国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析

在整理、介绍主要国际组织、国家、研究机构和一些学者所提出的温室气体减排情景方案、减排目标和设想的基础上,对当前国际上主要的温室气体减排情景方案的温室气体减排目标、大气温室气体浓度目标和温度控制目标进行了归纳、比较和综合分析。研究结果表明：①国际组织和主要国家对温度升高的控制目标总体以2℃为主,即到21世纪末,将大气温度控制在不高于工业革命前2℃的范围内;②国际组织和主要国家的温室气体减排方案一般都倾向于在2050年将大气温室气体浓度控制在450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e（二氧化碳当量）的范围内,但各个方案中有关具体的减排责任分配、减排措施和减排量分歧仍然较大;③在确定温室气体减排目标和减排配额时,国际组织和主要国家一般都按照“共同但有区别”的原则,倾向于为发达国家制定减排目标,但也有个别方案认为发展中国家也应承担量化的减排义务。     

陆地生态系统碳汇在实现“双碳”目标中的作用和建议

2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和(简称“双碳”)是我国对国际社会的庄严承诺,已被纳入生态文明建设的总体布局。生态系统碳汇是实现“双碳”目标的重要手段,也是林业和草原实现高质量发展的必然要求。国际有关机构对全球森林、草地和湿地生态系统的碳储量和碳循环进行了评估。自1990年以来,附件一国家(指《联合国气候变化框架公约》附件一列出的经济合作发展组织中所有发达国家和经济转型国家)对本国的碳排放和碳汇进行估算,编制了年度温室气体清单; 我国也编制了5次国家温室气体清单。这些工作对我国开展应对气候变化的研究提供了基础。提出了如下建议: 在编制“双碳” 路线图和时间表时,既要考虑我国生态系统碳汇与能源和工业领域碳排放在区域空间分布和时间维度上的差异性,也要考虑生态系统同时所具有的碳汇和碳排放的特殊性; 生态系统碳汇是碳达峰的非选项,是碳中和的必选项; 生态系统碳汇要遵循国家实现“双碳”目标的基本原则,要将生态系统碳汇作为国家生态建设和保护工程的主要目标,提高碳汇计量和监测能力,完善市场和融资机制。     

Optimal pricing of the Taiwan carbon trading market based on a demand–supply model

This study establishes theoretical models of supply and demand for carbon trading and proposes conditions for optimal trading prices and periods. Taiwan’s carbon market is used to verify the validity of the models. Simulations and empirical analysis position firms that emit greenhouse gases as the market buyers, and landowners that convert agricultural lands into plantation forests as the market sellers. The study compares four trading scenarios to determine optimal trading prices and time periods. There were four key conclusions. First, the higher the buyer’s cost to reduce carbon emissions, the higher the demand price is in the carbon trading market. The longer the trading period, the higher the carbon offsets, and the higher the demand price is for emissions trading. Second, the higher the emission trading price, the longer the optimal forest rotation period is for landowners. If emission costs do not exist at the time of logging, landowners are encouraged to log early, reducing the length of rotation periods. Furthermore, as the extension period in the trading scenarios increases, landowners’ costs increase, raising the market equilibrium price. Third, when landowners participate in forest carbon trading mechanisms or carbon subsidy policies, they may not always lengthen forest rotation periods. Therefore, if and when the government implements these mechanisms or policies, it should consider the factors affecting the length of forest rotation period. Finally, to respond to international interest in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the government should design separate carbon programs and trading mechanisms for different types of private landowners. This would strengthen incentives for participating in the afforestation program.

     

Incorporating the transport sector into carbon emission trading scheme: an overview and outlook

The transport sector is a major consumer of fossil fuels and, consequently, one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutant emissions. In recent years, global transport’s emissions have experienced a remarkable increase and will become a crucial cause of global warming in the next few decades. The public has become well aware of the issues regarding carbon emissions in this sector, and reducing greenhouse gases has also become a regulatory agenda of governments around the globe. Emissions trading schemes are considered one of the most cost-efficient ways of controlling greenhouse gas emissions and have been implemented by many countries around the world. While several countries have already incorporated the transport sector into their emissions trading schemes, China is in the process of incorporating a part of the transport sector into its emission trading scheme pilots. Introducing a market mechanism to reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector is still at a nascent stage and much is still to be explored. This paper explores the current development and challenges of applying carbon trading mechanisms in the transport sector around the world. Then, the paper analyzes the policies and current developments of incorporating the transport sector in China’s carbon trading pilots. Several suggestions are then provided in regard to options on transport sector entities coverage, initial allowance allocation models, integration of carbon trading policies with existing policies, collection of transportation statistics and rolling out a nationwide carbon trading system.     

