联合高频GNSS和强震数据快速反演四川泸定6.8级地震断层破裂特征

北京时间2022年9月5日12时52分,四川甘孜藏族自治州泸定县发生6.8级地震.利用震中附近1 Hz高频GNSS观测数据获取了同震速度和位移波形,并快速测定了泸定地震的震中和震级.实验结果表明：高频GNSS反演的震中与美国地质调查局(USGS)发布的震中相差32 km,与中国地震台网中心发布值相差16 km;高频GNSS反演的震级,与两个机构均仅差0.1个震级单位.针对地震预警、震后快速响应等时效性应用,提出了一种联合高频GNSS和强震数据的线源破裂特征快速反演方法.泸定地震实验结果表明：在震后20 s时可获得稳定的线源模型,破裂长度、方向和破裂模式值分别为33.3 km、151°和0.6,破裂方向与USGS震源机制解断层走向相差14°,反演的断层破裂模式为双侧破裂.提出的地震断层破裂特征快速反演方法可用于地震预警、震后灾害快速评估以及紧急响应,同时可为今后联合高频GNSS和强震数据快速测定地震破裂特征提供参考.     

海底地震有限断层破裂模型对近场海啸数值预报的影响

快速准确的海啸源模型是近场海啸精确预警的关键.尽管目前还没有办法直接对其进行正演定量计算,但是可以通过多源地震、海啸观测数据进行反演或联合反演推算.不同的海啸源可能导致不同的预警结论,了解不同类型海啸源适用性、评估海啸源特征差异对近场海啸的影响,无论对于海啸预警还是海啸模拟研究尤为重要.本文评估分析了6种不同同震断层模型对2011年3月11日日本东北地震海啸近场数值预报的影响,重点对比分析了有限断层模型与均一滑动场模型对近场海啸产生、传播、淹没特征的影响及各自的误差.研究表明:近场海啸波能量分布主要取决于海啸源分布特征,特别是走向角的差异对海啸能量分布影响较大;有限断层模型对海啸灾害最为严重的39°N以南沿岸地区的最大海啸爬坡高度明显优于均一滑动场模型结果;综合对比DART浮标、GPS浮标及近岸潮位站共32个站次的海啸波幅序列结果发现有限断层模型整体平均绝对/相对误差比均一滑动场模型平均误差要低,其中Fujii海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差最小,分别是0.56m和26.71%.UCSB海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差次之.3个均一滑动场模型中USGSCMT海啸源模拟精度最高.相对于深海、浅海观测站,有限断层模型比均一滑动场模型对近岸观测站计算精度更高.海啸源误差具有显著的方向性,可能与反演所采用的波形数据的代表性有关;谱分析结果表明Fujii海啸源对在12至60min主频波谱的模拟要优于UCSB海啸源.海啸源中很难真实反映海底地震破裂过程,然而通过联合反演海啸波形数据推算海啸源的方法可以快速确定海啸源,并且最大限度的降低地震破裂过程与海啸产生的不确定性带来的误差.     

地震预警中同震位移烈度的自动化产出——以苍山5.2级地震为例

本文以苍山5.2级地震为例,探讨了同震位移烈度方法在山东地区地震预警中的应用,着重介绍了同震位移烈度在预警中的自动化产出。同震位移烈度方法在强震后可以快速地得到极震区的烈度分布,能够满足地震预警的要求,但首先要建立研究区域的格林函数和断层参数的数据库,震后根据地震预警中快速定位的结果按距离最小原则调用数据库中震源附近网格点的格林函数和断层信息,生成断层模型,后台计算同震位移的分布,再通过同震位移和烈度的经验对应关系快速自动化产出发震区周围的烈度分布结果,这对强地震预警、震后快速灾害评估和应急救援都有很重要的指导作用。     

基于多点源的W-phase反演及其在2004年 苏门答腊MW9.1大地震中的应用

在大地震发生后,快速准确地获得地震震源信息对应急救援十分重要,但是现有技术方法往往难以在快速准确地获取地震震源机制的同时获得破裂空间的分布特征。文章在传统W-phase反演技术的基础上开发了多点源W-phase反演方法,实现对大震破裂空间尺度上能量释放特征及震源机制的快速测定,并以2004年苏门答腊M_W 9.1大地震为例,测试程序的有效性。研究中设置了1、2、3、4、5、6个点源来分别测定此次地震的能量释放特征及震源机制。结果显示,震源机制随着空间位置由南向北的变化与俯冲面走向变化一致,与设定点源附近的历史地震震源机制高度吻合。因此,基于多点源的W-phase快速反投影技术将能更好获得大震空间能量释放特征,为震后应急及海啸预警提供科学支持。     

