宁夏地区地壳新速度模型在地震定位中的应用

本文利用有限差分法正演和遗传算法反演得到宁夏地区地壳新速度模型, 再将该模型配置到MSDP软件的HYP2000定位方法中。 选用宁夏地区2008年以来地震和爆破资料, 从震中位置、 深度及残差3个方面对新模型和原模型进行定位对比分析。 结果表明: 定位网内地震时, 新模型得到的震中比原模型更接近断层, 震群的深度也与断层分布更为吻合; 运用新模型定位的爆破深度平均为2.8 km, 绝大多数不超过5 km, 落实爆破位置与定位结果差平均为水平2.4 km、 垂直2.6 km, 更符合大多为地表爆破的实际情况。 进一步分析新模型定位的地震深度与宁夏地区地壳速度结构, 发现地震发生在高速-低速转换地区。     

Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area

Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring should be strengthened.     

Recognition of earthquake-prone areas: Methodology and analysis of the results

We present the results of verifying the areas that were detected as prone to strong earthquakes by the pattern recognition algorithms in different regions of the world with different levels of seismicity and, therefore, different threshold magnitudes demarcating the strong earthquakes. The analysis is based on the data presented in the catalog of the U.S. National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) as of August 1, 2012. In each of the regions considered, we examined the locations of the epicenters of the strong earthquakes that occurred in the region after the publication of the corresponding result. There were 91 such earthquakes in total. The epicenters of 79 of these events (87%) fall in the recognized earthquake-prone areas, including 27 epicenters located in the areas where no strong earthquakes had ever been documented up to the time of publication of the result. Our analysis suggests that the results of the recognition of areas prone to strong earthquakes are reliable and that it is reasonable to use these results in the applications associated with the assessment of seismic risks. The comparison of the recognition for California with the analysis of seismicity of this region by the Discrete Perfect Sets (DPS) algorithm demonstrates the agreement between the results obtained by these two different methods.     

云南中东部的地震活动与表面断裂

一、绪言远在地震学成为一门精确的科学以前,地质学家就已注意到地震活动和地质构造间的关系了,穆什凯托夫在研究维尔年地震时,就曾注意到大构造断裂与地震活动的关系,并试图据以推测各地区的地震危险性.古宾把地震和一定的地质构造联系起来,企图把这种“地震成因”的构造断裂作为强烈地震发生地点的探查标志.     

河北省张北6.2级地震前的重力异常

绘制了重力测值的时变曲线和空间等值线,从动态的角度分析了1998年1月张北6．2级地震前的流动重力异常的演化及特征。结果显示,地震前的重力场呈下降变化,震中位于异常中心附近的重力变化高梯度区。     

长江三峡地区地震的远距离独立烈度异常区

一、前言长江三峡蕴藏着极其丰富的水利资源,为我国当前最大的水利电力枢纽工程所在地。这里地震工作开展较早,本世纪二十年代以来,中外地学界曾在此进行了多方面考察。新中国成立后,在着手规划开发长江水利资源的初期,己布设了三峡地震台网,同时开展了地震地质调查和地形变观测工作。笔者在峡区周围曾参加过多次地震考察,发现黄陵背斜东西两侧地震时,在远离震中的钟祥和荆门地区出现等震线单独封闭的独立烈度异常区。在等震线分布     

张北6.2级地震及大同5.6级地震前的流动重力异常

绘制了重力的时序变化曲线和空间等值线,从动态的角度分析了1998年张北6.2级地震和1999年大同5.6级地震前后的流动重力异常的演化及特征。结果显示,地震的孕育过程与重力场变化有关,地震发生在重力下降的异常时段,震中位于重力变化高梯度区。     

