Effects of historical and projected land use/cover change on runoff and sediment yield in the Netravati river basin,Western Ghats,India

In this study, the effects of changes in historical and projected land use land cover (LULC) on monthly streamflow and sediment yield for the Netravati river basin in the Western Ghats of India are explored using land use maps from six time periods (1972, 1979, 1991, 2000, 2012, and 2030) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The LULC for 2030 is projected using the land change modeller with the assumption of normal growth. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate streamflow and sediment yield in the river basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of urban (1.80–9.96%), agriculture (31.38–55.75%), and water bodies (1.48–2.66%) increased, whereas that of forest (53.04–27.03%), grassland (11.17–4.41%), and bare land (1.09–0.16%) decreased from 1972 to 2030. The streamflow increased steadily (7.88%) with changes in LULC, whereas the average annual sediment yield decreased (0.028%) between 1972 and 1991 and increased later (0.029%) until 2012. However, it may increase by 0.43% from 2012 to 2030. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanization and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, amounting to 428.65 and 58.67 mm, respectively, and sediment yield, amounting to 348 and 43 ton/km², respectively, in the catchment area from 1972 to 2030. The proposed methodology can be applied to other river basins for which temporal digital LULC maps are available for better water resource management plans.     

Improving the WRF/urban modeling system in China by developing a national urban dataset

Accurate modeling of urban climate is essential to predict potential environmental risks in cities. Urban datasets, such as urban land use and urban canopy parameters (UCPs), are key input data for urban climate models and largely affect their performance. However, access to reliable urban datasets is a challenge, especially in fast urbanizing countries. In this study, we developed a high-resolution national urban dataset in China (NUDC) for the WRF/urban modeling system and evaluated its effect on urban climate modeling. Specifically, an optimization method based on building morphology was proposed to classify urban land use types. The key UCPs, including building height and width, street width, surface imperviousness, and anthropogenic heat flux, were calculated for both single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) and multiple-layer Building Energy Parameterization (BEP). The results show that the derived morphological-based urban land use classification could better reflect the urban characteristics, compared to the socioeconomic-function-based classification. The UCPs varied largely in spatial within and across the cities. The integration of the developed urban land use and UCPs datasets significantly improved the representation of urban canopy characteristics, contributing to a more accurate modeling of near-surface air temperature, humidity, and wind in urban areas. The UCM performed better in the modeling of air temperature and humidity, while the BEP performed better in the modeling of wind speed. The newly developed NUDC can advance the study of urban climate and improve the prediction of potential urban environmental risks in China.     

Growth of medium sized towns in India

The growth of medium sized towns (with a population ranging from 20,000 to less than 100,000) in India was subjected to a detailed analysis. The basic premise was that growth behaviour of this group of towns, rather of cities or small towns, was a sensitive index to decentralisation of the urban process as well as to a balanced development of a region.It was discovered that growth rate of these towns was not just moderate; it was moderate to rapid. This signified that medium sized towns were more akin to cities than to small towns in respect of growth pattern.Among the various factors affecting growth, location of these towns in a particular region was discerned as more critical than their functions or relative size. Their growth was distinctly fast in areas with comparatively low population density, wide spacing of towns and new developmental activities. Here these towns were generally the biggest in their subregional context. The growth behaviour of medium sized towns did confirm dispersal of urbanisation but lack of any consistent relationship between their growth rate and development level of different areas was not in conformity with the hypothesis.     

Exploring the factors affecting urban ecological risk: A case from an Indian mega metropolitan region

