An evaluation of two alongshore transport equations with field measurements

The performance of two well-known equations to predict the depth-averaged alongshore suspended sediment flux [Van Rijn, L.C., 1984. Sediment transport, part II: suspended load transport. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 110, 1613–1641; and Bailard, J.A., 1981. An energetics total load sediment transport model for a plane sloping beach. Journal of Geophysical Research 86, 10938–10954] was assessed by comparing predictions with 2306 field estimates based on a vertical stack of three optical backscatter sensors and a single electromagnetic flow meter. The observations were collected at four cross-shore positions on the intertidal beach of Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands, during calm to storm conditions, with the offshore significant wave height peaking at 3.7 m. Measured hydrodynamics were employed in the computations of both models. Also, default parameter values were used without calibration to the data. We found that both models underpredicted the observations. Overall, the Van Rijn model outperformed the Bailard model, with about 70% of the model prediction lying between 1/5 to 5 of the observations under energetic conditions. For the Bailard model this was only about 20%. The performance of the Van Rijn model is, however, sensitive to the wave-related roughness, one of its highly uncertain free parameters. This may allow for an easy calibration when estimates of the depth-averaged alongshore sediment flux are available but may lead to serious errors in situations without data to constrain the predictions. We suspect that the discrepancy between the observations and model predictions is due to an overestimation of the observed fluxes (high turbidity, air bubbles) and an underestimation of the modeled fluxes because of missing physics related primarily to breaking waves.     

On the accurate and efficient calibration of a 3D wave basin

This paper describes the calibration procedure adopted for the new 3D wave basin located in the Hydrodynamics Laboratory at Imperial College London. Unlike traditional calibrations, based on observations of regular wave trains, the method described herein uses a focused wave approach. Such waves, produced by the constructive interference of freely propagating wave components, have led to a number of recent advances in theoretical wave modelling in which it was essential to know the underlying linear components. In the context of a laboratory study, similar advantages can be realised provided the linear wave components generated by the wave paddles are well defined. This, in turn, can only be achieved if the calibration is sufficiently accurate. The current study provides a calibration based upon a realistic JONSWAP spectrum, describes the details of the methodology employed, and highlights how the application of focused wave techniques eliminates spurious calibration effects due to unwanted reflections from the boundaries of the basin. The final calibration is verified through the generation of test cases, involving linear and nonlinear, unidirectional and directionally spread waves. These confirm both the accuracy of the calibration and the suitability of the methods employed.     

Identification-based simplified model of large container ships using support vector machines and artificial bee colony algorithm

The 6 degrees of freedom (DOF) model with a high degree of complexity for capturing ship dynamics is generally able to track the nonlinear and coupling dynamics of ships. However, the 6 DOF model makes challenges in estimating model coefficients and designing the model-based control. Therefore, simplified ship dynamic models within allowed accuracy are essential. This paper simplified the 6 DOF nonlinear dynamic model of ships into two decoupled models including the speed model and the steering model through reasonable assumptions. Those models were tested through maneuvering simulations of a container ship with a 4 DOF dynamic model. Support vector machines (SVM) optimized by the artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) was used to identify parameters of speed and steering models by analyzing the rudder angle, propeller shaft speed, surge and sway velocities, and yaw rate from simulated data extracted from a series of maneuvers made by the container ship. Comparisons with the first order linear and nonlinear Nomoto models show that the simplified nonlinear steering model can capture more complicated dynamics and performs better. Additionally, comparisons among three different parameter identification methods demonstrate similar identification results but the different performance involving the applicability and effectiveness. SVM optimized by ABC is relatively convenient and effective for parameter identification of ship simplified dynamic models.     

