Improvement of spatial interpolation accuracy of daily maximum air temperature in urban areas using a stacking ensemble technique

ABSTRACT

The reliable and robust monitoring of air temperature distribution is essential for urban thermal environmental analysis. In this study, a stacking ensemble model consisting of multi-linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF) optimized by the SVR is proposed to interpolate the daily maximum air temperature (T_max) during summertime in a mega urban area. A total of 10 geographic variables, including the clear-sky averaged land surface temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index, were used as input variables. The stacking model was compared to Cokriging, three individual data-driven methods, and a simple average ensemble model, all through leave-one-station-out cross validation. The stacking model showed the best performance by improving the generalizability of the individual models and mitigating the sensitivity to the extreme daily T_max. This study demonstrates that the stacking ensemble method can improve the accuracy of spatial interpolation of environmental variables in various research fields.     

Area Delineation and Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Heat Island in Lanzhou City,China Using Remote Sensing Imagery

One of the key impacts of rapid urbanization on the environment is the effect of urban heat island (UHI). By using the Landsat TM/ETM+ thermal infrared remote sensing data of 1993, 2001 and 2011 to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST) of Lanzhou City, and by adopting object-oriented fractal net evolution approach (FNEA) to make image segmentation of the LST, the UHI elements were extracted. The G* index spatial aggregation analysis was made to calculate the urban heat island ratio index (URI), and the landscape metrics were used to quantify the changes of the spatial pattern of the UHI from the aspects of quantity, shape and structure. The impervious surface distribution and vegetation coverage were extracted by a constrained linear spectral mixture model to explore the relationships of the impervious surface distribution and vegetation coverage with the UHI. The information of urban built-up area was extracted by using UBI (NDBI-NDVI) index, and the effects of urban expansion on city thermal environment were quantitatively analyzed, with the URI and the LST grade maps built. In recent 20 years, the UHI effect in Lanzhou City was strengthened, with the URI increased by 1.4 times. The urban expansion had a spatiotemporal consistency with the UHI expansion. The patch number and density of the UHI landscape were increased, the patch shape and the whole landscape tended to be complex, the landscape became more fragmented, and the landscape connectivity was decreased. The heat island strength had a negative linear correlation with the urban vegetation coverage, and a positive logarithmic correlation with the urban impervious surface coverage.     

1979年—2014年三峡库区月平均气温的时空变化分析

三峡区域气温变化长期以来受到科研人员和公众的关注。受三峡复杂地形的影响,仅仅基于气象站点观测数据很难准确获取区域气温变化的空间格局,遥感技术则可以通过提供空间连续的地表观测数据来辅助气温变化分析。以广义加性模型GAM (General Additive Model)为插值算法,以高程和夜间地表温度(LST_night)遥感产品为辅助变量,估算三峡库区1979年—2014年1 km空间分辨率的月气温数据,在此基础上分析了气温变化趋势的时空特征及其与高程和森林覆盖率的关系。研究表明,(1)在插值算法中引入遥感产品LST_night作为辅助变量可以明显改善气温估算精度,冬春季的改善幅度高于夏秋季;(2)三峡库区年平均气温在1997年后明显上升,但在2003年库区蓄水后无明显变化趋势,几乎所有月(除12月以外)的气温都呈现上升趋势,增温趋势最显著是3月和9月,3月增温主要来自于库区东部山区的贡献,而9月增温主要来自于库区西部平原的贡献;(3)多数月份(除7月、8月、9月以外)的低温上升速度超过高温上升速度,导致区域气温的动态变化范围缩小;(4)三峡库区年平均气温上升速度与高程呈正相关,即海拔越高,升温越快,但在同一海拔高度处,森林覆盖率越高,年均气温上升速度越慢,暗示森林具有抑制增温的作用。     

