Modelling long term stream acidification trends in upland wales at plynlimon

Historical reconstructions and predictions of streamwater acidification are presented for moorland and afforested catchments in the Welsh Uplands at Plynlimon. MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) is validated by application to an afforested catchment. MAGIC is used to illustrate that atmospheric deposition is primarily responsible for stream acidification but that conifer afforestation can enhance stream acidity. The historical trends determined by the model illustrate that long-term acidification has been present since the turn of the century and will continue unless either deposition levels are reduced significantly or liming is undertaken on a major scale.     

On modelling the effects of afforestation on acidification in heterogeneous catchments at different spatial and temporal scales

A modelling approach is presented for simulating and predicting future changes in streamwater Gran alkalinity throughout a large, heterogeneous river system. The methodology is based on integrating End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA), the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) and spatial data describing the catchment characteristics stored on a Geographical Information System (GIS). These are integrated within a Functional Unit Network (FUN) to predict the changes in Gran alkalinity resulting from possible future changes in atmospheric deposition and land use (low intensity afforestation) in the River Dee catchment, NE Scotland. Model results indicate that declining sulphate and constant nitrogen deposition, combined with low intensity Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) afforestation are unlikely to contribute significantly to streamwater acidification.     

Prediction of future short-term stream chemistry — a modelling approach

The problem of predicting future short-term chemical behaviour in acidic and acid-sensitive streams is addressed. A relatively simple method is presented which combines a chemical technique for splitting the hydrograph into ground water and soil water components, based on the conservative component acid neutralization capacity, with the long-term hydrochemical model (MAGIC) in a ‘two-box’ mode. This method, coupled with a chemical speciation program (ALCHEMI), is used to assess short-term variations in stream chemistry with change in atmospheric deposition chemistry. The method is applied for a semi-natural moorland catchment in mid-Wales (Afon Gwy). For both hydrogen ion and inorganic aluminium, the modelled stream mixing relationships are non-linear, particularly at low hydrogen ion concentrations. The results also show that the relationship between hydrogen ion and inorganic aluminium concentrations varies with time in the stream. This result has important implications as it implies that aluminium concentrations will not recover, with reduced anthropogenic sulphur deposition, as rapidly as has previously been thought. Two methods, for use with critical load evaluation of ecological stress, are presented for describing the changes occurring: the hydrogen ion and inorganic aluminium concentration duration curve; the hydrogen ion and inorganic aluminium incident frequenty diagram.     

Modelling stream acidification in afforested catchments: An assessment of the relative effects of acid deposition and afforestation

A model of the combined long-term effects of acidic deposition and forest growth has been developed and calibrated for an upland site in Scotland. The model is used to perform a series of simulation experiments to assess the relative effects of afforestation and acidic deposition on soil and surface water chemistry. The experiments compare and contrast: (a) the simulated historical effects of increased acidic deposition and forest growth, both individually and in combination; (b) the simulated future effects of various levels of reduction of deposition in combination with the forestry strategies of harvesting with and without replanting. Results indicate that historical acidification of surface waters in areas receiving high levels of acidic deposition has been exacerbated by afforestation practices. Afforestation in the absence of acidic deposition, however, has had a lesser effect on surface water acidification even though the nutrient demands of forest growth have caused significant soil acidification. Comparisons of future forest management strategies in conjunction with likely deposition reductions indicate that, in sensitive areas, replanting of a felled forest without treatment of the soil by addition of base cations, should not be undertaken even if significant deposition reductions are realised.     

