白令海和楚科奇海鱼类种类组成及其对生态环境变化的响应

根据第4次中国北极科学考察在白令海与楚科奇海进行的鱼类拖网调查资料,分析了白令海与楚科奇海鱼类生物的种类组成、优势种、物种多样性和区系特征,探讨了鱼类生物对北极气候快速变化的响应。结果表明,白令海与楚科奇海两个海域共鉴定鱼类生物14科41种;主要优势种类为粗壮拟庸鲽(Hippoglossoides robustus)、北鳕(Boreogadus saida)、短角床杜父鱼(Myoxocephalus scorpius)、斑鳍北鳚(Lumpenus fabricii)、粗糙钩杜父鱼(Artediellus scaber);从适温性来看,冷水性种类最多,有35种,冷温性种类6种;从栖息地生态类型来看,底层鱼类、近底层鱼类和中上层鱼类分别为35、5和1种;Shannon-Wiener多样性指数平均为1.21,呈现南高北低的特点,整体多样性水平不高;气候变化引起部分北极、亚北极海区鱼类出现不同程度的纬向和纵向移动,由此将引起北极渔业资源分布格局的变化。     

Composition of fish species in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and their responses to changes in the ecological environment

Based on trawl surveys in the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea during the 2010 Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition, fish biodiversity characteristics, such as fish composition, dominant species, biodiversity, and faunal characteristics were conducted. We also discussed the responses of fishes to the quick changes in Arctic climate. The results showed that a total of 41 species in 14 families were recorded in these waters. The dominant species were Hippoglossoides robustus, Boreogadus saida, Myoxocephalus scorpius, Lumpenus fabricii, and Artediellus scaber. There were 35 coldwater species, accounting for 85.37%, and six cold temperate species, occupying 14.63%. The habitat types of fish could be grouped as follows: 35 species of demersal fishes, five benthopelagic fishes, and one pelagic fish. The Shannon–Wiener diversity index(H)(range between 0 and 2.18, 1.21 on average) was not high, and descended from south to north. Climate change has caused some fishes to shift along their latitudinal and longitudinal distribution around the Arctic and Subarctic areas, and this could lead to the decline of Arctic fishery resources.     

A preliminary assessment of threats to arctic marine mammals and their conservation in the coming decades

Over the next several decades, arctic marine mammals will face threats from six areas of human influence: climate change, environmental contaminants, offshore oil and gas activities, shipping, hunting, and commercial fisheries. This paper reviews these factors, the nature and magnitude of the threats they pose, current scientific understanding and management of those threats, and the potential for effective conservation action. Climate change, offshore oil and gas activities, and commercial fisheries likely pose the greatest threats. Addressing the combined effects of all six factors, however, will be particularly difficult but essential to prevent declines beyond those that have already occurred.     

北冰洋公海渔业权益争端的博弈分析——基于环北极国家视角

北冰洋公海尚处于冰封状态,但气候变暖、海冰加速融化使未来公海出现新渔场成为可能,其战略价值因而得到国际关注。当前,环北极国家已率先展开渔业权益争夺。为分析北冰洋公海渔业事务的国际走势,文章基于博弈论思想,构建非对称懦夫博弈模型及古诺模型来模拟和探究环北极国家在渔业利益争夺中的合作或冲突行为,研究得出:现阶段北冰洋公海渔业权益争端主要表现为渔业管理权的争夺,在该博弈中,非北冰洋沿岸国采取退让策略,沿岸国采取进攻策略,可以达到进化稳定均衡;一旦公海具备捕鱼条件,争端将演化为开发模式选择的博弈,此时,北冰洋沿岸国采取合作开发策略可以有效保护公海渔业资源,并实现国家的长期利益。     

Adoption of the arctic search and rescue agreement: A shift of the arctic regime toward a hard law basis?

This paper examines the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement—the first legally-binding instrument negotiated and adopted under the auspices of the Arctic Council—and analyzes its implications for the current Arctic regime. Led by the Arctic Council, the Arctic regime was established in a soft law format. However, the soft law nature and restricted mandates of the Arctic Council have limited its capacity to respond to new issues emerging from climate change, particularly those related to the exploitation of oil and gas reserves, commercial shipping through the region, effects on wildlife, and impacts on indigenous peoples' homelands and culture. The adoption of the Agreement represents a new approach for the Arctic States to respond to these new challenges. At the same time, it does not imply that a legally-binding instrument is necessarily preferable for every issue, and importantly, the new Arctic Agreement does not establish new institutional relationships, suggesting satisfaction among the Arctic States with the existing arrangements. Thus, although the Arctic regime is undoubtedly changing, this change should not be treated today as a shift from soft to hard law. What is more certain is that the Arctic Council will continue to function as a cooperative forum where the Arctic States can address these challenges, and its importance will only increase in coming years.     

