2015年尼泊尔M_S8.1地震的地壳重力均衡背景与地表形变响应特征

对2015年尼泊尔MS8.1地震的地壳均衡背景及其引起的地表形变特征进行了研究,结果表明:(1)尼泊尔MS8.1地震震中以南的印度板块岩石圈有效弹性厚度大约为9km,加载主要来自地幔;地震以北的拉萨地块岩石圈有效弹性厚度大约为2km,加载主要来自地表.(2)尼泊尔MS8.1地震震中以南地区的地壳均衡异常大约为-100mGal(10-5 m·s-2),但其北部的地壳均衡异常则为300~400mGal,尼泊尔MS8.1地震发生在地壳均衡负异常向正异常过渡的高梯度带上.(3)尼泊尔MS8.1地震使震中周围地区的地壳整体向南运动,最大水平位移超过1.5m,分布在震中东南.震中以北的同震垂向位移总体为负值,最大下降幅度超过0.5m,同震重力变化总体为正值,最大超过60μGal(10-8 m·s-2);震中以南的垂向位移总体为正值,最大升幅超过0.7m,同震重力变化总体为负值,最大降幅超过-120μGal.(4)尼泊尔MS8.1地震使"世界屋脊"喜马拉雅山脉产生沉降,最大同震降幅超过120mm,震后松弛效应将使"世界屋脊"持续缓慢下降.该强震使世界最高峰珠穆朗玛峰降低了2~3mm,有可能被GPS、InSAR等现代大地测量工具检测到.     

2015年尼泊尔强震序列对中国大陆的应力影响

基于2015年尼泊尔地震序列的破裂模型及均匀弹性半空间模型,计算了该地震序列传递到中国西藏境内发生在定日县地震和聂拉木县地震的应力.2015年尼泊尔地震序列导致定日县地震和聂拉木地震节面和滑动方向的库仑应力增加(2~3)×103 Pa和(2.4~3.1)×105 Pa,表明这两个地震受到尼泊尔地震序列的触发.其次,我们计算了2015年尼泊尔地震序列在中国大陆及其附近主要活动断层上产生的库仑应力变化.喜马拉雅主山前逆冲断裂和青藏高原内部的拉张正断层上的库仑应力有较大的增加,而青藏高原的走滑断裂,如阿尔金断裂、东昆仑断裂、玉树玛曲断裂、班公错断裂西部、嘉黎断裂的库仑应力有较大的降低.天山南北两侧的断裂库仑应力降低.而华北及东北、华南地区的库仑应力变化几乎可以忽略不计.最后,计算了该地震序列造成的水平应力变化.水平面应力在2015年尼泊尔地震序列北向(青藏高原大部和新疆区域)增加(拉张),而在地震序列东侧的西藏南部和川滇地区南部降低(压缩),在华北和东北仅有少许增加,在华南地区有少许降低.在中国西部,主压应力表现为以2015年地震序列为圆心的向外辐射状,而主张应力方向与同心圆切线方向大体一致.水平主压应力方向在东北地区为北东向,在华北地区为北东东向,在华南地区为南东东向.这种模式与现今构造应力场方向相似,表现了2015尼泊尔地震序列所代表的印度板块和欧亚板块的碰撞是中国大陆构造变形的主要动力来源.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal

The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.     

Damage characteristics and seismic capacity of buildings during Nepal M_s 8.1 earthquake

The extensive damage to buildings caused by the Nepal M_s 8.1 earthquake has attracted much attention by the international community.Afterthe preliminary scientific investigations on the different affected areas inNepal,the construction and damage characteristics of five different types of buildings commonly existing in Nepal were discussed and the reasons of their disaster performance were analyzed.Types of buildings investigated include reinforced concrete(RC) frame structures,rubble structures,brick-wood structures,raw soil structures,and brick-wood structures of historic buildings.In addition,the weak links of the seismic design were pointed out,which was very important for the post-earthquake reconstruction and recovery,and gave a preliminary explanations for the damage experienced.     

