Exposure to extreme climate decreases self-rated health score: Large-scale survey evidence from China

High temperature is a growing threat and impacts public health through different exposure mechanisms. Our study constructs a comprehensive exposure measurement based on temperature variability, duration, and effective influence range. We investigate human responses to high temperatures through self-rated health scores based on individual-level data from China Labor-force Dynamic Survey (CLDS). Results show that higher temperature and temperature variability significantly decrease self-rated health scores. Subjective health risk is most significantly related to the cumulative temperature in the previous two weeks. We also find that the exposure effects at night and on weekdays are more severe. Workers who experience greater exposure from commuting and work environments are negatively impacted by high temperatures. In addition, men, the elderly, middle and low education groups, rural residents are more likely to be impacted by high temperatures.     

The demographics of energy and mobility poverty: Assessing equity and justice in Ireland,Mexico, and the United Arab Emirates

Energy and mobility poverty limits people’s choices and opportunities and negatively impinges upon structural economic and social welfare patterns. It also hampers the ability of planners to implement more equitable and just decarbonization pathways. Research has revealed that climate policies have imposed a financial burden on low-income and other vulnerable groups by increasing food and energy prices, leading as well to global inequality. Similarly, researchers have warned that in developing countries, emission mitigation policies could increase poverty rates and even frustrate progress towards universal access to clean energy. This research explores whether low-income social groups experience a 'double energy vulnerability', a situation that simultaneously positions people at heightened risk of transport and energy poverty. We investigate this 'double vulnerability' through original data collection via three nationally representative surveys of Mexico (N = 1,205), the United Arab Emirates (N = 1,141), Ireland and Northern Ireland (N = 1,860). We draw from this original data to elaborate on the sociodemographic attributes, expenditure and behaviour emerging from energy and transport use, focusing on themes such as equity, behaviour and vulnerability. We propose energy and transport poverty indexes that allow us to summarize the key contributing factors to energy and transport poverty in the countries studied and uncover a strong correlation between these two salient forms of poverty. Our results suggest that energy and transport poverty are common issues regardless of the very different national, and even sub-national, contexts. We conclude that energy and transport poverty requires target policy interventions suitable for all segments of society, thus enabling contextually-tailored, just energy transitions.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：地下水

地下水已成为满足全球农业生产和生活用水需求的重要来源,也是实现联合国2030年可持续发展议程的关键资源。地下水的数量和质量会直接或间接地受到气候变化的影响。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组报告对全球和区域历史时期及未来地下水变化趋势进行了评估。报告指出：(1)自21世纪初以来,由于地下水灌溉用水量增加,全球许多国家和地区地下水储量呈现下降趋势。(2)在气候变化背景下,地下水开采量将持续增加,包括全球主要含水层中不可再生的地下水。(3)在热带和半干旱地区,气候变化引起强降水发生频率加快,导致地下水补给量呈增加趋势;在高寒地区,受气候变化影响地下水主要补给期从春季向冬季演变,由于融雪周期和融雪量的减少造成高寒地区春季地下水补给量减少。在地下水退化区域开展渐进式生态修复,是应对气候变化和保障水安全的重要措施。     

Ethnic conflict as a risk amplifier for resurgent P. vivax malaria in temperate zones: A case study from the Caucasus region

One of the most protracted post-Soviet conflicts of the 1990s was a territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested Karabakh region. Years of ethnic violence led to the displacement of nearly a million refugees, as well as a public health crisis that included epidemics of malaria, diphtheria and other preventable diseases. Malaria is not usually considered a health risk in temperate climates, but seasonal epidemics were widespread throughout the Caucasus in the early decades of the twentieth century. This paper combines qualitative historical research with geospatial analysis to explore how endemic malaria was controlled during the Soviet era, and how ethnic conflict reconfigured local ecologies to facilitate the re-emergence of P. vivax after the Soviet collapse in the 1990s. This research reveals that ethnic conflicts have specific qualities that increase risks of infectious and vector borne disease outbreaks, even in places that have successfully achieved a modern health and mortality profile. The risk amplifiers of ethnic conflicts include 1) the creation of contested spaces controlled by separatists that are outside of any national public health surveillance system; 2) mass population movements and refugee outflows due to ethnic violence; and 3) changes in land use that expand potential mosquito breeding sites throughout the conflict zone. Continued hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, combined with the repopulation of key vector species (specifically An. sacharovi) lead us to conclude that populations in the Caucasus remain vulnerable to resurgent outbreaks of ethno-nationalist violence as well as the return of seasonal malaria, even after decades of successful control.     

