The size-frequency distribution of dormant Jupiter family comets

We estimate the total number and the slope of the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of dormant Jupiter family comets (JFCs) by fitting a one-parameter model to the known population. We first select 61 near-Earth objects (NEOs) that are likely to be dormant JFCs because their orbits are dynamically coupled to Jupiter [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002a. Icarus 156, 399-433]. Then, from the numerical simulations of Levison and Duncan [1997. Icarus 127, 13-32], we construct an orbit distribution model for JFCs in the NEO orbital element space. We assume an orbit-independent SFD for all JFCs, the slope of which is our unique free parameter. Finally, we compute observational biases for dormant JFCs using a calibrated NEO survey simulator [Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Spahr, T., Petit, J., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Icarus 161, 17-33]. By fitting the biased model to the data, we estimate that there are ∼75 dormant JFCs with H<18 in the NEO region and that the slope of their cumulative SFD is −1.5±0.3. Our slope for the SFD of dormant JFCs is very close to that of active JFCs as determined by Weissman and Lowry [2003. Lunar Planet. Sci. 34. Abstract 2003]. Thus, we argue that when JFCs fade they are likely to become dormant rather than to disrupt and that the fate of faded comets is size-independent. Our results imply that the size distribution of the JFC progenitors—the scattered disk trans-neptunian population—either (i) has a similar and shallow SFD or (i^′) is slightly steeper and physical processes acting on the comets in a size-dependent manner creates the shallower active comet SFD. Our measured slope, typical of collisionally evolved populations with a size-dependent impact strength [Benz, W., Asphaug, E., 1999. Icarus 142, 5-20], suggests that scattered disk bodies reached collisional equilibrium inside the protoplanetary disk prior to their removal from the planetary region.     

The orbit and atmospheric trajectory of the Orgueil meteorite from historical records

Abstract— Using visual observations that were reported 140 years ago in the Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences de Paris, we have determined the atmospheric trajectory and the orbit of the Orgueil meteorite, which fell May 14, 1864, near Montauban, France. Despite the intrinsic uncertainty of visual observations, we were able to calculate a reasonably precise atmospheric trajectory and a moderately precise orbit for the Orgueil meteoroid. The atmosphere entry point was ?70 km high and the meteoroid terminal point was ?20 km high. The calculated luminous path was ?150 km with an entry angle of 20°. These characteristics are broadly similar to that of other meteorites for which the trajectory is known. Five out of six orbital parameters for the Orgueil orbit are well constrained. In particular, the perihelion lies inside the Earth's orbit (q ?0.87 AU), as is expected for an Earth‐crossing meteorite, and the orbital plane is close to the ecliptic (i ?0°). The aphelion distance (Q) depends critically on the pre‐atmospheric velocity. From the calculated atmospheric path and the fireball duration, which was reported by seven witnesses, we have estimated the pre‐atmospheric velocity to be larger than 17.8 km/sec, which corresponds to an aphelion distance Q larger than 5.2 AU, the semi‐major axis of Jupiter orbit. These results suggest that Orgueil has an orbit similar to that of Jupiter‐family comets (JFCs), although an Halley‐type comet cannot be excluded. This is at odds with other meteorites that have an asteroidal origin, but it is compatible with 140 years of data‐gathering that has established the very special nature of Orgueil compared to other meteorites. A cometary origin of the Orgueil meteorite does not contradict cosmochemistry data on CI1 chondrites. If CI1 chondrites originate from comets, it implies that comets are much more processed than previously thought and should contain secondary minerals. The forthcoming return of cometary samples by the Stardust mission will provide a unique opportunity to corroborate (or contradict) our hypothesis.     

Searching for the source of short-period comet nuclei: The direction of the spatial migration of comets

An attempt is made to determine the spatial location of the main source of short-period comet nuclei. Numerical calculations for the orbital evolution of Jupiter family comets, medium-period comets, and Centaurs are used to show that the orbits of small solar system bodies tend to evolve in the direction of increasing semimajor axes. This relates to bodies that can experience encounters with planets and whose orbital evolution is shaped by gravitational perturbations. It is concluded that there is good reason to search for the main source of the nuclei of Jupiter family comets at distances of 6 AU or less from the sun.     