A climate-informed,ecosystem approach to fisheries management

This paper outlines the benefits of using the framework for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) for dealing with the inevitable yet unclear impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coastal fisheries. With a focus on the Asia-Pacific region, it summarizes the projected biological and socio-economic effects of increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) for coastal fisheries and illustrates how all the important dimensions of climate change and ocean acidification can be integrated into the steps involved in the EAFM planning process. The activities required to harness the full potential of an EAFM as an adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification are also described, including: provision of the necessary expertise to inform all stakeholders about the risks to fish habitats, fish stocks and catches due to climate change; promotion of trans-disciplinary collaboration; facilitating the participation of all key stakeholders; monitoring the wider fisheries system for climate impacts; and enhancing resources and capacity to implement an EAFM. By channeling some of the resources available to the Asia-Pacific region to adapt to climate change into an EAFM, developing countries will not only build resilience to the ecological and fisheries effects of climate change, they will also help address the habitat degradation and overfishing presently reducing the productivity of coastal fisheries.     

Overview of West African fisheries under climate change: Impacts,vulnerabilities and adaptive responses of the artisanal and industrial sectors

Climate change affects ocean conditions, fish stocks and hence fisheries. In West Africa, climate change impacts on fisheries were projected to be mainly negative through multi-facet ways. However, analysis of adaptation responses of fishers to climate change impacts is scarce. This paper reviews the impacts on climate change on fisheries in West Africa and discusses the potential adaptation strategies adopted by both the artisanal and industrial fishing sectors. Overall, climate change and over-exploitation have altered species composition of fisheries catches in West Africa. The effect of ocean warming on fisheries is indicated by the increase in dominance of warmer water species in the landings, shown from an increase in Mean Temperature of Catch, in the region. Climate change induced changes in potential catch and species composition, which inherently have similar symptoms as over-exploitation, are expected to have repercussions on the economic and social performance of fisheries. Both artisanal and industrial sectors may adapt to these changes mainly through expansion of fishing ground that increases operation costs. Our results highlight that historical changes in target species are more common in industrial than artisanal fisheries. This result challenges the prevailing assumption that artisanal fisheries, given their limited movement capacity, would adapt to climate change by shifting target species and/or gear type.     

Vulnerability to impacts of climate change on marine fisheries and food security

Assessment of fisheries vulnerability to climate change is an important step for enhancing the understanding and decision-making to reduce such vulnerability. This study aimed to provide an analysis of country level vulnerability focusing on food security implications of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries. The comparative magnitude and distribution of potential food security impacts of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries were assessed for 109 countries by scoring and ranking countries against a set of vulnerability criteria including metrics of national exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, highlighting the contribution of marine fisheries to national food and nutrition security. Results showed that developing countries in Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Latin America appeared to be most vulnerable, and the key sources of vulnerability differed considerably among the countries. For countries most vulnerable to climate-induced effects on marine fisheries, more than two-thirds of them depended on domestic marine fisheries as a main source of fish supply. Developing appropriate adaptation policies and management plans to reduce the impacts of changing climate is of great importance to sustain food security in these highly vulnerable and heavy marine fisheries-dependent countries.     

Communicating climate change: Climate change risk perceptions and rock lobster fishers, Tasmania

World fisheries, already vulnerable, are under increasing pressure from the impacts of climate change. Using the Tasmanian rock lobster industry as a case study, we considered the efficacy of risk perception as a tool to inform how to communicate the science of climate change and suggestions for management in relation to development of adaptation strategies for fisheries. Fishers surveyed in this study operate in a fishery that is expected to undergo large changes as a consequence of climate change. Fishers also reported observations of similar large changes in the marine environment and lobster fishery consistent with climate change; yet most fishers surveyed expressed doubts about whether climate change was a real process. The important point for adaption of the industry to climate change is that fisher perceptions of risk tended to create barriers to acceptance of climate change as an issue. This means that there is a barrier to communication and awareness about climate change and thus a barrier to future action on the issue. Improving acceptance of climate change and thus ability to adapt will require the development of communications that are culturally appropriate and palatable to fishers. We argue that the application of social learning principles in communications about climate change may be one constructive way forward.     

