水库现状天然来水量分析计算

水库现状天然采水量是指在水库断面上游现状水利工程条件下的天然来水量.在实测水库断面来水量资料系列中,由于每年水库断面以上流域内水利工程数量和质量的不同,导致水库断面实测来水量资料系列不是在现状条件下的来水量资料系列,而水库断面以上流域内水利工程特别是中小型水利工程一般无实测来水量资料.本文探讨将水库断面实测来水量资料系...     

概化的Tank模型及其在龙羊峡水库汛期旬平均入库流量预报中的应用

Tank模型（又称为水箱模型），是一种用于流域径流预报的确定性水文模型，根据龙羊峡水库入库主要产流区－－黄河上游唐乃亥水文站以上流域下垫面条件下产汇流特性，将其概化为以降雨量为输入，径流量为输出的单孔出流的线性水箱，工用于该水库汛期旬平均入库流量的预报，经对历史资料进行拟合和试验预报的 结果表明，该模型具有较高的预报精度，现已应用于黄河上游龙羊峡水库汛期旬平均入库来水量的中期预报中，取得了十分显著的经济效益。     

基于预报及库容补偿的水库汛限水位动态控制研究

结合清江流域梯级水电站工程特性及防洪任务,以不降低梯级防洪标准为原则,建立基于预报及上游水布垭水库库容补偿的汛限水位动态控制模型,推求隔河岩水库汛期汛限水位动态控制方案。计算表明,该模型在不降低水库及梯级原有的防洪标准前提下,能有效利用上游水布垭水库的防洪库容,分担隔河岩水库部分防洪任务,并显著提高其发电量。其中,多年平均弃水量减少4．1444亿m~3,发电量增加1．2172亿kW·h。     

梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式

利用Copula函数建立各分区洪水的联合分布,基于联合概率密度最大原则,推导得到最可能地区组成法的计算通式,并用来推求梯级水库下游断面的设计洪水。选择清江流域水布垭-隔河岩-高坝洲梯级水库为例,开展了验证和方法比较研究。结果表明:最可能地区组成法计算得到的设计洪水值位于同频率地区组成法多方案计算结果的区间之内;受清江梯级水库调洪的影响,宜都断面设计洪水的削峰率十分显著,最可能地区组成法推求100年一遇设计洪水的削峰率达到30.2%。该法具有较强的统计基础,组成方案唯一,结果合理可行,为复杂梯级水库设计洪水的计算提供了一种新途径。     

梯级水库下游洪水概率分布的计算方法

推求受梯级水库调洪影响后下游断面洪水的概率分布，是水资源系统规划设计中的重要问题。本文分析了国内外现行计算方法及其存在问题，提出了随机模拟和概率组合离散求和两种方法，并通过黄河上游龙羊峡与刘家峡两座大型水库及其下游兰州市所组成的防洪系统进行实际验证，证明了该方法具有明显的优越性。     

依据暴雨特征推求单位线的方法探讨

依据暴雨特征推求单位线的方法探讨吴成志，周玉华，张世功，冯爱春，杨瑞章（山东省临沂水文局）１流域及水文资料概况沂、沭河，发源于鲁东南沂蒙山区，南流经苏北入黄海。沂河临沂水文站，总流域面积１０３１５ｋｍ￣２，上游大中型水库控制流域面积４９．６％，大中型...     

基于贝叶斯网络的梯级水库连溃风险

为研究梯级水库漫坝连溃的风险,并探索贝叶斯网络在水库连溃风险分析中的可行性,通过构建洪水作用下双库连溃的贝叶斯网络模型,并选取四川省大渡河上两相邻梯级水库进行分析,以推求水库漫（溃）坝概率及评估连溃风险。分析过程表明贝叶斯网络方法能直观、简便地分析多风险源共同作用下的水库群连溃风险问题。结果表明,两水库天然洪水漫坝条件概率的数量级均为10-6,洪水引发单库漫坝风险较小;正常蓄水位以上,上游水库溃坝洪水致下游水库漫坝条件概率超0.8,即上游水库溃坝导致水库连溃的风险很大。     

黄前水库来水量特征与影响因素分析

在黄前水库观测资料的基础上,运用距平分析和假设检验的方法,分析了黄前水库来水年内分配不均、年际变化显著,尤其是近二十年来水系列年际变化更加显著等特点。系统分析了流域降水、蒸发、森林植被等来水影响因素的影响时机和影响程度。由于流域降水是影响黄前水库来水量的最重要的影响因素,建立了水库来水量与流域降水量之间的线性关系。这些分析结果对黄前水库的合理开发与利用有指导作用。     

三峡工程至上游水库区间可能最大洪水估算

为分析长江三峡工程的防洪效益,本文根据三峡至上游拟建(至2030年)大中型水库区间(29万 km~2)的自然地理、水文气象和暴雨洪水特性,并结合历史洪水资料丰富的特点,采用暴雨天气组合法和1870年洪水模拟放大法,估算了该区的可能最大降水,用“差值法”推求出可能最大洪水。结果表明,区间暴雨量占三峡以上总暴雨量的61～83%;区间可能最大洪峰流量为94000～100400m~3/S;三峡以上全流域产生可能最大洪水条件下,即使上游水库的防洪库容全用于削减三峡洪水,也只能减少洪峰流量19000m~3/S,从而显示出三峡工程的防洪效益不能被上游水库群所替代的优势.     

