Target setting and allocation of carbon emissions abatement based on DEA and closest target: an application to 20 APEC economies

Regarded as an effective method for treating the global warming problem, carbon emissions abatement (CEA) allocation has become a hot research topic and has drawn great attention recently. However, the traditional CEA allocation methods generally set efficient targets for the decision-making units (DMUs) using the farthest targets, which neglects the DMUs’ unwillingness to maximize (minimize) some of their inputs (outputs). In addition, the total CEA level is usually subjectively determined without any consideration of the current carbon emission situations of the DMUs. To surmount these deficiencies, we incorporate data envelopment analysis and its closest target technique into the CEA allocation problem. Firstly, a two-stage approach is proposed for setting the optimal total CEA level for the DMUs. Then, another two-stage approach is given for allocating the identified optimal total CEA among the DMUs. Our approach provides more flexibility when setting new input and output targets for the DMUs in CEA allocation. Finally, the proposed approaches are applied for CEA target setting and allocation for 20 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economies.     

A table method for coded target decoding with application to 3-D reconstruction of soil specimens during triaxial testing

Photogrammetry-based method is gaining popularity in many fields. One of the main tasks of photogrammetry is to identify the homologous points in multiple images, which is commonly referred to as the corresponding problem. Coded targets are often placed on the surfaces of the targeted objects and have been widely used as a reliable method for solving the corresponding problem in photogrammetry for high-accuracy three-dimensional measurements. Automated recognition and identification of coded targets are of great importance in the coded target-based photogrammetry. However, false coded target identifications are inevitable due to large perspective distortion, unfavorable lighting conditions, and low-resolution, low-quality images, etc. As a result, manual corrections are often required, which are tedious, prone to error, and inefficient. In this paper, a faster R-CNN-based method has been proposed to recognize coded targets. Then, a table method has been developed to automatically identify and reject the falsely identified coded targets by taking advantages of the prior knowledge of the geometric arrangement of the coded targets. Based on that, missing coded targets can be recovered using either interpolation or extrapolation method. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are validated by implementing it into three-dimensional reconstruction of soil specimens during triaxial testing in geotechnical engineering. Experimental validation results indicate that the proposed method can achieve accurate and efficient coded target recognition and identification.

     

Carbon dioxide emission reduction quota allocation study on Chinese provinces based on two-stage Shapley information entropy model

Chinese central government made a commitment to achieve a 40–45% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) per unit of GDP by 2020 compared with 2005. This targeted reduction was allocated averagely among all the provinces rather than individually according to different situations of each province. Though some research has been done regarding this rough allocation, two shortcomings in previous studies exist: Firstly, CO₂ marginal abatement cost (MAC) has been ignored as one of the CO₂ emission reduction allocation indexes. Secondly, either subjective or objective method has been used rather than comprehensively of both subjective and objective method to calculate the weight of each index in the previous studies. In order to fill the gaps, this paper builds a two-stage Shapley information entropy model to allocate CO₂ emission reduction quota among the Chinese provinces based on the equity and efficiency principles. Afterward, three CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation scenarios have been proposed. The results show that the CO₂ MAC is an indispensable index in CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation, because its value of CO₂ Shapley information entropy is the highest among five indexes. CO₂ emission reduction quota of lower-MAC provinces should be allocated larger, while the quota of higher-MAC provinces should be allocated smaller. Therefore, two suggested policies have been proposed: First, differential CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation should be proposed. Second, synergetic development should be promoted.     

Regional operational and environmental performance evaluation in China: non-radial DEA methodology under natural and managerial disposability

In this article, we used a non-radial DEA under natural and managerial disposability to measure the unified efficiency of 30 administrative regions in China and then evaluated their operational and environmental performances. We proposed the performance progress unified index (PPUI) based on the non-radial DEA methodology in a time horizon under natural and managerial disposability with a crossover to measure the performance variety of DMUs. The results of the unified efficiency measured under natural and managerial disposability showed that both operational and environmental performance in eastern China were the highest among the three regions during 2000–2011. The PPUIs under natural and managerial disposability indicated that the operational and environmental performance of the three regions improved during 2000–2011, and the rate of operational and environmental performance of eastern China was higher than the other two regions.

