Estimating potential direct runoff for ungauged urban watersheds based on RST and GIS

Estimating the potential direct runoff for urban watersheds is essential for flood risk mitigation and rainwater harvesting. Thus, this study aims to estimate the potential runoff depth based on the natural resources conservation service (NRCS) method and delineation of the watersheds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. To accomplish this objective, the geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technique (RST) data were integrated to save time and improve analysis accuracy. The employed data include the digital elevation model (DEM), soil map, geology map, satellite images, and daily precipitation records. Accordingly, the hydrologic soil groups (HSG), the land use/land cover (LULC), and curve number (CN) were determined for each watershed in the study area. The results of this analysis show that the study area can be delineated into 40 watersheds with a total area of 8500 km². Furthermore, the dominant HSG is group D, which represents about 71% of the total area. The LULC maps indicate four major land types in the entire study area: urban, barren land, agricultural land, and roads. The CN of the study area ranges from 64 to 98, while the weighted CN is 92 for the city. The rainfall-runoff analysis shows that the area has a high and very high daily runoff (35–50 and >?50 mm, respectively). Therefore, in this case, the runoff leads to flooding, especially in the urban area and agricultural lands.     

Hydrological impacts of land use–land cover change and detention basins on urban flood hazard: a case study of Poisar River basin,Mumbai, India

Flooding in urban area is a major natural hazard causing loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure. The major causes of urban floods include increase in precipitation due to climate change effect, drastic change in land use–land cover (LULC) and related hydrological impacts. In this study, the change in LULC between the years 1966 and 2009 is estimated from the toposheets and satellite images for the catchment of Poisar River in Mumbai, India. The delineated catchment area of the Poisar River is 20.19 km². For the study area, there is an increase in built-up area from 16.64 to 44.08% and reduction in open space from 43.09 to 7.38% with reference to total catchment area between the years 1966 and 2009. For the flood assessment, an integrated approach of Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS), HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-River analysis system (HEC-RAS) with HEC-GeoRAS has been used. These models are integrated with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data to develop a regional model for the estimation of flood plain extent and flood hazard analysis. The impact of LULC change and effects of detention ponds on surface runoff as well as flood plain extent for different return periods have been analyzed, and flood plain maps are developed. From the analysis, it is observed that there is an increase in peak discharge from 2.6 to 20.9% for LULC change between the years 1966 and 2009 for the return periods of 200, 100, 50, 25, 10 and 2 years. For the LULC of year 2009, there is a decrease in peak discharge from 10.7% for 2-year return period to 34.5% for 200-year return period due to provision of detention ponds. There is also an increase in flood plain extent from 14.22 to 42.5% for return periods of 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for LULC change between the year 1966 and year 2009. There is decrease in flood extent from 4.5% for 25-year return period to 7.7% for 100-year return period and decrease in total flood hazard area by 14.9% due to provisions of detention pond for LULC of year 2009. The results indicate that for low return period rainfall events, the hydrological impacts are higher due to geographic characteristics of the region. The provision of detention ponds reduces the peak discharge as well as the extent of the flooded area, flood depth and flood hazard considerably. The flood plain maps and flood hazard maps generated in this study can be used by the Municipal Corporation for flood disaster and mitigation planning. The integration of available software models with GIS and remote sensing proves to be very effective for flood disaster and mitigation management planning and measures.     

