Timing of atmospheric precipitation in the Zagros Mountains inferred from a multi-proxy record from Lake Mirabad, Iran

A sediment core 7.2 m long from Lake Mirabad, Iran, was examined for loss-on-ignition, mineralogy, oxygen-isotopic composition of authigenic calcite, and trace-element composition of ostracodes to complement earlier pollen and ostracode-assemblage studies. Pollen, ostracode-inferred lake level, and high Sr/Ca ratios indicate that the early Holocene (10000 to 6500 cal yr BP) was drier than the late Holocene. Low δ¹⁸O values during this interval are interpreted as resulting from winter-dominated precipitation, characteristic of a Mediterranean climate. Increasing δ¹⁸O values after 6500 cal yr BP signal a gradual increase in spring rains, which are present today. A severe 600-yr drought occurred at ca. 5500 cal yr BP, shortly after the transition from pistachio-almond to oak forest. During the late Holocene, two milder droughts occurred at about 1500 and 500 cal yr BP. Within the resolution of the record, no drought is evident during the collapse of the Akkadian empire (4200–3900 cal yr BP). Rather, a decrease in δ¹⁸O values to early-Holocene levels may indicate the return to a Mediterranean precipitation regime.     

Holocene vegetation history in Romanian Subcarpathians

Pollen analysis from a peat core 7.0 m in length, taken from a bog near Bisoca, in a mid-altitude area of the Buzăului Subcarpathian mountains, is used to reconstruct the postglacial vegetation history of the region. The vegetation record, which is supported by twelve ¹⁴C dates, starts at the end of the Late Glacial period. At the Late Glacial/Holocene transition, open vegetation was replaced by forest, suggesting a fast response to climatic warming. The Holocene began with the expansion of Betula, Pinus and Ulmus, followed, after 11,000 cal yr BP, by Fraxinus, Quercus, Tilia and Picea. The rapid expansion of these taxa may be due to their existence in the area during the Late Glacial period. At ca. 9200 cal yr BP, Corylus expanded, reaching a maximum after 7600 cal yr BP. The establishment of Carpinus occurred at ca. 7200 cal yr BP, with a maximum at ca. 5700 cal yr BP. Fagus pollen is regularly recorded after 7800 cal yr BP and became dominant at ca. 2000 cal yr BP. The first indications of human activities appear around 3800 cal yr BP.     

Seasonality change and the third millennium BP rainforest crisis in southern Cameroon (Central Africa)

The third millennium BP crisis of the central African rainforest is not sufficiently understood. The low resolution of most pollen profiles and a large plateau of the calibration curve aggravate the exact dating of the event, and its causal climatic parameters are debated. We present a high-resolution pollen profile from the swamp site Nyabessan in the southern Cameroonian rainforest, covering the period 3100-2300 cal yr BP. Between 3100 and 2500 cal yr BP, the climate was favourable for a regional evergreen forest with Caesalpiniaceae and Lophira and a local Raphia swamp forest. Around 2500/2400 cal yr BP, a significant decrease of mature forest and swamp forest taxa and an increase of pioneers indicate that the rain forest was seriously disturbed and replaced by secondary formations. The dominance of Trema orientalis, a pioneer well adapted to seasonal desiccation, points to a much more accentuated seasonality after 2500 cal yr BP, which seems to be linked to a southwards shift of the ITCZ during the northern hemisphere winter months. We propose that the rain forest crisis between 2500 and 2200 cal BP created favourable conditions for farming and paved the way for a major expansion of Bantu speaking populations.     

Climate forcing due to the 8200 cal yr BP event observed at Early Neolithic sites in the eastern Mediterranean

