Development of an Information and Database System for the IERS: Status and outlook

The focus of this paper is to present the concepts for a new dynamic, i.e. database-driven information system for the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). Its goal is to coordinate the data and information flow between the participating institutions. Therefore, all relevant data and products of the IERS should be archived to guarantee their long-term availability. At the same time the consistency and timeliness of the contents of the information system can be guaranteed by managing the information in a database. Additionally, the metadata of all products (including the IERS publications) should be modelled in a database to allow the users to search for specific data or topics with respect to space, time and content. In order to be able to link related data the heterogeneous formats of the products have to be transformed into a common format. The eXtensible Markup Language (XML) is going to be used, to perform this ambitious task. The usage of XML not only allows to link related data but also to easily exchange data and to present them in different ways like Web pages, pdf, etc. The system will be completed by several tools to manage and coordinate the tasks of the Central Bureau (CB) and by an information system with respect to IERS-related topics. The standardised database tools will also allow an easy exchange of information with and links to other databases within the IGGOS project to realize a powerful instrument to serve the Earth observing system.     

A note on the deflection of a baroclinic current by a continental shelf

The deflection, at a step-shelf fronted coast, of a constant potential vorticity current in a reduced-gravity, inviscid model ocean is studied theoretically. The step shelf, with a depth smaller than the reservoir depth, forces the uplifting of the approaching current and causes water column foreshortening, leading to relative vorticity generation that enhances current deflection to the right (facing the coast). As a consequence, in comparison to the case of a vertical wall coast, the proportion of the transport to the right is increased. For normal incidence for a shelf-depth/reservoir-depth ratio of 0.3 and shelf width to deformation radius ratio of 1.5, more than 90% of the approaching current transport goes to the right and less than 10% to the left. In addition, the (barotropic) dynamic pressure at the coast is low to the right and high to the left (with the highest pressure at the stagnation point). In the vertical wall case, the wall pressures on the flank are equal. For oblique incidence from the left, the deflection to the left is drastically reduced. In fact, there is practically no steady-state flow diverted to the left (less than 2%) when the approach angle is greater than 60° to the left of normal. In the vertical wall case, the same angle would have to be 90° for the flow to the left to vanish, namely only when the approach current is parallel to the coast to the right.     

Review of vibroseis data acquisition and processing for better amplitudes: adjusting the sweep and deconvolving for the time-derivative of the true groundforce

The goal of vibroseis data acquisition and processing is to produce seismic reflection data with a known spatially-invariant wavelet, preferably zero phase, such that any variations in the data can be attributed to variations in geology. In current practice the vibrator control system is designed to make the estimated groundforce equal to the sweep and the resulting particle velocity data are cross-correlated with the sweep. Since the downgoing far-field particle velocity signal is proportional to the time-derivative of the groundforce, it makes more sense to cross-correlate with the time-derivative of the sweep. It also follows that the ideal amplitude spectrum of the groundforce should be inversely proportional to frequency. Because of non-linearities in the vibrator, bending of the baseplate and variable coupling of the baseplate to the ground, the true groundforce is not equal to the pre-determined sweep and varies not only from vibrator point to vibrator point but also from sweep to sweep at each vibrator point. To achieve the goal of a spatially-invariant wavelet, these variations should be removed by signature deconvolution, converting the wavelet to a much shorter zero-phase wavelet but with the same bandwidth and signal-to-noise ratio as the original data. This can be done only if the true groundforce is known. The principle may be applied to an array of vibrators by employing pulse coding techniques and separating responses to individual vibrators in the frequency domain. Various approaches to improve the estimate of the true groundforce have been proposed or are under development; current methods are at best approximate.     

Analysis of change of red tide species in Yodo River estuary by the numerical ecosystem model

Occurrence number of red tides in Osaka Bay in Japan is more than 20 cases every year. Diatom red tide was dominant in Osaka Bay, but the non-diatom red tide was dominant in early 1990s. Therefore, the material cycling in Yodo River estuary in Osaka Bay during August from 1991 to 2000 was analyzed by using the numerical ecosystem model and field observation data to clarify the reasons of change in red tide species. Year-to-year variation in calculated concentration ratio of diatom to non-diatom corresponds to the variation in observed ratio of red tide days of diatom to non-diatom. Limiting nutrient of primary production is phosphate over the period. Diatom dominated from 1991 to 1993, but it was difficult for non-diatom to grow due to the limitation by physical condition. Non-diatom was able to grow because of good physical and nutrient conditions from 1994 to 1996. And diatom dominated again under the good physical condition, and phosphorus supply was not enough for non-diatom to grow from 1998 to 2000. Phosphate concentration in the lower layer of Yodo River estuary was important to the variation in red tide species in the upper layer of Yodo River estuary.     