The influence of community-based resource management institutions on adaptation capacity: A large-n study of farmer responses to climate and global market disturbances

An underlying understanding among adaptation and community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) scholars is the existence of important feedbacks between local resource management institutions and individual adaptive capacity. The relationship between CBNRM and individual adaptive capacity is of global concern given the ubiquity of CBNRM worldwide, the patent impacts of global changes at local levels, and the recent calls for the integration of climate and rural development policies. So far, however, there have not been formal, large-n studies of that relationship. This study aims to fill that gap by testing whether the performance of community-based water management institutions and communal land regimes have an impact on the effectiveness of farmers’ adaptation responses to climatic and global market disturbances. For this purpose, the study relies on a unique dataset of individual and collective features obtained from water user associations (WUAs) and ejidos in Mexico. According to the regression results, well-functioning community-based water management institutions have a positive and significant impact on individual farmers’ self-reported response effectiveness. The impact of communal land property is also significant but negative. These effects, which hold only in the context of climate disturbances but not market disturbances, can be explained by looking at the support given by the associations to farmers, and issues of communal land marginalization, respectively. Policies that strengthen the autonomy and capacity for cooperation of WUAs and ameliorate structural deficits in communal land regimes shall not only guarantee a long-advocated path for rural development but also help farmers deal with some of the climatic uncertainties that increasingly threaten agriculture.     

The impact of the Sustainable Development Goals on a network of 276 international organizations

Global sustainability governance is marked by a highly fragmented system of distinct clusters of international organizations, along with states and other actors. Enhancing inter-organizational coordination and cooperation is thus often recognized as an important reform challenge in global sustainability governance. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals, agreed by the United Nations in 2015, thus explicitly aim at advancing policy coherence and institutional integration among the myriad international institutions. Yet, have these goals been effective in this regard? We assess here the impact of the Sustainable Development Goals on the network structure of 276 international organizations in the period 2012–2019, that is, four years before and four years after the launch of the Sustainable Development Goals. The network structure was approximated by analyzing data from the websites of these 276 international organizations that were joined by more than 1.5 million hyperlinks, which we collected using a custom-made web crawler. Our findings are contrary to what is widely expected from the Sustainable Development Goals: we find that fragmentation has in fact increased after the Sustainable Development Goals came into effect. In addition, silos are increasing around the 17 SDGs as well as around the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development.     

IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.     

Satellite evidence on the trade-offs of the food-water–air quality nexus over the breadbasket of India

Access to food, water, and good air quality is indispensable for human life, as reflected in various United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); however, pursuing food security may pose threats to water security and/or air quality. An important case is northwest India including the Punjab and Haryana states, which is the ‘breadbasket’ of India with a significantly increasing paddy rice area. The rapid expansion of rice farming has stressed groundwater resources and impacted air quality. Satellite observations have the potential to provide data for better decisions on food security, water storage, and air pollution, which would be vital for regional sustainable development. Based on observations from multiple satellites from 2001 to 2018, we found that paddy rice expansion (+22%) increased groundwater depletion (−1.50 cm/yr), residue burning (+500%), and air pollution (+29%, PM_2.5) in the breadbasket of India. Moreover, satellite observations showed changes in these interactions after the enactment of a groundwater protection policy in 2009, which decelerated groundwater depletion (−1.20 cm/yr) due to delayed rice planting and harvest dates (∼15d); the latter elevated air pollution in November (+29%, PM_2.5). Our finding stresses the need to reconcile the trade-offs and consider the interactions among SDGs 2 (food), 3 (good health), 6 (clean water), and 11 (air quality in cities), in policy-making for sustainable development. An efficient crop residue ultilization and management system, bottom-up groundwater use regulations, and cropping system shift towards less water-consuming crops are critically required to resolve the trade-offs of the food-water–air quality nexus in the northern India. Our study also showcases remote sensing approaches and methods to support and aid the achievement of the SDGs and track their progreses to support regional sustainable development.     

沿海缺水灌区地表水地下水联合调配管理信息系统

根据沿海地区实际情况,集成以往的研究成果及相关数据,建立沿海缺水灌区地表水地下水联合调配管理信息系统.该系统具有友好的界面,是地理信息系统、数据库技术以及水资源系统模拟优化等多技术综合集成的动态管理系统.模型具有一定的通用性,可为沿海缺水灌区地表水地下水规划管理服务,也可为各级水管部门准确及时提供水资源信息.     

