Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model

We summarize the recent progress in regional climate modeling in South America with the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3-E), with emphasis on soil moisture processes. A series of climatological integrations using a continental scale domain nested in reanalysis data were carried out for the initial and mature stages of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) of 1993–92 and were analyzed on seasonal and monthly timescales. The role of including a spatially varying soil depth, which extends to 8 m in tropical forest, was evaluated against the standard constant soil depth of the model of about 2 m, through two five member ensemble simulations. The influence of the soil depth was relatively weak, with both beneficial and detrimental effects on the simulation of the seasonal mean rainfall. Secondly, two ensembles that differ in their initial state of soil moisture were prepared to study the influence of anomalously dry and wet soil moisture initial conditions on the intraseasonal development of the SAMS. In these simulations the austral winter soil moisture initial condition has a strong influence on wet season rainfall over feed back upon the monsoon, not only over the Amazon region but in subtropical South America as well. Finally, we calculated the soil moisture–precipitation coupling strength through comparing a ten member ensemble forced by the same space–time series of soil moisture fields with an ensemble with interactive soil moisture. Coupling strength is defined as the degree to which the prescribed boundary conditions affect some atmospheric quantity in a climate model, in this context a quantification of the fraction of atmospheric variability that can be ascribed to soil moisture anomalies. La Plata Basin appears as a region where the precipitation is partly controlled by soil moisture, especially in November and January. The continental convective monsoon regions and subtropical South America appears as a region with relatively high coupling strength during the mature phase of monsoon development.     

Synoptic and mesoscale controls on the isotopic composition of precipitation in the western United States

We present a new event-scale catalog of stable isotopic measurements from 5?years of storm events at 4 sites in southern California, which is used to understand the storm to storm controls on the isotopic composition of precipitation and validate the event-scale performance of an isotope-enabled GCM simulation (IsoGSM) (Yoshimura et?al. 2008). These analyses are motivated to improve the interpretation of proxy records from this region and provide guidance in testing the skill of GCMs in reproducing the hydrological variability in the western US. We find that approximately 40% of event-scale isotopic variability arises from the percentage of precipitation that is convective and the near surface relative humidity in the days prior to the storms landfall. The additional isotopic variability arises from the fact that storms arriving from different source regions advect moisture of distinct isotopic compositions. We show using both field correlation and Lagrangian trajectory analysis that the advection of subtropical and tropical moisture is important in producing the most isotopically enriched precipitation. The isotopic catalog is then used along with satellite-derived δD retrievals of atmospheric moisture to benchmark the performance of the IsoGSM model for the western US. The model is able to successfully replicate the observed isotopic variability suggesting that it is closely reproducing the moisture transport and storm track dynamics that drive the large storm-to-storm isotopic range. Notably, we find that an increase in moisture flux from the central tropical Pacific leads to a convergence of isotopically enriched water vapor in the subtropics and consequently an increase in δ¹⁸O of precipitation at sites along the entire west coast. Changes in poleward moisture flux from the central Tropical Pacific have important implications for both the global hydrological cycle and regional precipitation amounts and we suggest such changes can be captured through instrumental and proxy-reconstruction of the spatiotemporal isotopic patterns in the precipitation along the west coast of the US.     

Climate controls on rainfall isotopes and their effects on cave drip water and speleothem growth: the case of Molinos cave (Teruel,NE Spain)

The interpretation of stable isotopes in speleothems in terms of past temperature variability or precipitation rates requires a comprehensive understanding of the climatic factors and processes that influence the δ¹⁸O signal in the way through the atmosphere to the cave, where carbonate precipitates acquiring its final isotopic composition. This study presents for the first time in the Iberia Peninsula an integrated analysis of the isotopic composition of rainfall (δ¹⁸O_p) during 2010–2012 years and, through a detailed monitoring survey, the transference of the primary isotopic signal throughout the soil and epikarst into the Molinos cave (Teruel, NE Spain). Both air temperature and amount of precipitation have an important effect on δ¹⁸O_p values, clearly imprinting a seasonal variability modulated by an amount effect when rainfall events are more frequent or intense. Air mass history and atmospheric circulation influences are considered through the study of weather types, synoptic-scale climate patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation indexes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Western Mediterranean Oscillation) revealing a dominant source effect on δ¹⁸O_p values in this region where tropical North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean are the two moisture source regions. A delay of 2–3 months occurs between the dripwater oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O_d) respect to δ¹⁸O_p values as a consequence of large residence time in the epikarst. Limited calcite precipitates are found from winter to spring when δ¹⁸O_d values are less negative and dripwater rates are constant. This study suggests that NE Iberian δ¹⁸O_calcite proxy records are best interpreted as reflecting a combination of parameters, not just paleotemperature or paleorainfall and, if extending present-day situation towards the recent past, a biased signal towards winter values should be expected in Molinos speleothem records.     

