The simulation of the Asian summer monsoon by general circulation models

Summary The monsoon simulations of four general circulation models are illustrated. Additional results from the Meteorological Office model showing factors that are important in determining its simulation are presented. The large-scale flow patterns of all the models reproduce the large-scale flow fairly realistically, but more detailed characteristics and, in particular, the rainfall, are poorly represented.     

Some aspects of the life history,structure and movement of monsoon depressions

Summary Monsoon depression is one of the most important synoptic scale disturbances on the quasi-stationary planetary scale monsoon trough over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (June to September). Salient features of the climatology of the depressions with regard to frequency of cyclogenesis, life expectancy, horizontal scale and tracks are discussed. Rainfall aspects of the depressions are discussed in some detail and the role of local, dynamical and sub-synoptic scale factors are brought out. Work done on the life history such as formation, intensification and maintenance of depressions has been reviewed based on synoptical and theoretical approaches. Structure of the depression based on composited, synoptical and dynamical studies is discussed. Wind circulation, thermal and moisture patterns, vertical motion field, vorticity budget etc., of a recent case study are brought out in some detail. The problem of movement of the depression against the low level basic westerly wind is briefly discussed and the results of several numerical and climatological prediction models are presented.     

Hemispheric simulation of the Asian summer monsoon

A three-level, -plane, filtered model is used to simulate the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. A time-averaged initial state, devoid of sub-planetary scale waves, is integrated through 30 days on a 5° latitude-longitude grid. Day 25 through day 30 integrations are then repeated on a 2.5° grid. The planetary-scale waves are forced by time-independent, spatially varying diabatic heating. Energy is extracted via internal and surface frictional processes. Orography is excluded to simplify synoptic-scale energy sources.During integration the model energy first increases, but stabilizes near day 10. Subsequent flow patterns closely resemble the hemisphere summer monsoon. Climatological features remain quasi-stationary. At 200 mb high pressure dominates the land area, large-scale troughs are found over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the easterly jet forms south of Asia, and subtropical jets develop in the westerlies. At 800 mb subtropical highs dominate the oceans and the monsoon trough develops over the Asian land mass. The planetary scales at all levels develop a realistic cellular structure from the passage of transient synoptic-scale features, e.g., a baroclinic cyclone track develops near 55°N and westward propagating waves form in the easterlies.Barotropic redistribution of kinetic energy is examined over a low-latitude zonal strip using a Fourier wave-space. In contrast to higher latitudes where the zonal flow and both longer and shorter waves are fed by barotropic energy redistribution from the baroclinically unstable wavelengths, the low-latitude waves have a planetary-scale kinetic energy source. Wave numbers 1 and 2 maintain both the zonal flow and all shorter scales via barotropic transfers. Transient and standing wave processes are examined individually and in combination.Wave energy accumulates at wave numbers 7 and 8 at 200 mb and at wave number 11 in the lower troposphere. The 800-mb waves are thermally indirect and in the mean they give energy to the zonal flow. These characteristics agree with atmospheric observation. The energy source for these waves is the three wave barotropic transfer. The implications of examining barotropic processes in a Fourier wave-space, vice the more common approach of separating the flow into a mean plus a deviation are discussed.     

The south to north progression of rainfall anomalies across India during the summer monsoon season

The low frequency spatio-temporal intraseasonal evolution of monsoon rainfall over India is studied by considering the pentad rainfall averages taken over 2.5° wide and 5.0° long blocks lying across the central longitudinal and latitudinal transacts. The time-latitude cross sections show south to north progressions of rainfall anomalies with a recurrence period of about 40 days. The progressions show considerable inter-annual and intra-seasonal variation in frequency, amplitude and rate of progression. The extended empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that the first two most important functions correspond to this northward progression of rain anomalies recurring after an interval of about 40 days. The rate of progression of anomalies is about 0.5° Lat./day. The time-longitude cross sections show the movement of rainfall anomalies towards both directions east and the west, with slight preference towards the east. The importance of these signals in rainfall forecasting is foreseen.     

The possible influence of solar activity on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall （ISMR） plays an important role in the climate system of South Asia. Recently, studies about ISMR variations have been going into more depth. In this present paper, we mainly use the Scargle periodogram and wavelet transform methods to study the periodicity of ISMR changes between 1871 and 2004 and review the possible influence of solar activity on the rainfall. Analysis results show complicated ISMR variations have periodicities with remarkable time-variable characteristics. Investigating a possible connection between the rainfall and solar variations, we believe that solar activity affects the ISMR variations to some extent.     

