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1.
The measurement of discharge is fundamental in nutrient load estimation. Because of our ability to monitor discharge routinely, it is generally assumed that the associated uncertainty is low. This paper challenges this preconception, arguing that discharge uncertainty should be explicitly taken into account to produce robust statistical analyses. In many studies, paired discharge and chemical datasets are used to calculate ‘true’ loads and used as the benchmark to compare with other load estimates. This paper uses two years of high frequency (daily and sub‐hourly) discharge and nutrient concentration data (nitrate‐N and total phosphorus (TP)) collected at four field sites as part of the Hampshire Avon Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) programme. A framework for estimating observational nutrient load uncertainty was used which combined a flexible non‐parametric approach to characterising discharge uncertainty, with error modelling that allowed the incorporation of errors which were heteroscedastic and temporally correlated. The results showed that the stage–discharge relationships were non‐stationary, and observational uncertainties from ±2 to 25% were recorded when the velocity–area method was used. The variability in nutrient load estimates ranged from 1.1 to 9.9% for nitrate‐N and from 3.3 to 10% for TP when daily laboratory data were used, rising to a maximum of 9% for nitrate‐N and 83% for TP when the sensor data were used. However, the sensor data provided a better representation of the ‘true’ load as storm events are better represented temporally, posing the question: is it more beneficial to have high frequency, lower precision data or lower frequency but higher precision data streams to estimate nutrient flux responses in headwater catchments? Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Multiple segmented rating curves have been proposed to better capture the variability of the physical and hydraulic characteristics of river–floodplain systems. We evaluate the accuracy of one- and two-segmented rating curves by exploiting a large and unique database of direct measurements of stage and discharge data in more than 200 Swedish catchments. Such a comparison is made by explicitly accounting for the potential impact of measurement uncertainty. This study shows that two-segmented rating curves did not fit the data significantly better, nor did they generate fewer errors than one-segmented rating curves. Two-segmented rating curves were found to be slightly beneficial for low flow when there were strong indications of segmentation, but predicted the rating relationship worse in cases of weak indication of segmentation. Other factors were found to have a larger impact on rating curve errors, such as the uncertainty of the discharge measurements and the type of regression method.  相似文献   

3.
River discharge values, estimated using a rating curve, are subject to both random and epistemic errors. We present a new likelihood function, the ‘Voting Point’ likelihood that accounts for both error types and enables generation of multiple possible multisegment power‐law rating curve samples that aim to represent the total uncertainty. The rating curve samples can be used for subsequent discharge analysis that needs total uncertainty estimation, e.g. regionalisation studies or calculation of hydrological signatures. We demonstrate the method using four catchments with diverse rating curve error characteristics, where epistemic uncertainty sources include weed growth, scour and redeposition of the bed gravels in a braided river, and unconfined high flows. The results show that typically, the posterior rating curve distributions include all of the gauging points and succeed in representing the spread of discharge values caused by epistemic rating errors. We aim to provide a useful method for hydrology practitioners to assess rating curve, and hence discharge, uncertainty that is easily applicable to a wide range of catchments and does not require prior specification of the particular types and causes of epistemic error at the gauged location. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
For various hydrological applications such as flood control projects, a knowledge of stage–discharge relationship is of particular interest to river engineers. Stage–discharge curves in compound channels cannot be easily predicted in comparison with single channels due to their 3D characteristics of flow. In this paper, the concept of cross‐sectional isovel contours is used for estimation of stage–discharge curves in compound channels. The multivariate Newton's method is applied to the difference between the observed and estimated data to optimize the exponent values of the governing parameters. The accuracy of the proposed model is tested successfully against available experimental results, which are taken from the Flood Channel Facility (FCF) laboratory. Then the results are compared with the Single and Divided Channel Methods (SCM and DCM, respectively), the Weighted Divided Channel Method (WDCM), the exchange discharge method (EDM), and the Coherence Method (COHM). The average values of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) in discharge estimation based on each referenced section at any level for 6 sections of the experimental cases are within 3.1% and 0.023, respectively. The biggest advantage of the proposed method is its inherent simplicity, which does not need any calibration.  相似文献   

5.