城市热岛空间格局及其变化的图形信息特征分析

热岛效应是城市化进程中产生的特有环境问题。基于Landsat TM/ETM+（1989、2001、2007、2013年）遥感影像完成哈尔滨地面亮温定量反演、标准化和等级划分等处理,并分析城市热岛空间分布特征和时空演变规律。基于地学信息图谱理论,定量分析24 a间热岛效应图谱信息变化特征,探究城市热岛格局的时空演变进程和形成机制,揭示城市化进程与热岛效应之间的响应关系。结果表明,随着哈尔滨城市化进程加速,4级热岛效应呈递增趋势,面积比例分别为4.36%、5.69%、6.29%和7.12%,主要分布在道外区和铁路沿线地带;植被和水体区域的地面温度较低,其边缘温度更低;反复变化型面积最大,后期变化型面积最小,面积比例分别为33.30%和7.30%。地学信息图谱分析可为城市热岛效应随城市化演变趋势提供准确、丰富的信息,对全面分析城市热岛的形成和发展具有重要的意义。     

A simplified urban-extent algorithm to characterize surface urban heat islands on a global scale and examine vegetation control on their spatiotemporal variability

We develop a new algorithm, the simplified urban-extent (SUE) algorithm, to estimate the surface urban heat island (UHI) intensity at a global scale. We implement the SUE algorithm on the Google Earth Engine platform using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images to calculate the UHI intensity for over 9500 urban clusters using over 15 years of data, making this one of the most comprehensive characterizations of the surface UHI to date. The results from this algorithm are validated against previous multi-city studies to demonstrate the suitability of the method. The dataset created is then filtered for elevation differentials and percentage of urban area and used to estimate the diurnal, monthly, and long-term variability in the surface UHI in different climate zones. The global mean surface UHI intensity is 0.85 °C during daytime and 0.55 °C at night. Cities in arid climate show distinct diurnal and seasonal patterns, with higher surface UHI during nighttime (compared to daytime) and two peaks throughout the year. The diurnal variability in surface UHI is highest for equatorial climate zone (0.88 °C) and lowest for arid zone (0.53 °C). The seasonality is highest in the snow climate zone and lowest for equatorial climate zone. While investigating the change in the surface UHI over a decade and a half, we find a consistent increase in the daytime surface UHI in the urban clusters of the warm temperate climate zone (0.04 °C/decade) and snow climate zone (0.05 °C/decade). Only arid climate zones show a statistically significant increase in the nighttime surface UHI intensity (0.03 °C/decade). Globally, the change is mainly seen during the daytime (0.03 °C/decade). Finally, the importance of vegetation differential between urban and rural areas on the spatiotemporal variability is examined. Vegetation has a strong control on the seasonal variability of the surface UHI and may also partly control the long-term variability. The complete UHI data are available through this website (https://yceo.yale.edu/research/global-surface-uhi-explorer) and allows the user to query the UHI of urban clusters using a simple interface.     

On urban heat island of Beijing based on landsat TM data

Land surface temperature (LST) of Beijing area was retrieved from Landsat TM thermal band data utilizing a radiative transfer equation and the urban heat island (HUI) effects of Beijing and its relationship with land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were discussed. The result of LST showed that the urban LST was evidently higher than the suburban one. The average urban LST was found to 4. 5°C and 9°C higher than the suburban and outer suburban temperature, respectively, which demonstrated the prominent UHI effects in Beijing. Prominent negative correlation between LST and NDVI was found in the urban area, which suggested the low percent vegetation cover in the urban area was the main cause of the urban heat island.     

A preliminary exploration of the cooling effect of tree shade in urban landscapes

Mitigating urban heat island (UHI) effects, especially under climate change, is necessary for the promotion of urban sustainability. Shade is one of the most important functions provided by urban trees for mitigating UHI. However, the cooling effect of tree shade has not been adequately investigated. In this study, we used a simple and straightforward method to quantify the spatial and temporal variation of tree shade and examined its effect on land surface temperature (LST). We used the hillshade function in a geographic information system to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of tree shade by integrating sun location and tree height. Relationships between shade and LST were then compared in two cities, Tampa, Florida and New York City (NYC), New York. We found that: (1) Hillshade function combining the sun location and tree height can accurately capture the spatial and temporal variation of tree shade; (2) Tree shade, particularly at 07:30, has significant cooling effect on LST in Tampa and NYC; and (3) Shade has a stronger cooling effect in Tampa than in NYC, which is most likely due to the differences in the ratio of tree canopy to impervious surface cover, the spatial arrangements of trees and buildings, and their relative heights. Comparing the cooling effects of tree shade in two cities, this study provides important insights for urban planners for UHI mitigation in different cities.     

