Mapping the diversity of regulating ecosystem services in European cities

This paper presents the first analysis of the diversity of regulating ecosystem services (ESS)—key variables for global environmental sustainability and change in an urban era—across a globally important part of the urban world, urban Europe. We map the first pan-European pattern of regulating ecosystem services in urban core areas and their associated hinterlands and discuss data against the background of each city's land-use development history and planning culture. Upon selecting more than 300 cities, we used the Urban Atlas database and a straightforward calculation method to map three regulating ecosystem services. The main results of this study show (a) a heterogeneous distribution of regulating ecosystem services across European cities, (b) considerable provisioning differences between core cities and the hinterland, (c) a grouping of European regions according to their potential for urban ecosystem service provisioning and (d) an ecosystem services supply ranking for European cities. Considerable differences in urban ecosystem services were found among northern countries, such as Sweden and Finland, which are rich in supplying ecosystem services compared to the UK and Belgium, which, similar to Spanish and Greek cities, are characteristically low in ecosystem services provision. Our results provide the first overall picture of regulating services in urban EU-Europe and serve to inform decisions on the key aspects of future European policy and strategies involving urban nature, green spaces and health.     

When the whole is less than the sum of all parts – Tracking global-level impacts of national sustainability initiatives

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are described as integrated and indivisible, where sustainability challenges must be addressed across sectors and scales to achieve global-level sustainability. However, SDG monitoring mostly focuses on tracking progress at national-levels, for each goal individually. This approach ignores local and cross-border impacts of national policies and assumes that global-level progress is the sum of national, sector-specific gains. In this study, we investigate effects of reforestation programs in China on countries supplying forest and agricultural commodities to China. Using case studies of rubber and palm oil production in Southeast Asian countries, soy production in Brazil and logging in South Pacific Island states, we investigate cross-sector effects of production for and trade to China in these exporting countries. We use a three-step multi-method approach. 1) We identify distal trade flows and the narratives used to justify them, using a telecoupling framework; 2) we design causal loop diagrams to analyse social-ecological processes of change in our case studies driven by trade to China and 3) we link these processes of change to the SDG framework. We find that sustainability progress in China from reforestation is cancelled out by the deforestation and cross-sectoral impacts supporting this reforestation abroad. Narratives of economic development support commodity production abroad through unrealised aims of benefit distribution and assumptions of substitutability of socio-ecological forest systems. Across cases, we find the analysed trade supports unambiguous progress on few SDGs only, and we find many mixed effects – where processes that support the achievement of SDGs exist, but are overshadowed by counterproductive processes. Our study represents a useful approach for tracking global-level impacts of national sustainability initiatives and provides cross-scale and cross-sectoral lenses through which to identify drivers of unsustainability that can be addressed in the design of effective sustainability policies.     

Enhancing the sustainability of commodity supply chains in tropical forest and agricultural landscapes

The rapid expansion of the production of agricultural commodities such as beef, cocoa, palm oil, rubber and soybean is associated with high rates of deforestation in tropical forest landscapes. Many state, civil society and market sector actors are engaged in developing and implementing innovative interventions that aim to enhance the sustainability of commodity supply chains by affecting where and how agricultural production occurs, particularly in relation to forests. These interventions – in the form of novel or moderated institutions and policies, incentives, or information and technology – can influence producers directly or achieve their impacts indirectly by influencing consumer, retailer and processor decisions. However, the evidence base for assessing the impacts of these interventions in reducing the negative impacts of commodity agriculture production in tropical forest landscapes remains limited, and there has been little comparative analysis across commodities, cases, and countries. Further, there is little consensus of the governance mechanisms and institutional arrangements that best support such interventions. We develop a framework for analyzing commodity supply chain interventions by different actors across multiple contexts. The framework can be used to comparatively analyze interventions and their impacts on commodity production with respect to the spatial and temporal scales over which they operate, the groups of supply chain actors they affect, and the combinations of mechanisms upon which they depend. We find that the roles of actors in influencing agricultural production depends on their position and influence within the supply chain; that complementary institutions, incentives and information are often combined; and that multi-stakeholder collaborations between different groups of actors are common. We discuss how the framework can be used to characterize different interventions using a common language and structure, to aid planning and analysis of interventions, and to facilitate the evaluation of interventions with respect to their structure and outcomes. Studying the collective experience of multiple interventions across commodities and spatial contexts is necessary to generate more systematic understandings of the impacts of commodity supply chain interventions in forest-agriculture landscapes.     

