Earthquake Potential in the Zagros Region,Iran

Seismic strain and b value are used to quantify seismic potential in the Zagros region (Iran). Small b values (0.69 and 0.69) are related to large seismic moment rates (9.96×10¹⁷ and 4.12×10¹⁷) in southern zones of the Zagros, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Medium to large b values (0.72 and 0.92) are related to small seismic moment rates (2.94×10¹⁶ and 6.80×10¹⁶) in middle zones of the Zagros, indicating less frequent large earthquakes. Small b value (0.64) is related to medium seismic moment rate (1.38×10¹⁷) in middle to northern zone of the Zagros, indicating frequent large earthquakes. Large b value (0.87) is related to large seismic moment rate (2.29×10¹⁷) in northwestern zone, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Recurrence intervals of large earthquakes (M > 6) are short in southern (10 and 14 years) and northwestern (13 years) zones, while the recurrence intervals are long in the middle (46 and 114 years) and middle to northern (25 years) zones.     

Role of southeastern Sanandaj–Sirjan Zone in the tectonic evolution of Zagros Orogenic Belt,Iran

Geological studies indicate that the southeastern Sanandaj–Sirjan Zone, located in the southeastern Zagros Orogenic Belt, is subdivided transversally into the Esfahan–Sirjan Block with typical Central Iranian stratigraphic features and the Shahrekord–Dehsard Terrane consisting of Paleozoic and Lower Mesozoic metamorphic rocks. The Main Deep Fault (Abadeh Fault) is a major lithospheric fault separating the two parts. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the role of the southeastern Sanandaj–Sirjan Zone in the tectonic evolution of the southeastern Zagros Orogenic Belt on the basis of geological evidence. The new model implies that Neo‐Tethys 1 came into being when the Central Iran Microcontinent split from the northeastern margin of Gondwana during the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian. During the Late Triassic a new spreading ridge, Neo‐Tethys 2, was created to separate the Shahrekord–Dehsard Terrane from Afro–Arabian Plate. The Zagros sedimentary basin was formed on a continental passive margin, southwest of Neo‐Tethys 2. The two ophiolitic belts of Naien–Shahrebabak–Baft and Neyriz were developed to the northeast of Neo‐Tethys 1 and southwest of Neo‐Tethys 2 respectively, related to the sinking of the lithosphere of the Neo‐Tethys 1 in the Late Cretaceous. It can be concluded that deposition of the Paleocene conglomerate on the Central Iran Microcontinent and Pliocene conglomerate in the Zagros Sedimentary Basin is directly linked to the uplift generated by collision.     

Temporal characteristics of seismicity in the Alborz and Zagros regions of Iran, using a multifractal approach

Multifractal characteristics of the temporal distribution of earthquakes in the Zagros and Alborz regions of Iran were analyzed using the fixed-mass method. The generalized multifractal dimensions, singularity spectrum, mass exponents, and the asymmetry factor were calculated for these regions. The results indicate that the temporal distributions of earthquakes in the Zagros and Alborz regions are likely to be chaotic and have multifractal structures. Although both of the study areas show heterogeneous structures, the D_q and f(α_q) spectra for the Zagros region indicate that densely populated time domains are as heterogeneous as the sparsely populated ones. On the other hand, the multifractal spectra of the Alborz region show that the densely clustered time domains are more heterogeneous than the sparsely populated ones. Such a multifractal spectrum shows that there are many more sparsely populated time domains (i.e. seismic gaps) within the multifractal structure than densely populated ones.     

A uniform catalog of earthquakes for seismic hazard asesment in Iran

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Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.     

Earthquake relocation in the Central Alborz region of Iran using a non-linear probabilistic method

In this study, we calculate accurate absolute locations for nearly 3,000 shallow earthquakes (≤20 km depth) that occurred from 1996 to 2010 in the Central Alborz region of northern Iran using a non-linear probabilistic relocation algorithm on a local scale. We aim to produce a consistent dataset with a realistic assessment of location errors using probabilistic hypocenter probability density functions. Our results indicate significant improvement in hypocenter locations and far less scattering than in the routine earthquake catalog. According to our results, 816 earthquakes have horizontal uncertainties in the 0.5–3.0 km range, and 981 earthquakes are relocated with focal-depth errors less than 3.0 km, even with a suboptimal network geometry. Earthquake relocated are tightly clustered in the eastern Tehran region and are mainly associated with active faults in the study area (the Mosha and Garmsar faults). Strong historical earthquakes have occurred along the Mosha and Garmsar faults, and the relocated earthquakes along these faults show clear north-dipping structures and align along east–west lineations, consistent with the predominant trend of faults within the study region. After event relocation, all seismicity lies in the upper 20 km of the crust, and no deep seismicity (>20 km depth) has been observed. In many circumstances, the seismicity at depth does not correlate with surface faulting, suggesting that the faulting at depth does not directly offset overlying sediments.     

