Neural network technique for identifying prognostic anomalies from low-frequency electromagnetic signals in the Kuril–Kamchatka region

In this paper, we suggest a technique for forecasting seismic events based on the very low and low frequency (VLF and LF) signals in the 10 to 50 Hz band using the neural network approach, specifically, the error back-propagation method (EBPM). In this method, the solution of the problem has two main stages: training and recognition (forecasting). The training set is constructed from the combined data, including the amplitudes and phases of the VLF/LF signals measured in the monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka region and the corresponding parameters of regional seismicity. Training the neural network establishes the internal relationship between the characteristic changes in the VLF/LF signals a few days before a seismic event and the corresponding level of seismicity. The trained neural network is then applied in a prognostic mode for automated detection of the anomalous changes in the signal which are associated with seismic activity exceeding the assumed threshold level. By the example of several time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, we demonstrate the efficiency of the neural network approach in the short-term forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes starting from M ≥ 5.5 from the nighttime variations in the amplitudes and phases of the LF signals on one radio path. We also discuss the results of the simultaneous analysis of the VLF/LF data measured on two partially overlapping paths aimed at revealing the correlations between the nighttime variations in the amplitude of the signal and seismic activity.     

Oceanic units in the core of the External Rif (Morocco): Intramargin hiatus or South-Tethyan remnants?

The aim of this paper is to describe the mafic rocks that crop out in the central-western Mesorif Zone (External Rif Belt), and discuss their geodynamic signification. Basalt flows, olistoliths and breccias occur in Oxfordian–Berriasian deposits of Mesorif units ascribed to the distal part of the African paleomargin. The climax of volcanic activity is observed at the northern border of a Kimmeridgian carbonate platform progressively dismembered during the Tithonian–Berriasian. In spite of the alteration of the basalts, their petrological and geochemical characters point to E-MORB affinities. The studied gabbro massifs (Bou Adel, Kef el Rhar west and north) occur as restricted slivers or klippes within the Senhadja nappe or mélange of the internal Mesorif, which overlies the basalt-bearing units and other, more external Mesorif units. The compositions range from troctolitic olivine gabbro to ferrogabbro with frequent ortho- to heteradcumulate textures; they display typical tholeiitic affinity. The gabbro massifs are crosscut by trondjhemite dykes and overlain by metabasalts, fault-scarp breccias, ophicalcites, marbles and radiolarites. Composition featuring initial near liquid composition, display multi elements patterns close to those of E-MORB, with a weak Eu negative anomaly and evidence of slight crustal contamination. These gabbro massifs were regarded as Jurassic–Cretaceous intrusions, locally dated (K–Ar) at 166 ± 3 Ma. Conversely, we assume they represent discrete samples of a Jurassic–Cretaceous oceanic basement (ophiolites), emplaced tectonically in the Senhadja nappe (mélange) of the central Mesorif. The correlation of both these types of mafic rock associations (paleomargin basalts and ophiolite klippes) with the serpentinites of the eastern Mesorif (Beni Malek) and Oran mountains (Algeria) is then briefly discussed. We conclude that the previous hypothesis of an intramargin “Mesorif suture zone” must be reconsidered, being challenged by that of a major, syn-collisional “Oran-Mesorif Strike-Slip Fault”. In the latter hypothesis, the newly described Mesorif oceanic klippes would represent allochthonous remnants of the Ligurian–Maghrebian (Tethyan) oceanic domain.     

Cristobalite in the 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption (Chile)

