地震自动速报综合触发系统产出结果评估

收集2015年1月—2020年8月地震自动速报综合触发系统的全部产出结果,选取国内天然地震事件结果共计1863条,与正式速报目录结果进行对比研究。研究结果显示,自动速报系统所产出的地震参数较正式速报目录发震时刻平均偏差约2s,震中位置平均偏差约8km,震源深度平均偏差约9km,震级绝对平均偏差约0.25,偏差均值为自动速报结果较正式速报结果偏大约0.1。到达产出震级标准的漏报地震事件176个,其主要原因为区域台站稀疏、台站分布不均匀、大震或前震尾波干扰等,未发生误报事件。发震时刻、震中位置和震源深度偏差较大事件的分布与漏报事件类似,多发生于台站密度较低、台站分布不均匀和速度模型与实际差异较大的地区。震级偏差主要与地震事件震级大小和震中所在位置有关,对于3.0≤M<5.0的地震事件,产出震级最为稳定,而对于M≥6.0的地震,震级结果可靠性较低;此外,震级偏差的大小与区域分布并无明显关系,但偏差方向具有区域特征。通过对自动速报系统运行情况的统计分析,提出了关于自动速报系统改进与完善的建议,有助于提高自动速报系统的应用效果。     

Parameterization of historical earthquakes in Switzerland

Macroseismic earthquake parameters of historical events have been reassessed in the framework of the update of the Earthquake Catalogue of Switzerland ECOS-09. The Bakun and Wentworth method (Bakun and Wentworth 1997) has been used to assess location, magnitude, and, when possible, focal depth. We apply a two-step procedure. Intensity attenuation is assessed first by fitting a model with a logarithmic and a linear term, using a set of 111 earthquakes. The magnitude range is 3 and 5.8. Then, intensity to magnitude relation is developed. A subset of the 111 events, all having an instrumental moment magnitude, was used to perform this intensity to magnitude calibration. Five final calibration strategies were developed based on different intensity calibration datasets, regionalized or non-regionalized models, and fixed or variable source depth. The final assessment of the macroseismic earthquake parameters is based on an expert judgment procedure, using the results derived from all five strategies, and taking into consideration the historical knowledge available for the particular earthquake. A bootstrap procedure has been applied to assess the uncertainty of parameters. Indicative lower and upper bounds of uncertainty are derived from distributions of location and magnitude for a number of events, obtained through bootstrap sampling of the intensity field and of the single intensity values. The final uncertainties are given in terms of parameter uncertainty classes already used in previous versions of the earthquake catalogue of Switzerland.     

基于W震相技术的全球强震(MW≥6.5)矩心矩张量自动反演系统评估

使用最近构建的虚拟全球地震台网记录的波形数据,采用OpenMP的并行编程技术优化原有算法, 研制了基于W震相技术的全球强震(M_W≥6.5)矩心矩张量自动反演系统.为了评估该系统的准确度和时效性,将离线自动测定的2008年1月—2013年7月全球140次地震(M_W6.5—9.0)的矩心矩张量与全球矩心矩张量工作组(GCMT)的结果进行了比较.结果表明:该系统可准确测定全球M_W≥6.5地震的矩张量,绝大多数地震矩震级与GCMT给出的矩震级呈现出良好的线性趋势,两者之差ΔM_W的标准方差约0.13,ΔM_W位于区间(-0.2,0.2)的地震占总数的96%;地震矩6个分量分别与GCMT相应的结果沿对角线近线性分布,多数地震矩心水平位置与GCMT给出的矩心水平位置比较接近,两者间大圆弧距离位于区间(0,50km)的地震次数占总数的84%;在台站覆盖较均匀的条件下,该系统能够实现震后25—40分钟自动准确测定全球M_W≥6.5地震的矩心矩张量.      

