应用底栖动物完整性指数评价滇池流域入湖河流生态系统健康

采用底栖动物完整性指数(B-IBI)评价滇池流域入湖河流健康状况.根据滇池流域38个样点(9个参照点,29个干扰点)于2009年丰水期和2010年平水期采得的大型底栖动物数据,对19个生物参数进行分布范围、Spearman相关性和判别能力分析,确定构成滇池流域底栖动物生物完整性的指数为甲壳动物+软体动物分类单元数、集食者%、捕食者%和耐污类群%.用比值法统一量纲,计算各个生物参数的值,并将所得的值相加即得到B-IBI指数值.根据B-IBI指数值的25%分位数确定健康等级标准,并对小于25%分位数的值进行四等分,即得到滇池流域底栖动物完整性的评价标准,B-IBI>1.62为健康,1.03～1.62为亚健康,0.31～1.03为一般,0.10～0.31为较差,<0.10为极差.评价结果表明,滇池流域的38个样点中,16个为健康,5个为亚健康,6个为一般,6个为较差,5个为极差.B-IBI值与硝态氮和水温有较大的负相关关系,与其他理化因子相关性不明显.     

应用底栖动物完整性指数评价太湖生态健康

依据2010年春季至2012年秋季,太湖32个样点的底栖动物和环境变量共11次的季节性调查结果,采用干扰程度最小系统法定义构建底栖动物生物完整性指数的参照系统,提出了确定参照系统的4个基本条件,进而按非湖心区和湖心区两个生态区分别构建太湖底栖动物完整性指数(LTB-IBI).通过对候选生物参数的分布范围筛选、判别能力分析、与理化因子的相关性和参数间的冗余分析,获得了非湖心区LTB-IBI的4个构成指数:总分类单元数、Simpson多样性指数、前3位优势单元%和BMWP指数,以及湖心区LTB-IBI的5个构成指数:总分类单元数、Simpson多样性指数、甲壳+软体分类单元数、前3位优势单元%和BMWP指数.采用比值法统一构成指数量纲,分别构建了非湖心区和湖心区LTBIBI指数,评价太湖水生态健康的等级.2010-2012年,太湖生态健康总体上呈现逐步提升的趋势.影响太湖底栖动物完整性的重要环境变量是水体中的氮含量.研究表明,连续观察数据可较大程度上提高太湖LTB-IBI指数的可靠性和评价结果的合理性.     

江西地区地方性震级的量规函数与台基校正值研究

本文采用《江西测震台网地震观测报告》,选取2007年10月~2015年12月所记录的499次M_L≥1.5地震事件,对各子台测定震级与台网平均震级偏差进行定量的统计分析,从震级偏差频次分布、量规函数、台基、方位角等方面分析产生震级偏差的原因。在对量规函数和台基进行校正后,震级偏差绝对值在0.2以内的样本数达到了68.6%,并给出了适合江西地区的量规函数和台基校正值。     

2015年3月特大磁暴期间中国区域电离层TEC NeuralProphet预报模型研究

延迟是全球卫星导航定位中重要的误差源之一,提高电离层TEC建模和预报精度对改善卫星导航定位精度至关重要.本文构建了以太阳辐射通量指数F_10.7、地磁活动指数Dst、地理坐标和中国科学院(Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS)GIM数据为输入参数的NeuralProphet神经网络模型(NP模型),实现在2015年3月特大磁暴期中国区域电离层TEC短期预报.为验证NP模型的预报精度,本文同时构建了长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-term Memory Neural Network, LSTM)模型进行对比分析.结果统计分析表明,NP模型在磁暴期(2015年DOY076-078)TEC预报值RMSE和RD分别为0.83 TECU和3.13%,绝对和相对精度较LSTM模型分别提高1.49 TECU和10.25%;且NP模型RMSE优于1.5 TECU的比例达97.24%,远高于LSTM模型.NP模型预报值与CAS具有较好一致性和无偏性,偏差均值仅为-0.01 TECU,而LSTM模型预报值的均值偏大,偏差均值为1.49 TECU.从...     

周至地电阻率观测环境干扰数值模拟

周至地震台NS、NE和NW向测道地电阻率观测值2012年初开始出现显著趋势减小变化,经多次现场调查落实,认为变化与近年来农民在测区大规模搭建猕猴桃架有关.针对周至地震台地电阻率连续观测存在的环境干扰问题,建立环境干扰物理模型,模拟分析环境干扰对周至地电阻率观测的影响,并分析2012年以来趋势减小的可能干扰源.结果显示：2012年新搭建的猕猴桃架会造成周至地电阻率3测道观测值的趋势减小.当干扰电阻R=10 Ω时,模拟结果与实际观测结果符合良好.     

