Emergency countermeasures against marine disasters in Qingdao City on the basis of scenario analysis

Storm surge, sea wave, sea ice, red tide and harmful marine creature bloom are main marine disasters occurring in the coast and offshore areas of Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China. Marine disasters mentioned above can be divided into five categories, namely, marine meteorological disasters, marine hydrological disasters, marine geological disasters, marine ecological disasters and man-made marine disasters. Over the past century, the marine disasters in the coast and offshore areas of Qingdao City have caused great economic losses and casualties. In recent years, some problems still exist in emergency management against marine disasters in Qingdao City, such as inaccurate predictions of disasters, untimely early warning and lack of social participation in the emergency management. On the basis of scenario analysis, the authors try to predict different possible scenarios of marine disasters at different early warning levels and propose some optimized emergency countermeasures against marine disaster in Qingdao City. Results of our research can provide a theoretical basis for the revision and improvement of emergency plans and thus guarantee timely and effective emergency management actions against marine disasters in Qingdao City.     

Sea ice disaster risk assessment index system based on the life cycle of marine engineering

Based on the classification results of marine structure accidents induced by sea ice, the risk assessment index system of sea ice disasters was established. The possibility coefficient of risks was proposed based on risk factors of sea ice disasters, including sea ice conditions, ice risk status, ice resistance in the design phase, the current defense ability in the operation phase, and management behaviors in the freezing period. The severity index should be determined according to the affected scope, the distribution of affected personnel, and the monitoring ability in emergency. According to the case study and expert evaluation method, the scores and levels of sea ice disaster risk assessment indices were determined. Finally, the sea ice disaster risks of two offshore oil platforms and a coastal nuclear power plant were assessed.

     

基于栅格径流汇流模拟的西藏林芝市泥石流灾害预警模型初探

西藏林芝市泥石流灾害频发,亟需建立泥石流灾害预警模型,预测林芝市泥石流灾害可能发生的区域,减少泥石流灾害导致的损失。文章提出了一种基于栅格径流汇流的林芝市泥石流灾害预警模型,从栅格像元尺度上模拟流域各位置上的水深,以提高泥石流预警的空间针对性。该模型将泥石流致灾因子分为背景因子和激发因子。通过林芝市裸岩率、河床纵比降等因子的逻辑回归,获取林芝市泥石流灾害概率,作为泥石流预警模型的背景因子;引入栅格径流汇流模型,以站点降水和雪水当量为模型的水量输入,模拟预警时段内的流域各位置上的模型水深,作为泥石流预警模型的激发因子。利用二元逻辑回归的方法计算背景因子和激发因子的权重,建立泥石流预警模型。利用2011—2020年18次历史灾害对模型进行验证,落入预警区内的灾害点占比64.4%,预警精度较高,对于林芝市泥石流灾害预警具有一定的指导意义。     

基于“3S”技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在我国应用现状

中国具有地质构造复杂,地貌类型多样,山区面积比例高等特点。近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,大量重大工程建设、不合理的资源开发和人类活动,导致各类地质灾害频发,严重影响了民生改善和小康社会建设进程,为地质灾害风险管控带来了挑战。开展地质灾害监测预警研究,能够为灾害风险管控、监测预警、防治减灾工作提供重要的科学依据。本文由中国地质灾害监测预警研究入手,着重分析讨论了我国地质灾害发育概况、监测预警既有成果和研究现状。然后从地质灾害监测预警的主要内容、主要技术方法和主要监测预警模型的发展和现状三个方面,讨论了"3S"技术在地质灾害监测预警中的研究现状和实践应用;最后详细讨论了目前基于"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警平台在三峡库区和国家防灾减灾工作中的应用情况。本文最终结论认为,"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在各行业防灾减灾工作中的应用已日趋成熟,未来的地质灾害监测预警系统将以"3S"技术为基础,集观测、研究、风险评估、预报预警、预防治理为一体,有机结合各相关学科和大数据、人工智能、互联网+技术,通过对地质灾害的过程进行仿真模拟,分析诱发灾害的因素和发生强度,提高地质灾害预报的时间、地点、发生强度的准确性。     