瀑布沟水库区域地震的重新定位

利用双差定位方法对瀑布沟水库区域内2006-10-13~2013-07-31之间发生的3 784个地震进行了重新定位,获得了3 601个地震的重新定位结果,到时残差平均为0.12 s,E-W、N-S和U-D三个方向上平均定位误差分别为0.15 km、0.17 km和1.10 km。重新定位结果显示,在研究区域内的西南方向和水库流域,地震分布密集,这个区域处于鲜水河断裂中南段、安宁河断裂北段和大凉山断裂北段的位置,此区域内地震震源深度主要分布在5~30km间,表明该区域的地震主要是构造活动引起的,而水库库区内地震震源深度主要分布在0~5 km区间,分布比较集中,该地区的地震为水库诱发和人工爆破引起的地震。     

TRANSVERSE STRUCTURES FEATURES OF DIFFERENT DEPTHS DERIVED FROM BOUGUER GRAVITY ANOMALIES IN THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF TAN-LU FAULT ZONE

To research the faults distribution and deep structures in the southern segment of Tan-Lu fault zone(TLFZ) and its adjacent area, this paper collects the Bouguer gravity data and makes separation by the multi-scale wavelet analysis method to analyze the crustal transverse structure of different depths. Meanwhile Moho interface is inversed by Parker variable density model. Research indicates that the southern segment of TLFZ behaves as a NNE-directed large-scale regional field gravity gradient zone, which separates the west North China-Dabie orogen block and the east Yangtze block, cutting the whole crust and lithosphere mantle. There are quite differences of density structures and tectonic features between both sides of this gradient belt. The sedimentary and upper crustal density structure is complex. The two east branches of TLFZ behave as linear gravity anomalous belt throughout the region, whereas the two west branches of TLFZ continue to extend after truncating the EW-trending gravity anomaly body. The lower crustal density structure is relatively simple. TLFZ behaves as a broad and gentle low abnormal belt, which reflects the Cretaceous-Paleogene extension environment caused graben structure. The two west branches of TLFZ, running through Hefei city, extend southward along the west margin of Feidong depression and pinch out in Shucheng area due to the high density trap occlusions in the south of Shucheng. The Feizhong Fault, Liu'an-Hefei Fault, and Feixi-Hanbaidu Fault intersect the two west branch faults of TLFZ without extending to the east. Recent epicenters are mainly located in conversion zones between the high-density and the low-density anomaly, especially in TLFZ and the junction of the faults, where earthquakes frequently occurred in the upper and middle crust. As strong earthquakes rarely occur in the southern segment of TLFZ, considering its deep feature of abrupt change of the Moho and intersections with many EW-trending faults, the hazard of strong earthquake cannot be ignored.     

龙门山断裂带及其周边地区重力场 和岩石层力学特性研究

继2008年汶川M_S8.0地震之后, 2013年4月20日又发生了芦山M_S7.0地震, 两次地震的发震构造同属龙门山断裂带. 根据最新的重力和地形资料, 采用岩石层弹性板模型, 计算了龙门山断裂带及其周边地区的二维岩石层有效弹性厚度分布, 并从岩石层的力学特征分析了穿过两次地震震中位置的重力剖面特征; 结合以往在该地区的研究成果, 分析了岩石层的力学变形问题. 结果表明, 以龙门山为界, 四川盆地所在的扬子板块弹性厚度为33(±4) km, 龙门山西北的松潘—甘孜地块的弹性厚度为13(±4) km, 两侧岩石层存在明显的力学强度差异. 包括两次地震震中范围的龙门山断裂带南部区域的有效弹性厚度值小于北部地区, 说明该区域的岩石层更容易发生变形, 可以解释在构造上具备强震发生的岩石层动力学条件.      