We explore the hypothesis that the abrupt drainage of Laurentide lakes and associated rapid switch of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation 8200 yr ago had a catastrophic influence on Neolithic civilisation in large parts of southeastern Europe, Anatolia, Cyprus, and the Near East. The event at 8200 cal yr BP is observed in a large number of high-resolution climate proxies in the Northern Hemisphere, and in many cases corresponds to markedly cold and arid conditions. We identify the relevant archaeological levels of major Neolithic settlements in Central Anatolia, Cyprus, Greece and Bulgaria, and examine published stratigraphic, architectural, cultural and geoarchaeological studies for these sites. The specific archaeological events and processes we observe at a number of these sites during the study interval 8400–8000 cal yr BP lead us to refine some previously established Neolithisation models. The introduction of farming to South-East Europe occurs in all study regions (Thrace, Macedonia, Thessaly, Bulgaria) near 8200 cal yr BP. We observe major disruptions of Neolithic cultures in the Levant, North Syria, South-East Anatolia, Central Anatolia and Cyprus, at the same time. We conclude that the 8200 cal yr BP aridity event triggered the spread of early farmers, by different routes, out of West Asia and the Near East into Greece and Bulgaria.     

Palynological evidence for climatic and oceanic variability off NW Africa during the late Holocene

Pollen and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages from core GeoB 9503-5 retrieved from the mud-belt ( 50 m water depth) off the Senegal River mouth have been analyzed to reconstruct short-term palaeoceanographic and palaeoenvironmental changes in subtropical NW Africa during the time interval from ca. 4200 to 1200 cal yr BP. Our study emphasizes significant coeval changes in continental and oceanic environments in and off Senegal and shows that initial dry conditions were followed by a strong and rapid increase in humidity between ca. 2900 and 2500 cal yr BP. After ca. 2500 cal yr BP, the environment slowly became drier again as indicated by slight increases in Sahelian savannah and desert elements in the pollen record. Around ca. 2200 cal yr BP, this relatively dry period ended with periodic pulses of high terrigenous contributions and strong fluctuations in fern spore and river plume dinoflagellate cyst percentages as well as in the fluxes of pollen, dinoflagellate cysts, fresh-water algae and plant cuticles, suggesting “episodic flash flood” events of the Senegal River. The driest phase developed after about 2100 cal yr BP.     

Late Quaternary vegetation and climate history of a perennial river canyon in the Río Salado basin (22°S) of Northern Chile

Plant macrofossils from 33 rodent middens sampled at three sites between 2910 and 3150 m elevation in the main canyon of the Río Salado, northern Chile, yield a unique record of vegetation and climate over the past 22,000 cal yr BP. Presence of low-elevation Prepuna taxa throughout the record suggests that mean annual temperature never cooled by more than 5°C and may have been near-modern at 16,270 cal yr BP. Displacements in the lower limits of Andean steppe and Puna taxa indicate that mean annual rainfall was twice modern at 17,520–16,270 cal yr BP. This pluvial event coincides with infilling of paleolake Tauca on the Bolivian Altiplano, increased ENSO activity inferred from a marine core near Lima, abrupt deglaciation in southern Chile, and Heinrich Event 1. Moderate to large increases in precipitation also occurred at 11,770–9550 (Central Atacama Pluvial Event), 7330–6720, 3490–2320 and at 800 cal yr BP. Desiccation occurred at 14,180, 8910–8640, and 4865 cal yr BP. Compared to other midden sites in the region, early Holocene desiccation seems to have happened progressively earlier farther south. Emerging trends from the cumulative midden record in the central Atacama agree at millennial timescales with improved paleolake chronologies for the Bolivian Altiplano, implying common forcing through changes in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature gradients.     

Late Quaternary vegetation, fire and climate history reconstructed from two cores at Cerro Toledo, Podocarpus National Park, southeastern Ecuadorian Andes

The last ca. 20,000 yr of palaeoenvironmental conditions in Podocarpus National Park in the southeastern Ecuadorian Andes have been reconstructed from two pollen records from Cerro Toledo (04°22'28.6"S, 79°06'41.5"W) at 3150 m and 3110 m elevation. Páramo vegetation with high proportions of Plantago rigida characterised the last glacial maximum (LGM), reflecting cold and wet conditions. The upper forest line was at markedly lower elevations than present. After ca. 16,200 cal yr BP, páramo vegetation decreased slightly while mountain rainforest developed, suggesting rising temperatures. The trend of increasing temperatures and mountain rainforest expansion continued until ca. 8500 cal yr BP, while highest temperatures probably occurred from 9300 to 8500 cal yr BP. From ca. 8500 cal yr BP, páramo vegetation re-expanded with dominance of Poaceae, suggesting a change to cooler conditions. During the late Holocene after ca. 1800 cal yr BP, a decrease in páramo indicates a change to warmer conditions. Anthropogenic impact near the study site is indicated for times after 2300 cal yr BP. The regional environmental history indicates that through time the eastern Andean Cordillera in South Ecuador was influenced by eastern Amazonian climates rather than western Pacific climates.     

