城市抗震防灾规划中建筑物易损性评价方法的研究

基于功能和后果的抗震设防理念,提出了城市建筑物的分类方法并根据不同类别采取不同抗震易损性评价方法,其中包括应用能力谱的理论易损性分析方法和快速群体震害预测方法等。根据这些方法和泉州市规划区内的房屋调查资料,对泉州市的房屋进行了震害预测,并通过泉州市建筑物地震易损性分析的结果,提出了针对性的抗震减灾策略。所发展的易损性评价方法和对策措施对其他城市编制抗震防灾规划也具有一定参考价值。     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of a high voltage disconnect switch

This paper deals with the seismic vulnerability of high voltage equipment typically installed in electric substations. In particular, the seismic response of a 380 kV vertical disconnect switch has been investigated based on the results of an experimental campaign carried out at Roma Tre University. According to a series of non-linear analyses, the influence of the most significant parameters on the seismic behavior of this apparatus has been analyzed and the corresponding fragility curves have been evaluated by using the Effective Fragility Analysis method. The results showed a limited vulnerability of the disconnect switch, whose most critical parts are the bottom joint of the ceramic support column and the steel column base.     

改进TOPSIS模型在城市地震脆弱性评估中的应用

针对目前仅以城市单体为对象研究城市地震灾害脆弱性,而忽视城市内部不同区域间存在特征差异的问题,选择威海市区作为研究对象,将研究范围细化至22个街道(镇),建立城市小区域地震灾害脆弱性评价模型。从人口、经济、建筑物和生命线系统4个方面选取17个指标构建城市地震脆弱性评价指标体系,应用主客观结合的三角模糊熵法和改进TOPSIS模型,计算出研究区域的相对贴近程度并进行排序,将威海市区划分为4个不同脆弱性等级。结果表明:改进TOPSIS模型能够从整体上对城市地震灾害脆弱性进行评级分区,为城市内部有针对性的制定防震减灾策略提供一个全新的思路。     

公路桥梁地震易损性和震后恢复过程

采用专家调查的方式,统计的我国各种主要公路桥梁在不同烈度的地震发生后可能遭受的结构破坏和功能损失,以及地震发生后所需要的恢复时间。通过分析,给出了大、中、小种规模的斜拉、悬索、板梁式和拱式桥梁的结构破坏概率矩阵、设施损失率、功能损失率分布、损失功能恢复所需要的时间和桥梁在遭受破坏期间所损失的工作日数,并将研究结果与唐山地震之后的实际调查结果进行了对比,得到了一些有益的结果。     

Loss estimation: a powerful tool for risk assessment and mitigation

Earlier loss estimation studies were limited to investigating particular scenarios and were carried out by highly specialized experts. Today, loss estimation techniques are translated into efficient software applications that are accessible by a large constituency of end-users. These techniques offer a high level of analysis sophistication and enable users to perform various ‘if–then’ scenarios to study the sensitivity of the results, to develop a better understanding of the outcomes and to gain insight on the consequences of the findings and decisions. Functionality of loss estimation models has improved significantly due to advances in information technology such as the introduction of Geographical Information Systems (GIS). GIS allows for easy display of input and output (in standard reports and maps) providing a critical functionality for communication of outcomes to emergency planners and decision-makers.     

汶川地震区砖砌体住宅房屋易损性研究

砖砌体住宅房屋占城乡建筑的80%以上,它的易损性分析是进行地震灾害损失预测的重要组成部分。文中介绍了砖砌体住宅房屋易损性的分析方法及存在的问题,充分利用汶川地震区砖砌体住宅房屋的震害调查数据,考虑到建筑物数据的离散性,分别给出了城区砖砌体住宅房屋、农村砖砌体住宅房屋两类建筑物群体的破坏状态易损性曲线包络(最大、平均、最小值),从而给出了其破坏概率矩阵,并给出了每个破坏概率的偏差值。     

A GIS-based seismic hazard,building vulnerability and human loss assessment for the earthquake scenario in Tabriz

A GIS-oriented procedure that may partially illuminate the consequences of a possible earthquake is presented in two main steps (seismic microzonation and vulnerability steps) along with its application in Tabriz (a city in NW Iran). First, the detailed geological, geodetical, geotechnical and geophysical parameters of the region are combined using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a deterministic near-field earthquake of magnitude 7 in the North Tabriz Fault is simulated. This simulation provides differing intensities of ground shaking in the different districts of Tabriz. Second, the vulnerability of buildings, human losses and basic resources for survivors is estimated in district two of the city based on damage functions and relational analyses. The results demonstrate that 69.5% of existing buildings are completely destroyed, and the rate of fatalities is approximately 33% after a nighttime scenario. Finally, the same procedure was applied to an actual earthquake (first event on the 11th of August, 2012 of the Ahar twin earthquakes) to validate the presented model based on two aspects: (1) building damages and (2) seismic intensity.     