气候变化谈判的共识与分歧初析

国际社会在应对气候变化领域经过多年磋商和谈判取得了一些重要进展,系统总结和分析了气候变化谈判领域已取得的共识,包括气候变化谈判的科学基础、人类社会对气候变化的重要性认识、策略转变、综合措施、不同经济发展阶段国家应对气候变化的角色认同等方面,综合比较和分析了国际气候谈判领域不同利益集团针对焦点问题存在的差异性认识,包括各国应对气候变化问题的基本思路、派别性立场、温室气体减排目标以及减排活动的范围等内容。     

Energy sector policies in Botswana and their implications for global climate change

Like most African countries, Botswana contributes almost insignificantly to global greenhouse emissions (GHGs). In this context, some have argued that energy policy and legislative measures to regulate emissions in Botswana should not be accorded high priority. This is a misguided view when one considers that each country, no matter how under-industrialized, contributes to the overall global emission problem. Moreover, the least developed countries will have to industrialize in order to meet the increasing economic and social needs of their growing populations. For rapidly growing economies like Botswana, whose annual energy demand is projected to increase by about 4% for the next ten years, the importance of compiling accurate inventories of sources and sinks of GHGs and formulating environmentally-friendly policies can hardly be over- emphasized. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the ideal basis for the country-by-country investigations and management of global climatic change; specifically its nature, properties, directionality, characteristics and probable consequences. Botswana was a founding signatory of UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the Convention in 1994. The country is also involved in regional cooperation efforts, within the Southern African Development Community, to enforce regulatory mechanisms to minimize GHG emissions from the energy sector. There exist certain energy-related institutions, policies, and regulations in the country which could mitigate the impact of GHG emissions on global warming. This paper, based on government and other relevant documentation, critically analyses Botswana's energy sector policies in as far as they affect climate change. It is clear that much still needs to be done about energy policies in terms of proper formulation, monitoring, co-ordination, energy pricing and the exploration of energy alternatives to mitigate potentially negative impacts on climate change.     

Optimal pricing of the Taiwan carbon trading market based on a demand–supply model

This study establishes theoretical models of supply and demand for carbon trading and proposes conditions for optimal trading prices and periods. Taiwan’s carbon market is used to verify the validity of the models. Simulations and empirical analysis position firms that emit greenhouse gases as the market buyers, and landowners that convert agricultural lands into plantation forests as the market sellers. The study compares four trading scenarios to determine optimal trading prices and time periods. There were four key conclusions. First, the higher the buyer’s cost to reduce carbon emissions, the higher the demand price is in the carbon trading market. The longer the trading period, the higher the carbon offsets, and the higher the demand price is for emissions trading. Second, the higher the emission trading price, the longer the optimal forest rotation period is for landowners. If emission costs do not exist at the time of logging, landowners are encouraged to log early, reducing the length of rotation periods. Furthermore, as the extension period in the trading scenarios increases, landowners’ costs increase, raising the market equilibrium price. Third, when landowners participate in forest carbon trading mechanisms or carbon subsidy policies, they may not always lengthen forest rotation periods. Therefore, if and when the government implements these mechanisms or policies, it should consider the factors affecting the length of forest rotation period. Finally, to respond to international interest in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the government should design separate carbon programs and trading mechanisms for different types of private landowners. This would strengthen incentives for participating in the afforestation program.     

Linking reforestation policies with land use change in northern Vietnam: Why local factors matter

In many countries worldwide, similar state policies on land management have been implemented as a response to deforestation in mountainous areas. So far, few studies have examined to which extent these policies have actually contributed to reforestation. This is the focus of our analysis, based on a case study in Vietnam. Because land access and land use were traditionally governed by common rules, we examine land use changes from an institutional perspective. We use the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, coupled with an historical perspective and the analysis of actors’ perception and dominant narratives on land management and forests. Results show that national policies significantly interfered with local factors, leading to a complex course of decision-making and action. Substantial reforestation in the area was not a response by farmers to policy incentives but rather the unexpected outcome of the disruption of local institutions by these policies. We argue that, because national interventions have relied on false or exaggerated narratives and beliefs, their implementation is in conflict with the local reality in upland areas, leading to unpredictable and locally dependent outcomes. We defend hence the need for local level studies and also recommend considering local institutions for land use change analysis in contexts where land use systems are characterised by a high degree of human interaction.     