误差订正对2018年夏季次季节尺度海冰预测的作用

北极海冰次季节尺度预测在针对破冰船和商船的实际服务中十分重要,但常常受制于气候模拟的模拟能力。本研究提出了一种误差订正方法并分别应用到两个气候模式：海洋一所地球系统模式（FIOESM）和美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）的气候预报系统（CFS）,来改善北极海冰60天尺度的预测。本研究的预测工作是中国第9次北极科学考察和2018年夏季中远集团北极商业航行的业务化海冰服务保障的重要部分。模式起报时间分别是2018年7月1日、8月1日和9月1日,预报时效均是60天。结果显示,FIOESM整体上低估了海冰密集度的数值,平均偏差可达30%。误差订正对海冰密集度（SIC）的均方根偏差（RMSE）的改进比例可达27%,对海冰外缘线（SIE）的整体偏差（IIEE）的改进比例为10%。而对于CFS,SIE在边缘区域的过高估计是其主要特点。误差订正导致了SIC的RMSE改进了7%,而对SIE的IIEE改进了17%。在海冰范围预测方面,FIOESM预测的最小范围数值和时间点都和观测接近,而CFS的预测结果偏差较大。另外和其他S2S模式的结果比较发现,本研究提出的误差订正方法对存在较大偏差的预测结果改进更为有效。     

基于无线电探空和无线电掩星观测的北极上层气温研究

The air temperature is one of the most important parameters used for monitoring the Arctic climate change. The constellation observing system for meteorology, ionosphere, and climate and Formosa Satellite Mission 3(COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3) radio occultation(RO) "wet" temperature product(i.e., "wet Prf") is used to analyze the Arctic air temperature profiles at 925–200 hPa in 2007–2012. The "wet" temperatures are further compared with radiosonde(RS) observations. The results from the spatially and temporally synchronized RS and COSMIC observations show that their temperatures agree well with each other, especially at 400 hPa. Comparisons of seasonal temperatures and anomalies from the COSMIC and homogenized RS observations suggest that the limited number of COSMIC observations during the spatial matchup may be insufficient to describe the smallscale spatial structure of temperature variations. Furthermore, comparisons of the seasonal temperature anomalies from the RS and 5°×5° gridded COSMIC observations at 400 hPa during the sea ice minimum(SIM) of2007 and 2012 are also made. The results reveal that similar Arctic temperature variation patterns can be obtained from both RS and COSMIC observations over the land area, while extra information can be further provided from the densely distributed COSMIC observations. Therefore, despite COSMIC observations being unsuitable to describe the Arctic temperatures in the lowest level, they provide a complementary data source to study the Arctic upper-air temperature variations and related climate change.     

High Arctic sea ice conditions influence marine birds wintering in Low Arctic regions

Ocean climate change is having profound biological effects in polar regions. Such change can also have far-reaching downstream effects in sub-polar regions. This study documents an environmental relationship between High Arctic sea ice changes and mortality events of marine birds in Low Arctic coastal regions. During April 2007 and March 2009, hundreds of beached seabird carcasses and moribund seabirds were found along the east and northeast coasts of Newfoundland, Canada. These seabird “wrecks” (i.e. dead birds on beaches) coincided with a period of strong, persistent onshore winds and heavily-accumulated sea ice that blocked bays and trapped seabirds near beaches. Ninety-two percent of wreck seabirds were Thick-billed Murres (Uria lomvia). Body condition and demographic patterns of wreck murres were compared to Thick-billed Murres shot in the Newfoundland murre hunt. Average body and pectoral masses of wreck carcasses were 34% and 40% lighter (respectively) than shot murres, indicating that wreck birds had starved. The acute nature of each wreck suggested that starvation and associated hypothermia occurred within 2–3 days. In 2007, first-winter murres (77%) dominated the wreck. In 2009, there were more adults (78%), mostly females (66%). These results suggest that spatial and temporal segregation in ages and sexes can play a role in differential survival when stochastic weather conditions affect discrete areas where these groups aggregate. In wreck years, southward movement of Arctic sea ice to Low Arctic latitudes was later and blocked bays longer than in most other years. These inshore conditions corresponded with recent climate-driven changes in High Arctic ice break-up and ice extent; coupled with local weather conditions, these ice conditions appeared to be the key environmental features that precipitated the ice-associated seabird wrecks in the Low Arctic region.     