The intersection of the developing topic of rating curve and discharge series uncertainty with the topic of hydrological change detection (e.g., in response to land cover or climatic change) has not yet been well studied. The work herein explores this intersection, with consideration of a long‐term discharge response (1964–2007) for a ~650‐km2 headwater basin of the Mara River in west Kenya, starting with stream rating and daily gauge height data. A rating model was calibrated using Bayesian methods to quantify uncertainty intervals in model parameters and predictions. There was an unknown balance of random and systemic error in rating data scatter (a scenario not likely unique to this basin), which led to an unknown balance of noise and information in the calibrated statistical error model. This had implications on testing for hydrological change. Overall, indications were that shifts in basin's discharge response were rather subtle over the 44‐year period. A null hypothesis for change using flow duration curves (FDCs) from four different 8‐year data intervals could be either accepted or rejected over much of the net flow domain depending on different applications of the statistical error model (each with precedence in the literature). The only unambiguous indication of change in FDC comparisons appeared to be a reduction in lowest baseflow in recent years (flows with >98% exceedance probability). We defined a subjective uncertainty interval based on an intermediate balance of random and systematic error in the rating model that suggested a possibility of more prevalent impacts. These results have relevance to management in the Mara basin and to future studies that might establish linkages to historic land use and climatic factors. The concern about uncertain uncertainty intervals (uncertainty2) extends beyond the Mara and is relevant to testing change where non‐random rating errors may be important and subtle responses are investigated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
We report bedload data and acoustic impulse measurements due to particle impact from the Pitzbach in Austria. Impulse counts can be viewed as a measure of the energy delivered to the bed by moving particles. Impulse counts show a large scatter even for the same discharge and bedload supply. This scatter is due to varying grain size distribution, grain shape, mode of transport of the sediment particles and spatial and temporal distribution of the sediment load. The mean impulse count at given hydraulic conditions may increase or decrease with increasing sediment supply, suggesting that both tools and cover effects are active on the channel bed. Dependent on the local balance between sediment supply and transport capacity, either effect may be dominant at different locations along the cross‐section at the same time. Furthermore, the same bed location may respond to increasing sediment supply as tools‐dominated at some discharges and cover‐dominated at other discharges. Our observations may have implications for modelling of bedrock erosion in landscape evolution models and of bedrock channel morphology. Erosion models that do not incorporate both tools and cover effects are not sufficient to describe observations. Furthermore, a local erosion law cannot in general be used to describe erosion averaged over the channel cross‐section. The changing balance between sediment supply and transport capacity with increasing discharge highlights that a single representative discharge is not sufficient to capture the full erosion dynamics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Studies of the effects of hydrodynamic model dimensionality on simulated flow properties and derived quantities such as aquatic habitat quality are limited. It is important to close this knowledge gap especially now that entire river networks can be mapped at the microhabitat scale due to the advent of point‐cloud techniques. This study compares flow properties, such as depth and velocity, and aquatic habitat quality predicted from pseudo‐2D and fully 2D hydrodynamic modeling. The models are supported by high‐resolution, point‐cloud derived bathymetries, from which close‐spaced cross‐sections were extracted for the 1D modeling, of three morphologically and hydraulically different river systems. These systems range from small low‐gradient meandering pool–riffle to large steep confined plane‐bed rivers. We test the effects of 1D and 2D models on predicted hydraulic variables at cross‐sections and over the full bathymetry to quantify the differences due to model dimensionality and those from interpolation. Results show that streambed features, whose size is smaller than cross‐sectional spacing, chiefly determine the different results of 1D and 2D modeling whereas flow discharge, stream size, morphological complexity and model grid sizes have secondary effects on flow properties and habitat quality for a given species and life stage predicted from 1D and 2D modeling. In general, the differences in hydraulic variables are larger in the bathymetric than in the cross‐sectional analysis, which suggests that some errors are introduced from interpolation of spatially disaggregated simulated variables with a 1D model, instead of model dimensionality 1D or 2D. Flow property differences are larger for velocity than for water surface elevation and depth. Differences in weighted usable area (WUA) derived from 1D and 2D modeling are relatively small for low‐gradient meandering pool–riffle systems, but the differences in the spatial distribution of microhabitats can be considerable although clusters of same habitat quality are spatially comparable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Testing competing conceptual model hypotheses in hydrology is complicated by uncertainties from a wide range of sources, which result in multiple simulations that explain catchment behaviour. In this study, the limits of acceptability uncertainty analysis approach used to discriminate between 78 competing hypotheses in the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors for 24 catchments in the UK. During model evaluation, we test the model's ability to represent observed catchment dynamics and processes by defining key