     

黄河流域区域目标ET的优化配置及调控措施实例研究

针对黄河流域R-ET水资源管理模式中目标ET的优化配置问题,基于多目标遗传算法,构建了水资源总量控制、ET总量控制、粮食用水保障和生态生活用水保障,共4个目标函数及约束条件,设计了遗传算法的相关参数,从而对目标ET的优化配置进行求解。以鄂尔多斯地区为研究实例,对2015年5个方案的目标ET进行优化配置,其中灌溉耕地目标ETIta占到总目标ETta的36%左右;居工地ETJta占到20%左右,不可控目标ETNta占到50%左右。各分项实际ET的分布比例为:不可控ETN为实际ET总值的64.4%,灌溉耕地ETI为33.6%和城乡居工地ETJ为2%,经过对比认为要达到目标ET,削减和调控的重点在不可控ET和耕地ET。根据研究区的实际情况,提出了各分项目标ET的调控重点和相关措施,为下一步实施黄河流域的R-ET水资源管理奠定了必要的基础。     

Indirect carbon emissions from household consumption between China and the USA: based on an input–output model

Based on an input–output model, this paper calculates carbon emissions from household energy consumption in 2002, 2005, 2007, and 2010 between China and the USA. By a comparative analysis of the two countries, the results indicate the following: (1) In terms of the total household indirect carbon emissions, the USA has always been at a higher level than China. However, in recent years, China has presented a rapidly rising trend. In contrast, the USA appears to be experiencing a downward trend. (2) Indirect carbon emissions from USA household consumption mainly focus on Residence; Education, Culture, and Recreation; and Transport and Communications. By comparison, residence accounts for 50 % of China’s household indirect carbon emissions, and seven other sectors are much less than the USA (3) Although the number of China’s household facilities is growing rapidly, the carbon emissions remain at a relatively steady level. (4) In terms of the absolute value of the indirect carbon emissions from housing, the USA maintains a steady 400 million ton, while China increased from 150 to 500 million ton over 2002–2010.

     

Optimal selection of different CCS technologies under CO2 reduction targets

In China, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is recognized as one of the most promising technologies through which to achieve a large reduction in CO₂ emissions in future. The choice among different CCS technologies is critical for large-scale applications. With the aim of developing instructive policy suggestions for CCS development, this study proposed an interval programming model to select the optimal CCS technology among the different CCS technologies available in China. The analysis results indicate that the selection of CO₂ capture technologies should be based on the actual situation of the project and industry being targeted. If the government implements mandatory CO₂ emission reductions, storage in deep saline aquifers is the optimal choice for CO₂ sequestration when oil prices are low and the number of available CO₂ emission permits is large. In contrast, enhanced oil recovery is the optimal choice when oil prices increase and the availability of CO₂ emission permits decreases. It is critical that the government reduce the operating cost and the cost of CO₂ capture in particular.

     

国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析

在整理、介绍主要国际组织、国家、研究机构和一些学者所提出的温室气体减排情景方案、减排目标和设想的基础上,对当前国际上主要的温室气体减排情景方案的温室气体减排目标、大气温室气体浓度目标和温度控制目标进行了归纳、比较和综合分析。研究结果表明：①国际组织和主要国家对温度升高的控制目标总体以2℃为主,即到21世纪末,将大气温度控制在不高于工业革命前2℃的范围内;②国际组织和主要国家的温室气体减排方案一般都倾向于在2050年将大气温室气体浓度控制在450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e（二氧化碳当量）的范围内,但各个方案中有关具体的减排责任分配、减排措施和减排量分歧仍然较大;③在确定温室气体减排目标和减排配额时,国际组织和主要国家一般都按照“共同但有区别”的原则,倾向于为发达国家制定减排目标,但也有个别方案认为发展中国家也应承担量化的减排义务。     

Comparative analysis of the international carbon verification policies and systems

