Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

Seismic Hazard Mapping and Microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya through GIS Integration of Site Effects and Strong Ground Motion Attributes

The seismic ground motion hazard is mapped in the Sikkim Himalaya with local and regional site conditions incorporated through geographic information system. A strong motion network in Sikkim comprising of 9 digital accelerographs recorded more than 100 events during 1998–2002, of which 41 events are selected with signal-to-noise ratio 3 for the estimation of site response (SR), peak ground acceleration (PGA) and predominant frequency (PF) at all stations. With these and inputs from IRS-1C LISS III digital data, topo-sheets, geographical boundary of the State of Sikkim, surface geological maps, soil taxonomy map in 1:50,000 scale and seismic refraction profiles, the seismological and geological thematic maps, namely, SR, PGA, PF, lithology, soil class, %slope, drainage, and landslide layers are generated. The geological themes are united to form the basic site condition coverage of the region. The seismological themes are assigned normalized weights and feature ranks following a pair-wise comparison hierarchical approach and later integrated to evolve the seismic hazard map. When geological and seismological layers are integrated together through GIS, microzonation map is prepared. The overall site response, PGA and predominant frequency show an increasing trend in the NW–SE direction peaking at Singtam in the lesser Himalaya. As Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) is approached, the attribute value increases further. A quasi-probabilistic seismic hazard index has been proposed based on site response, peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency. Six seismic hazard zones are marked with percent probability <22%, 22–37%, 37–52%, 52–67%, 67–82%, >82% at 3 Hz and <20%, 20–34%, 34–48%, 48–61%, 61–75%, >75% at 9 Hz. In the microzonation vector layer of integrated seismological and geological themes also six major zones are mapped, with percent probability <15%, 15–31%, 31–47%, 47–63%, 63–78%, >78% at low frequency end. The maximum risk is attached to the probability greater than 78% in the Singtam and its adjoining area. These maps are generally better spatial representation of seismic hazard including site-specific analysis.     

A mobile multi-depth borehole sensor set-up to study the surface-to-base seismic transfer functions

The best method to evaluate the seismic site response is by means of borehole vertical arrays that use earthquake records from different depths. In this paper we introduce the implementation of a single borehole sensor system (synchronized to a sensor on the surface) that is fixed at variable depths within a single well. This system is used for recording small amplitude earthquake signals at variable stiffness conditions in depth to compute empirical borehole transfer functions. The computed average empirical borehole transfer functions allow the estimation of an S-wave velocity model that is constrained using the frequency peak observed in the H/V ratio curve.Pairs of surface and borehole earthquake records were obtained with the borehole sensor placed at − 10, −20, −50, and − 100 m depth in a test site in Managua, Nicaragua. The average velocity of the final model down to − 100 m appeared to be in good agreement with the average velocity computed via cross-correlation using the surface and borehole signals. Likewise, an inverted MASW profile and H/V ratio at the same site agree with the S-wave velocity model obtained.     

A comparative study on linear and nonlinear site response analysis

Site response analysis is usually the first step of any seismic soil-structure study. Geotechnical earthquake engineers and engineering geologist have been trying to find both practical and most appropriate solution techniques for ground response analysis under earthquake loadings. The paper attempts to give a critical overview of the field of site response analysis. In this paper, the influences of nonlinearity on the site response analysis summarized and were evaluated with a numerical example. Site response of a two layered soil deposit with the assumption of linear and rigid base bedrock (or viscoelastic half-space) was analyzed by using linear and nonlinear approaches. The amplification spectrum of the soil column is computed between the top and the bottom of this soil deposit. Nonlinear analysis was compared with the linear method of analysis. Steps involved in ground response analyses to develop site-specific response spectra at a soil site are briefly summarized. Some of the well-known site response analysis methods are summarized and similarities and differences between linear and nonlinear methods are compared by a numerical example.     

