Striving for equivalency across the Alberta,British Columbia,Ontario and Québec carbon pricing systems: the Pan-Canadian carbon pricing benchmark

The Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change is designed to put Canada on track to meet its Paris commitments. A key pillar of the plan is the introduction of a pan-Canadian carbon price by the end of 2018. However, four Canadian provinces, nearly 85% of the Canadian economy and population, have already implemented carbon pricing systems. British Columbia (BC) has a carbon tax. Alberta is transitioning from an output-based allocation system for industrial emitters to a hybrid system combining a carbon levy and refined output-based system. Québec and Ontario have implemented cap-and-trade systems, linked to California. Recognizing these existing systems, rather than impose a single carbon pricing mechanism, the Pan-Canadian Approach to Carbon Pricing gives provinces and territories the flexibility to adopt a carbon tax, a hybrid system, or a cap-and-trade system. To address concerns relating to ‘fairness’ and equivalency of carbon price, a federal carbon pricing benchmark establishes criteria relating to minimum ‘common scope’ and ‘increases in stringency’ that provincial and territorial carbon pricing systems must meet. This article explores the design features of the existing Alberta, BC, Ontario and Québec carbon pricing systems, and considers how the benchmark affects stringency and addresses equivalency of carbon price across these different systems.

Key policy insights

• Canada is taking advantage of its federal structure of government to introduce a minimum pan-Canadian carbon price of $10/tCO₂e in 2018, rising by $10/year to $50/tCO₂e in 2022.

• Rather than imposing a uniform pricing mechanism, the Canadian federal government is recognizing existing subnational carbon pricing mechanisms with very different design features – BC’s carbon tax, Québec and Ontario’s cap-and-trade systems, and Alberta’s hybrid system – to deliver the pan-Canadian carbon price.

• In order to deliver a minimum level of increasing stringency and to address issues of equivalency of carbon price across sub-national jurisdictions, the federal government is in the early stages of implementing a federal carbon-pricing benchmark.

• The lessons learned from the Canadian experience will be relevant to harmonizing carbon pricing systems across both other federal jurisdictions and countries.

     

Is the UK preparing for “war”? Military metaphors,personal carbon allowances,and consumption rationing in historical perspective

Metaphors are essential devices for fostering collective understanding and forging political commitment across diverse constituencies. Due to the ineffectualness of prevailing linguistic representations of climate change, discursive entrepreneurs have begun to invoke over the last few years new imagery that frames the challenge as tantamount to a protracted state of armed hostility. This process of rhetorical militarization has been most prominent in the UK and it is subsequently creating opportunities for policy makers to propose greenhouse gas-reduction strategies that are reminiscent of wartime austerity programs. A particular approach that has attracted considerable interest is consumer regulation involving the imposition of annual quotas on personal carbon emissions. This idea is best understood as a variant of the comprehensive civilian rationing programs that were deployed during and after World War II. Because any eventual scheme to reduce greenhouse gas production at the individual level will require consummate public legitimacy, this historical experience can serve as a useful reference point for the design of contemporary interventions. To this end, the discussion highlights the methods that the British government used to sustain compliance with the war and postwar consumption control regimes. Of special interest is the role that black market trading and other illicit forms of commerce played during these periods. The conclusion reflects on the status of consumerism in contemporary lifestyles, considers the risks of political interference with consumer prerogatives, and draws some insights from this earlier experience with rationing     

Applying personal carbon trading: a proposed ‘Carbon,Health and Savings System’ for British Columbia,Canada

Addressing climate change requires the synergy of technological, behavioural and market mechanisms. This article proposes a policy framework that integrates the three, deploying personal carbon trading as a key element within a policy portfolio to reduce personal carbon footprints. It draws on policy and human motivation literatures that address the behavioural changes that may be needed in the context of a long-term threat such as climate change. This proposal builds on an analysis of the British Columbia carbon tax, international examples of carbon pricing instruments and strategies for behavioural change such as social networks, loyalty management, mobile apps and gamification. Interviews were conducted with experts in financial services, energy conservation and clean technology, as well as with specialists in climate, health and taxation policy. Their input, together with a review of the theoretical literature and practical case studies, informed the proposed design of a Carbon, Health and Saving System for promoting individual engagement and collective action by linking long-term climate mitigation measures with short-term personal and social goals, including health, recreation and social reinforcement.

