A case study of flood risk transfer effect caused by land development in flood-prone lowlands

Many researches mention the land development in the watershed increases the peak flow rate and volume of the surface runoff. However, another phenomenon, the land development in the lowlands with filling method probably results in flood risk transfer effect, is rarely mentioned. This study took Heshunliao Farm as study object and used SOBEK model to assess the phenomenon. The terrain of this farm was flat and low, at an elevation of about 1.3–3 m before development. A filling method has been adopted to raise the surficial elevation in the development zone to 3–5 m. The western end of the development zone is still maintained its original elevation. The storm sewer system, detention basin, and pumping stations have been built in the development zone. There are two effects in the development of the low-lying land. One is the increase in the peak outflow rate in the development zone. Under a 10-year return period rainfall, the peak outflow rate after development has increased to 9.94 cm, compared to 2.62 cm when there was no development. Another effect is that the disappearance of the original flood-accumulated space due to land development activities transfers the risk of flooding to the surrounding land. Under a 10-year return period rainfall, the flooded area of the developed area was reduced from 78.4 ha before land development to 0.32 ha after the development, while the flooded area of the western end of the development zone increased from 13.28 ha before development to 27.20 ha after development.     

Land use and land cover change and implication to watershed degradation by using GIS and remote sensing in the Koga watershed,North Western Ethiopia

Information on use/land cover change is important for planners and decision makers to implement sustainable use and management of resources. This study was intended to assess the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Koga watershed. The MSS of 1973, TM images of 1986, 1995 and 2011 were used together with survey and demographic data to detect the drivers of land cover changes. The result revealed that a remarkable LULC change occurred in the study area for the past thirty eight years. The area of cultivated and settlement has increased by 7054.6 ha, while, grass and bush lands decreased by 4846.5 and 3376 ha respectively. Wetland also declined from 580.2 ha to 68.3 ha. The growing demand for cultivable land and fuel wood were the major causes to the deterioration of grass and bush lands. Hence, the appropriate land use policy should be employed to sustain available resource in the watershed.     

Land use change assessment in coastal mangrove forests of Iran utilizing satellite imagery and CA–Markov algorithms to monitor and predict future change

Mangrove forest stores large organic carbon stocks in a setting that is highly vulnerable to climate change and direct anthropogenic influences. As such there is a need to elucidate the causes and consequences of land use change on these ecosystems that have high value in terms of ecosystem services. We examine the areal pattern of land types in a coastal region located in southern Iran over a period of 14 years to predict future loss and gain in land types to the year 2025. We applied a CA–Markov model to simulate and predict mangrove forest change. Landsat satellite images from 2000 to 2014 were used to analyze the land cover changes between soil, open water and mangroves. Major changes during this period were observed in soil and water which could be attributed to rising sea level. Furthermore, the mangrove area in the more seaward position was converted to open water due to sea-level rise. A cellular automata model was then used to predict the land cover changes that would occur by the year 2025. Results demonstrated that approximately 21 ha of mangrove area will be converted to open water, while mangroves are projected to expand by approximately 28 ha in landward direction. These changes need to be delineated to better inform precise mitigation and adaptation measures.     

Interactions between the surface water and groundwater in the western shoreline of Lake Nasser, Upper Egypt

The present study indicates that the factors controlling the hydraulic relation between surface water and groundwater at the western lake shoreline change from one locality to another. This depends upon the lithological characteristics and the major structures. In the southern sectors, sedimentation at the bottom and sides of the lake prevents the water movement to the Nubian sandstone aquifer. The potentiometric map reveals that the water level altitudes range between 170 m in the vicinity of the lakeshore line and 110 m west of the lake. The groundwater flow lines show that the main recharge to the aquifer comes from the southwest direction, as well as from the lake inland to variable distances (about 30 Km). During the present study, Darcy’s law was applied to calculate the recharge from the western shoreline of Lake Nasser to the adjacent Nubian aquifer. The maximum value of seepage was at Garf Hussein (27.71?×?10⁶ m³/year), which may be related to high permeability and hydraulic gradient. Also, it may be related to the N–S strike faults that cut the area on both sides of the Lake, and the groundwater is expected to have free circulation through the faults of this trend. The minimum value was recorded in Adindan section (0.61?×?10⁶ m³/year). This may be related to the limited recharge from the lake to the aquifer, due to the sedimentation that dislocates this recharge.     