hydrologic signatures and time step‐based metrics from the observed discharge time series. We explicitly account for uncertainty in the evaluation data by constructing uncertainty bounds from errors in the stage‐discharge rating curve relationship. Our study revealed large differences in model performance both between catchments and depending on the type of diagnostic used to constrain the simulations. Model performance varied with catchment characteristics and was best in wet catchments with a simple rainfall‐runoff relationship. The analysis showed that the value of different diagnostics in constraining catchment response and discriminating between competing conceptual hypotheses varies according to catchment characteristics. The information content held within water balance signatures was found to better capture catchment dynamics in chalk catchments, where catchment behaviour is predominantly controlled by seasonal and annual changes in rainfall, whereas the information content in the flow‐duration curve and time‐step performance metrics was able to better capture the dynamics of rainfall‐driven catchments. We also investigate the effect of model structure on model performance and demonstrate its (in)significance in reproducing catchment dynamics for different catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Infiltration along ephemeral channels plays an important role in groundwater recharge in arid regions. A model is presented for estimating spatial variability of seepage due to streambed heterogeneity along channels based on measurements of streamflow‐front velocities in initially dry channels. The diffusion‐wave approximation to the Saint‐Venant equations, coupled with Philip's equation for infiltration, is connected to the groundwater model MODFLOW and is calibrated by adjusting the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the channel bed. The model is applied to portions of two large water delivery canals, which serve as proxies for natural ephemeral streams. Estimated seepage rates compare well with previously published values. Possible sources of error stem from uncertainty in Manning's roughness coefficients, soil hydraulic properties and channel geometry. Model performance would be most improved through more frequent longitudinal estimates of channel geometry and thalweg elevation, and with measurements of stream stage over time to constrain wave timing and shape. This model is a potentially valuable tool for estimating spatial variability in longitudinal seepage along intermittent and ephemeral channels over a wide range of bed slopes and the influence of seepage rates on groundwater levels. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
The numerical model COUP 2D simulates the hydrological coupling between hillslopes and the river channel during a rainfall event. In order to test the numerical model, a 1:100 scaled laboratory flume which was modified to incorporate lateral hillslope elements, was used to run a series of experiments in which hillslope angle, channel angle, hillslope discharge and channel discharge were the varying parameters. Overall, there were 18 different experimental configurations with three replicates carried out for each condition, leading to a total of 54 experiments. These conditions were then used to parameterize and run COUP 2D. Internal model outputs of flow depth and flow velocity at four cross‐sections in the channel were compared to the measurements made in the physical model for the same parameter conditions. Statistical comparisons of the measured and modelled data were carried out for each experiment and across all experiments, using two goodness‐of‐fit measures—root mean square error and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency—in order to assess the performance of the model over an entire simulation as well as over all the simulations. The main effects on the goodness‐of‐fit measures for flow depth of each experimental variable, as well as the interactions between variables, were evaluated using statistical modelling. The results show that the model captures flow‐depth variations in response to changing channel and hillslope parameters. Statistical modelling suggests that the main effects on model error are cross‐section position, channel angle and channel discharge. Significant interactions also occur between all the channel variables and between the channel variables and hillslope discharge. The results of the testing procedure have significant implications for the consideration of different model components and for the interaction between data‐ and model evaluation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The impact of uncertainty in ground elevation on the extent of areas that are inundated due to flooding is investigated. Land surface is represented through a Digital Surface Model (DSM). The effect of uncertainty in DSM is compared to that of the uncertainty due to rainfall. The Monte Carlo method is used to quantify the uncertainty. A typical photogrammetric procedure and conventional maps are used to obtain a reference DSM, later altered to provide DSMs of lower accuracy. Also, data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission are used. Floods are simulated in two stages. In the first stage, flood hydrographs for typical return periods are synthesized using generated storm hyetographs, the Soil Conservation Service–Curve Number method for effective rainfall, and the Soil Conservation Service synthetic unit hydrograph. In the second stage, hydrographs are routed via a one‐dimensional hydraulic model. Uncertainty in DSM is considered only in the second stage. Data from two real‐world basins in Greece are used. To characterize the inundated area, we employ the 90% quantile of the inundation extent and inundation topwidth for peak water level at specific river cross‐sections. For topwidths, apart from point estimates, also interval estimates are acquired using the bootstrap method. The effect of DSM uncertainty is compared to that for rainfall. Low uncertainty in DSM is found to widen the inundated area; whereas, the opposite occurred with high uncertainty. SRTM data proved unsuitable for our test basins and modelling context.  相似文献   

12.
