汶川8.0级地震中长期预测及跟踪短期预测探讨

1999年,笔者发表了对2008年中国汶川8级地震的中长期预测结果,预测的最危险地区为汶川,上限震级为7.2级(实际震级8.0,误差0.8级),危险时段为2007—2012年、2021年以后(实际地震发生在第一危险时段内)。本文对预测方法做了概要介绍,总结了方法的特点,提出了改进意见,并探讨了跟踪短期预测方法。     

添加正则化项的黏声逆时偏移成像方法研究

在实际地球介质中传播的地震波会产生衰减和频散现象,因此其更接近于黏弹性介质,在地震处理中补偿这些黏性影响是十分必要的。基于波动方程的叠前深度偏移中进行吸收衰减补偿更准确,也更有物理意义,直接求解双程波动方程的逆时偏移(RTM)能够成像大倾角复杂构造,具有诸多优势。然而当考虑吸收衰减补偿时通常会产生不稳定现象,大部分研究都是在逆时偏移的波场延拓中进行波数域的低通滤波来解决这个问题。本文采用广义标准线性固体的黏声波动方程进行吸收衰减补偿的Q--RTM方法,通过添加正则化项的方式来稳定延拓过程。添加正则化项本质上是低通滤波,滤波窗口是指数形式,在时空域有明确的形式,可以阻止发生高频不稳定。与直接滤波相比,正则化参数可以是空变的,因此比较适合剧烈变化的区域,我们还发现震源归一化互相关成像条件更适合Q--RTM方法。      

预测10年尺度地震危险性的综合模型

本文依据信息量的定量判定方法，从分析地震地质和前兆因子与强震发生的关系出发，对各种因子所能提供的长期或１０年尺度强震危险的信息量作了估计。     

Long‐Term Groundwater Depletion in the United States

The volume of groundwater stored in the subsurface in the United States decreased by almost 1000 km³ during 1900–2008. The aquifer systems with the three largest volumes of storage depletion include the High Plains aquifer, the Mississippi Embayment section of the Gulf Coastal Plain aquifer system, and the Central Valley of California. Depletion rates accelerated during 1945–1960, averaging 13.6 km³/year during the last half of the century, and after 2000 increased again to about 24 km³/year. Depletion intensity is a new parameter, introduced here, to provide a more consistent basis for comparing storage depletion problems among various aquifers by factoring in time and areal extent of the aquifer. During 2001–2008, the Central Valley of California had the largest depletion intensity. Groundwater depletion in the United States can explain 1.4% of observed sea‐level rise during the 108‐year study period and 2.1% during 2001–2008. Groundwater depletion must be confronted on local and regional scales to help reduce demand (primarily in irrigated agriculture) and/or increase supply.     

对强震中长期预测思路的探讨

地震中长期预测是地震区划和工程地震设防的依据,并用于指导地震监测和短临地震预测工作,所以地震中长期预测是防震减灾工作中的一项重要基础研究工作。但是,目前在地震烈度区划研究中有“跟着地震跑”的问题,即已发生过强震的区域,特别是有记载以来或刚发生过大震的区域,震级越高,基本烈度越高。而实际上强震,特别是大震多发生在历史上没有大震记录、     

Identification of Pumping Influences in Long‐Term Water Level Fluctuations

Identification of the pumping influences at monitoring wells caused by spatially and temporally variable water supply pumping can be a challenging, yet an important hydrogeological task. The information that can be obtained can be critical for conceptualization of the hydrogeological conditions and indications of the zone of influence of the individual pumping wells. However, the pumping influences are often intermittent and small in magnitude with variable production rates from multiple pumping wells. While these difficulties may support an inclination to abandon the existing dataset and conduct a dedicated cross‐hole pumping test, that option can be challenging and expensive to coordinate and execute. This paper presents a method that utilizes a simple analytical modeling approach for analysis of a long‐term water level record utilizing an inverse modeling approach. The methodology allows the identification of pumping wells influencing the water level fluctuations. Thus, the analysis provides an efficient and cost‐effective alternative to designed and coordinated cross‐hole pumping tests. We apply this method on a dataset from the Los Alamos National Laboratory site. Our analysis also provides (1) an evaluation of the information content of the transient water level data; (2) indications of potential structures of the aquifer heterogeneity inhibiting or promoting pressure propagation; and (3) guidance for the development of more complicated models requiring detailed specification of the aquifer heterogeneity.     

