全球变暖对长江洪水的可能影响及其前景预测

要长江流域近150a间发生的1870、1931、1935、1954与1998年特大洪水灾害损失严重;长江洪水是我国的心腹之患.1990年以来,长江大洪水高频发生,达6次.长江洪水的发生,除湖泊蓄洪功能减弱等因素外,与全球变暖有关.20世纪90年代为近千年中全球最暖的年代,水循环加快,长江中下游夏季降水量为近120a最多的十年,高出1961-1990平均值112mm;而降雨集中和大暴雨降水事件的增加是洪水增加的主要原因.区域气候模式模拟在CO₂倍增时,长江流域温度升高2.2℃,夏季降水增加10%-20%,气溶胶的增加可能使此值降低一些.考虑气候变暖可能促进潜在蒸发增加9%-15%的假定情景,计算在降水增加10%,蒸发增加9%条件下,最大洪峰流量在大通站将会达到8.4×10⁴ m³/s左右,己超过1998年洪峰流量;汉口站7.9×10⁴ m³/s,超过有记录以来所有的洪峰流量;而在宜昌站高达6.94×10⁴ m³/s,超过自有实测记录以来的除1896年和1981年以外所有的洪峰流量.假定情景的最高值出现在降水增加20%,蒸发增加15%时,大通站流量将达到9.45×10⁴ m³/s,超过该站近百年最大值,1954年的9.26×10⁴ m³/s;宜昌站将出现7.82×10⁴ m³/s流量,超过1882年以来所有实测记录值,但比1870年据洪痕推算的10.5×10⁴ m³/s仍有逊色.未来气候若继续变暖,降水量增加将给长江洪水防御带来巨大的压力.但上述估算是粗糙的,有一定的不确定性,需在以后的研究中进一步改进.     

黄土高原水土保持生态建设耗水量宏观分析

黄土高原水土保持现状减水约10亿m³,但大规模综合治理后耗水量是多少?本文通过多种方法分析,2010年、2030年和2050年水土保持生态建设需耗水约20亿m³,40 亿m³和50亿m³.     

太湖蚌类现存量及空间分布格局

于2016年10月和2017年10月对太湖全湖8个湖区129个样点的蚌类进行调查,分析蚌类的物种组成、现存量、空间分布及历史变化.共采集到蚌类704个个体,隶属8属14种.全湖蚌类平均生物量和密度分别为4.169±9.337 g/m²和0.164±0.386 ind./m²;各湖区蚌类平均生物量和密度差异较大,东部沿岸区生物量和密度最高,分别为14.975±16.743 g/m²和0.577±0.758 ind./m²;湖心区生物量和密度最低,仅为0.727±1.622 g/m²和0.029±0.071 ind./m².扭蚌（Arconaia lanceolata）、圆顶珠蚌（Unio douglasiae）和背角无齿蚌（Anodonta woodiana woodiana）为太湖现阶段的优势种.基于蚌类平均密度的聚类分析,8个湖区分为3类.与历史数据相比,太湖蚌类资源呈明显衰退趋势,现状不容乐观,需加强对太湖蚌类的保护和资源的有效管理.     

鼎湖山常绿针阔叶混交林CO2通量估算

鼎湖山通量站是中国通量网络(ChinaFLUX)中4个森林站之一,采用开路涡度相关方法,对南亚热带常绿针阔叶混交林进行生态系统尺度的CO₂通量长期定位观测．利用2003,2004年2整年观测资料,分析该生态系统CO₂通量时间变化特征及其受环境因子的制约关系．通过坐标转换、WPL订正和质量控制后,发现本通量站存在明显的夜间泄漏问题,因此采用Michaelis- Menten模型,利用白天(PAR>1．0μmol^-1 Photons·m^-2·s^-1)湍流充分条件-F(u*>0．2 m·s^-1)的通量资料,逐月拟合净生态系统CO₂交换NEE对光合有效辐射PAR的响应,利用拟合Michaelis-Menten方程得到的生态系统呼吸Reco,建立R_eco与5 cm土壤温度的指数关系,借此反演夜间呼吸．主要结论包括:(i)逐月拟合的光能利用效率a平均为0．0027(±0．0011)mgCO₂·μmol^-1 Photons,最大光合速率A_max平均为1．102(±0．288)mgCO₂·m^-2·s^-1,a与A_max季节性变化规律均不明显,表明林内旱季没有明显的缺水和低温胁迫存在,这与南亚热带常绿混交林叶面积指数(LAI)季节性变化较小的特点是一致的．（ii）生态系统呼吸月总量平均为95.3（±21．1）gC·mm^-2month^-1，约占生态系统总初级生产力GPP的68％．NEE月总量平均为-43．2（±29．6）gC·m^-2·month^-1，大部分月份NEE为负号，表明该生态系统全年均具有较强的碳汇功能．估算得到2003，2004年NEE总量分别为-563，-441．2gC·m^-2·a^-1，占GPP的32％．     

2022年第5期封面

抚仙湖,位于云南省中部,为构造断陷湖. 面积214.7 km², 平均水深89m, 最大水深155m,蓄水量204×10⁸8 m³（水位1722.5m时）, 是我国第二深水湖泊和蓄水量最大的淡水湖.     