Aridity and the Potential Physiological Response of C 3 Crops to Doubled Atmospheric Co 2 : A Simple Demonstration of the Sensitivity of the Canadian Prairies

Since cultivated annual C₃ field crops cover about50% of the land surface of the Canadian Prairie grassland eco-climatic zone, this vegetationinfluences the aridity of the climate during the growing season. The physiological response of these cropsto a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ may be a doubling of canopyresistance. If this physiological effect is not counteracted by interactive feedbacks, such as increasedleaf area, evapotranspiration rates could be reduced. To demonstrate the sensitivity of thearidity of the Prairie climate to this potential physiological effect, representative spring wheatgrowing-season soil moisture and Bowen ratio curves for a doubled canopy resistance(2 × CO₂) scenario were compared with a control (1 × CO₂) scenario.Lower evapotranspiration in the 2 × CO₂ scenario: (1) Increased root-zone soilmoisture levels, and (2) weakened the atmospheric component of the hydrologic cycle by raisingBowen ratios, which reduces the convective available energy, and reduces the regionalcontribution to the atmospheric water vapour over the Prairies. A weakened hydrologic cycleimplies less rainfall, and possibly, lower soil moisture levels. Thus, the net impact of a doublingof the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ on the aridity of the Canadian Prairies is uncertain.This simple sensitivity demonstration did not consider most of the potential feedback mechanisms,nor interactions of other processes. Nevertheless, the result illustrates that the physiologicaleffect should be explicitly included in climate change models for the Canadian Prairies.     

Intraseasonal and interannual zonal circulations over the Equatorial Indian Ocean

El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and given phases of the Madden?CJulian Oscillation (MJO) show similar regional signatures over the Equatorial Indian Ocean, consisting in an enhancement or reversing of the convective and dynamic zonal gradients between East Africa and the Maritime Continent of Indonesia. This study analyses how these two modes of variability add or cancel their effects at their respective timescales, through an investigation of the equatorial cellular circulations over the central Indian Ocean. Results show that (1) the wind shear between the lower and upper troposphere is related to marked regional rainfall anomalies and is embedded in larger-scale atmospheric configurations, involving the Southern Oscillation; (2) the intraseasonal (30?C60?days) and interannual (4?C5?years) timescales are the most energetic frequencies that modulate these circulations, confirming the implication of the MJO and ENSO; (3) extreme values of the Indian Ocean wind shear result from the combination of El Ni?o and the MJO phase enhancing atmospheric convection over Africa, or La Ni?a and the MJO phase associated with convective activity over the Maritime Continent. Consequences for regional rainfall anomalies over East Africa and Indonesia are then discussed.     

