The positive effects of increased foot patrols on the incidence of liquor infractions and assaults in the Granville Street Entertainment Area of Vancouver British Columbia Canada

Entertainment districts have high crime rates. Offences peak on the weekend during the operating hours of on-premises drinking establishments. To determine if proactive policing from May 1st to August 31st reduced the spatial density (kernel) or annual frequency of liquor infractions and assaults in Vancouver British Columbia Granville St. Entertainment Area (GEA) we analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of crime pre (2006) and post (2010, 2013) the policing intervention. Crime occurred most frequently between 1:00am and 3:00am. The frequency of weekend liquor infractions significantly (α < 0.05) decreased during the proactive policing period. The magnitude of the reduction was greater for liquor infractions than assaults. Liquor infractions decreased from 121 events in 2006, to 53 events in 2010, to 91 events in 2013. Assaults decreased from 36 events in 2006, to 34 events in 2010, to 28 events in 2013. Future patrolling should focus on north-east end of Granville St. during early morning hours (1:00am-3:00am), and consider additional patrols, to increase crime reductions. In light of the recent trend to liberalize alcohol access across British Columbia we demonstrated that targeted policing strategies can reduce alcohol-attributable crime. We also provide fine temporal and spatial scale information on the patterns of crime creating evidence-based information to support policing strategies.     

Getting Away with the Stolen Vehicle: An Investigation of Journey‐after‐Crime*

Analyses of criminals' travel patterns can provide significant suggestions to improve crime management. This study extends the investigation of criminals' travel behavior from journey‐to‐crime to journey‐after‐crime. Moreover, new methods are developed to examine the spatial patterns of location pairs when restricted by the underlying geographical process. The methods are employed to investigate criminals' journey‐after‐auto‐theft in the city of Buffalo, New York. The analyses reveal that auto thieves' trips from vehicle‐theft locations to the corresponding vehicle‐recovery locations are local in nature. The travel distances are significantly shorter than the randomly simulated trips; the travel directions are biased from the random directions as well.     

Testing for similarity in area-based spatial patterns: A nonparametric Monte Carlo approach

The proliferation of geographic information systems and point data has made the analysis of spatial point patterns of increasing interest in a variety of disciplines. Though early forms of spatial point pattern analysis were limited in their scope, current forms have been developed that provide significant insight into underlying data generating processes. This paper builds on the spatial point pattern analysis literature through the development of a nonparametric Monte Carlo spatial point pattern test (and corresponding index) to measure the degree of similarity between two spatial point patterns. The applicability of this new test is then shown using crime data.     

武汉市城市空间集聚要素的分布特征与模式

不同城市要素的集聚现象具有不同的空间模式,定量化研究城市要素集聚模式的差异和联系对于理解城市发展机理、合理制定城市规划具有重要意义。本文以武汉市为例,获取不透水表面、商业服务业网点（POI）、人口、容积率、城市道路等城市要素数据;采用核密度估计法识别城市主次中心,从城市要素的分布形态、集聚程度、集聚模式等来研究城市要素的空间分布格局特征。研究发现,武汉市呈现“一主七副”的多中心结构,各城市要素从城市中心向外呈反S型的圈层递减。采用集聚度指数衡量城市要素的集聚水平,结果显示商业POI、人口密度的集聚程度最大,其次是容积率、道路密度、不透水表面占比。高度集聚的商业POI、人口密度呈现出点状模式与带状模式相结合的分布模式,中度集聚的道路密度、容积率呈现点状模式、环状模式与轴状模式相结合的分布模式,低度集聚的不透水表面密度主要表现为环状模式。城市中心的吸引、立体空间开发等促进了城市要素的向心集聚,交通干线、稀缺景观资源的廊道效应等重塑了城市要素的空间分布形态。     

Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues

We apply several classes of stochastic multidimensional models to statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues using likelihood methods. We investigate the importance of including different earthquake parameters in the model: epicentral coordinates, hypocentral depth, time limits for interearthquake interaction, and especially spatial distribution of earthquakes as well as spatial aftershock patterns. Results of this study combined with other investigations, suggest that most distributions controlling earthquake interaction have a fractal or scale-invariant form. Developed models are used for statistical analysis of several earthquake catalogues to evaluate parameters of earthquake occurrence. These parameters are shown to be similar for shallow earthquakes of different magnitude ranges and seismogenic regions, confirming self-similarity of the earthquake process. Whereas intermediate earthquakes seem to emulate the pattern of shallow earthquake occurrence, albeit at a much smaller aftershock rate, deep earthquakes differ significantly in their properties. Predictability of standard shallow earthquake catalogues has been analysed; we present evidence that for the best available catalogues the predictability is close to 10 bits per earthquake. Several synthetic earthquake catalogues have been created and processed through the likelihood inversion scheme. The results from likelihood analysis of these catalogues confirm our approach.     