Comparative study of fuzzy evidential reasoning and fuzzy rule-based approaches: an illustration for water quality assessment in distribution networks

This paper presents the use of two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) frameworks based on hierarchical fuzzy inference engines for the purpose of assessing drinking water quality in distribution networks. Incommensurable and uncertain water quality parameters (WQPs) at various sampling locations of the water distribution network (WDN) are monitored. Two classes of WQPs including microbial and physicochemical parameters are considered. Partial, incomplete and subjective information on WQPs introduce uncertainty to the water quality assessment process. Likewise, conflicting WQPs result in a partially reliable assessment of the quality associated with drinking water. The proposed methodology is based on two hierarchical inference engines tuned using historical data on WQPs in the WDN and expert knowledge. Each inference engine acts as a decision-making agent specialized in assessing one aspect of quality associated with drinking water. The MCDM frameworks were developed to assess the microbial and physicochemical aspects of water quality assessment. The MCDM frameworks are based on either fuzzy evidential or fuzzy rule-based inference. Both frameworks can interpret and communicate the relative quality associated with drinking water, while the second is superior in capturing the nonlinear relationships between the WQPs and estimated water quality. More comprehensive rules will have to be generated prior to reliable water quality assessment in real-case situations. The examples presented here serve to demonstrate the proposed frameworks. Both frameworks were tested through historical data available for a WDN, and a comparison was made based on their performance in assessing levels of water quality at various sampling locations of the network.     

利用接收函数研究兴蒙造山带阿巴嘎地区的地壳结构

本文利用内蒙阿巴嘎地区布设的38个宽频带地震台站记录到的远震数据,采用P波接收函数共转换点叠加方法（CCP）揭示台站下方Moho面起伏形态,并利用H-κ方法进一步得到地壳厚度和壳内平均波速比值.结果显示,研究区地壳厚度为35~44 km,均值约为40 km,西南部的鄂尔多斯盆地边缘地壳较厚,东北部的阿巴嘎火山群地区地壳显著变薄.研究区地壳平均波速比值在1.70~1.87之间,均值为1.76,其中阿巴嘎火山地区波速比值明显偏高.CCP叠加结果显示研究区Moho界面较平缓,但在缝合带附近存在明显的变化.我们推测,新生代阿巴嘎火山地区薄的地壳和高波速比值可能是由于火山活动底侵作用引起上地幔铁镁质物质侵入下地壳所致.     

Modeling of wind gap formation and development of sedimentary basins during fold growth: application to the Zagros Fold Belt,Iran

Mountain building and landscape evolution are controlled by interactions between river dynamics and tectonic forces. Such interactions have been extensively studied, however a quantitative evaluation of tectonic/geomorphic feedbacks, which is imperative for understanding sediments routing within orogens and fold‐and‐thrust belts, remains to be undertaken. Here, we employ numerical simulations to assess the conditions of uplift and river incision necessary to deflect an antecedent drainage network during the growth of one, or several, folds. We propose that a partitioning of the river network into internal (endorheic) and longitudinal drainage arises as a result of lithological differences within the deforming crustal sedimentary cover. Using examples from the Zagros Fold Belt (ZFB), we show that drainage patterns can be linked to the non‐dimensional incision ratio R between successive lithological layers, corresponding to the ratio between their relative erodibilities or incision coefficients. Transverse drainage networks develop for uplift rates smaller than 0.8 mm yr^?1 and low incision ratios (?10 < R < 10). Intermediate drainage networks are obtained for uplift rates up to 2 mm yr^?1 and large incision ratios (R > 20). Parallel drainage networks and the formation of sedimentary basins occur for large values of incision ratio (R > 20) and uplift rates between 1 and 2 mm yr^?1. These results have implications for predicting the distribution of sediment depocenters in fold‐and‐thrust belts, which can be of direct economic interest for hydrocarbon exploration. They also put better constraints on the fluvial and geomorphic responses to fold growth induced by crustal‐scale tectonics. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The depth of seismicity in the Kermanshah region of the Zagros Mountains (Iran)

A detailed microearthquake survey in a small region of the Zagros Mountains in Iran failed to detect any shocks whose depths were greater than 20 km. One third of the shocks in the same area have depths greater than 50 km when located using teleseismic observations. Because of poor azimuthal coverage and lack of local stations these teleseismic locations are probably in error. There is therefore no reliable seismic evidence for the existence of oceanic lithosphere beneath the Zagros fold belt.     