城市热岛的遥感研究进展

系统总结了应用遥感技术开展城市热岛研究的数据、方法与成果。对国内外学者有关城市热岛的形态结构、过程变化及成因分析等方面的研究内容进行了较为详细的评述，在此基础上，对未来城市热岛遥感研究的方向进行了展望。     

On Urban Heat Island of Beijng Based on Landsat TM Data

IntroductionThe scientists have begun to retrieve land sur-face temperature (LST) fromsatellite data sincethe launch of TIROS-Ⅱin 60s of the 20th centu-ry . With the development of remote sensingtechnology and its application, more and moreLST retrieval …     

成都平原中等城市的热岛效应动态特征对比研究

城市热岛效应是当前城市气候与城市生态环境的研究热点。研究使用Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像获取城市建成区信息和反演亮度温度,进而评价成都平原6个中等城市的热岛强度、热岛发育程度以及空间动态演变特征。研究发现,在"评价初期→评价中期→评价末期"过程中,成都平原6个中等城市的热岛强度前期增强、后期减弱;城市旧城区的热岛规模普遍减小,这说明,旧城区热环境有所改善,而城市扩展区的热岛规模普遍增大,是因城市扩展明显改变了地表自然环境,导致热岛效应出现,这与城市化进程的内在规律基本一致。绵阳等城市的研究成果表明,即使城市规模扩大,只要城市规划科学合理,并注重城市生态环境的保护,城市热岛效应也能得到有效缓解。     

Remote detection of bare soil moisture using a surface-temperature-based soil evaporation transfer coefficient

An approach for estimating soil moisture is presented and tested by using surface-temperature-based soil evaporation transfer coefficient (h_a), a coefficient recently proposed through the equation h_a = (T_s − T_a)/(T_sd − T_a), where T_s, T_sd, and T_a are land surface temperature (LST), reference soil (dry soil without evaporation) surface temperature, and air temperature respectively. Our analysis and controllable experiment indicated that h_a closely related to soil moisture, and therefore, a relationship between field soil moisture and h_a could be developed for soil moisture estimation. Field experiments were carried out to test the relationship between h_a and soil moisture. Time series Aqua-MODIS images were acquired between 11 Sep. 2006 and 1 Nov. 2007. Then, MODIS derived h_a and simultaneous measured soil moisture for different soil depths were used to establish the relations between the two variables. Results showed that there was a logarithmic relationship between soil moisture and h_a (P < 0.01). These logarithmic models were further validated by introducing another ground-truth data gathered from 46 meteorological stations in Hebei Province. Good agreement was observed between the measured and estimated soil moisture with RMSE of 0.0374 cm³/cm³ and 0.0503 cm³/cm³ for surface energy balance method at two soil depths (10 cm and 20 cm), with RMSE of 0.0467 cm³/cm³ and 0.0581 cm³/cm³ for maximum temperature method at two soil depths. For vegetated surfaces, the ratio of h_a and NDVI suggested to be considered. The proposed approach has a great potential for soil moisture and drought evaluation by remote sensing.     

Study on the urban heat island effects and its relationship with surface biophysical characteristics using MODIS imageries

This study assesses surface urban heat island (UHI) and its associated surface physical characteristics using remote sensing approaches. TERRA/MODIS images acquired in 2005 in three different seasons were selected to generate land surface tem-perature and surface characteristics for the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metropolitan area in China. The intensity of urban heat is-land effects and its seasonal variations were examined. The result showed that UHI effects were significant both in the summer and the spri...     