Orbital properties of Jupiter-family comets

The history of “comet families”, in particular the Jupiter comet family, is reviewed, together with ways in which the Jupiter family has been defined. New criteria are proposed, particularly with regard to distinguishing Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) from centaurs. The effect of nongravitational forces on JFCs is also discussed.     

Radio observations of Jupiter-family comets

Radio observations from decimetric to submillimetric wavelengths are now a basic tool for the investigation of comets. Spectroscopic observations allow us: (i) to monitor the gas production rate of the comets, by directly observing the water molecule, or by observing secondary products (e.g., the OH radical) or minor species (e.g., HCN); (ii) to investigate the chemical composition of comets; (iii) to probe the physical conditions of cometary atmospheres: kinetic temperature and expansion velocity. Continuum observations probe large-size dust particles and (for the largest objects) cometary nuclei.Comets are classified from their orbital characteristics into two separate classes: (i) nearly isotropic, mainly long-period comets and (ii) ecliptic, short-period comets, the so-called Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). These two classes apparently come from two different reservoirs, respectively, the Oort cloud and the trans-Neptunian scattered disc. Due to their different history and—possibly—their different origin, they may have different chemical and physical properties that are worth being investigated.The present article reviews the contribution of radio observations to our knowledge of the JFCs. The difficulty of such a study is the commonly low gas and dust productions of these comets. Long-period, nearly isotropic comets from the Oort cloud are better known from Earth-based observations. On the other hand, JFCs are more easily accessed by space missions. However, unique opportunities to observe JFCs are offered when these objects come by chance close to the Earth (like 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 in 2006), or when they exhibit unexpected outbursts (as did 17P/Holmes in 2007).About a dozen JFCs were successfully observed by radio techniques up to now. Four to ten molecules were detected in five of them. No obvious evidence for different properties between JFCs and other families of comets is found, as far as radio observations are concerned.     

A Monte Carlo estimate of the fraction of comets developing into sizeable asteroidal bodies

We present results of Monte Carlo simulations of orbital evolution showing that assuming a steady state there are roughly 50 extinct comets per active one in the Mars-crossing Jupiter family. The large number of extinct comets thus expected compared with the absence of observed apollo or Amor asteroids with aphelion distances greater than 4.2 AU indicates that less than five percent of the extinct comets survive as sizeable asteroidal bodies.Paper presented at the European Workshop on Planetary Sciences, organised by the Laboratorio di Astrofisica Spaziale di Frascati, and held between April 23–27, 1979, at the Accademia Nazionale del Lincei in Rome, Italy.     

Optical properties of dust from Jupiter family comets

To try to define specific physical properties of the dust of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), we compare the light scattered by them. Amongst the more than 1000 JFCs, less than 200 are numbered, 40 of them being rather bright. In the present work we use data from the latter. In situ observations of three nuclei show low albedo surfaces. The albedo of the dust particles in the coma is low, with generally a red colour. The A(α)fρ product is a measure of cometary activity and secular changes. Images of different regions (jets and fans) give indications on the nucleus rotation and position of the emitting areas, as compared to the position of the rotation axis. Differences in physical properties between the particles in different regions are pointed out by differences in the linear polarization of the scattered light and by spectral variations in brightness and polarization. Jupiter family comets are considered as dust-poor comets. Tails and trails’ studies give an estimation of the size distribution of the particles. However the dust production rates depend on the largest particles (up to centimetre size), which are mainly observed in the trails where large dark compact particles are found. These dark particles are also responsible for the high polarization in the inner most coma of some comets. The meaning, in terms of physical properties, of the linear polarization is discussed through different examples such as 2P/Encke, 9P/Tempel 1 or the fragments of 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3. Cometary outbursts and splitting events show that the properties of the dust ejected from the interior of the nucleus are similar to the ones of more active comets (new or with larger semi-major axis).     