地震氡观测仪计量检定系统与实验分析

本文介绍了地震氡观测仪计量检定系统（氡室）的建设背景及结构组成。氡室具有氡体积活度（氡浓度）实时监测、动态补氡、氡期望值可调、稳定性好等特点。在氡室调试实验中进行了氡室的漏气率实验及4次补氡实验,计算出氡室的氡漏气率为0.0001393Bq/min,氡发生率为23.35Bq/min。根据《测氡仪检定规程》（JJG 825—2013）的技术要求进行计量效能验证,表明氡室的氡体积活度（氡浓度）为800Bq/m³、1500Bq/m³、3000Bq/m³、6000Bq/m³和15000Bq/m³时,连续8h稳定性均优于5%;为6000Bq/m³时,72h稳定性优于5%,符合国家计量技术规范对氡室计量标准的要求。     

2022年第1期封面

丹江口水库,为南水北调中线工程唯一水源地,位于陕西、湖北、河南三省交界处的汉江上游,面积 1022 km²（水位 170m 时）,库容 290×10⁸m³,多年平均入库水资源量 374×10⁸m³(摄影：胡文波).     

基于多源遥感数据的山西省交口县某尾矿库堆载过程回溯与失稳模式分析

2022年3月17日,山西省交口县某铝矿尾矿库发生溃坝事故,造成较大经济损失。为了探究尾矿库溃坝的原因,基于多时相光学卫星立体像对数据和SBAS-InSAR等遥感技术,回溯分析该尾矿库的堆载过程、库容变化和坝体形变,并采用GeoStudio软件Slope/W模块评价溃坝前边坡的稳定性。结果表明:(1)该尾矿库于2019年9月前已堆积至最大库容,2021年12月前在2^#坝后方子库堆载至96万m³,超出设计库容4.8万m³,从而降低了坝体的稳定性;(2)溃坝物源主要来自2^#坝以上库区,在2^#坝与1^#坝之间以及1^#坝到沟口区域均主要以堆积为主;(3)该尾矿库溃坝属于典型的渗流场诱发尾矿坝失稳,尾矿加载导致其坝体边坡稳定性安全系数由1.125降至0.991,是该尾矿库溃坝的直接诱发因素。     

不同培养条件下多刺裸腹溞的生殖和种群增长参数

于 1996年在实验室对多刺探腹溞(Mbina　macrocopa)种群的增长率及相关生态学参数进行了研究.结果表明,3个温度梯度(24、28和32℃)和3个面包酵母(Saccharomyces　cerevisi-ae)密度(0.25、2 5和25 x 10₆cell.mL^-1下,以28℃时内禀增长力(r_m)最高;28℃时,面包酵母的投喂密度为25×10₆cell.mL_-1时,其r_m最大.温度28℃,面包酵母密度为25×10₆cell.mL^-1时,该溞的繁殖前期最短,繁殖期和寿命均最长,并且怀卵量(每窝产仔数)最大.该溞的种群密度和瞬时增长率分别在接种后第7d和第3-4d达高峰.该搔批量培养时采收时间以第5d为宜.     

中国太湖五里湖内不同凤眼莲密度圈闭内的沉降率

The dynamic model of physical-biological engineering for purifying water quality in Lake Taihu needs the parameter of sedimentation rate (SR). Especially, it is seldom reported how SR is influenced by interactions between algae and aquatic plant. So 6 enclosures with each area of 5×5 m² were constructed in Wulihu with 2 m depth, a small hypereutrophic bay of Taihu Lake, China. Enclosures, in which the original water quality was the same as that in surrounding lake, were input Eichhomia crassipes at various original densities from 0-6 kg·m^-2 on August 9, 1996. SR had been measured separately at depths of 0.6, 1.2f 1.8 m in each enclosure during 20 days. Main results were as follows:1) SR average in enclosures (17.3g·m^-2 d^-1) was as much as about 1/14 that in the surrounding lake; 2) The deeper was it, the higher rate was it in each enclosure, generally; 3) SR cures versus original densities of Eichhomia crassipes (ODE) in enclosures had the ship of "V" at different depths; SR minimuma were observed in the enclosure with original meso-density of Eichhomia crassipes (EMESO, 4kg·m^-2), the average of SR minimuma was about 8.55 g ·m^-2 d^-1) SR in enclosures with original hypo-density (EHYPO, 0-3kg·m^-2) were mainly negative related with water temperature and light intensity;while those with original hyperdensity (EHYPR, 5-6kg·m^-2) were mainly negative related with transparency (SD) instead.These SR-distribution characteristics may be explained by interactions between dead algae and relics of Eichhomia crassipes.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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