Bi-temporal characterization of land surface temperature in relation to impervious surface area,NDVI and NDBI,using a sub-pixel image analysis

As more than 50% of the human population are situated in cities of the world, urbanization has become an important contributor to global warming due to remarkable urban heat island (UHI) effect. UHI effect has been linked to the regional climate, environment, and socio-economic development. In this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) imagery, respectively acquired in 1989 and 2001, were utilized to assess urban area thermal characteristics in Fuzhou, the capital city of Fujian province in south-eastern China. As a key indicator for the assessment of urban environments, sub-pixel impervious surface area (ISA) was mapped to quantitatively determine urban land-use extents and urban surface thermal patterns. In order to accurately estimate urban surface types, high-resolution imagery was utilized to generate the proportion of impervious surface areas. Urban thermal characteristics was further analysed by investigating the relationships between the land surface temperature (LST), percent impervious surface area, and two indices, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). The results show that correlations between NDVI and LST are rather weak, but there is a strong positive correlation between percent ISA, NDBI and LST. This suggests that percent ISA, combined with LST, and NDBI, can quantitatively describe the spatial distribution and temporal variation of urban thermal patterns and associated land-use/land-cover (LULC) conditions.     

A Study on Urban Thermal Field of Shanghai Using Multi-source Remote Sensing Data

Landsat TM/ETM and MODIS satellite remote sensing data from 1995 to 2012 are used to study Shanghai’s urban heat island (UHI) in China from the perspectives of time and space. Furthermore the UHI characteristics are analyzed in terms of landscape ecology theory and the urban heat island effect ratio (UHIER). The results show that: in the time sequence, the land brightness temperature (LBT) of Shanghai in 2000 is the strongest and the one in 2003 is the weakest. The urban area LBT has continued to decline since 2003, but for the entire Shanghai, it has had an overall increase. In the spatial distribution, LBT structure is mainly dominated by urban area from 1995 to 2000; but since the rapid development of built-up area of Pudong, Songjiang, Minhang and Jiading Districts in 2000, the LBT landscape pattern which was primarily urban area-centered and multicenter built-up area-supplemented has been gradually formed.     

采用ASTER影像进行地表温度反演与分析

基于ASTER遥感影像数据,运用劈窗算法对重庆市主城区进行了地表温度反演,得出重庆市主城区地表温度空间分布规律,结果表明重庆市主城区地表温度明显比郊区地表温度高,城区与近效温差达6.34℃,城市热岛效应明显。     

Urban heat island monitoring and analysis using a non-parametric model: A case study of Indianapolis

A procedure for the monitoring an urban heat island (UHI) was developed and tested over a selected location in the Midwestern United States. Nine counties in central Indiana were selected and their UHI patterns were modeled. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) images taken in 2005 were used for the research. The images were sorted based on cloud cover over the study area. The resulting 94 day and night images were used for the modeling. The technique of process convolution was then applied to the images in order to characterize the UHIs. This process helped to characterize the LST data into a continuous surface and the UHI data into a series of Gaussian functions. The diurnal temperature profiles and UHI intensity attributes (minimum, maximum and magnitude) of the characterized images were analyzed for variations. Skin temperatures within any given image varied between 2–15 ^°C and 2–8 ^°C for the day and night images, respectively. The magnitude of the UHI varied from 1–5 ^°C and 1–3 ^°C over the daytime and nighttime images, respectively. Three dimensional (3-D) models of the day and night images were generated and visually explored for patterns through animation. A strong and clearly evident UHI was identified extending north of Marion County well into Hamilton County. This information coincides with the development and expansion of northern Marion County during the past few years in contrast to the southern part. To further explore these results, an Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) 2004 land use land cover (LULC) dataset was analyzed with respect to the characterized UHI. The areas with maximum heat signatures were found to have a strong correlation with impervious surfaces. The entire process of information extraction was automated in order to facilitate the mining of UHI patterns at a global scale. This research has proved to be promising approach for the modeling and mining of UHIs from large amount of remote sensing images. Furthermore, this research also aids in 3-D diachronic analysis.     