This study investigates the uncertainty in the estimation of the design flood induced by errors in flood data. We initially describe and critically discuss the main sources of uncertainty affecting river discharge data, when they are derived using stage-discharge rating curves. Then, different error structures are used to investigate the effects of flood data errors on design flood estimation. Annual maxima values of river discharge observed on the Po River (Italy) at Pontelagoscuro are used as an example. The study demonstrates that observation errors may have a significant impact on the uncertainty of design floods, especially when the rating curve is affected by systematic errors.  相似文献   

13.
Radar estimates of rainfall are being increasingly applied to flood forecasting applications. Errors are inherent both in the process of estimating rainfall from radar and in the modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation. The study aims at building a framework for the assessment of uncertainty that is consistent with the limitations of the model and data available and that allows a direct quantitative comparison between model predictions obtained by using radar and raingauge rainfall inputs. The study uses radar data from a mountainous region in northern Italy where complex topography amplifies radar errors due to radar beam occlusion and variability of precipitation with height. These errors, together with other error sources, are adjusted by applying a radar rainfall estimation algorithm. Radar rainfall estimates, adjusted and not, are used as an input to TOPMODEL for flood simulation over the Posina catchment (116 km2). Hydrological model parameter uncertainty is explicitly accounted for by use of the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation). Statistics are proposed to evaluate both the wideness of the uncertainty limits and the percentage of observations which fall within the uncertainty bounds. Results show the critical importance of proper adjustment of radar estimates and the use of radar estimates as close to ground as possible. Uncertainties affecting runoff predictions from adjusted radar data are close to those obtained by using a dense raingauge network, at least for the lowest radar observations available. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The debris deposits at the bottom of very steep natural channels and streams in high mountain areas can be mobilized by runoff, triggering a water–sediment mixture flow known as debris flow. The routing of debris flow through human settlements can cause damage to civil structures and loss of human lives. The prediction of such an event, or the runoff discharge that triggers it, assumes an interest in risk analyses and the planning of defence measures. The object of this study is to find a method to determine the critical runoff value that triggers debris flow as a result of channel‐bed failure. Historical and rainfall data on 30 debris flows that occurred in six watersheds of the Dolomites (north‐eastern Italian Alps) were collected from different sources. Field investigations at the six sites, together with the hydrologic response to the rainfalls that triggered the events, were performed to obtain a realistic scenario of the formation of the debris flow there occurred. Field observations include a survey along the channel of the triggering reach of debris flow, with measurements of the channel slope and cross‐section and sampling of debris deposits for grain size distribution. Simulated runoff discharge values based on the rainfall recorded by pluviometers were then compared with values obtained through experimental criteria on the initiation and formation of debris flow by bed failure. The results are discussed to provide a plausible physical‐based method for the prediction of the triggering of debris flow by channel‐bed failure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Palaeoflood reconstructions based on stage evidence are typically conducted in data‐poor field settings. Few opportunities exist to calibrate the hydraulic models used to estimate discharge from this evidence. Consequently, an important hydraulic model parameter, the roughness coefficient (e.g. Manning's n), is typically estimated by a range of approximate techniques, such as ‘visual estimation’ and semi‐empirical equations. These techniques contribute uncertainty to resulting discharge estimates, especially where the study reach exhibits sensitivity in the discharge–Manning's n relation. We study this uncertainty within a hydraulic model for a large flood of known discharge on the Mae Chaem River, northern Thailand. Comparison of the ‘calibrated’ Manning's n with that obtained from semi‐empirical equations indicates that these underestimate roughness. Substantial roughness elements in the extra‐channel zone, inundated during large events, contribute significant additional sources of flow resistance that are captured neither by the semi‐empirical equations, nor by existing models predicting stage–roughness variations. This bedrock channel exhibits a complex discharge–Manning's n relation, and reliable estimates of the former are dependent upon realistic assignment of the latter. Our study demonstrates that a large recent flood can provide a valuable opportunity to constrain this parameter, and this is illustrated when we model a palaeoflood event in the same reach, and subsequently examine the magnitude–return period consequences of discharge uncertainty within a flood frequency analysis, which contributes its own source of uncertainty. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

The SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657.  相似文献   

17.
《国际泥沙研究》2020,35(2):203-216
Accurate evaluation and prediction of bedload transport are crucial in studies of fluvial hydrodynamic characteristics and river morphology.This paper presents a one-dimensional numerical model based on the one-dimensional lateral distribution method(1 D-LDM) and six classic bedload transport formulae that can be used to simulate hydrodynamic characteristics and bedload transport discharge in cross sections.Two gravel-bed rivers,i.e.the Danube River located approximately 70 km downstream from Bratislava in Slovakia and the Tolten River in south of Chile are used as examples.In the 1 D-LDM,gravity,bed shear stress,turbulent diffusion,and secondary flow are included to allow for accurate predictions of flow velocity and consequently bed shear stress in the cross sections.Six classic formulae were applied to evaluate the non-dimensional bedload transport rate,and the bedload transport discharge through a river cross section is obtained by integrating the bedload transport rate over the width of the cross section.The results show that the root mean square error(RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) of velocity and water discharge were less than 8% of the observed magnitude,while the correlation coefficient between model predictions and observations was close to unity.The formulae proposed by Ashida and Michiue(1972),in which particle collision with the bed is taken into account,and by Camenen and Larson(2005),which allows for yielding a non-zero bedload transport rate even when the bed shear stress is smaller than the critical bed shear stress value,appeared to be more appropriate for predicting the observed bedload transport rate in the studied cross sections of two gravel-bed rivers.If non-uniform sediment mixtures were considered,the bedload transport discharge through a cross-section could change considerably by up to 22.5% of the observed magnitude.The relations proposed by Ashida and Michiue(1972) and Egiazaroff(1965) for parameterizing the hiding factor yielded more realistic model predictions in comparison with observations for the measured data set collected for the Tolten River,while the one proposed by Wilcock and Crowe(2003) performs the best for the data set measured for the Danube River.  相似文献   

18.
Rills caused by run‐off concentration on erodible hillslopes have very irregular profiles and cross‐section shapes. Rill erosion directly depends on the hydraulics of flow in the rills, which may differ greatly from hydraulics of flow in larger and regular channels. In this paper, a recently theoretically deduced rill flow resistance equation, based on a power–velocity profile, was tested experimentally on plots of varying slopes (ranging from 9% to 26%) in which mobile and fixed bed rills were incised. Initially, measurements of flow velocity, water depth, cross‐section area, wetted perimeter, and bed slope, carried out in 320 reaches of mobile bed rills and in 165 reaches of fixed rills, were used for calibrating the theoretical flow resistance equation. Then the relationship between the velocity profile parameter Γ, the channel slope, and the flow Froude number was separately calibrated for the mobile bed rills and for the fixed ones. The measurements carried out in both conditions (fixed and mobile bed rills) confirmed that the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor can be accurately estimated using the proposed theoretical approach. For mobile bed rills, the data were supportive of the slope independence hypothesis of velocity, due to the feedback mechanism, stated by Govers. The feedback mechanism was able to produce quasicritical flow conditions. For fixed bed rills, obtained by fixing the rill channel, by a glue, at the end of the experimental run with a mobile bed rill, the slope independence of the flow velocity measurements was also detected. Therefore, an experimental run carried out by a rill bed fixed after modelling flow action is useful to detect the feedback mechanism. Finally, the analysis showed that, for the investigated conditions, the effect of sediment transport on the flow resistance law can be considered negligible respect to the grain roughness effect.  相似文献   

19.
