The neighborhood effects of foreclosure

Neighborhood quality is an important attribute of housing yet its value is rarely known to researchers. We argue that changes in nearby foreclosures reveal changes in neighborhood quality. Thus estimates of the hedonic price of nearby foreclosures provide a glimpse of values that people hold for local neighborhood quality. The empirical models include controls for both spatial dependence in housing prices and in the errors. The estimates indicate that nearby foreclosures produce externalities that are capitalized into home prices—an additional foreclosure within 250 feet of a sale negatively impacts selling price by approximately $1,666, ceteris paribus.     

Relationship between value of open space and distance from housing locations within a community

This research uses a sequence of hedonic spatial regressions for a metropolitan housing market in the Southeastern United States to explore a new procedure that establishes the relationship between the value attributable to open space and distance from housing locations (a “distance-decay function”) within a given community. A distance-decay function allows identification of the range of distance over which open space affects housing values and the estimation of a proxy for the value added to nearby houses resulting from hypothetical open space preservation. Ex post analyses of the open-space regression coefficients suggest marginal implicit price functions for three types of open space that decay as open space area increases with respect to house location. After controlling for other factors in the spatial hedonic model, simple distance-decay functional relationships were established between the implicit prices of developed open space, forest-land open space, and agriculture-wetland open space and the buffer radius of the open-space areas surrounding a given housing location. The proposed method may be useful for identifying the range over which preferences for different types of open space are exhibited.     

Mapping fine‐scale urban housing prices by fusing remotely sensed imagery and social media data

The accurate mapping of urban housing prices at a fine scale is essential to policymaking and urban studies, such as adjusting economic factors and determining reasonable levels of residential subsidies. Previous studies focus mainly on housing price analysis at a macro scale, without fine‐scale study due to a lack of available data and effective models. By integrating a convolutional neural network for united mining (UMCNN) and random forest (RF), this study proposes an effective deep‐learning‐based framework for fusing multi‐source geospatial data, including high spatial resolution (HSR) remotely sensed imagery and several types of social media data, and maps urban housing prices at a very fine scale. With the collected housing price data from China's biggest online real estate market, we produced the spatial distribution of housing prices at a spatial resolution of 5 m in Shenzhen, China. By comparing with eight other multi‐source data mining techniques, the UMCNN obtained the highest housing price simulation accuracy (Pearson R = 0.922, OA = 85.82%). The results also demonstrated a complex spatial heterogeneity inside Shenzhen's housing price distribution. In future studies, we will work continuously on housing price policymaking and residential issues by including additional sources of spatial data.     

Hedonic price models with omitted variables and measurement errors: a constrained autoregression–structural equation modeling approach with application to urban Indonesia

Omitted variables and measurement errors in explanatory variables frequently occur in hedonic price models. Ignoring these problems leads to biased estimators. In this paper, we develop a constrained autoregression–structural equation model (ASEM) to handle both types of problems. Standard panel data models to handle omitted variables bias are based on the assumption that the omitted variables are time-invariant. ASEM allows handling of both time-varying and time-invariant omitted variables by constrained autoregression. In the case of measurement error, standard approaches require additional external information which is usually difficult to obtain. ASEM exploits the fact that panel data are repeatedly measured which allows decomposing the variance of a variable into the true variance and the variance due to measurement error. We apply ASEM to estimate a hedonic housing model for urban Indonesia. To get insight into the consequences of measurement error and omitted variables, we compare the ASEM estimates with the outcomes of (1) a standard SEM, which does not account for omitted variables, (2) a constrained autoregression model, which does not account for measurement error, and (3) a fixed effects hedonic model, which ignores measurement error and time-varying omitted variables. The differences between the ASEM estimates and the outcomes of the three alternative approaches are substantial.     

Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics in a housing market using the spatial vector autoregressive Lasso: A case study of Seoul,Korea

House prices fluctuate spatiotemporally and when influential changes from a region happen, the effects spread out in space over time. Although many studies have introduced various models to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics in housing markets, it is always challenging to consider both dimensions in a model. Some recent studies have identified spatiotemporal interactions of house prices by combining spatial and temporal models via spatial vector autoregression. The approach, however, assumes spatial homogeneity of the variables due to insufficient degrees of freedom. Since the housing market is generally conceived as heterogeneous, we suggest an alternative model of the spatial vector autoregressive Lasso without the homogeneity assumption. As an empirical example, we examine the spatiotemporal interaction between house sales price and rent in Seoul, Korea. The results show that rent for apartments in Gangnam‐gu, a socioeconomic core of Seoul, has positive impacts on rent for apartments in surrounding suburbs rather than their sales price. Moreover, the suggested model outperforms the classical method in terms of explanation, prediction, and autocorrelation of residuals. This research is expected to provide a methodological guide to explore the interaction between house sales price and rent, and insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of the housing market in Seoul.     

Measuring the impact of pollution on property prices in Madrid: objective versus subjective pollution indicators in spatial models

Much work has been done in the context of the hedonic price theory to estimate the impact of air quality on housing prices. Research has employed objective measures of air quality, but only slightly confirms the hedonic theory in the best of cases: the implicit price function relating housing prices to air pollution will, ceteris paribus, be negatively sloped. This paper compares the performance of a spatial Durbin model when using both objective and subjective measures of pollution. On the one hand, we design an Air Pollution Indicator based on measured pollution as the objective measure of pollution. On the other hand, the subjective measure of pollution employed to characterize neighborhoods is the percentage of residents who declare that the neighborhood has serious pollution problems, the percentage being referred to as residents’ perception of pollution. For comparison purposes, the empirical part of this research focuses on Madrid (Spain). The study employs a proprietary database containing information about the price and 27 characteristics of 11,796 owner-occupied single family homes. As far as the authors are aware, it is the largest database ever used to analyze the Madrid housing market. The results of the study clearly favor the use of subjective air quality measures.     

A geostatistical approach to the change-of-support problem and variable-support data fusion in spatial analysis

A key issue to address in synthesizing spatial data with variable-support in spatial analysis and modeling is the change-of-support problem. We present an approach for solving the change-of-support and variable-support data fusion problems. This approach is based on geostatistical inverse modeling that explicitly accounts for differences in spatial support. The inverse model is applied here to produce both the best predictions of a target support and prediction uncertainties, based on one or more measurements, while honoring measurements. Spatial data covering large geographic areas often exhibit spatial nonstationarity and can lead to computational challenge due to the large data size. We developed a local-window geostatistical inverse modeling approach to accommodate these issues of spatial nonstationarity and alleviate computational burden. We conducted experiments using synthetic and real-world raster data. Synthetic data were generated and aggregated to multiple supports and downscaled back to the original support to analyze the accuracy of spatial predictions and the correctness of prediction uncertainties. Similar experiments were conducted for real-world raster data. Real-world data with variable-support were statistically fused to produce single-support predictions and associated uncertainties. The modeling results demonstrate that geostatistical inverse modeling can produce accurate predictions and associated prediction uncertainties. It is shown that the local-window geostatistical inverse modeling approach suggested offers a practical way to solve the well-known change-of-support problem and variable-support data fusion problem in spatial analysis and modeling.     

基于区域特征的城市住宅价格评估模型

针对传统住宅价格模型不足,根据地学区位理论,将区域经济因素引入特征价格模型,提出了基于区域特征的城市住宅价格评估模型.依托郑州市数字房产数据库,选取2007～2010年新建商品房买卖合同数据,利展GIS技术获取样本的位置、距离信息,采用多元线性回归方法对该模型进行了验证.结果表明住宅价格与区域经济、位置特征、邻里特征、...     

西安市商品住宅价格空间格局的演化研究

针对目前城市住宅价格空间格局演化研究不足,尤其是内在驱动机制研究较少的现状,利用2000年、2004年、2008年及2013年4年节点数据,采用空间自相关指数并结合空间变异函数,分析西安市商品住宅价格空间格局演化特征及其驱动机制,为城市住房政策的制定提供参考。结果表明:住宅价格呈现出显著的空间自相关,热点和冷点区发生转移;住宅价格的空间变异程度不断加大,空间分异格局中的随机成分不断降低,结构化分异越来越显著;住宅价格高值区呈现出由双中心向多中心、多圈层演化的趋势;从城市规划引领、居住空间扩张和交通条件改善3个方面探讨住宅价格空间格局演化的驱动机制。     