吕庄水库水文站水文资料整理与工作分析

通过对吕庄水库上游1986-2002年径流初步还原的分析后发现,还原水文资料精度迭不到规范要求,最后提出吕庄水库水文站在以后工作中应以驻测和站点结合为主,巡测、调查为辅,进行流域的水量还原。     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Report of the restudy of the defined global stratotype of the base of the Silurian System

The Global Stratotype Section and Point （GSSP） for the base of the Silurian System was defined in 1985. Since that time, a number of researchers have suggested that this section has serious deficiencies for use as a GSSP. As a result, in 2000, the Subcommission on Silurian Stratigraphy （SSS） proposed undertaking a formal restu@ of this GSSP, which was subsequently approved by the International Commission of Stratigraphy （ICS）. The result of this restudy was the formal proposal that the current GSSP, at 1.6 m above the base of the Birkhill Shale, at Dob＇s Linn, Scotland, should be maintained as the same locality and stratigraphic level, but the bios- tratigraphical definition of the boundary should be revised. The previously defined, basal Silurian grapto- lite zone, the Parakidograptus acuminatus Zone, should be subdivided into a lower Akidograptus ascensus Zone and a higher E acuminatus Zone. The base of the A. ascensus Zone, marked by the first appearance of A. ascensus, should be regarded as the biostratigraphic mark for the base of the Silurian. This proposal has now been formally approved by the SSS and ICS, and ratified by International Union of Geological Sciences. This is the first GSSP to undergo formal restudy and redefini- tion, and the proposal also included a recommended procedure for restudy of GSSPs.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

The Tendencies of the Development of the Mineral-Resources Sector at the Turn of the Century

Important tendencies in development of the world mineral-resources sector at the beginning of the 21st century were an increase in production and consumption of mineral materials differentiated by types of metals and nonmetallic mineral raw materials, by countries and regions, as well as the concentration of the production of mineral raw materials in a small number of countries, and a reduction in industrial reserves of minerals in the world economy, even at the current stage of their extraction. These tendencies should be taken into account in working out a strategy for development of the Russian mineral raw-material base.     

Causes of the famine among the rural population of the Sahelian zone of the Sudan

Taking the example of W Sudan, an analysis of the climatic incidents leading to the two recent famine disasters is made. On this natural background, the human side is investigated. Focus is directed towards the fragile economic structure of the famine-prone population groups. An early-warning system for famine in the Sahelian Zone is proposed taking grain production and storage, livestock development and the relationship between the prices of livestock and grain as major indicators.     

东濮凹陷北部沙河街组三段中亚段沉积环境分析

东濮凹陷北部沙三中亚段广泛发育盐岩和烃源岩,这两个看似不能共存的物质却在这里互层共生。该时期研究区沉积特征为多盐韵律与多层烃源岩互层共生、连续沉积,单个盐韵律厚度从几米到十几米,烃源岩有机质丰度高、类型好。平面上,两者在湖盆沉积沉降中心共生;垂向上,高有机质丰度、好干酪根类型与高盐度地层具有较好的对应关系。因而成为恢复古气候和古环境的重要研究对象。通过岩石学、古生物学以及Sr/Ba、B/Ga、(V+Ni+Mn)、Fe/Mn、Sr/Cu、Mg/Ca、V/(V+Ni)、稀土元素含量和氯同位素等方法对凹陷北部沙三中亚段的沉积环境进行研究。结果表明,凹陷北部沙三中亚段为深水沉积的还原环境,古盐度较高,达到半咸水-咸水沉积;微量元素和孢粉化石特征表明研究区沙三中亚段为温暖潮湿的环境。     

On the consistency of proposed models for the Pyrenees with the structure of the eastern parts of the belt

The structure of the eastern Pyrenees consists mainly of south-directed thrusts involving basement and cover rocks. An antiformal stack developed by the piling up of basement thrust sheets which outcrop in the Axial zone. These structures account for a thin-skinned thrust model rather than a vertical fault model in which the Axial zone would be essentially autochthonous, and the North-Pyrenean fault the axial plane of a fan thrust system. New data from the Eastern Pyrenees and the thin-skinned model suggest that(1) the structure east of the Pedraforca nappe is similar to that of the Central Pyrenees; (2) the cover rocks of the South-Pyrenean units and of the Axial zone-after restoration—built up a northwards-thickening prism consistent with the existence of a unique Pyrenean sedimentary basin during Mesozoic time; (3) the Axial zone is only a complex antiformal stack developed as a part of South-Pyrenean system related to the Paleogene thrusting-tectonics. The Axial zone palaeogeographic area had no special meaning during Mesozoic time.     

郯庐断裂南段研究进展与断裂性质讨论

据1：5万区域地质调查和专题研究资料，就郯庐断裂带是否南延与消失的原因，其与大别—苏鲁造山带交截形成的假位错效应，以及与中新生代沉积盆地形成演化的关系等作了新的阐述。在此基础上，讨论了郯庐断裂带是否为巨大的左行平移断层或转换断层。认为郯庐断裂带可能是在“古郯庐带”的基础上于早侏罗世重新活动、白垩纪强烈活动的地堑型枢纽断裂带。