STUDY ON FOCAL DEPTH OF THE MS5.4 CANGWU EARTHQUAKE IN GUANGXI

On July 31th, 2016, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake struck Cangwu Country, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, it was the largest earthquake recorded by Guangxi Seismological Network since it set up. The number of people affected by the earthquake had reached 20 000, and the direct economic losses caused by the earthquake were nearly 100 million Yuan. After the earthquake, USGS provided a global earthquake catalog showing that the focal depth of Cangwu earthquake was about 24.5km. However, the result given by the Global Centroid Moment Tensor showed the focal depth of this earthquake was 15.6km. However, the result obtained by Xu Xiaofeng et al. using CAP method was 5.1km. It was clear that the focal depths of Cangwu earthquake given by different institutions were quite different from each other. However, accurate focal depth of the earthquake has important significance for exploring the tectonic mechanism near the epicenter, so it is necessary to further determine the more accurate depth of the Cangwu earthquake. In order to further accurately determine the focal depth of Cangwu earthquake, we used the global search method for travel-time residual to calculate the focal depth of this earthquake and its error range, based on the regional velocity model, which is a one-dimensional velocity model of the Xianggui tectonic belt produced by the comprehensive geophysical profile. Then, we inverted the focal mechanism of this earthquake with the CAP method. Based on this, the focal depth of Cangwu M_S5.4 earthquake was further determined by the method of the Rayleigh surface wave amplitude spectrum and the sPL phase, respectively. Computed results reveal that the focal depth of this earthquake and its error range from the travel-time residual global search method is about(13±3)km, the focal depth inverted by CAP method is about 10km, the focal depth from sPL phase is about 10km, and the focal depth from Rayleigh surface wave amplitude spectrum is about 9~10km. Finally, we confirmed that the focal depth of Cangwu M_S5.4 earthquake is about 10km, which indicates that this earthquake still occurred in the upper crust. In the case of low network density, the sPL phase and Rayleigh wave amplitude spectrum recorded by only 1 or 2 broadband stations could be used to obtain more accurate focal depth. The focal depth's accuracy of Cangwu M_S5.4 earthquake in the USGS global earthquake catalog has yet to be improved. In the future, we should consider the error of the source parameters when using the USGS global earthquake catalog for other related research.     

全球地震震中数据库及数据格式

全球震中光盘数据库３．０版,向科研单位及所有用户提供地震震中资料。包括地震震中的地理位置,震级大小及震源深度,和发震时间都存贮在光盘地震数据库。通过人机对话方式进行地震数据的存取。     

Updating default depths in the ISC bulletin

The International Seismological Centre (ISC) publishes the definitive global bulletin of earthquake locations. In the ISC bulletin, we aim to obtain a free depth, but often this is not possible. Subsequently, the first option is to obtain a depth derived from depth phases. If depth phases are not available, we then use the reported depth from a reputable local agency. Finally, as a last resort, we set a default depth.In the past, common depths of 10, 33, or multiples of 50 km have been assigned. Assigning a more meaningful default depth, specific to a seismic region will increase the consistency of earthquake locations within the ISC bulletin and allow the ISC to publish better positions and magnitude estimates. It will also improve the association of reported secondary arrivals to corresponding seismic events.We aim to produce a global set of default depths, based on a typical depth for each area, from well-constrained events in the ISC bulletin or where depth could be constrained using a consistent set of depth phase arrivals provided by a number of different reporters.In certain areas, we must resort to using other assumptions. For these cases, we use a global crustal model (Crust2.0) to set default depths to half the thickness of the crust.     

