealand. The spit is composed of barchan dunes over 20 m high, sand sheets over 1 km wide and vegetated linear dunes. Analysis of aerial photography indicates a rapid colonization of the spit by vegetation which has expanded in area by 75% since 1950. Vegetation colonization preferentially occurs on the southern side of the spit, with its northern margin characterized by barchan dunes which migrate at rates of up to 64 m/yr. Sand sourced from longshore drift appears to be the primary source of beach sediment, which is then transported into the dune field by the persistent westerly winds of the Roaring 40s. While there has been significant dune roll‐over on the surface of the spit, its overall area has remained much the same for the past 54 years. Occasional cyclone events cause erosion, but this is balanced by aeolian sediment transport. It would appear that extension of the subaerial portion of the spit is related to the development of shells banks at its downdrift end which are periodically welded to the main spit by dune extension. Farewell Spit therefore provides an ideal example of a barrier environment where longshore sediment supply and aeolian transport dominates geomorphic evolution. This differentiates the study site from other barrier environments where overwash or tidal inlet development often characterizes recent landform evolution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison between modelling and measurement of marine dispersion,environmental half-time and 137Cs inventories after the Fukushima Daiichi accident

Contamination of the marine environment following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) represents the most important influx of artificial radioactivity released into the sea ever recorded. The evaluation, in near real time, of the total amount of radionuclide released at sea and of the residence time in coastal waters were ones of challenges for nuclear authorities during this event. In the framework of a crisis situation, a numerical hydrodynamical model has been built and used ‘as is’. The concomitant use of this numerical model and in situ data allows the comparison of the simulated and measured environmental half-times. A tuning of the wind drag coefficient has been nevertheless necessary to reproduce the evolution of measured inventories of ¹³⁷Cs and ¹³⁴Cs between April and June 2011. After tuning, the relative mean absolute error between measured and simulated concentrations for the 849 measurements in the dataset is 69 %, while the relative bias indicates a model underestimation of 4 %. These results confirm the estimates of the source term, i.e. 27 PBq (12–41 PBq) for direct releases and 3 PBq for atmospheric deposition onto the sea. The parameters applied here to simulate atmospheric deposition onto the sea are within the correct order of magnitude for reproducing seawater concentrations. Quantitative inventories of tracers which integrate dispersion and transport processes are useful to test model reliability. It exhausts the model sensibility to meteorological forcing, which remains difficult to appraise to reproduce mid- to long-term transport.     

影响中国北方强降雪事件年际变化的典型环流背景和水汽收支特征分析

基于1961-2014年中国台站观测资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,对影响中国北方强降雪事件（日降雪量5 mm及以上,包括大到暴雪）年际变化的典型大尺度环流特征和水汽条件进行了综合分析.结果表明：中国北方强降雪事件主要集中在新疆北部和东北两个地区,而且强降雪日数和降雪量具有高度一致的年际变化特征.中国北方强降雪事件偏多时,对应北大西洋涛动（NAO）和北极涛动（AO）负位相;贝加尔湖上空维持异常低槽区,有利于冷空气的爆发南下;热带印度洋至热带西太平洋上空维持一条异常反气旋带,有利于暖湿气流向北输送;中国北方及以北区域高空为异常西风气流,提供有利的动力抬升条件,使得强降雪易于在中国北方发生;反之亦然.水汽收支分析显示,中国北方西边界和南边界水汽入流增强在强降雪偏多中起着主要贡献.异常西风水汽输送利于新疆北部大到暴雪偏多,异常西南风水汽输送则利于东北地区大到暴雪的发生.进一步研究揭示：与小雪相比,影响中国北方大到暴雪年际偏多的中高纬环流特征相类似,但环流经向度更大;而且大到暴雪与NAO和AO的关系更密切,并更多的受到来自中低纬地区的水汽输送影响.     

