考虑LS+AR模型基础数据量的极移预报研究

针对目前极移最小二乘(Least Square, LS)+自回归(AutoRegressive, AR)预报模型的单一数据选取方案, 提出分别考虑LS模型数据量和AR残差数据量的组合数据模式, 并对极移预报时单一数据和组合数据预报结果精度进行分析, 探讨模型输入数据量对极移预报精度的影响. 结果表明, 模型输入数据量的变化对极移预报结果影响较大. 采用组合数据预报的方式相比较于单一数据量预报方式精度更高, 特别是针对30--360 d跨度内的中长期预报, 组合数据量的极移预报精度可比单一数据量预报精度有较大改善. 结论证明组合数据在极移预报时具有一定的优势, 可为以后极移预报数据量选取提供一定的借鉴参考意义.     

SLR不同地心运动确定方法研究及其特征分析

处理了Lageos-1, Lageos-2, Etalon-1和Etalon-2共4颗卫星在1993―2017年的全球卫星激光测距(satellite laser raging, SLR)观测数据,并对国际激光测距服务(International Laser Ranging Service, ILRS)各分析中心(analysis centers, ACs)的周解进行了技术内综合,分别通过几何法(参考SLRF2008和SLRF2014)和直接法(针对Lageos-1和Lageos-2)确定了SLR地心运动序列;利用傅里叶变换和最小二乘法分析了地心运动的长期变化、周年变化和半年变化,并与CSR (the center for space research)提供的动力学法结果进行了比较和分析。结果表明:地心运动的长期项比周期项小1个量级;与SLRF2008几何法相比,用SLRF2014几何法得到的地心运动长期项明显较小,特别是在Z方向;使用直接法分别针对Lageos-1和Lageos-2卫星激光测距数据解算的地心运动半年项有较好的一致性,但周年项相位相差较大,且在Z方向与几何法及CSR提供...     

Meridional Motion and Reynolds Stress from Debrecen Photoheliographic Data

The Debrecen Photoheliographic Data catalogue is a continuation of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results providing daily positions of sunspots and sunspot groups. We analyse the data for sunspot groups focussing on meridional motions and transfer of angular momentum towards the solar equator. Velocities are calculated with a daily shift method including an automatic iterative process of removing the outliers. Apart from the standard differential rotation profile, we find meridional motion directed towards the zone of solar activity. The difference in measured meridional flow in comparison to Doppler measurements and some other tracer measurements is interpreted as a consequence of different flow patterns inside and outside of active regions. We also find a statistically significant dependence of meridional motion on rotation velocity residuals confirming the transfer of angular momentum towards the equator. Analysis of horizontal Reynolds stress reveals that the transfer of angular momentum is stronger with increasing latitude up to about \(40^{\circ}\), where there is a possible maximum in absolute value.     

Evaluating (and Improving) Estimates of the Solar Radial Magnetic Field Component from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

Although for many solar physics problems the desirable or meaningful boundary is the radial component of the magnetic field \(B_{\mathrm {r}}\), the most readily available measurement is the component of the magnetic field along the line of sight to the observer, \(B_{\mathrm {los}}\). As this component is only equal to the radial component where the viewing angle is exactly zero, some approximation is required to estimate \(B_{\mathrm {r}}\) at all other observed locations. In this study, a common approximation known as the “\(\mu\)-correction”, which assumes all photospheric field to be radial, is compared to a method that invokes computing a potential field that matches the observed \(B_{\mathrm {los}}\), from which the potential field radial component, \(B_{\mathrm {r}}^{\mathrm {pot}}\) is recovered. We demonstrate that in regions that are truly dominated by a radially oriented field at the resolution of the data employed, the \(\mu\)-correction performs acceptably if not better than the potential-field approach. However, it is also shown that for any solar structure that includes horizontal fields, i.e. active regions, the potential-field method better recovers both the strength of the radial field and the location of magnetic neutral line.     

加权最小二乘法与AR组合模型在极移预测中的应用研究

分析了极移预测的重要性,介绍了目前极移预测的主要方法.根据目前常用预测模型中周年项和钱德勒项的时变性质,在极移预测方法上进行了一种新的尝试,即利用加权最小二乘法与AR组合模型对极移进行预测.为进一步优选模型中的加权函数,设计了3种选权方案,并通过对比,给出了极移X、Y序列各自合适的选权方案.通过实验最终验证了这种新方法对极移预测的精度提高有一定作用,可作为极移预测的一种参考方法;但该方法作为极移预测的一种新的尝试,在选权方案优选时,其物理激发上的理论依据仍需进一步探讨.     