Rapid earthquake focal mechanism inversion using high-rate GPS velometers in sparse network

In this study, we demonstrate an approach for inverting earthquake source parameters based on high-rate global positioning system(GPS) velocity seismograms. The velocity records obtained from single-station GPS velocity solutions with broadcast ephemeris are used directly for earthquake source parameter inversion using the Cut and Paste method, without requiring conversion of the velocity records into displacement records. Taking the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake as an example, GPS velocity records from 10 stations with reasonable azimuthal coverage provide earthquake source parameters very close to those from the Global centroid moment tensor(Global CMT) solution. In sparse network tests, robust source parameters with acceptable bias can be achieved with as few as three stations. When the number of stations is reduced to two, the bias in rake angle becomes appreciable, but the magnitude and strike estimations are still robust. The results of this study demonstrate that rapid and reliable estimation of earthquake source parameters can be obtained from GPS velocity data. These parameters could be used for early earthquake warning and shake map construction, because such GPS velocity records can be obtained in real time.     

Use of Potential Foreshocks to Estimate the Short-term Probability of Large Earthquakes, Tohoku, Japan

This study seeks to construct a hazard function for earthquake probabilities based on potential foreshocks. Earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 and larger that occurred between 1976 and 2000 in an offshore area of the Tohoku region of northeast Japan were selected as events for estimating probabilities. Later occurrences of multiple events and aftershocks were omitted from targets. As a result, a total of 14 earthquakes were employed in the assessment of models. The study volume spans 300 km (East-West) × 660 km (North-South) × 60 km in depth. The probability of a target earthquake occurring at a certain point in time-space depends on the number of small earthquakes that occurred per unit volume in that vicinity. In this study, we assume that the hazard function increases geometrically with the number of potential foreshocks within a constrained space-time window. The parameters for defining potential foreshocks are magnitude, spatial extent and lead time to the point of assessment. The time parameter is studied in ranges of 1 to 5 days (1-day steps), and spatial parameters in 20 to 100 km (20-km steps). The model parameters of the hazard function are determined by the maximum likelihood method. The most effective hazard function examined was the following case: When an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 to 6.5 occurs, the hazard for a large event is increased significantly for one day within a 20 km radius surrounding the earthquake. If two or more such earthquakes are observed, the model expects a 20,000 times greater probability of an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater than in the absence of such events.     

Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

We extend existing branching models for earthquake occurrences by incorporating potentially important estimates of tectonic deformation and by allowing the parameters in the models to vary across different tectonic regimes. We partition the Earth’s surface into five regimes: trenches (including subduction zones and oceanic convergent boundaries and earthquakes in outer rise or overriding plate); fast spreading ridges and oceanic transforms; slow spreading ridges and transforms; active continental zones, and plate interiors (everything not included in the previous categories). Our purpose is to specialize the models to give them the greatest possible predictive power for use in earthquake forecasts. We expected the parameters of the branching models to be significantly different in the various tectonic regimes, because earlier studies (Bird and Kagan in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2380–2399, 2004) found that the magnitude limits and other parameters differed between similar categories. We compiled subsets of the CMT and PDE earthquake catalogs corresponding to each tectonic regime, and optimized the parameters for each, and for the whole Earth, using a maximum likelihood procedure. We also analyzed branching models for California and Nevada using regional catalogs. Our estimates of parameters that can be compared to those of other models were consistent with published results. Examples include the proportion of triggered earthquakes and the exponent describing the temporal decay of triggered earthquakes. We also estimated epicentral location uncertainty and rupture zone size and our results are consistent with independent estimates. Contrary to our expectation, we found no dramatic differences in the branching parameters for the various tectonic regimes. We did find some modest differences between regimes that were robust under changes in earthquake catalog and lower magnitude threshold. Subduction zones have the highest earthquake rates, the largest upper magnitude limit, and the highest proportion of triggered events. Fast spreading ridges have the smallest upper magnitude limit and the lowest proportion of triggered events. The statistical significance of these variations cannot be assessed until methods are developed for estimating confidence limits reliably. Some results apparently depend on arbitrary decisions adopted in the analysis. For example, the proportion of triggered events decreases as the lower magnitude limit is increased, possibly because our procedure for assigning independence probability favors larger earthquakes. In some tests we censored earthquakes occurring near and just after a previous event, to account for the fact that most such earthquakes will be missing from the catalog. Fortunately the branching model parameters were hardly affected, suggesting that the inability to measure immediate aftershocks does not cause a serious estimation bias. We compare our branching model with the ETAS model and discuss the differences in the models parametrization and the results of earthquake catalogs analysis.     