Carbon verification, which can guarantee the reliability and credibility of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data, is the most important part of the daily operations of the carbon emission right trading system. Many international institutions, countries and regions have conducted research on and have practiced carbon verification policies and systems. Through comparative analysis of the international carbon verification policies and systems, they can provide experience for Chinese unified national carbon market to start supporting carbon verification. The paper study concludes that (1) carbon verification systems developed by international institutions focus on the scientific level of verification methods; (2) carbon verification policies and systems issued by important countries and regions draw on International Standardization Organization (ISO)14064 standards based on their national conditions and focus on the scientific level and reasonableness of verification methods; (3) major international experience includes complete verification policies and systems, strict standard verification procedures, diversified verification forms and a focus on key emission sources. Based on the differences in China’s carbon emissions characteristics caused by unbalanced regional economic development and the conditions of carbon verification in seven pilot carbon trading areas, this thesis proposes the following suggestions: pushing forward the establishment of carbon verification policies and systems by accelerating legislation on climate changes; facilitating carbon verification in a coordinated manner; regulating key GHG emission sources; establishing and improving supervision on carbon verification; and intensifying international exchanges and cooperation.

     

Reconstructing granular particles from X-ray computed tomography using the TWS machine learning tool and the level set method

X-ray computed tomography (CT) has emerged as the most prevalent technique to obtain three-dimensional morphological information of granular geomaterials. A key challenge in using the X-ray CT technique is to faithfully reconstruct particle morphology based on the discretized pixel information of CT images. In this work, a novel framework based on the machine learning technique and the level set method is proposed to segment CT images and reconstruct particles of granular geomaterials. Within this framework, a feature-based machine learning technique termed Trainable Weka Segmentation is utilized for CT image segmentation, i.e., to classify material phases and to segregate particles in contact. This is a fundamentally different approach in that it predicts segmentation results based on a trained classifier model that implicitly includes image features and regression functions. Subsequently, an edge-based level set method is applied to approach an accurate characterization of the particle shape. The proposed framework is applied to reconstruct three-dimensional realistic particle shapes of the Mojave Mars Simulant. Quantitative accuracy analysis shows that the proposed framework exhibits superior performance over the conventional watershed-based method in terms of both the pixel-based classification accuracy and the particle-based segmentation accuracy. Using the reconstructed realistic particles, the particle-size distribution is obtained and validated against experiment sieve analysis. Quantitative morphology analysis is also performed, showing promising potentials of the proposed framework in characterizing granular geomaterials.

     

Evaluation of Combined Base Soil Erodibility and Granular Filter Efficiency

Filters managed in zoned dams are designed according to criteria based on the grain size distribution of both filter and eroded soil. However, the constriction size distribution of the filter is the key parameter which governs the filter retention process of flowing eroded particles. To assess the filter efficiency regarding eroded particles, several filters and base soils are tested in a vertical cell with a configuration coupling erosion and filtration processes. For setting the boundary condition of eroded particles at the filter inlet, hole erosion test (HET) was performed on the base soil. The investigation of the evolution of filter behavior shows that the void ratio and the grain shape are of a great influence on filter efficiency. A new approach of filter clogging was proposed by evaluating a damage index which is affected by various parameters such as the ratio D₁₅/d₈₅ and the size of eroded particles. An approach linking the geometrical parameters (damage index) to the hydraulic conductivity leads to an estimation of the filter performance which provides a more quantifiable and realistic criterion. The results indicate that even existing criteria were not met; the tested filters remain efficient as regards to experimental data. An analytical approach based on constrictions size distribution was used and pore reduction was matched with experimental results.

     

Approaches to carbon allowance allocation in China: a computable general equilibrium analysis

China is preparing to develop and implement an emissions trading system in its 13th five-year plan. Allowance allocation is one of the key issues to settle during the establishment of this system. This study applies the China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis model to assess how the allowances should be allocated. Simulation results show that, while impacts on China’s economic development vary according to how allowances are allocated, the negative impacts cannot be mitigated completely, which are between −0.5 and −0.1 % when 5 % of carbon emissions are reduced. In terms of the impacts on the macroeconomy, sectoral output, and capital revenue, results suggest that auctioning the allowances and recycling the revenue to reduce the indirect tax will perform best in alleviating the negative impacts. Meanwhile, impacts of carbon mitigation on international competitiveness can be reduced most in the approach where only key energy- and trade-intensive sectors are able to receive free allowances. However, if citizens’ welfare and quality of life is prioritized, auctioning the allowance and transferring the revenue to households in proportion to their occupation will be the most effective approach; in this case, the negative impacts on rural households’ disposable incomes and welfare will be reduced, and the income gap between rural and urban households will be narrowed.