Monitoring of Dead Sea water surface variation using multi-temporal satellite data and GIS

Remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) are very useful for environmental-related studies, particularly in the field of surface water studies such as monitoring of lakes. The Dead Sea is exposed to very high evaporating process with considerable scarcity of water sources, thus leading to a remarkable shrinkage in its water surface area. The lake suffers from dry out due to the negative balance of water cycle during the previous four decades. This paper discusses the application of RS, GIS, and Global Positioning System to estimate the lowering and the shrinkage of Dead Sea water surface over the period 1810–2005. A set of multi-temporal remote sensing images were collected and processed to show the lakes aerial extend shrinkage from 1973 up to 2004. Remote sensing data were used to extract spatial information and to compute the surface areas for Dead Sea for various years. The current study aims at estimating the fluctuation of Dead Sea level over the study period with special emphasis on the environmental impact assessment that includes the degradation level of the Dead Sea. The results indicated that there is a decrease of 20 m in the level of the Dead Sea that has occurred during the study period. Further, the results showed that the water surface area of the Dead Sea has shrunk from 934.26 km² in 1973 to 640.62 km² in 2004.     

Gully development in eastern Romania: a case study from Falciu Hills

The gullied systems from the Falciu Hills within the Chioara catchment (2997 ha) consist of both main types of gullies, discontinuous and large continuous ones along valley bottoms, and lots of ephemeral gullies. Several methods have been used to measure and estimate gully characteristics. Then, the gully development stages, the effect of the natural conditions, and especially the impact of land management on gullying in the Falciu Hills over the last two centuries have been defined. In addition, the role of gully erosion in triggering landslides has also been studied. Two main periods have been distinguished (until 1960 and 1961–2012) for assessing major characteristics of land degradation. The results show that total gully area in the Chioara catchment is 66.4 ha excepting for the ephemeral gullies, and areas occupied by gullies from the five study sub-catchments (2334 ha) account for two-thirds. Total length of the main gully network in the entire catchment is 33.2 km from which the five sub-catchments account for 71 %. The mean gully density of 1.11 km km⁻² supports the evidence that here gullying is the major environmental threat. Half of the gully areal growth and three-quarters of the new landslide area occurred over the 1961–2012 period. Delayed deforestation peaking during 1830–1930 and land conversion to arable use resulted in severe soil erosion, high aggradation along the non-gullied valley bottoms, and severe gullying. The average gully head retreat rate over the last two centuries from four trunk continuous gullies is 14 m year⁻¹, and the sediment yield from gullying only accounted for 54–69 % of the sediment mass produced by water erosion. The evolution of gullies is linked to major land-use changes in the study area. Despite a decreasing tendency of gullying and catchment area over the last half century, gullying still remains problematically high in East Romania.

     

Distribution of wetlands and salt lakes in the Yadong region of Tibet based on remote sensing,and their geo-climatic environmental changes

Based on the 16 scenes GF-1 satellite multi-spectral remote sensing images, through the adoption of data processing methods including orthorectification, geometric rectification, data fusion and image mosaic, integrated with field surveys, the remote sensing interpretation signs for the inland wetland types have been built, and the remote sensing survey of inland wetlands in Yadong region has been initiated, with six types of inland wetlands recognized in Yadong region, namely permanent rivers, seasonal rivers, lakes, salt lakes, alpine meadows, and inundated land. The spatial distribution characteristics and the spreading rules of these wetlands have also been revealed. Based on full understanding of the overall characteristics of the inland wetlands in the Yadong region, using the three phases of TM images acquired in 1989, 2003 and 2008 as well as the PMS2 data gathered by GF-1 in 2014, and the wide-range data (WFV3) gathered by GF-1 in 2020. As to the typical salt lakes, a long- time salt lakes transition study was carried out. The results show that the typical salt lakes in Yadong have been shrinking in the past three decades. The average annual shrinkage of Duoqing Co (Co means lake in Tibetan) was stronger than that of Gala Co, which are respective 87.30 hectares (usually short as ha; 1 ha equals to 0.01 km²) /a and 24.20 ha/a; the shrinkage degree of Gala Co was higher than that of Duoqing Co, shrank by 59.27% and 35.73% respectively. Based on the remote sensing survey results and an integrated analysis of the predecessors’ researchers, the reason for the shrinkage of the salt lakes is more inclined to geological factors. Geological process is manifested by a series of extensional faults at the bottom of the lake basin generated from tectonic activities, providing fluid infiltration channels, and inducing the eventual leakage of lake water to the lower strata. The result provides an important instance for understanding the evolution characteristics of wetlands and salt lakes in specific environment of the Tibetan Plateau.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.     