Computation and Analysis of the Global Distribution of the Radioxenon Isotope 133Xe based on Emissions from Nuclear Power Plants and Radioisotope Production Facilities and its Relevance for the Verification of the Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Monitoring of radioactive noble gases, in particular xenon isotopes, is a crucial element of the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The capability of the noble gas network, which is currently under construction, to detect signals from a nuclear explosion critically depends on the background created by other sources. Therefore, the global distribution of these isotopes based on emissions and transport patterns needs to be understood. A significant xenon background exists in the reactor regions of North America, Europe and Asia. An emission inventory of the four relevant xenon isotopes has recently been created, which specifies source terms for each power plant. As the major emitters of xenon isotopes worldwide, a few medical radioisotope production facilities have been recently identified, in particular the facilities in Chalk River (Canada), Fleurus (Belgium), Pelindaba (South Africa) and Petten (Netherlands). Emissions from these sites are expected to exceed those of the other sources by orders of magnitude. In this study, emphasis is put on ¹³³Xe, which is the most prevalent xenon isotope. First, based on the emissions known, the resulting ¹³³Xe concentration levels at all noble gas stations of the final CTBT verification network were calculated and found to be consistent with observations. Second, it turned out that emissions from the radioisotope facilities can explain a number of observed peaks, meaning that atmospheric transport modelling is an important tool for the categorization of measurements. Third, it became evident that Nuclear Power Plant emissions are more difficult to treat in the models, since their temporal variation is high and not generally reported. Fourth, there are indications that the assumed annual emissions may be underestimated by factors of two to ten, while the general emission patterns seem to be well understood. Finally, it became evident that ¹³³Xe sources mainly influence the sensitivity of the monitoring system in the mid-latitudes, where the network coverage is particularly good.     

Characteristics of Stable Flows over Southern Greenland

The main characteristic features of stable atmospheric flows over a large mountain plateau are summarised and then compared with mesoscale and synoptic scale numerical simulation, meteorological analysis, satellite imagery, and surface observations for the cases of flows over Southern Greenland for four wind directions. The detailed features are identified using the concepts and scaling of stably stratified flow over large mountains with variations in surface roughness, elevation, and heating. For westerly and easterly winds detached jets form at the southern tip, where coastal jets converge, which propagate large distances across the ocean. Near coasts katabatic winds can combine with barrier jets and wake flows generated by synoptic winds. Note how the approach flow rises/falls over southern Greenland for easterly/westerly winds, leading in both cases to more cloud on the western side. Some conclusions are drawn about the large-scale influences of these flows; detached jets in the atmosphere; air-sea interaction; formation of low pressure systems. For accurate simulations of these flows, mesoscale models are necessary with resolutions of order of 20 km or less.     

Hydrogen and helium isotope inner radiation belts in the Earth’s magnetosphere

Radial transport theory for inner radiation zone MeV ions has been extended by combining radial diffusive transport and losses due to Coulomb friction with local generation of D, T and ³He ions from nuclear reactions taking place on the inner edge of the inner radiation zone. Based on interactions between high energy trapped protons and upper atmospheric constituents we have included a nuclear reaction yield D, T and ³He flux source that was numerically derived from a nuclear reaction model code originally developed at the Institute of Nuclear Researches in Moscow, Russia. Magnetospheric transport computations have been made covering the L-shell range L=1.0–1.6. The resulting MeV energy D, T and ³He ion flux distributions show a strong influence of the local nuclear source mechanism on the inner zone energetic D, T and ³He ion content.     

Distribution of local Cs anomalies on the seafloor near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant

An estimated 3.5 ± 0.7 × 10¹⁵ Bq of ¹³⁷Cs is thought to have been discharged into the ocean following the melt down at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (F1NPP). While efforts have been made to monitor seafloor radiation levels, the sampling techniques used cannot capture the continuous distribution of radionuclides. In this work, we apply in situ measurement techniques using a towed gamma ray spectrometer to map the continuous distribution of ¹³⁷Cs on the seafloor within 20 km of the F1NPP. The results reveal the existence of local ¹³⁷Cs anomalies, with levels of ¹³⁷Cs an order of magnitude higher than the surrounding seafloors. The sizes of the anomalies mapped in this work range from a few meters to a few hundreds of meters in length, and it is demonstrated that the distribution of these anomalies is strongly influenced by meter scale features of the terrain.     

核电厂扩建工程设计地震动参数校核研究

核电工程从预可行性研究到正式施工设计,往往有一个很长的周期。以泰山核电二期工程建设项目为例,地震动参数确定是在十多年前完成的,因此其设计地震动参数的校核工作应当在吸收这十多年来我国在活动构造识别、地震活动的不均匀性处理、地震区带划分、潜在震源区的识别和参数确定、地震动衰减等方面的最新研究成果的基础上进行。研究结果表明,新增的地震地质资料进一步补充了原工作报告对地震地质研究的结论,地震的活动特征则没有发生根本变化;工作区内破坏性地震的平均震源深度约为12km,与全国平均震源深度（约为15km）有差别。在对工作区地震地质、地震活动背景最新研究的基础上,考虑本地区有代表性的不同潜在震源区的划分方案,分别采用对应的地震动参数衰减关系进行地震危险性概率分析计算,校核后综合确定秦山核电二期扩建工程厂址的极限安全地震动SL-2为0．15g,这与1990年的结论一致。本文提出的核电扩建工程地震动参数校核工作的技术路线,可供类似的重大工程地震动参数校核参考。