基于库仑应力变化分析2015年尼泊尔MS8.1地震对中国大陆的影响

本文采用分层黏弹性介质模型, 模拟了2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_S8.1地震产生的同震和震后地表位移场, 计算了尼泊尔大地震引起的青藏高原及其周缘主要断裂上的同震和震后库仑应力变化。 地表位移场结果显示, 此次尼泊尔8.1级地震对中国大陆的影响区域主要是拉萨地块和羌塘地块, 对拉萨块体的影响主要表现为水平向南朝喜马拉雅构造带的汇聚作用, 垂直同震位移以下降为主, 震后以上升为主。 静态库仑破裂应力变化的计算结果显示, 尼泊尔大地震对青藏块体中南部的拉张性断层影响最为显著, 其中, 使尼泊尔地震北部的拉张断层的库仑应力显著增加, 个别断层库仑应力增加量超过0.01MPa, 而使其两侧的拉张断层库仑应力明显降低; 对青藏块体中部的走滑断裂则以正影响为主; 另外, 对南北地震带主要以负影响为主, 但量值微小。     

Rupture imaging of the 25 April 2015 MW7.9 Nepal earthquake from back-projection of teleseismic P waves

The M_W7.9 Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 had over 8, 500 fatalities and was the most destructive earthquake in Nepal since the Bihar-Nepal earthquake in 1934. In this study, we imaged the rupture process of this Nepal event by back-projecting the teleseismic P-wave energy recorded at the three regional networks in Alaska, Australia and Europe. The back-projection images of the three subarrays revealed that the Nepal earthquake propagated along the strike in a southeast direction over a distance of ~ 160–170 km with the duration of ~ 50–55 s. The rupture process was found to be a simple, unilateral event with a near constant velocity of 3.3 km/s. The beam power was mainly distributed in the geographic region just north of Kathmandu and the peak intensity for the source time function curve occurred at about 30 s. The earthquake was destructive due to its occurrence at shallow depth (~ 12–15 km) and the fact that the capital lies in a basin of soft sediment. Additionally, the resonance effect for the longer period waves that occurred in the Kathmandu valley led to destructive aggravation, impacting mainly the taller buildings.     

Comparison of two snowmelt modelling approaches in the Dudh Koshi basin (eastern Himalayas,Nepal)

Abstract

The glaciers in the Nepalese Himalayas are retreating due to rising temperatures. Lack of data and information on Nepal’s cryosphere has impeded scientific studies and field investigations in the Nepalese Himalayas. Therefore, IRD France and Ev-K2 CNR Italy have conducted the PAPRIKA (CryosPheric responses to Anthropogenic PRessures in the HIndu Kush-Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources and society adaptation in Nepal) project in Nepal with the financial support of the French and Italian scientific agencies. This project aims to address the current and future evolution of the cryosphere in response to overall environmental changes in South Asia, and its consequences for water resources in Nepal. Thus, two hydrological models, the GR4J lumped precipitation–runoff model and the snowmelt runoff model (SRM), were used in the Dudh Koshi basin. The GR4J model has been successfully applied in different parts of Europe. To obtain better results in such a harsh and rugged topography, modifications needed to be made, particularly in the snow module. The runoff pattern is analysed herein both for past years and, in a sensitivity analysis, for possible future climatic conditions (i.e. precipitation and temperature) using the SRM and GR4J modelling approaches. The results reveal a significant contribution of snow- and glacier-melt to runoff, and the SRM model shows better performance in Nepalese catchments than the GR4J model.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten     

基于GRACE数据的尼泊尔MS8.1地震北向重力梯度变化

利用德克萨斯大学空间研究中心发布的GRACE RL05月重力场模型数据,采用300 km扇形滤波,得到2015年尼泊尔M_S8.1地震北向重力梯度的时空分布,之后利用最小二乘拟合方法分析尼泊尔及其邻近区域北向重力梯度的长期变化趋势及研究区内6个特征点的北向重力梯度月变化时间序列,并结合黏弹性分层位错理论对GRACE检测尼泊尔M_S8.1地震北向重力梯度同震变化的可能性进行分析. 研究结果表明:在尼泊尔M_S8.1地震发生前北向重力梯度表现出比较明显的正负异常变化,而该地震即发生在北向重力梯度正负变化的零值线附近;研究区北向重力梯度年变率在印度板块边界及其垂直方向所形成的四象限呈正负相间分布,6个特征点的北向重力梯度在2012年4月出现比较明显的跳变. 由此推断,北向重力梯度的动态变化过程反映了震前区域物质迁移和震后壳幔物质黏滞性调整等问题.      