Local site effects in Latur, India: an empirical study based on the aftershocks of the Killari earthquake of September 29, 1993

The site amplification is estimated at five seismic stations of the Latur region using the horizontal to vertical spectral ratios of 33 aftershocks of the main Killari earthquake of September 29, 1993 (UTC). Spectral amplifications, ranging from a factor of 2–6 are found to vary with frequency at different places. Significant amplification is found at four sites within the Latur region, at Basavakalyan, Kasgi, Killari, and Mudgad Eakoji villages. Our results show a positive correlation between the site amplification and the damage pattern in area. The pattern and the nature of the site amplification estimated in the present study corroborates also with the analytical models and the borehole data indicating alternating layers of unconsolidated sediments and basaltic rocks.     

A check-up on seismic hazard assessment: Tirana case study

Based on the data of consequences of the 9 January 1988 earthquake that hit Tirana city, a comparative study is made of these consequences with the seismic hazard assessment by microzoning studies finished on the eve of this earthquake. It is shown that the methodologies used to assess the seismic hazard by engineering geology, geophysical, instrumental and analytical methods, follows the same trends as the distribution of the consequences of this earthquake.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Sofia, 1988.     

A Moore's cellular automaton model to get probabilistic seismic hazard maps for different magnitude releases: A case study for Greece

Cellular automata are simple mathematical idealizations of natural systems and they supply useful models for many investigations in natural science. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and slider block models used in seismology. In the present paper, they have been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the seismic events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. A stochastic cellular automaton is constructed starting with these patterns, in order to simulate their spatio-temporal evolution, by supposing a Moore's neighborhood interaction between the cells. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the Greece catalogue from 1900 to 1999. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for energies corresponding to m = 4 and m = 5 are close to the real seismicity after the data in that area, and they correspond to a background seismicity in the whole area. This background seismicity seems to cover the whole area in periods of around 25–50 years. The optimum cell size is in agreement with other studies; for m > 6 the optimum area increases according to the threshold of clear spatial resolution, and the active cells are not so clustered. The results are coherent with other hazard studies in the zone and with the seismicity recorded after the data set, as well as provide an interaction model which points out the large scale nature of the earthquake occurrence.     

Assessment of the stability of H/V spectral ratios from ambient noise and comparison with earthquake data in the Cologne area (Germany)

Situated in an active tectonic region the highly industrialised Cologne area (Germany) suffers from moderate-sized earthquakes. Our contribution to the mitigation of earthquake risk includes a microzonation study using ambient seismic noise and earthquake recordings from two field campaigns. An analysis of these data using the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) as well as the classical spectral ratio (CSR) technique led to the following observations and conclusions: (1) The spatial variation in the thickness of the sedimentary cover is reliably retrieved using the fundamental resonance frequency estimated from the peak in the (H/V) ratio of ambient noise. (2) This fundamental resonance frequency is stable in time, but the amplitude of the peak (the amplification factor) is not. (3) The relative amplification variation of the H/V ratio in the area should therefore be checked systematically with repeated measurements before drawing conclusions about its significance. (4) The analysis of the H/V ratio of ambient noise provides the lower frequency bound, above which amplification may occur. (5) The shapes of the spectral ratios obtained by the different methods are generally in good agreement. However, the analysis of earthquake data shows that significant amplification of ground motion may also occur at frequencies higher than the fundamental one even when thick sediments are present.     

Dynamic soil-structure interaction: A three-dimensional numerical approach and its application to the Lotung case study