进入内陆的两个台风降水特征对比分析

2012年8月台风海葵和2014年7月台风麦德姆登陆进入安徽省后,均造成了区域性暴雨或大暴雨天气。利用常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和雨滴谱资料,对这两个直接影响安徽省的台风移动路径和暴雨形成机制进行了对比分析。结果表明:（1）海葵和麦德姆的移动路径、停留时间和强降水分布特征有明显不同。与海葵相比,麦德姆的移动速度快、降水持续时间短、累计降雨量和暴雨范围较小;但其短时强降水持续时间长、暴雨中心降水强度更大。（2）海葵和麦德姆降水过程中均有强的水汽输送和辐合,但水汽输送方向的差异使得海葵和麦德姆的强降水空间分布分别呈纬向型和经向型特征。同时水汽辐合持续时间决定了麦德姆的降水持续时间比海葵短,但其较深厚的强水汽辐合使得麦德姆的短时强降水持续时间长、暴雨中心降水强度大。（3）海葵是以稳定性降水为主的混合型降水,麦德姆则呈现出明显的对流性降水特征;两次台风降水过程中均是短时间的对流性降水对总降雨量贡献最大,且强降水区域均位于风垂直切变的顺风切左侧。（4）麦德姆降水过程比海葵具有更高的雨滴数浓度和更大的降水粒子直径。当雨强小于10 mm/h时,两次台风降水过程均以小雨滴为主且数浓度较大;雨强>10 mm/h时,雨滴粒径增大但数浓度明显降低。（5）两次台风降水过程的雷达反射率因子-雨强（Z-R）均有较好的指数关系且拟合曲线比较一致,但在不同降水类型即层云降水和对流性降水中,其Z-R关系的a、b值差异较明显。因此,针对不同降水类型,应采用分型Z-R关系来进行雷达降水定量估测。      

Eemian tropical and subtropical African moisture transport: an isotope modelling study

During the last interglacial insolation maximum (Eemian, MIS 5e) the tropical and subtropical African hydrological cycle was enhanced during boreal summer months. The climate anomalies are examined with a General Circulation Model (ECHAM4) that is equipped with a module for the direct simulation of ¹⁸O and deuterium (H ₂ ¹⁸ O and HDO, respectively) in all components of the hydrological cycle. A mechanism is proposed to explain the physical processes that lead to the modelled anomalies. Differential surface heating due to anomalies in orbital insolation forcing induce a zonal flow which results in enhanced moisture advection and precipitation. Increased cloud cover reduces incoming short wave radiation and induces a cooling between 10°N and 20°N. The isotopic composition of rainfall at these latitudes is therefore significantly altered. Increased amount of precipitation and stronger advection of moisture from the Atlantic result in isotopically more depleted rainfall in the Eemian East African subtropics compared to pre-industrial climate. The East–West gradient of the isotopic rainfall composition reverses in the Eemian simulation towards depleted values in the east, compared to more depleted western African rainfall in the pre-industrial simulation. The modelled re-distribution of δ¹⁸O and δD is the result of a change in the forcing of the zonal flow anomaly. We conclude that the orbitally induced forcing for African monsoon maxima extends further eastward over the continent and leaves a distinct isotopic signal that can be tested against proxy archives, such as lake sediment cores from the Ethiopian region.     

1998年夏季HUBEX/GAME期间热量和水汽收支(英)

By using the high-resolution GAME reanalysis data, the heat and moisture budgets during the period of HUBEX/GAME in the summer of 1998 are calculated for exploring the thermodynamic features of Meiyu over the Changjiang-Huaihe (CH) valley. During the CH Meiyu period, an intensive vertically-integrated heat source and moisture sink are predominant over the heavy rainfall area of the CH valley, accompanied by strong upward motion at 500 hPa. The heat and moisture budgets show that the main diabatic heating component is condensation latent heat released by rainfall. As residual terms, the evaporation and sensible heating are relatively small. Based on the vertical distribution of the heat source and moisture sink, the nature of the rainfall is mixed, in which the convective rainfall is dominant with a considerable percentage of continuous stratiform rainfall. There are similar time evolutions of the main physical parameters(〈Q1〉,〈Q2〉,and vertical motion ω at 500 hPa).The time variations of〈Q1〉and〈Q2〉are in phase with those of -ω500, and have their main peaks within the CH Meiyu period. This shows the influence of the heat source on the dynamic structure of the atmosphere. The wavelet analyses of those time series display similar multiple timescale characteristics. During the CH Meiyu period, both the synoptic scale(～6 days) and mesoscale (～2 days and ～12 hours) increase obviously and cause heavy rainfall as well as the appearances of the maxima of the main physical parameters. Among them, the mesoscale systems are the main factors.     