Effects of historical and projected land use/cover change on runoff and sediment yield in the Netravati river basin,Western Ghats,India

In this study, the effects of changes in historical and projected land use land cover (LULC) on monthly streamflow and sediment yield for the Netravati river basin in the Western Ghats of India are explored using land use maps from six time periods (1972, 1979, 1991, 2000, 2012, and 2030) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The LULC for 2030 is projected using the land change modeller with the assumption of normal growth. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate streamflow and sediment yield in the river basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of urban (1.80–9.96%), agriculture (31.38–55.75%), and water bodies (1.48–2.66%) increased, whereas that of forest (53.04–27.03%), grassland (11.17–4.41%), and bare land (1.09–0.16%) decreased from 1972 to 2030. The streamflow increased steadily (7.88%) with changes in LULC, whereas the average annual sediment yield decreased (0.028%) between 1972 and 1991 and increased later (0.029%) until 2012. However, it may increase by 0.43% from 2012 to 2030. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanization and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, amounting to 428.65 and 58.67 mm, respectively, and sediment yield, amounting to 348 and 43 ton/km², respectively, in the catchment area from 1972 to 2030. The proposed methodology can be applied to other river basins for which temporal digital LULC maps are available for better water resource management plans.     

快速城市化地区多尺度水文观测试验与暴雨洪水响应机理分析

城市下垫面改变引起水文循环过程发生变异,导致目前已掌握的天然情况下的产汇流规律和机制难以解释城市化等新形势下的水文现象与过程,而面临需重新再认识的挑战。本文以长三角地区为典型,建立了不同城市化水平及空间规模的水文试验流域,探讨了快速城市化地区暴雨洪水响应规律和机制。结果表明：(1)不同量级降水事件下城镇用地土壤水响应程度(表层土壤水涨幅基本超过4%)总体高于其他土地利用类型,城市化地区下垫面的改变通过影响土壤水动态响应模式直接影响了地表产流过程,植被覆盖率较低的城镇用地和荒地土壤含水率呈现出陡涨陡落现象,而植被作用下的土地利用类型则表现出缓慢上升和缓慢消退的土壤水响应过程。(2)流域洪峰滞时和洪峰流量整体表现为随流域面积增加而呈幂律函数关系形式的增加。(3)总降水量与主要洪水特征(如洪峰流量、单位面积洪峰流量和径流深)基本呈显著相关(相关系数分别达0.49、0.41和0.78以上)。城市下垫面通过改变土壤水动态响应等产汇流特征而直接影响了洪水过程,未来长三角地区暴雨洪水在城市化和气候因素双重作用下呈现持续加剧的趋势。     

Spatial evaluation of impacts of increase in impervious surface area on SCS-CN and runoff in Nagpur urban watersheds,India

The changing land use due to rapid urbanization has profound impact on the runoff in urban watersheds. The spatial analysis in urban watersheds is felt necessary for management of surface and subsurface water regimes. Significant increase in impervious zones was observed in Nagpur urban watersheds between 2000 and 2012 having impacts on runoff, and even flash floods were observed. This study presents spatial and temporal impacts of change in urban built-up area on curve number (CN) and runoff during the years 2000 and 2012. The study also analyzes effect of slope on CN values and shows that CN increases with slope. High-resolution satellite images were used to map impervious surface areas (ISAs) which show an increase of 0.9 to 34 % during 2000–2012. Spearman’s and Pearson’s coefficients have been generated to establish relationship between runoff, impervious surface areas, vegetation index, slope, and runoff coefficient. It has been hypothetically assumed that if 100, 50, and 25 % rooftop rainwater harvesting is considered, the estimated runoff reduces in 2012 as compared to the year 2000. The study suggests that increase in impervious areas within urban watersheds can be utilized for groundwater augmentation adopting rooftop rainwater-harvesting techniques and to prevent flash floods.     