This paper presents a three-dimensional non-linear finite element (FE) approach to analyse the dynamic soil-structure interaction (SSI) phenomena observed at the Lotung Large-Scale Seismic Test (LSST) site. The numerical study is carried out in the time domain by a commercial FE code, taking into account the non-linear behaviour of soil and the multi-directional nature of real seismic events. The soil response is simulated by an isotropic hardening elasto-plastic hysteretic model (HSsmall) implemented in the material model library of the code. This model allows to describe the non-linear cyclic response ranging from small to large strain amplitudes and to account for the variation of the initial stiffness with depth.In the paper, the FE numerical approach is first validated through a series of parametric analyses simulating simplified cases (i.e. linear visco-elastic structures founded on a homogeneous linear visco-elastic soil deposit) for which analytical solutions exist. Then, it is adopted to back-analyse the behaviour of the 1/4-scale nuclear power plant containment structure constructed at the Lotung LSST site which was shook by several earthquakes of different intensities and frequency contents. The FE results are thus compared to the recorded in-situ free-field and structural motions, highlighting the satisfactory performance of the numerical model in replicating the observed response. The overall outcome of this research proves that nowadays complex dynamic SSI phenomena can be tackled by direct approach, overpassing the strong simplifications of the well-established substructure approaches.     

The Olmsted fault zone, southernmost Illinois: A key to understanding seismic hazard in the northern new Madrid seismic zone

Geological deformation in the northern New Madrid seismic zone, near Olmsted, Illinois (USA), is analyzed using integrated compressional-wave (P) and horizontally polarized-wave (SH) seismic reflection and regional and dedicated borehole information. Seismic hazards are of special concern because of strategic facilities (e.g., lock and dam sites and chemical plants on the Ohio River near its confluence with the Mississippi River) and because of alluvial soils subject to high amplification of earthquake shock. We use an integrated approach starting with lower resolution, but deeper penetration, P-wave reflection profiles to identify displacement of Paleozoic bedrock. Higher resolution, but shallower penetration, SH-wave images show deformation that has propagated upward from bedrock faults into Pleistocene loess. We have mapped an intricate zone more than 8 km wide of high-angle faults in Mississippi embayment sediments localized over Paleozoic bedrock faults that trend north to northeast, parallel to the Ohio River. These faults align with the pattern of epicenters in the New Madrid seismic zone. Normal and reverse offsets along with positive flower structures imply a component of strike-slip; the current stress regime favors right-lateral slip on northeast-trending faults. The largest fault, the Olmsted fault, underwent principal displacement near the end of the Cretaceous Period 65 to 70 million years ago. Strata of this age (dated via fossil pollen) thicken greatly on the downthrown side of the Olmsted fault into a locally subsiding basin. Small offsets of Tertiary and Quaternary strata are evident on high-resolution SH-wave seismic profiles. Our results imply recent reactivation and possible future seismic activity in a critical area of the New Madrid seismic zone. This integrated approach provides a strategy for evaluating shallow seismic hazard-related targets for engineering concerns.     

水土流失地质灾害危险性评估探讨——以广东省德庆县为例

文章以广东省德庆县水土流失为例,结合多年来在该地区进行水土方面的研究成果,对地质灾害危险性评估工作中出现的水土流失现状作了论述、预测评估进行探讨,并提出防治措施。水土流失产生的主导因素是燕山期花岗岩分布的丘陵区岩体结构遭到破坏;从属因素是持续强烈的降雨,从而加剧了水土流失;激发因素是人类工程活动对地质环境的破坏。经评估,该区水土流失正处于青年期,潜在不稳定性。     

Seismically induced rock slope failures resulting from topographic amplification of strong ground motions: The case of Pacoima Canyon, California

The 1994 Northridge earthquake (M_w = 6.7) triggered extensive rock slope failures in Pacoima Canyon, immediately north of Los Angeles, California. Pacoima Canyon is a narrow and steep canyon incised in gneissic and granitic rocks. Peak accelerations of nearly 1.6 g were recorded at a ridge that forms the left abutment of Pacoima Dam; peak accelerations at the bottom of the canyon were less than 0.5 g, suggesting the occurrence of topographic amplification. Topographic effects have been previously suggested to explain similarly high ground motions at the site during the 1971 (M_w = 6.7) San Fernando earthquake. Furthermore, high landslide concentrations observed in the area have been attributed to unusually strong ground motions rather than higher susceptibility to sliding compared with nearby zones. We conducted field investigations and slope stability back-analyses to confirm the impact of topographic amplification on the triggering of landslides during the 1994 earthquake. Our results suggest that the observed extensive rock sliding and falling would have not been possible under unamplified seismic conditions, which would have generated a significantly lower number of areas affected by landslides. In contrast, modelling slope stability using amplified ground shaking predicts slope failure distributions matching what occurred in 1994. This observation confirms a significant role for topographic amplification on the triggering of landslides at the site, and emphasises the need to select carefully the inputs for seismic slope stability analyses.     