吉林省通化市地质灾害气象预报预警方法介绍

地质灾害是吉林省通化市较为严重的自然灾害之一。本文介绍了吉林省通化市地质灾害气象预报预警方法,通过建立预报预警模型,然后制作预警预报产品,并在汛期及时发布,对吉林省通化市地质灾害预报起到了较好的效果。     

Modelling coincidence and dependence of flood hazard phenomena in a Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) framework: case study in Le Havre

Many coastal urban areas and many coastal facilities must be protected against pluvial and marine floods, as their location near the sea is necessary. As part of the development of a Probabilistic Flood Hazard Approach (PFHA), several flood phenomena have to be modelled at the same time (or with an offset time) to estimate the contribution of each one. Modelling the combination and the dependence of several flooding sources is a key issue in the context of a PFHA. As coastal zones in France are densely populated, marine flooding represents a natural hazard threatening the coastal populations and facilities in several areas along the shore. Indeed, marine flooding is the most important source of coastal lowlands inundations. It is mainly generated by storm action that makes sea level rise above the tide. Furthermore, when combined with rainfall, coastal flooding can be more consequent. While there are several approaches to analyse and characterize marine flooding hazard with either extreme sea levels or intense rainfall, only few studies combine these two phenomena in a PFHA framework. Thus this study aims to develop a method for the analysis of a combined action of rainfall and sea level. This analysis is performed on the city of Le Havre, a French urban city on the English Channel coast, as a case study. In this work, we have used deterministic materials for rainfall and sea level modelling and proposed a new approach for estimating the probabilities of flooding.

     

基于ArcGIS Server的天津市突发性地质灾害信息网络发布平台建设设计与实现

天津市为进一步加强地质灾害防治工作,提出构建地质灾害监测预警信息共享平台,是防灾减灾工作的关键环节。本文探讨了基于网络技术、GIS技术、数据库技术并结合地质环境专业知识,建立集数据发布、管理、查询、共享等为一体的天津市突发性地质灾害数据网络发布与共享平台的设计过程,并以天津市突发性地质灾害发育特征、群测群防、预警预报、巡查与监测信息为数据源,实现了天津市突发性地质灾害信息网络发布平台的建设,进而为政府、社会公众等进行地质灾害工程治理、搬迁避让和应急处置提供依据。     

Distribution of potential geological hazards and control factors in Qingdao offshore,China

Engineering construction actively occurs in coastal zones, and these areas have numerous potential geological hazard factors. Since 2009, the development of geological surveys in sea areas has promoted extensive geophysical surveys in Qingdao offshore. In the present study, the types and distribution of potential geological hazard factors were systematically revealed using sub-bottom profile data, side-scan sonar data, and single-channel seismic data, among others. Based on previous research findings, the potential geological hazard factors are classified, and control factors in Qingdao offshore are discussed. The research results show that the primary potential geological hazards include active faults, buried paleo channels, shallow gas, irregular bedrock, eroded gullies, estuary deltas, tidal sand ridges, and seawater intrusion. In addition, neotectonic movement, sea level changes and sedimentary dynamic processes were the main factors that affected the distribution of geological hazards in Qingdao offshore.©2019 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Risk evaluation and warning threshold of unstable slope using tilting sensor array

Slope monitoring and early warning systems are a promising approach toward mitigating landslide-induced disasters. Many large-scale sediment disasters result in the destruction of infrastructure and loss of human life. The mitigation of vulnerability to slope and landslide hazards will benefit significantly from early warning alerts. The authors have been developing monitoring technology that uses a micro-electro-mechanical systems tilt sensor array that detects the precursory movement of vulnerable slopes and informs the issuance of emergency caution and warning alerts. In this regard, the determination of alarm thresholds is very important. Although previous studies have investigated the recording of threshold values by an extensometer which installation of an extensometer at appropriate sites is also difficult. The authors prefer tilt sensors and have proposed a novel threshold for the tilt angle, which was validated in this study. This threshold has an interesting similarity to previously reported viscous models. Additionally, multi-point monitoring has recently emerged and allows for many sensors to be deployed at vulnerable slopes without disregarding the slope’s precursory local behavior. With this new technology, the detailed spatial and temporal variation of the behavior of vulnerable slopes can be determined as the displacement proceeds toward failure.