基于最优TS评分和频率匹配的江苏近海风速订正

近海风速预报在沿海防灾减灾、航运安全、风能评估等方面具有重要应用。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数值预报(ECMWF)数据,将最优TS评分(OTS)与频率匹配(FMM)两种方法应用于江苏近海风速预报订正,对比了两种订正方法的优缺点,分析了不同时间训练样本量以及空间站点观测资料数量对订正效果的影响。结果表明:在相同长度的训练期下,风速等级越小,时间训练期样本越多,预报订正值越稳定;对于7级以上高风速等级的预报,OTS与FMM的TS评分差异不大,但FMM订正更加稳定且频率偏差(BIAS)更接近1;扩充站点观测资料可有效提升预报订正性能;对于7级以上灾害性大风,最佳的订正方案是采用FMM方法结合全年时间训练样本和扩充的站点观测资料。此外,本文还对比了不同风速情形下,订正前后BIAS和TS评分对于时间训练样本量、空间站点观测数量以及订正方法 (OTS和FMM)的敏感性的相对大小。     

Modal Parameters Identification of A Real Offshore Platform From the Response Excited by Natural Ice Loading

This paper investigates the possibility of utilizing response from natural ice loading for modal parameter identification of real offshore platforms. The test platform is the JZ20-2 MUQ jacket platform located in the Liaodong Bay, China. A field experiment is carried out in winter season, as the platform is excited by floating ices. The feasibility is demonstrated by the acceleration response of two different segments. By the SSI-data method, the modal frequencies and damping ratios of four structural modes can be successfully identified from both segments.The estimated information from both segments is almost identical, which demonstrates that the modal identification is trustworthy. Furthermore, by taking the Jacket platform as a benchmark, the numerical performance of five popular time-domain EMA methods is systematically compared from different viewpoints. The comparisons are categorized as:(1) stochastic methods versus deterministic methods;(2) high-order methods versus low-order methods;(3) data-driven versus covariance-driven stochastic subspace identification methods.     

Using the ensemble Kalman filter to estimate multiplicative model parameters

This paper proposes a simple approach to estimating multiplicative model parameters using the ensemble square root filter. The basic idea, following previous studies, is to augment the state vector by the model parameters. While some success with this approach has been reported if the model parameters enter as additive terms in the tendency equations, this approach is problematic if the model parameters are multiplied by the state variables. The reason for this difficulty is that multiplicative parameters change the dynamical properties of the model, and in particular can cause the model to become dynamically unstable. This paper shows that model instability can be avoided if the usual persistence model for parameter update is replaced by a temporally smoothed version of the update model. In addition, the augmentation approach can be interpreted as two simultaneously decoupled ensemble Kalman filters for the model state and the parameter state, respectively. Implementation of the parameter estimation does not require changing the data assimilation algorithm—it just has to be supplemented by a parameter estimation step that is similar to the state estimation step. Covariance localization is found to be necessary not only for the model state, but also for augmented model parameters, if they are spatially dependent. The new formulation is illustrated with the Lorenz-96 model and shown to be capable of estimating additive and multiplicative model parameters, as well as the state, under relatively challenging conditions (e.g. using 20 observations to estimate 120 unknown variables).     

Planar flow model identification for improved navigation of small AUVs

Motivated by the desire to improve the navigation performance of small autonomous underwater vehicles, we seek simple methods for modeling the local flow that affects the vehicle's trajectory. We propose a low-complexity, planar flow field model that consists of a uniform flow component and a singular flow component. Assuming this simplified flow field model, we develop identification algorithms that can be performed quickly using small, sparse data sets collected by a platoon of vehicles. The basic approach involves estimating the uniform flow component, localizing an assumed flow singularity, and identifying the parameters which characterize the singular flow. In order to identify the singular flow component, we propose a least squares and a constrained least squares approach. In the latter case, the minimization is constrained to preserve the average divergence and circulation of the measured flow. Preserving divergence and circulation predictably results in a larger overall error because it eliminates two free model parameters, but it produces a flow model which more realistically captures the flow in the larger region of the measurement points. Numerical simulations and an initial experiment illustrate the parameter identification process as well as the benefits of incorporating a flow field model for vehicle navigation.     