     

优化的NSGA-Ⅱ方法在马莲河流域水资源综合管理中的应用研究

根据马莲河流域水资源总量极端贫乏、年际年内分配不均、常规水资源量低、水污染问题较严重等特点,利用系统分析理论和优化技术建立了流域的大系统、多目标水资源优化配置模型,并利用优化的NSGA-Ⅱ方法进行求解,得到流域2020年期望水资源配置下的最佳分配方案为:流域总供水量57 086×104m3,工业供水量21 690×104m3(总产值约为144.6亿元),能源基地供水量4 329×104m3(总产值约为346.32万元),农业供水量20 840×104m3,生活供水量9 452×104m3,生态供水量811×104m3。对比期望方案供水量增加了6 710×104m3,综合缺水率减少了11.41%。并根据预测的流域的分配方案和预测的流域需水量,进行了流域的水资源平衡分析,通过平衡分析的结果进行流域的综合管理研究。2020年在最优水资源分配方案下,工业缺水率3.21%、减少了4.51%;能源基地缺水率0.00%;农业缺水率4.64%、缺水率增加26.17%;生活缺水率0.00%;生态缺水率1.00%、缺水率增加了1.00%。配置方案实现了流域内水资源的最佳分配,使宝贵、有限的水资源产生最大的社会、经济及环境效益,为流域经济、能源产业的快速发展提供水资源保障。     

应用6σ质量管理方法尝试评价多目标样品氯等项目检测质量水平

应用6σ质量管理方法评价X射线荧光光谱法测定多目标地球化学样品分析中4个日常监控土壤标准物质中C l、S、总碳、N、Na2O、MgO、A l2O3、SiO2、P、K2O、CaO、Ba、Ti、V、Cr、Mn、TFe2O3、Zn、Ga、Br、Pb、Th、Rb、Sr、Y、Zr、Nb等27个项目检测质量水平。研究结果显示,随着高精度、自动化仪器的应用,多目标样品分析多个项目的精密度、准确度都得到大幅度的提高,部分检测项目的性能已经达到6σ质量水平;但有少数项目如N、总碳、Cr等低于3σ质量水平,其精密度准确度均需改进,分析性能有待进一步提高,建议更换检测方法。用6σ质量管理方法评价地质实验分析测试质量水平与地质实验室传统质量控制方法得出的结果具有一致性,其评价方法简便、量化、直观、具有一定的应用价值。     

Using network centralized data envelopment analysis for shipping line resource allocation

In liner shipping, the objective of a shipping company is to gain profits with a certain number of dispatched vessels and shipping costs depending on the shipping line conditions and market trends. In view of the current need to address global warming and reduce carbon emissions, the issue of greenhouse gases produced by shipping line operations should be considered in addition to profits. This study applied centralized decision making involving centralized data envelopment analysis for optimal resource allocation for each shipping line in order to achieve optimal output and undesirable output levels with reallocation of resources while using currently available resources. In the empirical analysis, this study sought to verify the resource allocation model for the intra-Asia lines of a Taiwanese shipping company by using the network centralized data envelopment analysis. The results showed that the proposed model provides shipping line operators with information on the amounts by which they should reduce undesirable outputs (carbon emissions), increase line revenue and revenue TEU-nautical mile, and reallocate resources. As such, the model can serve as a guide for resource allocation in shipping lines.     

Identifying the optimal configuration of one-way and two-way streets for contraflow operation during an emergency evacuation

As natural and man-made disasters have been increasing, interest in preventing crises and/or mitigating the associated consequences has been growing as well. When dealing with predictable disasters, there is a limited time for effective response, and people should be evacuated in a short time to minimize the fatalities. In such extraordinary situations, attention should be given to making better use of existing infrastructure. The aim of this study is to present a model for optimizing street directions in order to increase the outbound capacity of the network. However, because of the magnitude of the problem, an optimal solution cannot be reached through ordinary methods. Hence, the simulated annealing algorithm, which is a meta-heuristic technique, is used. Computational results on a case study demonstrate that this technique yields considerable improvement in the objective function of the problem which is total travel time of road network users.