Evaluation of local amplification in the seismic microzonation: comparison between punctual multidisciplinary integrated studies and macroseismic methods in Fivizzano's area (Toscana, Italy)

In the seismic microzonation the evaluation of the local amplification issue may be solved using different methodological approaches. Taking the hint from the studies made within VEL project framework, sponsored by Tuscany Region on Fivizzano's area we are herewith comparing the results of geotechnical and geophysical integrated multidisciplinary studies with the existing data available from previous studies, mainly using a macroseismic approach, on the same area. This qualitative method does not seem to be able to make any forecasting on the scale whereas generally microzoning is performed. On the contrary, the knowledge of the geological-technical model of the investigated area, obtained by punctual multidisciplinary integrated studies, allows a direct collection of the data to insert in input step of numerical modelling, aimed to local effects evaluation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

隐伏断层在强震砂土液化中的作用——以2008年汶川Mw 7.9地震为例

2008年汶川Mw7.9地震的强地面震动在龙门山前地区造成大量的砂土液化、喷砂冒水等地震灾害现象。震后野外调查发现,砂土液化点主要分布于地下水位只有几米深的山前河流的低阶地处,以大面积砾性土液化为特征,约58%的液化点位于距北川断层20~35km的范围内。对喷水高度及喷水过程进行了详细记录,喷水高度与峰值加速度并没有明显的相关性,喷水高度异常点(2m)集中于山前断裂系统近地表投影处。汶川地震中喷水高度异常、砾性土液化的位置与山前断裂系统的吻合性说明,沉积盆地内的地质构造可能在砂土液化强度和与震动相关的地震灾害方面起到促进作用,所以在类似的地质和水文环境中,除主震的断层错动外,应考虑地质构造在地震危险性评估和建筑物抗震设计中的重要作用。     

A seismic landslide hazard analysis with topographic effect,a case study in the 99 Peaks region,Central Taiwan

It has been known that ground motion amplitude will be amplified at mountaintops; however, such topographic effects are not included in conventional landslide hazard models. In this study, a modified procedure that considers the topographic effects is proposed to analyze the seismic landslide hazard. The topographic effect is estimated by back analysis. First, a 3D dynamic numerical model with irregular topography is constructed. The theoretical topographic amplification factors are derived from the dynamic numerical model. The ground motion record is regarded as the reference motion in the plane area. By combining the topographic amplification factors with the reference motions, the amplified acceleration time history and amplified seismic intensity parameters are obtained. Newmark’s displacement model is chosen to perform the seismic landslide hazard analysis. By combining the regression equation and the seismic parameter of peak ground acceleration and Arias intensity, the Newmark’s displacement distribution is generated. Subsequently, the calculated Newmark’s displacement maps are transformed to the hazard maps. The landslide hazard maps of the 99 Peaks region, Central Taiwan are evaluated. The actual landslide inventory maps triggered by the 21 September 1999, Chi-Chi earthquake are compared with the calculated hazard maps. Relative to the conventional procedure, the results show that the proposed procedures, which include the topographic effect can obtain a better result for seismic landslide hazard analysis. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