基于粮食安全战略下的浙江省耕地保有量研究

依据1996～2008年耕地面积与粮食产量数据,采用基于粮食安全的耕地需求量预测方法,选取总人口、粮播比例、粮食单产、复种指数和人均粮食年需求量5个指标,分析预测了2020年浙江省耕地需求量。预测结果表明,到2020年全省耕地保有量至少为204.9万公顷,由此可见,基于粮食安全的浙江省耕地保护任务的艰巨性,并提出了耕地资源利用与保护的对策建议。     

Assessment of land use/land cover dynamics vis-à-vis hydrometeorological variability in Wular Lake environs Kashmir Valley,India using multitemporal satellite data

Wular Lake, one of the largest freshwater lakes of Jhelum River Basin, is showing signs of deterioration due to the anthropogenic impact and changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) and hydrometeorological climate of the region. The present study investigated the impacts of temporal changes in LULC and meteorological and hydrological parameters to evaluate the current status of Wular Lake environs using multisensor, multitemporal satellite and observatory data. Satellite images acquired for the years 1992, 2001, 2005, and 2008 were used for determining changes in the LULC in a buffer area of 5 km² around the Wular Lake. LULC mapping and change analysis using the visual interpretation technique indicated significant changes around the Wular Lake during the last two decades. Reduction in lake area from 24 km² in 1992 to 9 km² in 2008 (?62.5 %) affected marshy lands, the habitat of migratory birds, which also exhibited drastic reduction from 85 km² in 1992 to 5 km² in 2008 (?94.117 %). Marked development of settlements (642.85 %) in the peripheral area of the Wular Lake adversely affected its varied aquatic flora and fauna. Change in climatic conditions, to a certain extent, is also responsible for the decrease in water level and water spread of the lake as witnessed by decreased discharge in major tributaries (Erin and Madhumati) draining into the Wular Lake.     

Land transformation assessment using the integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques: a case study of Al-Anbar Province,Iraq

Human activities and climate changes significantly affect our environment, altering hydrologic cycles. Several environmental, social, political, and economical factors contribute to land transformation as well as environmental changes. This study first identified the most critical factors that affect the environment in Al-Anbar city including population growth, urbanization expansion, bare land expansion, and reduction in vegetation cover. The combination of remote sensing data and fuzzy analytic hierarch process (Fuzzy AHP) enabled exploration of land transformations and environmental changes in the study area during 2001 to 2013 in terms of long and short-term changes. Results of land transformation showed that the major changes in water bodies increased radically (94 %) from the long-term change in 2001 to 2013 because of water policies. In addition, the urban class expanded in two short-term periods (2001–2007 and 2007–2013), representing net changes of 46 and 60 %, respectively. Finally, barren land showed 25 % reduction in the first period because of the huge expansion of water in the lake; a small percentage of growth gain was observed in the second period. Based on the land transformation results, the environmental degradation assessment showed that the study area generally had high level of environmental degradation. The degradation was mostly in the center and the north part of the study area. This study suggested for further studies to include other factors that also responsible for environmental degradation such as water quality and desertification threatening.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover and their impacts on potential dust source regions in the Tarim Basin,NW China

Human-driven dynamics of land cover types in the Tarim Basin are able to affect potential dust source regions and provide particles for dust storms. Analyses about dynamics of potential dust source regions are useful for understanding the effects of human activities on the fragile ecosystem in the extremely arid zone and also provide scientific evidence for the rational land development in the future. This paper therefore selected the Tarim Basin, NW China, as a representative study area to reveal spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover and their impacts on potential dust source regions. The results showed that farmland, desert and forest increased by 28.63, 0.64 and 29.27%, while grassland decreased by 10.29% during 1990–2010. The largest reclamation, grassland loss and desertification were 639.17 × 10³, 2350.42 × 10³ and 1605.86 × 10³ ha during 1995–2000. The relationship between reclamation and grassland loss was a positive correlation, while a highly positive correlation was 0.993 between the desertification and grassland loss at different stages. The most serious dust source region was the desertification during 1990–2010 (1614.58 thousand ha), and the serious region was stable desert (40,631.21 thousand ha). The area of the medium and low dust source region was 499.08 × 10³ and 2667.27 × 10³ ha. Dramatic reclamation resulted in the desertification by destroying natural vegetation and breaking the balance of water allocation in various regions.     

