Seismic Acquisition on the Buried-Hill Faulted Zone of the Jiyang Sag

The pattern of the subtle traps, in which oil and gas accumulated, in the buried-hill faulted zone in the Jiyang sag is very complicated, and very hard to prospect. The paper analyses the main difficulties in exploring the complicated buried-hill faulted zone of the area from a point of geology.The typical pattern of the buried-hill zone in the Jiyang sag is studied using the forward modeling.Target-orient layout design and full 3-D seismic technology, which are useful for oil and gas exploration on the zone, are put forward. Taking the exploration for oil and gas traps on the zone as an example, certain technologies and the effect of their applications about the design for target acquisition,acquisition on a wide-azimuth, point sources and point receivers are discussed.     

Modeling the impact of climate change on sediment transport and morphology in coupled watershed-coast systems:A case study using an integrated approach

Climate change is an issue of major concern nowadays.Its impact on the natural and human environment is studied intensively,as the expected shift in climate will be significant in the next few decades.Recent experience shows that the effects will be critical in coastal areas,resulting in erosion and inundation phenomena worldwide.In addition to that,coastal areas are subject to ＂pressures＂ from upstream watersheds in terms of water quality and sediment transport.The present paper studies the impact of climate change on sediment transport and morphology in the aforementioned coupled system.The study regards a sandy coast and its upstream watershed in Chalkidiki,North Greece;it is based on：（a）an integrated approach for the quantitative correlation of the two through numerical modeling,developed by the authors,and（b）a calibrated application of the relevant models Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT）and PELNCON-M,applied to the watershed and the coastal zone,respectively.The examined climate change scenarios focus on a shift of the rainfall distribution towards fewer and more extreme rainfall events,and an increased frequency of occurrence of extreme wave events.Results indicate the significance of climatic pressures in wide-scale sediment dynamics,and are deemed to provide a useful perspective for researchers and policy planners involved in the study of coastal morphology evolution in a changing climate.     

Research into the Regional Characteristics of the Tectonic Stress Field in Jiashi, Xinjiang and Its Surrounding Areas

Jiashi and its surrounding areas are composed of many structural zones. Using the focal mechanism solutions of 59 moderately strong earthquakes in Jiashi and its surrounding areas, and combining these with the calculation results of system cluster and stress field inversion, we analyzed the evolvement characteristics of the stress field for different times and different regions. The results were as follows: The earthquakes in Jiashi are mainly strike-slip. However, those of the Kalpin block are mainly reverse events, showing an obvious thrusting. The regional characteristics are different from other areas. The direction of the regional principal stress field is near NS. However, under different tectonic backgrounds, the directions of the stress fields are different. The direction of the principal compress stress is near NS in the Kashi-Wuqia area. But before and after the 3 earthquakes with M7.0, dynamic evolution from NW to NS and then to NE with time process was observed. The Kalpin block has been dominated by a consistent stress field in the NW direction for a long time. However, the direction of the stress field of the Jiashi region is NE. Since 1996, the direction of the regional stress field has changed obviously. The direction of the P axis was deflected towards the NE, and the plunge angle increased. The result shows clearly the regional characteristics and variation of the distribution pattern of the stress field in different tectonic environments.     

Global frequency distributions of pulsations driven by sharp decrease of solar wind dynamic pressure

On 24 August 2005, an impulse of solar wind dynamic pressure(Psw) hit the magnetosphere. Using the high resolution geomagnetic field data from 15 ground stations and the data from Geotail and TC-1, we studied the geomagnetic pulsations at auroral latitudes driven by the sharp decrease of Psw at the trailing edge of the impulse. The results show that the sharp decrease of Psw can excite a global pulsation in the frequency range 4.3–11.6 m Hz. The pulsation has a reversal of polarization between two auroral latitude stations, a larger power spectral density(PSD) close to resonant latitude and increasing frequency with decreasing latitude. All these features indicate that the pulsations are associated with field line resonance(FLR). The fundamental resonant frequency(the peak frequency of PSD between 4.3 and 5.8 m Hz) is dependent on magnetic local time and is largest around magnetic local noon. This feature is due to the fact that the size of magnetospheric cavity is dependent on local time and smallest at noon. A second harmonic wave at about 10 m Hz is also observed, which is strongest in the daytime sector, and becomes heavily attenuated in the night sector. The comparison of the PSDs of the pulsations driven by sharp increase and sharp decrease of Psw shows that the frequency of pulsations is negatively proportional to the size of magnetopause. Since the FLR is excited by compressional cavity/waveguide waves, the above results indicate that the resonant frequency in the magnetospheric cavity/waveguide is controlled not only by solar wind parameters but also by magnetic local time of observation point.     