强震后地表变形的动力学机制研究—以1999年台湾集集地震为例

强震后地表变形的动力学机制是地球动力学研究的重要方面,现在普遍认为震后变形主要由断层的震后余滑或由介质的黏弹性松弛所至。1999年台湾集集地震GPS观测系统记录到了空前的资料,为研究震后变形的动力学机制提供了难得的机会。本研究认为集集地震后地表变形由震后断层余滑、下地壳／上地幔的黏弹性松弛、震源区介质的破裂、孔隙弹性回跳、地下流体的运移、介质孔隙度及孔隙压的变化等多种因素共同影响决定。为抓住重点,研究中将介质的破裂、地下流体的运移和孔隙弹性回跳等因素等效为震源区介质的物性变化。文中运用黏弹性有限单元模型（麦克斯威尔体）、利用GPS观测的时间序列资料对震后余滑、地壳／地幔黏度以及等效的震源区介质物性变化进行了反演。反演模型给出了震后余滑的分布及变化特征,反演结果初步显示台湾地区的下地壳／上地幔的黏度分别为2.7×10^18,4.2×10^20Pa·s。此外,反演结果还给出每种影响因素对地表变形的贡献大小,在集集地震后的450d时间里,断层的震后余滑引起的地表变形占总变形的44.6％,下地壳／上地幔的黏性松弛占34.7％,等效的震源区介质的物性变化占20.7％。     

基于强震动资料的破裂过程快速反演及其自动化的可行性

破裂过程快速反演是目前快速获取地震灾害特征的主要手段之一,是震后应急工作的重要内容.近十年来基于远震资料开展的手动快速反演工作取得了长足进步,但在响应时间方面存在固有的局限,阻碍了反演效率的持续提升.我们根据新近发展的IDS （Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking）自动反演方法,尝试反演近场强震动资料确定破裂过程,探讨破裂过程反演自动化的可行性.对近几年国内发生的强震——包括2013年芦山M_W6.6地震、2016年青海门源M_W5.9地震和2016年新疆阿克陶M_W6.6地震——的应用结果表明,采用IDS方法反演强震数据可以得到稳定可靠的破裂模型,且反演计算时间都控制在几十秒内.此外,以2008年汶川M_W7.9地震为例,测试了不同子断层尺度、截止频率和地壳速度结构模型对反演结果的影响,发现滑动分布主要特征不强烈依赖于反演参数和地壳模型,证实了自动反演的稳定性和很强的适应能力.这一研究表明,基于强震动资料的自动反演可能是破裂过程快速反演的主要发展方向.特别地,在未来强震动台网持续发展、强震动数据的质量和共享速度都得到进一步提高之后,这一工作可望纳入到地震参数的常规自动测定工作中,为震后应急和海域地震的海啸预警提供急需的震源模型.     

震后近断层震动图的快速产出研究—以2022年1月8日青海门源地震为例

震后近断层震动图的快速产出对于政府相关部门快速确定地震影响区、评估震害及其导致的经济损失和人员伤亡、科学决策应急救援方案和措施以减轻人员伤亡和财产损失具有重要意义。以2022年门源地震为例,利用滑动分布、应力降均不同的两个震源模型（即,王卫民等反演的震源模型和本研究生成的随机滑动震源模型）以及相同的路径、场地模型和其它输入参数,使用动力学拐角频率的随机有限断层方法和本研究建立的峰值地面速度（PGV）、水平向最大谱烈度（SI）和中国仪器地震烈度（I_I）的经验模型研究了快速产出近断层震动图（包括峰值地面加速度图、PGV图、SI图、I_I图和中国地震烈度图）的实效性。结果表明:（1）上述方法和经验模型可用于震后震动图的快速产出,其实效性主要取决于震源、路径和场地模型的可靠性;（2）基于上述两种震源模型产出的地震烈度图与中国地震局发布的该次地震的烈度图在总体上具有高度一致性,均可用于确定地震影响区,但基于反演震源模型产出的地震烈度图可以给出极震区,而基于随机滑动震源模型产出的地震烈度图则需要根据其最大等震线和发震断层的位置大致估计极震区的位置。     

2017年九寨沟MS7.0级地震震源过程反演与烈度估计

2017年8月8日,在我国四川省九寨沟县发生一次M_S7.0级地震.在快速响应的基础上,重新筛选远场地震波形资料并收集覆盖震中区的InSAR资料对主震的震源破裂过程重新进行了反演分析,收集震后约13 h的余震震相数据对余震进行了双差定位,并基于此对发震断层的复杂性进行了讨论,提出了有待进一步研究的问题.最后,利用反演得到的有限动态破裂模型对地震烈度进行了估计.     

