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1.
I. P. Holman R. J. Nicholls P. M. Berry P. A. Harrison E. Audsley S. Shackley M. D. A. Rounsevell 《Climatic change》2005,71(1-2):9-41
Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the
local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study
developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and
regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving
landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’
(DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical
modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution
(10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been
raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role
of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of
integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new
insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments. 相似文献
2.
Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt ‘autonomously’, since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour. 相似文献
3.
“A convenient truth”: air travel passengers’ willingness to pay to offset their CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Several economic reviews demonstrate the substantial costs related to climate change and consequently call for early action.
These reviews, however, have been limited to measuring ‘objective’ risks and expected material damage related to climate change.
The ‘subjective’ perceived risk of climate change and society’s willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid these risks are expected
to provide an important additional motivation for direct action. We investigate whether and why air travel passengers—an increasingly
important source of greenhouse gas emissions—are supportive of measures that increase the cost of their travel based on the
polluter pays principle and compensate the damage caused by their flight. Compared to the results of the few previous studies
that have elicited WTP estimates for climate policy more generally, our results appear to be at the lower end of the scale,
while a comparison to estimates of the social cost of carbon shows that the average WTP estimate in this study is close to
the estimated marginal damage cost. Although significant differences are found between travellers from Europe, North America,
Asia and the rest of the world, we show that there exists a substantial demand for climate change mitigation action. The positive
risk premium over and above the expected property damage cost assessments should be accounted for more explicitly in economic
reviews as it will add to the burden of proof of direct action. Measurements of passenger WTP will help policy makers to design
effective financial instruments aimed at discouraging climate-unfriendly travel activities as well as to generate funds for
the measures directed at climate change mitigation and adaptation. Based on stated WTP by travellers to offset their greenhouse
gas emissions, funds in the order of magnitude of €23 billion could be generated annually to finance climate change mitigation
activities. 相似文献
4.
This paper discusses methodological issues relevant to the calculation of historical responsibility of countries for climate
change (‘The Brazilian Proposal’). Using a simple representation of the climate system, the paper compares contributions to
climate change using different indicators: current radiative forcing, current GWP-weighted emissions, radiative forcing from
increased concentrations, cumulative GWP-weighted emissions, global-average surface-air temperature increase and two new indicators:
weighted concentrations (analogue to GWP-weighted emissions) and integrated temperature increase. Only the last two indicators
are at the same time ‘backward looking’ (take into account historical emissions), ‘backward discounting’ (early emissions
weigh less, depending on the decay in the atmosphere) and ‘forward looking’ (future effects of the emissions are considered)
and are comparable for all gases. Cumulative GWP-weighted emissions are simple to calculate but are not ‘backward discounting’.
‘Radiative forcing’ and ‘temperature increase’ are not ‘forward looking’. ‘Temperature increase’ discounts the emissions of
the last decade due to the slow response of the climate system. It therefore gives low weight to regions that have recently
significantly increased emissions. Results of the five different indicators are quite similar for large groups (but possibly
not for individual countries): industrialized countries contributed around 60% to today’s climate change, developing countries
around 40% (using the available data for fossil, industrial and forestry CO2, CH4 and N2O). The paper further argues including non-linearities of the climate system or using a simplified linear system is a political
choice. The paper also notes that results of contributions to climate change need to be interpreted with care: Countries that
developed early benefited economically, but have high historical emission, and countries developing at a later period can
profit from developments in other countries and are therefore likely to have a lower contribution to climate change. 相似文献
5.
This study applies the Ricardian technique to estimate the effect of climate change on the smallholder agriculture sector
in Sri Lanka. The main contribution of the paper is the use of household-level data to analyze long-term climate impacts on
farm profitability. Household-level data allows us to control for a host of factors such as human and physical capital available
to farmers as well as adaptation mechanisms at the farm level. We find that non-climate variables explain about half the variation
in net revenues. However, our results suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on smallholder profitability.
In particular, reductions in precipitation during key agricultural months can be devastating. At the national level, a change
in net revenues of between −23% and +22% is likely depending on the climate change scenario simulated. These impacts will
vary considerably across geographic areas from losses of 67% to gains that more than double current net revenues. The largest
adverse impacts are anticipated in the dry zones of the North Central region and the dry zones of the South Eastern regions
of Sri Lanka. On the other hand, the intermediate and wet zones are likely to benefit, mostly due to the predicted increase
in rainfall. 相似文献
6.
