中国近50a来度日变化的研究

采用中国1951—2006年的气象观测资料,在运用度日分析法分析全国、各省及省会城市近50 a的平均温度变化的基础上,系统分析全国的度日变化情况;研究了中国六大区省会城市热度日（Heating Degree-day,HDD）和冷度日（Cooling Degree-day,CDD）的变化情况;分析了典型城市北京、上海、广州CDD的上升趋势和上升率,并求得相关方程。结果表明,北京、上海、广州CDD的长期变化都呈上升趋势,上升率分别为11.7℃/（10 a）、10.4℃/（10 a）、25.1℃/（10 a）。     

Allocating planetary boundaries to large economies: Distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness

The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework proposes global quantitative precautionary limits for human perturbation of nine critical Earth system processes. Together they define a global safe operating space for human development. Translating the global limits to the national level increases their policy relevance. Such translation essentially divides up the global safe operating space. What is considered fair distribution is a political decision and there is no globally agreed principle that can be applied. Here, we analyse the distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness. We scale the global limits of selected PBs to resource budgets for the EU, US, China and India, using three allocation approaches from the climate change literature. Furthermore, we compare the allocated budgets to 2010 environmental footprints of the four economies, to assess their performance with respect to the selected PBs. The allocation approaches are based on (1) current shares of global environmental pressure (‘grandfathering’); (2) ‘equal per capita’ shares, and (3) ‘ability to pay’ to reduce environmental pressure. The results show that the four economies are not living within the global safe operating space. Their 2010 environmental footprints are larger than the allocated budgets for all approaches and parameterisations analysed for the PBs for climate change and biogeochemical flows, and, except for India, also for the PB for biosphere integrity. Grandfathering was found to be most favourable for the EU and US for all PBs, and ability to pay as least favourable. For climate change and biogeochemical flows, ability to pay even resulted in negative resource budgets for the two economies. In contrast, for China and India, equal per capita allocation and ability to pay were most favourable. Results were sensitive to the parameterisation. Accounting for future population growth in the equal per capita approach benefits India, with lower budgets for the EU, US and China, while accounting for future economic growth in ability to pay benefits the EU and US, with lower budgets for China and India. Our results underline the need for all four economies to act, while hinting at diverging preferences for specific allocation approaches. The methodology and results may help countries to define policy targets in line with global ambitions, such as those defined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), accounting for differences in countries’ circumstances and capacities. Further attention is required for PB-specific allocation approaches and integration of biophysical and socioeconomic considerations in the allocation.     

全球长期减排目标与碳排放权分配原则

全球长期减排目标将对世界未来的碳排放形成严重制约,减排义务的分担原则涉及各国的发展空间,事关根本利益。部分发达国家倡导人均排放趋同原则,回避发达国家的历史责任,中国等发展中国家提出人均累积排放趋同原则,强调公平性。按人均累积排放量计算,发达国家自工业革命以来的CO₂排放量已远超出其到2050年前应有的限额,其当前和今后相当长时期的高人均排放都将继续挤占发展中国家的排放空间。因此,发达国家在哥本哈根会议的中近期减排承诺中必须深度减排,以实现全球长期减排目标下的排放轨迹,并为发展中国家留有必要的发展空间。同时必须对发展中国家给予充足的资金和技术支持,作为对其过度挤占发展中国家发展空间的补偿,使发展中国家能够在可持续发展框架下,提高应对气候变化的能力。我国在对外坚持公平原则,努力争取合理的排放空间的同时,对内要加强向低碳经济转型,努力实现保护全球气候和国内可持续发展的双赢。     

Towards urban water sustainability: Analyzing management transitions in Miami,Las Vegas,and Los Angeles

As climate change challenges the sustainability of existing water supplies, many cities must transition toward more sustainable water management practices to meet demand. However, scholarly knowledge of the factors that drive such transitions is lacking, in part due to the dearth of comparative analyses in the existing transitions literature. This study seeks to identify common factors associated with transitions toward sustainability in urban water systems by comparing transitions in three cases: Miami, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. For each case, we develop a data-driven narrative that integrates case-specific contextual data with standardized, longitudinal metrics of exposures theorized to drive transition. We then compare transitions across cases, focusing on periods of accelerated change (PoACs), to decouple generic factors associated with transition from those unique to individual case contexts. From this, we develop four propositions about transitions toward sustainable urban water management. We find that concurrent exposure to water stress and heightened public attention increases the probability of a PoAC (1), while other factors commonly expected to drive transition (e.g. financial stress) are unrelated (2). Moreover, the timing of exposure alignment (3) and the relationship between exposures and transition (4) may vary according to elements of the system’s unique context, including the institutional and infrastructure design and hydro-climatic setting. These propositions, as well as the methodology used to derive them, provide a new model for future research on how cities respond to climate-driven water challenges.     

