Natural disasters in China: 1900–2011

China is a country prone to high frequency of natural catastrophic events. According to the natural disaster data from 1900 to 2011, the major disaster types include drought, earthquake, epidemic, extreme temperature, flood, mass movement wet and storm. The occurrence of natural disaster and economic loss is increased during the studied period. However, the death toll induced by natural disaster is decreased significantly. A new frame of social development and natural disaster is proposed to discuss the impact of population and GDP on the influence of disaster through the recording and reduction efforts. The results indicated that economic development contributes to the reduction in the impact of natural disaster on the people lives and society. New comprehensive integrated management, including international cooperation, should be established.

     

中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。     

中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。     

Regional effects of natural disasters in China: investing in post-disaster recovery

We examine the effects of natural disasters on income and investment in China. Using macroeconomic province-level data and the provincial history of disaster exposure over the past two decades, we describe the relationship between disaster mortality and morbidity, disasters’ economic damages, government investment and regional economic activity, and infrastructure development. The Chinese government’s aggressive investment in post-disaster reconstruction is discussed, and the implications of this investment for post-disaster private sector economic activity are analyzed empirically. We further investigate the differential effects of natural disasters on economic activity in China’s diverse geographical regions.

     

Using the SyNaRMa system as a disaster management tool

Natural disasters have a considerable effect in human, infrastructure and economy. In the case of a, e.g., catastrophic earthquake that happens and affects the urban environment, immediate and efficient actions are required that ensure the minimization of the damage and loss of human lives. Local and national authorities should respond in order to meet the above objective. Nowadays, one of the most appropriate tools for this purpose is the web-based geographic information systems (GIS). Such a system, named SyNaRMa (Information System for Natural Risk Management in the Mediterranean), has been developed in the frame of an INTERREG IIIB ArchiMED project (2006?C2008). The present paper aims at addressing the role of the SyNaRMa system as a tool for facilitating disaster management. It is argued that the development of a web-based GIS can assist disaster management agencies to improve the quality of their decision making and increase efficiency and effectiveness in all levels of disaster management activities. This research is primarily based on the findings of the abovementioned project that resulted in the development of an information system for natural risk management in the Mediterranean that can facilitate sharing, access and usage of spatial data in disaster management, i.e., preparedness, response and recovery activities.     

The evolving pattern of NGOs’ participating in post-disaster community reconstruction in China: cases study on the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2013 Lushan earthquake

This article presents the difference in patterns of NGOs’ post-disaster reconstruction between the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2013 Lushan earthquake based on a case study of the One Foundation. The comparative studies of the One Foundation’s activities during the two responses illustrate that the organizational strategy gradually shifted from “resource-based” to “learning-based”. Their approach evolved from the providing of resources to the providing of knowledge, as they transformed both aid providers and recipients into collaborative learners, changed a resource-delivery organization into a learning organization and shaped a decentralized partnership of organizations into a mutual learning ecosystem in which knowledge flowed in multiple directions. This example of the One Foundation illustrates the potential future directions of NGOs' participation in disaster response in China.

     

Groundwater overexploitation and soil subsidence monitoring on Recife plain (Brazil)

Facing natural disasters is a priority challenge for cities, exacerbated by increases in urban population and climate change. Improving the resilience of cities is a critical need for the international community and especially for territories exposed to multiple risks, such as Chile. Although disasters are always tragic, the recovery and reconstruction post-disaster may provide a unique opportunity to prevent future suffering, enhancing the resilience of local communities. This paper presents the analysis of two Chilean reconstruction programmes applied in Mehuin and Dichato, after the earthquake and tsunami of 22 May 1960 and 27 February 2010, respectively. In both cases, reconstruction programmes were supported by the Chilean Government, but using different approaches: one focused on providing housing for people injured in the earthquake, while the other also included urban amenities and services. This article proposes an urban morphology analysis framework; in addition, it presents the assessment of the two case studies before and after a disaster, thus evaluating their resilience. By comparing urban morphology resilience pre- and post-disaster, a discussion about the effectiveness of two reconstruction approaches is presented. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to better integrate resilience into urban planning are proposed, with the aim of opening the discussion about how to make cities more resilient to natural disasters.     