Private agri-food governance and greenhouse gas abatement: Constructing a corporate carbon economy

Private sector actors are playing an increasingly significant role in the definition and governance of ‘sustainable’ agri-food practices. Yet, to date little attention has been paid by social scientists to how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are addressed as part of private agri-food governance arrangements. This paper examines how private actors within agri-food supply chains respond to emerging pressure for measures to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture. Drawing upon the Anglo-Foucauldian governmentality literature, we introduce the notion of the corporate carbon economy to conceptualise the practical techniques that enable private agri-food actors to make GHG emissions thinkable and governable in the context of existing market, regulatory, and supply chain pressures. Using a case study of the Australian dairy industry, we argue that private agri-food actors utilise a range of techniques that enable them to respond to existing government environmental regulations, balance current market pressures with future supply chain requirements, and demonstrate improved eco-efficiency along food supply chains. These techniques – which include environmental self-assessment instruments, tools for measuring GHG emissions, and sustainability reporting – have little direct relevance to the ‘international climate regime’ of carbon trading, and carbon markets more broadly, yet individually and in combination they are crucial in enacting an alternative regime of GHG governance. In concluding, we contend that the growing use of sustainability metrics by international food companies is likely to have the most powerful implications for GHG governance in the agri-food sector, with potentially far-reaching consequences for how future action on climate change is rendered thinkable and practicable.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Correlation between land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions in urban areas

Urban areas are the main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous studies have identified the effectiveness of better urban design on mitigating climate change and land-use patterns in cities as important factors in reducing GHG by local governments. However, studies documenting the link between land-use and GHG emissions are scant. Therefore, this study explores the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments in urban areas and investigates their correlations. The study area, Xinzhuang, is a satellite city of Taipei that has rapidly urbanized in the past few decades. Twenty-one potential variables were selected to determine the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments by binomial logistic regression based on the investigation data of national land use in 1996 and 2007. The correlation of land-use change and GHG increments was examined by Spearman rank-order analysis. Results of logistic regression analysis identified that population and its increasing density rate are main driving forces on both land-use change and GHG increments. The Spearman rank correlation matrix indicates that fluctuating urbanization level is significantly correlated with the increase of total GHG emissions, the emissions of residence, commerce, and transportation sectors in neighborhoods; and the emissions of residence and transportation sectors seem closely connected to current urbanization level. The findings suggest that relationships among land-use, urbanization, and GHG emissions in urban areas vary greatly according to residence and transportation characteristics. Land-based mitigation may provide the most viable mechanism for reducing GHG emissions through residence and transportation sectors.     

The role of economic sectoral structure as a policy mechanism towards more resilient peripheral regions: the case of South Africa

The role of economic sectoral structure in regional growth and development is widely acknowledged. However, there has been scarce reflection on its role as a policy instrument, particularly for peripheral regions. In reaction, this paper investigates the role of economic sectoral structure as a policy instrument towards more resilient peripheral regions. Through a multiple country policy analysis, the paper determines to what degree economic sectoral structure is reflected in regional development policies of 18 countries with predominantly rural characteristics and lagging regions. Moreover, the role of economic sectoral structure towards more resilient regions is quantified and measured for a specific peripheral region case in South Africa as developing country exhibiting poor economic resilience. The paper highlights related variety as a key ingredient for a region to reach a state of dynamic stability between adaptation and adaptability towards enhanced long-term resilience capacity of the peripheral region. The research concludes that policy focus should support the maintenance of the sectors and industries of comparative advantage on the regional scale, but strongly focus on sectoral comparative advantage within the national scale (if present) to establish a more robust region. This will establish and strengthen the identified peripheral growth centres as centres of national competitiveness and specialisation. Primary policy actions as emanated from the literature and the multiple country policy analysis will promote more efficient sectoral composition as key towards more resilient peripheral regions. It is acknowledged that these policy actions must be informed by a detailed regional economic analysis for different peripheral regions to determine inherent and latent economic potential and link with interdependent industries. This paper will highlight that regional policy should become more explicit by exploiting the role of economic and natural resources as growth engines for the peripheral regional economy in a more effective way through a multi-centred territorial structure.