The impact of the Sustainable Development Goals on a network of 276 international organizations

Global sustainability governance is marked by a highly fragmented system of distinct clusters of international organizations, along with states and other actors. Enhancing inter-organizational coordination and cooperation is thus often recognized as an important reform challenge in global sustainability governance. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals, agreed by the United Nations in 2015, thus explicitly aim at advancing policy coherence and institutional integration among the myriad international institutions. Yet, have these goals been effective in this regard? We assess here the impact of the Sustainable Development Goals on the network structure of 276 international organizations in the period 2012–2019, that is, four years before and four years after the launch of the Sustainable Development Goals. The network structure was approximated by analyzing data from the websites of these 276 international organizations that were joined by more than 1.5 million hyperlinks, which we collected using a custom-made web crawler. Our findings are contrary to what is widely expected from the Sustainable Development Goals: we find that fragmentation has in fact increased after the Sustainable Development Goals came into effect. In addition, silos are increasing around the 17 SDGs as well as around the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development.     

Status,challenges and pathways to the sustainable use of wild species

The use of wild species is extensive in both high- and low-income countries. At least 50,000 wild species are used by billions of people around the world for food, energy, medicine, material, education or recreation, contributing significantly to efforts to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, overexploitation remains a major threat to many wild species. Ensuring and enhancing the sustainability of use of wild species is thus essential for human well-being and biodiversity conservation. Globally, the use of wild species is increasing due to growing human demand and efficiency, but its sustainability varies and depends on the social-ecological contexts in which the use occurs. Multiple environmental and social (including economic) drivers affect the sustainability of use of wild species, posing major current and future challenges. In particular, climate change has already increased the vulnerability of many uses and is expected to increase it further in the coming decades, while global and illegal trades are, in many cases, key drivers of unsustainability. There is no single “silver bullet” policy to address these and other major challenges in the sustainable use of wild species. Rather, effective policies need to integrate inclusive actions at multiple scales that adopt right-based approaches, pay attention to equitable distribution of access and costs and benefits, employ participatory processes, strengthen monitoring programs, build robust customary or government institutions and support context-specific policies, as well as adaptive management.     

Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach

Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.     

The role of social capital for farmers’ climate change adaptation in Lancang River basin in China

This paper distinguishes between bridging and bonding social capital to assess their roles for individual farmers’ adaptation strategies taken through technology adoption. Based on primary data collected in Langcang River (LCR) basin area in southwestern China, the paper finds: (1) adaptation measures have been widely taken by surveyed households, but non-infrastructure-based measures are more prevalent than infrastructure-based measures and (2) surveyed households have strong social capital while having weak bridging social capital. Their bonding social capital has significantly positive relationship with their adaptation decisions, but bridging social capital does not have such statistically significant relationship. It recommends that the governments contemplate carefully how to help the poor to get a good combination of bonding and bridging social capital when designing policies to help the rural poor to improve their long-term adaptive capacity and achieve sustainable rural development.     

A global comparison of carbon-water-food nexus based on dietary consumption

Exploring the environmental impact of dietary consumption has become increasingly important to understand the carbon-water-food nexus, vital to achieving UN sustainable development goals. However, the research on diet-based nexus assessment is still lacking. Here, we developed an Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (EE-MRIO) model with compiling a global MRIO table based on the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 10 database, where we specifically constructed a water withdrawal account and matched it to each economy at the sectoral level. The regional heterogeneity and synergy of carbon-water nexus affected by dietary patterns in nine countries was explored. The results show that: (1) Dietary consumption is the main use of water withdrawal for each country; Japan, the US, South Korea, and India have a high per capita dietary water footprint. Mainly due to consumption of processed rice, Japan has the highest per capita value of 488 M³/year, accounting for 63.4% of the total water footprint. (2) The total dietary carbon footprints in China, India, and the US are high, which is mainly caused by the high consumption of animal products (including dairy) either due to the large population (China, India) or animal-based diet (the US). Americans have the highest per capita dietary carbon footprint, reaching 755.4 kg/year, 2.76 times that of the global average. (3) Generally, imported/foreign footprints account for a greater share in dietary water and carbon footprints of developed countries with an animal-based diet. (4) In the nexus analysis, the US, Japan, and South Korea are key-nexus countries, vegetables, fruit and nuts, tobacco and beverages, and other food products are selected as key-nexus sectors with relatively high dietary water and carbon footprint. Furthermore, dietary consumption choices lead to different environmental impacts. It is particularly important to find a sustainable dietary route adapted to each country considering that heterogeneity and synergism exist in key-nexus sectors to achieve the relevant Sustainable Development Goals.     