地震视应力及其物理意义的探讨

对NEIC宽频带地震辐射能量目录和哈佛CMT目录,给出全球震级大于5．5级的有能量记录的地震资料进行统计研究。首先,拟合得到全球浅源地震和不同类型地震平均视应力的大小和范围,验证了前人得到的“走滑型视应力大于倾滑型视应力”的结论;其次,对折合能量和地震矩关系分析得到：正断层型地震的折合能量随着地震矩增大而减小,而对于走滑型和逆冲型地震未得到前人给出的明确结论;对主震视应力和余震视应力的分析比较表明,它们在量值上没有规律性,必须要结合实际的地震事件,才能反映出它们之间大小关系的真正物理内涵,因为不同的主震可能对震源区的应力场有不同的影响——造成震源区应力场的应力集中（障碍体模式）,大部分余震的视应力高于主震视应力;或使应力场更加均匀（凹凸体模式）,大部分余震视应力低于主震视应力。这些结论对地震震源理论研究具有一定意义。     

2004年东乌珠穆沁旗地震震源参数研究

利用波形反演方法, 研究并确定了2004年3月24日发生在内蒙古东乌珠穆沁旗与西乌珠穆沁旗交界处地震的震源机制及深度。 近震波形对震源机制有很好的约束, 而远震体波对于震源深度分辨率很高, 因此综合利用了近震和远震波形数据。 对于近震宽频带波形记录, 用CAP方法反演震源机制解。 利用远震直达P波、 pP波和sP波的到时能较好的确定震源深度。 综合利用近震宽频带波形和远震体波波形记录, 反演得出2004年03月24日地震为逆冲型, 震级为M_W5.3。 其两个节面分别为: 节面I的走向、 倾角、 滑动角分别为147°、 22°、 87°, 节面Ⅱ的走向、 倾角、 滑动角分别为 330°、 68°、 91°; 震源深度为(12±2) km, 是一个典型的浅源上地壳地震。 与前震序列对比, 节面Ⅰ是可能的发震构造。     

中国大陆与香港及周围地区的地震目录完全性分析

地震活动性中心Ｇｕｔｅｎｂｅｒｇ－Ｒｉｃｈｔｅｒ关系（ｌｏｇＮ＝ａ－ｂＭ）在确定地震发生率时起着重要作用，实际分析中存在的对Ｇ－Ｒ关系的偏离主要是由于地震目录的不完全性引起：即在低震级端因地震的监测能力有限，在高震级端因大震的稀少导致的统计涨落。     

Analysis of Shallow and Deep Earthquake Doublets in the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec Region