应用底栖动物完整性指数评价上海市河流健康

据2011-2013年对上海市31条河流底栖动物的调查结果,对31个生物参数进行分布范围、判别能力以及相关性等进行分析,确定构建上海市河流底栖动物完整性指数(B-IBI)的4个参数:(寡毛类动物+蛭纲)数量百分比、耐污类群分类单元数、双翅目数量百分比和集食者分类单元数百分比.采用比值法统一量纲,将各个生物参数分值加和得到上海市河流B-IBI值.利用构建的B-IBI对上海市31条河流健康状况进行评价,结果表明:31条河流中,有4条河流处于健康状态,8条河流处于亚健康状态,9条河流处于一般状态,8条河流处于较差状态,2条河流处于极差状态;远郊河流健康状态最好,近郊次之,市区最差.     

西辽河流域鱼类生物完整性指数评价及与环境因子的关系

采用鱼类生物完整性指数(F-IBI)评估西辽河流域环境质量,利用相关分析筛选了影响F-IBI的环境因子,结合局部加权回归散点修匀法(LOWESS)估算了这些环境因子的保护限值.结果表明:20个候选参数指标中,鳅科鱼类物种百分比、底层鱼类物种数、耐受性鱼类个体数、杂食性鱼类物种数和筑巢产卵鱼类个体百分比适合作为西辽河流域F-IBI构建参数.采用比值法统一参数量纲,以参考点F-IBI值的95%分位数作为健康参考值,对全流域44个采样点进行健康评价,得到健康点位5个(11.4%),亚健康点位9个(20.5%),一般点位12个(27.3%),差点位11个(25.0%),极差点位7个(15.9%).电导率、氨氮浓度、碱度和泥沙比例与F-IBI呈显著负相关,坡降和草地比例与F-IBI呈显著正相关.经LOWESS和独立样本t检验发现,电导率、氨氮浓度、碱度、泥沙比例和草地比例等环境因子的保护限值分别为531μS/cm、0.55 mg/L、4.4 mmol/L、47.2%和37.0%,且限值两侧的F-IBI分值差异显著,该结果可作为西辽河流域环境管理中鱼类群落完整性保护的有益参考.     

基于底栖动物生物完整性指数的黄河干流生态健康评价

黄河为世界上最长的多沙河流,全河段水沙异质性及其生态健康的空间差异明显。本文基于黄河干流全河段44个断面春秋两季(2019年)底栖动物的系统调查数据,构建黄河底栖动物生物完整性评价体系。该体系融入指示水沙过程变化的ASPT指数及EPT分类单元个体相对丰度,且参照点与受损点得分差异显著,适用于多沙河流生态健康评价。评价结果显示:黄河干流亚健康及以上状态的断面占比为秋季(75.0%)高于春季(54.5%);自源区沿河而下,底栖动物生物完整性指数值呈下降趋势;库区断面底栖动物生物完整性指数低于临近自然河段。回归分析表明,黄河干流底栖动物生物完整性指数与盐度、总氮、城镇及农田用地占比呈显著负相关,与林地及草地占比呈显著正相关。本研究结果可为黄河生态保护与管理提供科学依据。     

1988—2021年洞庭湖大型底栖动物完整性评价及环境压力影响分析

为客观跟踪洞庭湖水生态环境质量,掌握洞庭湖水生生物完整性状况和变化趋势,支撑长江流域水生态考核工作的开展,基于洞庭湖30多年(1988—2021)的大型底栖动物群落特征数据,构建洞庭湖大型底栖动物完整性指数(BIBI)。基于完整性评价结果,采用多元逐步回归分析识别30多年间影响洞庭湖B-IBI的主要环境因素和贡献率。以低压力期(1988—1994年)底栖动物特征确定参照状态,构建的B-IBI由总分类单元数、甲壳类和软体类分类单元数、H指数、总密度和BI指数5项核心参数构成;同时确定出5项参数的期望值,并建立起B-IBI评价的标准:B-IBI≥6.34,优秀;4.75≤B-IBI<6.34,良好;3.17≤B-IBI<4.75,中等;1.58≤B-IBI<3.17,较差;B-IBI<1.58,很差。经B-IBI在低、高压力组的箱线图分析,进一步验证了该指数的辨别力和适用性。根据研制的B-IBI评价标准,得到洞庭湖B-IBI从1988年的6.99(优)下降到2021年的2.97(较差),表明洞庭湖底栖动物完整性呈现显著的下降趋势。相关环境因素的分析显示,同期洞庭湖的...     