川西地区的区域形变与中长期地震趋势

本文选取了川西地区近期形变测量结果，分析了该区区域构造运动和地震的释放与孕育方式。由此，探讨了该区的中长期地震趋势。     

目前我国中期地震预报的困惑与其思考

2001年昆仑山口西8.1级特大地震发生后,至2006年连续5年,地震界对中国大陆地震形势判定与地震活动实况相差甚大,这是为什么?本文揭示了我国中期地震预报的真实水平和其本质原因,系统地阐述了我国中期地震预报存在的问题,提出了提高中期地震预报水平的主要出路和途径。     

青海地震前驱波的短临前兆特征分析

查阅了约100个5级以上地震前青海省各台站各类仪器记录的资料,经排除"疑似前驱波"对确认真实的地震前驱波分析其短临前兆特征,进而探讨了利用前驱波进行地震短临预报的相关问题。     

地震调制比及其在华北地震中短期预报中的应用

对调制比预报地震方法进行了改进，并使用改进的地震调制比rm10对华北地区进行空间扫描，结果表明中强地震前1年左右的中短期阶段，未来震中周围的rm10中期异常区出现明显的收缩或消失，一些震例在临震前数月还再次出现rm10异常区。本方法具有较好的中短期预报效果，中还就rm10进行中短期预报的有关问题进行了讨论。     

山西地电中短期前兆异常识别方法浅析

用傅氏滑动法、动态距平法、速率法、均值法等对山西大同台、代县台、临汾台的地电异常进行了分析 ,对地电阻率异常的判定、预报方法效能进行了评价 ,对不同的台站 ,从正常的变化形态中找出了突出异常的有效方法 ,从中提取出因地壳应力变化引起的地震前兆异常 ,结果表明 ,5 .0级以上地震在Δ=15 0 km范围内有明显的中短期前兆异常     

基于地震对应概率谱的多参数中短期综合异常特征研究

由于观测资料异常变化具有多解性和不确定性,使得各种资料的前兆异常识别一直以来都是地震预报研究与实践中的重要课题。本文在王海涛等（2008）提出的地震对应概率谱和累计滑动平均概率方法基础上,应用基于地震对应概率谱的多参数滑动极值平均概率方法,对新疆地区多种地震学参数资料进行定量化的异常识别提取,突出地震前兆异常过程,探讨研究新的定量化的地震综合预报方法。     

Evaluation of Long‐Term Performance and Sustained Treatment at Enhanced Anaerobic Bioremediation Sites

This study evaluated the long‐term performance of enhanced anaerobic bioremediation (EAB) at chlorinated solvent sites to determine if sustained treatment processes were helping to prevent concentration rebound. A database of groundwater concentration versus time records was compiled for 34 sites, with at least 3 years of posttreatment monitoring data (median = 4.7 years, range = 3.0 to 11.7 years). Long‐term performance was evaluated based on order‐of‐magnitude (OoM) changes in parent compound concentrations during various monitoring periods. Results indicate that, relative to the pretreatment concentration, a median concentration reduction for all 34 sites of 1.0 OoM (90% reduction) was achieved by the end of the posttreatment monitoring period. No rebound was observed at 65% of the sites between the first year of posttreatment monitoring and the final year. During this posttreatment period, Mann‐Kendall trend analysis indicated that the concentration was stable or decreasing at 89% of the sites where a trend could be established (n = 27; 33% decreasing, 56% stable, 11% increasing). Statistical analysis indicates there is no evidence that the distribution of median concentration reductions after the first year of posttreatment monitoring was different than the distribution of median reductions 2 to 11 years later at the end of the monitoring period (p = 0.67). Similarly, statistical analysis indicates that there is no evidence that the distribution of median reductions for a larger set of sites (n = 84) with less than 3 years of posttreatment monitoring data (1.1 OoM; 92% reduction) was different than the distribution of median OoM reductions for the 34‐site dataset with longer monitoring periods (p = 0.80). This suggests that, at a typical site, a 3‐year monitoring period should be sufficient for evaluating performance. The results of this study indicate that, in the long term, after the end of active treatment, sustained treatment processes contribute to relatively modest concentration reductions but do mitigate rebound at the majority of EAB sites.     