Towards urban water sustainability: Analyzing management transitions in Miami,Las Vegas,and Los Angeles

As climate change challenges the sustainability of existing water supplies, many cities must transition toward more sustainable water management practices to meet demand. However, scholarly knowledge of the factors that drive such transitions is lacking, in part due to the dearth of comparative analyses in the existing transitions literature. This study seeks to identify common factors associated with transitions toward sustainability in urban water systems by comparing transitions in three cases: Miami, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. For each case, we develop a data-driven narrative that integrates case-specific contextual data with standardized, longitudinal metrics of exposures theorized to drive transition. We then compare transitions across cases, focusing on periods of accelerated change (PoACs), to decouple generic factors associated with transition from those unique to individual case contexts. From this, we develop four propositions about transitions toward sustainable urban water management. We find that concurrent exposure to water stress and heightened public attention increases the probability of a PoAC (1), while other factors commonly expected to drive transition (e.g. financial stress) are unrelated (2). Moreover, the timing of exposure alignment (3) and the relationship between exposures and transition (4) may vary according to elements of the system’s unique context, including the institutional and infrastructure design and hydro-climatic setting. These propositions, as well as the methodology used to derive them, provide a new model for future research on how cities respond to climate-driven water challenges.     

Contesting climate justice in the city: Examining politics and practice in urban climate change experiments

Debates about climate justice have mainly occurred at the international scale, and have focussed on the rights and responsibilities of nation-states to either be protected from the effects of climate change, or to take action to reduce emissions or support adaptation. In this paper, we argue that it is both productive and necessary to examine how climate justice is being pursued at the urban scale, which brings into focus the need for attention to issues of recognition as well as rights and responsibilities. Building on work from environmental justice, which has conceptualized justice as trivalent, we propose that climate justice can be understood as a pyramid, the faces of which are distributions, procedures, rights, responsibilities and recognition. We then apply this conceptual framework to examine climate change interventions in five cities; Bangalore, Monterrey, Hong Kong, Philadelphia and Berlin. Arguing that the politics and practices of urban climate change interventions are constantly engaging with and refracting the idea of justice, we examine how justice was articulated, practiced and contested across our cases. The perspective of recognition emerges as a particularly useful entry point through which to explore the types of rights, responsibilities, distributions and procedures required to respond justly to climate change. We conclude by reflecting on our framework, arguing that it is useful both as an analytical device to interrogate climate justice and to shape the design of climate change interventions which seek to ensure climate justice.     

Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation evaluated using daily statistics from the PRUDENCE ensemble

An ensemble of regional climate modelling simulations from the European framework project PRUDENCE are compared across European sub-regions with observed daily precipitation from the European Climate Assessment dataset by characterising precipitation in terms of probability density functions (PDFs). Models that robustly describe the observations for the control period (1961–1990) in given regions as well as across regions are identified, based on the overlap of normalised PDFs, and then validated, using a method based on bootstrapping with replacement. We also compare the difference between the scenario period (2071–2100) and the control period precipitation using all available models. By using a metric quantifying the deviation over the entire PDF, we find a clearly marked increase in the contribution to the total precipitation from the more intensive events and a clearly marked decrease for days with light precipitation in the scenario period. This change is tested to be robust and found in all models and in all sub-regions. We find a detectable increase that scales with increased warming, making the increase in the PDF difference a relative indicator of climate change level. Furthermore, the crossover point separating decreasing from increasing contributions to the normalised precipitation spectrum when climate changes does not show any significant change which is in accordance with expectations assuming a simple analytical fit to the precipitation spectrum.     