同波束VLBI差分时延率研究

通过分析SELENE的两颗小卫星Rstar和Vstar的同波束VLBI数据,发现两卫星间差分时延率中由中性大气和电离层引起的长周期变化已被去除,且在小角距时,短周期变化也能绝大部分被去除。但角距离越大,去除部分越小。通过将2008年一年中8个台站组成的所有基线的相关相位拟合残差数据分别平滑积分30 s与60 s后,再通过5点直线拟合求得时延率,得出单卫星时延率随机误差分别约为0.32 ps/s RMS与0.20 ps/s RMS,而差分时延率随机误差分别为0.19 ps/s~0.32 ps/s RMS与0.09 ps/s~0.17 ps/s RMS。单卫星的时延率随机误差在秋季最大,春季最小,而差分时延率的随机误差在全年基本稳定。     

Comparison of Star Formation Rate Estimates from Hα, FIR and Radio Data

We use three indicators of massive star formation, H_α, FIR and non-thermal radio luminosities, to compare estimates of the star formation rate (SFR) for a sample of 34 spiral galaxies. To adjust the SFR values obtained from these indicators, we considered the slope, α, and/or the upper mass limit M _up of the initial mass function (IMF) as free parameters. The best agreement between the indicators is found for M _up≈ 60-100 M⊙ and α ≈–3.1 at the high-mass end of the IMF (M>10 M⊙.Parallelwith the SFR we also estimated the FIR excess X _FIR, defined as the fraction of the observed FIR not directly related to young massive stars. X _FIR is found to be well correlated with types of spiral galaxies and their colours (B-V): the redder a galaxy, the higher its FIR excess. We conclude that for any parameters of the IMF the observed FIR flux of early-type spiral galaxies needs an additional source of energy apart from massive star radiation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

经验模式分解在极移超短期预报中的应用

经验模式分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,简称EMD)是一种数据驱动的自适应非线性时变信号分解方法,可以把数据分解成具有物理意义的模式函数分量.采用EMD对极移序列进行分解,去除序列中的高频信号,然后基于最小二乘外推(Least Squares Extrapolation,简称LSE)和广义回归神经网络(General Regression Neural Network,简称GRNN)的组合模型对去除高频信号的极移序列进行1～10d的超短期预报.实验结果表明:将该模型应用到极移超短期预报具有可行性,预报精度有明显改善.     

Excitation of Annual Polar Motion by the Pacific,Atlantic and Indian Oceans

The global oceans play important roles in exciting the annual polar motion besides the atmosphere. However,it is still unclear about how large the regional oceans contribute to the annual polar motion. We investigate systemically the contributions of the Pacific,Atlantic and Indian Oceans to the excitation of the annual polar motion,based on the output data of ocean current velocity field and ocean bottom pressure field from "Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO)" ocean circulation model over the period 1993-2005. The result shows that due to its particular location and shape,the Atlantic Ocean makes a less significant contribution to the x-component of the annual polar motion excitation than the Pacific and Indian Oceans,while all these three oceans contribute to the y-component of the annual polar motion excitation to some extent.     

Excitation of Annual Polar Motion by the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans

The global oceans play important roles in exciting the annual polar motion besides the atmosphere. However, it is still unclear about how large the regional oceans contribute to the annual polar motion. We investigate systemically the contributions of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans to the excitation of the annual polar motion, based on the output data of ocean current velocity field and ocean bottom pressure field from ＂Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean （ECCO）＂ ocean circulation model over the period 1993-2005. The result shows that due to its particular location and shape, the Atlantic Ocean makes a less significant contribution to the x-component of the annual polar motion excitation than the Pacific and Indian Oceans, while all these three oceans contribute to the y-component of the annual polar motion excitation to some extent.     

中国古历经朔数据的恢复及应用

中国元代的《授时历议》保存了44部古历的推朔参数及比验资料．借助古代朔望计算方法：1）恢复了诸历行用初年的天正经朔数值；2）修正了史载的错误数据．3）根据Meeus方法计算出经朔的理论值，并由此确定古历经朔的推步精度；4）尝试应用这些数据考察地球自转长期变化，得出日长变化为1．8ms／cy．     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

Polar cap magnetic activity as a signature of substorm development

On the basis of the 5.46 min IMF data and the 3-min data on magnetic field at polar cap station Alert, various characteristics of the interplanetary magnetic field and polar cap magnetic activity are examined for the purpose of separating the substorm precursors. It is shown that the most suitable characteristics toward this aim are the following: 1.σ(B_Z)-index, defined as the 15-min sum of values of the southward (B_ZS) components of the IMF with an account of the negative gradient of the IMF vertical (B_Z) component; and 2.PC(B_Z)-index, defined as the 15-min sum of values of the polar cap magnetic disturbances, concerned with southward component B_ZS, with an account of variability of these disturbances. Every intense peak in the substorm activity is preceded by a corresponding increase in σ(B_Z) and PC(B_Z) indices. Thus, the conclusion is made that moderate and large substorms have a growth phase and as a result such substorms may be forecasted using the above indices.     