Spectral features of geomagnetic low point displacement and its mechanism

In this paper,Changli station in Hebei Province was taken as an example,in which the minute data of geomagnetic Z component was used to analyze the spectral values of its main frequencies during normal time,geomagnetic storm time and low point displacement time interval respectively. After fitting of ten high spectral values to loga-rithmic functions,it is found that,by using same length of data,the spectral values at geomagnetic storm time in-crease apparently compared with those at normal time,especially at the high frequency segment. While low point displacement occurred,the spectral values at high frequency are approximate to those at normal time,but at period above 4 hours they are mostly lower than those at normal time. Comparison of accumulating of some FFT results at low point displacement and normal time shows that,spectral values at periods of 8.5 and 13.7 hours increase at low point displacement time relative to those at normal time. Compared with the images of Ne observed at DE-METER satellite,it is illustrated that the occurrence of geomagnetic low point displacement is well corresponding with the increase of Ne in ionosphere. Finally it was discussed about those spectral features and the occurrence mechanism of geomagnetic low point displacement.     

Braiding process and bank erosion in the Brahmaputra River

The present work explores relations between stream power,braiding intensities and bank erosion in certain stretches of the Brahmaputra River.In this paper,an objective approach is presented to enable quantitative assessment of spatio-temporal behaviour of channel braiding process of the Brahmaputra River by using the Plan Form Index and corresponding estimation of stream power to establish a behavioural pattern of variability of potential energy expenditure.The braiding index is compared for discrete years to understand the morphological behaviour.Subsequently,a real time estimation of stream power for certain stretches of Brahmaputra River is done in order to analyse its variability in braiding intensity and bank erosion.The paper presents the dynamic behaviour of the channel pattern of the Brahmaputra River System in Assam valley of India over a time span of 18 years.The procedure addresses the selection of input parameters from digital satellite images,comprising scenes for the years 1990,1997 and 2007 with specific dates,from Dhubri near Indo-Bangladesh Border to Upper Assam.Deployment of GIS technique has been made to extract the required parameters to derive Plan Form Indices for the entire study reach.Stream power estimation is done for corresponding latest floods and for corresponding dates of image scenes.The study indicated that due to consistent aggradation of riverbed inducing temporal declination of stream power,there is an occurrence of wide spread braiding.This in turn incurs substantial yearly land loss due to bank erosion,caused by flow concentrations due to temporal evolution of multiple channels in the Brahmaputra River.     

Development of an aftershock occurrence model calibrated for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods

This paper presents the calibration of Omori's aftershock occurrence rate model for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Aftershock occurrence rate models are used for estimating the probability of an aftershock that exceeds a specific magnitude threshold within a time interval after the mainshock. Critical decisions on the post-earthquake safety of structures directly depend on the aftershock hazard estimated using the occurrence model. It is customary to calibrate models in a region-specific manner. These models depend on rate parameters(a, b, c and p) related to the seismicity characteristics of the investigated region. In this study, the available well-recorded aftershock sequences for a set of Mw ≥ 5.9 mainshock events that were observed in Turkey until 2012 are considered to develop the aftershock occurrence model. Mean estimates of the model parameters identified for Turkey are a =-1.90, b = 1.11, c = 0.05 and p = 1.20. Based on the developed model, aftershock likelihoods are computed for a range of different time intervals and mainshock magnitudes. Also, the sensitivity of aftershock probabilities to the model parameters is investigated. Aftershock occurrence probabilities estimated using the model are expected to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluations in Turkey.     