A pattern of arrests for drink driving in Hobart,Tasmania

The locations of arrests for drink driving in Hobart show a distinct concentration in the city centre. It is suggested that the distribution and characteristics of alcohol outlets and the related behaviour of certain groups led to a spatial and temporal clustering of impaired drivers. Disposition of breath testing units probably gives a simultaneous concentration of police activity in the city centre. Examination of home/arrest distances hints at the presence of parochial drinkers and drinkers using relatively distant venues which has some implications for intervention strategies. Long‐distance drivers are mainly young and attending hotels in the city centre whilst local drinkers are older.     

贝叶斯方法在犯罪时空格局研究上的应用——以长春市为例

对比分析了2008年和2018年长春市犯罪空间格局的变化特征,进而构建了贝叶斯时空分析模型,整合了犯罪时空格局演化中的固定效应、空间随机效应和时间随机效应,基于R环境中的INLA程序包对模型的各个参数进行了拟合,结合GIS制图,识别出异于总体趋势的犯罪相对风险高值区,并进一步解析了犯罪格局形成和演化的过程和规律。研究发现,犯罪总量在10 a间显著下降,犯罪数量较高的警区数量明显减少。长春市周边地区犯罪率有所提高,而城市中心区域的多数警区则明显下降。贝叶斯时空模型表明,虽然城市犯罪相对风险的平均水平较低,但其总体上却呈现出显著的增加趋势。空间效应的高值区主要集中在城市中心核心区域,特别是传统的商业网点或经济活动较为集中的警区。时间效应的高值区主要集中在城市外围地区,尤其是国家级开发区所在的警区。综合空间效应和时间效应,城市中心区域存在既是空间效应的高值区也是时间效应高值区的时空共同高风险区。贝叶斯方法在数据整合、区域异质性识别以及灵活性方面具有明显的优势,对于犯罪时空格局形成和演化规律的理解和把握上均有所助益。     

Identifying factors of influence in the spatial distribution of domestic fires

Domestic fires at the city level, being causes for casualties and causing significant material damages, are stored as a point pattern in a GIS. In this paper we apply a statistical point pattern analysis to derive major causes from related layers of information. We fit a G-function to analyse neighbourhood relations and a Strauss process for inferring causal relations. Using open-source software we find significant differences in patterns and explaining factors between the different parts of the day, in particular for different building types and income groups. We conclude that a quantitative spatial model can be fitted and that this provides a useful opportunity for fire brigades to improve planning their efforts.     

Crime concentrations and similarities in spatial crime patterns in a Brazilian context

Research within the geography of crime and spatial criminology literature most often show that crime is highly concentrated in particular places. Moreover, a subset of this literature has shown that the spatial patterns of these concentrations are different across crime types. This raises questions regarding the appropriateness of aggregating crime types (property and violent crime, for example) when the underlying spatial pattern is of interest. In this paper, using crime data from Campinas, Brazil, we investigate the crime concentrations and the similarities among different crime types across space. Similar to some recent research in another context, we find that crime is highly concentrated in Campinas but the ability to aggregate similar crime types at the street segment level is not generalizability when compared to a North American context.     

加拿大爱得蒙顿市犯罪问题的地理研究*

运用GIS技术和回归分析方法,分析加拿大爱得蒙顿市各类犯罪的空间分布规律。结果发现：城市犯罪分布的空间差异异常明显,城市内部存在少数极端的犯罪高发区;犯罪的空间分布遵循距离衰减规律,表现为距城市中心越近的地区犯罪发生密度越高,距城市中心越远的地区犯罪密度越低;犯罪发生密度与居住人口密度成正相关,即居住人口密度越高,越容易诱发犯罪,但不同类型的犯罪与居住人口密度的关联程度不一样;不同用地性质的区域犯罪发生密度存在明显差异,在各类用地中,商业区为城市犯罪的高发区。     

广州市银行业的空间布局特征与模式

以广州都市区2013年全部类别银行的1 637个银行网点为基本数据,利用平均最邻近距离、核密度函数、缓冲区分析、空间模式提炼等方法探索广州市银行业的空间布局特征及其类别差异,总结其空间分异模式。结果表明：① 广州市银行业空间不均衡性布局显著,并呈现中心集聚特征;② 不同类型银行的分布特征差异显著。国有商业银行的服务便利性和数量等级高,网点密度大,构成了广州市银行业的主体;③ 广州市银行业布局总体呈现由中心向外围逐渐递减的“圈层+扇形”空间模式。其中,核心商圈是银行业高度集聚区,中心城区密度递减最为显著,近郊区密度最低;④ 不同类型银行的空间密度模式差异显著。国有商业银行、全国性股份制银行和城市商业银行分别呈现由中心到外围非均匀递减的倒“S”型、“L”型和“阶梯型”曲线模式。外资港资银行呈现为核心商圈集聚模式。农村商业银行为均质的“一”字型直线模式。     

