Analysis of the 1 November 2015 heavy rainfall episode in Algarve by using weather radar and rain gauge data

The trigger for the study presented in this paper was the extreme rain event of 1 November 2015 in Algarve region. The main objective was the analysis and improvement of the precipitation field using a radar–rain gauge merging method. Ordinary kriging with radar-based error correction has been applied to hourly values of precipitation from both sensors. The merging technique allowed keeping the better radar spatial pattern, being the respective estimates corrected by the rain gauges observations. The procedure led to a reduction in the errors of the precipitation estimates, evaluated by cross-validation, when compared to univariate interpolation of rain gauge observation or radar rain product. Finally, some discussion is also added on the problematic of flooding in urban areas, especially those with absent or deficient urban planning.     

Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north-south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north-east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the gird resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.     

卫星资料在暴雨数值模拟中的应用研究

分析研究了2001年5月15日～8月15日3个月GMS卫星资料在湖南资水流域实时数值预报中的应用以及将TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)卫星上的TMI(Microwave Imager)雨水资料适时融入数值模式改变当时模式中雨水分布场,数值模拟还研究了发生在淮河流域的10次暴雨过程。结果表明:资水流域3个月的实时预报效果良好,准确预报出其中出现的3次致洪暴雨和1次特大暴雨;对淮河流域暴雨,由于TMI资料空间分辨率较高,能够很好地反映中小尺度系统的空间结构,加入模式后使得模拟出来的降雨强度,雨量中心时空分布更接近实际情况,10次暴雨过程的TS评分较不使用TMI资料更好。     

The simulation of heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai: impact of horizontal resolutions and cumulus parameterization schemes

In this study, the simulation of an extreme weather event like heavy rainfall over Mumbai (India) on July 26, 2005 has been attempted with different horizontal resolutions using the Advanced Research Weather Research Forecast model version 2.0.1 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA. The study uses the Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) and the Grell–Devenyi ensemble (GDE) cumulus parameterization schemes in single and nested domain configurations. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different predicted parameters like upper and lower level circulations, moisture, temperature, and rainfall. The large-scale circulation features, moisture, and temperature were compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyses. The rainfall prediction was assessed quantitatively by comparing rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission products and the observed station values reported in the Indian Daily Weather Reports from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall was done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency bias, threat scores (TS), and equitable threat scores (ETS). It is found that in all simulations, both in single and nested domains, the GDE scheme has outperformed the BMJ scheme for the simulation of rainfall for this specific event.     

Assimilation of Doppler weather radar observations in a mesoscale model for the prediction of rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems

Obtaining an accurate initial state is recognized as one of the biggest challenges in accurate model prediction of convective events. This work is the first attempt in utilizing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Doppler radar data in a numerical model for the prediction of mesoscale convective complexes around Chennai and Kolkata. Three strong convective events both over Chennai and Kolkata have been considered for the present study. The simulation experiments have been carried out using fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) mesoscale model (MM5) version 3.5.6. The variational data assimilation approach is one of the most promising tools available for directly assimilating the mesoscale observations in order to improve the initial state. The horizontal wind derived from the DWR has been used alongwith other conventional and non-conventional data in the assimilation system. The preliminary results from the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) experiments are encouraging. The simulated rainfall has also been compared with that derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The encouraging result from this study can be the basis for further investigation of the direct assimilation of radar reflectivity data in 3DVAR system. The present study indicates that Doppler radar data assimilation improves the initial field and enhances the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) skill.     