Policy Relevance

This article identifies areas for climate policy innovation and recommends policies that can support, promote and enable personal carbon budgeting and collective action. Although this study is focused on British Columbia, both the input provided by key opinion leaders and the proposed framework are applicable to other jurisdictions.

This policy proposal shows how personal carbon trading could work in the context of a Canadian province with an existing climate mitigation policy. It also specifies a minimum viable product approach to establishing the economic, social and technological foundations for personal carbon trading.

The Carbon, Health and Saving System identifies the technologies and stakeholders needed to implement personal carbon trading, and offers the possibility of motivating a widespread conscious human response in the event that carbon taxation proves insufficient to generate economic adaptation in a changing climate.     

Swidden,rubber and carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia?

Swidden (also called shifting cultivation) has long been the dominant farming system in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia (MMSEA). Today the ecological bounty of this region is threatened by the expansion of settled agriculture, including the proliferation of rubber plantations. In the current conception of REDD+, landscapes involving swidden qualify almost automatically for replacement by other land-use systems because swiddens are perceived to be degraded and inefficient with regard to carbon sequestration. However, swiddening in some cases may be carbon-neutral or even carbon positive, compared with some other types of land-use systems. In this paper we describe how agricultural policies and institutions have affected land use in the region over the last several decades and the impact these policies have had on the livelihoods of swiddeners and other smallholders. We also explore whether incentivizing transitions away from swiddening to the cultivation of rubber will directly or reliably produce carbon gains. We argue that because government policies affect how land is used, they also influence carbon emissions, farmer livelihoods, environmental services, and a host of other variables. A deeper and more systematic analysis of the multiple consequences of these policies is consequently necessary for the design of successful REDD+ policies in MMSEA, and other areas of the developing world. REDD+ policies should be structured not so much to ‘hold the forest boundary’ but to influence the types of land-use changes that are occurring so that they support both sustainable livelihoods and environmental services, including (but not limited to) carbon.     

Precipitation anomalies,economic production,and the role of “first-nature” and “second-nature” geographies: A disaggregated analysis in high-income countries

Linkages between hydroclimate variability and economic development are often theorized to be present only in developing economies. Using spatially small-scaled data from multiple decades for European regions, we examine the relationship between precipitation anomalies and economic performance in highly developed economic systems. We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis to mitigate the bias potentially arising from spatial aggregation because precipitation realizations tend to vary drastically within larger sized economic units. We modify original precipitation indices to capture the dynamic expectation formation of economic agents about climate conditions to measure deviations from these anticipated environmental states. Using panel model regressions in a quasi-experimental research design, we analyse whether deviations from average growth rates of aggregated economic output are potentially non-linearly related to the magnitude of precipitation deviations from the anticipated climate norm within regions, after accounting for any shocks common to all regions. We find that precipitation deviations that exceed critical thresholds (intermediate anomalies) for both unusually dry and unusually wet years reduce regional growth rates. The adverse impacts are more pronounced for overly dry periods. Importantly, the relationship between economic growth and precipitation anomalies is not generalizable across all regions. Natural geographical circumstances such as prevailing climatic conditions (“first-nature” geographies) and human-made socio-economic factors such as sector structure and income level (“second-nature” geographies) moderate the anomaly response. The empirical findings substantiate the necessity to incorporate precipitation variability into the assessment of economic costs of climate change; not only in developing countries or agricultural societies but also in highly developed economic systems. Moreover, the empirical results have important implications for policy makers as uneven effect sizes at the subnational level suggest that policy measures should be targeted in space and coordinated between national and regional levels of government.     

Pursuing sustainable nitrogen management following the “5 Ps” principles: Production,People, Planet,Policy and Partnerships

Nitrogen (N) is an essential nutrient to support life, but if poorly managed, can adversely affect the environment, ecosystems and human health. The global challenge of achieving food security with minimal ecosystem degradation and human health impacts hinges on sustainable N management, which goes beyond farm level and requires concerted efforts from a range of stakeholders. While various metrics have been developed to inform N management, most of them focus on one or two stakeholders only. Few efforts have tried to integrate N metrics to derive a coherent set of actions for all stakeholders. Here we propose the “5 Ps” principles (Production, People, Planet, Policy and Partnerships) that shape guidelines for sustainable N management with multidimensional N metrics (i.e., N use efficiency, virtual N factor, N footprint, N neutrality, reactive N spatial intensity, N boundary, N price and N equity). The “5 Ps” principles address the environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability. These principles allow multidimensional evaluation of N management, highlight specific areas for improvement, direct future research, and support the design of effective policy and legislation. They facilitate collective actions of producers, consumers, researchers and policy makers towards sustainable N management regionally and globally.     