Remediation of Heterogeneous Aquifers Subject to Uncertainty

Optimal cost pump-and-treat ground water remediation designs for containment of a contaminated aquifer are often developed using deterministic ground water models to predict ground water flow. Uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity fields used in these models results in remediation designs that are unreliable. The degree to which uncertainty contributes to the reliability of remediation designs as measured by the characterization of the uncertainty is shown to differ depending upon the geologic environments of the models. This conclusion is drawn from the optimal design costs for multiple deterministic models generated to represent the uncertainty of four distinct models with different geologic environments. A multi scenario approach that includes uncertainty into the remediation design called the deterministic method for optimization subject to uncertainty (DMOU) is applied to these distinct models. It is found that the DMOU is a method for determining a remediation design subject to uncertainty that requires minimal postprocessing efforts. Preprocessing, however, is required for the application of the DMOU to unique problems. In the ground water remediation design problems, the orientation of geologic facies with respect to the orientation of flow patterns, pumping well locations, and constraint locations are shown to affect the preprocessing, the solutions to the DMOU problems, and the computational efficiency of the DMOU approach. The results of the DMOU are compared to the results of a statistical analysis of the effects of the uncertainty on remediation designs. This comparison validates the efficacy of the DMOU and illustrates the computational advantages to using the DMOU over statistical measures.     

Elastic models of seismic failure in the Valley of Mexico

Restricted parts of the Valley of Mexico have been plagued by swarms of small earthquakes during recent years. The cause of these events is puzzling, but they may relate to massive artificial changes in the hydrology of the lake-bed which underlies most of Mexico City. If the valley responds elastically, plane strain finite element calculations can be used to relate geologic and seismic structure to observed seismicity and overall stability of the valley. These calculations show that unstable zones and areas of local seismicity coincide if the triggering mechanism of the seismicity is related to variations of pore pressure and water load.In order to make such a connection it is necessary to ascribe the generating mechanism of the seismicity to the density and elastic modulus anomalies associated with the valley structure, and to suggest that the phenomenon that triggers this seismicity is related to changes in water content of the near surface formations.     

A Least-Squares Standard Deviation Method to Interpret Gravity Data due to Finite Vertical Cylinders and Sheets

We have developed a least-squares approach to determine simultaneously the depth to both the top and base of a buried finite vertical cylinder (vertical line element approximation) and a 2-D vertical thin sheet from moving average residual anomaly profiles obtained from gravity data using filters of successive window lengths. The method involves using a relationship between the depth to the top, and base of the source and a combination of windowed observations. The method is based on computing the standard deviation of the depths to the top, determined from all moving average residual anomalies for each value of the depth to the base. The standard deviation may generally be considered a criterion for determining the correct depth to the top and base of the buried structure. When the correct depth to the base value is used, the standard deviation of the depths to the top is less than the standard deviation using incorrect values of the depth to the base. This method can be applied to residuals as well as to the observed gravity data. The method is applied to synthetic examples with and without random errors and tested on two field examples from the USA and Canada.     

Analysis of thick, non-planar boundaries using the discontinuity analyser

The advent of missions comprised of phased arrays of spacecraft, with separation distances ranging down to at least mesoscales, provides the scientific community with an opportunity to accurately analyse the spatial and temporal dependencies of structures in space plasmas. Exploitation of the multi-point data sets, giving vastly more information than in previous missions, thereby allows unique study of their small-scale physics. It remains an outstanding problem, however, to understand in what way comparative information across spacecraft is best built into any analysis of the combined data. Different investigations appear to demand different methods of data co-ordination. Of the various multi-spacecraft data analysis techniques developed to affect this exploitation, the discontinuity analyser has been designed to investigate the macroscopic properties (topology and motion) of boundaries, revealed by multi-spacecraft magnetometer data, where the possibility of at least mesoscale structure is considered. It has been found that the analysis of planar structures is more straightforward than the analysis of non-planar boundaries, where the effects of topology and motion become interwoven in the data, and we argue here that it becomes necessary to customise the analysis for non-planar events to the type of structure at hand. One issue central to the discontinuity analyser, for instance, is the calculation of normal vectors to the structure. In the case of planar and ‘thin’ non-planar structures, the method of normal determination is well-defined, although subject to uncertainties arising from unwanted signatures. In the case of ‘thick’, non-planar structures, however, the method of determination becomes particularly sensitive to the type of physical sampling that is present. It is the purpose of this article to firstly review the discontinuity analyser technique and secondly, to discuss the analysis of the normals to thick non-planar structures detected in magnetometer data.     