黑河下游额济纳旗生态环境对调水的响应

利用额济纳旗水文监测资料、额济纳旗气象局1961—2007年地面气象观测资料、额济纳旗水务局2000—2009年地下水位和下泄水量和额济纳旗2002—2009年生态监测资料,结合实地调查,分析了黑河调水动态变化对下游地下水埋深、绿洲植被变化及东居延海水域面积的影响。结果表明:黑河调水后,下游下泄水量逐年增加,额济纳绿洲地下水位埋深逐年回升,东、西居延海恢复一定的水域面积,并且东居延海连续5年不干涸,绿洲面积有所增加,生态环境恶化及时得到遏制,缓解了下游水资源紧缺的状况,使得下游地区生态环境得到了初步改善,总体调水效果明显。     

Climate, water management, and policy in the San Pedro Basin: results of a survey of Mexican stakeholders near the U.S.–Mexico border

This paper reviews regional climate knowledge and vulnerability in the northern Mexico San Pedro River Basin, with a focus on water quality, quantity, and management issues on the Mexican side of the border. A discussion based on the available literature is supplemented by a survey assessing concerns about water and the quality and usability of climate and hydrologic information available to water managers and communities. The surveys indicate that the central concern for urban residents is the lack of reliable potable water due to frequent service breakdowns–with climate change and variability, specifically drought and high temperatures, as contributing factors. Water managers desire appropriate meteorological and hydrologic information to improve planning strategies, but access to this information remains limited. Considerable disagreement exists about who should pay for previously free or low-cost water and wastewater treatment. Urban users have little incentive to conserve because of the present flat, low rate and frustration with service. In rural areas, while a majority of ranchers recognize that variable climate and water loss could increasingly jeopardize their lifestyle, they seldom use meteorological information in planning or modify their water consumption. Climate vulnerability also includes potential for serious environmental health issues due to the presence of heavy metals and organic contaminants in the San Pedro.     

陆面过程模式中地下水位的参数化及初步应用

田间研究表明地表水和地下水有重要的相互作用,它与土壤含水量密切相关.土壤含水量不仅在陆气相互作用系统水和能量平衡中,而且在干旱、洪水预报、水资源管理、生态系统研究中起十分重要的作用.因此,研究地表水和地下水的相互作用,建立陆面模式中地下水位的动态表示,对于气候与水资源研究具有重要意义.将地下水位的动态表示问题归结为饱和与非饱和流问题,发展了其数值计算方案,建立了地下水位的动态表示,并与陆面过程模型耦合,建立了陆气相互作用中地下水位的动态表示,并进行了数值模拟研究.     

Evaluating the benefits of national adaptation to reduce climate risks and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals

Scaling up national climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement is critical not only to reduce risk, but also to contribute to a nation’s development. Traditional adaptation assessments are aimed at evaluating adaptation to cost-effectively reduce risk and do not capture the far-reaching benefits of adaptation in the context of development and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By grounding adaptation planning in an SDG vision, we propose and demonstrate a methodological process that for the first time allows national decision-makers to: i) quantify the adaptation that is needed to safeguard SDG target progress, and ii) evaluate strategies of stakeholder-driven adaptation options to meet those needs whilst delivering additional SDG target co-benefits. This methodological process is spatially applied to a national adaptation assessment in Ghana. In the face of the country’s risk from floods and landslides, this analysis identifies which energy and transport assets to prioritise in order to make the greatest contribution to safeguarding development progress. Three strategies (‘built’, ‘nature-based’, ‘combined SDG strategy’) were formulated through a multi-stakeholder partnership involving government, the private sector, and academia as a means to protect Ghana’s prioritised assets against climate risk. Evaluating these adaptation strategies in terms of their ability to deliver on SDG targets, we find that the combined SDG strategy maximises SDG co-benefits across 116 targets. The proposed methodological process for integrating SDG targets in adaptation assessments is transferable to other climate-vulnerable nations, and can provide decision-makers with spatially-explicit evidence for implementing sustainable adaptation in alignment with the global agendas.     

利用PowerBuilder6.0开发涉外工程管理系统

本文介绍了系统软件总体设计、主要功能及实现和系统的性能特点，该系统具有良好的界面和易于操作的特点，可完成涉外工程日常事务管理工作，得到用户的好评。     

What happens after climate change adaptation projects end: A community-based approach to ex-post assessment of adaptation projects