“It's so different today”: Climate change and indigenous lifeways in British Columbia,Canada

Indigenous Peoples of British Columbia have always had to accommodate and respond to environmental change. Oral histories, recollections of contemporary elders, and terms in indigenous languages all reflect peoples’ responses to such change, especially since the coming of Europeans. Very recently, however, many people have noted signs of greater environmental change and challenges to their resilience than they have faced in the past: species declines and new appearances; anomalies in weather patterns; and declining health of forests and grasslands. These observations and perspectives are important to include in discussions and considerations of global climate change.     

Protecting “First world” markets and “Third world” nature: The politics of illegal logging in Australia,the European Union and the United States

Global forest governance has recently seen the emergence of a timber legality regime. In an aim to regulate global timber trade flows, the US, the EU and Australia adopted laws prohibiting illegally harvested timber from entering their markets. While some view this as a milestone for environmental and social stewardship in the global forest sector, the effects of the regime remain contested.In order to better understand likely effects of the regime, we apply the Discursive Agency Approach to analyze discursive dynamics of policy making among the stakeholders involved in the creation of each law and their effects on governance design and implementation.Based on 120 interviews in the US, Australia, the EU and with global organizations/institutions, as well as 19 informal conversations, 300 documents, and participant observation data, our results show that legality is a powerful concept in forest governance. Drawing attention away from sustainability, it enables discursive divides between the global North and South as well as between wood producers and importers. These divides were crucial for the emergence of the legality regime. While some forest industry groups perceived the new laws as an opportunity, others saw them as a threat. In all three regions this led to coalitions between supportive industry factions and environmental groups. These coalitions were based on a complementarity of goals; environmentalists aimed to protect “Third World” forests while industry groups aimed to protect “First World” markets against growing competition from these former regions. Yet each coalition was composed differently and employed distinct – albeit related – discursive strategies in policy making. This affected the design of each law and its implementation. The shift from sustainability towards legality re-surfaces prominently in implementation. Stakeholder discussions range from coercive “threatening” to more learning-oriented “educating” approaches. We conclude by discussing the effects these discursive struggles in Australia, the EU and the US have on the global timber legality regime.     

“Caribou was the reason,and everything else happened after”: Effects of caribou declines on Inuit in Labrador,Canada

For many Indigenous Peoples in the Circumpolar North, cultural engagement and continuity across generations is directly related to relationships between and among people, animals, and landscapes. However, minimal research outlines the emotional responses and disruptions to culture and identity that are driven by ecological change, and the subsequent cultural dimensions of coping and adapting to this uncertainty. Through a case study that explores how caribou population declines and a caribou hunting ban are impacting Inuit in the Nunatsiavut and NunatuKavut regions of Labrador, Canada, this article examines the critical interplay between cultural continuity and adaptive capacity for responding to ecological uncertainty. More specifically, this study: 1) described the central role that caribou play for Inuit emotional wellness, identity, and cultural continuity; 2) explored how the rapid declines of caribou in Labrador are affecting Inuit emotional wellness, identity, and cultural continuity; and 3) characterized the ways in which Inuit are adapting to these emotio-social, cultural, and ecological changes. Drawing from an Inuit-led, multi-year, multi-media qualitative and visual media research program, data from video interviews (n = 84: Nunatsiavut region: n = 54; NunatuKavut region: n = 30) were analyzed using a video-based qualitative analysis, constant-comparative methods, and inductive qualitative approach. Results indicated that caribou are a foundational element for Inuit emotional wellness, identity, and cultural continuity. The changes in caribou populations are resulting in complex emotional responses, losses to cultural meaning and knowledge, and alterations to Inuit identities. The impacts on emotions, identity, and cultural continuity related to Inuit-caribou relations at an individual and collective level reflect the interconnections between cultural continuity and adaptive capacity that underlie the loss of this culturally important species. Though this research focuses on two Inuit groups and caribou in Labrador, the insights from these lived experiences highlight the ongoing cultural and identity consequences associated with species declines occurring globally.     