Lessons in regional cooperation from the arctic

The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum for the Arctic states, which have an outreach beyond the Arctic circle. It is a unique international regime for cooperation among governments and indigenous peoples. The Arctic Council has a very light administration and no obligatory funding. The Host Country of the Council provides a Secretariat and serves as a hub in a network in active operation. Projects are administered by a lead partner, often a Member State or a Indigenous people's organisation. Most of the work is done in Working Groups of Experts. In 1998, The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme delivered a science-based Assessment Report on Arctic Pollution Issues. This report has influenced strongly on the global negotiations on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals. The Stockholm Convention on POPs 2001 is a significant step forward for the protection of the Arctic environment and for people living in the Arctic, who are dependent on harvesting as a central source of livelihood. The Arctic Council has adopted a Regional Plan of Action, which follows the UNEP methodology on the Protection of the Marine Environment from land-based activities. In June 2001, a report on the status and conservation of Flora and Fauna was delivered to the Arctic Council by the experts, who were requested to prepare recommendations on biodiversity conservation on the basis of the status report. The most important project for the time being is the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Close to 200 climate scientific experts from 11 countries are participating in the project, which will deliver its final report in 2004. Science-based decision making is an Arctic Council brand. In addition, the Council takes into account traditional knowledge provided by indigenous peoples. The overall goal is to enhance sustainable development in the Arctic. The Council contributes to a better knowledge base for decision-making. Political recommendations are agreed upon unanimously. Much of the implementation is done by the member states themselves and appropriate international organisations. The ambition is to integrate sustainable development principles into all activities and projects under the auspices of the Arctic Council.     

白令海及西北冰洋有机质来源与新鲜程度的脂肪酸指示

白令海、西北冰洋等高生产力海域在北冰洋"生物泵"中起到重要作用;海水升温、海冰消退等北极快速变化,将强烈影响该海域"生物泵"的结构与规模,并在沉积物中有机质的来源与新鲜程度上有所体现,可用脂肪酸加以指征。对第五次、第六次中国北极科学考察在以上海域采集的表层沉积物进行脂肪酸含量(以沉积物干重计)及组成分析,结果显示楚科奇海陆架总脂肪酸含量非常高((97.15±55.31)μg/g),白令海盆最低((15.00±1.30)μg/g),加拿大海盆、楚科奇海陆坡、白令海陆架居中(分别为(88.65±3.52)μg/g,(70.35±11.32)μg/g与(38.28±14.89)μg/g)。海源脂肪酸占总脂肪酸比例最高(86.82%±7.08%),陆源次之(8.45%±6.62%),细菌最低(4.63%±2.24%);硅藻指数(16:1ω9/16:0)在楚科奇海陆架(> 0.82)、白令海陆架边缘(> 0.65)较高,其他区域均较低。脂肪酸结果表明:(1)该海域沉积有机质主要来自海源,陆源贡献小;在北部、南部楚科奇海陆架、白令海陆架边缘,硅藻生物量占主要优势;细菌脂肪酸比例显著低于...     

北极地区深海微生物研究进展及对策

对北极地区深海微生物研究进展进行了综述和展望分析,并提出强化我国北极深海微生物研究的对策,以期为相关研究和决策提供参考。综述表明北极深海微生物具有丰富的多样性,是数量巨大的遗传基因资源承载者,群落结构表现出显著的空间分布差异,在北极深海食物链中可能发挥着基础性作用。展望分析提出聚焦北极深海这一特殊的极端环境,开展微生物多样性和地理分布特征研究、新颖遗传生化功能挖掘以及多尺度生态系统下微生物与环境变化的研究具有重要意义和价值。建议我国顶层布局、构建北极深海微生物协同研究体系,提升专用配套仪器装备保障能力,全面推进相关研究工作。     

Success in heading north?: South Korea's master plan for Arctic policy

South Korea's seven governmental ministries and agency jointly announced a “Master Plan for Arctic Policy” on December 10, 2013. This represents the state's first comprehensive Arctic policy document. This paper aims to analyze the Korean government's Master Plan from both the legal and policy perspectives, as well as to make constructive comments for its improvement. Environmental changes, the need for scientific research, growing economic optimism about the Arctic region, and political leadership have led South Korea to head north. These four factors form the basis for the Master Plan. This document outlines Korea's vision (to be a reliable and responsible partner in this polar region), three policy goals, four strategies, and thirty-one projects connected to the Arctic region. The formation of the Master Plan has been an opportunity for South Korea to organize and compile all the various Arctic activities independently conducted by governmental ministries and agency. In order to improve South Korea's Arctic policy since the Master Plan, the author recommends that the nation prioritize its projects according to its needs and the feasibility of each project. Prudence is required in the drafting and implementation of Arctic policy to respect Arctic states' sovereignties and sovereign rights over the Arctic areas. Finally, strengthening cooperation with the Arctic states and at Arctic forums is indispensable. In particular, bilateral cooperation is essential for South Korea to perform economic activities such as the exploration for oil and gas.     