Patterns and Levels of Organochlorines (DDTs, PCBs, non-ortho PCBs and PCDD/Fs) in Male Harbour Porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) from the Baltic Sea, the Kattegat-Skagerrak Seas and the West Coast of Norway

Patterns and levels of chlorinated aromatic contaminants (DDTs, PCBs, non-ortho PCBs and PCDD/Fs) in blubber tissue were compared among six sample groups of male harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) from the Baltic Sea, the Kattegat-Skagerrak Seas and the west coast of Norway. A principal component and classification analysis showed that mature harbour porpoises from the Baltic had significantly different contaminant patterns than animals from the Kattegat-Skagerrak and Norway. ANOVAs showed that mature porpoises from the Baltic had higher levels of ΣPCB and several individual PCBs and PCDD/Fs than the Kattegat-Skagerrak and the Norwegian samples and higher ΣDDT than the Norwegian. A comparison between immature porpoises showed that Baltic animals had higher levels of ΣPCDD/F than the corresponding sample from the Kattegat-Skagerrak. The levels of ΣDDT, ΣPCB and Σnon-ortho PCB were significantly higher in animals collected during 1978–81 compared to animals collected in 1988–90 indicating a temporal decline of these organochlorines in the Kattegat-Skagerrak Seas. The contaminant levels recorded in the Baltic Sea are a serious cause for concern and could have management implications for the already threatened harbour porpoises in this area.     

Use of a parsimonious rainfall–run‐off model for predicting hydrological response in ungauged basins

A new parameter parsimonious rainfall–run‐off model, the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, is used to simulate hydrological time series at ungauged sites in the Lygne basin in Norway. The model parameters were estimated as functions of catchment characteristics determined by geographical information system. The multiple regression equations relating catchment characteristics and model parameters were trained from 84 calibrated catchments located all over Norway, and all model parameters showed significant correlations with catchment characteristics. The significant correlation coefficients (with p‐value < 0.05) ranged from 0.22 to 0.55. The suitability of DDD for predictions in ungauged basins was tested for 17 catchments not used to estimate the multiple regression equations. For ten of the 17 catchments, deviations in Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criteria between the calibrated and regionalised model were less than 0.1, and for two calibrated catchments within the Lygne basin, the deviations were less than 0.08. The median NSE for the regionalized DDD for the 17 catchments for two time series was 0.66 and 0.72. Deviations in NSE between calibrated and regionalised models are well explained by the deviations between calibrated and regressed parameters describing spatial snow distribution and snowmelt respectively. The quality of the simulated run‐off series for the ungauged sites in the Lygne basin was assessed by comparing flow indices describing high, medium and low flow estimated from observed run‐off at the 17 catchments and for the simulated run‐off series. The indices estimated for the simulated series were generally well within the ranges defined by the 17 observed series. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) of pore water of contaminated marine sediments collected from Hong Kong waters

Marine sediment can function both as a source and as a sink of marine chemical contaminants. The toxicity of contaminated marine sediment can be assessed by toxic evaluation of its pore water, the inter-particle water of sediment, because toxicants in the pore water may be bioavailable to marine organisms. In this study, the toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) was performed to identify the major toxicants in the pore water of marine sediment collected in Hong Kong waters. In Phase 1 TIE, the suspected toxicants were characterized as anions or organic compounds that are either oxidizable or filterable in alkaline medium. In Phase 2 TIE, the suspected toxicants were identified as sulfide (S²⁻) based on the reduction of toxicity due to lowering of sulfide concentrations by experimental manipulations. The mass balance and spiking analyses in Phase 3 confirmed that S²⁻ was one of the major toxicants and that some non-toxic unknown compounds measured by LC–MS, which was removed by C18 solid phase extraction, enhanced the toxicity of S²⁻ in the pore water samples.     

气候变化对长江流域汉江和赣江径流的影响

近几年来,国家气候中心己经建立了中国主要四大流域气候对水资源影响评估的模式框架.本文拟进一步证明其中之一的两参数分布式月水量平衡水文模式对长江之上汉江和赣江两子流域径流的模拟能力,结果表明该水文模式对目前气候条件下径流模拟效果较好,运行稳定,可用于实时业务运行.在此基础上,利用ECHAM4和HadCM2两GCM(General Circulation Model)未来气候情景模拟结果及目前实测气候情况,对汉江和赣江两子流域的径流对未来气候变化的敏感性进行评估.经检验,两GCM对未来气候,特别是降水情景模拟存在一定差异,因此,造成径流对气候变化的响应不同,这充分反映了全球模式模拟结果不确定性在气候变化影响研究中的重要性.     