Real-time nowcast of a cloudburst and a thunderstorm event with assimilation of Doppler weather radar data

Extreme weather events such as cloudburst and thunderstorms are great threat to life and property. It is a great challenge for the forecasters to nowcast such hazardous extreme weather events. Mesoscale model (ARPS) with real-time assimilation of DWR data has been operationally implemented in India Meteorological Department (IMD) for real-time nowcast of weather over Indian region. Three-dimensional variational (ARPS3DVAR) technique and cloud analysis procedure are utilized for real-time data assimilation in the model. The assimilation is performed as a sequence of intermittent cycles and complete process (starting from reception, processing and assimilation of DWR data, running of ARPS model and Web site updation) takes less than 20 minutes. Thus, real-time nowcast for next 3 h from ARPS model is available within 20 minutes of corresponding hour. Cloudburst event of September 15, 2011, and thunderstorm event of October 22, 2010, are considered to demonstrate the capability of ARPS model to nowcast the extreme weather events in real time over Indian region. Results show that in both the cases, ARPS3DVAR and cloud analysis technique are able to extract hydrometeors from radar data which are transported to upper levels by the strong upward motion resulting in the distribution of hydrometeors at various isobaric levels. Dynamic and thermodynamic structures of cloudburst and thunderstorm are also well simulated. Thus, significant improvement in the initial condition is noticed. In the case of cloudburst event, the model is able to capture the sudden collisions of two or more clouds during 09–10 UTC. Rainfall predicted by the model during cloudburst event is over 100 mm which is very close to the observed rainfall (117 mm). The model is able to predict the cloudburst with slight errors in time and space. Real-time nowcast of thunderstorm shows that movement, horizontal extension, and north–south orientation of thunderstorm are well captured during first hour and deteriorate thereafter. The amount of rainfall predicted by the model during thunderstorm closely matches with observation with slight errors in the location of rainfall area. The temporal and spatial information predicted by ARPS model about the sudden collision/merger and broken up of convective cells, intensification, weakening, and maintaining intensity of convective cells has added value to a human forecast.     

新疆阿尔泰山额尔齐斯河源区不同降水观测方法对比分析及1980-2015年降水变化研究

合理评估不同降水观测仪器的精度是评价区域降水变化的前提。基于阿尔泰山额尔齐斯河源区库威水文站ø20 cm标准雨量筒的人工降水观测和库威积雪站T-200b的自动降水观测,对比分析了T-200b和ø20 cm标准雨量筒的观测精度,在此基础上,基于1980-2015年库威水文站的降水观测,分析了阿尔泰山额尔齐斯河源区的降水变化。结果表明：两种方法观测的日降水、月降水和年降水量均具有良好的相关性;两种方法观测液态降水相关性要明显优于固态降水;随着降雨强度的增加,两种观测方法的相关性显著增强。总体上,T-200b观测的降水量较ø20 cm标准雨量筒偏高。1980-2015年间额尔齐斯河源区的年降水量以2005年为转折点呈现"先增加后减小"的变化趋势,且冷季（11月至次年3月）的降水增加显著,冷季的降水占年降水量的比例呈现逐渐增加的变化趋势。降水和融雪过程的变化已导致春季融雪水文过程发生改变,进一步合理评估地表可利用水资源的年内重分配是该地区水安全的重要保障。     

京九铁路江淮段降水型路基坍塌的地质、降水条件分析

京九铁路是新开辟的连接北京和香港九龙的南北大动脉,1996年9月正式通车。其中江淮段指淮河与长江之间的 306.1 km区段,自河南淮滨站至湖北蕲春站。由于沿线地形复杂,降水强度大,路基坍塌成为安全运行的主要危害。据统计,1997－2007年间,发生各种坍塌灾害455次,毁坏路段总长约53 000 m。运用京九铁路江淮段地质资料、1997－2007年 11 a间所发生的路基坍塌资料和铁路沿线10个气象站雨量实况资料,对京九铁路江淮段地质地岩状况进行了分类,分级处理了不同地质条件下路基坍塌的发生频次和强度,详细分析了路基坍塌发生前24～72 h雨量,得到诱发京九铁路江淮段路基坍塌灾害的地质条件和降水阀值,并对各种不同地质条件下发生路基坍塌的降水阀值及其超过阀值后灾害次数上升情况进行评述,绘制出京九铁路江淮段路基坍塌易发程度等级分区图,提出了相应的处治方法和系统图。可见不利地质条件与强降水共同作用是导致某些路段路基集中坍塌的根本原因。     