Palaeolimnology of Lake Zeribar, Iran, and its climatic implications

Lake Zeribar sediments covering the time period of the last 25,000 years were examined for the contents of seeds, fruits, Characeae, diatoms, and molluscs. Reconstructions of the variations in the lake water level, salinity, and trophy suggest a sequence of climatic changes. Three pronounced stages of low and varying lake-water level occurred ca. 17,700–15,400, 12,600–12,000, and 10,000–6000 cal yr BP. Some water-level changes were correlated with variations in salinity. The most pronounced increase of salinity occurred 17,700–15,700 and 12,600–12,000 cal yr BP, and less distinct ones occurred about 6400–5900 and 2500 cal yr BP. Diatom assemblages indicated a strong increase of lake trophy ca. 20,200 cal yr BP. Between 6000 and 5000 cal yr BP diatoms characteristic of eutrophy increased in core 63J, and at about 3200 cal yr BP a distinct increase in mesotrophic forms occurred in core 70B. The changes in the occurrence of various organisms indicate increased temperatures about 21,000 cal yr BP, between 15,400 and 12,600, about 12,000, and about 11,700 cal yr BP. The reduced occurrence or disappearance of some of them suggest temperature decreases about 17,700–15,400 and 12,600–12,000 cal yr BP.     

A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia

Lacustrine sediments from southeastern Arabia reveal variations in lake level corresponding to changes in the strength and duration of Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) summer rainfall and winter cyclonic rainfall. The late glacial/Holocene transition of the region was characterised by the development of mega-linear dunes. These dunes became stabilised and vegetated during the early Holocene and interdunal lakes formed in response to the incursion of the IOM at approximately 8500 cal yr BP with the development of C3 dominated savanna grasslands. The IOM weakened ca. 6000 cal yr BP with the onset of regional aridity, aeolian sedimentation and dune reactivation and accretion. Despite this reduction in precipitation, the lake was maintained by winter dominated rainfall. There was a shift to drier adapted C4 grasslands across the dune field. Lake sediment geochemical analyses record precipitation minima at 8200, 5000 and 4200 cal yr BP that coincide with Bond events in the North Atlantic. A number of these events correspond with changes in cultural periods, suggesting that climate was a key mechanism affecting human occupation and exploitation of this region.     

Climate and vegetation history from a 14,000-year peatland record, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Analysis of pollen, spores, macrofossils, and lithology of an AMS ¹⁴C-dated core from a subarctic fen on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska reveals changes in vegetation and climate beginning 14,200 cal yr BP. Betula expansion and contraction of herb tundra vegetation characterize the Younger Dryas on the Kenai, suggesting increased winter snowfall concurrent with cool, sunny summers. Remarkable Polypodiaceae (fern) abundance between 11,500 and 8500 cal yr BP implies a significant change in climate. Enhanced peat preservation and the occurrence of wet meadow species suggest high moisture from 11,500 to 10,700 cal yr BP, in contrast to drier conditions in southeastern Alaska; this pattern may indicate an intensification and repositioning of the Aleutian Low (AL). Drier conditions on the Kenai Peninsula from 10,700 to 8500 cal yr BP may signify a weaker AL, but elevated fern abundance may have been sustained by high seasonality with substantial snowfall and enhanced glacial melt. Decreased insolation-induced seasonality resulted in climatic cooling after 8500 cal yr BP, with increased humidity from 8000 to 5000 cal yr BP. A dry interval punctuated by volcanic activity occurred between 5000 and 3500 cal yr BP, followed by cool, moist climate, coincident with Neoglaciation. Tsuga mertensiana expanded after ~ 1500 cal yr BP in response to the shift to cooler conditions.     