Hilda asteroids among Jupiter family comets

Hilda asteroids and comets are similar from the compositional point of view. The D-taxonomic class prevailing among Hildas has all the characteristics found in cometary spectra. Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) coming from the trans-neptunian region are under the gravitational control of Jupiter, making them a dynamically unstable population with a mean dynamical lifetime of 10⁴ to ¹⁰⁵ years. In contrast, Hilda asteroids residing in the 3:2 mean motion resonance with Jupiter are a very stable population. But once they escape from the resonance, they are dynamically controlled by Jupiter, and in this sense their behavior resembles that of JFC. We performed a numerical simulation to analyze the dynamical evolution that Hildas follow after escaping from the resonance, and their contribution to the JFC population. We found that 8% of the particles leaving the resonance end up impacting Jupiter. 98.7% of the escaped Hildas live at least 1000 years as a JFC, with a mean lifetime of 1.4×¹⁰⁶ years. In particular, escaped Hildas stay mainly in the region of perihelion distances greater than 2.5 AU. On the other hand, the number of escaped Hildas reaching the inner Solar System (q<2.5 AU) is negligible. So, there are almost no Hilda asteroids among the NEO population. We also analyzed the possibility that the Shoemaker-Levy 9 were an escaped Hilda asteroid. In this case, it would be possible to give stronger constraints to its pre-capture orbital elements.     

Searching for the source of short-period comet nuclei: Choosing between different asteroid groups

This study continues our previous works on searching for the main source of the nuclei of Jupiter family comets (JFCs). Angular orbit element distributions are analyzed for comets and asteroids of different groups. The distributions of JFCs by argument of perihelion ω and longitude of perihelion π are studied. The distributions are shown not to have been formed during the evolution of JFCs in their current orbits. Similar distributions N(ω) and N(π) are not observed in bodies that have come into the JFC orbits from external sources. At the same time, the distributions of JFCs by all angular orbit elements are very similar to those of the Trojans. It is concluded that the latter are likely to be the main source of the JFC nuclei.     

Cosmogenic production rates and recoil loss effects in micrometeorites and interplanetary dust particles

We present a purely physical model to determine cosmogenic production rates for noble gases and radionuclides in micrometeorites (MMs) and interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) by solar cosmic‐rays (SCR) and galactic cosmic‐rays (GCR) fully considering recoil loss effects. Our model is based on various nuclear model codes to calculate recoil cross sections, recoil ranges, and finally the percentages of the cosmogenic nuclides that are lost as a function of grain size, chemical composition of the grain, and the spectral distribution of the projectiles. The main advantage of our new model compared with earlier approaches is that we consider the entire SCR particle spectrum up to 240 MeV and not only single energy points. Recoil losses for GCR‐produced nuclides are assumed to be equal to recoil losses for SCR‐produced nuclides. Combining the model predictions with Poynting‐Robertson orbital lifetimes, we calculate cosmic‐ray exposure ages for recently studied MMs, cosmic spherules, and IDPs. The ages for MMs and the cosmic‐spherule are in the range <2.2–233 Ma, which corresponds, according to the Poynting‐Robertson drag, to orbital distances in the range 4.0–34 AU. For two IDPs, we determine exposure ages of longer than 900 Ma, which corresponds to orbital distances larger than 150 AU. The orbital distance in the range 4–6 AU for one MM and the cosmic spherule indicate an origin either in the asteroid belt or release from comets coming either from the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Cloud. Three of the studied MMs have orbital distances in the range 23–34 AU, clearly indicating a cometary origin, either from short‐period comets from the Kuiper Belt or from the Oort Cloud. The two IDPs have orbital distances of more than 150 AU, indicating an origin from Oort Cloud comets.     

