The Use of Coupling Functions in the Forecasting of the Dst-Index Amplitude with Adaptive Methods

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The possible use of artificial neural networks—classical multilayer perceptrons—with coupling functions to forecast time series of the Dst geomagnetic index...     

川滇地区应变率场分布及其变化特征研究

基于GPS多期复测资料, 利用最小二乘配置方法计算川滇地区应变参数, 分析该区域应变率场分布及其变化特征并探讨其分布与强震关系。 研究结果表明: ① 各时段应变率场空间分布的明显变化应属于大于GPS资料误差的真实地壳构造形变信息; ② 最大剪应变率及第一、 第二剪应变率的结果反映了走滑断裂对区域变形的显著控制; ③ 主应变率, 东西、 南北向应变率场动态结果反映的汶川地震孕震的空间尺度较大; ④ 在本区大致反映北东向与北西向剪切变形的第一剪应变率、 东西向应变率、 南北向应变率及最大剪应变率与6级以上地震对应较好。     

青藏高原东北缘主要断裂闭锁特征和滑动亏损研究

利用1999—2015年GPS水平速度场, 基于块体-位错模型, 反演了青藏高原东北缘4条主要断裂(海原断裂, 六盘山断裂, 陇县—宝鸡断裂, 西秦岭北缘断裂)的闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率的空间分布, 并分析了各断裂的地震危险性。 结果显示, 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县-宝鸡断裂北段、 西秦岭北缘断裂东段闭锁程度最强, 闭锁深度达到24 km左右; 西秦岭北缘断裂东段滑动亏损速率最大, 平均值达到3 mm/a; 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县—宝鸡断裂北段滑动亏损速率平均值达到1.9 mm/a, 稍弱于西秦岭北缘断裂东段; 海原断裂闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率相对较小, 闭锁程度和滑动亏损都仅分布在浅部。 我们认为现阶段海原断裂的地震危险性相对较小, 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县—宝鸡北段、 西秦岭北缘断裂东段地震危险性高于这些断裂的其他段落。 这些结果对于青藏高原东北缘地震危险性判定和地震灾害评估具有参考意义。     

Possibilities of remote estimation of the natural remanent magnetization of rocks in the zones of geomagnetic field reversal

The possibilities of the remote estimation of the distribution character of the rock natural remanent magnetization in the zones of geomagnetic field reversal are considered. The Faraday effect—rotation of the signal polarization plane in the magnetic field—is used for this purpose in the process of radar impulse sounding of the magnetic field.     

2016年门源MS6.4地震孕育—发生的地形变异常特征

利用1999—2007年、 2009—2015年和2015—2017年即2016年1月21日门源M_S6.4地震前后的GPS水平运动资料, 以及震区周边200 km半径范围内跨断层流动短水准观测数据, 借助GPS视应变场计算、 冷龙岭断裂剖面的负位错反演, 以及跨断层形变强度新指标的提炼, 综合分析此次强震前相关断裂的中—长期闭锁背景以及断裂活动的中—短期动态演变过程。 结果显示: ① 2009—2015年相对1999—2007年, 祁连山构造区中东部GPS站点间差异运动和挤压变化增强; 跨断层短水准观测也显示震前2年左右时间内相似的断裂活动或形变应变加速特征。 ② 分层非均匀负位错反演揭示与地震相关的冷龙岭等断裂1999—2007年即震前十数年长期闭锁, 2009—2015年即震前6年半上—中层即地表以下0～15.6 km深度闭锁程度明显增大。 ③震区周边半径200 km内跨断层形变强度新指标显示出震前半年内逆断稍占优势的变幅加剧异常, 反映中短期前兆。     

Determination of the Maximum Acceptable Toxicant Concentration (MATC) and the safe Concentration for Certain Aquatic Pollutants

— The 96 h TL₅₀ values, the maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) and the safe concentrations were determined for various aquatic pollutants, viz. thiotox, chlordane, metasystox, dichlorvos, sevin and carbofuran (pesticides), phenol, pentachlorophenol and dinitrophenol (phenolic compounds), cadmium chloride and copper sulphate (heavy metal), swascofix P₁₄, swanic 6 L and swascol 1P (synthetic detergent) using the larvae (the most sensitive stage of the life cycle) of Cyprinus carpio, a fresh water exotic carp. — The estimated MATC ranged between 0.009 and 400 μg/1 for all the pollutants; — the calculated value of the application factor (AF) ranged between 0.0096 and 0.0978. — The safe concentrations were determined for each pollutant by the lowest value of application factor worked out in the present investigation; — safe concentrations were also worked out by different formulae given by different workers. The values obtained were compared with the safe concentrations value worked out by the authors of the present study.     

Strong Seismic Activity of the Terskey Ala-Too Range Adyrs,Northern Tien Shan,in the Holocene from Radiocarbon Analysis Data

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—We studied historical and paleoseismic deformations in the southern Issyk-Kul depression—on the territory of adyrs (piedmonts) of the...     