Impact of moisture flux convergence and soil moisture on precipitation: a case study for the southern United States with implications for the globe

Interactions between soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), atmospheric moisture fluxes and precipitation are complex. It is difficult to attribute the variations of one variable to another. In this study, we investigate the influence of atmospheric moisture fluxes and land surface soil moisture on local precipitation, with a focus on the southern United States (U.S.), a region with a strong humidity gradient and intense moisture fluxes. Experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that the variation of moisture flux convergence (MFC) is more important than that of soil moisture for precipitation variation over the southern U.S. Further analyses decompose the precipitation change into several contributing factors and show that MFC affects precipitation both directly through changing moisture inflow (wet areas) and indirectly by changing the precipitation efficiency (transitional zones). Soil moisture affects precipitation mainly by changing the precipitation efficiency, and secondly through direct surface ET contribution. The greatest soil moisture effects are over transitional zones. MFC is more important for the probability of heavier rainfall; soil moisture has much weaker impact on rainfall probability and its roles are similar for the probability of intermediate-to-heavy rainfall (>10 mm day^?1). Although MFC is more important than soil moisture for precipitation over most regions, the impact of soil moisture could be large over certain transitional regions. At the submonthly time scale, the African Sahel appears to be the only major region where soil moisture has a greater impact than MFC on precipitation. This study provides guidance to understanding and further investigation of the roles of local land surface processes and large-scale circulations on precipitation.     

A Large-Eddy Simulation Study of Water Vapour and Carbon Dioxide Isotopes in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

A large-eddy simulation model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is extended to simulate the transport and diffusion of C¹⁸OO, H₂¹⁸O and ¹³CO₂ in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The simulation results show that the ¹⁸O compositions of leaf water and the ABL CO₂ are moderately sensitive to wind speed. The variations in the ¹⁸O composition of water vapour are an order of magnitude greater than those in the ¹³C and ¹⁸O compositions of CO₂ both at turbulent eddy scales and across the capping inversion. In a fully-developed convective ABL, these isotopic compositions are well mixed as with other conserved atmospheric quantities. The Keeling intercepts determined with the simulated high-frequency turbulence time series do not give a reliable estimate of the ¹⁸O composition of the surface water vapour flux and may be a reasonable approximation to the ¹³C and ¹⁸O compositions of the surface CO₂ flux in the late afternoon only after a deep convective ABL has developed. We suggest that our isotopic large-eddy simulation (ISOLES) model should be a useful tool for testing and formulating research hypotheses on land–air isotopic exchanges.     

Short timescale air-sea coupling in the tropical deep convective regime

Summary The relationship between surface rainfall rate and sea-surface temperature (SST) over tropical cloudy areas is revisited, and associated air-sea interaction processes are investigated based on hourly grid simulation data over cloudy areas from a two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model. A cloud-weighted data analysis shows that surface evaporation flux decreases with increasing SST and is one order of magnitude smaller than the residual between moisture convergence and condensation, playing a negligible role in moisture budget. Moisture convergence determines the surface rainfall rate by determining vapor condensation and deposition rates. Ocean mixed-layer thermal budget shows that the atmospheric surface flux is a major process responsible for SST variation while thermal advection and thermal entrainment play a secondary role. The results indicate that atmospheric impacts on the ocean are important whereas oceanic impacts on the atmosphere are not, in the tropical air-sea system, on short timescales. Thus, the relationship between surface rainfall rate and SST over tropical cloudy areas is not physically important. Further estimates indicate that the surface evaporation flux and residual between moisture convergence and condensation could have the same order of magnitude in daily-mean moisture budget.     

Closing the Mackenzie basin water budget,water years 1994/95 to 1996/97

Abstract

A particularly elusive science objective for the Mackenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Study (MAGS) has been to close the atmospheric moisture budget and rationalize it against the surface water budget at annual or even monthly timescales. The task, while not difficult in principle, is complicated by two factors. First is the importance of basin snow‐cover, soil and water‐body storage in the surface water budget. Month‐to‐month changes in these components are frequently greater than the atmospheric flux terms, for example, during spring snowmelt. Furthermore, there is approximately a six‐week lag before local changes are evident in the discharge at the mouth of the basin. Second, the coarse resolution of all of the supporting data may add significant systematic errors. For example, the two radiosonde soundings per day available to the project are unlikely to account adequately for all the moisture generated locally through evapotranspiration during the summer convective season.