A new approach to recognition of the strong earthquake-prone areas in the Caucasus

Clustering the epicenters of Caucasian earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 3.0 is carried out, and the epicentral zones of the probable earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 areas where epicenters of earthquakes with M ≤ 5.0 may occur are recognized by the Fuzzy Clustering and Zoning (FCAZ) algorithmic system developed by the authors at the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. These zones correspond well to the locations of the epicenters of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. The zones recognized in this study are compared with the zones previously recognized by A.D. Gvishiani et al. in 1988 by the Earthquake-Prone Areas Recognition (EPA) technique. The comparison shows that the zones identified by FCAZ are mainly located inside the EPA-zones. The FCAZ-zones are also compared with the zones previously recognized using gravimetric and geological data. The results obtained by different methods closely agree. Contrary to EPA technique FCAZ algorithmic system relies on the DPS algorithm of objective classification that requires only the information about epicenters of the earthquakes in the region under study.     

Main Factors Affecting the Distribution of the Macroscopic Destruction Field of Earthquake

It is proposed that some possible macroseismic epicenters can be determined quickly from the relationship that the microseismic epicenters located by instruments bear with faults.Based on these so-called macroseismic epicenters,we can make fast seismic hazard estimation after a shock by use of the empirical distribution model of seismic intensity.In comparison with the method that uses the microseismic epicenters directly,this approach can increase the preccision of fast seismic hazard estimation.Statistical analysis of 133 main earthquakes in China was made.The result shows that the deviation distance between the microseismic epicenter and macroseismic epicenter falls within the range of 35km for 88% earthquakes of the total and within the range of 35to 75km for the remaining ones.Then,we can take the area that has the microseismic epicenter as its center and is 35km in radius as the area for emphatic analysis,and take the area within 75km around the microseismic epicenter as the area for general analysis.The relation between the 66 earthquake cases on the N-S Seismic Belt in China and the spatial distribution characteristics of faults and the results of focal mechanism solution were analyzed in detail.We know from the analysis that the error of instrumental epicenter determination is not the only factor that gives effects to the deviation of the macroseismic epicenter.In addiditon to it,the fault size,fault distribution,fault activity,fault intersection types,earthquake magnitude,etc,are also main affecting factors.By sorting out ,processing and analyzing these affecting factors,the principle and procedures for quickly determining the possible position of the macroseismic epicenter were set up.Taking these as a basis and establishing a nationwide database of faults that contains relevant factors,it is possible to apply this method in practical fast estimation of seismic hazard.     

北部湾6．1、6．2级地震的烈度分布与发震构造

调查了北部湾６．１、６．２级地震的烈度分布，陆地最高达六度，六度区的长轴呈ＮＷ向。研究了海底地形、重力资料、断裂产状、震中空间分布以及震源机制解，结果表明，该地震序列是在南北向的区域应力场作用下产生的共轭剪切错动，ＮＷ向的涠洲－斜阳断裂为主要发震构造，一系列较小的余震则是ＮＥ向断裂活动引发的。     

两次乌恰Ms5.1地震前后南天山重力场动态变化特征

利用南天山流动重力网2009～2011年的测量资料,研究了乌恰两次Ms5.1地震前后重力场的时空动态演化特征.研究表明,在两次乌恰Ms5.1地震前后,重力场变化表现出“活跃—平静—活跃”特征,两次地震发生在重力场异常上升和下降变化过程中,且震中位置处于重力变化高梯度带且靠近“0”等值线附近.     

地震前后岩石圈磁场变化特征分析

本文以九江—瑞昌M_s5.7级地震和汶川M_s8.0级地震为研究对象,根据两个震区地震后观测所得地磁场三分量数据和“2005.0中国地磁图”项目所积累的地磁场三分量数据,建立了两个震区的岩石圈磁场模型.通过对比分析两个震区岩石圈磁场总强度、磁偏角、磁倾角三个独立分量地震前后的时空变化特征,初步探讨地震与岩石圈磁场变化关系,寻找有效震磁变化信息.结果表明：（1）两次震中均位于岩石圈磁场的磁偏角和磁倾角零值线附近;（2）震后震中百公里范围内岩石圈磁场分量均出现了不同程度的异常变化;（3）震中附近岩石圈磁场出现了明显的与地震相关的变化,该变化在两个震区表现出相近的规律性.     

