Erratum: Climate change impacts–throwing the dice? Günter Blöschl and Alberto Montanari

The original article to which this Erratum refers was published in Hydrological Processes 2010: 25: 374–381     

Climate change and the oceans – What does the future hold?

The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO₂ is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing.     

The performance of benthic indicators of ecological change in Adriatic coastal lagoons: throwing the baby with the water?

The ecological quality of 127 stations from six Adriatic coastal lagoons was assessed using a suite of biotic indices: H', d, 1-lambda', Delta(*), Delta(+), W, AMBI, BOPA and FINE. The analysis indicated the difficulties in deriving and using the existing indices from benthic communities in highly variable environmental conditions in coastal lagoons. Different metrics rendered different results: the use of H' resulted in the classification of all stations as "Moderate/Poor/Bad", whereas BOPA classified the majority of the stations as "Good/High". Using Delta(+), most of the stations resulted as "Not anthropogenically impacted", while the W-statistics gave 82 stations as "Undisturbed" and 45 as "Moderately/Grossly disturbed". AMBI classified 55 stations as "High/Good" and 72 as "Moderate/Poor/Bad", whereas those were 32 and 95 with FINE, respectively. The latter, which was developed just for Italian coastal lagoons, was the most conservative among the indices studied. Yet, it showed the highest correlation with the species/abundance matrix. Using indices developed for coastal waters in lagoons can give the distorted indication that the water body is degraded, when it might be just a natural, low diversity, high abundance community, i.e. a lagoonal community. Moreover, the outcome of the use of a certain index has a financial dimension such that lagoons misclassified as being "poor status" will then require expensive remediation measures. For the lagoons studied, there is probably an adequate quality and quantity of benthic data available for making management decisions, but this study highlights the limits of the existing indices for lagoonal ecosystems. The challenge for the next future is to couple long term conservation of the natural environment with the highly productive activities carried out in lagoonal ecosystems.     

Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts, with a particular focus on groundwater aspects from a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. Our results are similar to those from surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates the results for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we found uncertainties related to geological conceptualization and hydrological model discretization to be dominant for projections of well field capture zones, while the climate model uncertainty here is of minor importance. How to reduce the uncertainties on climate change impact projections related to groundwater is discussed, with an emphasis on the potential for reducing climate model biases through the use of fully coupled climate–hydrology models.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned     

Climate change regionalization in China(1961–2010)

Since climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society, climate change has been a global issue attracting great attentions of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. Existing climate regionalization in China aims to characterize the regional differences in climate based on years of the mean value of different climate indexes. However, with the accelerating climate change nowadays, existing climate regionalization cannot represent the regional difference of climate change, nor can it reflect the disasters and environmental risks incurred from climate changes. This paper utilizes the tendency value and fluctuation value of temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2010 to identify the climate change quantitatively, and completes the climate change regionalization in China(1961–2010) with county administrative regionalization as the unit in combination with China's terrain feature. Level-I regionalization divides China's climate change(1961–2010) into five tendency zones based on the tendency of temperature and precipitation, which are respectively Northeast China-North China warm-dry trend zone, East China-Central China wet-warm trend zone, Southwest China-South China dry-warm trend zone, Southeast Tibet-Southwest China wet-warm trend zone, and Northwest China-Qinghai-Tibet Plateau warm-wet trend zone; level-II regionalization refers to fourteen fluctuation regions based on level-I regionalization according to the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation.     

Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO₂, solar total irradiance (S_tot) and solar UV (S_UV). The response is largest in the S_UV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO₂ or S_tot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.     

How did the suspended sediment load change in the North Caucasus during the Anthropocene?

Quantifying and understanding catchment sediment fluxes is crucial both from a scientific and environmental management perspective. To deepen the understanding of landuse impacts and climate change on sediment load, we explore factors controlling the suspended sediment load formation in the Northern Caucasus during the Anthropocene. We examine how sediment flux of various river basins with different land-use/landcover and glacier cover changes during the 1925–2018 period. Our analysis is based on observed mean annual suspended sediment discharges (SSD, kg s⁻¹) and annual fluxes (SSL, t year⁻¹) from 33 gauging stations of The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Russia). SSL series have been analysed to detect statistically significant changes during the 1925–2018 period. The occurrence of abrupt change points in SSD was investigated using cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts. We found that SSL has decreased by −1.17% per year on average at most gauges. However, the decline was not linear. Several transition years are expected in the region increasing trends from the 1950s and decreasing trends from 1988 to 1994. Correlation analyses showed that variation in SSL trend values is mainly explained by gauging station altitude, differences in landuse (i.e. the fraction of cropland), and catchment area. Nonetheless, more accurate quantifications of SSL trend values and more refined characterizations of the catchments regarding (historical) landuse, soil types/lithology, weather conditions, and topography may reveal other tendencies.     

Without power? Landslide inventories in the face of climate change

Projected scenarios of climate change involve general predictions about the likely changes to the magnitude and frequency of landslides, particularly as a consequence of altered precipitation and temperature regimes. Whether such landslide response to contemporary or past climate change may be captured in differing scaling statistics of landslide size distributions and the erosion rates derived thereof remains debated. We test this notion with simple Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations of statistical models commonly used to characterize empirical landslide size distributions. Our results show that significant changes to total volumes contained in such inventories may be masked by statistically indistinguishable scaling parameters, critically depending on, among others, the size of the largest of landslides recorded. Conversely, comparable model parameter values may obscure significant, i.e. more than twofold, changes to landslide occurrence, and thus inferred rates of hillslope denudation and sediment delivery to drainage networks. A time series of some of Earth's largest mass movements reveals clustering near and partly before the last glacial‐interglacial transition and a distinct step‐over from white noise to temporal clustering around this period. However, elucidating whether this is a distinct signal of first‐order climate‐change impact on slope stability or simply coincides with a transition from short‐term statistical noise to long‐term steady‐state conditions remains an important research challenge. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Increasing annual runoff—broadleaf or coniferous forests?