地震活动性增强度增强图象在中期预报中的应用

根据朱岳清等提出的地震活动性增强度的计算方法及增强图象的编制方法,应用鄂西北及邻区1983年9月以来的地震目录编制了该区1988、1989年度地震活动性增强图,得出了该区的明显增强区,经检验认为其预报效果较好。     

大姚6.2级地震前云南地区水氡中短期异常及其地震预测意义

对2003年7月21日大姚6.2级地震前云南地区水氡观测资料进行了系统的处理,在此基础上对大姚地震前云南地区水氡中短临异常分布范围、数量及其与发震时间关系等特征进行了分析,这对未来强震水氡异常的识别和分析有一定的实用价值,特别是对长时间平静后的强震中短期预报有一定的实际意义。     

在热红外短临地震预测研究中NCEP资料的引用

利用地震短临阶段孕震区内普遍出现的大气-地面增温异常来进行短临地震预测,是近年来我国地震科技工作者进行短临地震预测研究的一个新方向.对地面增温异常的监测多数是通过分析气象卫星云图的热红外辐射异常来实现的.而气象卫星星载辐射计测到的是各种下垫面(包括海面、陆面和云顶)的红外波段辐射特征和强度.所以,当孕震区上空有较厚的云层时,云图资料就无法反应该地区地面增温现象,自然也就无法用于地震预测.根据我们对我国东部1988～1999年期间里氏5.0级以上地震的GMS卫星云图分析,有多于50%的GMS云图资料因为孕震区有云而无法用于我们的研究.因此,尽管15年来的研究和试报实践证明,用卫星红外异常作地震短临预测是很有发展前途的新武器,但单用卫星红外云图还是具有一定局限性的.为了弥补气象卫星资料云图上述的不足,本研究中心,自2003年5月开始引入了NCEP全球再分析资料.该资料多用于气候分析,而将它用于地震短临预测的研究,在国内外尚属首次.     

Assessment of global wave models on regular and unstructured grids using the Unresolved Obstacles Source Term

Ocean Dynamics - The Unresolved Obstacles Source Term (UOST) is a general methodology for parameterizing the dissipative effects of subscale islands, cliffs, and other unresolved features in ocean...     

特定震源台站校正定位方法及在安徽霍山地区的应用

本文详细介绍一种地震定位方法--特定震源台站校正定位法(Source-Specific Station Term, SSST),并应用该方法对安徽大别山的霍山地区1976~2008年发生的地震进行重新定位研究.重新定位后,原震源位置的精度得以大大提高、空间上分布也更加紧凑.使用bootstrap法对定位偏差进行估计,得到E-W、N-S、U-D三个方向的定位误差分别为0.4 km、0.6 km、0.9 km;定位均方根残差得以很大程度上减小,其均值由定位前的1.34 s下降到定位后的0.11 s.文中比较了特定震源台站校正方法与双差方法,结果表明,相对于双差方法,特定震源台站校正法定位条件容易满足,定位后缺失地震较少且还具有一定的绝对定位作用.应用特定震源台站校正方法的结果对霍山区域的地震活动性进行分析,发现重定位后显示出3条明显的密集条带,由此划分出3个密集区并分析其时空分布特征,结果显示这3个密集区在深度上分布都具有较浅的特征,但随时间分布却有所差异.条件允许时,将来可以结合波形互相关技术进一步提高定位精度.     

菏泽地震前流体中短期异常分析

结合在华北强震平静背景下发生的1983年11月7日菏泽5.9级地震数据,对菏泽的流体资料进行综合分析研究,总结出地下流体在本次地震中的映震能力,探索地下流体的地震异常规律,为将来应用地下流体观测进行地震预报提供可靠的依据。