Integration of geospatial technologies with RUSLE for analysis of land use/cover change impact on soil erosion: case study in Rib watershed,north-western highland Ethiopia

In recent times, soil erosion interlocked with land use and land cover (LULC) changes has become one of the most important environmental issues in developing countries. Evaluation of this complex interaction between LULC change and soil erosion is indispensable in land use planning and conservation works. This paper analysed the impact of LULC change on soil erosion in the north-western highland Ethiopia over the period 1986–2016. Rib watershed, the area with dynamic LULC change and severe soil erosion problem, was selected as a case study site. Integrated approach that combined geospatial technologies with revised universal soil loss equation model was utilized to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of soil loss over the study period. Pixel-based overlay of soil erosion intensity maps with LULC maps was carried out to understand the change in soil loss due to LULC change. Results showed that the annual soil loss in the study area varied from 0 to 236.5 t ha^?1 year^?1 (tons per hectare per year) in 1986 and 0–807 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016. The average annual soil loss for the entire watershed was estimated about 40 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 1986 comparing with 68 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016, a formidable increase. Soil erosion potential that was estimated to exceed the average soil loss tolerance level increased from 34.5% in 1986 to 66.8% in 2016. Expansion of agricultural land at the expense of grassland and shrubland was the most detrimental factor for severe soil erosion in the watershed. The most noticeable change in soil erosion intensity was observed from cropland with mean annual soil loss amount increased to 41.38 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016 from 26.60 in 1986. Moreover, the most successive erosion problems were detected in eastern, south-eastern and northern parts of the watershed. Therefore, the results of this study can help identify the soil erosion hot spots and conservation priority areas at local and regional levels.     

Assessment of land use/land cover dynamics vis-à-vis hydrometeorological variability in Wular Lake environs Kashmir Valley,India using multitemporal satellite data

Wular Lake, one of the largest freshwater lakes of Jhelum River Basin, is showing signs of deterioration due to the anthropogenic impact and changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) and hydrometeorological climate of the region. The present study investigated the impacts of temporal changes in LULC and meteorological and hydrological parameters to evaluate the current status of Wular Lake environs using multisensor, multitemporal satellite and observatory data. Satellite images acquired for the years 1992, 2001, 2005, and 2008 were used for determining changes in the LULC in a buffer area of 5 km² around the Wular Lake. LULC mapping and change analysis using the visual interpretation technique indicated significant changes around the Wular Lake during the last two decades. Reduction in lake area from 24 km² in 1992 to 9 km² in 2008 (?62.5 %) affected marshy lands, the habitat of migratory birds, which also exhibited drastic reduction from 85 km² in 1992 to 5 km² in 2008 (?94.117 %). Marked development of settlements (642.85 %) in the peripheral area of the Wular Lake adversely affected its varied aquatic flora and fauna. Change in climatic conditions, to a certain extent, is also responsible for the decrease in water level and water spread of the lake as witnessed by decreased discharge in major tributaries (Erin and Madhumati) draining into the Wular Lake.     

Urban expanding pattern and soil organic, inorganic carbon distribution in Shanghai, China

Soil carbon stock changes induced by land-use change play an essential role in the global greenhouse effect and carbon circulation. This paper studies the urban expanding patterns and spatial characteristics of soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil inorganic carbon (SIC) distribution and evolution during the urbanization process of Shanghai, China, based on the data of the regional geochemical survey. Urbanization process in Shanghai, China, has been quickening greatly since the 1980s. The urban area expanded from 193.08 km² in 1980 to 1,570.52 km² in 2005, or up from 3.05 to 24.77% in the past 25 years, and the urban expansion circled the central city region according to the RS images acquired in the periods of 1980, 2000 and 2005. The urban topsoil is slightly enriched with SOC and SIC, which shows obvious spatial variability. By comparison of SOC and SIC distribution in the central urban area, urbanized area during 1980–2000, 2000–2005 and the suburban area, the SOC obviously accumulates in the central urban area, while SOC density in the urbanized area decreases; similarly, the SIC obviously accumulates in central urban area; furthermore, the SIC density increases with urban land use duration extending and urban ecosystem evolving. This paper provides the characteristics of SOC and SIC distribution and evolution during the course of urbanization, which may be useful for assessing the impact of land use and urban development on SOC and SIC pools in urban ecosystem.     