For the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec area and for the period from January 1977 to July 2003, the Harvard CMT catalogue lists 1022 shallow, 410 intermediate and 633 deep earthquakes of moment magnitude from 4.9 to 8.0. The magnitude threshold, above which the catalogue is complete, is 5.3–5.4, and the number of earthquakes of magnitude above this value is 691 for shallow, 329 for intermediate and 476 for deep events, respectively. The proportion of earthquakes associated with doublets and multiplets against the total number of earthquakes is approximately the same in both data sets and therefore all earthquake pairs were considered regardless of their magnitude. We investigated all the pairs of earthquakes that occurred at a centroid distance of less than 40, 60 or 90 km from each other and within a time interval of 200, 300 or 450 days, depending on their magnitude. We found 208 pairs of shallow, 31 of intermediate and 92 of deep events. To ascertain whether these earthquakes in pairs are not connected by chance, the possibility of their occurrence in an uncorrelated Poissonian catalogue was considered. It was assumed that in such a catalogue the inter-event time is exponentially distributed, the earthquake magnitude follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and the distribution of centroid distances between the events in pairs is controlled by its non-parametric kernel estimate. The probability of the appearance of the observed proportion of doublets of shallow earthquakes in the Poissonian catalogue was found to be very low. The low probability of occurrence in a semi-random catalogue, created by randomising centroid locations in the actual data set, also indicates major importance of the distance criterion used for a doublet specification. In general, shallow earthquakes tend to form pairs at shorter distances and within shorter time intervals than deep earthquakes. Both the distance and the time intervals do not depend on the magnitude of involved events. The largest number of pairs of deep earthquakes is observed at a depth of about 600 km, and the proportion of deep events associated with doublets against the number of all events increases with depth. From comparison of the focal mechanism of earthquakes in pairs, measured by the 3-D rotation angle, it follows that deep earthquakes forming pairs have a more diverse focal mechanism than shallow events; the rotation angle for three quarters of shallow pairs and only for about one third of deep pairs is reasonably small. The azimuth between two events forming a doublet is in about 60–65% of cases close to the strike of one of nodal planes of the first or the second event.     

2013年7月22日甘肃岷县-漳县M_S6.6地震震源破裂过程

2013年7月22日,在甘肃岷县漳县交界处发生MS6.6地震,地震震中位置靠近临潭—宕昌断裂.本文通过构建有限断层模型,利用国家强震动台网中心提供的12条强地面运动三分量资料,通过波形反演方法来研究这次地震的震源破裂过程.结果显示这次地震是发生在甘东南地区岷县—宕昌断裂带东段附近的一次MW6.1级逆冲兼具左旋走滑破裂事件,最大滑动量约为80cm.发震断层走向及滑动性质与岷县—宕昌断裂吻合,推断本次地震与东昆仑断裂向北的扩展和推挤密切相关,是岷县—宕昌断裂进一步活动的结果.     

Empirical Global Relations Converting M S and m b to Moment Magnitude

The existence of several magnitude scales used by seismological centers all over the world and the compilation of earthquake catalogs by many authors have rendered globally valid relations connecting magnitude scales a necessity. This would allow the creation of a homogeneous global earthquake catalog, a useful tool for earthquake research. Of special interest is the definition of global relations converting different magnitude scales to the most reliable and useful scale of magnitude, the moment magnitude, M _W. In order to accomplish this, a very large sample of data from international seismological sources (ISC, NEIC, HRVD, etc.) has been collected and processed. The magnitude scales tested against M _W are the surface wave magnitude, M _S, the body wave magnitude, m _b, and the local magnitude, M _L. The moment magnitudes adopted have been taken from the CMT solutions of HRVD and USGS. The data set used in this study contains 20,407 earthquakes, which occurred all over the world during the time period 1.1.1976–31.5.2003, for which moment magnitudes are available. It is shown that well-defined relations hold between M _W and m _b and M _S and that these relations can be reliably used for compiling homogeneous, with respect to magnitude, earthquake catalogs.     

山西地区震源新参数间关系初探

利用“十五”数字化后山西地震台网记录的612次 ML ≥2．0地震,使用中国地震局地震预测研究所推广的中小地震新参数计算软件,计算其中148次事件的震源新参数,对地震矩、矩震级、震源破裂尺度、应力降、拐角频率等参数间的定标关系做初步研究,得出 ML 震级与地震矩、矩震级间存在较好的线性正相关;震级与震源尺度间存在多项式关系;与应力降的对数呈显著正相关,当大于 ML 4．0后,随着震级的增大,释放的应力降略有变缓;与拐角频率的对数呈负相关。     