     

A stochastic optimization approach for paper recycling reverse logistics network design under uncertainty

One of the most important objectives of a manufacturing firm is the efficient design and operation of its supply chain to maximize profit. Paper is an example of a valuable material that can be recycled and recovered. Uncertainty is one of the characteristics of the real world. The methods that cope with uncertainty help researchers get realistic results. In this study, a two-stage stochastic programing model is proposed to determine a long term strategy including optimal facility locations and optimal flow amounts for large scale reverse supply chain network design problem under uncertainty. This network design problem includes optimal recycling and collection center locations and optimal flow amounts between the nodes in the multi-facility environment. Proposed model is suitable for recycling/ manufacturing type of systems in reverse supply chain. All deterministic, stochastic models are mixed-integer programing models and are solved by commercial software GAMS 21.6/CPLEX 9.0.     

Research on China export structure adjustment: an embodied carbon perspective

This paper calculated the embodied carbon in China export and its distribution in each industrial sector. The calculation results showed the total carbon emission of export experienced an increase before 2007 and then a decrease till 2010. The ratio of export embodied carbon accounting for the total carbon emission in China also increased from 31 % in 2002 to 52 % in 2007 and then declined to 40 % in 2010. As for distribution, the export embodied carbon emission of the following industries such as machinery and equipment manufacturing, metal products manufacturing industry, chemical industry, textile, clothing and leather products manufacturing industry ranked the highest. According to the calculation and analysis of the main driving factors of embodied carbon growth, we analyzed the structure effect, scale effect and technological effect’s influence on embodied carbon growth, respectively. We also calculated the trade competitiveness index of 17 export industries. Through research, we found that the products with strong international competitiveness belong to high-carbon-emission categories, which was the main reason of high carbon emission in China export. Finally, we proposed related policy suggestions to promote China’s export trade structural readjustment and optimization and China’s low carbon development in export.

     

Full probabilistic design of slopes in spatially variable soils using simplified reliability analysis method

ABSTRACT

A simplified reliability analysis method is proposed for efficient full probabilistic design of soil slopes in spatially variable soils. The soil slope is viewed as a series system comprised of numerous potential slip surfaces and the spatial variability of soil properties is modelled by the spatial averaging technique along potential slip surfaces. The proposed approach not only provides sufficiently accurate reliability estimates of slope stability, but also significantly improves the computational efficiency of soil slope design in comparison with simulation-based full probabilistic design. It is found that the spatial variability has considerable effects on the optimal slope design.     

Expression of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event: New insights from a Swiss transect

A sedimentological, biostratigraphical and geochemical (stable isotopes and Rock‐Eval parameters) analysis was performed on four Swiss successions, in order to examine the expression of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event along a north–south transect, from the Jura through the Alpine Tethys (Sub‐Briançonnais and Lombardian basins). The locations were selected to represent a range of palaeoceanographic positions from an epicontinental sea to a more open marine setting. The Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event was recognized by the presence of the characteristic negative carbon‐isotope excursion in carbonate (ca 2 to 4‰) and organic matter (ca 4 to 5‰) at the base of the falciferum ammonite Zone (NJT6 nannofossil Zone). The sedimentary expression of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event varies along the transect from laminated mudstone rich in total organic carbon (≤11 wt.%) in the Jura, to thin‐bedded marl (≤5 wt.% total organic carbon) in the Sub‐Briançonnais Basin and to hemipelagic reddish marly limestone (total organic carbon <0·05 wt.%) in equivalent levels from the Lombardian Basin. The carbon‐isotope excursion is thus independent of facies and palaeoceanographic position. The low nannofossil abundance and the peak in Calyculaceae in the Jura and the Sub‐Briançonnais Basin indicate low salinity surface waters and stratified water masses in general. Sedimentological observations (for example, obliquely‐bedded laminae and homogeneous mud layers containing rip‐up clasts) indicate the presence of dynamic conditions, suggesting that water mass stratification was episodically disrupted during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. The proposed correlation highlights a stratigraphic gap and/or condensed interval between the Pliensbachian–Toarcian boundary and the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event interval (most of the tenuicostatum ammonite Zone is missing), which is also observed in coeval European sections and points to the influence of sea‐level change and current dynamics. This transect shows that the sedimentary expression of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event is not uniform across the Alpine Tethys, supporting the importance of local conditions in determining how this event is recorded across different palaeoceanographic settings.