Variations of widespread extreme cold and warm days in winter over China and their possible causes

The two leading modes of winter surface air temperature(SAT) over China during 1961–2017 are a spatially consistent pattern and a north-south dipole pattern. Based on the two leading modes, the characteristics of the extreme cold and warm days in the two patterns, defined by the standard deviation larger than 1.28 or smaller than-1.28 in the time series of the two leading modes, are analyzed. With the increase of winter SAT during 1961–2017, the number of spatially consistent extreme cold days decreased and their occurrence was restricted to late December to early January, whereas the number of spatially consistent extreme warm days increased significantly in January and February. Global warming is associated with an increase in the spatially consistent extreme warm days and a decrease in spatially consistent extreme cold days, but has little relation to the sum of extreme cold and warm days of either the spatially consistent or north-south dipole pattern. The Siberian High(SH) is the main factor controlling the sum of spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The strong(weak) SH before(after) the1990 s corresponds to an increase(decrease) in the sum of the spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The occurrences of extreme south-cold-north-warm and extreme south-warm-north-cold days are related to the north-south difference of the SH.When the center of the SH is in mid-high latitudes, the extreme south-warm-north-cold(south-cold-north-warm) days occur more(less) often. During the winters of 1961–2017, the total number of extreme cold and warm days of the north-south dipole pattern changes negligibly. The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) may be the main factor affecting the sum of the extreme cold and warm days of the two types of SAT pattern in China.     

Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies

Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the typhoon as well as hurricane fre-quencies are documented. The correlation between NPO index in June-July-August-September and the annual typhoon number in the western North Pacific is 0.37 for the period of 1949―1998. The NPO is correlated with the annual hurricane number in the tropical Atlantic at -0.28 for the same period. The variability of NPO is found to be concurrent with the changes of the magnitude of vertical zonal wind shear, sea-level pressure patterns, as well as the sea surface temperature, which are physically asso- ciated with the typhoons and hurricanes genesis. The NPO associated atmospheric circulation vari- ability is analyzed to explain how NPO is linked with variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation in the western Pacific and the tropical Atlantic, via the atmospheric teleconnection.     

A Preliminary Study on the Use of NCEP Temperature Images and Additive Tectonic Stress from Astro- Tidal- Triggering to Forecast Short-Impending Earthquakes

Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Tibet, China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction of America(NCEP)with the additive tectonic stress from astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) and makes the following conclusions: The abnormal temperature image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-temporal evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The ATSA has an evident triggering effect on the activity of a fault when the terra stress is in critical status; using the NCEP images and the ATSA to forecast short-impending earthquake is a new concept; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective ATSA cycle, i.e. that occurred at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of a peak, rather than at the time when the variation rate was maximal. In addition, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003～2004 in Tibet was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.     

Study on the Relation Between the Suddenly Changed Sequence of Earth Resistivity and Earthquakes

Based on fracture mechanics,a large amount of practically observed data are analyzed in this paper,and it is disclosed that the earth resistivity stations around the epicenter of a strong event have shown seismically an anomalous earth resistivity suddenly changed sequence.The maximum sudden change in the sequence tends to shift backward with the increase of epicentral distance,while it shifts forward with the increase of the magnitude of the earthquake.Also,the maximum sudden change expands from the epicenter to the peripheral areas.The result of study has shown that the obviousness degree of the anomalies is related to the measuring direction.The lithological contrast around the stations also influences the time of the anomaly occurrence.The maximum sudden change of the sequence will be advanced while the rock resistance to pressure is not good.On the basis of these findings,the authors propose that it might be possible to predict the three key elements of forthcoming earthquakes by using the suddenly     

Dynamical diagnosis of the breakup of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Northern Hemisphere