Battle over the sun: Resistance,tension, and divergence in enabling rooftop solar adoption in Indonesia

This article examines sustainability transitions in the Global South, focusing on the adoption of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems in Indonesia as a case study. Based on 55 in-depth interviews and a secondary data review, we develop an alternative analytical framework that draws insights from geographical political economy and political ecology. This alternative lens allows us to better inform the socio-technical transition literature by uncovering both the spatial implications of renewable energy transitions and the power differentials underpinning them. We find that the emergence of rooftop PV technology in Indonesia has provoked resistance, as it challenges the incumbent power company’s monopoly over urban space, the Java-Bali grid system’s dependency on coal-based electricity, and state-led practices that prioritise the implementation of small-scale solar in rural and remote areas. We argue that paying attention to the asymmetric power relations among institutions and actors across multiple scales offers a more-fine grained approach to analysing the dynamics of sustainability transitions. Our findings also call for greater attention to diverse and divergent perspectives among niche actors, emphasising the need to genuinely embrace local voices and knowledge that might otherwise be marginalised by the dominant globally and nationally driven narratives of renewable transition.     

A Note on Wave-Turbulence Interaction and the Possibility of Scaling the Very Stable Boundary Layer

Success in scaling the very stable boundary layer has been mixed. One possible reason for this is that wave-turbulence interaction can result in significant energy coupling between turbulence within the planetary boundary layer and the mean flow outside the PBL. Three regimes are described where wave-turbulence interaction forms a significant part of the dynamics. In the first, energy and momentum flows are confined within the PBL and do not preclude local scaling. In the other two, which involve topographically forced waves and propagating waves respectively, energy/momentum transfers across the PBL make success in local scaling unlikely.     

Building the evidence base for REDD+: Study design and methods for evaluating the impacts of conservation interventions on local well-being

Climate change mitigation in developing countries is increasingly expected to generate co-benefits that help meet sustainable development goals. This has been an expectation and a hotly contested issue in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) since its inception. While the core purpose of REDD+ is to reduce carbon emissions, its legitimacy and success also depend on its impacts on local well-being. To effectively safeguard against negative impacts, we need to know whether and which well-being outcomes can be attributed to REDD+. Yet, distinguishing the effects of choosing particular locations for REDD+ from the effects of the interventions themselves remains a challenge. The Global Comparative Study (GCS) on REDD+ employed a quasi-experimental before-after-control-intervention (BACI) study design to address this challenge and evaluate the impacts of 16 REDD+ pilots across the tropics. We find that the GCS approach allows identification of control groups that represent the counterfactual, thereby permitting attribution of outcomes to REDD+. The GCS experience belies many of the common critiques of the BACI design, especially concerns about collecting baseline data on control groups. Our findings encourage and validate the early planning and up-front investments required to evaluate the local impacts of global climate change mitigation efforts with confidence. The stakes are high, both for the global environment and for local populations directly affected by those efforts. The standards for evidence should be concomitantly high.     

Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 478 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from nineteen studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5 °C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 63 %. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are +28 % and +23 %, respectively. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.     

Rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land management across the Global South

Research on how urbanization affects rural agriculture has typically focused on loss of farmland due to urban expansion. However, more distal pathways that could link urbanization to rural agriculture, including enhanced connectivity through rural-urban migration and market access, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess whether greater rural-urban connectivity is associated with changes in agricultural land management across the Global South. Such associations are complex, and thus difficult to measure at this scale. We therefore take a two-step approach to investigate these relationships. First, using a multivariate clustering approach, we define a series of rural-urban connectivity typologies from existing spatial data on land use, demographics, rural market access, and rural population change (as a proxy for outmigration). We examine the variation in key agricultural outcome variables (mean cereal crop yields, % of attainable yields met, and cropping frequency) within the typologies, which shows that greater overall connectivity (market access and population change) is associated with higher cereal yields, yield attainment, and cropping frequency. Second, building on these clustering results, we develop hypotheses about the relationship between rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land use intensity. We then use propensity score matching to test these hypotheses by comparing locations with similar sociodemographic and land use characteristics. When controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, agricultural land, and population density, rural locations with relatively high market access, negative population change, and greater built-up area have significantly higher mean nitrogen application rates, irrigated areas, and cereal yields across the Global South. Results vary by region, but greater rural-urban connectivity and urban extents are generally associated with higher overall agricultural inputs and yields, particularly in Asia. However, we find little support for a relationship between connectivity and either % attainable yields met or field size. Our findings stress the need to better understand the mechanisms that link urbanization processes and agricultural management at different spatiotemporal scales.     