Temporal changes in Holocene δ18O records from the northwest and central North Iceland Shelf

The region of north Iceland is highly sensitive climatically owing to its location with respect to atmospheric and oceanographic fronts. In this study we present total carbonate and δ¹⁸O records of benthic and planktic Foraminifera from nine sediment cores from the North Iceland Shelf. The results of this work indicate that the deglaciation of the Vestfirdir Peninsula was completed by 10 200 cal. yr BP. The 8200 cal. yr BP cold event is present only as a minor isotopic event, and seems not to have had much of a cooling effect on the bottom waters of the northwest Iceland shelf. The Holocene maximum warmth, attributed to a stronger North Icelandic Irminger Current, occurred between ca. 7800 and 6200 cal. yr BP. Over the past 4500 cal. yr BP a general cooling trend has occurred on the North Iceland Shelf, and superimposed on this overall cooling trend are a number of oscillations between periods when relatively warmer and cooler waters occupied the shelf. Relatively cooler waters were present at 4200–4000 cal. yr BP, 3200–2900 cal. yr BP, 2500–2350 cal. yr BP and 600–200 cal. yr BP, whereas relatively warmer waters were present on the shelf at 3750–3450 cal. yr BP, 2800–2600 cal. yr BP and 1700–1000 cal. yr BP. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Younger Dryas to mid-Holocene environmental history of the lowlands of NW Transylvania, Romania

Pollen, micro-charcoal and total carbon analyses on sediments from the Turbuta palaeolake, in the Transylvanian Basin of NW Romania, reveal Younger Dryas to mid-Holocene environmental changes. The chronostratigraphy relies on AMS ¹⁴C measurements on organic matter and U/Th TIMS datings of snail shells. Results indicate the presence of Pinus and Betula open woodlands with small populations of Picea, Ulmus, Alnus and Salix before 12,000 cal yr BP. A fairly abrupt replacement of Pinus and Betula by Ulmus-dominated woodlands at ca. 11,900 cal. yr BP likely represents competition effects of vegetation driven by climate warming at the onset of the Holocene. By 11,000 cal yr BP, the woodlands were increasingly diverse and dense with the expansion of Quercus, Fraxinus and Tilia, the establishment of Corylus and the decline of upland herbaceous and shrubs taxa. The marked expansion of Quercus accompanied by Tilia between 10,500 and 8000 cal yr BP could be the result of low effective moisture associated with both low elevation of the site and with regional change towards a drier climate. At 10,000 cal yr BP, Corylus spread across the region, and by 8000 cal yr BP it replaced Quercus as a dominant forest constituent, with only little representation of Picea abies. Carpinus became established around 5500 cal yr BP, but it was only a minor constituent in local woodlands until ca. 5000 cal yr BP. Results from this study also indicate that the woodlands in the lowlands of Turbuta were never closed.     

Peatland development at the arctic tree line (Québec, Canada) influenced by flooding and permafrost

In this study, we documented the Holocene history of a peat plateau at the arctic tree line in northern Québec using stratigraphic and macrofossil analyses to highlight the effects of geomorphic setting in peatland development. Paludification of the site began about 6800 cal yr BP. From 6390 to 4120 cal yr BP, the peatland experienced a series of flooding events. The location of the peatland in a depression bounded by two small lakes likely explains its sensitivity to runoff. The proximity of a large hill bordering the peatland to the south possibly favored the inflow of mineral-laden water. The onset of permafrost aggradation in several parts of the peatland occurred after 3670 cal yr BP. Uplifting of the peatland surface caused by permafrost stopped the flooding. According to radiocarbon dating of the uppermost peat layers, permafrost distribution progressed from the east to the west of the peatland, indicating differential timing for the initiation of permafrost throughout the peatland. Most of the peatland was affected by permafrost growth during the Little Ice Age. Picea mariana macroremains at 6450 cal yr BP indicate that the species was present during the early stages of peatland development, which occurred soon after the sea regression.     