建立南海地震海啸监测预警系统的构思

南海东南边缘的马尼拉海沟是国际上公认具有发生破坏性地震海啸条件的危险地区,由于南海没有大面积的岛屿阻隔海啸传播,如果在马尼拉海沟发生大地震引发海啸,那么将对广东省漫长的海岸线造成严重破坏。广东省南海地震海啸监测预警系统建设在广东省地震速报系统和国家地震自动速报备份系统的基础上,由地震速报、震源机制快速计算、海啸数值模拟计算等模块组成,对南海地震海啸进行实时监测,提供海啸波浪到达海岸线的估计时刻和最大海浪高度,提供预警信息等社会公共服务。     

2023年8月6日山东平原5.5级地震震源参数初步分析

北京时间2023年8月6日2时33分山东德州市平原县(37.16°N,116.34°E)发生5.5级地震,中国地震台网中心部署的预警试运行系统于震后7.5s产出首报预警结果。中国地震台网中心于震后2min发布自动速报结果,于震后10min发布正式速报结果,同时联合多家单位启动地震应急产品产出工作,共产出震源参数、历史地震、地震构造、震源机制、余震精定位、推测烈度和震源破裂过程等9类应急产品。结果显示,本次地震发生在林南断裂附近,震源机制解表明该地震为一次走滑型事件; 余震精定位结果显示余震展布呈近NEE向,与震中附近断裂方向一致; 烈度速报推测极震区烈度达Ⅷ度,区域面积约528km²,Ⅶ度及以上区域总面积约1694km²。     

国际海啸预警系统(ITWS)

介绍了国际海啸预警系统的构成、地震与海啸信息的检测、海啸预警信息的发布，并介绍了太平洋海啸预警中心和阿拉斯加海啸预警中心。     

On the Application of Mwp in the Near Field and the March 11, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

Tsunami Warning Centers issue rapid and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal populations by estimating the location and size of the causative earthquake as soon as possible after rupture initiation. Both US Tsunami Warning Centers have therefore been using Mwp to issue Tsunami Warnings 5–10 min after Earthquake origin time since 2002. However, because Mwp (Tsuboi et al., Bulletin of the Seismological society of America 85:606–613, 1995) is based on the far-field approximation to the P-wave displacement due to a double couple point source, we should only very carefully apply Mwp to data obtained in the near field, at distances of less than a few wavelengths from the fault. On the other hand, the surface waves from Great Earthquakes, including those that occur just offshore of populated areas, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, clip seismographs located near the fault. Because the first arriving P-waves from such large events are often on scale, Mwp should provide useful information, even for these Great Earthquakes. We therefore calculate Mwp from 18 unclipped STS-1 broadband P-wave seismograms, recorded at 2–15° distance from the Tohoku epicenter to determine if Mwp can usefully estimate Mw for this earthquake, using data obtained close to the epicenter. In this case there should be a good chance to get reliable Mwp values for stations at epicentral distances of 9–10°, since the source duration for the Tohoku earthquake is less than 200 s and the time window used to estimate Mwp is 120 s in duration. Our analysis indicates that Mwp does indeed give reliable results (Mw ~ 9.1) beginning at about 11° distance from the epicenter. The values of Mwp from seismic waveforms obtained at 11–15° epicentral distance from the Mw 9.1 off the east coast of Tohuku earthquake of March 11, 2011 fell within the range 9.1–9.3, and were available within 4–5 min after origin time. Even the Mwp values of 7.7–8.4, obtained at less than 5° epicentral distance, exceed the PTWC’s threshold of Mw 7.6 for issuing a regional tsunami warning to coastal populations within 1,000 km of the epicenter, and of Mw 6.9 for issuing a local tsunami warning to the coastal populations of Hawaii.     

葡萄牙破坏性地震和海啸预警系统(DETWS)

本文介绍了葡萄牙破坏性地震和海啸预警系统(Destructive Earthquakes and Tsunami Warning System)的构成、地震与海啸信息的检测、海啸预警信息的发布。     

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.     

Tsunami generation of the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake

Heterogeneous fault motion of the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake is studied by using seismic, geodetic and tsunami data, and the tsunami generation from the fault model is examined. Seismological analyses indicate that the focal mechanism of the first 10 s, when about a third of the total moment was released, is different from the overall focal mechanism. A joint inversion of geodetic data on Okushiri Island and the tide gauge records in Japan and Korea indicates that the largest slip, about 6 m, occurred in a small area just south of the epicenter. This corresponds to the initial rupture on a fault plane dipping shallowly to the west. The slip on the northernmost subfault, which is dipping to the east, is about 2 m, while the slips on the southern subfaults, which are steeply dipping to the west, are more than 3 m. Tsunami heights around Okushiri Island are calculated from the heterogeneous fault model using different grid sizes. Computation on the smaller grids produces large tsunami height that are closer to the observed tsunami runup heights. Tsunami propagation in the nearly closed Japan Sea is examined as the free oscillation of the Japan Sea. The excitation of the free oscillation by this earthquake is smaller than that by the 1964 Niigata or 1983 Japan Sea earthquake.     