提高台站短水准则量成果精度的几项措施

结合清原地震台台站水准1985年前后观测成果精度的变化，总结了提高台站短水准观测成果精度的几点主要成功措施。它们是：选择最佳视线长度；拓宽线路、增高视线、减弱折光影响；改造仪器站条件；固定观测时间和人员；确定好观测光段。     

我国科学数据共享现状的调查

本文是科学数据共享政策法规体系研究系列文章的收笔之作.撰写本文的目的,就是为说明科学数据共享政策法规体系的研究是建立在大量的基础调研之上.调查研究是谋事之基、成事之道.从实践中寻求解决现实问题的方法,才能制定出切实可行的政策、法规,调查研究是制定政策、法规的客观依据.为使制订政策、 规章制度适应社会经济发展和变化的新情况,就深入开展调查研究,认真听取各方面的意见,深入研究相应的管理规律和运行机制.本文详述了调查过程、调查方法,以佐证政策法规研究不能脱离实际.     

Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity.It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate.The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.     

A Basic Water Quality Model for the River Neckar: Part 2 – model‐based analysis of the oxygen budget and scenarios

In this paper the Basic Water Quality Model (BWQM) for the central part of River Neckar is used to analyse the oxygen budget and to assess the potentials of various measures to prevent or mitigate critical dissolved oxygen (DO) declines. It is shown that the oxygen budget is mainly governed by phytoplankton dynamics. The excessive growth of algae and the sudden break down of the resulting algal blooms may cause episodic DO depressions. Therefore, to stabilise the oxygen budget in a sustainable way, eutrophication has to be controlled within the central part of River Neckar and the upstream regions. The only feasible way to reach this goal appears to be a further drastic reduction of phosphorus emissions. In addition, it is indispensable to hold the very high standards of biochemical oxygen demand and ammonium retention at the wastewater treatment plants. A worse performance of the treatment plants would dramatically aggravate critical DO declines which may be caused by algae dynamics. As long as the oxygen budget is not completely stabilised, weir and turbine aeration can be used to mitigate DO depressions. It could be shown that the potentials of these measures suffice to keep DO at a tolerable level. However, due to the long travel times in River Neckar, it is important to start aeration up to several days before the DO minimum is reached.     

地震空区的定量判据

在中国，孕震空间已经比较广泛地应用于地震预报的实践，并多次取得实际预测强震的效果。但经过系统震例研究发现，利用孕震空间预报地震的虚报漏报率比较高。本文运用解决临界相变问题的重正化群方法所求出的孕震空间区可能发生失稳破裂，导致强震发生的判据对孕震空间的危险性作出进一步鉴别，并用突变论方法求解尖拐空变方程，预测孕震空区未来发生强震的时间和震级，并进一步确定孕震空区的危险性。对２６个中国大陆强有的孕震空     

River terrace sand and gravel deposit reserve estimation using three-dimensional electrical resistivity tomography for bedrock surface detection

We describe the application of 3D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to the characterisation and reserve estimation of an economic fluvial sand and gravel deposit. Due to the smoothness constraints used to regularise the inversion, it can be difficult to accurately determine the geometry of sharp interfaces. We have therefore considered two approaches to interface detection that we have applied to the 3D ERT results in an attempt to provide an accurate and objective assessment of the bedrock surface elevation. The first is a gradient-based approach, in which the steepest gradient of the vertical resistivity profile is assumed to correspond to the elevation of the mineral/bedrock interface. The second method uses an intrusive sample point to identify the interface resistivity at a location within the model, from which an iso-resistivity surface is identified that is assumed to define the interface. Validation of these methods has been achieved through direct comparison with observed bedrock surface elevations that were measured using real-time-kinematic GPS subsequent to the 3D ERT survey when quarrying exposed the bedrock surface. The gradient-based edge detector severely underestimated the depth to bedrock in this case, whereas the interface resistivity method produced bedrock surface elevations that were in close agreement with the GPS-derived surface. The failure of the gradient-based method is attributed to insufficient model sensitivity in the region of the bedrock surface, whereas the success of the interface resistivity method is a consequence of the homogeneity of the mineral and bedrock, resulting in a consistent interface resistivity. These results highlight the need for some intrusive data for model validation and for edge detection approaches to be chosen on the basis of local geological conditions.     