The response of a gravel‐bed river planform configuration to flow variations and bed reworking: a modelling study

A 2D depth‐averaged model has been developed for simulating water flow, sediment transport and morphological changes in gravel‐bed rivers. The model was validated with a series of laboratory experiments and then applied to the Nove reach of the Brenta River (Northern Italy) to assess its bed material transport, interpret channel response to a series of intensive flood events (R.I. ≈ 10 years) and provide a possible evolutionary scenario for the medium term. The study reach is 1400 m long with a mean slope of 0.0039 m m^?1. High‐resolution digital terrain models were produced combining LiDAR data with colour bathymetry techniques. Extensive field sedimentological surveys were also conducted for surface and subsurface material. Data were uploaded in the model and the passage of two consecutive high intensity floods was simulated. The model was run under several hypotheses of sediment supply: one considering substantial equilibrium between sediment input and transport capacity, and the others reducing the sediment supply. The sediment supply was then calibrated comparing channel morphological changes as observed in the field and calculated by the model. Annual bed material transport was assessed and compared with other techniques. Low‐frequency floods (R.I. ≈ 1.5 years) are expected to produce negligible changes in the channel while high floods may erode banks rather than further incising the channel bed. Location and distribution of erosion and deposition areas within the Nove reach were predicted with acceptable biases stemming from imperfections of the model and the specified initial, boundary and forcing conditions. A medium‐term evolutionary scenario simulation underlined the different response to and impact of a consecutive sequence of floods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the rainfall chemistry of a mountainous area in the Cevennes National Park (Mont-Lozere, southern France)

Nine years of bulk precipitation chemistry data for a mountainous site in southern France are presented. The mean rainwater is of moderate acidity (pH 4.63, alkalinity −4 μEql⁻¹) even though there is high, non-marine, deposition of sulphur (near 20 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). Based on the statistical characteristics of the data set, three major sources of elements are identified: long range pollution, Mediterranean sea salt aerosols and aeolian erosion dust, mainly from the Sahara. Most of the sulphur in the rainfall is present as neutral sulphate salts, owing to the latter being rich in alkaline minerals; this counteracts the strong acid input.     

Modeling the Yellow River sediment flux and its deposition patterns under climatological conditions

A numerical sediment transport model was embedded into a coupled wave-tide-circulation model to quantitatively estimate the suspended sediment fluxes (SSF) and distribution in different areas for the Yellow River derived sediment. The model is validated by comparing model simulated sediment deposition rates with those from observations. Simulated results show that the SSF of the Yellow River across two major sections (the Bohai Strait and the 37° N section) are highest during September and October, whereas for the 32° N section the flux is negligibly small (less than 0.1 kg/s). We demonstrate that the sediment flux is primarily driven by the buoyancy forcing of the Yellow River freshwater discharge and modulated by the wind-driven surface wave and circulation patterns in this region. The SSF across the Bohai Strait is about 30 % of the Yellow River discharge, while across the 37° N section it is 15.8 %. Therefore, about 70 % of the total discharged Yellow River sediments are deposited in the Bohai Sea, 14.1 % in the North Yellow Sea, and 13.9 % in the South Yellow Sea. There are two deposition branches in the Yellow Sea. The primary one is located off the eastern tip of the Shandong Peninsula and extends to the southwest off the coastline, which is consistent with the observed “Ω”-shape deposition pattern. This simulated tongue shape deposition pattern is isolated from the north by the strong resuspension off the eastern tip of Shandong Peninsula. The secondary branch extends to the middle of the South Yellow Sea and has been strengthened by resuspension process. The two deposition branches are separated by the wintertime Yellow Sea Warm Current in the bottom layer.     