2015年尼泊尔Mw7.8地震震源机制InSAR反演及强地面运动模拟

2015年4月25日,在尼泊尔中部发生了M_w7.8地震.本文利用ALOS-2和SENTINEL-1A宽幅数据获取了该地震大范围的同震形变场,并反演了该地震断层破裂的几何特征及运动机制,继而以此为约束资料反演地震强地面运动.InSAR结果显示本次地震造成了巨大的地表形变,LOS向最大抬升量达到1.3 m,最大下沉量达到0.7 m.震源机制反演得到的最优的滑动分布模型表明,断层的走向为291°,倾角为7.6°,倾滑主要分布在深度为12~18 km范围,主倾滑分布范围在长度上达到了140 km,该范围内的平均倾滑角为95°.本次地震最大倾滑量达到5.3 m,位于深度15 km处.累计释放地震矩达 6.5×10²⁰N·m,约合矩震级M_w7.8.该地震发生在印度与欧亚板块俯冲逆冲界面之间,发震构造推断为主喜马拉雅逆冲断裂,属于典型的喜马拉雅型——低角度逆断层型强震.以该滑动分布模型参数为基础利用随机振动的有限断层模型进行尼泊尔地震的强地面运动模拟,结果显示最大地震烈度为Ⅸ度,烈度分布的范围及烈度等级与USGS模型结果对比具有很高的符合度.     

Stress pattern in two seismogenic sources in Nepal-Himalaya and its vicinity

The composite stereographic projection of orientations of the compression and tension axes using thirty-nine fault-plane solutions of earthquakes from two active seismogenic sources of Nepal and adjoining areas were examined and the nature of stress pattern and their influence on tectonics in the region have been studied. The seismogenic source located in Eastern Nepal region, which has been the site of 1934 Bihar-Nepal great earthquake of M 8.4, is presently experiencing N-S to NE-SW directed compressive stresses. The inferred pattern of compression axes in Western Nepal region suggests a shallow compressive stress, dipping N-S to NE-SW. Approximately similar nature of the stress regime is observed in Western and Eastern regions of Nepal, separated by nearly 700 km; it shows N-S to NNE-SSW direction of compression and underthrusting of the Indian Plate beneath the Himalaya at a shallow angle. Present study indicates that the stress is being released along the strikes of some of the transverse faults present in the region since the compressive stress exerted by the northward movement of the Indian Plate is approximately perpendicular to the Himalayan collision belt. Unilateral stress pattern generated by the northward movement of the Indian Plate in the central part of the Himalaya reveals that the present day collision occurs roughly perpendicular to the local strike of the Himalaya.     

2015年尼泊尔MS8.1地震震源区S波三维速度结构与强震发生机理研究

利用2001-2003年期间在2015年4月12日尼泊尔M_S8.1级强震震源区流动地震观测记录到的连续波形数据,提取了5~25 s周期的瑞利波相速度频散曲线,并构建了尼泊尔地震震源区二维瑞利波相速度分布图像.以0.5°×0.5°为网格大小将研究区网格化,采用NA算法反演得到尼泊尔地震震源地区三维S波速度结构.结果显示,在上地壳,以主前锋逆冲断裂带（MFT）为界,其以北地区为高波速异常,而其以南为明显低波速异常;在中地壳,以藏南拆离系（STDS）为界,南北两侧速度结构也存在明显差别,以南地区为明显高波速异常,而以北地区为明显低波速异常.这些结构特征说明,印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞挤压作用形成地幔热物质上涌并造成地壳物质部分熔融,并由此形成了东西向拉张的南北向裂谷.2015年尼泊尔M_S8.1级主震和最大余震均发生于高低波速异常过渡区且偏向高波速异常区,暗示了这样的波速异常区易于积累能量孕育强震.主震和最大余震的南侧均存在明显的低波速异常,与主喜马拉雅滑脱断裂带（MHT）相对应,可能代表部分熔融或深部流体作用于主边界断裂带（MBT）附近的MHT断裂带,降低断层面上的有效正应力,从而触发尼泊尔强震及最大余震的发生.主震与最大余震之间的余震分布于高低波速异常变化较为明显的地区,说明研究区内地震的发生受震源区附近的速度结构控制.     

Observational fragility functions for residential stone masonry buildings in Nepal

This paper outlines the seismic vulnerability of rural stone masonry buildings affected by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence. Summary of field observation is presented first and empirical fragility curves are developed from the detailed damage assessment data from 603 villages in central, eastern and western Nepal. Fragility curves are developed on the basis of 665,515 building damage cases collected during the post-earthquake detailed damage assessment campaign conducted by Government of Nepal. Two sets of fragility functions are derived using peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.3 s as the intensity measures. The sum of the results highlights that stone masonry buildings in Nepal are highly vulnerable even in the case of low to moderate ground shaking. The results further indicate that in the case of strong to major earthquakes, most of the stone masonry buildings in Nepal would sustain severe damage or collapse.     