Sediment yield in the Patuxent River (Md.) undergoing urbanization, 1968–1969

Water discharge from the Patuxent River into its estuary was near-average (95%) during the water year 1968–1969 although precipitation was only 79% of the average. Suspended-sediment discharge into the estuary, however, was more then double the normal yield (344 metric tons/km² compared to 143 metric tons/km²). These increases in runoff and suspended-sediment yields, despite decreased precipitation, must be attributed to urbanization of the drainage basin.The maximum measured suspended-sediment concentrations in the rural Middle Patuxent basin (Piedmont Province) increased only 40-fold during an increase from “average” to high water runoff (15 mg/l to 600 mg/l). In the portion of the Little Patuxent River basin undergoing urbanization (Piedmont portion), stream concentrations increased by over two orders of magnitude (20 mg/l to 2400 mg/l) as a result of heavy rainfall. The area undergoing urbanization of the Little Patuxent yielded more than twice as much suspended sediment per unit area as the rural Middle Patuxent (620 metric tons/km² versus 290 metric tons/km²). This increase also is interpreted to be the direct result of erosion of soils denuded or disturbed during urban construction.Using the Middle Patuxent as a “standard” for normal erosion rates in rural areas, construction sites contributed about 82% of the suspended sediment discharged by the Patuxent River into its estuary even though such sites represented only 23% of the drainage basin.     

S patio-temporal pattern of land use and land cover and its effects on land surface temperature using remote sensing and GIS techniques: a case study of Bhubaneswar city,Eastern India (1991–2021)

Urbanization produces substantial land use changes by causing the construction of different urban infrastructures in the city region for habitation, transportation, industry, and other reasons. As a result, it has a significant impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) by disrupting the surface energy balance. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use/land-cover (LU/LC) dynamics on urban land surface temperature (LST) of Bhubaneswar City in Eastern India during 30 years (1991–2021) using Landsat data (TM, ETM + , and OLI/TIRS) and machine learning algorithms (MLA). The finding reveals that the mean LST over the entire study domain grows significantly between 1991 and, 2021due to urbanization (β coefficient 0.400, 0.195, 0.07, and 0.06 in 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 respectively) and loss of green space (β coefficient − 0.295, − 0.025, − 0.125 and − 0.065 in 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 respectively). The highest class recorded for agricultural land (49.60 km², accounting for 33.94% of the total land area) was in 1991 followed by vegetation (41.27 km², 28.19% of the total land area), and built-up land (27.59 km², 18.84% of the total land area). The sharp decline of vegetation cover will continue until 2021 due to increasing built-up areas (r = − 0.531, − 0.329, − 0.538, and − 0.063 in the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 respectively). Built-up land (62.60 km², accounting for 42.76% of the total land area, an increase of 35.01 km² from 1991) as the highest class followed by water bodies (21.57%, 32.60 km² of the land area), and agricultural land (31.57 km², 21.57% of the land area) in 2021. Remote sensing techniques proved to be an important tool to urban planners and policymakers to take adequate steps to promote sustainable development and minimize urbanization influence on LST. Urban green space (UGS) can help improve the overall liveability and environmental sustainability of Bhubaneswar city.

     

Geo-hydrological database modeling for integrated multiple hazards and risk assessment in Lesser Himalaya: a GIS-based case study