     

基于防治地质灾害四大体系编制地质灾害防治规划——以陕西省铜川市为例

根据《国务院关于加强地质灾害防治工作的决定》,围绕调查评价体系、监测预警体系、防治体系和应急体系的建设工作编制铜川市地质灾害防治规划。旨在为铜川市政府指导地质灾害防治工作提供决策依据,也为铜川境内各区县编制地质灾害防治规划提供指导。我国目前尚无地质灾害防治规划技术要求,该文章为我省乃至全国市级地质灾害防治规划的编制提供示范。     

Geological evolution of offshore pollution and its long-term potential impacts on marine ecosystems

Populations and metropolitan centers are accumulated in coastal areas around the world. In view of the fact that they are geographically adjacent to coasts and intense anthropogenic activities, increasing global offshore pollution has been an important worldwide concern over the past several decades and has become a very serious problem that needs to be addressed urgently. Due to offshore pollution, various geological disasters occur in high frequency, including intensified erosion and salinization of coastal soils, frequent geological collapses and landslides and increasing seismic activities. Moreover, offshore pollution shows increasingly serious impacts on the topography and geomorphology of offshore and coastal areas, including coastal degradation, retreating coastlines and estuary delta erosion. Offshore sedimentation processes are strongly influenced by the pH changes of terrestrial discharges, and sedimentary dynamics have become extremely acute and complex due to offshore pollution. The seabed topography and hydrodynamic environment determine the fate and transport of pollutants entering offshore regions. Coastal estuaries, port basins and lagoons that have relatively moderate ocean currents and winds are more likely to accumulate pollutants. Offshore regions and undersea canyons can be used as conduits for transporting pollutants from the continent to the seabed. It is particularly noteworthy that the spatial/temporal distribution of species, community structures, and ecological functions in offshore areas have undergone unprecedented changes in recent decades. Due to increasing offshore pollution, the stable succession and development trend of marine ecosystems has been broken. It is thus important to identify and regulate the quantity, composition and transportation of pollutants in offshore regions and their behavior in marine ecosystems. In particular, crucial actions for stabilizing marine ecosystems, including increasing species and biodiversity, should be implemented to enhance their anti-interference capabilities. This review provides an overview of the current situation of offshore pollution, as well as major trends of pollutant fate and transportation from continent to marine ecosystems, transformation of pollutants in sediments, and their bioaccumulation and diffusion. This study retrospectively reviews the long-term geological evolution of offshore pollution from the perspective of marine geology, and analyses their long-term potential impacts on marine ecosystems. Due to ecological risks associated with pollutants released from offshore sediments, more research on the influence of global offshore pollution based on marine geology is undoubtedly needed.     

青岛崂山地区地质灾害变形监测研究

青岛崂山地区一直都存在着地质灾害及隐患,在旅游业快速发展的带动下,更是加剧了改造环境的人类工程地质活动,这些活动不仅增加了崂山地区滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害及隐患的存在,而且增强了地质灾害的危险程度。近年来随着经济活动的增加,区内地质灾害隐患更是时刻威胁着人类的生命财产安全,并且有些已经造成了生命财产损失,因此有必要对区内开展地质灾害研究,为灾害防治提供科学依据。本文以青岛崂山区为实证,针对旅游背景条件下地质灾害隐患存在区域已经建立的灾害监测系统,对监测数据变化规律进行分析。通过对监测数据和气候因素的变化分析,结果表明气候因素对地质灾害的影响具有差异性,强降雨仍然是灾害引发的重要因素之一。同时旅游业的发展所带来的人类工程活动对地质灾害与隐患的存在有着不可忽视的影响作用。本文为崂山区地质灾害监测预警提供了地质灾害变形方面的参考资料,并为旅游地区的人类活动影响下的地质灾害研究拓宽了新的思路。     