Earthquake risk assessment of lifelines

This paper presents the RISK-UE methodology for the seismic risk assessment of utility systems (potable water, waste-water, gas system, telecommunication, electric power) and transportation infrastructures (port, airport, road and railway system). The proposed methodology provides a uniform basis for the reduction of the consequences of lifeline damages in urban areas and an efficient mitigation strategy and prioritization policies for pre-earthquake and post earthquake actions. A detailed inventory for every element at risk together with a reliable seismic hazard assessment, appropriate selection of fragility models, estimation of the “global value” and economical impact of lifeline damages and losses are the main steps of the proposed methodology. The consideration of European distinctive features of lifelines and utility systems in the construction of seismic scenarios and the proposition of fragility curves are among the basic aims of the proposed methodology. Different modules of the methodology were applied in seven pilot cities (Thessaloniki, Catania, Nice, Bucharest, Sofia, Barcelona, Bitola). We present herein few representative examples (case studies) in order to illustrate the methodology and to prove its efficiency.     

Effects of deep excavation on seismic vulnerability of existing reinforced concrete framed structures

In this paper the effects of deep excavation on seismic vulnerability of existing buildings are investigated. It is well known that deep excavations induce significant changes both in stress and strain fields of the soil around them, causing a displacement field which can modify both the static and dynamic responses of existing buildings. A FEM model of a real case study, which takes into account geometry, non-linear soil behavior, live and dead loads, boundary conditions and soil–structure interaction, has been developed in order to estimate the soil displacements and their effects on seismic behavior of a reinforced concrete framed system close to deep excavation. Considering a significant accelerometric seismic input, the non-linear dynamic responses of the reinforced concrete framed structure, both in the pre and post-excavation configurations, have been evaluated and, then, compared to estimate the modification in seismic vulnerability, by means of different seismic damage indices and inter-story drifts.     

On the vulnerability assessment of monumental buildings

In all European countries the will to conserve the building heritage is very strong. Unfortunately, large areas in Europe are characterised by a high level of seismic hazard and the vulnerability of ancient masonry structures is often relevant. The large number of monumental buildings in urban areas requires facing the problem with a methodology that can be applied at territorial scale, with simplified models which need little easily obtainable, data. Within the Risk-UE project, a new methodology has been stated for the seismic vulnerability assessment of monumental buildings, which considers two different approaches: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. Both models can be used with data of different reliability and depth. This paper illustrates the theoretical basis and defines the parameters of the two models. An application to an important church is presented.     

A simplified approach for vulnerability assessment in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions: application to Grenoble (France)

Due to the moderate seismic risks in France, the building vulnerability assessment methods developed for high seismic risk countries could not easily be used here because of their cost and the low-risk perception among the public and officials. A light vulnerability assessment method is proposed and tested in Grenoble (France), based on classes and scores provided in the GNDT method but simplified in terms of visual screening and number of structural parameters used. Compared to the RiskUE method, the damage obtained by our approach shows that 90% of buildings have residuals smaller than 0.2, i.e. one grade of the EMS98 damage scale. A large scale survey is devised and conducted among the inhabitants of Grenoble in order to collect the main structural parameters. By comparing the results from the survey to the historical urbanization of Grenoble and to expert surveys performed in two urban districts, the information useful for the light method of vulnerability assessment can be rapidly collected by non-experts reducing substantially the estimate cost. The average damage is then computed using the GNDT formula considering the probable intensities which could be observed in Grenoble (VII and VIII). The average damage reaches 0.4 in the oldest part of Grenoble mainly made of masonry buildings and 0.2 in reinforced concrete suburbs where reinforced concrete predominates. The results are a relative vulnerability assessment that provides useful initial information for the urban zones of Grenoble where the vulnerability is higher. This method can be used to classify the seismic vulnerability in wide seismic-prone regions to a fair degree of accuracy and at low cost.     

Rapid estimation of earthquake loss based on instrumental seismic intensity: design and realization

As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the M _L4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.     

