钾肥需求模拟研究

旨在模拟预测中国钾肥需求,为钾肥市场参与者和决策者提供基本的数据和理论支持。运用主成份分析法和多元回归计量经济模型模拟我国钾肥需求。首先,运用主成份分析法对钾肥需求影响因子进行降维处理;其次,采用多元统计非线性回归计量经济学模型模拟钾肥需求。结果表明:(1)钾肥需求与人均耕地、受灾面积、钾肥价格呈负相关关系;(2)钾肥需求与耕地、粮食用地、农产品价格存正相关关系;(3)钾肥需求预测可由较易得的人均耕地、耕地、粮食用地、受灾面积、农产品价格和钾肥价格数据代入模型模拟获得,且模拟数据与现实数据吻合较好;(4)此方法可较广泛运用,不需大量的野外试验和较大的工作量,且无空间跨度差异;(5)政府行为对钾肥需求有着极大的影响作用,政府应发挥其积极性,制定出一套有序的制度安排,以弥补市场本身潜在的问题,引导市场机制不断完善。     

气候变化背景下未来西藏粮食供需平衡状况预测

基于组合预测法、生产函数和笔者前期关于气候变化对西藏粮食产量定量影响的工作,对考虑气候变化影响的未来西藏县（区）级尺度粮食供需平衡状况进行预测。结果表明：① 西藏粮食产量较高的区域集中在一江两河等河谷地带,西藏粮食需求量较大的地区主要在人口较多的县市,未来肉类消费增加将会消耗更多的饲料用粮。② 西藏粮食供需平衡状况南北分异明显,南部河谷地区相对较好,北部羌塘高原较差。③ 当前西藏不能实现考虑口粮、饲料粮、工业用粮、种子用粮和损耗5种需求总和的粮食供需平衡,全区自给率为70.58%,2030年和2050年分别下降至62.59%和53.55%。虽然西藏总需求不能完全自给,但仍能保障口粮自给。④ 气候变化整体上对自给率为正面影响。到2030年和2050年,气候变化将使自治区粮食自给状况提升2.45%和2.09%。研究有助于掌握未来西藏粮食安全状况,规划农业布局,以期保障边疆粮食安全、促进高原农业可持续发展。     

珠江三角洲地区城中村土地供求的动态均衡分析

土地问题是我国城中村研究的核心问题。在对珠江三角洲地区城中村进行实地调研的基础上,就城中村主体的行为特征、城中村土地供应和需求的基本特征进行了总结。以理论推导与现实印证相结合的方法,基于经济学中的供求理论,对城中村土地供求变化进行了动态均衡分析。从村庄"内部人"的视角,考察在各种内外部因素变动(征地与留用地,城中村改造,村民城市化转型)的情况下,城中村主体如何实现土地的供应和需求均衡。总体上,城中村土地变化表现为土地需求被动地追随(因征地而发生的)供应减少而下降,以实现供求均衡。具体而言,在城中村形成阶段,供求均衡借助乡村工业化,即农业用地转为工业用地而实现;在城中村存续阶段,存在土地供求的逐渐失衡;在城中村改造阶段,供求均衡最终必须通过城市化,即村民转为市民而实现。     

拉萨河谷灌丛草原与农田水热平衡及植被水分利用特征

以青藏高原的拉萨河谷下游的灌丛草原和农田为研究对象,在中国科学院拉萨高原生态试验站的农田与附近的灌丛草原开展实验.利用SHAW模型模拟了2004年10月-2005年9月灌丛草原与农田水热平衡以及根系吸水过程.模拟结果经分析得出,(1)农田所接收的净辐射比灌丛草原要多,农田接收的能量大部分以潜热形式支出,全年的波文比为0.29;而灌丛草原的波文比为0.89.灌丛草原全年的潜热通量是农田的53%,具有一定的抑制蒸散发的功能.(2)农田耗水量是灌丛草原的1.8倍.农田由于大量的灌溉造成较大的渗漏损失,同时也增加了土壤蒸发这一无益损耗.(3)深层土壤水向上的补给与根系吸水两方面的模拟都表明,灌丛草原的植被比农田能更大程度地利用深层土壤水.     