The main objective of the study was to assess the integrated multiple hydrological hazards and their environmental and socio-economic risks in Himalaya through geographical information system (GIS) and database management system (DBMS). The Dabka Watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Kumaun Lesser Himalaya has been selected for the case illustration. The Dabka DBMS is constituted of three GIS modules, that is, geo-informatics, hydro-informatics and hazard-informatics. Through the integration and superimposing of these modules prepared Hydrological Hazard Index to identify the level of vulnerability for existing hydrological hazards and their socio-economic and environmental risks. The results suggested that geo-environmentally most stressed barren land areas have high rate of runoff, flood magnitude, erosion sediment load and denudation during rainy season particularly in the month of August (i.e., respectively, 84.56 l/s/km², 871.80 l/s/km², 78.60 t/km² and 1.21 mm/year), which accelerates high hazards and their socio-economic and environmental risks, whereas geo-environmentally least stressed dense forest areas experience low rate of stream runoff, flood magnitude, erosion sediment load and denudation in the same season and month (i.e., respectively, 20.67 l/s/km², 58.12 l/s/km², 19.50 t/km² and 0.20 mm/year) comparatively have low hazards and their socio-economic and environmental risks. The other frazzled geo-environment that also found highly vulnerable for natural hazards and their risks is agricultural land due to high stream runoff, flood magnitude, erosion sediment load and denudation rates (i.e., respectively, 53.15 l/s/km², 217.95 l/s/km², 90.00 t/km² and .92 mm/year). This makes it necessary to take up an integrated and comprehensive sustainable land use policy for the entire Himalaya region based on the scientific interpretation of the crucial linkages between land use and hydrological hazards, that is, floods, erosion, landslides during rainy season and drought due to dry-up of natural springs and streams during summer season. The study would help the village, district and state development authority to formulate decision support system for alternate planning and management for the Himalaya region.     

Impervious surface impact on water quality in the process of rapid urbanization in Shenzhen, China

Urbanization has accelerated rapidly over the last century, which has caused surfaces in natural ecosystems to shift to impervious surfaces. As a result, urban watershed ecosystems show altered physical, chemical and ecological process. As an important part of watershed management, urbanization has become one of the key issues involved in the deterioration of water quality. Impervious surface area (ISA) has been recognized as a key indicator of the effects of non-point runoff and water quality within a particular watershed. Numerous case studies have been conducted to investigate the relationship between urbanization and water quality in different study areas. However, there is still a lack of understanding regarding quantitative analysis of the threshold between urbanization and water quality indicators. This study was conducted to improve the understanding of how to quantify a threshold between urbanization and water quality, taking the rapid urbanization zone of Shenzhen, China as a case study. To accomplish this, ISA was extracted from the Landsat? image using a linear spectral mixture method to quantify the urbanization. The relationship between water quality indicators and ISA was then analyzed by nonlinear regression, and the threshold between ISA and the chemical indicators of water quality was investigated using the statistical segment approach method. The results indicate that the water quality indicators and ISA are significantly correlated, and that, with the exception of Zn, Pb, and CN, the water quality indicators had R ² values greater than 0.45. Furthermore, with the exception of Zn, F^?, Pb and oils, water quality indicators were found to have an ISA threshold of 36.9–52.9 %, indicating that it is important to control the ISA below 36.9 % in urbanization watersheds to enable effective urban watershed management.     

Land-use change and its environmental impact in the Heihe River Basin, arid northwestern China

Rapid land-use change has taken place in many arid and semi-arid regions of China over the last decade as the result of demand for food for its growing population. The Heihe River Basin, a typical inland river basin of temperate arid zone in northwestern China, was investigated to assess land-use change dynamics by the combined use of satellite remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS), and to explore the interaction between these changes and the environment. Images were classified into six land-use types: cropland, forestland, grassland, water, urban or built-up land, and barren land. The objectives were to assess and analyze landscape change of land use/cover in Heihe River Basin over 15 years from 1987 to 2002. The results show that (1) grassland and barren land increase greatly by 22.3, and 268.2 km², respectively, but water area decreased rapidly by 247.2 km² in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin; (2) cropland and urban or built-up land increased greatly by 174.9, and 64.6 km², respectively, but grassland decreased rapidly by 210.3 km² in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin; and (3) barren land increased largely by 397.4 km², but grassland degraded seriously and water area decreased obviously by 313.3, and 21.7 km², respectively in the lower reaches of Heihe River Basin. These results show that significant changes in land-use occur within the whole basin over the study period and cause severe environmental degradation, such as water environmental changes (including surface water runoff change, decline of groundwater table and degeneration of surface water and groundwater quality), land desertification and salinization, and vegetation degeneracy.     