Ecological health effects of rural livelihood and poverty reduction strategies in the Lake Bosomtwe basin of Ghana

Despite the growing recognition that poverty and environmental degradation remain a threat to achieving sustainable development goals, poverty–environment relationship is rarely explored. Crucial is the changing geography of the Lake Bosomtwe basin of Ghana. In this paper we examine how intensive and extensive fishing and farming in the name of livelihood sustainability, poverty reduction and human well-being undermine ecological health within the lake basin by subjecting data collected from 250 respondents to factor analysis. From a geo-referenced and processed classification of remotely sensed and GIS images over three periods using the maximum likelihood classifier algorithm, the results showed that, built up areas within the lake basin increased from 543.64 ha in 1986 to 7682.97 ha in 2008. Dense forest and rangeland decreased from 8698.95 and 22,660.88 ha over the same period to 1416.33 and 8577.99 ha in 2008 respectively. Other indicators such as water levels and fish stock also saw drastic reduction. The results further showed that major changes in the ecological landscape of the basin over the years are the outcomes of both direct and indirect drivers such as slash and burn agriculture, unregulated development of tourism facilities, overfishing, use of illegal fishing gear, poverty, annual overturn, climate change, market and institutional failures. Hence, a paradigm shift from the traditional site level forest restoration efforts to a landscape level, and a “conservation first principle” as a top priority in planning for the future, as well as focus on non-farm activities to reduce pressure on the natural capital are required.     

Land cover and land use change related to shrimp farming in coastal areas of Quang Ninh,Vietnam using remotely sensed data

Rapid development of shrimp farming may lead to unrecognized and undesirable changes of land cover/land use patterns in coastal areas. Of special concern is the loss of mangrove forest in coastal areas such as Quang Ninh, Vietnam, which is adjacent to the World Heritage-listed Ha Long Bay. Understanding the status and changes of land cover/land use for coastal shrimp farms and mangrove forests can support environmental protection and decision-making for sustainable development in coastal areas. Within this context, this paper uses the 1999/2001 Landsat ETM+ and the 2008 ALOS AVNIR-2 imagery to investigate the contraction and expansion of shrimp farms and mangrove forests in coastal areas of Ha Long and Mong Cai, which now have a high concentration of intensive and semi-intensive shrimp farms. Images were separately analyzed and classified before using post-classification comparisons to detect land cover/land use changes in the study area. The results of this study found that the area of mangrove forest has been reduced by an estimated 927.5 ha in Ha Long and 1,144.4 ha in Mong Cai, while shrimp farming areas increased by an estimated 1,195.9 and 1,702.5 ha, respectively, over the same period. The majority of shrimp farms in Mong Cai were established at the expense of mangrove forest (49.4 %) while shrimp farms in Ha Long were mainly constructed on areas previously occupied by bare ground (46.5 %) and a significant proportion also replaced mangroves (23.9 %). The remarkable rate of mangrove loss and shrimp farming expansion detected in this study, over a relatively short time scale indicate that greater awareness of environmental impacts of shrimp farm expansion is required if this industry is to be sustainable, the important estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems are to be protected over the long term, and the capturing and storing of carbon in mangrove systems are to be enhanced for global climate change mitigation and for use as carbon offsets.     

洞庭湖萎缩对湖内洪水影响

为了更好地理解湖泊萎缩对湖内洪水过程的影响,在假定洞庭湖将继续萎缩的前提下,通过建立荆江-洞庭湖水动力模型,定量分析洞庭湖萎缩对湖内洪水的影响。研究结果表明,湖内水位及洪峰流量随湖泊面积的萎缩而增加,洪峰水位到达时刻随着湖泊萎缩而提前。若遇1996年型洪水,洞庭湖面积若从目前的2 670 km2减小至1 380 km2时,西洞庭湖及南洞庭湖内最高水位将抬高2.0 m左右,东洞庭湖水位将抬升0.4 m左右,城陵矶站点洪峰水位到达时刻将提前约11 h,洪峰流量增加约4 800 m3/s。因此,若洞庭湖湖泊面积在目前基础上（面积2 670 km2）继续萎缩,湖区特别是西洞庭湖及南洞庭湖将面临更为严峻的洪水灾害。虽然湖泊萎缩对西洞庭湖与南洞庭湖内水面坡降影响较小,但东洞庭湖内水位同时受湖泊萎缩及长江来流的影响,水面坡降发生较大变化,在距离蔡家洲80~110 km（鹿角站附近）河段水面坡降出现大幅增大。     