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene precipitation changes in southern Patagonia

Holocene variations in annual precipitation (P_ann) were reconstructed from pollen data from southern Argentinian Patagonia using a transfer function developed based on a weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. The pollen–climate calibration model consisted of 112 surface soil samples and 59 pollen types from the main vegetation units, and modern precipitation values obtained from a global climate database. The performance (r² = 0.517; RMSEP = 126 mm) of the model was comparable or slightly lower than in other comparable pollen–climate models. Fossil pollen data were obtained from a sediment core from Cerro Frias site (50°24'S, 72°42'W) located at the forest-steppe ecotone. Reconstructed P_ann values of about 200 mm suggest dry conditions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (12,500–10,500 cal yr BP). P_ann values were about 300–350 mm from 10,500 to 8000 cal yr BP and increased to 400–500 mm between 8000 and 1000 cal yr BP. An abrupt decrease in P_ann at about 1000 cal yr BP was associated with a Nothofagus decline. The reconstructed P_ann suggests a weakening and southward shift of the westerlies during the early Holocene and intensification, with no major latitudinal shifts, during the mid-Holocene at high latitudes in southern Patagonia.     

Storminess variation during the last 6500 years as reconstructed from an ombrotrophic peat bog in Halland,southwest Sweden

Cores taken from an ombrotrophic peat bog in the coastal zone of Halland, southwest Sweden, were examined for wind transported mineral grains, pollen and humidity indicators. The core covers the period from 6500 cal. yr BP to present. Ombrotrophic conditions existed from ca. 4200 cal. yr BP onwards. Bog surface wetness fluctuated strongly until ca. 3700 cal. yr BP, with an apparent dominance of dry summer conditions from 4800–4500 cal. yr BP. Local wet shifts occurred around 4300, 2800, 2400 and 1500 cal. yr BP, whereas the most recent 600 years of the record show increasingly dry conditions. Mineral grain content, interpreted as aeolian sand influx (ASI), was used as a proxy for (winter) storm frequency and intensity until ca. 1500 cal. yr BP, after which increasing human impact, as reconstructed by pollen analysis, became a second important potential cause for increased sand drift. Strongly increased storminess occurred at 4800, 4200, 2800–2200, 1500, 1100 and 400–50 cal. yr BP, indicating a dominance of cold and stormy winters during these periods. Many of these storm periods apparently coincide with storm events in other sites in southwestern Scandinavia, suggesting that our ASI record reflects a regional scale climatic signal. Furthermore these stormy periods correlate to well‐known cold phases in the North Atlantic region, suggesting a link to large‐scale fluctuations in atmospheric circulation patterns. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiproxy evidence for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem responses during the 8.2 ka cold event as recorded at Højby Sø, Denmark

A sediment succession from Højby Sø, a lake in eastern Denmark, covering the time period 9400–7400 cal yr BP was studied using high-resolution geochemistry, magnetic susceptibility, pollen, macrofossil, diatom, and algal pigment analysis to investigate responses of the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to the 8.2 ka cold event. A reduced pollen production by thermophilous deciduous tree taxa in the period c. 8250–8000 cal yr BP reveal that the forest ecosystem was affected by low temperatures during the summer and winter/early-spring seasons. This finding is consistent with the timing of the 8.2 ka cold event as registered in the Greenland ice cores. At Højby Sø, the climate anomaly appears to have started 200–250 yr earlier than the 8.2 ka cold event as the lake proxy data provide strong evidence for a precipitation-induced distinct increase in catchment soil erosion beginning around 8500 cal yr BP. Alteration of the terrestrial environment then resulted in a major aquatic ecosystem change with nutrient enrichment of the lake and enhanced productivity, which lasted until c. 7900 cal yr BP.     

Climate and ocean variability during the middle and late Holocene recorded in laminated sediments from Alfonso Basin, Gulf of California, Mexico

A laminated sequence (core BAP96-CP 24°38.12′N, 110°33.24′W; 390 m depth) from the Alfonso Basin in Bay of La Paz, southern Gulf of California, contains a record of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes of the past 7900 yr. Radiolarian assemblages and magnetic susceptibility are used as proxies of oceanographic and climatic variability. The records provide a regional scenario of the middle and late Holocene, suggesting two major climatic regimes and several millennial-scale events. Conditions relatively warmer and drier than today occurred from 7700 to 2500 cal yr BP, promoting the intensification of evaporation processes and the prevalence of the Gulf of California water in the Basin. These conditions correlate with strong droughts in the middle Holocene of North America and with minimal incursion of tropical waters into the Gulf of California. Proxies indicate a warm scenario and the dominance of the Equatorial Surface Water in the Alfonso Basin from 2400 to 700 cal yr BP, suggesting the intensification of ENSO cycles. A climatic signal between 1038 and 963 cal yr BP may be correlated with global signal of the “Medieval Warm Period.” Several cooling events are recognized at 5730, 3360, 2700, 1280 and 820 cal yr BP and are associated with intensification of northwest winds leading to upwellings and enhanced productivity in the Basin.     