On the hypothesis of the eruption origin of near-parabolic comets

The hypothesis on the genetic connection of near-parabolic comets with Jupiter, Saturn, and the transPlutonian region (5–3000 AU) proposed by E.M. Drobyshevskii is considered. It has been shown that, on average, 5.6 comets per an area of 10⁶ AU² passed through the transPlutonian region during the whole history of observations. Six-hundred nineteen comets crossed the ecliptic at heliocentric distances ranging from 0 to 2 AU. As has been shown, from the total number of 945 near-parabolic comets, eight comets closely approached Jupiter and five closely approached Saturn. The Kreutz comets, 1277 objects, did not approach Jupiter closer than 3 AU. Their minimal distance to Saturn was 5.5 AU. The minimal distance of the Kreutz comets from the edge of the transPlutonian region was 28.8 AU. The analysis led to the conclusion that the concept on the origin of the near-parabolic comets suggested by Drobyshevskii is groundless.     

The population of faint Jupiter family comets near the Earth

We study the population of faint Jupiter family comets (JFCs) that approach the Earth (perihelion distances q<1.3 AU) by applying a debiasing technique to the observed sample. We found for the debiased cumulative luminosity function (CLF) of absolute total magnitudes H₁₀ a bimodal distribution in which brighter comets (H₁₀?9) follow a linear relation with a steep slope α=0.65±0.14, while fainter comets follow a much shallower slope α=0.25±0.06 down to H₁₀∼18. The slope can be pushed up to α=0.35±0.09 if a second break in the H₁₀ distribution to a much shallower slope is introduced at H₁₀∼16. We estimate a population of about 10³ faint JFCs with q<1.3 AU and 10<H₁₀<15 (radii ∼0.1-0.5 km). The shallowness of the CLF for faint near-Earth JFCs may be explained either as: (i) the source population (the scattered disk) has an equally very shallow distribution in the considered size range, or (ii) the distribution is flattened by the disintegration of small objects before that they have a chance of being observed. The fact that the slope of the magnitude distribution of the faint active JFCs is very similar to that found for a sample of dormant JFCs candidates suggests that for a surviving (i.e., not disintegrated) object, the probability of becoming dormant versus keeping some activity is roughly size independent.     

Relationship of comets and planets

We analyze our earlier data on the numerical integration of the equations of motion for 274 short-period comets (with the period P<200 yr) on a time interval of 6000 yr. As many as 54 comets had no close approaches to planets, 13 comets passed through the Saturnian sphere of action, and one comet passed through the Uranian sphere of action. The orbital elements of these 68 comets changed by no more than ±3 percent in a space of 6000 yr. As many as 206 comets passed close to Jupiter. We confirm Everhart’s conclusion that Jupiter can capture long-period comets with q = 4–6 AU and i < 9° into short-period orbits. We show that nearly parabolic comets cross the solar system mainly in the zone of terrestrial planets. No relationship of nearly parabolic comets and terrestrial planets was found for the epoch of the latest apparition of comets. Guliev’s conjecture about two trans-Plutonian planets is based on the illusory excess of cometary nodes at large heliocentric distances. The existence of cometary nodes at the solar system periphery turns out to be a solely geometrical effect.     

The nuclei of Jupiter family comets: A critical review of our present knowledge

Of the currently over 300 identified Jupiter family comets (JFCs), we have estimated nucleus sizes and shapes for fewer than 70 and have detailed nucleus observations arising from spacecraft fly-bys for just 3: 19P/Borrelly (Deep Space 1), 81P/Wild 2 (Stardust), and 9P/Tempel 1 (Deep Impact). These observations reveal similarities but also significant diversity. In this review, we make a critical assessment of our knowledge of JFC nuclei and suggest a priority list for observations of the nucleus of the JFC, 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, the Rosetta target comet.     