Assessment of ecological risk (ER) is a key approach to adapting and mitigating ecological deterioration in cities of developing countries. In developing countries, the ecological landscapes such as vegetation cover, water bodies, and wetlands are highly vulnerable due to rapid urban expansion. Therefore, urban ER (UER) assessment and its drivers are crucial to guide ecological protection as well as restoration. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of UER and the impact of urban spatial form on UER in the Kolkata Megacity Region (KMR), India. This study developed a UER index and used spatial regression models across the urban centres. The ER has been assessed at city scale as well as grid-scale (2 km × 2 km and 5 km × 5 km) from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that ER has substantially increased over the last 20 years. The urban centres with very high and high ER substantially increased, i.e. from 21.95% in 2000 to 31.70% in 2020. Kolkata and its surrounding urban centres were mostly characterized by very high and high ER. ER was influenced by spatial variables (such as land use and landscapes pattern). However, remote sensing parameters were weakly related to ER. The spatial lag model (SLM) (R² = 0.8686) was found to be better fit model than spatial error model (SEM) (R² = 0.8661) and ordinary linear regression model (OLS) (R² = 0.8641). Thus, the findings of the study can improve research and a comprehensive framework for urban ecological resources and provide a scientific basis for urban ecosystem planning and restoration. In addition to this, it will guarantee the sustainable utilization of urban ecosystems.     

A critical look at representations of urban areas in global maps

According to the UN, the number of urban dwellers is expected to increase from roughly 3.2 billion today to more than 4.9 billion by 2030. An accurate and regularly updated estimate of the extent and spatial distribution of urban land is an important first step in our search for realistic responses to the ecological and social consequences of what promises to be the most rapid urbanization in world history. By employing circa-2000 satellite remote sensing imagery, geographic information systems, and census data, six groups from government and academia in both the EU and the US have created global maps that can be used to describe urban land. We compare these maps from global to sub-national scales, for the first time applying Discrete Global Grids to the problem of global-scale map comparison. Although most of these maps share common data inputs, they differ by as much as an order of magnitude in their estimates of the total areal extent of the Earth’s urban land (from 0.27 to 3.52 million km²). A sub-national analysis of the spatial distribution of urban land reveals that inter-map correlations are highest in North America ( $ \ifmmode\expandafter\bar\else\expandafter\=\fi{r} $  = 0.90), intermediate in Europe, South and Central America, and Sub-Saharan Africa ( $ \ifmmode\expandafter\bar\else\expandafter\=\fi{r} $  = 0.78), and lowest in Asia ( $ \ifmmode\expandafter\bar\else\expandafter\=\fi{r} $  = 0.63). Across most regions, our analysis uncovers a degree of variance that is high enough to call into question the consistency of each group’s approach to urban land, pointing to the need for both a common urban taxonomy and a global urban assessment effort.     

城市泥石流风险评价探讨

探讨了城市泥石流风险评价的系统方法,该方法包括泥石流扇形地危险区划、城市易损性分析和城市泥石流风险评价三个主要内容。泥石流堆积扇危险区划是基于数值模拟计算出的泥深和流速分布图进行叠合完成的。以美国高分辨率的“快鸟”卫星影像为数据源,完成了研究区的城市土地覆盖类型遥感解译,在此基础上完成了城市泥石流易损性分析,应用地理信息系统提供的统计和分析工具,完成了研究区泥石流风险评价。该风险区划图可用于指导对泥石流易泛区的不同风险地带的土地利用进行规划和决策,从而达到规避和减轻灾害的目的,也为生活在泥石流危险区的城市居民提供有关灾害风险信息,以作避难和灾害防治的依据。     

Waterlogging risk assessment based on land use/cover change: a case study in Pudong New Area,Shanghai

Waterlogging induced by torrential rain or typhoon in urban areas due to rapid urban development and land cover changes has been a global hotspot and a potential risk affecting urban habitant lifelines and safety. This paper analyzed the impact of land use/cover change on the surface runoff and evaluated the waterlogging risk caused by precipitation with different intensities in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. A simplified urban waterlogging model has been built for the inundated water depth simulation through the combination of both SCS model and GIS spatial analysis with the consideration of underlying surface characters in urban area. Based on the simulated depth results, waterlogging risk ranks were further established to evaluate waterlogging risk of Pudong New Area under different conditions considering social survey results. The results show that the land use structure and pattern change increases surface runoff depth. Under the assumption of a daily maximum precipitation at 200 mm, the surface runoff depth increased by 13.19 mm from 1994 to 2006 due to urbanization. On the whole, Heqing, Huaxia tourism area, Chuansha, Tangzhen and Jichang Town have high waterlogging risk rank, Gaoqiao, Donggou, urban district, Jinqiao, Caolu, Sanlin and Beicai Town have medium waterlogging risk rank, and Zhangjiang, Gaodong and Huamu Town have low waterlogging risk rank. These results provide important information for the local government, and the method of waterlogging risk assessment can also be applied in other cities to provide guidance on waterlogging risk control.     