基于计算机视觉的头足类角质颚特征研究Ⅱ:形态学参数测量

角质颚形态被广泛应用于头足类种类鉴定与种群判别,基于游标卡尺的手动径向测量是获取角质颚形态参数最常用的方法.本文提出一种利用计算机视觉提取角质颚形态参数的方法,首先通过MATLAB编程提取角质颚特征点及空间坐标,然后计算特征点间的空间距离,最后将提取的角质颚形态学参数值与手动径向测量的结果进行比较.研究结果表明:利用两...     

总体最小二乘法在浮游植物色素吸收系数模型估算中的应用

采用常规最小二乘法(LS)和总体最小二乘法(TLS)对浮游植物色素吸收系数与叶绿素a浓度之间的关系进行了研究。利用2003-2012年6个航次243组实测数据,建立了LS和TLS模型,应用模型估算典型波段的色素吸收系数值,并对两种模型进行了验证。采用平均绝对百分误差和均方根误差两种方法进行模型效果评估,结果显示,两种评估方法均能很好地说明,在400～700 nm光谱范围内,TLS拟合结果优于LS拟合结果。总体最小二乘法在综合考虑了参数误差和测量误差的情况下,拟合结果精度更高,更符合实际情况,估算结果的准确性要优于常规最小二乘法。     

Modeling and identification of open-frame variable configurationunmanned underwater vehicles

A lumped parameter model of open-frame unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV's) including the effects of propeller-hull and propeller-propeller interactions is presented. The identification of the model parameters consists of a least squares method using only on-board sensor data without requiring any towing tank tests. The identification scheme is based on separate tests for the estimation of drag and thruster installation coefficients, taking into account propeller-hull and propeller-propeller effects first and inertia parameters subsequently. The scheme has been experimentally implemented on ROMEO, the latest UUV developed by CNR-IAN. Experimental results show both the effectiveness of the proposed method and the relevance of the propeller-hull and propeller-propeller interactions that are usually neglected in standard UUV models     

SARAL/AltiKa Absolute Calibration from the Multi-Mission Corsica Facilities

The geodetic Corsica site was set up in 1998 in order to perform altimeter calibration of the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) mission and subsequently, Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2. The scope of the site was widened in 2005 in order to undertake the calibration of the Envisat mission and most recently of SARAL/AltiKa. Here we present the first results from the latter mission using both indirect and direct calibration/validation approaches. The indirect approach utilizes a coastal tide gauge and, as a consequence, the altimeter derived sea surface height (SSH) needs to be corrected for the geoid slope. The direct approach utilizes a novel GPS-based system deployed offshore under the satellite ground track that permits a direct comparison with the altimeter derived SSH. The advantages and disadvantages of both systems (GPS-based and tide gauges) and methods (direct or indirect) will be described and discussed. Our results for O/IGD-R data show a very good consistency for these three kinds of products: their derived absolute SSH biases are consistent within 17 mm and their associated standard deviation ranges from 31 to 35 mm. The AltiKa absolute SSH bias derived from GPS-zodiac measurement using the direct method is ?54 ±10 mm based on the first 13 cycles.     

First Calibration Results for the SARAL/AltiKa Altimetric Mission Using the Gavdos Permanent Facilities

This work presents the first calibration results for the SARAL/AltiKa altimetric mission using the Gavdos permanent calibration facilities. The results cover one year of altimetric observations from April 2013 to March 2014 and include 11 calibration values for the altimeter bias. The reference ascending orbit No. 571 of SARAL/AltiKa has been used for this altimeter assessment. This satellite pass is coming from south and nears Gavdos, where it finally passes through its west coastal tip, only 6 km off the main calibration location. The selected calibration regions in the south sea of Gavdos range from about 8 km to 20 km south off the point of closest approach. Several reference surfaces have been chosen for this altimeter evaluation based on gravimetric, but detailed regional geoid, as well as combination of it with other altimetric models.