梁子湖水体P的季节变化与沉积物P释放初步研究

采用分级测定的方法对梁子湖沉积物中无机磷酸盐进行了分析,测定了梁子湖水体P的季节变化,并以室内模拟的方法研究梁子湖沉积物在pH值和温度控制下P的释放特征。研究表明,梁子湖水体P的含量呈明显的季节变化,冬季高,夏季低。沉积物无机磷(P i)中以钙磷(Ca—P)为主(55%~61%),铁磷(Fe—P)次之(28%~33%),铝磷(A l—P)最少(3%~5%)。在梁子湖的入水口和出水口,由于沉积环境影响到P的形态,P的释放明显较湖心高。在试验初期,由于扰动的影响,使得P的释放在第1天比第2天和第3天高,其后P的释放量则迅速增加。温度对P释放影响明显,其具体表现为,30℃时P释放达到峰值的时间比4℃时提前4 d,而且前者峰值比后者高出9倍。pH值对沉积物P释放同样有明显的影响,与正常状态下的湖水条件(pH值为8.5)相比,偏酸(pH值为5.5)和偏碱(pH值为11.5)条件下,P的释放量增加。     

Supply and Demand Levels for Livestock and Poultry Products in the Chinese Mainland and the Potential Demand for Feed Grains

The widening gap between the supply and demand levels for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland poses a significant challenge to the secure supply of feed grains. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the demand potential for feed grains represents a key scientific issue for ensuring food security in the Chinese mainland. This study is based on an analysis of several factors, such as the Chinese mainland’s output, trade volume, apparent consumption of livestock and poultry products, and two different scenarios for predicting the future demand for feed grains are assessed. The results indicate that output and consumption of livestock and poultry products, as well as the country’s trade deficit and the pressure of the supply and demand balance with respect to these products, have been increasing in recent years. The analysis predicts that the demand for feed grains in the Chinese mainland will reach 425.5 or 389.6 million tons in 2030 based on the two scenarios. This finding indicates that with the increasing demand for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland, the demand for feed grains will continue to increase, and the shortfall in feed grains and raw materials will expand further, especially dependence on external sources of protein-rich feed grains will remain high.     

融合空间统计特征的长三角生态空间供需平衡研究

选择长三角为研究区,构建生态空间质量评价体系,结合可达性分析、统计分析方法,通过人口、GDP、土地开发强度反映生态需求程度,分析生态空间质量的空间分布和生态空间满足人类需求程度的空间分异及演变特征。结果表明:(1)通过融合可达性分析、统计分析方法建立的生态空间供需平衡指数,能很好地识别生态空间供需“短板”。(2)长三角生态空间质量从北向南逐渐升高,1995—2015年生态空间质量较差的区域从各大城市中心部分扩大到城市周边地区。(3)长三角生态空间供需平衡的空间分布具有明显的时空差异,供给不足的区域主要是在经济和城市化发展较快的城市,供大于需的区域主要是在生态高质量区域。     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Supply and Demand Balance of Water Supply Services in the Dongjiang Lake Basin and Its Beneficiary Areas

Water-related ecosystem services is a hot topic in ecological research. Water supply services are crucial to regional water cycles and water quantity balance. The Dongjiang Lake basin is a national priority river basin in China where ecological compensation pilot programs concerning water resources and water supply services are top priorities for ecosystem service protection. We analyzed spatial and temporal patterns associated with generation and use of water supply services in the Dongjiang Lake basin using the InVEST model, socio-economic data and water resource data. We found that between 1995 and 2010, water yield in the Dongjiang Lake basin and its beneficiary areas increased before declining, varying 9350-12 400 m³ ha^-1 y^-1; average water yield peaked in 2000. The spatial distribution patterns of water yield during these years are similar, progressively decreasing from upstream to downstream with a remarkable reduction in surrounding areas of city clusters. Average water consumption of the basin and its beneficiary areas ranged from 2900-4450 m³ ha^-1 y^-1 between 1995 and 2010; the spatial distribution patterns of water consumption during these years are similar, dropping gradually from urban construction land to its surroundings with a stronger gradient between urban and rural areas. More water was consumed on both banks and surroundings of the lake. From 1995 to 2010, water supply fell short of demand for urban construction land and its proximity as well as areas along the lake. Water supply services were able to satisfy needs in other regions. The Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city cluster suffers from the most strained water supply.     