Cristobalite is a low-pressure high-temperature polymorph of SiO₂ found in many volcanic rocks. Its volcanogenic formation has received attention because (1) pure particulate cristobalite can be toxic when inhaled, and its dispersal in volcanic ash is therefore a potential hazard; and (2) its nominal stability field is at temperatures higher than those of magmatic systems, making it an interesting example of metastable crystallization. We present analyses (by XRD, SEM, EPMA, Laser Raman, and synchrotron μ-cT) of representative rhyolitic pyroclasts and of samples from different facies of the compound lava flow from the 2011–2012 eruption of Cordón Caulle (Chile). Cristobalite was not detected in pyroclasts, negating any concern for respiratory hazards, but it makes up 0–23 wt% of lava samples, occurring as prismatic vapour-deposited crystals in vesicles and/or as a groundmass phase in microcrystalline samples. Textures of lava collected near the vent, which best represent those generated in the conduit, indicate that pore isolation promotes vapour deposition of cristobalite. Mass balance shows that the SiO₂ deposited in isolated pore space can have originated from corrosion of the adjacent groundmass. Textures of lava collected down-flow were modified during transport in the insulated interior of the flow, where protracted cooling, additional vesiculation events, and shearing overprint original textures. In the most slowly cooled and intensely sheared samples from the core of the flow, nearly all original pore space is lost, and vapour-deposited cristobalite crystals are crushed and incorporated into the groundmass as the vesicles in which they formed collapse by strain and compaction of the surrounding matrix. Holocrystalline lava from the core of the flow achieves high mass concentrations of cristobalite as slow cooling allows extensive microlite crystallization and devitrification to form groundmass cristobalite. Vapour deposition and devitrification act concurrently but semi-independently. Both are promoted by slow cooling, and it is ultimately devitrification that most strongly contributes to total cristobalite content in a given flow facies. Our findings provide a new field context in which to address questions that have arisen from the study of cristobalite in dome eruptions, with insight afforded by the fundamentally different emplacement geometries of flows and domes.     

Ground fissures in the area of Mavropigi Village (N. Greece): Seismotectonics or mining activity?

In the beginning of July 2010, a ground fissure was observed in the field near the village of Mavropigi (Northern Greece) and specifically in its NW side. Later on (early September), a second ground fissure was perceived, close and almost parallel to the first one and very close to the limits of the lignite exploitation mine (by the Public Power Corporation, PPC). It was observed that the village of Mavropigi slides away slowly towards the PPC lignite mine. Geological, seismological, as well as geotechnical survey in the field indicated that the phenomenon is related to the coal mining exploitation in the near vicinity of the village rather than to any seismotectonic activity in the surrounding area.     

On the Vp/Vs–Mg# correlation in mantle peridotites: Implications for the identification of thermal and compositional anomalies in the upper mantle

We use thermodynamically self-consistent and hybrid methods to analyze the correlation of important physical parameters (e.g. bulk density, elastic moduli) with bulk Mg# and modal composition in mantle peridotites at upper mantle conditions. Temperature (anharmonic and anelastic), pressure and compositional derivatives for all these parameters are evaluated. The results show that the widely used correlations between Vp/Vs and Mg# in peridotites are strictly valid only for garnet-bearing assemblages at temperatures < 900 °C. The correlation breaks down when: i) spinel is the stable Al-rich phase in the assemblage and ii) when anelastic attenuation of seismic velocities becomes important (T ? 900 °C). This implies that the range of applicability of published Vp/Vs–Mg# correlations for the upper mantle is limited to a depth interval between the spinel–garnet phase transition and the 900 °C isotherm. We use numerical simulations to show that this depth interval is virtually nonexistent in lithospheres thinner than ～ 140 km and can comprise up to ～ 50% of the lithospheric mantle in thick (> 220 km) lithospheric domains. In addition, we show that for most of the upper mantle the expected Δ(Vp/Vs) values associated with compositional variations are smaller than the resolution limit of current seismological methods. All these considerations suggest that the Vp/Vs ratio is not a reliable measure of compositional variations and that for large parts of the upper mantle compositional anomalies cannot be separated from thermal anomalies on the basis of seismological studies only. We further confirm that the only reliable indicator of compositional anomalies in a peridotitic mantle is the ratio of density to shear wave velocities (ρ/Vs). Our results demonstrate that geophysical–petrological models (forward or inverse) that model these two fields (i.e. density and Vs) self-consistently within a robust thermodynamic framework are necessary for characterizing the small-scale thermal and compositional structure of the lithosphere and sublithospheric upper mantle.     