Characterizing the spatial distribution of typical natural disaster vulnerability in China from 2010 to 2017

Natural disaster vulnerability can intuitively reflect the susceptibility of an area to environmental changes. Better understanding the spatial distribution of natural disaster vulnerability is a critical process for taking effective adaptation and management. Although significant achievements have been made in disaster vulnerability, few studies are known about natural disaster vulnerability at the national scale, especially from the typical natural disaster events in China. In this study, with normalizing selected indicators and calculating vulnerability index, we analyzed the spatial distribution of natural disasters vulnerability during 2010–2017 using the geospatial techniques. The results showed that natural disaster vulnerability has certain spatial differences, but different natural disaster can occur in the same area during the study period. Drought disaster can occur in all regions of China, especially in Inner Mongolia. Flood disaster is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin. The wind and storm disaster is chiefly in the northern regions in China. The freezing disaster is widely distributed in China. Furthermore, the regions with low vulnerability were primarily distributed in the eastern coastal region, indicating that the rapid development of economy and technology can resist or mitigate natural disaster to a certain extent. This study offers a solution to study natural disasters and provides scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation actions.

     

Study on indirect economic impacts and their causes of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

In terms of events that undermine economic growth, the impact of natural disasters is huge and inevitable. Taking the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake as the research object, and based on the country-year data for 181 counties in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2018, this paper uses the dynamic difference-in-difference method to investigate the indirect impact of this event on the economy. The main findings are as follows: Even though the central government has introduced reconstruction policies and invested a lot of reconstruction funds, in 2018, the per capita income in the extremely and relatively severe disaster areas was still significantly lower than the counterfactual by 21.96% and 7.61%, respectively. There is heterogeneity in the long-term indirect impacts in areas with different disaster levels, and the economies of the extremely severe disaster areas may form a "poverty trap," while the economies of the relatively severe disaster areas are still in a slow recovery state. It was further found that the assistance of central government’s reconstruction funds and the increase in local government expenditure are the reasons for the rapid economic recovery in the short term, and the insufficient level of total demand caused by the investment and consumption is the main reasons for the negative indirect impact on the economy in the disaster areas.

     

Making the countryside more like the countryside? Rural planning and metropolitan visions in post-quake Chengdu

In 2008, an 8.0-magnitude earthquake struck southwest China less than 100 km north of Chengdu, the booming capital of Sichuan Province. The city government undertook a massive reconstruction project in its rural hinterlands that was guided by existing policies to develop rural areas through coordinated urban and rural planning. Planners sought to avoid replicating urban settlements in rural areas by developing recognizably “pastoral” villages, an approach that is being widely echoed in the relatively new discipline of rural spatial planning in China. This paper argues that such design concessions evade the key feature of the new villages: the concentration of rural residents. The Chengdu government, though this symbolic and actual de-peopling of rural landscapes, has recast rural space as an environmental amenity and an abstract stock of arable land. Drawing on interviews, site visits, and policy and media documents, the paper analyzes the metropolitan plans that provided the framework for rural reconstruction in post-quake Chengdu, and connects these to a model village site in Chengdu’s rural periphery. The case illustrates the need to understand site-level village planning in the context of regional political economies of land, and highlights the new role that metropolitan governments are playing in rural development strategies.     

The regionalization of urban natural disasters in China

An integrated urbanization level (CL) index and an integrated natural disaster intensity (QC) index were developed on the basis of Disaster System Theory and China Natural Disaster Database for integrated urban disaster risk assessment. Integrated quantitative assessments of the urban socio-economic system and the intensity of hazards in China were carried out by the Model-Tupu (map series) and inter-feedback process using digital map technology. On the basis of this assessment, China can be regionalized into three regions, namely, coastal urban disaster region, eastern urban disaster region and western urban disaster region, 15 sub-regions and 22 units. These results can provide a scientific basis for determining a city’s disaster risk management and natural disaster relief regionalization in China.