When the whole is less than the sum of all parts – Tracking global-level impacts of national sustainability initiatives

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are described as integrated and indivisible, where sustainability challenges must be addressed across sectors and scales to achieve global-level sustainability. However, SDG monitoring mostly focuses on tracking progress at national-levels, for each goal individually. This approach ignores local and cross-border impacts of national policies and assumes that global-level progress is the sum of national, sector-specific gains. In this study, we investigate effects of reforestation programs in China on countries supplying forest and agricultural commodities to China. Using case studies of rubber and palm oil production in Southeast Asian countries, soy production in Brazil and logging in South Pacific Island states, we investigate cross-sector effects of production for and trade to China in these exporting countries. We use a three-step multi-method approach. 1) We identify distal trade flows and the narratives used to justify them, using a telecoupling framework; 2) we design causal loop diagrams to analyse social-ecological processes of change in our case studies driven by trade to China and 3) we link these processes of change to the SDG framework. We find that sustainability progress in China from reforestation is cancelled out by the deforestation and cross-sectoral impacts supporting this reforestation abroad. Narratives of economic development support commodity production abroad through unrealised aims of benefit distribution and assumptions of substitutability of socio-ecological forest systems. Across cases, we find the analysed trade supports unambiguous progress on few SDGs only, and we find many mixed effects – where processes that support the achievement of SDGs exist, but are overshadowed by counterproductive processes. Our study represents a useful approach for tracking global-level impacts of national sustainability initiatives and provides cross-scale and cross-sectoral lenses through which to identify drivers of unsustainability that can be addressed in the design of effective sustainability policies.     

Haze trends over the capital cities of 31 provinces in China, 1981–2005

This paper presents the patterns and trends of haze over 31 provincial capitals in China between 1980 and 2005. The haze measurements were based on human visual range observations at 31 synoptic meteorological stations operated by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The high haze regions were found in largely populated cities such as Chongqing, Beijing, and Shenyang, while the low haze regions were located in the cities with small populations such as Lhasa, Kunming, and Guiyang in southwestern China and Haikou in southern China. The haziness of the 12 cities shows a significantly (95%) decreasing trend, while that of the 13 cities shows a significantly increasing trend over the 25-year study period. The increases are evident in the eastern and southwestern cities in China. It has also been found that there is a decreasing haze trend in winter but an increasing trend in summer for many cities. Nonetheless, the causality for the reduction of aerosol emissions has not been established. This report is the first survey and preliminary analysis done on haze patterns and trends from 1980 to 2005 over the capital cities of 31 provinces in Mainland China.     

Knowledge integration in sustainability governance through science-based actor networks

Understanding how science, technology and innovation can best help to accelerate progress in achieving sustainable development remains a grand challenge for researchers and practitioners. In the context of the global consultation process for preparing a post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, various science-based actor networks have emerged, aiming to translate research into political decision-making and to inform transformations towards sustainability. Over the last years, these networks seem to have taken an ever-growing role in structuring the science-policy interface in global sustainability governance. The question arises, however, how they understand and organize ‘scientific knowledge integration’ in sustainability politics.This study offers a structured comparison of twelve global science-based actor networks engaged in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. It shows that these networks use two types of strategies to foster scientific knowledge integration in sustainability governance. A new framework emerges, in which each strategy corresponds to two main approaches of scientific knowledge integration: The entrepreneurial strategy generally seeks to advance advice-oriented and solution-oriented knowledge processes, while assessment-oriented and learning-oriented processes in scientific knowledge integration are mainly promoted through a mediating strategy.     