Source processes of large (M≥6.5) earthquakes of the Southeastern Caribbean (1926–1960)

We have conducted body waveform modeling studies of 13 historic earthquakes to provide a better understanding of the long-term spatial and temporal pattern of seismicity and deformation within a region extending from Barbuda, Lesser Antilles, to Cumana, Venezuela. Our results suggest that shallow earthquakes (<50 km deep) along the South American-Caribbean plate margin reflect right-lateral and extensional deformation. Intermediate depth events (100 km) show left-lateral strike-slip motion beneath the Paria peninsula of Venezuela. In the Lesser Antilles the 1960 Barbuda and 1946 Martinique earthquakes appear to be interplate thrust events, however the greatest moment release in the region has occurred at intermediate depths as a mixture of normal and strike-slip faulting, generally along trends oblique to the arc. The deformation rate estimated from the seismic moment release between 1926 and 1960 is only 1 to 10% of the estimated plate convergence rate for the region.     

Synchronization signals in the variations of groundwater chemical composition in Kamchatka in relation to the strong (M W ≥ 6.6) earthquakes

We consider the results of the statistical analysis using the methods of the principal components and canonical coherences applied to the processing of long (1986–2005) time series of hydrogeochemical observations at the flowing wells and springs in Kamchatka. The time-frequency diagrams of the evolution of informative statistics characterizing the collective behavior of multidimensional hydrogeochemical time series are constructed, and the time intervals and frequency bands where the synchronization signals (Lyubushin, 2007) appear are identified. The features of their occurrence are analyzed in comparison to the strong (M _w = 6.6?7.8) local earthquakes. It is found that such signals in the measurements of some multidimensional time series can arise both before and after earthquakes, i.e. these signals have a precursory (P2) and postseismic (P3) character.     

Spatial variations and temporal changes in potential evaporation in the Tarim Basin,northwest China (1960–2006): influenced by irrigation?

The spatial pattern and temporal changes in potential evaporation (1960–2006) were evaluated using data from 48 meteorological stations in the Tarim Basin. These stations are located in four typical landscapes with varying irrigation influences. Mean annual potential evaporation is low in stations in the mountainous regions, next in the large oasis regions with extensive irrigation and small oasis regions with restricted irrigation, whereas they are high in the desert regions. The spatial pattern of annual mean potential evaporation is owing to the aerodynamic term, while the radiation term is relatively constant in different regions. The significant levels of the trends in potential evaporation and the radiation and aerodynamic terms in different regions were detected using the non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test. More significant decreasing trends in annual potential evaporation with relatively constant radiation term were found in the oasis regions (especially the large oasis regions) than that in the mountainous and desert regions. In the large oasis regions, the pronounced decrease in potential evaporation is mainly attributed to the decrease in wind speed and the increase in relative humidity. The long‐term mean and annual potential evaporation with an almost constant radiation term were found to be complementary with actual evaporation influenced by irrigation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contemporary (1960–2012) Evolution of the Climate and Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

We assess the contemporary (1960–2012) surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), its individual components and trends. We use output of the high-resolution (11 km) regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2), evaluated with automatic weather stations and GRACE data. A persistent negative North Atlantic oscillation index over the last 6 years resulted in the summertime advection of relatively warm continental air toward the GrIS. Added to the enhanced radiative forcing by increased CO₂ levels, this has resulted in an increase in near-surface temperature of more than 2 K during 2007–2012 compared to 1960–1990. The associated decrease in albedo led to an extra absorption of shortwave radiation of ～6 Wm^?2 (11 %) in the summer months, which is the main driver of enhanced surface melting and runoff in recent years. From 1990 onward, we see a steady increase in meltwater runoff and an associated decrease in the SMB, accelerating after 2005, with the record low SMB year in 2010. Despite the fact that the GrIS was subject to the highest surface melt rates in 2012, relatively high accumulation rates prevented 2012 to set a record low SMB. In 2012, melt occurred relatively high on the ice sheet where melt water refreezes in the porous firn layer. Up to 2005, increased runoff was partly offset by increased accumulation rates. Since then, accumulation rates have decreased, resulting in low SMB values. Other causes of decreased SMB are the loss of firn pore space and decreasing refreezing rates in the higher ablation area. The GrIS has lost in total 1,800 ± 300 Gt of mass from surface processes alone since 1990 and about half of that in the last 6 years.     