Comprehensive evaluation of urban flood-bearing risks based on combined compound fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model

The extreme precipitation events caused by climate change and the rapid development of urbanization have brought hidden flood risks to the cities. This paper comprehensively considered two major factors of vulnerability of urban flood-bearing and disaster prevention and mitigation (DPAM) capacity and built a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban flood-bearing risks. Secondly, a combined model consisted of composite fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model was constructed to calculate the comprehensive risk indicator. Finally, the Zhengzhou City was taken as an example, the comprehensive indices of urban flood-bearing risk from 2006 to 2015 were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive risk of Zhengzhou City was generally on a slow upward trend, from II level (moderate-risk) in 2006 to III level (secondary high-risk) in 2015, which was mainly due to the mismatch between the rapid development of urbanization and the slow improvement of DPAM capabilities. This paper is expected to provide scientific reference and technical support for urban flood disaster prevention and sponge city construction.

     

Implementing post-earthquake reconstruction plans in China: a resilience perspective

This paper offers a critical investigation on the implementation of reconstruction plans in China following Wenchuan Earthquake through the lens of disaster resilience. The analysis is built upon a resilience in planning framework which consists of nine attributes. Empirical cases of two typical towns in Wenchuan County, Weizhou and Yingxiu, are discussed and compared. This paper upholds an evolutionary perspective of resilience and argues that reconstruction planning is a contested and politically laden field for different stakeholders, such that social aspect resilience is key to understanding plan implementation.

     

A generic decision model for developing concentrated rural settlement in post-disaster reconstruction: a China study

The increasing impacts of natural disasters on disadvantaged rural areas, especially in developing countries, have led to concerns regarding post-disaster rural settlement reconstruction. Various approaches, including resettlement and in-situ reconstruction, have been adopted, both of which disregard changing the pattern of dispersed settlement in villages. Against a pattern of dispersed settlement, developing a concentrated rural settlement (CRS) within a village is argued to enable the resilience of rural villages and provide a basis for sustainable development after a disaster. Nevertheless, this has received little attention when determining a plan of actions for post-disaster reconstruction. No specific guidelines can be referenced when developing CRS in post-disaster reconstruction due to the lack of a generic decision model. Therefore, this study examines the process of developing CRS in post-disaster reconstruction by mapping four cases selected in Dujiangyan, China, after the 5.12 Sichuan Earthquake in 2008. The examination leads to establishing a generic decision model for developing CRS in post-disaster reconstruction, which incorporates all the proficiencies embodied in the existing practices. This model provides an alternative tool for planning CRS in post-disaster reconstruction. It can also serve as a vehicle for identifying both effective practices and weak areas by comparing varying cases.     

Key factors affecting sustained business operations after an earthquake: a case study from New Beichuan,China, 2013–2017

Most disaster research has focused on business recovery at a point in time or over a short period of time, with the goal of summarizing the experience to reduce business vulnerability in future disasters. However, studies on long-term business recovery processes may be more useful for providing lessons that support sustained business operations after a disaster. This study considers the changes in business’ operating statuses following the initial survival of a large earthquake and examines how different factors influence sustained business operations during the long-term recovery after a disaster. The study uses logistic regression techniques along with field investigations and questionnaire data collected from 256 New Beichuan businesses that remained open following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The study results showed that some of the original surviving businesses closed during the subsequent post-disaster operation process. As such, identifying businesses reopening after the disaster cannot be equated with long-term recovery. Factors significantly influencing the sustained operation of a business after the Wenchuan earthquake included: pre-disaster financial conditions, post-disaster monthly average profit, borrowing of money from family or friends, the business owner’s gender, and government subsidies. Study findings have important theoretical implications for research on the long-term recovery of businesses after an earthquake. Findings also have practical value for business owners selecting post-disaster sustainable operation strategies.