Spatio-temporal analysis of groundwater levels and projection of future trend of Agra city,Uttar Pradesh,India

Access to water resources is one of the major challenges being faced worldwide. Water scarcity, particularly groundwater resource, is the major ubiquitous concern for the country. Almost half of the country is reeling under severe ground water crisis due to anthropogenic and natural reasons (basalt rock surface). Agra region situated in the western part of Uttar Pradesh state of India has a semi-arid climate. The study area, which has a history of water scarcity since medieval ages, has seen a spurt of acute water shortage in recent times owing to the expansion of a very dense built-up area and excessive haulage accompanied by decline in rainfall. A study was under taken for identifying the trends in pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels for Agra city, Uttar Pradesh. Pre-monsoon and post-monsoon groundwater depth data of 16 observation wells for the 2007–2016 period were collected and analyzed using ARC GIS 10.2 software. The rainfall trend during the study period was also studied to understand its role in groundwater fluctuation level. Statistical tests like Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and linear regression model were applied to understand the trend and rate of change in groundwater level. The land use/land cover map of the study area was integrated with groundwater map to have a primary understanding of the spatial trend of groundwater scenario of the study area. The result obtained is quite alarming for the city’s groundwater scenario. Results showed that the groundwater levels had significantly declined during 2007–2016. Average rates of water level decline were 0.228 and 0.267 m/year during pre- and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. There was a rapid decline in water level between 2008 and 2009 and between 2013 and 2014. The average rate of decline of pre- and post-monsoon groundwater level in the city during this period is 0.32 and 0.30 m/year, respectively. Significant decrease in groundwater level is found in 84.21% of wells for pre- and post-monsoon as obtained through Mann-Kendall analysis at 95% confidence level. During pre-monsoon season, the rate of decline according to Sen’s slope estimator varied between 0.74 and 2.05 m/year. Almost similar picture of decline is portrayed through linear regression slope wherein the computed rate of decline varied between 0.75 and 2.05 m/year. During post-monsoon, the rate of decline according to Sen’s slope varied between 0.13 and 1.94 m/year. Similar trend statistic is obtained through linear regression method where the declining rate is between 0.14 and 1.91 m/year. Comparison of the three statistical tests indicates similar nature of declining trend. The result of this research raises concern about the future of groundwater resources in Agra city. The findings of this study will assist planners and decision-makers in developing better land use and water resource management.     

Land degradation risk assessment in Al-Sawda terraces,Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Monitoring of soil properties is a significant process and plays an important role about how it can be used sustainably. This study was performed in a local area in Sawda Mountains KSA to map out some soil properties and assess their variability within the area under different land cover. Soil sampling was carried out in four different sites using the grid sampling technique. Ten samples were collected in each location within a 10 by 10 km area; soil was sampled at 0–30-cm depth. The soil samples were air-dried, crushed, and passed through a 2-mm sieve before analyzing it for pH, EC, CaCO₃, organic matter contents, and bulk density. The thematic maps of these characteristics were produced using ArcGIS 10.0 software. Finally, the land degradation was assessed using three factors: soil salinization, compaction, and edibility. The obtained results showed that the high risk of soil compaction, salinization, and erodibility occupied an area 5.6 ha (17.5%), 3.7 ha (11.54%), and 8.1 ha (25.3%), respectively, in the surface soil layer. The land degradation risk in the study area due to salinization was low to high; however, the degree of soil compaction was moderate to very high. The K-factor (soil erodibility) in the area ranged between 0.1 and 0.35 Mg h MJ^?1 mm^?1, and most of the study area was located in moderate to high erodibility classes.     