接触型与非接触型犯罪时空稳定性对比及其联合防控——以盗窃和电信网络诈骗为例

近年来,以盗窃为代表的接触型犯罪和以电信网络诈骗为代表的非接触型犯罪均呈多发态势,严重影响社会治安稳定。已有研究对不同类型犯罪分布模式的时空稳定性关注仍不够,且未能提出不同类型犯罪的空间联合防控策略。本文以ZG市HT区为例,以社区为分析单元,运用核密度估计、时空跃迁测度法等方法,对比分析2017年盗窃犯罪和电信网络诈骗犯罪的时空分布特征及其空间分布模式的月度稳定性,并从犯罪防控角度改进时空跃迁测度法,结合二阶聚类法识别两类犯罪联合防控空间类型。研究发现：① 两类犯罪时空稳定性差异大,盗窃犯罪的空间分布模式稳定,月度变化小;而电信网络诈骗犯罪空间稳定性整体波动起伏大,月度变化较大;② 识别出两类犯罪的四种联合防控空间类型,分别是“两类犯罪无需防控社区”“两类犯罪邻域防控社区”“盗窃犯罪热点防控、电信网络诈骗犯罪无需防控社区”“盗窃犯罪连片防控、电信网络诈骗综合防控社区”。该研究有助于了解接触型犯罪和非接触型犯罪时空特征的共性和差异性,给警务联合防控提供决策支持。     

Crime seasonality and its variations across space

Investigations into the seasonal patterns of crime date back 180 years to the beginnings of spatial criminology. This original research by Adolphe Quetelet, and much subsequent work, has shown that various crimes have a seasonal component, but the strength and timing of the respective seasonalities vary by crime type. In this paper, we first investigate the existence of seasonality for a number of different crime types, but also the variations of seasonality across space. We find that not only do the various crime types exhibit seasonal patterns, but those seasonal patterns have relatively distinct spatial patterns. This has implications for theory and policy.     

A multicriteria spatial decision support system for solving emergency service station location problems

Earthquakes occurring in urban areas constitute an important concern for emergency management and rescue services. Emergency service location problems may be formulated in discrete space or by restricting the potential location(s) to a specified finite set of points in continuous space. We propose a Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support System to identify shelters and emergency service locations in urban evacuation planning. The proposed system has emerged as an integration of the geographical information systems (GIS) and the multicriteria Decision-Making method of Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation IV (PROMETHEE IV). This system incorporates multiple and often conflicting criteria and decision-makers’ preferences into a spatial decision model. We consider three standard structural attributes (i.e., durability density, population density, and oldness density) in the form of spatial maps to determine the zones most vulnerable to an earthquake. The information on these spatial maps is then entered into the ArcGIS software to define the relevant scores for each point with regards to the aforementioned attributes. These scores will be used to compute the preference functions in PROMETHEE IV, whose net flow outranking for each alternative will be inputted in ArcGIS to determine the zones that are most vulnerable to an earthquake. The final scores obtained are integrated into a mathematical programming model designed to find the most suitable locations for the construction of emergency service stations. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method and the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms in an earthquake emergency service station planning case study in the city of Tehran.     

Minimum geocoding match rates: an international study of the impact of data and areal unit sizes

ABSTRACT

The analysis of geographically referenced data, specifically point data, is predicated on the accurate geocoding of those data. Geocoding refers to the process in which geographically referenced data (addresses, for example) are placed on a map. This process may lead to issues with positional accuracy or the inability to geocode an address. In this paper, we conduct an international investigation into the impact of the (in)ability to geocode an address on the resulting spatial pattern. We use a variety of point data sets of crime events (varying numbers of events and types of crime), a variety of areal units of analysis (varying the number and size of areal units), from a variety of countries (varying underlying administrative systems), and a locally-based spatial point pattern test to find the levels of geocoding match rates to maintain the spatial patterns of the original data when addresses are missing at random. We find that the level of geocoding success depends on the number of points and the number of areal units under analysis, but generally show that the necessary levels of geocoding success are lower than found in previous research. This finding is consistent across different national contexts.     