Periodicity in midwest US climatic data: the Hale cycle signal or the luni-solar signal?

Cohen and Sweeter (1975) found the 20 to 22-year Hale (double sunspot) cycle signal in the maximum entropy spectra of sunspot and Atlantic tropical cyclone data. Currie (1996) corroborated and extended their analysis, but he argued that this signal is the 18.6-year luni-solar tidal constituent. Currie maintains that Cohen and Sweeter mistakenly conjectured that this long term periodicity was induced by the 20 to 22-year Hale cycle signal. However, no further investigation of periodicity in the extracted wave forms corresponding to the 18.6-year luni-solar signal was conducted. In this study, we follow Currie's signal processing procedures to extract the wave forms corresponding to the 18.6-year luni-solar signal. In order to investigate the periodicity in the extracted wave forms, multi-taper method (MTM) is used for harmonic analysis. Band pass filters are then designed to extract the wave forms corresponding to the individual components identified in the MTM harmonic analysis. The investigation results of the monthly precipitation and Palmer's drought severity index (PDSI) data in three of the midwestern states – Illinois, Indiana and Ohio – show that two periodic components, the 20 to 22-year Hale cycle signal and the other component with periods between 16.9 and 13.5 years, are identified. The bistability phenomenon, which Currie found in these wave forms, is more likely to result from the superposition of these two periodic components, rather than from a nonlinear mechanism. Besides, a periodic component with an approximate period of 33 years is detected.     

Periodicity in midwest US climatic data: the Hale cycle signal or the luni-solar signal?

Cohen and Sweeter (1975) found the 20 to 22-year Hale (double sunspot) cycle signal in the maximum entropy spectra of sunspot and Atlantic tropical cyclone data. Currie (1996) corroborated and extended their analysis, but he argued that this signal is the 18.6-year luni-solar tidal constituent. Currie maintains that Cohen and Sweeter mistakenly conjectured that this long term periodicity was induced by the 20 to 22-year Hale cycle signal. However, no further investigation of periodicity in the extracted wave forms corresponding to the 18.6-year luni-solar signal was conducted. In this study, we follow Currie's signal processing procedures to extract the wave forms corresponding to the 18.6-year luni-solar signal. In order to investigate the periodicity in the extracted wave forms, multi-taper method (MTM) is used for harmonic analysis. Band pass filters are then designed to extract the wave forms corresponding to the individual components identified in the MTM harmonic analysis. The investigation results of the monthly precipitation and Palmer's drought severity index (PDSI) data in three of the midwestern states – Illinois, Indiana and Ohio – show that two periodic components, the 20 to 22-year Hale cycle signal and the other component with periods between 16.9 and 13.5 years, are identified. The bistability phenomenon, which Currie found in these wave forms, is more likely to result from the superposition of these two periodic components, rather than from a nonlinear mechanism. Besides, a periodic component with an approximate period of 33 years is detected.     

Current runoff variations in the Macta catchment (Algeria): is climate the sole factor?

Abstract

The first objective of this paper is to analyse the trends and change points in the hydroclimatic time series of five representative sub-catchments of the Macta basin, which lies in western Algeria. The second objective is to quantify the role of climate on the trends observed in annual flow time series. This is achieved using hydrological modelling at the multi-annual time step using the Schreiber formulation. The results showed no significant trends on annual rainfall in the 1975–2005 period, a significant increase of temperature and different flow responses to the latter, depending on the catchment considered. Two out of five catchments considered presented a significant flow decrease in the 1975–2005 period with a change point at the beginning of the 1990s. Modelling results suggest that the increase of air temperature is not the sole factor explaining the decrease of annual flow time series in these two catchments.     

Dreissena polymorpha (Bivalvia: Dreissenidae) in the Neva Estuary (eastern Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea): is it a biofilter or source for pollution?

The zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, a ponto-caspian byssate bivalve, forms permanent dense populations along the shoreline in the northern part of the inner Neva Estuary. Its total biomass along a 17 km transect reached 4980 tons (mean 1060 g m(-2)) in 2000 and 6510 tons (mean 1385 g m(-2)) in 2001. Being persistent and abundant, the zebra mussel populations played an important role in benthic-pelagic coupling in inner Neva River Estuary. The D. polymorpha population released up to 514 kg day(-1) of dissolved inorganic phosphorus and was, therefore, a major source of bioavailable nutrients in the area. Mussel beds were also efficient biofilters and precipitate 15,020 kg day(-1) of particulate organic matter during the warm season. About 50% of precipitated matter had a relatively long retention time, being utilized within zebra mussel populations, while the rest was deposited as faeces and pseudofaeces and served as a source for organic pollution to the eastern Gulf of Finland.     

Accelerated ions observed in the plasma sheet boundary layer: Beams or streams?

We present an analysis of two crossings of the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) in Earth’s magnetotail by a quartet of Cluster satellites, accomplished both in the absolutely quiet geomagnetic interval and in the restoration period between two substorms. It is found that in the quiet period, field-aligned electric currents were not observed in the PSBL, in spite of presence in this region of high-velocity ions moving toward Earth along the magnetic field lines at velocities of ∼1400 km/s. This means that in the given event, ions and electrons moved together; i.e., high-velocity ions were a part of the accelerated plasma flow. In the disturbed period, the Cluster satellites detected a system of two oppositely directed field-aligned currents, which can be associated with the presence of the X line rather close to the Earth. Owing to multipoint Cluster observations, we managed to estimate the spatial size of a current structure (along the normal to the PSBL surface), which was equal, for a current flowing toward Earth along the high-latitude PSBL boundary, to about 1600 km, which is comparable with the value of the inertial radius of ions. This agrees with the scenario of spatial separation of charges and formation of the Hall system of currents in the magnetic reconnection region. The duration of observation of the given current structure was ∼12 min., which points to the quasi-steady-state character of reconnection.     

Biodiversity reduction on contaminated sediments in the sea: contamination or sediment mobility?

Where contaminants in sediments correlate with biodiversity reductions, the contamination may not be the cause. Other physical factors may be responsible, and should be investigated so that any remedial action is directed properly. Two examples are given where unusual sediment mobility caused biodiversity reductions in sediments with elevated trace contaminants.     

Long-term zooplankton dynamics in the Rybinsk Reservoir (1956–2005)

Materials of half-century observations of zooplankton in the Rybinsk Reservoir were used to establish reversible variations in its structure, abundance, and biomass and irreversible variations in the characteristics (trends). Variations with periods of ∼10 and 20 years have the largest effect on the community dynamics. Regression models are presented describing the dependence of zooplankton biomass averaged over May–October on its values in summer months and on the concentrations of chlorophyll a and phytoplankton and hydrothermal characteristics of the water body. Changes in zooplankton community under the effect of eutrophication and de-eutrophication of reservoir ecosystem are discussed.     

Drying climate in Ghana over the period 1960–2005: evidence from the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test at local and regional levels

Abstract

Trends in rainfall series were investigated at 16 stations in Ghana over the period 1960–2005. Time series were first de-correlated using an effective pre-whitening methodology and then submitted to the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test. Field significances were assessed using the regional average Kendall statistic. Although no significant changes were observed in annual rainfall, the analysis reveals: (a) a reduction in the number of wet season days totalling less than 20 mm of rainfall, between latitudes 6° and 9.5°N; (b) a delay (about 0.5 d year^‐1) in the wet season onset at several locations throughout the country; and (c) a lengthening (about 0.1 d year^‐1) of rainless periods during the wet season in the south and centre of Ghana. All these changes, which remained insignificant at more than half of the individual stations, were found to be regionally significant at the 95% confidence level. The results highlight the importance of evaluating regional significance when investigating climate trends.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Lacombe, G., McCartney, M., and Forkuor, G., 2012. Drying climate in Ghana over the period 1960–2005: evidence from the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test at local and regional levels. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1594–1609.