The Scaling Behaviour of a Turbulent Kinetic Energy Closure Model for Stably Stratified Conditions

We investigate the scaling behaviour of a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model for stably stratified conditions. The mixing length scale for stable stratification is proportional to the ratio of the square root of the TKE and the local Brunt–Väisälä frequency, which is a commonly applied formulation. We analyze the scaling behaviour of our model in terms of traditional Monin–Obukov Similarity Theory and local scaling. From the model equations, we derive expressions for the stable limit behaviour of the flux–gradient relations and other scaling quantities. It turns out that the scaling behaviour depends on only a few model parameters and that the results obey local scaling theory. The analytical findings are illustrated with model simulations for the second GABLS intercomparison study. We also investigate solutions for the case in which an empirical correction function is used to express the eddy diffusivity for momentum as a function of the Richardson number (i.e. an increasing turbulent Prandtl number with stability). In this case, it seems that for certain parameter combinations the model cannot generate a steady-state solution. At the same time, its scaling behaviour becomes unrealistic. This shows that the inclusion of empirical correction functions may have large and undesired consequences for the model behaviour.     

A survey of urban climate change experiments in 100 cities

Cities are key sites where climate change is being addressed. Previous research has largely overlooked the multiplicity of climate change responses emerging outside formal contexts of decision-making and led by actors other than municipal governments. Moreover, existing research has largely focused on case studies of climate change mitigation in developed economies. The objective of this paper is to uncover the heterogeneous mix of actors, settings, governance arrangements and technologies involved in the governance of climate change in cities in different parts of the world.The paper focuses on urban climate change governance as a process of experimentation. Climate change experiments are presented here as interventions to try out new ideas and methods in the context of future uncertainties. They serve to understand how interventions work in practice, in new contexts where they are thought of as innovative. To study experimentation, the paper presents evidence from the analysis of a database of 627 urban climate change experiments in a sample of 100 global cities.The analysis suggests that, since 2005, experimentation is a feature of urban responses to climate change across different world regions and multiple sectors. Although experimentation does not appear to be related to particular kinds of urban economic and social conditions, some of its core features are visible. For example, experimentation tends to focus on energy. Also, both social and technical forms of experimentation are visible, but technical experimentation is more common in urban infrastructure systems. While municipal governments have a critical role in climate change experimentation, they often act alongside other actors and in a variety of forms of partnership. These findings point at experimentation as a key tool to open up new political spaces for governing climate change in the city.     

Voices of young biosphere stewards on the strengths,weaknesses, and ways forward for 74 UNESCO Biosphere Reserves across 83 countries

Young stakeholders are key actors in social-ecological systems, who have the capacity to be agents of sustainability transformation but are also at high risk of exclusion in the unfolding of global change challenges. Despite the focus of sustainability on future generations, there has been little research effort aimed at understanding young actors’ roles as biosphere stewards. In this work we investigate how young stakeholders perceive and participate in the implementation of sustainability objectives in 74 Biosphere Reserves of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme across 83 countries, through participatory group workshops, individual surveys and grey literature review. We explore to what extent youth perceptions are aligned or not with current understandings of Biosphere Reserves and how young stakeholders are acting in pursuit of Biosphere Reserve objectives. We find that young stakeholders have a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and challenges faced by environmental governance, such as resilience and adaptation to global change and the governance challenges of implementing adaptive co-management and increasing stakeholder participation. We also show that young stakeholders can be active participants in a wide range of activities that contribute to achieving conservation and development goals in their territories. They are particularly concerned with youth participation within all levels of Biosphere Reserve functioning and with the creation of sustainable livelihood opportunities that will allow future generations to remain in their native territories. Our study provides evidence of the importance of young stakeholder knowledge and perspectives as central actors in conservation and development initiatives, like Biosphere Reserves, and of the need to increase young stakeholder integration and participation within environmental governance.     