基于空间点模式分析的城市管理事件空间分布及演化——以武汉市江汉区为例

城市网格化管理系统经过多年运行积累了大量历史事件数据, 这类事件数据在空间上呈现明显集聚分布。确定事件发生的空间分布以及衡量空间分布的集聚程度, 能够为城市管理资源的合理调配、划分提供重要的决策支持。本文应用空间点模式分析方法, 对2011 年1-8 月间武汉市江汉区城市网格化管理系统中的两类主体事件(占道经营和垃圾处理类)进行分析, 研究发现:占道经营事件的“热点”区域1-8 月总体呈减少趋势, 而垃圾处理事件的“热点”区域整体呈递增趋势;两类事件呈现明显的空间集聚, 其特征空间尺度都为1000 m左右。研究表明, 空间点模式分析方法能够为城市管理者提供一种针对城市事件空间集聚模式的直观的可视化分析手段, 以及对空间集聚程度的定量分析方法, 并可为进一步统计建模分析奠定基础。     

Street profile analysis: A new method for mapping crime on major roadways

Street profile analysis is a new method for analyzing temporal and spatial crime patterns along major roadways in metropolitan areas. This crime mapping technique allows for the identification of crime patterns along these street segments. These are linear spaces where aggregate crime patterns merge with crime attractors/generators and human movement to demonstrate how directionality is embedded in city infrastructures. Visually presenting the interplay between these criminological concepts and land use can improve police crime management strategies. This research presents how this crime mapping technique can be applied to a major roadway in Burnaby, Canada. This technique is contrasted with other crime mapping methods to demonstrate the utility of this approach when analyzing the rate and velocity of crime patterns overtime and in space.     

ZG市诈骗犯罪的时空分布与影响因素

诈骗犯罪是现代城市中亟待解决的一大社会难题。现有研究多从社会学角度,基于微观层次探讨影响诈骗受害的个人属性特征,缺乏从地理学视角对诈骗受害者生存环境中的中宏观层次因素的考虑。本文基于犯罪地理学视角,综合运用平均最近邻、核密度以及负二项回归等研究方法,对ZG市5类诈骗警情的时空分布特征和基于建成环境与社会环境两大维度的影响因素进行了深入探讨。结果表明：① 各类诈骗的时间分布规律各异,但整体上呈现出工作日高于休息日、下午或晚上高于上午、凌晨时段为最低的特征;② 和其他类型的城市犯罪类似,诈骗犯罪整体呈现出与老城区距离衰减的“多中心”显著性集聚特征;各类型诈骗热点的空间分布大同小异,多分布在城市的老城区、CBD、火（汽）车站、城中村或高校布局的周边地带;③ 各类诈骗犯罪的空间分布影响因素各异,但整体表现出与银行网点、旅游景点、道路密度、土地利用混合度、高校等建成环境因素高度相关;与购买商品房家庭占比、受教育水平、人口老龄化和城镇化水平等社会环境显著相关的特性。本文拓展了犯罪地理学领域对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,证实了各类诈骗犯罪符合日常活动理论的理论假设,对诈骗受害情景预防具有重要意义。     

天山北坡经济带“组团”点轴城镇空间结构研究

以1990-2007年天山北坡城镇GDP、土地、人口、交通数据为资料,根据城镇空间分布“最近邻点指数”理论,空间相互作用和分形理论,分析了天山北坡城镇空间分布特征,构建了绿洲城镇相互作用强度判断模型,提出并论证了“组团”点-轴空间结构模式优越性。研究发现:①天山北坡经济带城镇人口规模和经济规模在空间结构呈现3个城镇高密集区,两个城镇稀疏区特征;②传统绿洲城镇空间结构下,城镇接受中心城市辐射差异很大,不利于城镇整体发展;③以“乌鲁木齐都市圈”为点的“组团”点-轴空间结构模式,有利于中心组团城镇对其他城镇的辐射;④以“５组团”为点的点-轴模式有利于组团之间的相互作用,有利于城镇发展;⑤天山北坡经济带向伊犁河谷延伸有利于中心组团城镇对其他组团城镇的辐射。     

Rockfall in the Port Hills of Christchurch: Seismic and non‐seismic fatality risk on roads

Numerous rockfalls released during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence affected vital road sections for local commuters. We quantified rockfall fatality risk on two main routes by adapting a risk approach for roads originally developed for snow avalanche risk. We present results of the collective and individual fatality risks for traffic flow and waiting traffic. Waiting traffic scenarios particularly address the critical spatial‐temporal dynamics of risk, which should be acknowledged in operational risk management. Comparing our results with other risks commonly experienced in New Zealand indicates that local rockfall risk is close to tolerability thresholds and likely exceeds acceptable risk.