2015年尼泊尔M_W7.9地震对青藏高原活动断裂同震、震后应力影响

2015年尼泊尔MW7.9地震重烈度区从震中向东延伸,致灾范围包括尼泊尔、印度北部、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和中国藏南地区,其应力调整对邻区和周边活动断裂可能产生重要影响.本文基于地震应力触发理论,采用岩石圈地壳分层黏弹性位错模型,计算了尼泊尔MW7.9地震引起的周边断裂,特别是青藏高原活动断裂的同震和震后库仑应力变化.结果显示,尼泊尔地震同震效应引起大部分震区库仑应力升高,余震主要分布在最大同震滑动等值线外部库仑应力升高区域;少量余震靠近最大滑动量区域,可能该区域积累的地震能量在主震期间没有完全释放.尼泊尔地震同震库仑应力对青藏高原,特别是中尼边境区域活动断裂有一定影响.亚东—谷露地堑南段、北喜马拉雅断裂西段、当惹雍错—定日断裂和甲岗—定结断裂同震库仑应力升高,其中当惹雍错—定日断裂南端,北喜马拉雅断裂西段同震库仑应力变化峰值超过0.01 MPa;帕龙错断裂、班公错断裂、改则—洞措断裂库仑应力降低,其地震发生概率有所降低.震后应力影响方面,未来40年内黏弹性松弛作用导致北喜马拉雅断裂、改则—洞措断裂和喀喇昆仑断裂整体应力卸载;藏南一系列正断层震后应力持续上升,其中帕龙错断裂南段受到震后黏弹性库仑应力影响,由应力阴影区逐渐转化为应力增强区,当惹雍错—定日断裂南段应力进一步加强,震后40年其南端应力变化峰值达到0.1345 MPa,亚东—谷露断裂南段应力亦持续增强.藏南正断层的地震活动性值得进一步关注.     

Frequency-dependent rupture process,stress change,and seismogenic mechanism of the 25 April 2015 Nepal Gorkha <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.8 earthquake

On 25 April 2015, an M _w 7.8 earthquake occurred on the Main Himalaya Thrust fault with a dip angle of ~ 7° about 77 km northwest of Kathmandu, Nepal. This Nepal Gorkha event is the largest one on the Himalayan thrust belt since 1950. Here we use the compressive sensing method in the frequency domain to track the seismic radiation and rupture process of this event using teleseismic P waves recorded by array stations in North America. We also compute the distribution of static shear stress changes on the fault plane from a coseismic slip model. Our results indicate a dominant east-southeastward unilateral rupture process from the epicenter with an average rupture speed of ~3 km s^?1. Coseismic radiation of this earthquake shows clear frequency-dependent features. The lower frequency (0.05–0.3 Hz) radiation mainly originates from large coseismic slip regions with negative coseismic shear stress changes. In comparison, higher frequency (0.3–0.6 Hz) radiation appears to be from the down-dip part around the margin of large slip areas, which has been loaded and presents positive coseismic shear stress changes. We propose an asperity model to interpret this Nepal earthquake sequence and compare the frequency-dependent coseismic radiation with that in subduction zones. Such frequency-dependent radiation indicates the depth-varying frictional properties on the plate interface of the Nepal section in the main Himalaya thrust system, similar to previous findings in oceanic subduction zones. Our findings provide further evidence of the spatial correlation between changes of static stress status on the fault plane and the observed frequency-dependent coseismic radiation during large earthquakes. Our results show that the frequency-dependent coseismic radiation is not only found for megathrust earthquakes in the oceanic subduction environment, but also holds true for thrust events in the continental collision zone.     

基于InSAR和GPS观测数据的尼泊尔地震发震断层特征参数联合反演研究

利用日本ALOS-2和欧空局Sentinel-1A卫星获得的尼泊尔地震同震形变场,结合GPS同震位移数据,联合反演了断层滑动分布特征和空间展布.结果表明:尼泊尔地震的同震形变场主要集中在150km×100km的范围内,且分为南北两个相邻的形变中心,南形变中心的视线向抬升量约为1.2m,北形变中心的视线向沉降量约为0.8m,均位于发震断层上盘.位于形变抬升区的KKN4和NAST两个GPS站,抬升量和南向运动量均达到了m级,而远离震区的其他GPS台水平和垂直观测量均在1cm以内.联合反演得到的断层位错分布主要集中在沿走向150km,沿倾向70km的范围内,最大滑动量为5.59m,平均滑动量为0.94m.断层面倾角在浅部约为7°,随着深度增加,倾角逐渐变大,到垂直深度20km时倾角接近12°;5月12日MW7.2级余震位于主震破裂区的"凹"型滑动缺损区域;主震破裂区的上边界与MBT空间位置十分吻合,主震破裂区主要集中的MBT以北50~60km处,垂直深度为8~9km,倾角为9°,继续向北时主震破裂面以10°~12°的倾角向深延伸,在18~20km可能与MHT交汇.因此,初步判定MBT为此次地震的发震断层.     