The July 15, 2009 Fiordland,New Zealand Tsunami: Real-Time Assessment

On 15 July 2009, a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred off the New Zealand coast, which by serendipitous coincidence occurred while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk, Russia. The earthquake generated a tsunami that propagated across the Tasman Sea and was detected in New Zealand, Australia and as far away as the US West coast. Small boats close to the epicenter were placed in jeopardy, but no significant damage was observed despite a measured run-up height of 2.3 m in one of the Sounds in close proximity to the source (Wilson in GNS Science Report 46:62 2009). Peak-to-trough tsunami heights of 55 cm were measured at Southport, Tasmania and a height of 1 m was measured in Jackson Bay, New Zealand. The International Tsunami Symposium provided an ideal venue for illustration of the value of immediate real-time assessment and provided an opportunity to further validate the real time forecasting capabilities with the scientific community in attendance. A number of agencies with responsibility for tsunami forecast and/or warning, such as the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science in New Zealand, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the European Commission Joint Research Centre were all represented at the meeting and were able to demonstrate the use of state of the art numerical models to assess the tsunami potential and provide warning as appropriate.     

Relationship of Tsunami Intensity to Source Earthquake Magnitude as Retrieved from Historical Data

Operational prediction of near-field tsunamis in all existing Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) is based on fast determination of the position and size of submarine earthquakes. Exceedance of earthquake magnitude above some established threshold value, which can vary over different tsunamigenic zones, results in issuing a warning signal. Usually, a warning message has several (from 2 to 5) grades reflecting the degree of tsunami danger and sometimes contains expected wave heights at the coast. Current operational methodology is based on two main assumptions: (1) submarine earthquakes above some threshold magnitude can generate dangerous tsunamis and (2) the height of a resultant tsunami is, in general, proportional to the earthquake magnitude. While both assumptions are physically reasonable and generally correct, statistics of issued warnings are far from being satisfactory. For the last 55 years, up to 75% of warnings for regional tsunamis have turned out to be false, while each TWS has had at least a few cases of missing dangerous tsunamis. This paper presents the results of investigating the actual dependence of tsunami intensity on earthquake magnitude as it can be retrieved from historical observations and discusses the degree of correspondence of the above assumptions to real observations. Tsunami intensity, based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale is used as a measure of tsunami “size”. Its correlation with the M _s and M _w magnitudes is investigated based on historical data available for the instrumental period of observations (from 1900 to present).     

W Phase Inversion and Tsunami Inundation Modeling for Tsunami Early Warning: Case Study for the 2011 Tohoku Event

Centroid moment tensor solutions for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake are determined by W phase inversions using 5 and 10 min data recorded by the Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net). By a scaling relation of moment magnitude to rupture area and an assumption of rigidity of 4 × 10¹⁰ N m^?2, simple rectangular earthquake fault models are estimated from the solutions. Tsunami inundations in the Sendai Plain, Minamisanriku, Rikuzentakata, and Taro are simulated using the estimated fault models. Then the simulated tsunami inundation area and heights are compared with the observations. Even the simulated tsunami heights and inundations from the W phase solution that used only 5 min data are considerably similar to the observations. The results are improved when using 10 min of W phase data. These show that the W phase solutions are reliable to be used for tsunami inundation modeling. Furthermore, the technique that combines W phase inversion and tsunami inundation modeling can produce results that have sufficient accuracy for tsunami early warning purposes.     

Tsunamis and tsunami warning: Recent progress and future prospects

Tsunamis are one of the most destructive disasters in the ocean.Large tsunamis are mostly generated by earthquakes,and they can propagate across the ocean without significantly losing energy.During the shoaling process in coastal areas,the wave amplitude increases dramatically,causing severe life loss and property damage.There have been frequent tsunamis since the 21 st century,drawing the attention of many countries on the study of tsunami mechanism and warning.Tsunami records also play an essential role in deriving earthquake rupture models in subduction zones.This paper reviews the recent progress and limitations of tsunami research,from the aspects of tsunami generation,propagation,inversion and warning.Potential tsunami warning strategies are discussed and future prospects on tsunami research are provided.