Pollen evidence for variations in the southern margin of the westerly winds in SW Patagonia over the last 12,600 years

We report pollen and charcoal records from Vega Ñandú ( 51°0′S, 72°45′W), a small mire located near the modern forest-steppe ecotone in Torres del Paine National Park, southern Chile. The record shows an open landscape dominated by low shrubs and herbs between 12,600 and 10,800 cal yr BP, under cold and relatively humid conditions. Nothofagus experienced frequent, large-amplitude oscillations between 10,800 and 6800 cal yr BP, indicating recurrent transitions between shrubland/parkland environments, under warm and highly variable moisture conditions. A sustained increase in Nothofagus started at 6800 cal yr BP, punctuated by step-wise increases at 5100 and 2400 cal yr BP, implying further increases in precipitation. We interpret these results as indicative of variations in the amount of precipitation of westerly origin, with prominent increases at 6800, 5100, and 2400 cal yr BP. These pulses led to peak precipitation regimes during the last two millennia in this part of SW Patagonia. Our data suggest variations in the position and/or strength of the southern margin of the westerlies, most likely linked to variations in the extent and/or persistence of sea ice and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean. Over the last two centuries the record shows a forest decline and expansion of Rumex acetosella, an exotic species indicative of European disturbance.     

A 6000-year record of ecological and hydrological changes from Laguna de la Leche, north coastal Cuba

Laguna de la Leche, north coastal Cuba, is a shallow (≤ 3 m), oligohaline (∼ 2.0-4.5‰) coastal lake surrounded by mangroves and cattail stands. A 227-cm core was studied using loss-on-ignition, pollen, calcareous microfossils, and plant macrofossils. From ∼6200 to ∼ 4800 cal yr BP, the area was an oligohaline lake. The period from ∼ 4800 to ∼ 4200 cal yr BP saw higher water levels and a freshened system; these changes are indicated by an increase in the regional pollen rain, as well as by the presence of charophyte oogonia and an increase in freshwater gastropods (Hydrobiidae). By ∼ 4000 cal yr BP, an open mesohaline lagoon had formed; an increase in salt-tolerant foraminifers suggests that water level increase was driven by relative sea level rise. The initiation of Laguna de la Leche correlates with a shift to wetter conditions as indicated in pollen records from the southeastern United States (e.g., Lake Tulane). This synchronicity suggests that sea level rise caused middle Holocene environmental change region-wide. Two other cores sampled from mangrove swamps in the vicinity of Laguna de la Leche indicate that a major expansion of mangroves was underway by ∼ 1700 cal yr BP.     

Climate variability over the last 9900 cal yr BP from a swamp forest pollen record along the semiarid coast of Chile

We present a fossil pollen analysis from a swamp forest in the semiarid coast of Chile (32°05′S; 71°30′W), at the northern influence zone of southern westerly wind belt. A ∼10,000 cal yr BP (calendar years before 1950) palynological sequence indicates a humid phase characterized by dense swamp forest taxa dated between ∼9900 and 8700 cal yr BP. The presence of pollen-starved sediments with only scant evidence for semiarid vegetation indicates that extreme aridity ensued until ∼5700 cal yr BP. The swamp forest recovered slowly afterwards, helped by a significant increase in moisture at ∼4200 cal yr BP. A new swamp forest contraction suggests that another slightly less intense drought occurred between ∼3000 and 2200 cal yr BP. The swamp forest expansion begins again at ∼2200 cal yr BP, punctuated by a highly variable climate. Comparisons between the record presented here with other records across the region imply major variations in the extent of the southern westerlies during the Holocene. This variability could have been caused either by latitudinal displacements from the present mean position of southern westerlies wind belt or by changes in the intensity of the South Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone, both of which affect winter precipitation in the region.