太阳活动对印度夏季风降水的可能影响

印度夏季风降水在南亚气候系统中是一个非常重要的内容,近年来对它的研究日益受到人们的重视.本文主要结合Scargle周期图和小波分析的方法研究了1871-2004年间该降水变化的周期性.结果表明,该降水变化非常复杂,其周期性波动具有明显的时变特征.进一步考察了印度夏季风降水与太阳活动的可能关联后,作者认为太阳活动在一定程度上影响印度的夏季风降水.     

Study on the association of green house gas (CO2) with monsoon rainfall using AIRS and TRMM satellite observations

Monsoon water cycle is the lifeline to over 60 per cent of the world’s population. Throughout history, the monsoon-related calamities of droughts and floods have determined the life pattern of people. The association of Green House Gases (GHGs) particularly Carbon dioxide (CO₂) with monsoon has been greatly debated amongst the scientific community in the past. The effect of CO₂ on the monsoon rainfall over the Indian–Indonesian region (8–30°N, 65°–100°E) is being investigated using satellite data. The correlation coefficient (R_xy) between CO₂ and monsoon is analysed. The R_xy is not significantly positive over a greater part of the study region, except a few regions. The inter-annual anomalies of CO₂ is identified for playing a secondary role to influencing monsoon while other phenomenon like ENSO might be exerting a much greater influence.     

Application of Fourier series in managing the seasonality of convective and monsoon rainfall

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the performance of Fourier series in representing seasonal variations of the tropical rainfall process in Malaysia. Fourier series are incorporated into a spatial-temporal stochastic model in an attempt to make the model parsimonious and, at the same time, capture the annual variation of rainfall distribution. In view of Malaysia’s main rainfall regime, the model is individually fitted for two regions with distinctive rainfall profiles: one being an urban area receiving rainfall from convective activities whilst the other receives rainfall from monsoonal activities. Since both regions are susceptible to floods, the study focuses on the rainfall process at fine resolution. Fourier series equations are developed to represent the model’s parameters to describe their annual periodicity. The number of significant harmonics for each parameter is determined by inspecting the cumulative fraction of total variance explained by the significant harmonics. Results reveal that the number of significant harmonics assigned for the parameters is slightly higher in the region with monsoonal rains. The overall simulation results show that the proposed model is capable of generating tropical rainfall series from convective and monsoonal activities.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor K. Hamed     

Effects of a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns on the summer monsoon circulation: Experiments with the NCAR general circulation model

The time mean response of the summer monsoon circulation, as simulated by the 2.5° latitude-longitude resolution, July version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), to a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns is examined. In separate experiments, prescribed changes in surface temperature are imposed in the Western Arabian Sea, the Eastern Arbian Sea or the Central Indian Ocean. The influence of these anomaly patterns on the simulated summer monsoon circulation is evaluated in terms of the geographical distribution of the prescribed change response for any field of interest. This response is defined as the grid point difference between a 30-day mean from a prescribed change experiment and the ensemble average of the 30-day means from the control population for which the same set of climatological ocean surface temperatures are used in each simulation. The statistical significance of such a prescribed change response is estimated by relating the normalized response (defined as the ratio of the prescribed change response to the standard deviation of 30-day means as estimated from the finite sample of control cases) to the classical Student'st-statistic. Using this methodology, the most prominent and statistically significant features of the model's response are increased vertical velocity and precipitation over warm anomalies and typically decreased vertical velocity and precipitation in some preferred region adjacent to the prescribed change region. In the case of cold anomalies, these changes are of opposite sign. However, none of the imposed anomaly patterns produces substantial or statistically significant precipitation changes over large areas of the Indian sub-continent. The only evidence of a major nonlocal effect is found in the experiment with a large positive anomaly (+3°C) in the Central Indian Ocean. In this instance, vertical velocity and precipitation are reduced over Malaysia and a large area of the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. Thus, while these anomaly experiments produce only a local response (for the most part), it is hoped, as one of the purposes of the planned Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), that the necessary data will be provided to produce detailed empirical evidence on the extent to which Indian Ocean surface temperature anomalies correlate with precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent—a correlation which generally does not appear in these GCM results.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号

本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据.结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500 hPa高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区.另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区).公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500 hPa高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向.对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30°N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30°N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30°N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区.南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期明显西移/南退.总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些.这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础.     