Accurate stream discharge measurements are important for many hydrological studies. In remote locations, however, it is often difficult to obtain stream flow information because of the difficulty in making the discharge measurements necessary to define stage‐discharge relationships (rating curves). This study investigates the feasibility of defining rating curves by using a fluid mechanics‐based model constrained with topographic data from an airborne LiDAR scanning. The study was carried out for an 8m‐wide channel in the boreal landscape of northern Sweden. LiDAR data were used to define channel geometry above a low flow water surface along the 90‐m surveyed reach. The channel topography below the water surface was estimated using the simple assumption of a flat streambed. The roughness for the modelled reach was back calculated from a single measurment of discharge. The topographic and roughness information was then used to model a rating curve. To isolate the potential influence of the flat bed assumption, a ‘hybrid model’ rating curve was developed on the basis of data combined from the LiDAR scan and a detailed ground survey. Whereas this hybrid model rating curve was in agreement with the direct measurements of discharge, the LiDAR model rating curve was equally in agreement with the medium and high flow measurements based on confidence intervals calculated from the direct measurements. The discrepancy between the LiDAR model rating curve and the low flow measurements was likely due to reduced roughness associated with unresolved submerged bed topography. Scanning during periods of low flow can help minimize this deficiency. These results suggest that combined ground surveys and LiDAR scans or multifrequency LiDAR scans that see ‘below’ the water surface (bathymetric LiDAR) could be useful in generating data needed to run such a fluid mechanics‐based model. This opens a realm of possibility to remotely sense and monitor stream flows in channels in remote locations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Alluvial gullies are often formed in dispersible sodic soils along steep banks of incised river channels. Field data collected by Shellberg et al. (Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 38: 1765–1778, 2013) from a gully outlet in northern Australia showed little hysteresis between water discharge and fine (<63 µm) and coarse (>63 µm) suspended sediment, indicating transport‐limited rather than source‐limited conditions. The major source of the fine (silt/clay) component was the sodic soils of upstream gully scarps, and the coarser (sand) component was sourced locally from channel bed material. In this companion paper at the same study site, a new method was developed for combining the settling velocity characteristics of these two sediment source components to estimate the average settling velocity of the total suspended sediment. This was compared to the analysis of limited sediment samples collected during flood conditions. These settling velocity data were used in the steady‐state transport limit theory of Hairsine and Rose (Water Resources Research 28: 237–243, 245–250, 1992) that successfully predicted field data of concentrations and loads at a cross‐section, regardless of the complexity of transport‐limited upstream sources (sheet erosion, scalds, rills, gullies, mass failure, bank and bed erosion, other disturbed areas). The analysis required calibration of a key model parameter, the fraction of total stream power (F ≈ 0.025) that is effective in re‐entraining sediment. Practical recommendations are provided for the prediction of sediment loads from other alluvial gullies in the region with similar hydrogeomorphic conditions, using average stream power efficiency factors for suspended silt/clay (Fw ≈ 0.016) and sand (Fs ≈ 0.038) respectively, but with no requirement for field data on sediment concentrations. Only basic field data on settling velocity characteristics from soil samples, channel geometry measurements, estimates of water velocity and discharge, and associated error margins are needed for transport limit theory predictions of concentration and load. This theory is simpler than that required in source‐limited situations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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