What happens after climate change adaptation projects end: A community-based approach to ex-post assessment of adaptation projects

Over the last decade, hundreds of climate change adaptation projects have been funded and implemented. Despite the importance of these first-generation adaptation projects for establishing funders and implementors’ “best practices,” very little is known about how early adaptation projects have endured, to what ends, and for whom. In this article, I propose a community-based methodology for ex-post assessment of climate change adaptation projects. This methodology contributes to recognitional justice by asking the individuals and collectives tasked with sustaining adaptation initiatives to define adaptation success and what criteria for success should be assessed. I apply this subjective assessment approach in 10 communities across Ecuador that participated in an internationally funded adaptation project that concluded in 2015. My analysis draws together participatory mapping, walking interviews with local leaders, participant observation, and surveys with former project participants. The results highlight that even adaptation projects that were deemed highly successful at their closure have uncertain futures. I find that the sustainability mechanisms that were envisioned by project implementors have not functioned, and communities are shouldering the burden of reviving failing adaptation interventions. These findings highlight that the current model of episodic funding for climate change adaptation projects and evaluation processes needs to be revisited to acknowledge the long-term challenges faced by communities. This analysis also calls attention to the importance of ex-post assessment for adaptation projects and the potential of subjective assessment approaches for building more ontological and epistemological pluralism in understandings of successful climate change adaptation.     

Incorporating resilience into sustainability indicators: An example for the urban water sector

The development and use of indicators is common practice in efforts to promote urban sustainability. Indicators used to measure urban sustainability tend to focus narrowly on describing the current state of the urban system. Although a time series analysis using these indicators may lend insights into trends towards or away from certain ‘sustainability’ goals, existing indicators of urban sustainability do not provide information on the ability or the likelihood that the current system state can be maintained or improved over time. Indicators that incorporate a measure of system resilience would provide useful information on system sustainability. Through development of a new indicator, Water Provision Resilience (WPR), we provide an example of how measures of resilience could be incorporated into sustainability indicators. The new indicator adds six color codings to the existing indicator ‘percent of the population with access to safe water.’ Each color coding represents a measure of the ability of the water system to maintain or improve the current percent of the population with access to safe water in key areas of the water provision sector: supply, infrastructure, service provision, finances, water quality and governance. The metric is then applied to three cities. The goal in developing this metric is to provide a starting point for re-thinking the metrics used to measure progress and sustainability in order to incorporate the ability to absorb and adapt to stresses into sustainability analysis.     

Historical manufacturing volatility and local sustainability efforts: A link to the past

Renewed attention to the role of subnational efforts in addressing myriad environmental challenges necessitates a greater understanding of the factors associated with program adoption. Given observed relationships between adoption of sustainability practices and the presence of carbon-intensive industry, and separately the observed persistence of industrial history in a given place, we explore the link between historical manufacturing employment volatility and current sustainability plan adoption at the local level. Our analysis suggests that the magnitude of changes in manufacturing employment is inversely related to the likelihood of sustainability plan adoption. Our analysis further suggests that, given the same pace of change, counties with shrinking manufacturing employment are more likely to adopt sustainability plans than those with growing employment. Lastly, we find that the link between past industrial transitions and local sustainability commitment is moderated by local disaster experience and priority for environmental protection. Collectively, the findings also shed light on potential—and otherwise unobservable—barriers to transitions to sustainable practices at the local level. In particular, the inverse relationship between pace of employment change and plan adoption suggests that minimizing the rapidity of contemporary transitions may counterintuitively ease the eventual adoption of sustainability-related policies.     