Dams and population displacement on China’s Upper Mekong River: Implications for social capital and social–ecological resilience

China is home to nearly half of the world’s 50,000 large dams, which provide irrigation, flood protection, and hydroelectricity. Most of these projects involve substantial population displacement, which can disrupt social capital, the webs of interdependence and support that community members maintain with one another through relationships of trust and reciprocity. We use new empirical evidence to examine the association between dam-induced displacement and social capital in China and interpret our findings in the context of social–ecological resilience theory. Our focus is on agricultural households on the Upper Mekong River, where four large hydropower dams have been constructed over the past twenty years.Our broad finding is that resettlement is associated with diminished social capital, as measured by two key indicators: inter-household exchange of financial resources, and inter-household exchange of agricultural labor. These effects differ across the four dam sites in the study based on local economic conditions and changes in resettlement policy. We find that population resettlement is associated with markedly lower levels of agricultural labor exchange. In an economically under-developed setting, this reduces the depth and breadth of social support that agricultural households rely on to produce crops for subsistence and income. This in turn diminishes social–ecological resilience because social capital is a key factor that helps agricultural or resource-dependent communities manage risk and adapt to changes and stressors.We consider the policy implications of our findings in the context of scientific and industry efforts to minimize social harm, promote economic vitality, and improve the sustainability of hydropower as a form of renewable energy.     

不同耕作方式和秸秆还田条件下能值比较分析

以山东桓台县华北集约化农业生态系统试验站小麦—玉米轮作农田生态系统为例,利用能值分析方法,对不同耕作方式(翻耕、旋耕、免耕)和秸秆还田(清茬、粉碎还田)下农田生态系统的能值利用进行了比较分析。结果表明:粉碎还田模式的可更新有机能比率比清茬的高出4~5倍,说明粉碎还田的可持续发展指数大于清茬的,有利于保护环境;耕作方式上,可持续发展指数表现为免耕的翻耕的旋耕的,说明免耕法具有明显的可持续发展优势,应适当推广。     

Identifying regional drivers of future land-based biodiversity footprints

Biodiversity footprints quantify the impacts on ecosystems caused by final consumption in a region, accounting for imports and exports. Up to now, footprint analyses have typically been applied to analyze past or present consumption patterns. Here, we quantify future land-based biodiversity footprints associated with three diverging Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), using loss in Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) as an indicator of biodiversity loss. For each SSP, we retrieved socio-economic and land use projections to 2100 from the IMAGE-MAGNET model and calculated associated biodiversity footprints for seven aggregated world regions. We then compared these with the functional diversity component of the biosphere integrity planetary boundary. Our results indicate that the global land-based biodiversity impact stays below the boundary (tentatively set at 90% of original BII) in all scenario-year combinations. Contrastingly, the per capita boundary is transgressed in one, four and five out of the seven world regions in 2100 for SSP1 (‘sustainability’), SSP2 (‘middle of the road’) and SSP3 (‘regional rivalry’), respectively. These results indicate a strong difference in the biodiversity impact of final consumption between the regions and between SSPs. Even in the ‘sustainability’ scenario, the per capita biodiversity footprint of consumption in North America needs to be reduced to meet the per capita boundary. Thus, policy-making to safeguard the environment would benefit from adopting region-specific strategies: focusing on realizing agricultural efficiency gains in regions with unexploited potential, while focusing on promoting dietary changes towards less animal-based consumption in regions with limited potential for additional efficiency gains.     

Quantifying urban water supply security under global change

Urban water supply security is commonly measured in terms of per capita water availability at the city level. However, the actual services that citizens receive are influenced by several components, including (1) a city's access to water, (2) infrastructure for its treatment, storage and distribution, (3) financial capital for building and maintaining infrastructure, and (4) management efficacy for regulating and operating the water system. These four types of "capital" are required for the provision of public water supply services. A fifth capital “community adaptation” is needed when public services are insufficient. Here, we develop and test an integrated framework for the quantification of urban water supply security based on these five capitals. “Security” involves three dimensions: 1) the level of system function (i.e., supply services); 2) risks to these services; and 3) robustness of system functioning. We apply this Capital Portfolio Approach (CPA) to seven urban case studies selected from a wide range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic regions on four continents. Detailed data on urban water infrastructure and services were collected in two cities, and key stakeholder interviews and household surveys were conducted in one city. Additional cities were assessed based on publicly available utility and globally available datasets. We find that in cities with high levels of public services, adaptive capacity remains inactive, while cities with high levels of water insecurity rely on community adaptation for self-provision of services. Inequality in the capacity to adapt leads to variable levels of urban water security and the vulnerability of the urban poor. Results demonstrate the applicability of the presented framework for the assessment of individual urban water systems, as well as for cross-city comparison of any type of cities. We discuss implications for policy and decision-making.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候变化与水安全