Mapping groundwater recharge potential using GIS approach in Darwha block

Groundwater is the most important source of water in meeting irrigation, drinking, and other needs in India. The assessment of the potential zone for its recharge is critical for sustainable usage, quality management, and food security. This study reports alternative mapping of the groundwater recharge potential of a selected block by including large-scale soil data. Thematic layers of soil, geomorphology, slope, land use land cover, topographical wetness index, and drainage density of Darwha block (District Yavatmal, Maharashtra, India) were generated and integrated in a geographic information system environment. The topographic maps, thematic maps, field data, and satellite image were processed, classified, and weighted using analytical hierarchical process for their contribution to groundwater recharge. The layers were integrated by weighted linear combination method in the GIS environment to generate four groundwater potential zones viz., “poor,” “poor to moderate,” “moderate to high,” and “high.” Based on the generated groundwater potential map, about 9830 ha (12%) of the study area was categorized as high potential for recharge, 25,558 ha (31%) as poor to moderate, 33,398 ha (40%) as moderate to high, and 12,565 ha (15%) as poor potential zone. The zonation corresponds well with the field data on greater well density (0.22/ha) and irrigated crop area (27%) in the high potential zone as against 0.02 wells/ha and only 6% irrigated area in the poor zone. The map is recommended for use in regulating groundwater development decisions and judicious expenditure on drilling new wells by farmers and the state authorities.     

Hydrological and nitrogen distributed catchment modeling to assess the impact of future climate change at Trichonis Lake, western Greece

According to regional climatic models, climate change may affect Mediterranean lakes significantly in terms of water availability and quality. Trichonis Lake catchment covers a semi-mountainous area of 403 km² including the largest Greek lake by volume (2.6?×?10⁹?m³), located in western Greece. The impact of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the lake, in terms of lake water level and nutrient concentrations, has been assessed. Water balance estimates and geographical information system tools were then used to set up a physically based, spatially distributed model. The calibrated model was simulated for two future scenarios specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (more optimistic), which involved temperature/evaporation/evapotranspiration increase and small precipitation decrease. The model was calibrated efficiently for the 1990–1992 period. The two basic climatic scenarios illustrated that the responses of the lake water levels will show a decrease of 24.2 and 12 cm, respectively, and an increase of total nitrogen concentrations by 3.4 and 10%, in relation to the early 1990s values. These important findings suggest that mitigation and optimum management plans should be developed to eliminate the aforementioned climate change impacts and further research should follow.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls residues in surface sediments of the eutrophic Chaohu Lake (China): characteristics, risk, and correlation with trophic status

Twenty-eight polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) congeners were measured in surface sediments from Chaohu Lake to assess their characteristics, potential risk, and the correlation with lake trophic status. PCB levels ranged from 11.074 to 42.712 ng g^?1 dry weight (d.w.) in the western lake and 2.017 to 20.189 ng g^?1 d.w. in the eastern lake. The highest concentrations were found at the sites near the inlets of western lake tributary rivers where big cities and industrial centers are located. Congeners concentrations showed decreasing order of tetra-CB > tri-CB > deca-CB (PCB-209 detected) > penta-CB > hexa-CB > di-CB > hepta-CB > Octa-CB. It indicated that light and heavy Aroclor mixtures were simultaneously used surrounding the lake basin. PCB levels in the western lake are potentially dangerous to humans and the local fauna. There was a significant positive relationship between tetra-CB (one abundant PCB congener) concentration distribution and sediment grain size in the 16–64 μm fraction, whereas a negative correlation was found in the 4–8 μm fraction. Furthermore, PCB distributions were positively correlated with the total organic carbon of sediments and lake trophic status, especially in the more seriously polluted western lake zone. However, the correlation completely disappeared in eastern lake zone. It suggested that PCB contamination might be attributed to industrial wastewaters and domestic sewages from western lake basin, reaching the lake through rivers, rains and floods.     

Forecasting areas vulnerable to forest conversion using artificial neural network and GIS (case study: northern Ilam forests,Ilam province,Iran)

Forest conversion due to illegal logging and agricultural expansion is a major problem that is hampering biodiversity conservation efforts in the Zagros region. Yet, areas vulnerable to forest conversion are unknown. This study aims to predict the spatial distribution of deforestation in western Iran. Landsat images dated 1988, 2001, and 2007 are classified in order to generate digital deforestation maps which locate deforestation and forest persistence areas. Meanwhile, in order to examine deforestation factors’ investigation, deforestation maps with physiographic and human spatial variables are entered into the model. Areas vulnerable to forest changes in the Zagros forest region are predicted by a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) with a Markov chain model. The results show that about 19,294 ha forest areas are deforested in the last 19 years. The predictive performance of the model appears successful, which is validated using the actual land cover map of the same year from Landsat data. The validated map is found to be 94 % accurate. The validation is also tested using the relative operating characteristic approach which yielded a value of 0.96. The model is then further extended to predict forest cover losses for 2020. The MLPNN approach was found to have a great potential to predict land use/land cover changes because it permits developing complex, nonlinear models.