污染场地健康风险评价的实例研究

以常州市A厂有机污染调查为依据,采用篇中讨论的污染场地健康风险评价方法综合评价由土壤、空气、地下水污染带来的人群健康风险。综合分析表明,场地目标污染物为4种苯系物,可能对人体产生肝肾病变、鼻上皮组织恶化和运动协调能力降低等非致癌效应;污染物暴露途径主要有3条,分别暴露于厂区人群和饮用厂区下游民井井水的居民。评价结果显示,厂区人群同时遭受皮肤接触污染土壤和呼吸污染空气带来的非致癌危害。4种污染物的多途径同种污染物累计非致癌危害指数分别为甲苯,2·82×10-2;乙苯,4·94×10-2;间对二甲苯,1·21×10-7;异丙苯,1·05×10-7。两途径多污染物非致癌总危害指数分别为4·26×10-5和7·76×10-2,非致癌综合危害指数为7·76×10-2;厂区下游居民饮用遭受污染的地下水,其多污染物非致癌总危害指数为1·55×10-5。各危害指数均小于1,非致癌健康风险较小。     

Integration of P- and SH-wave high-resolution seismic reflection and micro-gravity techniques to improve interpretation of shallow subsurface structure: New Madrid seismic zone

Shallow high-resolution seismic reflection surveys have traditionally been restricted to either compressional (P) or horizontally polarized shear (SH) waves in order to produce 2-D images of subsurface structure. The northernmost Mississippi embayment and coincident New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) provide an ideal laboratory to study the experimental use of integrating P- and SH-wave seismic profiles, integrated, where practicable, with micro-gravity data. In this area, the relation between “deeper” deformation of Paleozoic bedrock associated with the formation of the Reelfoot rift and NMSZ seismicity and “shallower” deformation of overlying sediments has remained elusive, but could be revealed using integrated P- and SH-wave reflection. Surface expressions of deformation are almost non-existent in this region, which makes seismic reflection surveying the only means of detecting structures that are possibly pertinent to seismic hazard assessment. Since P- and SH-waves respond differently to the rock and fluid properties and travel at dissimilar speeds, the resulting seismic profiles provide complementary views of the subsurface based on different levels of resolution and imaging capability. P-wave profiles acquired in southwestern Illinois and western Kentucky (USA) detect faulting of deep, Paleozoic bedrock and Cretaceous reflectors while coincident SH-wave surveys show that this deformation propagates higher into overlying Tertiary and Quaternary strata. Forward modeling of micro-gravity data acquired along one of the seismic profiles further supports an interpretation of faulting of bedrock and Cretaceous strata. The integration of the two seismic and the micro-gravity methods therefore increases the scope for investigating the relation between the older and younger deformation in an area of critical seismic hazard.     

Spatio-temporal variation in radon concentration in groundwater with respect to rock types: A case study from Chitradurga district,Karnataka

An attempt was made in the present study to delineate how the radon concentrations vary with respect to different geological formations and to evaluate annual effective dose exposure due to ingestion of radon. A total of 60 groundwater samples were collected from layered sequential aquifers in Chitradurga district having major rock types such as Bababudan Group, Charnockite, Chitradurga Group, Closepet granite, migmatites and granodiorite — tonalitic gneisses and Sargur Schist complex during pre-monsoon and post-season of the year 2011. Radon measurement was made using Durridge RAD-7 radon-in-air monitor, connected to RAD H₂O accessory with closed loop aeration concept. In the present study, the radon activity ranged from 0 to 186.6 Bq/L and 0 to 150.6 Bq/L during pre- and post-monsoon seasons of the year 2011, with 56.67 % (17 samples) of samples during both the seasons exceeding the EPA’s MCL value of 11.1 Bq/L. The annual mean radon activity in the groundwater was higher in the area having Chitradurga rock group formations (78.1 Bq/L) followed by Sargur-Satyamangalam schist complex group (56.8 bq/L), migmatites and granodiorite — tonalitic Gneisses group (56.3 Bq/L), Closepet granite (42.7 Bq/L), Charnonkite (29.1 Bq/L) and Bababudan Group (22.2 Bq/L). It is inferred that radon concentration found to depend on the tectonic structure, geology of the area and on the presence of uranium minerals in these rocks. The annual effective dose resulting from radon in groundwater in the Chitradurga district were significantly lower than UNSCEAR and WHO recommended limit of 1 mSv/y.