The storage potential of different surface coverings for various scale storms on Wu-Tu watershed,Taiwan

An impervious surface cover is continuously spreading over the Wu-Tu upstream watershed due to the concentrated population and raised economical demands, while that area also frequently suffers from heavy storms or typhoons during the summer season. The increased flood volume due to this extended imperviousness causes a greater potential hazard than that of the past. In order to evaluate the urbanized impacts on the watershed, a set of methods were used to estimate the changes of the watershed storage. This research chose 51 observed events from three raingauges on the Wu-Tu upstream watershed, Taiwan, to study the volume characteristic of abstracted rainwater. In the study, the block Kriging method was used to estimate the area rainfall and the hourly excess was derived through the non-linear programing (NLP). A total of 40 samples were calibrated through the hydrological model and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model using the optimum seeking method in order to search out and establish the best parameters that illustrate the hydrological and geomorphic conditions at that time. Eleven cases were used to examine the established relationship of the parameters and the impervious coverings. A design storm approach was used to view the changes of the volume for various scale storms/typhoons because of the different degrees of urbanization. Then, a diagram was designed to show the relationships that exist among the runoff coefficient, return period, and impervious surface. The satisfactory results show that storage capability of rainwater for various scale storms on the Wu-Tu watershed would be respectively reduced about 42–156 cms in different decrements up to now.     

城市下垫面空间特征对地表产汇流过程的影响研究综述

快速城市化显著改变了城市下垫面空间特征,对地表产汇流过程产生了重要影响。综述城市下垫面空间特征对地表产汇流过程的影响研究进展,以下垫面空间特征对产汇流过程的影响为主线,聚焦不透水面和微地形两类空间特征,总结城市下垫面空间特征及其表征方法;从不透水率与不透水面空间变化、数值模拟与物理实验等方面,分别梳理不透水面和微地形等空间特征对地表产汇流过程的影响研究成果。展望未来城市下垫面空间特征对地表产汇流过程的影响研究重点和发展方向,主要包括影响机理解析、主控空间特征参数识别与敏感性分析、城市水文效应适应性应对等,以期为快速城市化下城市水文效应解析和城市洪涝灾害防治提供一定参考。     

Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.     

HAND (height above nearest drainage) tool and satellite-based geospatial analysis of Hyderabad (India) urban floods,September 2016

Urban flooding needs to be understood holistically and addressed geospatially by all stakeholders. In the present study, an attempt is made to understand the problem of urban flooding in part of Hyderabad city (Zone-12) geospatially considering the satellite-based changes in land use/land cover between 1989 and 2016, identifying low-lying areas vulnerable to flooding using HAND (height above nearest drainage) model in conjunction with the analysis of high-resolution satellite images and ground based validation of affected locations during rains of September 2016. The study shows that Zone-12 has undergone significant increase in impervious cover by 42% between 1989 and 2016. The impact of urbanization has obliterated the footprints of stream network, significantly changing the hydrological landscape due to burial of channels and concretization of lake beds. The interconnected channel network and lake system acting as sinks to absorb high runoff during monsoons have been encroached upon aggravating the urban flooding problem. The study shows that HAND model can be an effective tool under data scarce environments, limited cloud-free high-resolution satellite data availability during floods to have first cut baseline information on flood vulnerable areas.     