近年来我国海洋灾害损失及防灾减灾策略

我国是世界上海洋灾害最为严重的少数国家之一。近年来，由风暴潮、灾害性海浪、赤潮、海冰、海平面上升等海洋灾害带来的经济损失和人员伤亡越来越严重，其中，风暴潮是影响我国沿海地区最为严重的海洋灾害。通过建立海岸生态防护网、提高沿海地区防潮工程标准、开发海洋灾害监测和预报系统、实行海洋数据资料和信息共享等方法，降低海洋灾害发生的机率，减少海洋灾害损失。     

辽宁省海岸带主要河口区一万年来沉积速率及海平面波动情况

采用钻探手段,通过14C、OSL测年,利用4孔岩心,计算了辽宁省海岸带主要河口区一万年来沉积速率,并分析了海平面波动情况.研究表明,辽宁海岸带长期平均的河口海岸区的沉积速率较低.其中,辽东半岛东北部黄海海岸带鸭绿江平原全新世早期处于剥蚀环境,大洋河平原全新世平均沉积速率为1.4 mm/a,辽东湾北部下辽河平原全新世平均沉积速率为1.52 mm/a,辽西海岸带大凌河冲积扇全新世平均沉积速率为1.87mm/a.全新世Ⅰ海相层或海陆过渡相层总体上表现为一次海侵,与下辽河平原区盘山海侵相对应,但各地段海平面波动情况不尽一致.     

海岸缓冲区规划管理与立法初探——以莱州湾东岸为例

海岸带以陆海相互作用为基本特征,并形成了一系列相关的海岸带地质灾害.海岸及近海区域是海岸带陆海相互作用的关键地区,与人类活动关系密切,减轻海岸带灾害损失和保护海岸带环境的重点应在此设立海岸缓冲区.本文在分析莱州湾东岸海岸带陆海相互作用相关的地质灾害基础上,总结提出了海岸缓冲区规划的地质地貌标志、咸-淡水过渡带标志.对缓冲区规划原则、动态管理及海岸带立法做了初步的分析与探讨.     

Classification of Tsunami and Evacuation Areas

On March 11, 2011, a large earthquake that occurred offshore the north-east coast of Japan generated a large tsunami which devastated extensive areas of the Tohoku coastline. Despite Japan being considered a country well prepared for these types of disasters, large casualties were recorded, with numerous discussions amongst the Japanese coastal engineering community ensuing. As a result, two different levels of tsunamis have been proposed and now recognized in Japan, depending on the frequency of such extreme events. The idea that hard measures can protect the lives of inhabitants of coastal areas has been abandoned, and these measures are only considered to be effective in protecting properties against the more frequent but lower magnitude events. Soft measures should always be used to protect against the loss of lives, and to this respect, the authors of the paper propose the introduction of a Classification of Evacuation Areas, to show which of these should be prioritized by residents as they seek to evacuate.     