Estimating commercial property prices: an application of cokriging with housing prices as ancillary information

A vast majority of the recent literature on spatial hedonic analysis has been concerned with residential property values, with only very few examples of studies focused on commercial property prices. The dearth of studies can be attributed to some of the challenges faced in the analysis of commercial properties, in particular the scarcity of information compared to residential transactions. In order to address this issue, in this paper we propose the use of cokriging and housing prices as ancillary information to estimate commercial property prices. Cokriging takes into account the spatial autocorrelation structure of property prices, and the use of more abundant information on housing prices helps to improve the accuracy of property value estimates. A case study of Toledo in Spain, a city for which commercial activity stemming from tourism is one of the key elements of the economy in the city, demonstrates that substantial accuracy and precision gains can be obtained from the use of cokriging.     

基于房产网站数据的商品住宅价格空间分布研究——以成都市为例

从安居客房产网站自动获取成都市的商品住宅资料,利用GIS方法分析成都市商品住宅价格的空间分布特征,得出了成都市商品房价格空间分布结果和发展趋势。     

兰州市商品住宅价格的空间分异规律

针对住宅价格在城市空间中的分布规律问题,该文以兰州市主城区2015年在售的187个商品住宅样本均价为基本数据,运用空间自相关法对兰州市住宅价格的空间异质性和集聚性进行分析,并利用趋势面分析和空间反距离权重插值法对住宅价格的空间分布格局进行研究。结果表明:兰州市住宅价格总体上呈显著的空间正自相关性,少数地区存在差异性;住宅价格发展不平衡,价格"东高西低";住宅价格由各区行政中心向四周逐级递减,呈多极核分布特征;价格等值线"东密西疏",住宅价格变化幅度空间差异较大。分析发现,区位条件、交通条件及居住环境是影响兰州市商品住宅价格的主要因素。     

A Generalized Markov Chain Approach for Conditional Simulation of Categorical Variables from Grid Samples

Complex categorical variables are usually classified into many classes with interclass dependencies, which conventional geostatistical methods have difficulties to incorporate. A two‐dimensional Markov chain approach has emerged recently for conditional simulation of categorical variables on line data, with the advantage of incorporating interclass dependencies. This paper extends the approach into a generalized method so that conditional simulation can be performed on grid point samples. Distant data interaction is accounted for through the transiogram – a transition probability‐based spatial measure. Experimental transiograms are estimated from samples and further fitted by mathematical models, which provide transition probabilities with continuous lags for Markov chain simulation. Simulated results conducted on two datasets of soil types show that when sufficient sample data are conditioned complex patterns of soil types can be captured and simulated realizations can reproduce transiograms with reasonable fluctuations; when data are sparse, a general pattern of major soil types still can be captured, with minor types being relatively underestimated. Therefore, at this stage the method is more suitable for cases where relatively dense samples are available. The computer algorithm can potentially deal with irregular point data with further development.     

城市房价空间分布及其影响因素分析

针对城市房价的空间分布规律及其影响因素的研究,该文提出了以南昌市青山湖区房价为研究对象,基于相关理论,搜集整理了2015年07月到10月南昌市青山湖区155个楼盘的均价,利用市场比较法把房价修正到2015年10月份节点上,估算出了155个楼盘点的价格,以GIS技术为研究平台,运用普通克里格插值方法,得到了青山湖区房价的等值线图,根据等值线图得到其空间分布情况,从可达性视角出发,采用结构方程模型构建了青山湖区房价影响因素分析框架,运用SPSS分析出各自变量和因变量之间的关系,即定量分析出了各影响因素对房价格产生的影响程度。     

西安市住宅价格空间结构和分异规律分析

利用ESDA方法对西安市城区的291个普通住宅项目均价数据进行研究,通过计算Moran指数和半变异函数分析了其空间自相关性和变异性,并进行了趋势分析。应用Kriging空间插值方法对西安市普通住宅价格空间分布进行了模拟。研究结果表明:西安市房价存在显著的空间自相关性,大部分住宅价格呈空间集聚格局,少部分因存在空间异质性而呈离散分布;房价变异函数表现出各向异性,不同方向有不同结构特征,空间自相关尺度为14.2km;西安市房价空间分异规律明显,房价分布格局受城市功能区划和交通影响较大。     

南昌市二手房价格影响因子的空间异质性

以安居客网站爬取的2018年10月894个南昌市住宅小区二手房价格为研究对象,利用地理加权回归模型探讨了建筑特征、邻里特征、区位特征等方面各影响因子对住宅价格的作用差异.研究结果表明:1)地理加权回归(GWR)模型的拟合结果优于OLS模型,将回归系数结果空间可视化发现南昌市二手房价格影响因子具有空间异质性.2)不同因子...     