“A sky of brass and burning winds”: documentary evidence of rainfall variability in the Kingdom of Lesotho, Southern Africa, 1824–1900

Forecasting austral summer rainfall in southern Africa is hampered by a lack of long-term instrumental data. This paper extends the historical record for the subcontinent by presenting the first extensive 19th century climate history for Lesotho derived from documentary evidence. The data sources included unpublished English-, French- and Sesotho-language materials archived in Lesotho, South Africa and the UK. These included letters, journals and reports written by missionaries and colonial authorities, which were supplemented by newspapers, diaries, travelogues and other historical sources. Each source was read in chronological order, with any climate information recorded verbatim. Observations were classified into five categories (Very Wet, Relatively Wet, ‘Normal’, Relatively Dry, and Very Dry) based upon the predominant documented climate during each ‘rain-year’ (July to June). The latter portion of the chronology was then compared for accuracy against available instrumental precipitation records from Maseru (1886–1900). The results yield a semi-continuous record of climate information from 1824 to 1900. Data are restricted to lowland areas, but reveal drought episodes in 1833–34, 1841–42, 1845–47, 1848–51, 1858–63, 1865–69, 1876–80, 1882–85 and 1895–99 (the most severe drought years being 1850–51 and 1862–63) and wet periods or floods in 1835–36, 1838–41, 1847–48, 1854–56, 1863–65, 1873–75, 1880–81, 1885–86 and 1890–94. The rainfall chronology is compared with similar records for South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe. Linkages to possible forcing mechanisms, including ENSO teleconnections and historical coral-derived southwest Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variations are also explored.     

Arguing for climate policy through the linguistic construction of narratives and voices: the case of the South-African green paper “National Climate Change Response”

The purpose of the present paper is to examine a selection of macro- and micro-linguistic features (at text and sentence/word level respectively) of the South-African Green Paper “National Climate Change Response” from 2010. Our overarching assumption is that the Green Paper needs to handle competing interests, beliefs and voices in a narrative structure favouring specific courses of action. How does the government portray the complex natural and societal phenomenon of climate change, and how does it take into account the many and often competing national and international views and interests which come into play? Our hypothesis is that the Green Paper constructs a narrative and that it relates to a number of voices other than that of the authors, through linguistic markers of polyphony, such as negation, sentence connectives, adverbs and reported speech. Thus we propose a narrative and polyphonic analysis of the Green Paper, at the level of the text as a whole (macro-level) but also with attention to linguistic constructions of polyphony or “multi-voicedness” (micro-level). We find that the narrative-polyphonic properties of the Green Paper contribute to a strategy for building consensus on climate change policy. The South African government assumes the role of main hero in its own climate change “story”, and there are subtle forms of interaction with different and typically non-identified voices, such as concessive constructions and presuppositions. These results support our overarching interpretation of the whole document as striving to impose a South African consensus on the issue of climate change.     

“Reporting on climate change: A computational analysis of U.S. newspapers and sources of bias, 1997–2017”

News organizations constitute key sites of science communication between experts and lay audiences, giving many individuals their basic worldview of complex topics like climate change. Previous researchers have studied climate change news coverage to assess accuracy in reporting and potential sources of bias. These studies typically rely on manually coding articles from a handful of prestigious outlets, not allowing comparisons with smaller newspapers or providing enough diversity to assess the influence of partisan orientation or localized climate vulnerability on content production. Making these comparisons, this study indicates that partisan orientation, scale of circulation, and vulnerability to climate change correlate with several topics present in U.S. newspaper coverage of climate change. After assembling a corpus of over 78,000 articles covering two decades from 52 U.S. newspapers that are diverse in terms of geography, partisan orientation, scale of circulation, and objectively measured climate risk, a coherent set of latent topics were identified via an automated content analysis of climate change news coverage. Topic model results indicate that while outlet bias does not appear to impact the prevalence of coverage for most topics surrounding climate change, differences were evident for some topics based on partisan orientation, scale, or vulnerability status, particularly those relating to climate change denial, impacts, mitigation, or resource use. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive study of U.S. newspaper coverage of climate change and identifies specific topics where outlet bias constitutes an important contextual factor.     