This analysis will directly address these two main issues by applying hydrologic and atmospheric computations to assess the storage question, and by using additional soundings at a single site to sample the diurnal signature in atmospheric moisture caused by evapotranspiration. Resulting modifications to the atmospheric moisture and surface water budgets then allow near closure of the MAGS monthly water budget within acceptable error limits.     

Microphysical Characteristics of Precipitation during Pre-monsoon,Monsoon, and Post-monsoon Periods over the South China Sea

Raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics over the South China Sea (SCS) are examined with onboard Parsivel disdrometer measurements collected during marine surveys from 2012 to 2016. The observed rainfall is divided into pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods based on the different large-scale circumstances. In addition to disdrometer data, sounding observation, FY-2E satellite, SPRINTARS (Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species), and NCEP reanalysis datasets are used to illustrate the dynamical and microphysical characteristics associated with the rainfall in different periods. Significant variations have been observed in respect of raindrops among the three periods. Intercomparison reveals that small drops (D < 1 mm) are prevalent during pre-monsoon precipitation, whereas medium drops (1?3 mm) are predominant in monsoon precipitation. Overall, the post-monsoon precipitation is characterized by the least concentration of raindrops among the three periods. But, several large raindrops could also occur due to severe convective precipitation events in this period. Classification of the precipitation into stratiform and convective regimes shows that the lg(N_w) value of convective rainfall is the largest (smallest) in the pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) period, whereas the D_m value is the smallest (largest) in the pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) period. An inversion relationship between the coefficient A and the exponential b of the Z?R relationships for precipitation during the three periods is found. Empirical relations between D_m and the radar reflectivity factors at Ku and Ka bands are also derived to improve the rainfall retrieval algorithms over the SCS. Furthermore, the possible causative mechanisms for the significant RSD variability in different periods are also discussed with respect to warm and cold rain processes, raindrop evaporation, convective activities, and other meteorological factors.     

中高纬度与热带大气的共同作用对江南4-6月低频降水的影响

基于中国国家气象观测站的逐日降水资料、NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)提供的逐日向外长波辐射资料和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR(National Center for Atmospheric Research)逐日全球再分析资料,采用非滤波法提取10-30 d低频降水及低频环流因子,分析了1979-2013年江南地区4-6月低频降水及其关联的大气环流特征,着重讨论了中高纬度与热带共同作用对低频降水的影响及可能机理。结果表明:(1)江南4-6月降水的第1模态呈现全区一致的变化趋势,其10-30 d低频降水方差贡献率在江南南部较大,部分区域可达20%。(2)降水的低频异常不仅与热带对流有关,还与中高纬度大气环流的变化显著相关。当东印度洋及印度尼西亚一带对流旺盛,中国上游欧洲至西伯利亚地区高纬度位势高度表现为显著的正异常,江南上空为负异常时,有利于江南低频降水。(3)中高纬度大气环流与热带对流共同作用影响江南4-6月低频降水:当热带对流旺盛区(抑制区)位于东印度洋及印度尼西亚海洋性大陆一带时,热带热源的非绝热加热引起显著的上升(下沉)运动,并激发经向罗斯贝波北传;同时高纬度欧洲至西伯利亚地区的位势高度负异常(正异常)向东向南传播,两者在江南上游叠加,低压(高压)底前部的西南风(东北风)有利于孟加拉湾对江南的水汽输送加强(减弱),对应江南地区整层水汽通量辐合(辐散),低频降水偏多(偏少)。     

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with mei-yu torrential rainfall over eastern China during June 2011

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with three heavy rainfall events that occurred over eastern China during the mei-yu season in June 2011 were analyzed using 2D cumulus ensemble model simulation data.Model domain mean rainfall showed three peaks in response to three prescribed ascending motion maxima,primarily through the mean moisture convergence during the torrential rainfall period.Prescribed ascending motion throughout the troposphere produced strong convective rainfall during the first （9 June） and third （17-18 June） rainfall events,whereas strong prescribed ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere and weak subsidence near the surface generated equally important stratiform and convective rainfall during the second rainfall event （14 June）.The analysis of surface rainfall budgets reveals that convective rainfall was associated with atmospheric drying during the first event and moisture convergence during the third event.Both stratiform and convective rainfall responded primarily to moisture convergence during the second event.An analysis of grid data shows that the first and third mean rainfall maxima had smaller horizontal scales of the precipitation system than the second.     

