Comment on ‘Testing earthquake prediction methods: “The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8”’ by V.G. Kossobokov

In his paper Kossobokov investigates the efficiency of our short-term forecast for two western Pacific regions. Although we agree with the basic results of his evaluation that the forecast statistics is much better than a random guess, we have reservations about his definition of earthquake prediction, some of his tests, and his interpretation of the test results. We distinguish between deterministic earthquake predictions and statistical forecasts. We argue that some techniques used by Kossobokov may not be appropriate for testing our forecasts and discuss other testing methods, based on the likelihood function. We demonstrate that Kossobokov's null hypothesis may be biased, and this bias can influence some of his conclusions. We show that contrary to Kossobokov's statement, our algorithm predicts mainshocks when they are preceded by foreshocks.     

‘Now that the dust has settled…’ the impacts of Icelandic volcanic eruptions

Volcanic eruptions generate hazards, are potent agents of landscape change and have the power to alter global climate. Recent events in Iceland have emphasised the multi‐scale and trans‐boundary nature of hazards from ice‐volcano interactions and have highlighted their local, national and international impacts. Prompted by these recent events, this article reviews a selection of Icelandic volcanic eruptions in order to demonstrate the diversity of hazards and impacts generated by Icelandic volcanic activity. Some of the challenges associated with managing risks from Icelandic volcanic hazards are discussed and future prospects are outlined.     

α- and β-diversity Change of Late Ordovician Hirnantia Fauna of Changning, Sichuan, Southwest China

A continuous Ordovician-Silurian boundary section from the upper Wufeng Formation through the Kuanyinchiao Formation to the lower Lungmachi Formation has been carefully measured and collected at Shuanghe of Changning, southern Sichuan Province. For the first time, the temporal changes of α- and β-diversities of the Hirnantia fauna have been discussed in great detail. The general trend of brachiopod diversity change, increasing upward, is consistent with the regional trend of the Yangtze Platform, which had been controlled by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. However, the sudden drop of diversity for a short period in the upper Kuanyinchiao Formation might have been controlled by environmental factors rather than normal faunal turnover. Synecological analysis using numerical methods recognizes two brachiopod-dominated associations of the Hirnantia fauna, the Dalmanella-Kinnella Association and the Mirorthis Association, both living in an offshore, deeper water environment corresponding to BA3-upper BA4, particularly lower BA3.     

Basin‐scale thermal and fluid flow histories revealed by carbonate clumped isotopes (Δ47) – Middle Jurassic carbonates of the Paris Basin depocentre

The reconstruction of past diagenetic conditions in sedimentary basins is often under‐constrained. This results from both the analytical challenge of performing the required analyses on the minute sample amounts available from diagenetic mineral phases and the lack of tracers for some of the diagenetic parameters. The carbonate clumped isotope thermometry (Δ₄₇) opens new perspectives for unravelling the temperatures of diagenetic phases together with the source of their parent fluids, two parameters that are otherwise impossible to constrain in the absence of exploitable fluid inclusions. Here is reported the study of a large number of sedimentary and diagenetic carbonate phases (from Middle Jurassic reservoirs of the Paris Basin depocentre) by combining detailed petrographic observations with a large number of Δ₄₇ data (n  > 45) on a well‐documented paragenetic sequence, including calcite and dolomite burial cements. The data reveal carbonate crystallization at temperatures between 29°C and 98°C from fluids with δ ¹⁸O_water values between −7‰ and +2‰, in response to the progressive burial and uplift of the Paris Basin, throughout 165 Myr of basin evolution. Coupled with the time–temperature evolution previously estimated from thermal maturity modelling, these temperatures allow determining the timing of four successive cementation episodes. The overall data set indicates a history of complex water mixing with a significant contribution of hypersaline waters from the Triassic aquifers migrated upward along faults during the Cretaceous subsidence of the basin. Subsequent large‐scale infiltrations of meteoric waters induced a dilution of these pre‐existing brines in response to the Paris Basin uplift in the Tertiary. Overall, the data presented here allow proposing an integrated approach to characterize the cementation events affecting the studied carbonate reservoir units, based on temperature, oxygen isotope composition and salinity of the parent fluids as well as on petrographic grounds.     