Based on these observations and the gravimetric geoid model, the altimeter bias for the SARAL/AltiKa is determined as mean value of ?46mm ±10mm, and a median of ?42 mm ±10 mm, using GDR-T data at 40 Hz rate. A preliminary cross-over analysis of the sea surface heights at a location south of Gavdos showed that SARAL/AltiKa measure less than Jason-2 by 4.6 cm. These bias values are consistent with those provided by Corsica, Harvest, and Karavatti Cal/Val sites. The wet troposphere and the ionosphere delay values of satellite altimetric measurements are also compared against in-situ observations (?5 mm difference in wet troposphere and almost the same for the ionosphere) determined by a local array of permanent GNSS receivers, and meteorological sensors.     

Enhanced estimation of sonobuoy trajectories by velocity reconstruction with near-surface drifters

An investigation to improve trajectory prediction using Lagrangian data is presented. The velocity field of a data assimilating model, EAS-16, is corrected using drifter observations taken during an experiment off Taiwan. The results are tested using another independent Lagrangian data set provided by sonobuoys launched in the same area. The latter have instrument chains that extend well into the water column. Consequently the corrected model velocities were projected into the water column in order to calculate sonobuoy trajectories. The drifter and sonobuoy trajectories both show two distinct regimes in the considered area of approximately 1/2° square. One regime is dominated by shelf dynamics, the other by meandering of the Kuroshio, with a sharp boundary dividing the two. These two regimes are not reproduced by the trajectories of the EAS-16 model. When the drifter data are blended with the model velocities, synthetic sonobuoy trajectories track the observed ones much better, and the two regimes are clearly depicted. Two different methods for the velocity reconstruction are tested. One is based on a variational approach and the other on a normal mode decomposition. Both methods show qualitatively similar improvements in the prediction of sonobuoys trajectories, with a quantitative improvement in the total rms error of approximately 50% and 25%, respectively.     

Tikhonov正则化法在重力场最小二乘配置逼近理论中的应用

最小二乘配置法由于其能融合不同种类重力观测数据进行局部重力场逼近的特性而受到广泛关注,但最小二乘配置结果的不稳定严重影响该方法的推广应用。 基于对重力观测量协方差矩阵的谱分解,分析出该协方差矩阵存在病态性,协方差矩阵的求逆过程是信号放大的非平稳过程,微小的观测误差会被协方差矩阵的小奇异值放大,从而导致配置结果的不稳定且精度偏低。 引入 Tikhonov 正则化算法,通过 L 曲线法选择正则化参数,利用正则化参数修正重力观测量协方差矩阵的小奇异值,能抑制其对观测误差的放大影响。 通过以 EGM2008 重力场模型分别计算的山区、丘陵和海域重力异常作为基础数据确定相应区域大地水准面的实验,验证了本文算法的有效性。     

海洋生态系统模型中参数空间变化的伴随法反演研究

以气候耦合模式FOAM(Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model)的气候态为背景场,基于参数的空间分布,定量地研究通过伴随同化方法反演空间变化的参数的能力,探讨影响反演结果的主要因素。通过孪生数值实验同化浮游植物资料,发现在单独反演1个空间变化的参数时,两种给定的参数空间变化都可以被很好地反演出来,参数的平均相对误差在4%以内,说明通过伴随同化方法可以有效地反演出空间变化的参数;而当同时反演作为控制变量的五个参数时,各参数变化趋势的搭配对反演结果影响很大,只有当这种搭配与模型中影响浮游植物生物量变化的生态机制一致时,5个参数才能较准确地得到反演。同化含有10%随机误差的观测数据对反演结果的影响不大,进一步说明了利用伴随同化方法反演参数空间变化的有效性。     