The isotopic signature of monsoon conditions,cloud modes,and rainfall type

This work provides a comprehensive physically based framework for the interpretation of the north Australian rainfall stable isotope record (δ¹⁸O and δ²H). Until now, interpretations mainly relied on statistical relationships between rainfall amount and isotopic values on monthly timescales. Here, we use multiseason daily rainfall stable isotope and high resolution (10 min) ground‐based C‐band polarimetric radar data and show that the five weather types (monsoon regimes) that constitute the Australian wet season each have a characteristic isotope ratio. The data suggest that this is not only due to changes in regional rainfall amount during these regimes but, more importantly, is due to different rain and cloud types that are associated with the large scale circulation regimes. Negative (positive) isotope anomalies occurred when stratiform rainfall fractions were large (small) and the horizontal extent of raining areas were largest (smallest). Intense, yet isolated, convective conditions were associated with enriched isotope values whereas more depleted isotope values were observed when convection was widespread but less intense. This means that isotopic proxy records may record the frequency of which these typical wet season regimes occur. Positive anomalies in paleoclimatic records are most likely associated with periods where continental convection dominates and convection is sea‐breeze forced. Negative anomalies may be interpreted as periods when the monsoon trough is active, convection is of the oceanic type, less electric, and stratiform areas are wide spread. This connection between variability of rainfall isotope anomalies and the intrinsic properties of convection and its large‐scale environment has important implications for all fields of research that use rainfall stable isotopes.     

欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号

本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据.结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500 hPa高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区.另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区).公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500 hPa高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向.对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30°N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30°N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30°N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区.南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期明显西移/南退.总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些.这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础.     

Application of a stochastic model to the frequency and duration of monsoon rainfall

The paper deals with an application of a stochastic model to the frequency and duration of precipitation events. With the aid of the model, the magnitudes ofmth highest rainfall amount in 24 hours' duration with 97.5% probability are obtained for various climatic regimes over a tropical monsoon region. There is good agreement between them-day minimum rainfall estimated through the model and the observed value. The model satisfactorily explains the frequency of the extreme rainfall event.     

青藏高原蒸散年际变化及其对西风和季风环流的响应

在评估4种蒸散格点资料（GLDAS,GLEAM,MERRA-2,CRET）在青藏高原适用性的基础上,以精度最高的CRET（R²为0.83,RMSE为14.76 mm）及同期气象环境数据,在年际尺度上分析了青藏高原蒸散变化特征及其受大尺度西风和季风环流的影响.结果表明,青藏高原年平均蒸散为414.2±18.32 mm,具有明显的年际变率和变化趋势,且区域（西风区、季风区和过渡区）间差异明显.蒸散年际变化与西风和季风环流强弱的年际变化密切相关,且季风和西风对蒸散的影响存在显著的区域差异.西风和季风通过调节局地气候环境因子影响蒸散：土壤湿度、归一化植被指数（NDVI）和风速三个局地气候环境要素是青藏高原蒸散主要调控因子,蒸散与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,与风速在高原西部呈显著负相关、在高原东部呈显著正相关;研究WYI（Webster-Yang Index）和WI（Westerly Index）与影响蒸散的主导气候环境因子的关系发现,WYI与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,且WYI与NDVI的相关系数在高原中部和南部较大,使得WYI对蒸散影响在中部分过渡区和南部季风区较大,WI也与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,但WI与NDVI的相关系数在中部和北部较大,WI对蒸散影响在中部过渡区和北部西风区较大,同时,WI与风速在大部分高原显著相关,WI在高原东部通过风速对蒸散变化具有正贡献,使得季风区东部蒸散年际变化也受WI影响,最终使得WI对蒸散的影响在除季风区西部以外的区域较大.该研究结果可加深认识青藏高原水循环变化及其机理,为区域水资源和生态系统管理提供科学依据.

     

南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系

本文对长江中下游夏季旱涝年前期（3、4、5月的季节平均）和同期（6、7、8月的季节平均）的南半球环流作对比分析,探讨南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系. 结果表明前期和同期南半球环流均有显著差异,春季南极涛动对长江中下游旱涝的影响较夏季显著,南半球副热带高压在春、夏两季中有很好季节持续性. 因此,春季南半球环流异常可以作为长江中下游夏季旱涝主要短期气候预测因子. 南、北半球中高纬环流相互作用是长江中下游夏季降水的一个重要因素,其可能的联系机制是从南半球高纬到北半球东亚沿岸经向分布的正压遥相关. 研究中还发现在长江中下游的涝年,整个对流层中南半球春、夏两季有持续增温,这说明了南北半球的温度梯度减弱也是东亚夏季风减弱的原因之一.     