Helicity as a Component of Filament Formation

In this paper we seek the origin of the axial component of the magnetic field in filaments by adapting theory to observations. A previous paper (Mackay, Gaizauskas, and van Ballegooijen, 2000) showed that surface flows acting on potential magnetic fields for 27 days – the maximum time between the emergence of magnetic flux and the formation of large filaments between the resulting activity complexes – cannot explain the chirality or inverse polarity nature of the observed filaments. We show that the inclusion of initial helicity, for which there is observational evidence, in the flux transport model results in sufficiently strong dextral fields of inverse polarity to account for the existence and length of an observed filament within the allotted time. The simulations even produce a large length of dextral chirality when just small amounts of helicity are included in the initial configuration. The modeling suggests that the axial field component in filaments can result from a combination of surface (flux transport) and sub-surface (helicity) effects acting together. Here surface effects convert the large-scale helicity emerging in active regions into a smaller-scale magnetic-field component parallel to the polarity inversion line so as to form a magnetic configuration suitable for a filament.     

Morphology and Size–Frequency Distribution of Kilometer-Scale Impact Craters on Callisto and Ganymede Derived from Galileo Data

Using high-resolution Galileo images, we counted the number of craters (larger than 1 km) on two of Jupiter's satellites—Callisto (outside and inside the Asgard impact basin) and Ganymede (in the dark cratered Galileo region)—and classified these craters morphologically. Based on the degree of preservation of crater rims, three morphological classes, A, B, and C (from the most preserved to the most degraded), have been identified. The A : B : C ratios, equal, respectively, to 1 : 3 : 5, 1 : 3 : 7, and 1 : 2.5 : 6.5 for fragments of the territory outside and inside the Asgard basin and within Galileo Regio, indicate that these crater populations reached a considerably high degree of maturity. The degradation of kilometer-scale craters on Callisto proceeds by the narrowing of their rims and their disintegration into chains of knobs, probably due to the sublimation of ice that composes the rim material. Comparing the density of craters of different classes in the regions inside and outside Asgard shows that class A craters on the territories examined were formed after the event that formed this impact basin. Kilometer-scale craters on Ganymede degrade through the expansion and smoothing of their rims and the dissection of them by radial furrows. This implies the involvement in the crater destruction of a downslope movement triggered by the seismic activity that accompanied the formation of tectonic grooves. It is possible that ice sublimation also took part in the destruction of craters on Ganymede, but its effect was less prominent than the effect of downslope movements.     

Polar motion estimates from linear combinations of independent series

This paper describes methods for combining independent observations of polar motion into a single time series, and applies these methods to satellite laser ranging, Doppler, and astrometric polar motion data taken over the period 1981--1983. The polar motion data are treated as complex valued time series, yielding one estimate of the noise level for each series, rather than a separate estimate for X and Y components. Estimates of the noise level which take advantage of the existence of simultaneous observations are preferred. Linear combination of the data may be performed in both the time and the frequency domain, and examples of each are present. The results of analyzing three years of observations show little difference between the Allan and conventional variance. Present day Doppler determinations do not show marked improvement compared to classical astrometric results. Thus, the astrometric observations are still useful.     

Areas of Polar Coronal Holes from 1996 Through 2010

Polar coronal holes (PCHs) trace the magnetic variability of the Sun throughout the solar cycle. Their size and evolution have been studied as proxies for the global magnetic field. We present measurements of the PCH areas from 1996 through 2010, derived from an updated perimeter-tracing method and two synoptic-map methods. The perimeter-tracing method detects PCH boundaries along the solar limb, using full-disk images from the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT). One synoptic-map method uses the line-of-sight magnetic field from the SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to determine the unipolarity boundaries near the poles. The other method applies thresholding techniques to synoptic maps created from EUV image data from EIT. The results from all three methods suggest that the solar maxima and minima of the two hemispheres are out of phase. The maximum PCH area, averaged over the methods in each hemisphere, is approximately 6 % during both solar minima spanned by the data (between Solar Cycles 22/23 and 23/24). The northern PCH area began a declining trend in 2010, suggesting a downturn toward the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 in that hemisphere, while the southern hole remained large throughout 2010.     

Principal Components and Independent Component Analysis of Solar and Space Data

Principal components analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA) are used to identify global patterns in solar and space data. PCA seeks orthogonal modes of the two-point correlation matrix constructed from a data set. It permits the identification of structures that remain coherent and correlated or that recur throughout a time series. ICA seeks for maximally independent modes and takes into account all order correlations of the data. We apply PCA to the interplanetary magnetic field polarity near 1 AU and to the 3.25R _⊙ source-surface fields in the solar corona. The rotations of the two-sector structures of these systems vary together to high accuracy during the active interval of solar cycle 23. We then use PCA and ICA to hunt for preferred longitudes in northern hemisphere Carrington maps of magnetic fields.