Simulating pan‐Arctic runoff with a macro‐scale terrestrial water balance model

A terrestrial hydrological model, developed to simulate the high‐latitude water cycle, is described, along with comparisons with observed data across the pan‐Arctic drainage basin. Gridded fields of plant rooting depth, soil characteristics (texture, organic content), vegetation, and daily time series of precipitation and air temperature provide the primary inputs used to derive simulated runoff at a grid resolution of 25 km across the pan‐Arctic. The pan‐Arctic water balance model (P/WBM) includes a simple scheme for simulating daily changes in soil frozen and liquid water amounts, with the thaw–freeze model (TFM) driven by air temperature, modelled soil moisture content, and physiographic data. Climate time series (precipitation and air temperature) are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project for the period 1980–2001. P/WBM‐generated maximum summer active‐layer thickness estimates differ from a set of observed data by an average of 12 cm at 27 sites in Alaska, with many of the differences within the variability (1σ) seen in field samples. Simulated long‐term annual runoffs are in the range 100 to 400 mm year^?1. The highest runoffs are found across northeastern Canada, southern Alaska, and Norway, and lower estimates are noted along the highest latitudes of the terrestrial Arctic in North America and Asia. Good agreement exists between simulated and observed long‐term seasonal (winter, spring, summer–fall) runoff to the ten Arctic sea basins (r = 0·84). Model water budgets are most sensitive to changes in precipitation and air temperature, whereas less affect is noted when other model parameters are altered. Increasing daily precipitation by 25% amplifies annual runoff by 50 to 80% for the largest Arctic drainage basins. Ignoring soil ice by eliminating the TFM sub‐model leads to runoffs that are 7 to 27% lower than the control run. The results of these model sensitivity experiments, along with other uncertainties in both observed validation data and model inputs, emphasize the need to develop improved spatial data sets of key geophysical quantities (particularly climate time series) to estimate terrestrial Arctic hydrological budgets better. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coprostanol as sewage tracer in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

Sediment cores from the vicinity of sewage outfalls off McMurdo Station as well as surface grab samples from different locations in the McMurdo Sound, Antarctica were analysed for coprostanol (5β-cholestan-3β-ol) and epicoprostanol (5β-cholestan-3-ol) to assess the degree of sewage addition to the Sound. Sediment samples close to the point source contain as much as 3 mg g⁻¹ dry sediment of coprostanol, whereas samples farther from the source, for example from New Harbour and Granite Harbour, contain only trace levels to 40 ng g⁻¹. Coprostanol in the sediments of latter locations most likely originates from seals rather than from sewage outfalls. It appears that sewage particles are very quickly incorporated into the sediment layers close to the discharge point in the eastern Sound. However, significant levels (930 ng g⁻¹) of fecal sterols were detected in Cape Armitage surface sediments, indicating that the sewage plume could also have reached the seawater intake station, situated in between the outfall and Cape Armitage sampling site. These results suggest the need for a sound environmental monitoring and assessment of the existing wastewater practices in the region.     

Techniques to measure the dry aeolian deposition of dust in arid and semi‐arid landscapes: a comparative study in West Niger

Seven techniques designed to measure the dry aeolian deposition of dust on a desert surface were tested during field experiments in Niger, central‐west Africa. Deposition fluxes were measured during eight periods of 3–4 days each. Experimental techniques tested were the MDCO (marble dust collector) method, the Frisbee method, the glass plate method (optical analysis of dust deposited on glass surfaces using particle imaging software), the soil surface method (deposition on a simulated desert floor) and the CAPYR (capteur pyramidal) method. Theoretical techniques tested were the inferential method and the combination method (gradient method extended with a deposition term for coarse dust particles). The results obtained by the MDCO, Frisbee, inferential and combination methods could be directly compared by converting the data to identical standard conditions (deposition on a water surface producing no resuspension). The results obtained by the other methods (glass plate, soil surface, CAPYR) were compared relatively. The study shows that the crude (unconverted) deposition fluxes of the five experimental techniques were similar, while the crude deposition fluxes calculated by the two theoretical techniques were substantially higher, of the order of four to five times as high as for the experimental techniques. Recalculation of the data to identical environmental conditions (the standard water surface) resulted in nearly identical deposition fluxes for the MDCO, Frisbee, inferential and combination techniques, although the latter two still had slightly higher values (but the differences remained small). The measurements illustrate the need to include a grain shape factor in theoretical dust deposition models. Without such a factor, theoretical models overestimate the deposition. The paper also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the techniques tested. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resetting of sediments mobilised by the LGM ice-sheet in southern Norway