Characteristics of intense rainfall over Gujarat State (India) based on percentile criteria

The study focuses on the spatial and temporal variations of intense/extreme rainfall events over Gujarat State (India) during the period 1970–2014. Average monsoon rainfall for the state shows a significant increasing trend, with an increase of 48 mm/decade. Some of the stations in the Saurashtra region show a statistically significant increasing trend but none of the stations in the state show a decreasing trend. The increasing trend in monsoon rainfall is very significant for the past three decades, with an increase of 167 mm/decade. Instead of fixed absolute threshold values, relative threshold values of rainfall corresponding to the 95th, 98th, 99th and 99.5th percentiles for each station have been proposed to represent heavy, very heavy, intense and extreme rainfall, which varied between 70–120, 105–160, 130–210 and 165–280 mm, respectively. Significant increasing trends are observed for the frequency of heavy and very heavy rainfall events over the state.     

A comparison of cumulus parameterization schemes in a numerical weather prediction model for a monsoon rainfall event

In order to evaluate cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes for hydrological applications, the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research's fifth‐generation mesoscale model (MM5) was used to simulate a summer monsoon in east China. The performances of five CP schemes (Anthes–Kuo, Betts–Miller, Fritsch–Chappell, Kain–Fritsch, and Grell) were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate amount of rainfall during the heavy, moderate, and light phases of the event. The Grell scheme was found to be the most robust, performing well at all rainfall intensity and spatial scales. The Betts–Miller scheme also performed well, particularly at larger scales, but its assumptions may make it inapplicable to non‐tropical environments and at smaller scales. The Kain–Fritsch scheme was the best at simulating moderate rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to the Fritsch–Chappell scheme on which it was based. The Anthes–Kuo scheme was found to underpredict precipitation consistently at the mesoscale. Simulation performance was found to improve when schemes that included downdrafts were used in conjunction with schemes that did not include downdrafts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CMIP5模式对东亚冬季风指数变化及其与冬季大气环流和气温关系的模拟评估

本文评估了44个CMIP5模式对东亚冬季风环流系统,特别是东亚冬季风指数及其对应的环流和气温特征的模拟能力.结果表明：CMIP5模式对地表气温和500 hPa位势高度场模拟效果最好,对200 hPa纬向风的模拟次之,而对海平面气压和850 hPa经向风的模拟相对较差.与单个模式相比,多模式集合（MME）的模拟能力要更优,其能够很好地再现西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、东亚低层偏北风、中层东亚大槽、高层东亚西风急流以及地表气温的空间分布.不过,模拟的环流系统偏强,造成东亚地表气温总体偏低.对于东亚冬季风指数,分别选取基于300 hPa纬向风（I_Jhun）、850 hPa风场（I_Wang）、500 hPa位势高度（I_Cui）、以及海平面气压（I_Guo）定义的四个指数表征东亚冬季风强度.MME能很好地模拟I_Cui和I_Wang指数的长期变化,还能合理再现四个指数所指示的东亚冬季风环流和气温的变化特征：对应冬季风偏强年份,西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、东亚沿岸低层北风、东亚大槽和高空西风急流加强,东亚大陆地表气温和极端低温降低,但变化的幅度比观测结果偏弱.

     

Space–time rainfall variability in the Paute basin,Ecuadorian Andes

Despite the importance of mountain ranges as water providers, knowledge of their climate variability is still limited, mostly due to a combination of data scarcity and heterogeneous orography. The tropical Andes share many of the main features of mountain ranges in general, and are subject to several climatic influences that have an effect on rainfall variability. Although studies have addressed the large-scale variation, the basin scale has received little attention. Thus, the purpose of this study was to obtain a better understanding of rainfall variability in the tropical Andes at the basin scal, utilizing the Paute River basin of southern Ecuador as a case study. Analysis of 23 rainfall stations revealed a high spatial variability in terms of: (i) large variations of mean annual precipitation in the range 660–3400 mm; (ii) the presence of a non-monotonic relation between annual precipitation and elevation; and (iii) the existence of four, sometimes contrasting, rainfall regimes. Data from seven stations for the period 1964–1998 was used to study seasonality and trends in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation. Seasonality is less pronounced at higher elevations, confirming that in the páramo region, the main water source for Andean basins, rainfall is well distributed year round. Additionally, during the period of record, no station has experienced extreme concentrations of annual rainfall during the wet season, which supports the concept of mountains as reliable water providers. Although no regional or basin-wide trends are found for annual precipitation, positive (negative) trends during the wet (dry) season found at four stations raises the likelihood of both water shortages and the risk of precipitation-triggered disasters. The study demonstrates how variable the precipitation patterns of the Andean mountain range are, and illustrates the need for improved monitoring. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.