     

校园雨涝灾害风险因素影响机制研究

洪涝灾害作为当前最严重的水患问题影响着校园安全,但目前针对该尺度下的风险研究较少。如何降低灾害风险,提升韧性成为当下校园可持续研究的重要议题。以HER框架为基础,在现有研究的基础上综合运用DEMATEL-ISM法,明确各因素间的影响机制及作用程度,构建多级递阶结构模型。结果表明：（1）校园雨涝灾害风险影响机制为五级三阶结构,其中排水设施排涝能力是最关键的根本致因,极端日降水量、暴雨频率、相对高程差是最有效的直接致因。（2）校园雨涝灾害风险最关键的作用路径是排水设施排涝能力-排水管网设置率-校园排水设施维养频率-植被覆盖率-暴雨频率。研究可为校园雨涝灾害防治提供参考。     

Consistent modeling of a catastrophic flowslide at the Shenzhen landfill using a hydro-elasto-plastic model with solid–fluid transition

Flow-type landslides are an important hazard that can cause great destruction due to the rapid flow velocity and large disaster area. This paper presents a catastrophic flowslide that recently occurred at a landfill in Shenzhen, China. This disaster involved an area about 1100 m in length and 630 m in maximum width, and caused the death of 77 people and the destruction of 33 buildings. The precise reason for the landfill’s failure is still unknown, and therefore we try to contribute an increased understanding of the event for future prevention. In this study, the failure mechanism of the studied slope was analyzed and described under partially saturated condition. The solid–fluid transition during the flowslide occurrence was described using a unified constitutive model. The model was used to perform the hydro-elasto-plastic modeling in the pre-failure stage, the viscous modeling in the post-failure stage, and the second-order work criterion was introduced in between to model the solid–fluid transition. The consistent evolution of the flowslide, including initiation, propagation, and deposit stages, was simulated and analyzed using the finite element method with Lagrangian integration points after careful calibration of the viscous parameters. The numerical results were compared with the real case and used to explain the failure mechanism.     

兰州市区泥石流趋势分析的系统熵模型

本文依据泥石流灾害体形态确定的地貌发育程度构建了泥石流灾害的评价模型,并将熵理论综合应用于泥石流评价模型,应用该模型对兰州地区山谷泥石流趋势进行了分析,并指出了评价模型的不足.     

Study on RSS/AOA hybrid localization in life detection in huge disaster situation

Rescue is a tough and time-consuming task in huge disaster. After stricken by a catastrophic natural disaster, the rescue force is typically deployed under the circumstance of traffic paralysis and lack of supplies. To cope with this situation, plenty of human resource and professional equipment are required. However, both the human resource and equipment are insufficient in most situations. The rescue force needs an efficient technology for searching the survivals, such as the life detection, which can be a key factor in disaster relief. Fast and accurate locating of the survivals will guide the limited rescue resource to save more survivors. However, current life detection technology cannot meet the demand of rescue in huge disaster. A novel life detection system based on fake base station is proposed. The detection system can scan the whole disaster area and find the cell phones, which leads to the surviving owners. As the system works in different way with other traditional human localization technology, a novel RSS/AOA hybrid positioning algorithm was proposed in this paper to increase the accuracy of localization. To verify the accuracy, two simulation tests were designed. The result of the two tests illustrates that the novel algorithm is more suitable to work with the novel life detection system.

     

Evaluating agro-meteorological disaster of China based on differential evolution algorithm and VIKOR

Agriculture is not only concerned with the daily life of the local residents, but also plays a significant role in the sustainable development of China and even the stability of the world grain market. The evaluation of meteorological disaster involves many indexes; it can be regarded as a multiple criterion decision-making problem. Comprehensive indexes system of agro-meteorological disaster is proposed. The relative weights of the indexes are acquired by differential evolution algorithm. A novel evaluation model based on VIKOR is proposed to estimate the agro-meteorological disaster of China from 2006 to 2010. The experiment results have demonstrated that the situation of agro-meteorological disaster in North and Northwest area of China was severe and the agro-meteorological disaster of 2008 was very serious.