贵州省城镇用地扩展强度时空分异及影响因素

以贵州省1995年、2000年、2007年TM遥感影像资料为数据源,利用Er-das软件对该三期影像进行矫正和监督分类,应用ArcView进行修改。然后,再以ArcGIS空间分析模块,提取贵州省1995年、2000年、2007年三个时期的城镇土地利用数据。在此基础上,运用城镇扩展强度指数公式计算城镇扩展强度指数,并从交通、经济和自然环境等方面对贵州省城镇土地利用扩展的影响因素进行分析研究。结果表明:(1)2001-2007年,高速扩展城镇16个,高于1995—2000年期间的5个;(2)从空间上看,南北(遵崇公路、贵遵公路、贵新公路及国道210)沿线、东西(凯麻公路、贵黄公路以及国道320)沿线大城市扩展较快,并以交通十字交点为中心形成中高速扩展区域,而且这种由节点城镇向轴线发展的趋势表现日益突出。(3)从扩展强度等级上看,存在扩展强度等级逐渐递增的规律,即由低速扩展→低中速扩展→中速扩展→中高速扩展→高速扩展。道路等级与城镇扩展强度成正比例关系,即道路等级越高,其沿线城镇土地利用扩展强度越大;经济是城镇扩展的重要影响因素,经济的快速增长能提高城镇扩展强度;平坦开阔的地形地貌将利于城镇扩展,而山高坡陡等崎岖的地形地貌将阻碍城镇的扩展。      

江苏省徐州市睢宁县城区地面沉降稳定性分析与评价

根据江苏省徐州市睢宁县城区内可压缩土层的类型、空间分布特点及压缩变形等特征,建立了本区地面沉降计算地质模型。利用该模型计算出城区2013年累计地面沉降量3.08~380.60 mm,平均为162.41 mm,最大沉降量发生在城区西北部,该区域可压缩土层、黏性土的累计厚度大,地下水水位下降幅度较大。根据预测2030年地下水位埋深条件,采用地面沉降地质模型计算得出城区累计地面沉降量,在此基础上对区内地面沉降危险性进行分区,从而为地下水开采总量的控制及地面沉降监测控制提供相关建议措施,以避免城区2030年后地面沉降地质灾害逐步发展为特大型地质灾害。     

Urban green resilience: Experience from post-industrial cities in Poland

De-industrialisation triggered economic, spatial and environmental changes in cities. Therefore, this study identifies whether there has been a reorientation of spatial development in post-industrial cities towards the creation of green spaces. The aim of the study is to analyse and evaluate the transformation of green spaces in 32 major cities in Poland, including 12 post-industrial cities. Data sources were vector land cover data models from the Urban Atlas for 2006 and 2018, administrative boundaries from the National Boundary Register and building layers from the Topographic Objects Database. The research procedure was carried out using the GIS environment, through spatial analysis, geoprocessing algorithms, and spatial statistics. The results have shown that post-industrial cities do not develop their urban resilience based on the expansion of green spaces and, consequently, do not build green urban resilience. In addition, the research has proven that the greatest loss of green spaces is noticeable in parts of post-industrial cities with medium and high development intensity, where there is an intensification of construction activity. The dominant direction of the transformation of green spaces has been the conversion of agricultural areas into green spaces (87.79%). In contrast, the main direction of loss in green space has been the creation of new industrial units (24.80%) and the expansion of the urban fabric (23.53%). The article is original due to the fact that there is a gap in the literature regarding the study of green spaces in post-industrial cities with regard to the concept of green urban resilience.     