2004—2018年北京市突发地质灾害时空分布特点和监测预警状况

本文对北京市规划和自然资源委员会发布的《北京市环境公报》（2004—2018年）和北京市水务局发布的《北京市水资源公报》（2004—2018年）进行了全面梳理,详细分析了近15年来北京市突发地质灾害的类别构成和时空分布规律。北京市突发地质灾害有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流和地面塌陷4种类型,其中崩塌是北京市发生数量最多的地质灾害。北京市突发地质灾害规模较小,分布广泛。大部分灾害发生在汛期,表明北京市突发地质灾害与降雨密切相关。极端强降雨发生后,不同类型灾害集中暴发。近年来,北京市突发地质灾害专业监测预警工作积极开展,并取得一定的成绩,但是相关的科研、监测预警技术等地灾防治工作仍需提升。本文的相关结论来源于真实数据的统计分析,可为北京市突发地质灾害监测预警工作提供客观数据支撑。     

Holocene Paleo‐Geographic Reconstructions of the Ramore Head Area,Northern Ireland,Using Geophysical and Geotechnical Data: Paleo‐Landscape Mapping and Archaeological Implications

We present early to Mid‐Holocene paleo‐geographic reconstructions for the Ramore Head area (Northern Ireland). This coastal area is characterized by Mesolithic occupation (c. 10–6 ka) and preserved early–Mid‐Holocene peats both on‐ and offshore. This paper improves on previous reconstructions by employing a backstripping methodology, which removes accumulated recent deposits from identified buried paleo‐landsurfaces instead of using modern topography as an analogue to the past landscape. Paleo‐landsurfaces are identified offshore from seismic profiles supplemented by cores, and onshore through legacy borehole records. The paleo‐landsurface can be traced offshore to depths of −2 to −19 m and is buried by <5 m of modern sediment. It extends onshore under the coastal town of Portrush and is buried <2.5–10 m below modern ground level. The identified paleo‐landsurface is combined with sea‐level curves from recent Glacio‐Isostatic‐Adjustment models to reconstruct marine transgression during the early–Mid‐Holocene. Comparison is also made with reconstructions based on modern topography. Together, the identified paleo‐landsurfaces and revised reconstructions can assist future site prospection on‐ and offshore and delimit high‐potential areas for heritage management. Revised reconstructions also allow placement of extant archaeology into a more accurate context of landscape change and help develop insights into local‐scale site location patterns.     

A multi-component flood risk assessment in the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean)

Coastal regions are the areas most threatened by natural hazards, with floods being the most frequent and significant threat in terms of their induced impacts, and therefore, any management scheme requires their evaluation. In coastal areas, flooding is a hazard associated with various processes acting at different scales: coastal storms, flash floods, and sea level rise (SLR). In order to address the problem as a whole, this study presents a methodology to undertake a preliminary integrated risk assessment that determines the magnitude of the different flood processes (flash flood, marine storm, SLR) and their associated consequences, taking into account their temporal and spatial scales. The risk is quantified using specific indicators to assess the magnitude of the hazard (for each component) and the consequences in a common scale. This allows for a robust comparison of the spatial risk distribution along the coast in order to identify both the areas at greatest risk and the risk components that have the greatest impact. This methodology is applied on the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain), which can be considered representative of developed areas of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The results obtained characterise this coastline as an area of relatively low overall risk, although some hot spots have been identified with high-risk values, with flash flooding being the principal risk process.     

Potential impacts of extreme storm surges on a low-lying densely populated coastline: the case of Dunkirk area, Northern France

Along the southern coast of the North Sea, a large proportion of the Flemish coastal plain consists of densely populated reclaimed land, much of which lying below mean high tide level. This is particularly the case along the northern coast of France, from Dunkirk to the Belgium border, where the shoreline consists of coastal dunes that protect low-lying reclaimed lands from marine flooding. This area is vulnerable and subject to several risks. Extreme weather conditions could induce strong surges that could cause (1) a shoreline retreat, (2) marine submersion and (3) land and/or urban flooding due to drainage problems of the polders. Highly energetic events such as the November 2007 storm could have had much more severe consequences especially if they occurred at high tide and/or during a spring tide. In the current context of global change and projected sea-level rise, it is then important for the local authorities to take into account the potential impacts and return periods of such events, in order to implement coastal risk policies prevention and management, to reinforce sea defense, increase pumping station efficiency and plan warning systems against marine submersion and polder flooding, which is not the case yet in Northern France.