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes.FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores.The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified.The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.     

Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach

Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios.     

Reservoir-type water source vulnerability assessment: a case study of the Yuqiao Reservoir,China

ABSTRACT

In this study, we developed a method to assess reservoir-type water source vulnerability (WSV) and adapted the method to the Yuqiao Reservoir (in Tianjin in North China). First, we identified the factors that influence reservoir vulnerability and selected suitable indexes for vulnerability assessment. Second, the CRITIC, AHP and integrated weighting methods were applied to quantify the index weight. Third, the information diffusion method was applied to process the index data. Finally, the vulnerability of the Yuqiao Reservoir was assessed, and the results showed that the vulnerability of the Yuqiao Reservoir is high, with social factors (i.e. the road traffic system, automatic management control system, potential menace in evaluation scope, destructive man-made accidents, emergency management plan, and per capita water consumption) being the main reasons.     

Catchment-scale vulnerability assessment of groundwater pollution from diffuse sources using the DRASTIC method: a case study

Abstract

The catchment-scale groundwater vulnerability assessment that delineates zones representing different levels of groundwater susceptibility to contaminants from diffuse agricultural sources has become an important element in groundwater pollution prevention for the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). This paper evaluates the DRASTIC method using an ArcGIS platform for assessing groundwater vulnerability in the Upper Bann catchment, Northern Ireland. Groundwater vulnerability maps of both general pollutants and pesticides in the study area were generated by using data on the factors depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity, as defined in DRASTIC. The mountain areas in the study area have “high” (in 4.5% of the study area) or “moderate” (in 25.5%) vulnerability for general pollutants due to high rainfall, net recharge and soil permeability. However, by considering the diffuse agricultural sources, the mountain areas are actually at low groundwater pollution risk. The results of overlaying the maps of land use and the groundwater vulnerability are closer to the reality. This study shows that the DRASTIC method is helpful for guiding the prevention practices of groundwater pollution at the catchment scale in the UK.

Citation Yang, Y. S. & Wang, L. (2010 Yang, Y. S. and Wang, L. 2010. A review of modelling tools for implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive in handling diffuse water pollution. Water Resour. Manage., 24: 1819–1843.  [Google Scholar]) Catchment scale vulnerability assessment of groundwater pollution from diffuse sources using the DRASTIC method: a case study. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1206–1216.     

玉树7.1级地震震后损失快速评估

2010年4月14日7时49分,在青海省玉树县发生里氏7.1级地震,震中位于北纬33.2°、东经96.6°,震源深度为14 km.在玉树地震发生后,基于经验模型的震后损失快速评估方法,用较少的信息和数据,对玉树地震灾情进行了快速应急评估,绘制了经验等震线图,给出了房屋损失的初步评估结果,与最终的损失调查统计结果相比,震...     

Building vulnerability assessment and damage scenarios in Celano (Italy) using a quick survey data-based methodology

A procedure for assessing the seismic vulnerability of residential buildings is presented along with the results of its application in an Italian town in Abruzzo (Celano Aq). This procedure is part of a methodological proposal which includes specific studies on expected seismic inputs and site effects analyses. The procedure is based on a simplified collection of data, such as typological features and factors concerning the seismic behaviour of buildings, and provides an estimate of seismic vulnerability and an expected damage forecast using fragility curves. The instruments and methods used for the Celano project are an updated and improved version of those applied to previous vulnerability investigations. This paper demonstrates how this procedure can meet the objectives of the integrated methodology proposed. In fact, the information that can be obtained using this procedure—state of vulnerability, risk analyses and GIS presentations of damage scenarios—could be used in urban planning to reduce seismical risk.     

基于三维图像模式识别的西藏东南部地震灾害损失风险评估

本文在对西藏东南部各县的建筑类型、数量、易损性调查的基础上,对不同类型的建筑建立了模式类向量,使用三维图像模式识别技术估计了各类型建筑在西藏东南部各县市的数量分布,建立了不同建筑物的结构易损性和人口易损性模型,并且估算了西藏东南部各县在遭遇一次设定地震时的损失分布和基于危险性的未来50年可能的损失分布情况.本文研究表明,若曲松—桑日发生7.5级地震,可能造成拉萨、山南两市较重的人员伤亡,其中曲松县和乃东区伤亡最重.西藏东南部未来50年建筑地震风险最高的地区是拉萨市区、林芝市区和错那县,其中拉萨市区的建筑财产损失风险最高.