According to widely held belief, annual evapotranspiration (ET) for broadleaf forests is less than that for coniferous forests, resulting in higher annual runoff for broadleaf forests. We processed 82 catchment runoff and 126 interception loss data from temperate regions and found that although the belief is valid under conditions of broadleaf deciduous forests and high winter precipitation (e.g. the United States), it is invalid under conditions of broadleaf evergreen forests (e.g. New Zealand) or low winter precipitation (e.g. Japan). Thus, forest management policies based on this belief should be reconsidered on the basis of our results for regions with broadleaf evergreen forests or low winter precipitation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio‐temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end‐member — How does it affect hydrograph separation results?

Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km², glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.     

Predictability in dice motion: how does it differ from hydro-meteorological processes?

ABSTRACT

From ancient times dice have been used to denote randomness. A dice throw experiment is set up in order to examine the predictability of the die orientation through time using visualization techniques. We apply and compare a deterministic-chaotic model and a stochastic model and we show that both suggest predictability in die motion that deteriorates with time, just as in hydro-meteorological processes. Namely, a die’s trajectory can be predictable for short horizons and unpredictable for long ones. Furthermore, we show that the same models can be applied, with satisfactory results, to high temporal resolution time series of rainfall intensity and wind speed magnitude, occurring during mild and strong weather conditions. The difference among the experimental and two natural processes is in the time length of the high-predictability window, which is of the order of 0.1 s, 10 min and 1 h for dice, rainfall and wind processes, respectively.     

How do hydrologic modeling decisions affect the portrayal of climate change impacts?

End users face a range of subjective decisions when evaluating climate change impacts on hydrology, but the importance of these decisions is rarely assessed. In this paper, we evaluate the implications of hydrologic modelling choices on projected changes in the annual water balance, monthly simulated processes, and signature measures (i.e. metrics that quantify characteristics of the hydrologic catchment response) under a future climate scenario. To this end, we compare hydrologic changes computed with four different model structures – whose parameters have been obtained using a common calibration strategy – with hydrologic changes computed with a single model structure and parameter sets from multiple options for different calibration decisions (objective function, local optima, and calibration forcing dataset). Results show that both model structure selection and the parameter estimation strategy affect the direction and magnitude of projected changes in the annual water balance, and that the relative effects of these decisions are basin dependent. The analysis of monthly changes illustrates that parameter estimation strategies can provide similar or larger uncertainties in simulations of some hydrologic processes when compared with uncertainties coming from model choice. We found that the relative effects of modelling decisions on projected changes in catchment behaviour depend on the signature measure analysed. Furthermore, parameter sets with similar performance, but located in different regions of the parameter space, provide very different projections for future catchment behaviour. More generally, the results obtained in this study prompt the need to incorporate parametric uncertainty in multi‐model frameworks to avoid an over‐confident portrayal of climate change impacts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?

This Commentary draws together recently published work relating to the relationship between climate change and geomorphology to address the surprising observation that geomorphic work seems to have had little impact upon the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. However, recent papers show that methodological innovation has allowed geomorphological reconstruction over timescales highly relevant to late 20th century and 21st century climate change. In turn, these and other developments are allowing links to be made between climatic variability and geomorphology, to begin to predict ‘geomorphic futures’ and also to appreciate the role that geomorphic processes play in the flux of carbon and the carbon cycle. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global Climate Change — the Latest Assessment: Does Global Warming Warrant a Health Warning?

Global climate change is a qualitatively distinct, and very significant, addition to the spectrum of environmental health hazards encountered by humankind. Historically, environmental health concerns have focused on toxicological or microbiological risks to health from local exposures. However, the scale of environmental health hazards is today increasing; indeed, the burgeoning human impact on the environment has begun to alter global biophysical systems (such as the climate system). As a consequence, a range of larger-scale environmental hazards to human population health has emerged. This includes the health risks posed by climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, loss of biodiversity, stresses on terrestrial and ocean food-producing systems, changes in hydrological systems and the supplies of freshwater, and the global spread of persistent organic pollutants. Appreciation of this scale and type of influence on human health entails an ecological perspective — a perspective that recognises that the foundations of long-term good health in populations reside in the continued stability and functioning of the biosphere's "life-supporting" ecological and physical systems. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Features of the Earth’s Solar Climate Changes in the Present Epoch

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Calculated insolations of the Earth are analyzed. The main trends in the modern solar climate change are identified: increased latitudinal contrast and smoothed seasonal...     

Catchment transit times and landscape controls—does scale matter?

Mean transit times (MTTs) can give useful insights into the internal processes of hydrological systems. However, our understanding of how they vary and scale remains unclear. We used MTT estimates obtained from δ¹⁸O data from 20, mostly nested, contrasting catchments in North East Scotland, ranging from 1 to 1700 km². The estimated MTTs ranged between 270 and 1170 days and were used to test a previously developed multiple linear regression (MLR) model for MTT prediction based on metrics of soil cover, landscape organization and climate. We show that the controls on MTT identified by the MLR model hold with the independent data from these 20 sites and that the MLR can be used to predict MTT in ungauged montane catchments. The dominant controls also remain unchanged over four orders of magnitude of catchment size, suggesting no major change of dominant flow paths and mixing processes at larger scales. This is consistent with the fact that only the variance of MTT, rather than MTT, showed a scaling relationship. MTTs appeared to converge with increasing catchment scale, apparently due to the integration of heterogeneous headwater responses in larger downstream catchments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.