Synergies and trade-offs between adaptation,mitigation and development

To succeed in meeting carbon emissions reduction targets to limit projected climate change impacts, it is imperative that improved synergies be developed between mitigation and adaptation strategies. This is especially important in development policy among remote indigenous communities, where demands for development have often not been accompanied by commensurate efforts to respond to future climate change impacts. Here we explore how mitigation and adaptation pathways can be combined to transform rural indigenous communities toward sustainability. Case studies from communities in Alaska and Nepal are introduced to illustrate current and potential synergies and trade-offs and how these might be harnessed to maximize beneficial outcomes. The adaptation pathways approach and a framework for transformational adaptation are proposed to unpack these issues and develop understanding of how positive transformational change can be supported.     

Scalar capital as ingredient of success in conservation governance: evidence from Melanesia

Problems of scale abound in the governance of complex social-ecological systems. Conservation governance, for example, typically occurs at a single scale, but needs to inform governance and action at other scales to be truly effective at achieving social and ecological outcomes. This process is conventionally conceived as unidirectional – either scaling down or scaling up – in the way it both exploits and creates the natural, social, human, institutional, and financial resources and benefits that are collectively known as conservation ‘capital’. Here we analyse multiscale conservation governance and the different types of capital that impede or facilitate its effectiveness. Comparative analysis of conservation planning in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, through in-depth document review, key informant interview, and participant observation, reveals limited evidence of unidirectional processes. Instead, we observe multidirectional scaling pathways, cultivated by the following six scale-explicit characteristics of effective conservation governance: 1) multiscale understanding, 2) scale jumping, 3) scaled leadership characteristics, 4) scaled stakeholder engagement, 5) scaled policy frameworks, and 6) scaled institutional settings. While the latter four are familiar concepts, though not always recognised as explicitly scalar, we know little about the first two attributes of conservation governance. Based on this novelty and relevance, we propose a new form of capital – ‘scalar capital’ – to complement natural, social, human, institutional, and financial capitals as both input and outcome of effective conservation governance. We find that scalar capital facilitates flows of different resources (data, conservation objectives, practitioner experience, institutional support, and funding) in multiple directions. Critically, we present empirical evidence that conservation governance can foster scalar capital to improve outcomes across multiple scales.     

Inclusive wealth index measuring sustainable development potentials for Chinese cities

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are the blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future. To achieve the goal, tracking progress — not just on a national level, but locally — is crucial to guide future policy development. While sustainability assessment at the national evel is quite advanced in China, similar assessments focusing at the regional or even at the city-level are currently lacking. Here, we advanced the Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) framework, which is firstly proposed by the United Nations Development Programme, through taking water wealth into account and adjusting the variable based on data availability. Then we investigate the sustainability performance of 210 cities in China in 2016 via the advanced version of the IWI framework. The analysis makes a holistic assessment based on produced, human, and natural capital, as well as considering heterogeneities in economy, social, and environmental conditions across these cities. We find that cities clustered in the eastern parts of China are characterized by high levels of sustainability performance and increasing capacities for sustainability, largely driven by their high quality and quantity of human capital. In comparison, the western cities have a large amount of low-skilled human capital and low levels of produced capital, which determines their low sustainability performance. Cities clustered in the north are heavily dependent on low value-added products and resource-intensive industries. Furthermore, we make projections of the IWI and its three components for different cities from 2020 to 2030, referring to the index systems presented in city planning which describe the development speed of income, education, fixed asset investment, forests etc. In the future, cities in central and western clusters show considerable potential for increasing IWI per capita, whereas cities with a dominant energy sector in the north would face declining capacity for sustainability due to the exhaustion of fossil fuels and raw materials. By fully taking account of and adapting to local circumstances, we tailor-design pathways for different types of cities to grow their sustainability potentials. Those resources-dependent cities in the north could avoid the impending decline by gradually developing their human and produced capital while abandoning their resource dependency. Our study contributes to city-level sustainable development in China through the lens of per capita IWI and the potential future dynamics of changing compositions in their capital.