基于模拟土壤湿度的中国干旱检测及多时间尺度特征

土壤干旱能够引起土壤-植被-大气系统的物质和能量循环异常,对生态环境和天气气候具有重要的影响,土壤干旱的检测和特征认识,有助于理解陆气相互作用及其评估和减缓影响.本文以观测气候资料驱动陆面模式CLM3.5模拟中国区域的土壤湿度,引入土壤孔隙度参数校正土壤湿度模拟的湿偏差,并检测了历史土壤干旱,分析不同时间尺度干旱的空间分布和变化趋势:1951~2008年40%的月份发生了月尺度的干旱,平均影响面积占我国陆地总面积的54.6%;年内干旱月数的变化呈干旱区显著减少,半干旱、半湿润区显著增加趋势,而湿润区减少但趋势不显著.1951~2008年月尺度干旱呈减少和增加趋势的面积之比为77.3%,总体上中国呈干旱加剧的趋势;平均来看月尺度干旱冬季影响范围最广,夏季最小,分别影响了我国54.3%和8.4%的陆地总面积.持续3个月以上的干旱主要发生在半干旱和半湿润区,发生概率51.7%,部分地区甚至77.6%;持续6和12个月以上的干旱主要发生在半干旱和干旱区,概率较小.     

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.     

云南漾濞6.4级地震强地面运动三要素基本特征分析

2021年5月21日云南漾濞发生6.4级地震,中国数字化强震动观测网络在主震中捕获28组加速度数据.对84条三分向加速度记录进行常规处理,计算出对应的地震动参数,并绘制震中附近水平向PGA和PGV等值线图,结果显示其走向和形态与震后烈度调查结果相近.将实际观测的相对持时进行曲线回归,求得相关系数,并据此计算出Td(5％...     

Improved estimators of correlation and R2 for skewed hydrologic data

ABSTRACT

The coefficient of determination R² and Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = R are standard metrics in hydrology for the evaluation of the goodness of fit between model simulations and observations, and as measures of the degree of dependence of one variable upon another. We show that the standard product moment estimator of ρ, termed r, while well-behaved for bivariate normal data, is upward biased and highly variable for bivariate non-normal data. We introduce three alternative estimators of ρ which are nearly unbiased and exhibit much less variability than r for non-normal data. We also document remarkable upward bias and tremendous increases in variability associated with r using both synthetic data and daily streamflow simulations from 905 calibrated rainfall–runoff models. We show that estimators of ρ = R accounting for skewness are needed for daily streamflow series because they exhibit high variability and skewness compared to, for example, monthly/annual series, where r should perform well.     

On the growth of disturbances to forced and dissipated barotropic flows

Abstract

We consider the growth of disturbances to large-scale zonally-asymmetric steady states in a truncated spectral model for forced and dissipated barotropic flow. A variant of the energy method is developed to optimize the instantaneous disturbance energy growth rate. The method involves solving a matrix eigenvalue problem amenable to standard numerical techniques. Two applications are discussed. (1) The global stability of a family of steady states is assessed in terms of the Ekman damping coefficient r. It is shown that monotonic global stability (i.e., every disturbances energy monotonically decays to zero) prevails when r≥r_c . (2) Initially fastest-growing disturbances are constructed in the r<r_c regime. Particular attention is paid to a subregion of the r<r_c regime where initially-growing disturbances exist despite stability with respect to normal modes. Nonlinear time-dependent simulations are performed in order to appraise the time evolution of various disturbances.     

Assessment of the ecological status of Mediterranean French coastal waters as required by the Water Framework Directive using the Posidonia oceanica Rapid Easy Index: PREI

This paper describes the PREI (Posidonia oceanica Rapid Easy Index), a method used to assess the ecological status of seawater along Mediterranean French coasts. The PREI was drawn up according to the requirements of the Water Framework Directive (WFD 2000/60/EC) and was tested on 24 and 18 stations in PACA (Provence-Alpes-Côtes d’Azur) and Corsica, respectively. The PREI is based on five metrics: shoot density, shoot leaf surface area, E/L ratio (epiphytic biomass/leaf biomass), depth of lower limit, and type of this lower limit. The 42 studied stations were classified in the first four levels of status: high, good, moderate and poor. The PREI values ranged between 0.280 and 0.847; this classification is in accordance with our field knowledge and with our knowledge of the literature. The PREI was validated regarding human pressure levels (r² = 0.74). (http://eurex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2000:327:0001:0072:EN:PDF).     