     

煤矿区碳排放的确认和低碳绿色发展途径研究

开展煤矿区碳排放的系统评价和减排路径的综合分析,是落实我国碳达峰与碳中和愿景的具体行动。针对煤矿区碳排放源边界不清、核算模型缺乏及碳中和背景下发展方向等问题开展分析。通过文献查阅、资料收集等方法,厘清煤矿区碳排放源边界,并建立碳排放量核算模型,明确煤矿区低碳绿色发展方向。结果表明:煤矿区碳排放(CH₄和CO₂)来源可划分为自然排放和人为排放两大类,并细分为5种类型,针对不同碳排放源提出相应的数学模型;同时煤矿区要加大节能和低碳技术的投入,提高综合资源的利用程度和瓦斯的监测力度,加强绿色矿山修复和建设,积极参与碳市场和碳排放权交易及培育适应市场的管理模式等一系列措施,逐步实现低碳、绿色产业体系;此外,煤矿相关单位应高瞻远瞩,深入分析并发挥政府的低碳环保政策的作用,与相关高校加强合作,在我国碳减排目标下,大力推动煤制氢技术的发展,突破CO₂-ECBM和CCUS关键技术中的运输、封存选址、安全稳定性评价、成本降低等瓶颈问题,以期在双碳背景下碳减排过程中实现经济、环保双重效益。      

Measuring global energy-related sulfur oxides emissions embodied in trade: a multi-regional and multi-sectoral analysis

Sulfur oxides (SO_X) emissions embodied in trade (SEET) may play an important role in affecting national responsibilities toward pollutant emission reduction within the context of global greenhouse gas emission policy. This paper analyzes the change of the SEET associated with energy consumption from the perspective of a country and a sector between 1995 and 2011, exploring the evolution characteristic of the sources and flows of the SEET for 39 countries, as well as measuring the production-based and consumption-based global SO_X emissions’ inventory and investigating the impact of international trade on the allocation of national pollutant emissions’ reduction obligations. One important finding is that the volume of SO_X emissions embodied in global trade increased dramatically from 1995 to 2011, and the global SO_X emissions stemming from anthropogenic energy consumption are mostly from China and the USA. Another important finding is that, referring to specific sectors, whether seen from the total SEET or from the sources of SEET or from the total SO_X emissions occurring from economic consumption and production, energy sectors, like electricity, gas, and water supply and coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel, are the main contributors to the increase in the global SO_X emissions. Notably, however, our results show that the sector of agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing should be allocated more SO_X emission reduction responsibilities under a consumption-based emissions’ accounting inventory.

     

发达国家地质大数据管理现状分析与启示：以美、英、澳、加为例

科学数据是国家重要战略资源,数据共享是这种资源有效开发利用的手段之一,也是当今科学研究范式向数据密集型转变的重要基础。现代信息技术与勘查方法的深度融合,使得地质勘查和地学研究领域被急速推向大数据时代,亟需从宏观层面上进行科学管理。欧美一些国家通过颁布政策方针及铺设数据基础设施等方式,推动着本国地质大数据管理的有效实施。文章对美、英、澳、加四国地质调查局的数据管理工作方面做了调查,从数据管理范围、数据政策、战略计划、重要数据库及主要数据工具等方面现状进行了介绍与分析,并对中国地质调查行业数据管理工作提出了一些建议：（1）数据管理政策应采用自顶向下设计,自底向上实施;（2）数据开放共享、融合交流是世界地调机构的发展趋势;（3）大力推进地质云建设,三位一体实现大数据治理;（4）促进数据共享基础设施建设,通过参与国际治理争取拿到更多的话语权。     