北极海冰输出研究综述

北极海冰对全球气候变化起重要的指示作用。除了海水冻结和融化过程以外,通过弗拉姆海峡(Fram Strait)的海冰输出也是影响北极海冰质量变化的重要动力机制。观测数据中的多源卫星遥感数据(尤其是辐射计观测数据)在获取大尺度连续观测方面具有独特的优势,在研究北极海冰输出面积通量变化方面有着广泛应用。本文总结了北极弗拉姆海峡、其他通道(S-FJL、FJL-SZ、加拿大群岛、Nares海峡通道)海冰输出面积或体积通量,着重介绍了弗拉姆海峡不同年龄海冰输出情况,并总结和分析了影响北极海冰输运的大尺度大气活动模态。最后,本文阐明北极海冰输出方面现有研究的不足之处以及未来的突破方向。     

末次冰消期以来北极东北陆架对快速气候变化的响应

北极快速气候变化越来越深刻影响着北极地区以及全球的环境变化,已成为当今地球科学研究的重大前沿科学问题。北极东北陆架作为世界上最宽广平坦的陆架,既是北冰洋季节性海冰形成的主要源区,又是现代海冰变化最强烈的区域,对气候变化敏感,响应强烈,属于环境脆弱地区。通过全面分析近年来国际上在末次冰消期以来快速气候变化背景下北极东北陆架环境响应的研究进展和存在的主要问题,阐述了沉积物“源—汇”过程、海冰演化历史、碳循环以及快速气候变化事件等方面取得的研究成果,发现东北陆架地区沉积物和有机碳来源复杂,时空变化强烈,气候和环境变化过程与海冰演化息息相关。未来的研究应加强现代过程的长期连续观测,重视地质记录中气候环境演变信号的精确解译,深化数值模拟技术和大数据的挖掘与使用,开展不同时间尺度北极快速气候变化及其驱动机制研究,并加强北极快速气候变化对中纬度地区特别是对东亚以及我国环境变化影响的研究。     

Development of an integrated fisheries co-management framework for new and emerging commercial fisheries in the Canadian Beaufort Sea

The Canadian Beaufort Sea is one of the last places on Earth that has not experienced large-scale commercial fisheries. The aboriginal people of the western Canadian Arctic, the Inuvialuit, have become increasingly concerned about the potential effects of large-scale commercial operations on key subsistence species of fish and marine mammals and the marine ecosystem upon which they depend. A 1984 comprehensive land settlement agreement (treaty) between Canada and the Inuvialuit established a co-management regime for limited aspects of fish and marine mammal resource management, and gave the Inuvialuit rights to subsistence fisheries and existing commercial fisheries but no preference for new commercial fisheries. The Fisheries Joint Management Committee (the fisheries co-management body), the Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans, the Inuvialuit Regional Corporation and the Inuvialuit Game Council have developed an integrated fisheries management framework agreement for the review and assessment of any proposed commercial fisheries within the Canadian Beaufort Sea. The agreement provides clarity and transparency for decision making and strengthens the protection of fish stocks. The development of the framework depended upon a history of cooperation between the parties and a bridging initiative by the Fisheries Joint Management Committee and an NGO that brought together the Inuvialuit and the government.     

地球系统模式FIO-ESM对北极海冰的模拟和预估

评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)的历史实验对北极海冰的模拟能力,分析了该模式基于CMIP5未来情景实验在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs,Representative Concentration Pathways)下对北极海冰的预估情况。通过与卫星观测的海冰覆盖范围资料相比,该模式能够很好地模拟出多年平均海冰覆盖范围的季节变化特征,模拟的气候态月平均海冰覆盖范围均在卫星观测值±15%范围以内。FIO-ESM能够较好地模拟1979-2005年期间北极海冰的衰减趋势,模拟衰减速度为每年减少2.24×104 km2,但仍小于观测衰减速度(每年减少4.72×104 km2)。特别值得注意的是:不同于其他模式所预估的海冰一直衰减,FIO-ESM对21世纪北极海冰预估在不同情景下呈现不同的变化趋势,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,北极海冰总体呈增加趋势,在RCP6情景下,北极海冰基本维持不变,而在RCP8.5情景下,北极海冰呈现继续衰减趋势。