祁连山亚高山灌丛林叶面积指数与冠层氮、磷的关系

氮和磷作为植物体内重要的生命元素,在植物群落的生长发育过程中发挥着重要的作用。为了明确祁连山亚高山灌丛林叶面积指数与冠层氮、磷之间的关系,本文通过对祁连山亚高山灌丛林不同植被类型(箭叶锦鸡儿、高山吉拉柳、金露梅)及不同放牧处理(羊群、牦牛,未放牧)条件下灌丛群落的叶面积指数(LAI)与叶片氮积累量(TFN)、叶片磷积累量(TFP)比较发现,在整个亚高山灌丛群落中,LAI与TFN和TFP之间都有较强的相关性,并且TFN和TFP比值的变化表明不同植被类型叶片的生长都受到N、P的共同限制,只是随着LAI的增加,高山吉拉柳主要受到氮素的限制,箭叶锦鸡儿主要受到磷素的限制,而金露梅则受到N、P的共同限制;在不同放牧条件下,单位面积LAI对应的TFN的值较高而TFP的值较低,说明动物通过对植被的啃食可能会改变群落的模式,在一定程度上限制磷的摄入。LAI、N、P之间的耦合关系表明了亚高山灌丛群落的LAI在物种组成、放牧和冠层密度上存在差异,但仍然受到N和P的约束。研究结果有利于探索水分限制条件下祁连山灌丛林生态系统植物叶片与养分元素之间关系,对于研究干旱区高寒灌丛生态系统在全球气候变化中的作用及其对全球气候变化的响应与反馈,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。     

长效钾肥产业化与农业可持续发展

我国钾肥需求量逐年增加，80％需要进口，但同时又有大量的低品位非水溶性钾矿资源没有利用，利用非水溶性钾矿生产长效钾肥既能缓解钾肥短缺的矛盾，又可以解决普通钾肥对环境的污染和破坏。长效钾肥原料分布广，生产和施用技术简单，成本低，易于推广普及形成产业化，其对农业可持续发展将会产生重要的促进作用。     

马铃薯与玉米多样性种植生态防治病害的试验研究(英文)

本文针对中国西南山区作物病害发病高峰与降雨高峰重叠难以防治的难点,进行了生态调控马铃薯与玉米种植结构避雨避病的试验。试验结果表明,时间上提前和推后马铃薯种植避开了降雨高峰,平均降低晚疫病病情指数44.3%。空间上行距拉宽株距缩小,通风透光减轻病害,套种玉米的大斑病平均降低病情指数为14.8%,小斑病平均降低22.5%。本试验的另一重要结果表明,通过调整马铃薯种植结构可以大幅度提高耕地产出率,马铃薯与玉米套种,提前和推后种植马铃薯分别提高土地利用率1.738-1.766。本文研究结果对作物病害的生态防治和增加粮食产量有重要现实意义。通过时空优化作物与环境的配置,合理利用农业生态结构,适应最佳生态环境,实现优质高产高效。     

Fertilizer Consumption and Energy Input for 16 Crops in the United States

Fertilizer use by U.S. agriculture has increased over the past few decades. The production and transportation of fertilizers (nitrogen, N; phosphorus, P; potassium, K) are energy intensive. In general, about a third of the total energy input to crop production goes to the production of fertilizers, one-third to mechanization, and one-third to other inputs including labor, transportation, pesticides, and electricity. For some crops, fertilizer is the largest proportion of total energy inputs. Energy required for the production and transportation of fertilizers, as a percentage of total energy input, was determined for 16 crops in the U.S. to be: 19–60% for seven grains, 10–41% for two oilseeds, 25% for potatoes, 12–30% for three vegetables, 2–23% for two fruits, and 3% for dry beans. The harvested-area weighted-average of the fraction of crop fertilizer energy to the total input energy was 28%. The current sources of fertilizers for U.S. agriculture are dependent on imports, availability of natural gas, or limited mineral resources. Given these dependencies plus the high energy costs for fertilizers, an integrated approach for their efficient and sustainable use is needed that will simultaneously maintain or increase crop yields and food quality while decreasing adverse impacts on the environment.     

浅析意大利新兴工业化地区的兴起

意大利的东北部和中部在二战后迅速崛起,成为新兴工业化地区──称之为“第三意大利”。该区的发展建立在从事工艺型工业的中小型企业密切分工协作的基础上,有着独特的发展模式,本文概括了“第三意大利”的区域经济特征,并对发展原因作了分析。     