四川暴雨过程动力因子指示意义与预报意义研究

本文利用2010年8月18~19日四川盆地西部地区一次引发了泥石流等次生灾害的暴雨天气过程的数值模拟资料及0.5°×0.5°分辨率、每6 h一次的GFS(Global Forecast Model)预报资料,结合集合动力因子预报系统中的广义对流涡度矢量垂直分量、质量散度、垂直螺旋度、质量垂直螺旋度、水汽垂直螺旋度、热力垂直螺旋度、湿热力平流参数、密度散度垂直通量、散度垂直通量、热力散度垂直通量、水汽散度通量、广义 Q 矢量散度等12个动力因子成员对此次暴雨过程进行诊断分析和预报研究,结果显示:(1)集合动力因子预报系统中的动力因子对此次降水落区诊断效果良好;(2)各动力因子区域均值随时间的变化曲线都能表现出降水区域均值随时间变化曲线双峰形态,其中,广义 Q 矢量散度、水汽垂直螺旋度、热力垂直螺旋度、质量垂直螺旋度、垂直螺旋度与降水的相关系数较大(达0.9以上),对此次降水的诊断效果较好;(3)动力因子对此次强降水过程的发展演变具有一定的预报能力。     

20th century seasonal moisture balance in Southeast Asian montane forests from tree cellulose δ18O

The seasonally varying moisture balance in a montane forest of Southeast Asia is reconstructed for the 20th century from the oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O) of subannual tree cellulose samples of Pinus kesiya growing at 1,500?m elevation on Doi Chiang Dao in northern Thailand. The cellulose δ¹⁸O values exhibit a distinctive annual cycle with amplitude of up to 12?‰, which we interpret to represent primarily the seasonal cycle of precipitation δ¹⁸O. The annual mean δ¹⁸O values correlate significantly with the amount of summer monsoon precipitation, and suggest a temporal weakening relationship between the South Asian monsoon and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation over the late 20th century. The cellulose δ¹⁸O annual maxima values, which reflect the dry season moisture status, have declined progressively over the 20th century by about 3.5?‰. We interpret this to indicate a change in the contribution of the isotopically distinct fog water to the dry season soil moisture in response to rising temperature as well as deforestation.     

A quantitative comparison between acoustic sounder returns and the direct measurement of atmospheric temperature fluctuations

Results are presented which show that reasonably accurate estimates of the atmospheric temperature structure paparmeter C _T ² can be derived from the returns of a monostatic acoustic sounder in both stable and convective atmospheric conditions.     

The impact of soil moisture on dispersion-related characteristics

This study investigates the impact of soil moisture availability on dispersion-related characteristics: surface fric-tion velocity (u*), characteristic scales of temperature and humidity (T* and q*), the planetary boundary layer height (h) and atmospheric stability classified by Monin-Obukhov length (L), Kazanski-Monin parameter (μ) and convective velocity scale (w*) during daytime convective condition using a one-dimensional primitive equation with a refined soil model.     

An investigation of the controls on Irish precipitation δ18O values on monthly and event timescales

This two-year study investigates the relative influence of meteorological variables (precipitation amount and temperature), atmospheric circulation, air mass history, and moisture source region on Irish precipitation oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁸O_p) on event and monthly timescales. Single predictor correlations reveal that on the event scale, 20% of δ¹⁸O_p variability is attributable to the amount effect and 7% to the temperature effect while on the monthly timescale the North Atlantic Oscillation accounts for up to 20% of δ¹⁸O_p variability and the amount and temperature effects are not significant. In comparison, multivariate linear regression reveals that the interaction of temperature and precipitation amount explains up to 40% of δ¹⁸O_p variance at event and monthly timescales. Five-day kinematic back trajectories suggest that the amount-weighted mean δ¹⁸O_p value of southerly- and northerly-derived events are lower by 2‰ relative to events derived from the west. Because air mass history and atmospheric circulation appear to influence δ¹⁸O_p in Ireland, Irish paleo-δ¹⁸O_p proxy records are best interpreted as reflecting a combination of parameters, not just paleotemperature or paleorainfall.