利用城市雨水回灌地下水防治地面沉降技术方法探讨

阐述城市化快速发展日益突显的城市雨水问题与地下水超采引起地面沉降危害,在对城市雨水收集处理进行水质分析基础上,探讨城市雨水直接回灌浅层含水层在地面沉降防治中的利用潜力和意义.     

Monitoring and predicting land use change in Tripoli Metropolitan City using an integrated Markov chain and cellular automata models in GIS

The rapid development of cities in developing countries results in deteriorating of agricultural lands. The majority of these agricultural lands are converted to urban areas, which affects the ecosystems. In this research, an integrated model of Markov chain and cellular automata models was applied to simulate urban land use changes and to predict their spatial patterns in Tripoli metropolitan area, Libya. It is worth mentioning that there is not much research has been done about land use/cover change in Libyan cities. In this study, the performance of integrated CA–Markov model was assessed. Firstly, the Markov chain model was used to simulate and predict the land use change quantitatively; then, the CA model was applied to simulate the dynamic spatial patterns of changes explicitly. The urban land use change from 1984 to 2010 was modelled using the CA–Markov model for calibration to compute optimal transition rules and to predict future land use change. In validation process, the model was validated using Kappa index statistics which resulted in overall accuracy more than 85 %. Finally, based on transition rules and transition area matrix produced from calibration process, the future land use changes of 2020 and 2025 were predicted and mapped. The findings of this research showed reasonably good performance of employed model. The model results demonstrate that the study area is growing very rapidly especially in the recent decade. Furthermore, this rapid urban expansion results in remarkable continuous decrease of agriculture lands.     

Estimating potential direct runoff for ungauged urban watersheds based on RST and GIS

Estimating the potential direct runoff for urban watersheds is essential for flood risk mitigation and rainwater harvesting. Thus, this study aims to estimate the potential runoff depth based on the natural resources conservation service (NRCS) method and delineation of the watersheds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. To accomplish this objective, the geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technique (RST) data were integrated to save time and improve analysis accuracy. The employed data include the digital elevation model (DEM), soil map, geology map, satellite images, and daily precipitation records. Accordingly, the hydrologic soil groups (HSG), the land use/land cover (LULC), and curve number (CN) were determined for each watershed in the study area. The results of this analysis show that the study area can be delineated into 40 watersheds with a total area of 8500 km². Furthermore, the dominant HSG is group D, which represents about 71% of the total area. The LULC maps indicate four major land types in the entire study area: urban, barren land, agricultural land, and roads. The CN of the study area ranges from 64 to 98, while the weighted CN is 92 for the city. The rainfall-runoff analysis shows that the area has a high and very high daily runoff (35–50 and >?50 mm, respectively). Therefore, in this case, the runoff leads to flooding, especially in the urban area and agricultural lands.     

Urban-rural relationships in India: a macro-scale approach using population potentials

The urban system in India is the product of a long and complex history and the urban-rural dichotomy is marked. While urban India is often viewed as ‘modern’ and ‘commercial’, rural India is generally characterised as myopic, backward and traditional. The diffusion of a modern commercial sector into traditionally agricultural areas is seen to be slow because of the lack of small sized towns, and many of the major cities are viewed as the centres of introverted economic systems. This paper seeks to examine these aspects of urban-rural relationships and levels of development in India at two scales, the national and the district. The national scale study analyses the urban and rural components of population potential surfaces. The study at the district level uses similar data, but at a finer scale, and in addition considers potentials of retail trade which gives a clearer illustration of ‘importance’ than population data alone. Several innovations in technique are discussed. The paper concludes with some general methodological comments about the nature of location as perceived by geographers.     

Analyzing and modeling of a large river basin dynamics applying integrated cellular automata and Markov model

Historical and exact information about the land use/land cover change is very important for regional sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to determine the rapid changes in land use/land cover (LULC) pattern due to agriculture expansion, environmental calamities such as flood and government policies over Upper Narmada basin, India. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite images for years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 were used to analyze and monitor the changes in LULC with an overall accuracy of more than 85%. Results revealed a potential decrease in natural vegetation (? 9.52%) due to the expansion of settlement (+ 0.52%) and cropland (+ 9.43%) from 1990 to 2015. In the present study, Cellular Automata and Markov (CA–Markov), an integrated tool was used to project the short-term LULC map of year 2030. The projected LULC (2030) indicated the expansion of built-up area along with the cropland and degradation in the vegetation area. The outcomes from the study can help as a guiding tool for protection of natural vegetation and the management of the built-up area. Additionally, it will help in devising the strategies to utilize every bit of land in the study area for decision makers.     