保障水安全是应对和缓解气候变化的核心问题,也是实现可持续发展的前提。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组报告单独设立第四章“水”,分析了气候变化对全球水循环的影响,评估了水循环变化对人类社会和生态系统的影响,指出了当前与未来的水安全风险,分析了与水相关适应措施的收益与成效。报告显示,人类活动导致的气候变化加速了全球水文循环,对水安全产生负面影响,面临水安全风险的人口与地区增多,并增加了由社会经济因素造成的水资源脆弱性。水安全风险随全球升温水平的升高而增加,在水安全脆弱地区表现更为显著。将全球升温限制在1.5℃可有效降低未来的水安全风险,有助于实现水安全、可持续发展和具有气候恢复力的发展三重目标。我国水安全问题突出,急需在“灰-绿”基础设施生态水文效应、三维水资源短缺、水-粮食-能源耦合、地球系统模拟器研发应用等方面重点开展研究工作。     

Mapping the diversity of regulating ecosystem services in European cities

This paper presents the first analysis of the diversity of regulating ecosystem services (ESS)—key variables for global environmental sustainability and change in an urban era—across a globally important part of the urban world, urban Europe. We map the first pan-European pattern of regulating ecosystem services in urban core areas and their associated hinterlands and discuss data against the background of each city's land-use development history and planning culture. Upon selecting more than 300 cities, we used the Urban Atlas database and a straightforward calculation method to map three regulating ecosystem services. The main results of this study show (a) a heterogeneous distribution of regulating ecosystem services across European cities, (b) considerable provisioning differences between core cities and the hinterland, (c) a grouping of European regions according to their potential for urban ecosystem service provisioning and (d) an ecosystem services supply ranking for European cities. Considerable differences in urban ecosystem services were found among northern countries, such as Sweden and Finland, which are rich in supplying ecosystem services compared to the UK and Belgium, which, similar to Spanish and Greek cities, are characteristically low in ecosystem services provision. Our results provide the first overall picture of regulating services in urban EU-Europe and serve to inform decisions on the key aspects of future European policy and strategies involving urban nature, green spaces and health.     

Societal premises for sustainable development in large southern cities

This article examines considerations related to the societal premises of a ‘sustainable city’ in the context of large southern cities. The article also reviews some alternative concepts to ‘sustainable city’ such as ‘eco-city’ and ‘ecological city’ and examines their suitability in the South. The article proposes that the greatest challenge of environmental urban development in the South is not necessarily the lack of environmental services and infrastructure, but the societal structures reproducing unequal distribution and malfunctioning of these services. The authors’ empirical evidence and personal experience from Lagos, New Delhi, Cairo and Manila is presented to elaborate the argument. The article calls for locally defined ‘sustainable city’ models that consider local societal and cultural resources and constraints along with environmental improvements. In this process, sustainability is not regarded as a goal, but as a criterion for motivated and transparent administration as well as efficient, flexible and equal service provision and resource allocation.     

Resource depletion,peak minerals and the implications for sustainable resource management

Today's global society is economically, socially and culturally dependent on minerals and metals. While metals are recyclable, terrestrial mineral deposits are by definition ‘non-renewable’ over human timescales and their stocks are thus finite. This raises the spectre of ‘peak minerals’ – the time at which production from terrestrial ores can no longer rise to meet demand and where a maximum (peak) production occurs. Peak minerals prompts a focus on the way minerals can be sustainably used in the future to ensure the services they provide to global society can be maintained.As peak minerals approaches (and is passed in some cases), understanding and monitoring the dynamics of primary mineral production, recycling and dematerialisation, in the context of national and global discussions about mineral resources demand and the money earned from their sale, will become essential for informing and establishing mechanisms for sustainable mineral governance and use efficiency into the future. Taking a cross-scale approach, this paper explores the economic and productivity impacts of peak minerals, and how changes in the mineral production profile are influenced not only by technological and scarcity factors, but also by environmental and social constraints. Specifically we examine the impacts of peak minerals in Australia, a major global minerals supplier, and the consequences for the Asia-Pacific region, a major destination for Australia's minerals.This research has profound implications for local and regional/global sustainability of mineral and metal use. The focus on services is useful for encouraging discussion of transitions in how such services can be provided in a future more sustainable economy, when mineral availability is constrained. The research also begins to address the question of how we approach the development of strategies to maximise returns from mineral wealth over generations.