Over the last decade, hundreds of climate change adaptation projects have been funded and implemented. Despite the importance of these first-generation adaptation projects for establishing funders and implementors’ “best practices,” very little is known about how early adaptation projects have endured, to what ends, and for whom. In this article, I propose a community-based methodology for ex-post assessment of climate change adaptation projects. This methodology contributes to recognitional justice by asking the individuals and collectives tasked with sustaining adaptation initiatives to define adaptation success and what criteria for success should be assessed. I apply this subjective assessment approach in 10 communities across Ecuador that participated in an internationally funded adaptation project that concluded in 2015. My analysis draws together participatory mapping, walking interviews with local leaders, participant observation, and surveys with former project participants. The results highlight that even adaptation projects that were deemed highly successful at their closure have uncertain futures. I find that the sustainability mechanisms that were envisioned by project implementors have not functioned, and communities are shouldering the burden of reviving failing adaptation interventions. These findings highlight that the current model of episodic funding for climate change adaptation projects and evaluation processes needs to be revisited to acknowledge the long-term challenges faced by communities. This analysis also calls attention to the importance of ex-post assessment for adaptation projects and the potential of subjective assessment approaches for building more ontological and epistemological pluralism in understandings of successful climate change adaptation.     

Sustainable groundwater management: How long and what will it take?

Groundwater depletion is arguably one of humanity's greatest sustainability challenges of the 21st century. With Sustainable Development Goals only a decade away, water authorities around the world are in the urgent need for concrete and targeted measures to ensure that communities adhere to groundwater management policies as rapidly and as effectively as possible. In this paper, we combine computational social science, groundwater modelling and empirical data from the World Values Survey to generate future ensembles of hydro-social trajectories under alternative courses of management and social action or inaction. Our simulations shed new light on the role that cultural values can play in shaping the societal trajectories and norms that emerge when resources are either allocated or not sufficiently allocated to monitor compliance, issue fines, engage community leaders, and deter rule-breakers. This study presents a new approach to explore and evaluate the capacity of existing and future management actions to steer groundwater systems towards sustainable trajectories, to forecast the celerity and timing of social transformations at the inter-decadal scale, and to help nations identify the most pertinent management options under institutional, political, social, and/or cultural constraints. The methods presented here are broadly applicable to support strategic decisions that rely on the monitoring, enforcement, and compliance of environmental regulations.     

国际冰冻圈研究动态和我国冰冻圈研究的现状与展望

介绍了世界气候研究计划 (WCRP) /气候与冰冻圈 (CliC) 计划所代表的国际冰冻圈研究基本特点与未来趋势;分析了我国冰冻圈独特的区域特点, 阐明我国冰冻圈是维系干旱区绿洲经济发展和确保寒区生态系统稳定的重要水源保障, 其气候效应、环境效应、资源效应和生态效应正日趋显著并广泛地影响到西部生态与环境安全和水资源持续利用, 因而不仅具有科学上的重要性, 而且具有国家战略需求上的紧迫性。 提出未来我国冰冻圈研究应重点加强冰冻圈过程研究、记录研究、冰冻圈与气候模拟、冰冻圈与水资源以及冰冻圈变化的影响、适应与对策综合评估等5个方面的工作, 逐步完善并形成我国冰冻圈科学体系。     

黄河流域城镇化对地下水的影响分析

黄河流域是我国重要的生态屏障,也是我国粮食作物的主要产区。近年来,随着城镇化的发展,当地水资源分配出现了显著变化。因此,厘清黄河流域城镇化作用下水循环的改变对制定黄河流域城镇化政策具有重要意义。本文利用资源环境科学与数据中心的黄河流域下垫面数据、世界人口数据集的人口密度和Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace)的Center for Space Research (CSR)陆地总水储量格点数据,开展了黄河流域城镇化过程中地下水的变化特征分析工作。结果表明：黄河流域城镇化程度具有显著的空间差异,下游存在明显的城镇化加剧现象;全域人口密度整体呈上升趋势,其中下游的人口增长趋势最大;黄河流域的地下水呈下降趋势,以下游的地下水下降最为显著。通过对比黄河流域新增城镇、不变城镇和消失城镇的地下水变化差异,发现地下水下降幅度最小出现在消失城镇,新增城镇的地下水下降幅度小于不变城镇的区域。因此,黄河流域城镇化对地下水的减少具有显著的作用,新增城镇地下水并没有出现显著下降的结果也说明近年来城镇化后的地下水保护政策取得的效果良好。     

气象计算网格平台资源监视模块的设计与实现

气象计算网格聚合的计算资源具有地理分布、系统异构、运行状况与使用负载各不相同等特点。气象计算网格平台软件系统的资源监视模块, 涉及了远程气象网格节点、资源状态信息获取、web展示等3个层次。资源状态信息获取层可分为轮询、收集、整理等功能, web展示通过资源地理视图和资源列表栏目实现。基于ARCON客户工具箱技术开发实现了资源信息轮询和收集功能。现已实现对国家级网格节点及北京、成都、广州、沈阳4个区域级中心网格节点和安徽省级网格节点的10个高性能计算机系统的集中监视。