SEISMIC INTENSITY EVALUATION MODEL IN MEIZOSEISMAL AREA BASED ON FOCAL DEPTH

China is the country with the challenge of severe earthquake disaster. In order to mitigate the disaster and save lives, emergency response and rescue work after an earthquake are deployed and led by the Chinese governments at all level, the effectiveness of which has been proved. In such work, how to quickly evaluate the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is a crucial issue at the early period after the earthquake. It is the foundation to estimate the disaster losses and decide the scale of rescue teams and materials. However, at the early period only a few physical parameters of the earthquake can be acquired and some of them may even be inaccurate. An evaluation model of seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is investigated and presented by statistic method in this study. After an earthquake there are four authoritative parameters officially released by China Earthquake Administration generally within ten minutes:earthquake magnitude (M_S), focal depth, latitude and longitude position, and the occurrence time. They are good candidate input parameters of the evaluation model. We collect the information of 215 historical earthquake occurring in China from 1966 to 2013, including:The four parameters and the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area. Through statistical analysis we find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area has high correlation with the earthquake magnitude (M_S) and the focal depth and then select them as the formal input parameters. After further investigation a generalized linear model is built to fit the relationship between the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area, earthquake magnitude (M_S) and the focal depth. The effectiveness of the model is validated by the Sig value and F value from theoretic perspective. The validation also includes the application of the model in real earthquakes occurring from 2014 to 2017. After the earthquakes, the seismic intensities in meizoseismal area have been quickly estimated and used in the command of national earthquake disaster emergency relief. The applications in real earthquakes get good results. Finally, the robustness of the model is analyzed. We respectively verify the influences of the earthquake magnitude (M_S) and the focal depth and find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is more sensitive to the earthquake magnitude. Under the condition of the same focal depth, when the change of the earthquake magnitude is up to 0.5, the change of the seismic intensity will reach to 1. However, in order to cause same change of the seismic intensity, the difference of the focal depth will be 10 kilometers. Basically, these changes derived from the model meet the situation of historical earthquakes.     

实现地震预测的可能性和地震预测技术的探索方向

建议采用地震预测和地震预报两种含义不同的术语。严格的地震预测必须包括地点、时间、震级3个参数。用实例分析了在现代科学技术条件下预测这3个参数的可能性，认为总体上以一定准确度预测发震地点相对容易些，实现对发震时间和震级的准确预测的可能性较小，除有前震外，多数情况下对大地震作出完整的、精确的短、临预测还较困难。应对准震源和地壳内部过程，以发展观测技术和积累数据为重心，继续坚持地震预测技术的探索。     

相对局部区域震源参数随机不确定性经验关系研究

在进行未来破坏性地震的强地面运动数值模拟时,震源参数选取的准确性对地震动预测的结果影响很大。震源参数的确定存在很多不确定性因素,既包含随机的不确定性因素,又包含认知的不确定性因素。本文在大量地震事件及文献调研的基础上,运用统计学方法对具备随机不确定性特征的震源参数进行统计研究,以震源参数经验公式的形态建立解释其随机性和不确定性的数学模型。为了研究局部地区震源参数的定标关系特征,获得更加适用于局部地震密集区域,尤其是包含中国大陆地区在内的局部区域的震源参数的经验关系,本文从GCMT地震目录中选取了1 700多个M_W≥5.5的地震事件,运用统计学方法研究地震密集地区的震源参数经验关系,包括震级、地震矩、破裂面积等,增加了相对较大的局部范围内凹凸体的地震样本数量,从统计学角度计算更加适合局部区域的震源参数的经验关系。统计结果表明:局部区域震例获得的震源参数的经验关系与不限区域震例获得的经验关系存在差异,尤其是涉及到断层破裂面积、凹凸体相关参数时差异较大,局部区域内震例获得的震源参数的经验关系将更具有代表性。应用本文获得的相对局部区域的经验公式计算未来破坏性地震的强地面运动所需的震源参数时,获得的地震动预测结果将更能体现目标区域真实的地震动特征,进而提高地震动预测结果的可靠性。      

利用近场加速度记录确定近震震源参数的研究

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