Periodic variation of Oort Cloud flux and cometary impacts on the Earth and Jupiter

Time variation in impact probability is studied by assuming that the periodic flux of the Oort Cloud comets within 15 au arises from the motion of the Sun with respect to the Galactic mid-plane. The periodic flux clearly shows up in the impact rate of the captured Oort Cloud cometary population, with a phase shift caused by the orbital evolution. Depending on the assumed flux of comets and the size distribution of comets, the impact rate of the Oort Cloud comets of 1 km in diameter or greater is from 5 to 700 impacts Myr⁻¹ on the Earth and from 0.5 to 70 impacts per 1000 yr on Jupiter. The relative fractions of impacts are 0.09, 0.11, 0.26 and 0.54 for long-period comets, Halley type comets, Jupiter family comets and near-Earth objects, respectively. For Jupiter, the corresponding fractions in the first three categories are 0.18, 0.31 and 0.51. If we consider physical fading of comet activity that is compatible with the observations, then the impact rates of active comets are two orders of magnitude smaller than the total impact rates by all kinds of comets and cometary asteroids of size 1 km or greater.     

Invisible comets on evolutionary track of short-period comets

We systematically surveyed the orbits of short-period (SP) comets that show a large change of perihelion distance (q) between 1–2 AU (visible comets) and 4–5 AU (invisible comets) during 4400 years. The data are taken from Cosmo-DICE (Nakamura and Yoshikawa 1991a), which is a long-term orbital evolution project for SP comets. Recognizing that q is the most critical element for observability of comets, an invisibility factor (f), defined as the ratio of unobservable time span to observable span during 4400 years, is calculated for each of the large-q-change comets. A detection limit for each comet is obtained from the heliocentric distance at discovery and/or the absolute magnitude at recent apparitions. A mean f value for 35 SP comets with 2.9 J (J is the Tisserand's invariant) is found to be 19.8. This implies that for each visible SP comet of this J-range, at every epoch of time, there exist about 20 invisible comets near the capture orbits by Jupiter, under the assumptions of steady-state flux and ergodicity for the SP-comet population.     

Cratering rates on the Galilean satellites

We exploit recent theoretical advances toward the origin and orbital evolution of comets and asteroids to obtain revised estimates for cratering rates in the jovian system. We find that most, probably more than 90%, of the craters on the Galilean satellites are caused by the impact of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). These are comets with short periods, in generally low-inclination orbits, whose dynamics are dominated by Jupiter. Nearly isotropic comets (long period and Halley-type) contribute at the 1-10% level. Trojan asteroids might also be important at the 1-10% level; if they are important, they would be especially important for smaller craters. Main belt asteroids are currently unimportant, as each 20-km crater made on Ganymede implies the disruption of a 200-km diameter parental asteroid, a destruction rate far beyond the resources of today's asteroid belt. Twenty-kilometer diameter craters are made by kilometer-size impactors; such events occur on a Galilean satellite about once in a million years. The paucity of 20-km craters on Europa indicates that its surface is of order 10 Ma. Lightly cratered surfaces on Ganymede are nominally of order 0.5-1.0 Ga. The uncertainty in these estimates is about a factor of five. Callisto is old, probably more than 4 Ga. It is too heavily cratered to be accounted for by the current flux of JFCs. The lack of pronounced apex-antapex asymmetries on Ganymede may be compatible with crater equilibrium, but it is more easily understood as evidence for nonsynchronous rotation of an icy carapace.     

Evidence for an asteroid–comet continuum from simulations of carbonaceous microxenolith dynamical evolution