2002年8月20日长白山天池火山小震震群研究

2002年7～9月，采用15台宽频带流动地震仪在长白山天池火山区进行了近3个月的地震观测，记录到大量发生在天池火山附近的地震和多次小震群。对2002年8月20日的小震群进行了分析，结果表明这些地震发生在长白山天池内的西南部，震源深度距离天池水面一般小于4km深，震群的震中位置呈北西向线性分布。地震记录的频谱分析表明，该震群为典型的火山构造类型地震。在观测中发现HSZ和DZD台的地震记录低频成份丰富，这可能与台站附近的局部介质变化或低速的断层带有关。我们认为震群可能是由火山深部活动诱发的局部断裂活动所引起。     

基于GIS研究南黄海活动断层与地震的关系

基于GIS缓冲区分析和叠加分析的空间分析方法,定量研究南黄海活动断层与地震的关系.通过对震中与10 km和20 km断层缓冲区的叠加分析得出断层缓冲区内地震的数量,从中看出:走向NE～NEE向断裂是控制地震发生的主要活动断裂;通过对断层和震中缓冲区的叠加分析得出对地震发生有影响的断层的数量.     

中国大陆重力场动态变化研究

利用国家重大科学工程"中国地壳运动观测网络"1998-2008年间绝对重力和相对重力的观测资料,初步获得了中国大陆起算基准统一的重力场及其动态变化.重力场变化既具有时空分布的不均匀性和重力变化分区现象,同时又具有与活动断裂构造密切相关和与地震孕育发展有着内在联系.中国大陆6.8级以上大震主要发生在重力场变化分布差异较为剧烈的地区(重力变化≥90×10^-8m·s^-2)和重力变化发生转折的时段.     

Deep-seated faults and lineaments, and the location of earthquake epicenters in the Russian northeast on land

This paper summarizes the available geological and geophysical material for faults as regards their role in the seismic process. The entirety of the geological and geophysical evidence is used to reveal hidden faults, which are important in influencing the spatial distribution of earthquakes, and to produce a map of the major earthquake-generating faults and lineaments in the Russian northeast. As well as the occurrence of earthquakes at known faults that have surface expression, we find that seismicity tends to occur at the hidden faults and lineaments we have identified, as well as at intersections of faults. We made a quantitative assessment of the relationship of seismicity to tectonic fragmentation of the crust, correlating the density and discordance measure for faults to indicators of seismic activity (rate and energy release of earthquakes per unit area) for the southeast flank of the Okhotsk-Lena seismic region. The results obtained in this study revealed some features in the spatial distribution of earthquakes occurring on land in the Okhotsk-Lena seismic region: the maximum level of seismic activity occurs in areas with moderate values of the discordance measure for faults (12 < ‖D‖ ≤ 18) as identified from gravity data and in zones of increased horizontal gradients of the lines of equal discordance. At these locations, the greatest probability of earthquake occurrence for events of energy class K ≥ 12 corresponds to moderate values of the density of faults visible at the surface (0.12 < τ ≤ 0.16 km^?1).     

2019年甘肃张掖5.0级、夏河5.7级地震前地磁低点位移时空分布特征

2019年甘肃张掖5.0级、夏河5.7级地震前中国大陆均有明显的“地磁低点位移”现象出现,2次地震震中均位于低点位移线出现明显转折的区域。通过对2次低点位移异常日中国大陆地磁台站低点时间进行梯度法分析,研究了2次中强地震震中位置与低点时间高梯度带分布间的关系。研究结果表明：①在2次低点位移异常日都同步出现了地磁垂直分量低点时间高梯度带分布;②2次中强地震震中位置均位于低点位移线出现明显转折处和低点时间高梯度带1.0 h/（°）等值线附近;③利用低点时间梯度法对低点位移异常进行分析有利于改进原有异常识别方法,较少虚报率。