基于高分辨率再分析海流数据的三种涡旋识别方法在南海的评估

本文基于南海11 a逐日高分辨率再分析海流数据,利用三种涡旋识别方法——缠绕角（Winding Angle,WA）法、速度矢量几何（Vector Geometry,VG）法和OW (Okubo Weiss)参数法对南海中尺度涡进行识别和追踪,对比了三种方法对中尺度涡的探测能力,并分析了在高分辨率再分析产品中的适用性。研究表明,产品空间分辨率的提高能够放大OW方法的W参数噪声,使该方法存在涡旋过量检测和涡旋分割现象,导致识别的涡旋数量偏多、半径偏小,涡旋平均成功探测率最低（76.2%）;与OW方法相比,WA方法在一定程度上降低了涡旋过量探测率和漏判率,涡旋平均成功探测率提高至85.1%,但涡旋识别时间较长;与前两种方法相比,VG方法的涡旋平均成功探测率可达93.2%,综合评估参数（过量探测率×漏判率÷成功探测率）优势显著（4.5%）,且计算高效。因此,在基于高分辨率再分析产品进行中尺度涡识别时,VG方法具有更加合理的涡旋探测结果和更强的适用性。     

浮体自由衰减运动阻尼识别方法误差分析

讨论了使用Froude法和Faltinsen法识别线性和非线性阻尼系数时的系统误差。通过回顾两种方法的推导过程,论证了方法的内在假设,并量化两种方法的系统误差。为减少识别过程误差,文中提出了直接积分法,并依据数值与试验数据,讨论了3种识别方法识别结果。结果表明,Froude法相比于Faltinsen法能更好地预报线性和非线性阻尼系数。对于低阻尼浮体问题,Froude法和Faltinsen法可以给出相对准确的预测,而对于强阻尼浮体问题,Froude法与Faltinsen法在确定的线性和非线性阻尼系数中会给出大于5%的系统误差,而直接积分法展示了较高的识别精度。     

Three-Dimensional Geographically Weighted Inverse Regression (3GWR) Model for Satellite Derived Bathymetry Using Sentinel-2 Observations

Current trends of development of satellite derived bathymetry (SDB) models rely on applying calibration techniques including analytical approaches, neuro-fuzzy systems, regression optimization and others. In most of the cases, the SDB models are calibrated and verified for test sites, that provide favorable conditions for the remote derivation of bathymetry such as high water clarity, homogenous bottom type, low amount of sediment in the water and other factors. In this paper, a novel 3-dimensional geographical weighted regression (3GWR) SDB technique is presented, it binds together methods already presented in other studies, the geographically weighted local regression (GWR) model, with depth dependent inverse optimization. The proposed SDB model was calibrated and verified on a relatively difficult test site of the South Baltic near-shore areas with the use of multispectral observations acquired by a recently launched Sentinel-2 satellite observation system. By conducted experiments, it was shown that the proposed SDB model is capable of obtaining satisfactory results of RMSE ranging from 0.88 to 1.23[m] depending on the observation and can derive bathymetry for depths up to 12m. It was also shown, that the proposed approach may be used operationally, for instance, in the continuous assessment of temporal bathymetry changes, for areas important in the context of ensuring local maritime safety.     

双星串飞编队测高模式下高度计定标方案构想

针对新型双星串飞编队测高模式下高度计定标需求,提出了融合绝对定标与相对定标的综合定标方案构想。梳理了当前国际上主流的绝对定标方法,根据编队模式常规任务阶段的卫星轨道特点,提出了在常规长回归周期轨道之外增加天回归定标轨道的建议,在此前提下,给出了两种轨道阶段的定标方案建议,即:在定标任务阶段,绝对定标以验潮站法为主、GNSS浮标法和锚泊阵列法为辅;在常规任务轨道阶段,使用全球海域测量数据进行相对定标,绝对定标可选择适当海域结合GNSS浮标法和验潮站法实施。     

A two-stage inflation method in parameter estimation to com-pensate for constant parameter evolution in Community Earth System Model

Parameter estimation is defined as the process to adjust or optimize the model parameter using observations. A long-term problem in ensemble-based parameter estimation methods is that the parameters are assumed to be constant during model integration. This assumption will cause underestimation of parameter ensemble spread,such that the parameter ensemble tends to collapse before an optimal solution is found. In this work, a two-stage inflation method is developed for parameter estimation, which ...