The research on climate change in polar regions, especially on the role of polar in the global climate system, has gain unprecedented level of interest. It has been the key scientific issue of the International Polar Year program (IPY, 2007―2008). In this paper, we dealt with the debate upon the breakup time of the stratospheric polar vortex in boreal spring. An observational study of the relation between strato- spheric polar vortex breakup and the extra-tropical circulation was performed. The mean breakup date―when the winter westerly at the core of polar jet turns to summer easterly―is about April 10. The breakup time has large interannual variation with a time span of about 2 months. It also has a long-term trend with the 1990s and 2000s witnessing more and more late breakups of polar vortex. Composite of wind speed at the core of polar jet for the extremely early and late breakup years shows that late years have two periods of westerly weakening while early breakup years have only one. The first weakening in the late years happens in middle January with wind speed dropping sharply from more than 40 m s?1 to about 15 m s?1. This is accompanied with anomalous activities of planetary waves in both strato- sphere and troposphere; while the second weakening in the late breaking years is mainly the results of diabatic heating with very weak wave activities. In early breakup years, the transition from westerly to easterly is rapid with wind speed dropping from more than 30 m s?1 to less than ?10 m s?1 within a month. This evolution is associated with a strong bidirectional dynamical coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere. The circulation anomalies at low troposphere are also analyzed in the extremely early and late breakup years. It shows that there are significant differences between the two kinds of extreme years in the geopotential height and temperature composite analysis, indicating the dynamical cou- pling of stratosphere and troposphere with the evolution of stratospheric polar vortex.     

Definition of the core zone of the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime”, and its controlling factors during the instrumental period

The term "westerlies-dominated climatic regime" describes the pattern of precipitation/moisture variations between westerliesdominated arid Central Asia(ACA) and mid-latitude monsoon-dominated Asia on decadal to multi-millennial time scales. However, no attempts have been made to define its core region and the possible physical mechanisms responsible during the period of instrumental observations. The present study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of summer and winter precipitation on interannual to decadal time scales over mid-latitudes of the Eurasian continent using Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis. Our results suggest the existence of an opposing pattern of summer precipitation variations between ACA and mid-latitude monsoon-dominated Asia and Mediterranean on decadal time scales. Based on these results, the core region influenced by the westerlies is outlined, including arid central Asia and Xinjiang in China(36°–54°N, 50°–90°E). By using monthly NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the relationship between the "westerlies-dominated climatic regime" and atmospheric circulation were also analyzed. The combination of the zonal climatic teleconnection pattern and anomalous Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation(ISMP) causes the precipitation characteristics of the "westerlies-dominated climatic regime" precipitation pattern. In addition, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) may also have an important effect on the "westerlies-dominated climatic regime".     

Study on the Seismogeny and Occurrence of Earthquakes by Using Pattern Dynamics

The mesoscopic damage dynamics and damage evolution have been applied to probe theevolutional process induced catastrophe in the earthquake activity.It is a new method.In thispaper,a brief introduction of the basic principle about damage dynamics and evolution ismade.At the same time,using the theory of the pattern dynamics we studied all earthquakes(M_L≥5.0)which occurred along Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea earthquake belt in the capitalregion.The result indicates that the preparation and happening of the real earthquakes andthe theory are consistent.There are two kinds of evolutional model according to the finalstate,namely,global stability model(GS)and evolution induced catastrophe model(EIC).The two models haven’t evident boundary.The transitional zone exhibits the indeterminacyof the seismic process and the effect of the random variation.This research proposed newapproaches for earthquake prediction.     

A long-range forecasting model for the thermosphere based on the intelligent optimized particle filtering

The uncertainties associated with the variations in the thermosphere are responsible for the inaccurate prediction of the orbit decay of low Earth orbiting space objects due to the drag force.Accurate forecasting of the thermosphere is urgently required to avoid satellite collisions,which is a potential threat to the rapid growth of spacecraft applications.However,owing to the imperfections in the physics-based forecast model,the long-range forecast of the thermosphere is still primitive even if the accurate prediction of the external forcing is achieved.In this study,we constructed a novel methodology to forecast the thermosphere for tens of days by specifying the uncertain parameters in a physics-based model using an intelligent optimized particle filtering algorithm.A comparison of the results suggested that this method has the capability of providing a more reliable forecast with more than 30-days leading time for the thermospheric mass density than the existing ones under both weak and severe disturbed conditions,if solar and geomagnetic forcing is known.Moreover,the accurate estimation of the state of thermosphere based on this technique would further contribute to the understanding of the temporal and spatial evolution of the upper atmosphere.     