Evaluation of rain gauge network in arid regions using geostatistical approach: case study in northern Oman

A geostatistical approach based on ordinary kriging is presented for the evaluation and the augmentation of an existing rain gauge network. The evaluation is based on estimating the percentage of the area that achieves a targeted level of acceptable accuracy. The variances of kriging estimation erros at un-gauged locations were assumed to be normally distributed. Kriging estimation erros with a probability that equals to or exceeds a given threshold value of acceptance probability were assumed to have satisfactory accuracies. The percentage of the area that achieved the targeted probability of acceptance is delineated and used to judge the overall performance of the existing rain gauge network. A study area in northern Oman located in Sohar governorate is selected as the pilot case. The area has 34 rain gauges and it is characterized by a terrain surface that varies from coastal plain to mountains. For a threshold value of 0.85, and 0.90 of acceptance probability, the existing network achieved area of acceptable probability of 88.71 and 77.72 %, respectively. For a success criterion of 80 %, the existing rain gauge network indicated acceptable performance for acceptance probability threshold of 0.85 and inadequate performance is noticed in the case of probability threshold of 0.90, which necessitated further network augmentation. A sequential algorithm for ranking and prioritization of the existing rain gauges is used to classify the existing rain gauges into base and non-base rain gauges. The base rain gauge network for mean annual rainfall comprised about 29 of the existing rain gauges. The identified non-base rain gauges were sequentially relocated to achieve higher levels of percentage of area with acceptable accuracy. The percentage of area with acceptable accuracy increased from 88.71 % for the original rain gauge network to about 94.51 % for the augmented network by adding four rain gages at probability acceptance threshold of 0.85. It also increased from 77.72 % for the existing network to 90.50 % for the augmented rain gauge network at acceptance threshold of 0.9.     

Assessing the potential for significant and episodic recharge in southwestern Australia using rainfall data

Agricultural practices in semi-arid parts of southwestern Australia have increased recharge and raised groundwater levels. As a result, land salinization has occurred. Managers aim to address the problem by reducing recharge, but it is not known whether all recharge is regular and seasonal or whether a substantial component is episodic (i.e. occurs in irregular pulses). Approaches that reduce regular recharge may not be effective at reducing recharge that is episodic. Water balances were used to assess the potential for recharge to be episodic at 53 sites throughout Western Australia. The results show that, for the conditions modeled, a substantial proportion of the recharge in drier parts of the agricultural areas occurred episodically, and that direct episodic recharge could be as important in some semi-arid areas as in arid regions. Therefore, mean annual rainfall is not a strong predictor of the ratio of episodic to total recharge at a site. The model indicates that in agricultural areas, most significant and episodic recharge events occurred over just a few days in winter months, when rainfall was dominated by frontal systems. However, substantial episodic recharge also resulted from large storms during the months of January, February, and March. The implication is that it will be difficult to reduce recharge substantially, and thus control salinity, as long as agriculture relies heavily on shallow-rooted winter-growing plants. Electronic Publication     

台风暴雨型浅层滑坡失稳机理研究

针对台风暴雨耦合作用下浅层滑坡的失稳机理进行研究。在总结福建台风暴雨型滑坡灾害特征的基础上,提出风荷载对斜坡变形失稳的影响机理是通过植被造成坡体开裂,从而影响坡体的入渗规律。应用GeoStudio软件计算台风暴雨入渗条件下裂隙坡体中暂态非饱和渗流场的变化,以及对斜坡稳定性的影响。计算结果表明：裂隙坡体由于在裂隙处形成集中入渗点,雨水的入渗速度大于无裂隙的坡体,坡体达到饱和状态所需要的时间大为缩短。裂隙深度、间距对滑坡稳定系数的影响较大,裂隙深度越大、间距越小,在相同的降雨条件下滑坡的稳定系数越小,滑坡失稳需要的降雨时长越短。裂隙宽度对滑坡稳定性的影响相对较小。     