意大利旅游地类型划分与旅游业的发展

本文对意大利的旅游地进行类型划分，并对意大利旅游业的空间分布格局进行了分析，在此基础上对该国旅游业近期的发展战略提出了几点意见。     

Storsteinsfjellbreen: Variations in Mass Balance from the 1960s to the 1990s

When the Norwegian State Power Board decided to plan an extensive water power development in the mountainous areas southeast of Narvik in northern Norway, a large mapping project was started. Detailed maps were constructed at a scale of 1:10 000 from aerial photographs taken in 1960. Several hydrometric stations were installed, and three glaciers were selected for mass balance observations. Storsteinsfjellbreen was the largest of these, and a special glacier map with 10 m contours was printed in four colours, to be used in the field work. Mass balance studies were carried out initially during one 5-year period (1964–68), and also later during another 5-year period (1991–95).
Results from these periods are compared with similar data from the Swedish glacier Storglaciären, about 45 km to the southeast. For all the years except one (1968), the net balance of these glaciers shows a similar pattern: positive years and negative years are synchronous.
A new glacier map was made from a special aerial survey in 1993 at the same scale and of similar accuracy as the first map, so a comparison could be made to calculate the change in glacier volume from 1960 to 1993. From digital terrain models it could be shown that the glacier surface had dropped more than 60 m vertically on the tongue, while the thickness increased above the equilibrium line by up to 20 m. The overall mass loss amounted to 16.8×10⁶ m³ water during 33 years, which corresponds to an extra 2.6 l·s⁻¹·km⁻² (litres per sec. per sq. km) delivered to the river, in addition to the "normal" discharge
due to annual precipitation, which is 36 l·s⁻¹·km⁻² in the area.
A copy of the new glacier map is enclosed with this article.     

西欧石油供需现状与展望

石油供应与需求是当今世界关注的问题。西欧的石油资源十分贫乏。本世纪五十年代到六十年代,随着中东石油的开发,西欧大量增加原油进口。结果,石油在共能源消费结构中所占的比重迅速提高,西欧也成为世界上最大的原油净进口地区。在西欧各个地区的能源消费结构中石油所占的比重是不相同的。这一差异首先是由当地能源(特别是煤炭)的地理分布特点所决定的。煤炭资源比较丰富的英国、比利时、西德等国,能源消费结构中石油所占的比重较低。而当地能源十分贫乏的国家如意大利、葡萄牙、希腊等就主要依靠进口原油。西欧的原油供应主要来自西亚与非洲。在西欧各原油进口国与世界各主要原油出口地区间有着不同的组合关系。如北非原油主要到地中海沿岸各国,西非原油则多去北海沿岸国家,苏联原油则供应地中海沿岸及与东欧相邻的几国。这一组合关系主要与它们之间的相对位置有关。在“石油危机”后,西欧的石油消费量略有减少,而能源消费结构中石油所占的比重下降较多。未来的趋势是:由于其他能源利用的扩大,石油的消费量将继续下降。但在本世纪末以前,石油仍将是西欧最主要的能源。在西欧各国之间,由于能源资源与石油消费水平的差异,将表现出不同的变化趋势。     

广州城市空间结构与交通需求关系

在综述国内外相关研究的基础上,以广州为案例研究城市空间结构与交通需求的关系。结果表明,在城市形态与交通需求的关系方面,广州城市二维形态和三维形态与交通需求的空间分布之间具有一定的耦合性,二者存在一定互为因果的关系;交通方式的转化对城市形态的演化具有一定的驱动作用;城市形态引导着交通需求的总量和布局;同时,社会经济活动及其发展是城市形态与交通需求产生的原因和相互联系的纽带。在城市内部空间结构与交通需求的关系方面,模型分析表明,近年来广州城市内部居住与就业的空间均衡性增强,直接影响了交通需求的产生与分布和交通方式的选择,有利于居民就近选择就业,并使通勤交通的空间分布更加均衡;此外,居住与就业人口迁移先行,引导公共设施的发展也是近年来广州城市发展的主要特征之一;公共设施服务空间与交通需求之间存在需求作用型和供给作用型两种相互作用模式。     

长江磷和硅的输送通量

于1997年枯水期 (11月~12月) 和1998年丰水期 (8月和10月),对长江流域从金沙江至河口干流和主要支流、湖泊各种形式的磷和硅酸盐进行了调查。长江干流枯、丰期颗粒磷和总磷浓度变化几乎是同步的,上游快速增加,中、下游下降且变化不大;溶解态磷和硅酸盐浓度变化较小。枯、丰期各种形式磷和硅酸盐通量从上游至中、下游呈增加趋势。枯水期长江各种形式磷和硅酸盐通量,大部分是由中、下游贡献的,其中一半以上来自于支流和湖泊。丰水期各种形式磷和硅酸盐的输送,仅上游支流贡献了一半以上的颗粒磷,其余大部分是由干流贡献的。颗粒磷所占的比例,上游高于中、下游,丰水期高于枯水期,干流高于支流,主要与悬浮泥沙含量有关,颗粒态磷是长江磷的主要贡献者。溶解态磷的输送通量,枯水期干流中有机磷略占优势,支流中有机和无机磷各占一半;丰水期均是无机磷占优势。长江水中各种形式磷和硅酸盐的输送通量和总磷、磷酸盐的输出通量主要受径流量所控制,特别是硅酸盐通量具有比磷更加明显的随径流而增加的特征。本文提出了长江各种形式磷和硅酸盐的输送通量方程式及总磷、磷酸盐的输出通量方程式。