Non-stationary Approaches for Mapping Terrain and Assessing Prediction Uncertainty

It is well known that terrain may vary markedly over small areas and that statistics used to characterise spatial variation in terrain may be valid only over small areas. In geostatistical terminology, a non-stationary approach may be considered more appropriate than a stationary approach. In many applications, local variation is not accounted for sufficiently. This paper assesses potential benefits in using non-stationary geostatistical approaches for interpolation and for the assessment of uncertainty in predictions with implications for sampling design. Two main non-stationary approaches are employed in this paper dealing with (1) change in the mean and (2) change in the variogram across the region of interest. The relevant approaches are (1) kriging with a trend model (KT) using the variogram of residuals from local drift and (2) locally-adaptive variogram KT, both applied to a sampled photogrammetrically derived digital terrain model (DTM). The fractal dimension estimated locally from the double-log variogram is also mapped to illustrate how spatial variation changes across the data set. It is demonstrated that estimation of the variogram of residuals from local drift is worthwhile in this case for the characterisation of spatial variation. In addition, KT is shown to be useful for the assessment of uncertainty in predictions. This is shown to be true even when the sample grid is dense as is usually the case for remotely-sensed data. In addition, both ordinary kriging (OK) and KT are shown to provide more accurate predictions than inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, used for comparative purposes.     

The hierarchical tessellation model and its use in spatial analysis

The hierarchid tessellation model belongs to a class of spatial data models based on the recursive decomposition of space. The quadtree is one such tessellation and is characterized by square cells and a 1:4 decomposition ratio. To relax these constraints in the tessellation, a generalized hierarchical tessellation data model, called Adaptive Recursive Tessellations (ART), has been proposed. ART increases flexibility in the tessellation by the use of rectangular cells and variable decomposition ratios. In ART, users can specify cell sizes which are intuitively meaningful to their applications, or which can reflect the scales of data. ART is implemented in a data structure called Adaptive Recursive Run-Encoding (ARRE), which is a variant of two-dimensional run-encoding whose running path can vary with the different tessellation structures incorporated in an ART model. Given the recognition of the benefits of implementing statistical spatial analysis in GIS, the use of hierarchical tessellation models such as ART in spatial analysis is discussed. Three examples are introduced to show how ART can: (1) be applied to solve the quadrat size problem in quadrat analysis of point patterns; (2) act as the data model in the variable resolution block kriging technique for geostatistical data to reduce variation in kriging error; and (3) facilitate the evaluation of spatial autocorrelation for area data at multiple map resolutions via the construction of a connectivity matrix for calculating spatial autocorrelation indices based on ARRE.     

Modeling spatial dependence in high spatial resolution hyperspectral data sets

 As either the spatial resolution or the spatial scale for a geographic landscape increases, both latent spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity also will tend to increase. In addition, the amount of georeferenced data that results becomes massively large. These features of high spatial resolution hyperspectral data present several impediments to conducting a spatial statistical analysis of such data. Foremost is the requirement of popular spatial autoregressive models to compute eigenvalues for a row-standardized geographic weights matrix that depicts the geographic configuration of an image's pixels. A second drawback arises from a need to account for increased spatial heterogeneity. And a third concern stems from the usefulness of marrying geostatistical and spatial autoregressive models in order to employ their combined power in a spatial analysis. Research reported in this paper addresses all three of these topics, proposing successful ways to prevent them from hindering a spatial statistical analysis. For illustrative purposes, the proposed techniques are employed in a spatial analysis of a high spatial resolution hyperspectral image collected during research on riparian habitats in the Yellowstone ecosystem. Received: 25 February 2001 / Accepted: 2 August 2001