Suppressing random noise to broaden the useful bandwidth of seismic reflection data

The signal-to-noise ratio （SNR） of seismic reflection data in many areas is rather poor and conventional two-dimensional filters designed to suppress noise with different moveout from the signal tend to generate artifacts. We have extended a method of multichannel filtering, based on the hypothesis that signals on adjacent channels are similar, for enhancing the SNR on stacked sections. Using only the mid-range frequencies where the SNR is highest, the event trend is found for overlapping windows on the section and the average signal vector is calculated. Then the data from the full bandwidth section are projected onto the spatially varying unit similarity vectors and the results are merged for the overlapping windows. Application of the method to synthetic data containing steeply dipping events and to a stacked section for a marine 2D line has produced good results. The modifications we have introduced carry a small overhead in computing time but they should enable the method to be used effectively even on sections containing steep dips.     

中国西北地区强震前地磁短期异常特征分析

Analysing characteristics of geomagnetic anomalies before M_S≥5 earthquakes in recent years in Gonghe basin and at middle east section of Qilian mountains and space-time distribution of the anomalies,geomagnetic short-term prediction indexes before strong earthquakes in northwestern China are studied.The results indicate that various degrees of anomalies of magnetic storm,geomagnetic low-value displacement and correlation coefficients of geomagnetic vertical component between stations appeared before strong earthquakes.Interval from beginning of geomagnetic low-value displacement anomalies to origin time is 10～40 days.Interval from magnetic storm to origin time is three days before and after the dates which are multiple of nine.Coming earthquakes are located at near line of demarcation of the low-value displacement anomalies,or in the anomalous area.If duration of the correlation coefficient anomalies is over 5 months,it is possible that M_S≥5 earthquake occurs in anomalous area.     

The Program Application on the Relative Method of Fuzzy Mathematics

The method of fuzzy mathematics for simultaneous assessment of time and intensity of earthquake hazards has been studied.This method is based on fundamental statistical indices of regional seismicity.Applying the retrieval method of fuzzy information,we can classify the time and intensity into several intervals and classes of seismic activity,then the possible time interval of large earthquakes with magnitude of M≥Ms can be estimated in a given region.Based on the preceding idea,an FRPP program is constructed.For the automatic data processing when this method is used,it is very important to design the statistical process of each index decomposition so that the program could be fit to a different sample discussed.There are some functions in the FRPP program.The man-made impact on results is reduced to the minimum as far as possible.Computation time is saved.There is a menu on which time interval,index,intensity class,and output data all can be selected.The catalog input that can be displayed on the scre     

Mining seismicity, gas outburst and the significance of their relationship in the study of physics of earthquake source

This paper presents an overview of mining seismicity, gas outburst and their origin. The internal relation of mining seismicity and gas outburst in the dynamic process is studied on the basis of the fact that these disasters sometimes occur simultaneously. The examples show a close relationship between mining seismicity and gas outburst in high gassy coal mines. It is proposed that strong mine shocks plus the response of low value and delay time are early warning signals. The mechanism of the relationship between mining seismicity and gas outburst is analyzed by using the location of mining shocks, focus mechanism, cause of mining shocks and conditions of gas outburst. The trigger action of gas fluid on mining shocks, especially the effect of the anomalous property of supercritical fluid on the preparation and occurrence of mining shocks is discussed. According to the similarity between min-ing-induced earthquakes and tectonic earthquakes in terms of mechanism, the significance of the above results in the study of physics of earthquake source is also discussed.     

Theory and application of nonlinear river dynamics

A theoretical model for river evolution including riverbed formation and meandering pattern formation is presented in this paper.Based on nonlinear mathematic theory,the nonlinear river dynamic theory is set up for river dynamic process.Its core content includes the stability and tropism characteristics of flow motion in river and river selves＇ evolution.The stability of river dynamic process depends on the response of river selves to the external disturbance,if the disturbance and the resulting response will eventually attenuate,and the river dynamics process can be restored to new equilibrium state,the river dynamic process is known as stable;otherwise,the river dynamic process is unstable.The river dynamic process tropism refers to that the evolution tendency of river morphology after the disturbance.As an application of this theory,the dynamical stability of the constant curvature river bend is calculated for its coherent vortex disturbance and response.In addition,this paper discusses the nonlinear evolution of the river peristaltic process under a large-scale disturbance,showing the nonlinear tendency of river dynamic processes,such as river filtering and butterfly effect.