鄱阳湖湿地典型植被群落地下水—土壤—植被—大气系统界面水分通量及水源组成

地下水-土壤-植被-大气系统(GSPAC)界面水分传输是湿地生态水文过程研究的关键.本文选取鄱阳湖湿地高位滩地的2种典型植被群落:茵陈蒿(Artemisia capillaris)和芦苇(Phragmites australis)群落为研究对象,运用HYDRUS-1D垂向一维数值模拟,量化了湿地GSPAC系统界面水分通量,阐明了典型丰水年(2012年)和枯水年(2013年)鄱阳湖湿地植被群落的蒸腾用水规律和水源组成.结果表明:(1)茵陈蒿和芦苇群落土壤-大气界面的年降水入渗量为1570~1600 mm,主要集中在雨季4-6月,占年总量的60%;植物-大气界面的年蒸腾总量分别为346~470 mm和926~1057 mm,其中7-8月植被生长旺季最大,占年总量的40%~46%;地下水-根区土壤界面的向上补给水量受不同水文年水位变化的影响显著,地下水年补给量分别为15~513 mm和277~616 mm,主要发生在蒸散发作用强烈和地下水埋深较浅的时段.(2)植被蒸腾用水分为生长初期(4-6月)和生长旺季(7-10月)2个阶段,丰水年植被的整个生长期蒸腾用水充足,枯水年植被生长旺季的蒸腾用水受到严重水分胁迫,实际蒸腾量仅为潜在蒸腾量的一半左右.(3)不同水文年湿地植被生长旺季的水源贡献不同:丰水年茵陈蒿群落以地下水补给为主,芦苇群落以湖水和地下水补给为主;枯水年茵陈蒿群落以降水和前期土壤水储量为主,芦苇群落以地下水补给为主.本研究结果有助于揭示湿地植被的水分利用策略,为阐明湖泊水情变化与植被演替的作用机理提供参考依据.     

Performance of the White method for estimating groundwater evapotranspiration under conditions of deep and fluctuating groundwater

The White method is a simple but the most frequently applied approach to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) from groundwater level diurnal signals. Because of a lack of direct measurements of ET_g, it is difficult to evaluate the performance of the White method, particularly in field environments with variable groundwater fluctuations. A 2‐year field observation in a hyper‐arid riparian tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) stand with deep groundwater depth in the lower Tarim River basin of China was conducted to measure the surface evapotranspiration (ET_s) and groundwater table. The performance of the White method and the influences of the variable groundwater fluctuations on the determinations of the specific yield (S_y) and recharge rate of groundwater (r) in the White method were investigated. The results showed that the readily available S_y determined by Loheide's method was feasible but must be finely determined based on the soil textures in the layers in which the groundwater level fluctuated. A constant S_y value for a defined porous medium could be assumed regardless of the discharge or recharge processes of groundwater. The time span of 0000 h to 0600 h for r estimation for the White method worked best than other time spans. A 2‐day moving average of r values further enhance ET_g estimation. Slight effects of environmental or anthropogenic disturbances on the diurnal fluctuations of groundwater level did not influence the ET_g estimations by the White method. Our results provide valuable references to the application of the White method for estimating daily ET_g in desert riparian forests with deep groundwater depth. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining the SWAT model with sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm for streamflow prediction and uncertainty analysis for the Lake Dianchi Basin,China

Streams play an important role in linking the land with lakes. Nutrients released from agricultural or urban sources flow via streams to lakes, causing water quality deterioration and eutrophication. Therefore, accurate simulation of streamflow is helpful for water quality improvement in lake basins. Lake Dianchi has been listed in the ‘Three Important Lakes Restoration Act’ in China, and the degradation of its water quality has been of great concern since the 1980s. To assist environmental decision making, it is important to assess and predict hydrological processes at the basin scale. This study evaluated the performance of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the feasibility of using this model as a decision support tool for predicting streamflow in the Lake Dianchi Basin. The model was calibrated and validated using monthly observed streamflow values at three flow stations within the Lake Dianchi Basin through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm (SUFI‐2). The results of the autocalibration method for calibrating and the prediction uncertainty from different sources were also examined. Together, the p‐factor (the percentage of measured data bracketed by 95% prediction of uncertainty, or 95PPU) and the r‐factor (the average thickness of the 95PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the measured data) indicated the strength of the calibration and uncertainty analysis. The results showed that the SUFI‐2 algorithm performed better than the autocalibration method. Comparison of the SUFI‐2 algorithm and autocalibration results showed that some snowmelt factors were sensitive to model output upstream at the Panlongjiang flow station. The 95PPU captured more than 70% of the observed streamflow at the three flow stations. The corresponding p‐factors and r‐factors suggested that some flow stations had relatively large uncertainty, especially in the prediction of some peak flows. Although uncertainty existed, statistical criteria including R² and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were reasonably determined. The model produced a useful result and can be used for further applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.