Salvador Pueyo 《Climatic change》2007,82(1-2):131-161
Here I present a new approach to forecasting the effects of climate change on catastrophic events, based on the ‘self-organised
criticality’ concept from statistical physics. In particular, I develop the ‘self-organised critical fuel succession model’
(SOCFUS), which deals with wildland fires. I show that there is good agreement between model and data for the response pattern
of the whole fire size statistical distribution to weather fluctuations in a boreal forest region. I tentatively predict the
fire regime in this region for an instance of possible climate change scenario. I show that the immediate response is sharper
than usually thought, but part of the added burning rate might not persist indefinitely. A large fraction of the extra burning
in the transition period is likely to be concentrated in a few ‘climate change fires’, much larger than the largest fires
that could currently occur. I also suggest that the major fire events recently observed in some tropical rainforest regions
belong to a qualitatively different, even more abrupt type of response, which is also predicted by the model.
Electronic supplementary material Electronic supplementary material is available for this article at 相似文献
7.
Many of the decisions relating to future urban development require information on climate change risks to cities This review
of the academic and “grey” literature provides an overview assessment of the state of the art in the quantification and valuation
of climate risks at the city-scale. We find that whilst a small number of cities, mostly in OECD countries, have derived quantitative
estimates of the costs of climate change risks under alternative scenarios, this form of analysis is in its infancy. The climate
risks most frequently addressed in existing studies are associated with sea-level rise, health and water resources. Other
sectors such as energy, transport, and built infrastructure remain less studied. The review has also undertaken a case study
to examine the progress in two cities—London and New York—which are relatively advanced in the assessment of climate risks
and adaptation. The case studies show that these cities have benefited from stakeholder engagement at an early stage in their
risk assessments. They have also benefited from the development of specific institutional responsibilities for co-ordinating
such research from the outset. This involvement has been critical in creating momentum and obtaining resources for subsequent
in-depth analysis of sectoral impacts and adaptation needs..While low cost climate down-scaling applications would be useful
in future research, the greatest priority is to develop responses that can work within the high future uncertainty of future
climate change, to build resilience and maintain flexibility. This can best be used within the context of established risk
management practices. 相似文献
8.
Farmer beliefs and concerns about climate change and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation: Evidence from Iowa 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Agriculture is both vulnerable to climate change impacts and a significant source of greenhouse gases. Increasing agriculture’s resilience and reducing its contribution to climate change are societal priorities. Survey data collected from Iowa farmers are analyzed to answer the related research questions: (1) do farmers support adaptation and mitigation actions, and (2) do beliefs and concerns about climate change influence those attitudes. Results indicate that farmers who were concerned about the impacts of climate change on agriculture and attributed it to human activities had more positive attitudes toward both adaptive and mitigative management strategies. Farmers who believed that climate change is not a problem because human ingenuity will enable adaptations and who did not believe climate change is occurring or believed it is a natural phenomenon—a substantial percentage of farmers—tended not to support mitigation. 相似文献
9.
A typology of dairy farmer perceptions towards climate change 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Dairy farming is an industry which could potentially mitigate a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. However, perception
and acceptance towards climate change is a significant barrier to voluntary adoption of best practice techniques. A number
of countries have set targets for reducing emissions, of which Scotland has one of the most ambitious agendas. This paper
presents results from an extensive survey of 540 dairy farmers, conducted in 2009, with the aim of understanding attitudes,
values and intentions towards climate change. Only half of these farmers agreed that temperatures would rise in the future
and this could significantly hinder adoption of voluntary measures to meet emissions targets. To explore this further a typology
was developed on the responses to attitude and value statements, using principal components and cluster analysis methods.
Six distinct types were found to exist which had a range of outlooks towards the impact of climate change in the future. However,
five of the six types stated no intention to adopt practices which would reduce emissions. The typology approach supports
diversified engagement strategies and a more innovation-led or resource maximisation view towards farming was expressed by
several of these types. This may indicate that policy makers should focus on ‘win-win’ technologies as a means to effectively
engage with these. However, a number of types were disengaged from the process which was driven by uncertainties towards projections
for global warming and this needs to be addressed by both scientists and policy makers to ensure greater participation within
the farming community. 相似文献
10.
We develop a systems framework for exploring adaptation pathways to climate change among people in remote and marginalized regions. The framework builds on two common and seemingly paradoxical narratives about people in remote regions. The first is recognition that people in remote regions demonstrate significant resilience to climate and resource variability, and may therefore be among the best equipped to adapt to climate change. The second narrative is that many people in remote regions are chronically disadvantaged and therefore are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. These narratives, taken in isolation and in extremis, can have significant maladaptive policy and practice implications. From a systems perspective, both narratives may be valid, because they form elements of latent and dominant feedback loops that require articulation for a nuanced understanding of vulnerability-reducing and resilience-building responses in a joint framework. Through literature review and community engagement across three remote regions on different continents, we test the potential of the framework to assist dialogue about adaptation pathways in remote marginalized communities. In an adaptation pathway view, short-term responses to vulnerability can risk locking in a pathway that increases specific resilience but creates greater vulnerability in the long-term. Equally, longer-term actions towards increasing desirable forms of resilience need to take account of short-term realities to respond to acute and multiple needs of marginalized remote communities. The framework was useful in uniting vulnerability and resilience narratives, and broadening the scope for adaptation policy and action on adaptation pathways for remote regions. 相似文献
11.
Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Muhuddin Rajin Anwar De Li Liu Ian Macadam Georgina Kelly 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(1-2):225-245
The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer’s training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short-term, medium-term, and long-term initiatives, with each initiative in one stage contributing to initiatives in a subsequent stage. The learning by doing inherent in such a process-oriented approach is a requirement owing to the many uncertainties associated with climate change. 相似文献
12.
Adaptation of California’s electricity sector to climate change 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Edward Vine 《Climatic change》2012,111(1):75-99
Climate change is likely to pose considerable new challenges to California’s electricity sector. This paper primarily focuses
on the adaptation challenges of an important component of the energy arena: electricity demand in the residential and commercial
sectors and electricity supply. The primary challenge to California’s electricity sector will likely be the increase in demand
for air conditioning as a result of rising temperatures. In addition, renewable energy sources, which are an increasing share
of the electricity portfolio, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Many of the key players have been actively considering
the implications of climate change. Because electricity generation accounts for nearly 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, this
sector has been a target of the state’s efforts to reduce emissions. Fortunately, many of the same tools can simultaneously
improve the sector’s resilience to a changing climate. Demand management strategies and supply diversification are both important
strategies. Local governments can play a central role in encouraging the adoption of more energy efficient building codes
and the use of more renewable sources, such as solar energy. The positive steps taken by many local governments are encouraging.
Steps to increase public awareness are an important, often missing component, however. Increases in research, development,
and demonstration to improve system resiliency and develop new energy conservation tools are also needed. 相似文献
13.
Georgina H. Endfield 《Climatic change》2007,83(1-2):9-38
In this paper, unpublished archival documentary sources are used to explore the vulnerability to–and implications of–climatic
variability and extreme weather events in colonial Mexico. Attention focuses on three regions covering a variety of environmental,
social, economic, and political contexts and histories and located at key points along a north-south rainfall gradient: Chihuahua
in the arid north, Oaxaca in the wetter south and Guanajuato located in the central Mexican highlands. A number of themes
are considered. First, the significance of successive, prolonged, or combined climate events as triggers of agrarian crisis.
Second, a case study demonstrating the national and regional impacts of a particularly devastating climate induced famine,
culminating with the so-called ‘Year of Hunger’ between 1785 and 1786, is presented. The way in which social networks and
community engagement were rallied as a means of fortifying social resilience to this and other crises will be highlighted.
Third, the impacts of selected historical flood events are explored in order to highlight how the degree of impact of a flood
was a function of public expectation, preparedness and also the particular socio-economic and environmental context in which
the event took place. An overview of the spatial and temporal variations in vulnerability and resilience to climatic variability
and extreme weather events in colonial Mexico is then provided, considering those recorded events that could potentially relate
to broader scale, possibly global, climate changes. 相似文献
14.
作为全球性危机,新冠疫情和气候危机在影响范围、效果、原因等方面的相似之处可能使两种危机的效果叠加,而二者的不同之处又可能导致应对政策的相互干扰,带来更加严峻的复合风险。文中全面分析了全球面临的新冠疫情和气候危机的复合风险,识别了新冠疫情对全球气候变化适应进程的影响,以及适应在各国疫后绿色复苏计划中的地位。研究表明,目前全球的绿色复苏中较少考虑适应,而绿色复苏为同时恢复经济和增强气候恢复力提供了机会,如果能在绿色复苏中考虑变革性适应,将显著提升社会经济系统对气候变化等冲击的抵御能力与恢复力,实现疫情后更持续和更有韧性的经济发展。 相似文献
15.
Farm-Level Adaptation to Climatic Variability and Change: Crop Diversification in the Canadian Prairies 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Among other foci, recent research on adaptation to climatic variability and change has sought to evaluate the merit of adaptation generally, as well as the suitability of particular adaptations. Additionally, there is a need to better understand the likely uptake of adaptations. For example, diversification is one adaptation that has been identified as a potential farm-level response to climatic variability and change, but its adoption by farmers for this reason is not well understood. This paper serves two purposes. The first is to document the adoption of crop diversification in Canadian prairie agriculture for the period 1994–2002, reflect upon its strengths and limitations for managing a variety of risks, including climatic ones, and gauge its likely adoption by producers in response to anticipated climate change. The second purpose is to draw on this case to refine our current understanding of climate change adaptation more generally. Based upon data from over 15 000 operations, it was determined that individual farms have become more specialized in their cropping patterns since 1994, and this trend is unlikely to change in the immediate future, notwithstanding anticipated climate change and the known risk-reducing benefits of crop diversification. More broadly, the analysis suggests that suitable and even possible climate change adaptations need to be more rigorously assessed in order to understand their wider strengths and limitations. 相似文献
16.
Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jesús Antón Andrea Cattaneo Shingo Kimura Jussi Lankoski 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1726-1736
Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change. 相似文献
17.
Climate change is a fundamental challenge for which agriculture is sensitive and vulnerable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified relevant information as key to enabling appropriate climate adaptation and mitigation action. Information specifically directed to farmers can be found, for example, in specialized farming magazines. While recent studies examine how national news media frame climate change, less—if any—studies have addressed climate framings and coverage in specialized media. Media framings are storylines that provide meaning by communicating how and why an issue should be seen as a problem, how it should be handled, and who is responsible for it. This paper analyses the framings and coverage of climate change in two Swedish specialized farming magazines from 2000 to 2009. It examines the extent of the climate change coverage, the content of the media items, and the dominant framings underlying their climate change coverage. The study identifies: increased coverage of climate change starting in 2007; frequent coverage of agriculture’s contribution to climate change, climate change impacts on agriculture, and consequences of climate politics for agriculture; and four prominent frames: conflict, scientific certainty, economic burden, and action. The paper concludes that climate change communicators addressing farmers and agricultural extension officers should pay attention to how these frames may be interpreted by different target audiences. Research is needed on how specialized media reports on climate-related issues and how science-based climate information is understood by different groups of farmers and which other factors influence farmers’ engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation. 相似文献
18.
Establishing parkland agroforestry on currently treeless cropland in the West African Sahel may help mitigate climate change. To evaluate its potential, we used climatically suitable ranges for parklands for 19 climate scenarios, derived by ecological niche modeling, for estimating potential carbon stocks in parkland and treeless cropland. A biocarbon business model was used to evaluate profitability of hypothetical Terrestrial Carbon Projects (TCPs), across a range of farm sizes, farm numbers, carbon prices and benefit sharing mechanisms. Using climate analogues, we explored potential climate change trajectories for selected locations. If mature parklands covered their maximum range, carbon stocks in Sahelian productive land would be about 1,284?Tg, compared to 725?Tg in a treeless scenario. Due to slow increase rates of total system carbon by 0.4?Mg?C?ha?1 a?1, most TCPs at carbon prices that seem realistic today were not feasible, or required the participation of large numbers of farmers. For small farms, few TCP scenarios were feasible, and low Net Present Values for farmers made it unlikely that carbon payments would motivate many to participate in TCPs, unless additional benefits were provided. Climate analogue locations indicated an uncertain climate trajectory for the Sahel, but most scenarios projected increasing aridity and reduced suitability for parklands. The potentially severe impacts of climate change on Sahelian ecosystems and the uncertain profitability of TCPs make the Sahel highly risky for carbon investments. Given the likelihood of degrading environmental conditions, the search for appropriate adaptation strategies should take precedence over promoting mitigation activities. 相似文献
19.
In recent years, an increasing number of local governments are recognizing the impact of climate change on different urban sectors. This has led many to pursue climate adaptation planning, seeking to achieve preparedness through reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience of populations, assets, and municipal operations. Although cities typically share these common goals, many are electing to pursue different planning approaches. In this paper, we examine three climate adaptation planning approaches in the cities of Quito (Ecuador), Surat (India), and Durban (South Africa) and analyze the trade-offs associated with different planning pathways and different forms of stakeholder involvement. We assess the potentials and limitations of these different approaches, including their implications for enhancing government integration and coordination, promoting participation and adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups, and facilitating overall urban resilience. We find that, in order to gain widespread commitment on adaptation, sustained political leadership from the top, departmental engagement, and continued involvement from a variety of stakeholders are integral to effective decision-making and institutionalization of programs in the long run. When climate adaptation is advanced with a focus on learning, awareness, and capacity building, the process will likely lead to more sustained, legitimate, and comprehensive adaptation plans and policies that enhance the resilience of the most affected urban areas and residents. 相似文献
20.
The view that the agricultural sector could largely offset any negative impacts of climate change by altering production practices assumes the government will not create disincentives for farmers to adapt. U.S. farm programs, however, often discourage such obvious adaptations as switching crops, investing in water conserving technologies, and entry or exit. We outline a simple portfolio model describing producer decision making: we then use this framework to assess how specific U.S. farm programs might affect adaption to climate change. Three future climate scenarios are considered and in each the present structure of U.S. farm programs discourages adaptation. 相似文献