Analysis of a solar eruptive event on November 4, 2001, using CORONAS-F/SPIRIT data

We analyze large-scale solar activity following the eruption of a very powerful, geoeffective coronal mass ejection in the 23rd solar cycle, observed at 175, 284, and 304 Å on November 4, 2001, using data from the CORONAS-F/SPIRIT telescope. In particular, we have shown that the restructuring of the magnetic field above the eruption center was accompanied by the formation of a multicomponent post-eruptive arcade, which was observed in all three bands over many hours and had an extent of the order of 0.5R_⊙. Two kinds of dimmings were observed, i.e., compact dimmings on either side of this arcade and channeled dimmings along some extended features beyond the active region. The intensity in the dimmings decreased by several tens of percent. The enhanced emission observed at the top of the post-eruptive arcade can be due to energy release in the course of magnetic reconnection high in the corona at the relaxation stage of the perturbed magnetic field to a new equilibrium state with a closed configuration. It can also be due to an enhanced emission measure because of the oblique direction of the line of sight crossing both loop tops and footpoint regions. The spatial coincidence of the main dimmings in lines corresponding to different temperatures indicates that a plasma outflow from the transition region and coronal structures with opened field lines are responsible for these dimmings. Variations in the plasma temperature associated with coronal mass ejections probably play an important role for some dimmings, which appear different in different lines.     

Landslides triggered by the 23 November 2000 rainfall event in the Imperia Province, Western Liguria, Italy

From mid-October to 22 November 2000, the western Liguria Region of Italy experienced prolonged and intense rainfall, with cumulative values exceeding 1000 mm in 45 days. The severe rainfall sequence ended on November 23 with a high-intensity storm that dumped more than 180 mm of rain in 24 h. The high-intensity event caused flooding and triggered more than 1000 soils slips and debris flows and a few large, complex landslides. Slope failures caused three fatalities and severe damage to roads, private homes, and agriculture. Large (1:13,000) and very large (1:5000) scale colour aerial photographs were taken 45 days after the event over the areas most affected by the landslides. Through the interpretation of the 334 photographs covering an area of 500 km², we prepared a landslide inventory map that shows 1204 landslides, for a total landslide area of 1.6 km². We identified the rainfall conditions that triggered landslides in the Armea valley using cumulative- and continuous-rainfall data, combined with detailed information on the time of landslide occurrence. Landslide activity initiated 8 to 10 h after the beginning of the storm, and the most abundant activity occurred in response to rainfall intensities of 8 to 10 mm per hour. For the Ceriana Municipality, an area where the landslides were numerous in November 2000, we also collected information about a historical event that occurred on 8–11 December 1910 and triggered abundant landslides resulting in severe economic damage. A comparison of the damage caused by the historical and the recent landslide events indicated that damage caused by the 1910 historical event was more diffused but less costly than the damage caused by the 2000 event.     

Exploiting historical rainfall and landslide data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds

Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation. In this context, the aim of this paper is exploiting historical landslide and rainfall data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy. The hourly rainfall events that caused landslides occurred in the twentieth century were specifically identified and reconstructed. A procedure was proposed to automatically convert rain guages charts recorded on paper tape into digital format and then to provide the cumulative rainfall hyetograph in digital format. This procedure is based on a segmentation followed by signal recognition techniques which allow to digitalize and to recognize the hyetograph automatically. The role of rainfall prior to the landslide events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall occurred 5, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. Finally, cumulated rainfall duration thresholds for different exceedance probability levels were determined. The obtained thresholds resulted in agreement with the regional curves proposed by other authors for the same area; antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides.     