Former geological field investigations in the Rondane area, east-central southern Norway, have proposed that the maximum Fennoscandian ice-sheet coverage occurred during the Late Weichselian Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 20 ka) and that subsequent glaciofluvial sediments were first deposited in the early Holocene (after 10 ka). However, recent field investigations with ages from three internally consistent quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) age series show an apparent deglaciation of northern Rondane in the period 20.0–13.8 ka. We examine here the possibility that these ages are too old because the sediment was not completely zeroed prior to deposition. Our investigations of incomplete bleaching use modern analogues, small aliquots, and single grains of quartz. First, the symmetric shape of small aliquot equivalent dose distributions suggests that the sediment was probably well bleached at deposition. This is supported by 5 modern analogue equivalent doses (D_e) of 0.6 Gy, 1.5% of the typical D_e from the deglaciation sediments. Finally, from single grain studies on three samples, we conclude that there is no evidence for poor bleaching in these samples; thus the weighted mean gives the best estimates of D_e, and these are completely consistent with both large and small aliquot estimates for these samples. These comparisons between large aliquots, modern analogues, small aliquots and single-grain analyses help to validate the OSL ages and confirm the complete resetting of these sediments prior to deposition.     

The performance of grass filter strips in controlling high‐concentration suspended sediment from overland flow under rainfall/non‐rainfall conditions

There is little information on the performance of vegetative filter strips (VFS) in filtering high‐concentration sediment from subcritical overland flow. Flume experiments on simulated grass strips were conducted using combinations of three slope gradients (3°, 9° and 15°), five 1‐m‐wide slope positions (from upslope to downslope), two flow rates (60 and 20 L min^‐1 m^‐1) and sediment concentrations of 100–300 kg m^‐3 under simulated rainfall and non‐rainfall conditions. The results showed that sediment deposition efficiency increased with VFS width as a power function. Rainfall significantly reduced sediment deposited within VFS. Higher sediment concentration corresponded to a larger sediment deposition load but reduced deposition efficiency. Flow rate had a negative effect on deposition efficiency but no effect on deposition load. Sediments were more easily deposited at the upper slope position than downslope, and the upper slope position had a higher percentage of coarse sediments. The deposited sediment had significantly greater median diameters (D₅₀) than the inflow sediment. A greater proportion of coarse sediments larger than 25 µm in diameter were deposited, and particles smaller than 1 µm and of 10–25 µm had a better deposition performance than particles of 1–10 µm. Rainfall reduced the deposited sediment D₅₀ at a slope gradient of 3° and had no significant influence on it at 9° or 15°. A higher sediment concentration led to a smaller D₅₀ of the deposited sediment. Rainfall had no significant effect on overland flow velocity. Both the deposited sediment load and D₅₀ decreased with increasing flow velocity, and flow velocity was the most sensitive factor impacting sediment deposition. The results from this study should be useful to control sediment flowing into rivers in areas with serious soil erosion. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mesocosm experiments for evaluating the biological efficacy of ozone treatment of marine ballast water