Seismic hazard assessment of Tehran,Iran with emphasis on near-fault rupture directivity effects

Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB,Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seismic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al.(1997) model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker(2011) model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.     

Site response and source spectra of S waves in the Zagros region, Iran

S wave amplitude spectra from shallow earthquakes with magnitudes ranging between 4.2 and 6.2 in the Zagros region of Iran that occurred between 1998 and 2008 are used to examine source parameters and site response of S waves. A generalized inversion scheme has been used to separate the source, propagation path, and local site effects from S wave spectra. For removing the trade-off between source and site terms and propagation effects (including geometric and anelastic attenuation), the spectral amplitudes of the records used were corrected for attenuation and geometrical spreading function using a path model proposed by Zafarani and Soghrat (Bull Seism Soc Am 102:2031–2045, 2012) for the region. We assume a Brune’s point source model to retrieve source parameters like corner frequency, moment magnitude, and high-frequency fall off coefficient, for each event. When the source spectra are interpreted in terms of Brune’s model, the average stress drops obtained are about 7.1 and 5.9 MPa (71 and 59 bars), respectively for the eastern and western Zagros regions. Stress drops range from 1.4 to 35.0 MPa (14 to 350 bars), with no clear dependence on magnitude. The results in terms of stress drop and S wave seismic energy indicate that the Zagros events are more similar to interplate earthquakes of western North America than to intraplate events of eastern North America. The method also provides us with site responses for all 40 stations individually and is an interesting alternative to other methods, such as the H/V method. A new empirical relationship between body-wave magnitudes and moment magnitude has been proposed for the Iranian plateau using derived seismic moment from the inversion.     

Seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in terms of macroseismic intensity using a site approach

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.     

Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment

It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad (30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (M _S ≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude 4.5 ≤ M _S ≤ 6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”. For the considered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (M _p ) not on the following main shocks magnitude M _f suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region.     

Mineral potential mapping in Central Iran using fuzzy ordered weighted averaging method

The aim of this work is to introduce the application of the fuzzy ordered weighted averaging method as a straightforward knowledge‐driven approach to explore porphyry copper deposits in an airborne prospect. In this paper, the proposed method is applied to airborne geophysical (potassium radiometry, magnetometry, and frequency‐domain electromagnetic) data, geological layers (fault and host rock zones), and various extracted alteration layers from remote sensing images. The central Iranian volcanic–sedimentary belt in Kerman province of Iran that is located within the Urumieh–Dokhtar (Sahand–Bazman) magmatic arc is chosen for this study. This region has high potential of mineral occurrences, especially porphyry copper, containing some active world‐class copper mines such as Sarcheshmeh. Two evidential layers, including the downward continued map and the analytic signal of such filtered magnetic data, are generated to be used as geophysical plausible traces of porphyry copper occurrences. The low values of the resistivity layer acquired from airborne frequency‐domain electromagnetic data are also used as an electrical criterion in this study. Four remote sensing evidential layers, including argillic, phyllic, propylitic, and hydroxyl alterations, are extracted from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer images in order to map the altered areas associated with porphyry copper deposits. The Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus images are used to map iron oxide layer. Since potassium alteration is the mainstay of copper alteration, the airborne potassium radiometry data are used. Here, the fuzzy ordered weighted averaging method uses a wide range of decision strategies in order to generate numerous mineral potential/prospectivity maps. The final mineral potential map based upon desired geo‐data set indicates adequately matching of high‐potential zones with previous working mines and copper deposits.     

伊朗中北部发生强烈地震

2004年5月28日12时38分46秒(国际时),伊朗中北部发生了强烈地震。据德黑兰大学地球物理学研究所测定,此次地震的震级为里氏5．5级,震中位于马赞达兰省恰卢斯市郊区的巴拉代镇。美国国家地震信息中心(NEIC)公布的结果为：震中位于