Late‐Quaternary history of ‘great lakes’ on the Tibetan Plateau and palaeoclimatic implications – A review

Geomorphic evidence suggests that shorelines of 100–200 m above the modern lake levels were common across the Tibetan Plateau during late Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. The timing of this lake‐level highstand is mainly based on radiocarbon ages. Problems surrounding the ages of lacustrine sediments at or beyond the limit of the radiocarbon‐dating method have created a need for alternative geochronometers. Chronological advances during the last decade have renewed interest in the timing of events beyond the limit of radiocarbon dating. Here, we synthesize published data for elevated lacustrine landforms of 48 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, in order to provide a thorough perspective on the timing and pattern of lake‐level changes in this alpine area during the late Quaternary. The ages of these elevated shore features reveal a long‐term trend of relative lake‐level fall from at least MIS 5, instead of a peak in MIS 3, as previously thought. Dating lacustrine terrace sequences reveals that the rate of lake‐level fall ranged from ~1 to 3 mm a^?1, comparable with that of related river downcutting across the plateau. Palaeoclimatic proxy records point to a sustained drying since the Last Interglacial, suggesting that long‐term aridification might be the culprit for this widespread and progressive lake‐level fall.     

Calculated phase equilibria for a morb composition in a P–T range, 450–650 °C and 18–28 kbar: the stability of eclogite

Lower temperature eclogite (with T = 600 °C) represents a significant part of the occurrences of eclogite in orogenic belts. ‘True’ eclogite, with, for example, garnet + omphacite >70%, is well represented in such an occurrence. Calculated phase equilibria in Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–O (NCKFMASHTO), for just one rock composition – that of a representative mid‐ocean ridge basalt, morb – are used to see under what circumstances ‘true’ eclogite is predicted to occur. The variables considered are not only pressure (P) and temperature (T) but also water content and oxidation state. The latter two variables are known to exert a significant control on mineral assemblage but are difficult to establish retrospectively from the observed rocks themselves. It is found that whereas oxidation state does have a strong effect on mineral assemblage, the key control on developing ‘true’ eclogite is shown to be temperature and water content. If temperature is established to be <600 °C, water content has to be low (less or much less than that for H₂O saturation) in order for ‘true’ eclogite to form. Moreover, unless pressure is at the high end in the range considered, lawsonite eclogite and ‘true’ eclogite will tend to be mutually exclusive, with the former requiring high water content at the lower temperature where it occurs, but the latter requiring low water content.     

Spheroidal dolomites – origin by hydrocarbon seepage?

Spheroidal dolomite cements are a pervasive and distinctive feature in five exposed lithologies of different geological age in Kuwait. The spheroids range in diameter from ～5–350 μm, have concentric zones and nuclei of fluid inclusions with or without a radial fabric, and compositions varying from near stoichiometric to Ca₅₆ Mg₄₄. All spheroids appear to be primary in origin with no evidence of replacement. Some concentric zones show selective calcitization and/or leaching. Most of these features are confined to within 30 m of the surface. Consequently, spheroidal dolomites recognizable at depth in ancient sequences may be indicative of a local unconformity. The dolomite distributions are areally correlative with known areas of hydrocarbon seepage, the latter being confined to prominent oil field anticlinal trends. It is proposed that the dolomitization was caused by groundwaters carrying hydrocarbons to the surface, which were then oxidized to carbon dioxide. The gas bubbles may have acted as nuclei for spheroid growth with a possible inducement by bacteria which have an affinity for hydrocarbons. The implication is that the regional distribution of spheroidal dolomites may be an indicator of a potential reservoir facies at depth.