Ballast water is a major pathway for the transfer of non-indigenous species in aquatic environments. The objectives of this study were to determine the ability of ozone to reduce the numbers of a spectrum of marine organisms collected from Puget Sound, Washington in replicated mesocosm (280 l) experiments, and estimate the minimum ozone concentrations as measured by total residual oxidant (TRO) required to reduce organism densities. Ozone treatment was effective in removing bacteria, phytoplankton, and mesozooplankton with initial TRO concentrations of 2–5 mg l⁻¹ as Br₂. Persistence of TRO resulted in an extended period of toxicity and cumulative mortality. TRO decay allowed bacteria populations to multiply when TRO levels fell below 0.5–1.0 mg l⁻¹ as Br₂. Phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations were rapidly reduced by ozone treatment and did not increase in any treatments or controls because of lack of light. Overall mesozooplankton viability was rapidly reduced by 90–99% in treatment TRO levels above 1.85 mg l⁻¹ as Br₂. Our study outlines novel protocols that can be used for testing different potential ballast water treatment systems in replicated and controlled mesocosm experiments.     

Calibration of stochastic finite-fault ground motion simulations for the 1997 Umbria-Marche, Central Italy, earthquake sequence

The recent 1997 Umbria-Marche, Central Italy, earthquake sequence allowed us to model recorded ground motions using a method developed by Beresnev and Atkinson [Bull Seism Soc Am 87 (1997) 67–84; Seism Res Lett, 69 (1998) 27–32; Bull Seism Soc Am 88 (1998) 1392–1401]. The method generalizes the stochastic ground-motion simulation technique, developed for point sources, to the case of finite faults. It subdivides the fault plane into subfaults and assumes each subfault to be a point source with a ω² spectrum. Geometric spreading and regional anelastic attenuation are included in the model. The data include horizontal acceleration recordings from the SSN and ENEL databases of the 1997 Umbria-Marche events on 26 September, at 00:33 GMT, with M_w=5.7, and at 09:40 GMT, with M_w=6.0; and on 14 October at 15:23 GMT, with M_w=5.6. The strong motion simulations are performed using model parameters based on the results of previous studies, and adjusting the subfault size to calibrate the simulation model against recorded ground motions. Local site response is considered to account for observed amplification effects at specific recording sites (e.g. Nocera Umbra). A good agreement is found between the simulated response spectra and the recorded data, concluding that this method reproduces the salient ground-motion characteristics at different distances and azimuths.     

Performance of the LandSoil expert-based model to map erosion and sedimentation: application to a cultivated catchment in central Belgium

Intensive agricultural practices on sensitive soils induce high erosion rates in central Belgium. Expert-rules models quantify runoff and erosion at catchment scale, avoiding over-parameterization, and can include some direct or indirect connectivity features. The aim of this article is to test the ability of an expert-based model, LandSoil, to quantify runoff and to locate erosion and sedimentation areas in a small cultivated loamy catchment in Belgium during the years 2014, 2015 and 2016. Spatialized data are important for assessing model outputs and the erosive response. Measurements of runoff and observation of spatial erosion/deposition patterns, especially around major connectivity points, permitted an assessment of the reliability of the model results. Runoff modelling gave contrasting results (good linear adjustment at the outlet of the 83 ha sub-catchment (point 1): r² of 0.96, Nash–Sutcliffe criterion of 0.95; less good at the outlet of the 3.9 ha sub-catchment (point 2): r² of 0.28, Nash–Sutcliffe criterion of –0.47). For point 2 the poor results are explained by the very few runoff events observed, a scaling effect and the small area with a single land use. Graduated rulers demonstrate that the model is able to provide a coherent pattern of erosion/deposition. The study highlights great sensitivity to the effect of land use, land allocation, landscape design and slope gradients. Grass strips induce deposition of eroded particles when slopes are gentle (< 2%). Woodland strips decrease connectivity by being in the stream but deposit thinner sediment layers. Field boundaries have a role in the transport, but not really the quantity, of sediments. This model validation in the Belgian loess context allows us to use LandSoil in other similar environments in order to estimate the effects of landscape management scenarios. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.