Spatially non-stationary effect of underlying driving factors on surface urban heat islands in global major cities

Urban heat island (UHI) effect is among the most typical characteristics of urban climate. The analysis of surface UHI (SUHI) mechanisms has received the most extensive attention in the world. Here, we quantify the diurnal and seasonal SUHI intensity (SUHII) in global 419 major cities during the period 2003-2013. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) was established to assess the relationships between SUHII and several driving factors, and it further was compared to the ordinary least square (OLS) and stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) models. We show that GWR model has higher determination coefficient (R²) than OLS and SMLR models (Time: summer daytime, summer night, winter daytime and winter nighttime; GWR: 0.805, 0.458, 0.699 and 0.582; OLS: 0.732, 0.347, 0.473 and 0.320; SMLR: 0.732, 0.341, 0.468 and 0.316), indicating the spatially non-stationarity in the relationships. During the day, both vegetation activity and tree cover fraction have stronger cooling effect on SUHI in the summer of Asia. At night, there are stronger albedo effects on SUHI in the summer of Eastern Asia and Western North America and in the winter of Eastern Asia. Furthermore, temperature has stronger effect on daytime SUHI in Africa, Europe and South America in summer, and precipitation has stronger effect on nighttime SUHI in Africa and Europe in summer. Our results emphasize the spatial variation of the relationships between SUHII and relevant driving factors across global major cities, further indicating that the spatially non-stationary effect of driving factors on SUHII need to be considered in the future.     

Roles of horizontal and vertical tree canopy structure in mitigating daytime and nighttime urban heat island effects

The urban heat island (UHI) is increasingly recognized as a serious, worldwide problem because of urbanization and climate change. Urban vegetation is capable of alleviating UHI and improving urban environment by shading together with evapotranspiration. While the impacts of abundance and spatial configuration of vegetation on land surface temperature (LST) have been widely examined, very little attention has been paid to the role of vertical structure of vegetation in regulating LST. In this study, we investigated the relationships between horizontal/vertical structure characteristics of urban tree canopy and LST as well as diurnal divergence in Nanjing City, China, with the help of high resolution vegetation map, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and various statistical analysis methods. The results indicated that composition, configuration and vertical structure of tree canopy were all significantly related to both daytime LST and nighttime LST. Tree canopy showed stronger influence on LST during the day than at night. Note that the contribution of composition of tree canopy to explaining spatial heterogeneity of LST, regardless of day and night, was the highest, followed by vertical structure and configuration. Combining composition, configuration and vertical structure of tree canopy can take advantage of their respective advantages, and best explain variation in both daytime LST and nighttime LST. As for the independent importance of factors affecting spatial variation of LST, percent cover of tree canopy (PLAND), mean tree canopy height (TH_Mean), amplitude of tree canopy height (TA) and patch cohesion index (COHESION) were the most influential during the day, while the most important variables were PLAND, maximum height of tree canopy (TH_Max), variance of tree canopy height (TH_SD) and COHESION at night. This research extends our understanding of the impacts of urban trees on the UHI effect from the horizontal to three-dimensional space. In addition, it may offer sustainable and effective strategies for urban designers and planners to cope with increasing temperature.     

Object‐oriented tracking of thematic and spatial behaviors of urban heat islands

Modeling thematic and spatial dynamic behaviors of urban heat islands (UHIs) over time is important for understanding the evolution of this phenomenon to mitigate the warming effect in urban areas. Although previous studies conceptualized that a UHI only has a single life cycle with spatial behaviors, a UHI can be detected to appear and disappear several times periodically in terms of thematic and spatial integrated behaviors. Such multiple behaviors have not yet been illustrated with proof or evidence. This study conceptualizes a UHI as an object which has thematic and spatial behaviors simultaneously and proposes several graphs to depict periodic life‐cycle transitions triggered by behaviors. The conceptualized behaviors have been modeled and implemented in an object‐relational database management system and temperature readings collected from numerous weather stations were interpolated as temperature images per hour. The results of this study indicate that the model could track the spatial and thematic evolution of UHIs continuously and reveal their periodical patterns and abnormal cases.