青藏高原南部及邻区深部碳释放规模与成因

不同构造背景下的深部碳释放通量与机制研究对于深刻理解长时间尺度的气候变化具有重要意义,以往的相关研究多集中在洋中脊、大洋俯冲带和大陆裂谷等地质单元,缺少对大陆碰撞带深部碳释放规模与机理的关注,从而制约了对大陆碰撞带深部碳循环过程及其气候环境效应的进一步认识。青藏高原起源于印度和欧亚大陆的碰撞,是研究大陆碰撞带深部碳循环的理想地区。为此,在近年来青藏高原温室气体释放野外观测与研究的基础上,本文估算了高原南部及邻区火山-地热区的CO₂释放规模并探讨了其释放模式。气体He-C同位素地球化学与温泉水热活动特征等显示,青藏高原南部及邻区的深部碳释放主要受深部岩浆房、断裂和浅部水热系统等因素的控制。依据深部流体源区和上升运移控制因素的差异,可以将青藏高原南部及邻区的深部碳释放划分为三大类：(1)以壳内水热系统脱碳为主的藏南地区;(2)深大断裂控制的以水热系统脱碳为主的川西地区;(3)深部岩浆房和浅部水热系统共同控制的滇西南地区。青藏高原南部土壤微渗漏CO₂释放通量介于18.7～52.3Mt/yr之间,温泉溶解无机碳释放通量约为0.13Mt/yr;高原邻区...     

Thermo-economic Investigation of an Enhanced Geothermal System Organic Rankine Cycle and Combined Heating and Power System

As a potentially viable renewable energy, Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGSs) extract heat from hot dry rock (HDR) reservoirs to produce electricity and heat, which promotes the progress towards carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. The main challenge for EGSs is to reduce the investment cost. In the present study, thermo-economic investigations of EGS projects are conducted. The effects of geofluid mass flow rate, wellhead temperature and loss rate on the thermo-economic performance of the EGS organic Rankine cycle (ORC) are studied. A performance comparison between EGS-ORC and the EGS combined heating and power system (CHP) is presented. Considering the CO2 emission reduction benefits, the influence of carbon emission trading price on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is also presented. It is indicated that the geofluid mass flow rate is a critical parameter in dictating the success of a project. Under the assumed typical working conditions, the LCOE of EGS-ORC and EGS-CHP systems are 24.72 and 16.1 cents/kWh, respectively. Compared with the EGS-ORC system, the LCOE of the EGS-CHP system is reduced by 35%. EGS-CHP systems have the potential to be economically viable in the future. With carbon emission trading prices of 12.76 USD/ton, the LCOE can be reduced by approximately 8.5%.     

Multimodal Transport Operations in international cargo movement: Implications for transport policies and development in tropical Africa

The system of Multimodal Transport Operations (MTO) is aimed at facilitating international movement of traffic on a door-to-door basis. Such a system involves the integration of the marine, port and inland transport sectors of trading partners. The existing transportation systems in tropical Africa do not meet the standards required for such operations. This paper examines the deficiencies in the transport systems and analyses the implications of introducing the MTO system on transport policies, investment, insurance matters and port consolidation in tropical Africa.     

The TRANSMED Atlas： geological-geophysical fabric of the Mediterranean region——Final report of the project

Geological research on the Mediterranean region is presently characterized by the transition from disciplinary to multidisciplinary research, as well as from national to international investigations. In order to synthesize and integrate the vast disciplinary and national datasets which are available, it is necessary to implement maximum interaction among geoscientists of different backgrounds. The creation of project-oriented task forces in universities and other research institutions, as well as the development of large international cooperation programs, is instrumental in pursuing such a multidisciplinary and supranational approach. The TRANSMED Atlas, an official publication of the 32nd International Geological Congress (Florence 2004), is the result of an international scientific cooperation program which brought together for over two years sixtythree structural geologists, geophysicists, marine geologists, petrologists, sedimentologists, stratigraphers, paleogeographers, and petroleum geologists coming from eighteen countries, and working for the petroleum industry, academia, and other institutions, both public and private. The TRANSMED Atlas provides an updated, synthetic, and coherent portrayal of the overall geological-geophysical structure of the Mediterranean domain and the surrounding areas. The initial stimulus for the Atlas came from the realization of the extremely heterogeneous nature of the existing geological-geophysical data about such domain. These data have been gathered by universities, oil companies, geological surveys and other institutions in several countries, often using different procedures and standards. In addition, much of these data are written in languages and published in outlets that are not readily accessible to the general international reader. By synthesizing and integrating a wealth of preexisting and new data derived from surficial geology, seismic sections at various scales, and mantle tomographies, the TRANSMED Atlas provides for the first time a coherent geological overview of the Mediterranean region and represents an ideal springboard for future studies.     

Can Chinese residential low-carbon consumption behavior intention be better explained? The role of cultural values

Natural Hazards - For better implementation of emission reduction policies in China, this paper focuses on households, one of the major sources of carbon emission, and look into the forming...