Next Generation Gravity Missions to Address the Challenges of High-Precision Space Gravimetry

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—Satellite constellations consisting of two spacecraft (SC) pairs moving in different orbits—the so-called next-generation gravity...     

全球变暖背景下春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流年际对应关系的多模式预估

观测事实揭示,春季Hadley环流在年际时间尺度上与东亚夏季风环流和降水具有密切联系.在未来全球变暖背景下,春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流和降水的这种年际关系是否会发生变化？针对该问题,本文在评估的基础上选取五个气候模式,分析了A1B排放情景下春季北半球Hadley环流年际变率的未来变化及其与东亚夏季风环流和降水的年际关系.多模式集合(MME)预估结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,与20世纪末期(1970—1999年)相比,到21世纪末期(2070—2099年),春季北半球Hadley环流的年际变率强度将减弱,减弱幅度达32%.随着春季Hadley环流年际变率的减弱,其与夏季西太平洋副热带高压和东亚夏季风强度的联系将变弱.MME模拟结果还显示,春季Hadley环流与夏季东亚西风急流和降水的关系也降低,但各单个模式间存在较大差异.     

利用GPS资料研究郯庐带现今运动及变形状态

本文利用华北地区1999—2001年, 2001—2004年, 2004—2007年及2007—2009年四期GPS速度场资料, 基于块体的整体旋转与均匀应变模型, 分析了郯庐断裂带中南段的运动及变形特征。 结果显示: 潍坊—郯城段主要为右旋走滑的变形特征, 而郯城—庐江段则为左旋滑动的变形特征, 两段垂直断层方向上的变形表现为“张压交替”的特征。 基于刚体运动模型, 计算了扣除环渤海湾区域整体刚性运动的华北地区GPS速度场, 并分析了环渤海湾区域块体的变形状态, 结果显示环渤海区虽然各期的变形特征不同, 特别是郯庐带附近, 各期的运动特征差异较大, 但基本可反映燕山—渤海地震带是运动特征差异的分界线, 且每期郯庐带各站点的一致性运动明显。     

The hydrography,evolution, and hydrological regime of the mouth area of the Shatt al-Arab River

The hydrography, evolution, landscapes, and hydrological regime of the mouth area of the Shatt al-Arab River—the terminal part of the channel system of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers—are considered. The effect of natural and anthropogenic changes in the Euphrates and Tigris regime and the regime of the Persian Gulf of the Indian Ocean is evaluated.     

桑干河阳原—涿鹿段地貌演化

桑干河发源于山西宁武县, 向NE方向流经大同—阳原盆地和王家湾山地流入怀涿盆地。 桑干河阳原—涿鹿段河流阶地发育较好, 对其阶地的研究有助于更好地理解桑干河的演化及其流经区域的构造活动特征。 而桑干河阳原—涿鹿段地貌演化对了解阳原古湖和怀涿古湖的演变有重要意义。 本文通过遥感影像解译及对高分辨率DEM数据分析, 结合实地测量, 综合研究了阳原—涿鹿段桑干河阶地的发育特征。 结果表明, 该区的构造活动强烈, 经历了断块差异性升降运动; 受差异运动的影响, 该段桑干河经历了被分为东西两支河流, 最终又重新贯通的演化过程。     

Evaluation of the Global Mean Sea Level Budget between 1993 and 2014

Evaluating global mean sea level (GMSL) in terms of its components—mass and steric—is useful for both quantifying the accuracy of the measurements and understanding the processes that contribute to GMSL rise. In this paper, we review the GMSL budget over two periods—1993 to 2014 and 2005 to 2014—using multiple data sets of both total GMSL and the components (mass and steric). In addition to comparing linear trends, we also compare the level of agreement of the time series. For the longer period (1993–2014), we find closure in terms of the long-term trend but not for year-to-year variations, consistent with other studies. This is due to the lack of sufficient estimates of the amount of natural water mass cycling between the oceans and hydrosphere. For the more recent period (2005–2014), we find closure in both the long-term trend and for month-to-month variations. This is also consistent with previous studies.     

TheQ value variations in the preparing process of rock rupture

In this paper, the "spectral amplitude ratio method" (SAR), "energy method" (EN) and "coda wave method" (CW) are used to calculate theQ value variations of gneiss in the preparing rupture process. The obtained results show that the variation state ofQ values by SAR features the shape of relative stability—gradual increment to the maximum—then decrement and final rupture. The variation state ofQ values by EN is just contrary to that by SAR, i. e. with the shape of stability—decrement—increment—and final rupture. The varation state ofQ values by CW is similar to that by EN, its main frequency features the shape of relatively high value—decrement to the minimum—increment—and final rupture. But to the high frequency (higher than the main frequency), the variation state ofQ values features the shape of the stable value-increment to the maximum-decrement-and final rupture. At the same time, the results by coda wave amplitude spectrum show that, when stress reaches 70% of rupture stress, the high frequency component of S wave rapidly reduces (Q _c increasing); at the time of impending the main rupture, the main frequency component reduces with a large scale (Q _c increasing again), this may be the reason which causes the different variation states of two codaQ values. The result of amplitude spectra of P, S (initial wave) waves also show that with the appearance of microcracks the frequency band of S wave turn to be narrow, the high frequency component is reduced quickly, i. e. the S wave spectra have different variation states with different frequency components. That is why theQ _s obtained by different methods have different variation characteristics.     