一种适用于大地震临震预测的地声监测系统

介绍了震前地声的历史记载以及震前地声的产生机制和特征．还有如何利用震前地声观测结果对地震发震的三要素进行预测。并针对震前地声监测所存在的问题、困难和发展趋势,提出了一种适用于大地震临震预测的地声监测系统,该系统可详尽、完整地记录震前地声的强度、频度、频谱,并可通过在地震易发区域的大规模密集布点,组成这一区域的震前地声监测网络,以监测大地震孕育过程,以及对大地震的三要素进行预测预报。     

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.     

Prediction of the location of future rupture surfaces of a slowly moving loess landslide by electrical resistivity tomography

A slowly moving loess landslide along the River Danube in South Hungary was studied using electrical resistivity tomography. Our aim was to determine the fracture system of the study site. Due to the homogeneous composition of the loess, it seems to be the only possibility to get information about the landslide and its further evolution. The applicability of the electrical resistivity tomography technique for such a supposedly dense fracture system was studied by numerical modelling, and the results have been verified in the field. The dip of the fractures could not always been observed, and they could not be explored deeply. However, it was possible to map their surface projection to get the desired information about the structure of the landslide. Fracture zones could have been especially well localized, enabling the prediction of the positions of future rupture surfaces and thus the delineation of the endangered zone. Although the area outside of the already subsided one is not endangered yet, the area which has already started to move is going to break into two. Parts of the about 5 m wide blocks at the front of the landslide may fall or slide down anytime. A large area was assumed to move as one unit. Most of our predictions have been verified by the mass movements that occurred about one and half years after the measurements. The electrical resistivity tomography method proved to be a good tool to characterize the fracture system of such a landslide area, enabling the prediction of future rupture surfaces and also delineation of the endangered area. Its use is therefore highly recommended to monitor landslides to provide early risk warnings to avoid damage to constructions or endangering human life.     

Use of a shared tuned mass damper (STMD) to reduce vibration and pounding in adjacent structures

The dynamic response of tall civil structures due to earthquakes is very important to civil engineers. Structures exposed to earthquakes experience vibrations that are detrimental to their structural components. Structural pounding is an additional problem that occurs when buildings experience earthquake excitation. This phenomena occurs when adjacent structures collide from their out‐of‐phase vibrations. Many energy dissipation devices are presently being used to reduce the system response. Tuned mass dampers (TMD) are commonly used to improve the response of structures. The stiffness and damping properties of the TMD are designed to be a function of the natural frequency of the building to which it is connected. This research involves attaching adjacent structures with a shared tuned mass damper (STMD) to reduce both the structures vibration and probability of pounding. Because the STMD is connected to both buildings, the problem of tuning the STMD stiffness and damping parameters becomes an issue. A design procedure utilizing a performance function is used to obtain the STMD parameters to result in the best overall system response. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonlinear analysis on the coupling process of electromagnetic vibrator and earth

Vibrator is an excitation equipment of the vibratory source in the seismic exploration[1―3]. In order to ap-proach the δ function, dynamite can be used to release high energy in an instantaneous explosion and form the seismic wavelet. On the other hand, a portable vi-brator sweeps a low energy signal for a long time to simulate the function of an explosion source. The re-flection signal of the portable vibrator is estimated for time-delay by digital cross correlation technology, and the disp…     

Detecting infiltration and impacts of introduced water using strontium isotopes

Water introduced to surface drainages, such as agricultural and roadway runoff, mine drainage, or coalbed natural gas (CBNG)-produced water, potentially can be of environmental concern. In order to mitigate potential environmental effects, it may be important to be able to trace water discharged to the surface as it infiltrates and interacts with near-surface aquifers. We have chosen to study water withdrawn during CBNG production for isotope tracing in the hyporheic zone because it poses a variety of economic, environmental, and policy issues in the Rocky Mountain states. Ground water quality must be protected as CBNG water is added to semiarid ecosystems. Strontium (Sr) isotopes are effective fingerprints of the aquifer from which water originates. In this study, CBNG water was found to have a higher (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratio than the local alluvial aquifer water. This measurable difference allows the strontium isotope ratio and concentration to be used as tracers of CBNG water following its discharge to the surface. The dissolution and mobilization of salts from soil are an important contributor to ground water quality degradation. In the Powder River basin of Wyoming, the soils are calcium carbonate-buffered systems. The chemical similarity of strontium to calcium allows it to substitute into calcium minerals and enabled us to use strontium isotopes to identify calcium salts mobilized from the soil. Strontium isotopes are an effective monitor of the source of ions and the volume and direction of introduced water flow in the hyporheic zone.