Groundwater potential zone assessment in Wadi Watir area,Egypt using radar data and GIS

The exploration of new locations for possible groundwater potentiality is required to support the needs of urban and agricultural activities in arid regions such as Wadi Watir basin. The aim of this study is to locate new groundwater wells that can help overcome the water shortage. In order to define favorable zones for groundwater potentiality, several essential factors contributing to groundwater potentiality were identified. These factors include textural classification of alluvial deposits, lithological units, surface and subsurface structures, topographic parameters, geomorphological features and land use/land cover. A hydrogeological prospective model was developed using spatial data which represent these factors. For final groundwater potential map, all factors were converted to raster data to integrate spatially as important thematic layers based on weightage analysis. The groundwater potential map was classified to five classes including very poor to very good potential. The classes of groundwater potential map were checked against the distribution of the groundwater wells, Bedouin communities and agriculture areas, which present a general knowledge of groundwater potential in the study area.     

Mechanism of a long-runout landslide triggered by the August 1998 heavy rainfall in Fukushima Prefecture,Japan

Heavy rainfall from 26 to 31 August 1998 triggered many landslides in Nishigo Village of southern Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. The Hiegaesi landslide, a long-runout landslide with travel angle of 11°, which occurred in loamy volcanic-ash/pumice layer and was deposited in a nearby rice paddy, was investigated. In an observation pit dug in the middle part of the landslide deposit, the sliding zone just above the deflected rice plants was observed, and it was confirmed that grain crushing occurred in the sliding zone. The triggering and sliding mechanisms of this landslide then were investigated by ring-shear tests in laboratory. For the triggering mechanism, one saturated naturally drained test (test A: torque-controlled test) and one saturated undrained test (test B: speed-controlled test) were conducted on the samples taken from the source area of the landslide. Even in the naturally drained test opening the upper drain valve of the shear box, a temporary liquefaction occurred. In the undrained test, excess pore-pressure was generated along with shearing, and “sliding-surface liquefaction” phenomenon was observed. The effective stress and shear resistance finally decreased to near zero. These results can explain the observed phenomenon of small friction resistance like a flow of liquid when the sliding mass slid out of the source area. For the sliding mechanism of the landslide in the rice paddy, saturated undrained test (test C: speed-controlled test) was performed on soil sample above the deflected rice plants. The apparent friction angle obtained in this test was 8°. In addition, the residual friction angle measured after test B and test C was the same value of 41°. Combining with the observation on the shear zone in the ring-shear box after test C, it is concluded that, during the sliding in rice paddy, the undrained shear strength of the soil layer itself mainly influenced the high mobility of the landslide, probably because the friction between rice plants and soils is greater than the undrained shear strength inside the soil mass.     

Evaluation of rainfall and wetland water area variability at Thirlmere Lakes using Landsat time-series data

Thirlmere Lakes is a group of five freshwater wetlands in the southwest fringe of Sydney, Australia, that is subject to cyclic wetting and drying. The lakes are surrounded by activities that have led to increasing pressure on the local surface and groundwater supply including farming and mining. The mine has been operating for more than 30 years, and in recent times, there has been speculation that the surface subsidence and underground pumping may have some impact on surface water and groundwater hydrology. A study was undertaken using satellite imagery to examine the relation between water area changes and rainfall variability. The study utilised Landsat time-series data during the period 1982–2014 to calculate changes in the lake water area (LA), through the normalised difference water index (NDWI) threshold. High classification accuracy was achieved using NDWI against high-resolution data that are available for the years 2008 (88.4 %), 2010 (92.8 %), and 2013 (96.9 %). The LA measurement was correlated against 11 historic observations that occurred in 2009, 2010, and 2011 during drier wetland conditions. Correlation analysis of the LA with the residual rainfall mass spread across the past 30 years has found that rainfall variability is a major dominant factor associated with the wetland changes. The underground mining operations, if verified by independent investigations, probably play a minor or negligible contributor to variations in total wetland area during the study period. This study has demonstrated that remote sensing is a technique that can be used to augment limited historic data.     

Statistical characteristics and risk zoning of different duration heavy rainfall in Shanxi

Natural Hazards - Based on different duration heavy rainfall data and the associated disaster situation, geographic information, socio-economic characteristics, river network density, and...