城市地面沉降与地下水位变化关系的数学模拟

根据滨海平原多个城市多年城市地表沉降及城市地下水位监测资料，系统地分析了地下水位变化与城市地衾沉降的关系，并利用计算机模拟的方法，给出了该类城市地表沉降的数学模型。     

Perspective of urban land use in Beijing

This paper illustrates the features of urban land use in Beijing and approaches the factors particularly influencing the urban internal structure model. The brief review of the development process proves that the historical background and human decisions determined the basic framework of the structure. The spatial structure of land use shows that Beijing still keeps the characteristics of an industrialized city due to the importance of industry. Another particular feature was the absence of a central business district in Beijing, although in socialist system urban spatial structure also displays zonal, sectoral and star forms. The particular form in Beijing is the separated integrated district as the basic subdistrict. Finally the urban problems are discussed and suggestions made.     

Impact of urban water system treatment on the surrounding residential land price

Land price is the central link in the urban land market movement. Along with socio-economic development, urban land price continuously changes. Therefore, it is critically important to study the impact of urban water system treatment on the residential land price under an “ecological city” development model. A hedonic model was established in which the characteristic variable of distance between land and water system after being treated was used as the metric of the impact of urban water system treatment on the residential land price, with an aim to quantitatively study the influence of urban water system treatment on the residential land price. Results indicated that (1) the urban water system treatment had a positive impact on the residential land price. In addition, the residential land price shows a negative correlation to the distance between land and water system after being treated; (2) for every one-unit increase of distance between land and water system after being treated, the logarithm of residential land unit prices decreases by 0.025, and the residential land unit prices decrease by 2.47%. The findings of this study provide a valuable reference for local water resource planning and land management.     

Using GIS for analysis of urban systems

It is recognized that the spatial organization of urban system can be abstracted as three main components: a set of points, which describes the structural characteristics such as social and economic properties of individual city; a set of lines, which indicates the patterns of interaction among the cities; a set of spheres, which indicates how and to which extent each city affects the area around it. Even if such substance of urban system coincides with the main purpose of GIS for spatial or geometric data types such as point, line and region, little attention has been given to this point. By an evidence analysis of China, the application of potential analytical capabilities of GIS for urban system is attempted in this study. We find GIS acts as an efficient tool not only for the spatial structure analysis of urban system, which including potential distribution of cities, extraction of principal linkages among cities, and delimitation of subsystems; but also for the verification of socio-economic attributes and dynamics of urban system. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Soil sealing,population structure and the socioeconomic context: a local-scale assessment

In the most recent decades European urban regions underwent functional changes reflecting heterogeneous land-use patterns and specific urban footprints. Several mono-centric cities shifted towards a scattered development with impact on the socio-spatial structure. Discontinuous expansion determined, in some cases, a net increase in land consumption. Using a multivariate exploratory approach, the present study analyzes the spatial relationships between 14 morphological variables and 22 socioeconomic indicators in Rome’s province. The aim of this study was to identify the demographic and socioeconomic indicators most associated to the transition from a mono-centric and semi-compact morphology towards a more dispersed settlement structure based on different sealing profiles observed at the local scale. Four groups of socioeconomic indicators (population structure, job market, economic specialization and settlement characteristics) associated to different sealing profiles (low, medium and high imperviousness) were identified and local municipalities classified accordingly. Although the urban–rural axis maintains an important role in the spatial organization of Rome’s province, other variables were found associated to areas with moderately low imperviousness, evidencing a specific demographic structure and persisting socioeconomic disparities at the base of the settlement model observed at the regional scale.