Demarcation of fluoride vulnerability zones in granitic aquifer,semi-arid region,Telengana, India

This study has been carried out in the granitic aquifer of Maheshwaram watershed, Telengana, India. In this study, groundwater sample data of 8 years were analyzed for the fluoride content with other chemical quality parameters. The correlation and factor analysis were employed to understand the mechanisms for fluoride (F) enrichment as well as the hydrochemistry of the area. These analyses addressed that the observed groundwater quality was due to water-rock interaction in the aquifer and fluoride is coming from the dissolution of fluorite and other silicate minerals like biotite and hornblende by the groundwater. Land use/land cover (LULC) study from 2002 to 2008 revealed there were significant positive changes in build-up land and negative changes in vegetation cover after 2003. The main agriculture (paddy) has been reduced to 0.97 km² in 2008 from 2.39 km² in 2003. The studied watershed has been characterized on the basis of F concentration into safe, transition, and unsafe groups following the WHO and BIS guidelines. The temporal variation of the three groups showed that 57.6% area of the watershed was in unsafe zone in 2000–2003, but 69.2% of the area became safe in 2006–2009. It has been found that F concentration reduced in 12.59% of the area (became safe from unsafe) accompanied by the reduction of paddy field area. After validation with present (2016) fluoride concentrations, it was found that 16.28% are vulnerable in near future. The results of this study showed that (a) the safe and unsafe zones of fluoride concentrations vary with time with the changes in other parameters associated with it like crop pattern and (b) vulnerable zone can be identified based on the susceptibility to change of safe and unsafe zones. Such studies are useful for planning and management purposes.     

变化环境下城市洪水演变驱动机理 ——以北京市温榆河为例

气候变化和人类活动被认为是城市洪水演变的主要驱动因素,不同区域气候变化和城市化对洪水演变的影响不尽相同,科学识别城市洪水演变的关键驱动要素、量化气候变化与城市化对城市流域洪水演变的影响是城市洪水管理的重要依据。本文以高度城市化的北京市温榆河流域为例,以季节降雨量、气温、流域前期湿度、不透水面积比及流域内地下水埋深作为潜在驱动要素,对温榆河夏季不同概率的洪水建立GAMLSS模型,分析探讨城市流域洪水演变的主要驱动机制。研究结果表明:温榆河流域夏季不同概率的洪水在研究期均呈现出非一致性特性;城市不透水面积的扩张和降水是温榆河流域夏季洪水变化的主要驱动要素,不同等级洪水的变化具有不同的驱动机制,高于概率70%的小洪水的变化主要受到流域下垫面变化的影响,而小于概率45%的低频洪水的变化主要受降水的影响。     

Simulation of spatial and temporal distribution on dissolved non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus load in Jialing River Watershed,China

Jialing River, which covers a basin area of 160,000 km² and a length of 1,280 km, is the largest tributary of the catchment area in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. In recent years, water quality in the reservoir area section of Jialing River has been degraded due to land use and the rural residential area induced by non-point source pollution. Therefore, the semi-distributed land-use runoff process (SLURP) hydrological model has been introduced and used to simulate the integrated hydrological cycle of the Jialing River Watershed (JRW). A coupling watershed model between the SLURP hydrological model and dissolved non-point source pollution model has been proposed in an attempt to evaluate the potential dissolved non-point source pollution load; it enhances the simulation precision of runoff and pollution load which are both based on the same division of land use types in the watershed. The proposed model has been applied in JRW to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of the dissolved total nitrogen (DTN) and dissolved total phosphorus (DTP) pollution load for the period 1990–2007. It is shown that both the temporal and spatial distribution of DTN and DTP load are positively correlated to annual rainfall height. Land use is the key factor controlling the distribution of DTN and DTP load. The source compositions of DTN and DTP are different, where average DTN pollution load in descending order is land use 67.2%, livestock and poultry breeding 30.5%, and rural settlements 2.2%; and for DTP, livestock and poultry breeding is 50%, land use 48.8%, and rural settlements 1.2%. The contribution rates of DTN and DTP load in each sub-basin indicate the sensitivity of the results to the temporal and spatial distribution of different pollution sources. These data were of great significance for the prediction and estimation of the future changing trends of dissolved non-point source pollution load carried by rainfall runoff in the JRW and for studies of their transport and influence in the Three Gorges Reservoir.