The winterstorm “Vivian” of 27 February 1990: About the meteorological development,wind forces and damage situation in the forests of Switzerland

Summary During the months January and February 1990 a series of severe cyclones were responsible for enormous wind-induced damage in Europe. The final of this series, on 27 February 1990, cyclone Vivian mainly affected the alpine valleys of Switzerland. 5 Millions m³ of timber were felled by the severe winds, a record number in this century. A complete damage survey of the deforested areas offers in combination with meteorological data an unique data set for a detailed case study of this extreme event.This paper describes the general meteorological development from the synoptic scale down to the mesoscale of Switzerland and presents a general overview of the damage situation. The main results show that a rare situation of a straight frontal zone stretching over the whole Atlantic Ocean and showing a strong gradient in temperature pointed directly toward Central-Europe. Two waves formed along this elongated polar front and deepend rapidly to depressions. The first low travelled on the southernmost trajectory of the whole storm series and affected Switzerland most. North of the Alps the prefrontal warm air was blocked to the east by the arriving coldfront and had to escape into the complex terrain of the alpine valleys. There, the stormy winds were strengthened by channelizing and Föhn effects. The large temperature gradient between the prefrontal and the incoming air masses induced thunderstorm activity which vortices and downdrafts might have enhanced locally. As a result most of the damaged forested areas were found between 1200 and 1600 m MSL on slopes, which were mainly exposed toward the prevailing NW-winds. A comparison of extreme wind speeds for the period 1978–1992 revealed that this event's extreme high speed of 74.5 m/s, measured at a high elevated pass station in the mountains, was exceptional. For lower elevated stations the wind speeds were high but in the range of other observed extreme values. In addition to the severe wind forces the duration of sustained high wind speed was exceptionally long during February 1990.With 16 Figures     

Reply to comment by Ben-Zvi,A., D. Rosenfeld and A. Givati on the paper: Levin,Z., N. Halfon and P. Alpert, “Reassessment of rain experiments and operations in Israel including synoptic considerations,” Atmos. Res. 97, 513–525. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.06.011

Levin et al. (2010; hereafter LHA) (Levin, Z., Halfon, N., Alpert, P., 2010. Reassessment of rain experiments and operations in Israel including synoptic considerations. Atmos. Res. 97, 513–525. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.06.011.), reanalyzed the results of the operational seeding in northern Israel between 1975 and 2007 and the preceding Israel 2 cloud seeding experiment (1969–1975) and concluded that there is no net increase in precipitation over the target areas. Our analysis revealed that a synoptic bias during Israel 2 is one of the reasons for the apparent positive effect of seeding in the northern target area and the negative effect in the southern area both of which disappeared in the following experiment in the south (Israel 3; 1975–1995) and the operational seeding in the north.Ben-Zvi et al. (2010;hereafter BRG) criticized our paper primarily on the ground that we did not consider the positive results of Israel 1 experiment (1960–1967). It should be noted that in Israel 1 different seeding lines were used from those in both Israel 2 and the operational period. In addition, its raw data is not accessible anymore for reanalysis. Furthermore, Israel 2 had been designed as a confirmatory cross-over experiment to Israel 1 and failed to reproduce its promising results with double ratio (DR) of ~ 1.00, namely, zero rainfall enhancements. The same DR values were also found in Israel 3 and in the operational seeding. Therefore, because of the differences in the two experiments, the lack of access to the raw data and the disappointing results of the confirmatory experiment, we decided to concentrate our analysis on the more recent seeding activities.The attempt by BRG to explain the reduction of the DR to ~ 1.00 in the operational seeding period by the suppression due to pollution have been disproved by Alpert et al., 2008, Alpert et al., 2009 and also fail to explain the sharp decline of the target/control ratio right at the beginning of the operational seeding period when the lucky draw in this area came to its end (see LHA).     

Comment on: “Corrections to the Mathematical Formulation of a Backwards Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model” by Gibson and Sailor (2012: Boundary-Layer Meteorology 145, 399–406)

We discuss the results of Gibson and Sailor (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 145:399–406, 2012) who suggest several corrections to the mathematical formulation of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model of Rotach et al. (Q J R Meteorol Soc 122:367–389, 1996). While most of the suggested corrections had already been implemented in the 1990s, one suggested correction raises a valid point, but results in a violation of the well-mixed criterion. Here we improve their idea and test the impact on model results using a well-mixed test and a comparison with wind-tunnel experimental data. The new approach results in similar dispersion patterns as the original approach, while the approach suggested by Gibson and Sailor leads to erroneously reduced concentrations near the ground in convective and especially forced convective conditions.