区域气候模式RegCM3对华北地区未来气候变化的数值模拟

采用高水平分辨率区域气候模式进行区域未来气候变化预估,对理解全球增暖对区域气候的潜在影响和科学评估区域气候变化有很好的参考价值.这里对国家气候中心使用25 km高水平分辨率区域气候模式RegCM3单向嵌套全球模式MIROC3.2_hires在观测温室气体(1951—2000)和IPCC A1B温室气体排放情景下(2001—2100)进行的共计150年长时间模拟结果,进行华北地区未来气温、降水和极端气候事件变化的分析.模式检验结果表明:模式对当代(1981—2000)气温以及和气温有关的极端气候事件(霜冻日数、生长季长度)的空间分布和数值模拟较好;对降水及和降水有关的极端气候事件(强降水日期、降水强度、五日最大降水量)能够模拟出它们各自的主要空间分布特征,但在模拟数值上存在偏大、偏强的误差.和全球模式驱动场相比,区域模式模拟的气温、降水和极端气候事件有明显的改进.2010—2100年华北地区随时间区域平均气温升高幅度逐渐增大,随之霜冻日数逐渐减少,生长季长度逐渐增多;同时随温室效应的不断加剧,未来降水呈增加的趋势,强降水日期和五日最大降水量逐渐增多、降水强度逐渐增大.从空间分布看,21世纪末期(2081—2100)气温、降水以及有关的极端气候事件变化比21世纪中期(2041—2060)更加明显.     

Volcanology and petrology of the Assab Range (Ethiopia)

The results of petrological and volcanological investigations of the Assab area (Ethiopia) are reported. Fissure activity — which produced basaltic lava flows and several spatter cones — and central activity — represented by a cumulus dome and two explosive craters — have been recognized. The area is characterized by E-W and NE-SW tectonic trends, whereas the NNW-SSE « Eritrean trend » is absent. Transverse tectonics is limited to the blocks bordering the Danakil Depression, and never extends into the Depression itself. Mineralogical composition and chemical data point to an alkaline nature of the Assab lavas, which have been classified as: picritic basalts tending to ankaramites; alkali olivine basalts; hawaiites; and all the rock types ranging from mugearites to trachytes. Two rock groups have been identified which could be due to crystal fractionation processes controlled by different degree of oxidation. The petrological difference between the rocks from Afar proper and those from the Danakil block (unquestionably alkaline rock types in the Danakil block, and transitional rock types in Afar) is emphasized.     

Estimating the Frequency and Amplitude Parameters of the Serpentine-Emission Type of Geomagnetic Pulsations

Geomagnetic pulsations of the serpentine-emission (SE) type are considered. A method for estimating the frequency and amplitude parameters in the form of a time function for pulsations—SE and the accompanying spectral components—is suggested. An estimation algorithm is developed on the basis of local approximating polyharmonic models and weighted moving average filtration. Examples of the estimation of the frequency and amplitude parameters of SE pulsations are given. It is proposed that the procedure be used to calculate the estimation errors in SE pulsation frequency parameters and to choose the tuning parameters.     

2004年11月7-8日巨磁暴期间场向电流的分布特征

利用CHAMP卫星磁场数据分析研究了2004年11月7日至8日巨磁暴(Dst<-200 nT)期间大尺度场向电流的分布特征.把方向相同且时间连续的一段场向电流定义为一个电流片,分析结果表明,伴随磁暴的发展,在卫星飞过的两个扇区(早上扇区0200-0400MLT及下午扇区1400-1600MLT)中的大尺度场向电流分布呈现不同的纬向分布特征:随着地磁扰动的增强,早上扇区电流片分布范围向高纬扩展;而下午扇区电流片分布范围则显著地向低纬扩展.与地磁活动SYM-H和AE指数对比分析得出,早上扇区的大尺度电流片的分布特征更多地受到亚暴活动的影响,而下午扇区的电流片分布则明显反映出磁暴环电流活动的特征.     

Relationship between the Parameters of Infrasound Waves and the Energy of the Source

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—A new phenomenological model describing the propagation of acoustic disturbances in the stratospheric waveguide is proposed based on...     

Assessment of the Long-Term Hydrological Forecast Skill Evolution across Lead-Times within the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Framework

Long-term or seasonal forecasting is crucial for the management of large water systems. Advances in catchment hydrology, such as mathematical models of catchment processes, are proven to be capable of creating reliable streamflow forecasting systems. In this study, the limits of predictability of streamflow in a snowmelt-dominated river basin are examined and a new illustration of the forecast efficiency across different issue dates and lead times—the so-called “forecastability map”—is demonstrated.