Abstract– Micrometeoroids with 100 and 200 μm size dominate the zodiacal cloud dust. Such samples can be studied as micrometeorites, after their passage through the Earth atmosphere, or as microxenoliths, i.e., submillimetric meteorite inclusions. Microxenoliths are samples of the zodiacal cloud dust present in the asteroid Main Belt hundreds of millions years ago. Carbonaceous microxenoliths represent the majority of observed microxenoliths. They have been studied in detail in howardites and H chondrites. We investigate the role of carbonaceous asteroids and Jupiter‐family comets as carbonaceous microxenolith parent bodies. The probability of low velocity collisions of asteroidal and cometary micrometeoroids with selected asteroids is computed, starting from the micrometeoroid steady‐state orbital distributions obtained by dynamical simulations. We selected possible parent bodies of howardites (Vesta) and H chondrites (Hebe, Flora, Eunomia, Koronis, Maria) as target asteroids. Estimates of the asteroidal and cometary micrometeoroid mass between 2 and 4 AU from the Sun are used to compute the micrometeoroid mass influx on each target. The results show that all the target asteroids (except Koronis) receive the same amount (within the uncertainties) of asteroidal and cometary micrometeoroids. Therefore, both these populations should be observed among howardite and H chondrite carbonaceous microxenoliths. However, this is not the case: carbonaceous microxenoliths show differences similar to those existing among different groups of carbonaceous chondrites (e.g., CI, CM, CR) but two sharply distinct populations are not observed. Our results and the observations can be reconciled assuming the existence of a continuum of mineralogical and chemical properties between carbonaceous asteroids and comets.     

Orbital evolution of long-period comets I. Trivariate Monte Carlo simulation

The mean orbital evolution of long-period comets for 16 representative initial orbits to short-period comets is calculated by a Monte Carlo method. First, trivariate perturbation distributions of barycentric Kepler energy, total angular momentum, and its z component in single encounters of comets with Jupiter are obtained numerically. Their characteristics are examined in detail and the distributions are found to be simple, symmetric, and easy to handle. Second, utilizing these distributions, we have done trivariate Monte Carlo simulations of the orbital evolution of long-period comets, with special emphasis on high-inclination orbits. About half of the 16 initial orbits are traced up to 5000 returns. For each of these orbits, the mean values of semimajor axis, perihelion distance, and inclination; their standard deviations, survival, and capture rates; as well as time scales of orbital evolution are calculated as functions of return number. Survival rates of the initial orbits with high inclination (～90°) and small perihelion distance (～1–2 AU) have been found to be only two or three times smaller than those of the main-source orbits of short-period comets established quantitatively by Everhart. The time scales of orbitsl evolution of the former, however, are nearly 10 times longer than the latter. There is a general trend that, for smaller perihelion distance, the survival efficiency becomes higher. The results of this paper should be considered a basis for a succeeding paper (Paper II) in which the physical lifetime of comets will be determined, and a comparison with the orbital data will be done.     

Prospects for meteor shower activity in the venusian atmosphere

We investigate the possibility of detectable meteor shower activity in the atmosphere of Venus. We compare the Venus-approaching population of known periodic comets, suspected cometary asteroids and meteor streams with that of the Earth. We find that a similar number of Halley-type comets but a substantially lesser population of Jupiter family comets approach Venus. Parent bodies of prominent meteor showers that might occur at Venus have been determined based on minimum orbital distance. These are: Comets 1P/Halley, parent of the η Aquarid and Orionid streams at the Earth; 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova which currently approaches the venusian orbit to 0.0016 AU; three Halley-type comets (12P/Pons-Brooks, 27P/Crommelin and 122P/de Vico), all intercepting the planet's orbit within a 5-day arc in solar longitude; and Asteroid (3200) Phaethon, parent of the December Geminids at the Earth. In addition, several minor streams and a number of cometary asteroid orbits are found to approach the orbit of Venus sufficiently close to raise the possibility of some activity at that planet. Using an analytical approach described in Adolfsson et al. (Icarus 119 (1996) 144) we show that venusian meteors would be as bright or up to 2 magnitudes brighter than their Earth counterparts and reach maximum luminosity at an altitude range of 100-120, 20-30 km higher than at the Earth, in a predominantly clear region of the atmosphere. We discuss the feasibility of observing venusian showers based on current capabilities and conclude that a downward-looking Venus-orbiting meteor detector would be more suitable for these purposes than Earth-based monitoring. The former would detect a shower of an equivalent Zenithal Hourly Rate of at least several tens of meteors.