2015年尼泊尔M_S8.1强震对中国大陆静态应力触发影响的初探

本研究基于地震危险性分析中地震重复原则和构造外推原则,以及一段时期内活动断裂上发生地震机制是相似或相近的假设,利用中国已发生的震级为MS5.0以上的地震震源机制解,将其中的一个节面视为实际地质断层参数和静态应力触发计算中的接收断层面,计算了2015年4月25日尼泊尔MS8.1地震对中国大陆地区的静态应力触发情况.研究结果表明:2015年4月25日尼泊尔MS8.1地震,触发了其后续的2次强余震的发生;本次地震对中国大陆产生的应力变化量值很小,其产生的应力加载主要集中在其邻近的西藏和新疆地区的部分断层上,而其余地区的断层则主要受到了应力卸载作用.     

CONSTRAINING THE FOCAL MECHANISM OF THE 2015 NEPAL EARTHQUAKE WITH OBSERVATIONS OF THE CONTINUOUS GRAVITY STATIONS

On 25 April 2015, a magnitude M_S8.1 interplate thrust earthquake ruptured a densely instrumented region of Nepal. After earthquake, the focal mechanism solutions of Nepal earthquake were provided by well-respected international earthquake research institutions based on different data and methods, which were different. We compared free oscillations observed by 18 spring gravimeters of continuous gravity stations with synthetic normal modes corresponding to 3 different focal mechanisms for the Nepal earthquake, and the focal mechanisms solutions of Nepal earthquake were analyzed and constrained by spherical normal modes in a 2 to 5mHz frequency band. Based on the optimal focal mechanism, the accurate magnitude was searched. The results show that the focal mechanism of Nepal earthquake can be estimated by spherical modes in the 2 to 5mHz frequency band. The synthetic modes corresponding to the focal mechanism determined by the GCMT Moment Tensor Solution showed agreement to the observed modes, the average of misfit factors F was 0.03, and the average of scaling factors was 1.04, which was closest to 1, suggesting that earthquake magnitudes predicted in this way can reflect the total energy released by the earthquake. Based on the focal mechanism solutions provided by GCMT, keeping the strike, dip, slip, depth constant, adjusting the scalar moment, the real scalar moment was searched. When the average of scaling factors was 1, the average of misfit factors F was only 0.03. After calculation, the scalar moment of Nepal earthquake was 8.09×10²⁰ Nm, and the corresponding magnitude was M_W7.91.     

Seismic Damage to Owner-Built RC Frames in Charikot during the 2015 Nepal Earthquake Sequence

The damage to the masonry-infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings in Charikot, the capital city of Dolakha district in Nepal, during the 2015 April-to-May Nepal earthquake sequence is reported. Most of these buildings were built by the owners with little governmental inspections regarding their structural design or constructional quality. Although they generally performed better than other structural systems such as stone-masonry houses, the RC frames sustained extensive damage ranging from cracking of infill to complete collapse. In particular, eight of the 72 inspected RC frames alongside an uphill street collapsed in different ways. In addition to the un-engineered nature of these RC frames, their collapse could also be attributed to multiple technical reasons including the effect of terrain, the pounding between adjacent buildings and the accumulative damage in the earthquake sequence.     

2015年尼泊尔M_w7.9地震破裂过程:快速反演与初步联合反演

本文介绍了2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.9(MS8.1)地震发生后的破裂过程快速反演工作,以及后续开展的地震波与少量GPS资料的初步联合反演工作.两项工作得到的反演结果尽管在最大滑动量估计方面存在一些差别,但都一致地显示此次地震是发生在低倾角俯冲断裂上的一次单侧破裂事件,破裂主要朝东南方向传播;断层滑动主要发生在震中至加德满都一带.在加德满都附近区域,其下方破裂与朝东南传播的地震波的多普勒聚焦效应可能造成较强的震感和较大的破坏.对比历史大地震发现,2015年尼泊尔Mw7.9地震的浅部破裂紧邻1934年Mw8.2地震的地表破裂,余震分布与1833年M7.6地震的宏观震中基本重合,其破裂填补了前两次地震破裂以西100km左右的空区,表明此次地震是1934年Mw8.2地震与1833年M7.6地震向西继续延伸的结果.     

Partial drought conditions in Nepal / Les conditions de sécheresse partielle en Nepal

Abstract

In a mountainous country like Nepal, where precipitation from the monsoon (July) and the westerlies (January) occurs yearly, it is surprising to find partial drought conditions in space and time. This paper deals with the partial drought conditions and also the measures to combat them.