Application of the sequential t-test algorithm for analysing regime shifts to the southern Benguela ecosystem

Long-term ecosystem changes, such as regime shifts, have occurred in several marine ecosystems world-wide. Multivariate statistical methods have been used to detect such changes. A new method known as the sequential t-test algorithm for analysing regime shifts (STARS) is applied to a set of biological state variables as well as environmental and anthropogenic forcing variables in the southern Benguela. The method is able to correct for auto-correlation within time-series by a process known as prewhitening. All variables were tested with and without prewhitening. Shifts that were detected with both methods were termed robust. The STARS method detected shifts in relatively short time-series and identified when these shifts occurred without a priori hypotheses. Shifts were generally well detected at the end of time-series, but further development of the method is needed to enhance its performance for auto-correlated time-series. Since 1950, two major long-term ecosystem changes were identified for the southern Benguela. The first change occurred during the 1960s, caused predominantly by heavy fishing pressure but with some environmental forcing. The second change occurred in the early 2000s, caused mainly by environmental forcing. To strengthen these findings, further analyses should be carried out using different methods.     

Decadal changes in fish assemblages in waters near the Ieodo ocean research station (East China Sea) in relation to climate change from 1984 to 2010

We compiled and analyzed past time-series data to evaluate changes in oceanographic conditions and marine ecosystems near the Ieodo ocean research station (IORS) in the East China Sea (N 31°15??C33°45??, E 124°15??C127°45??) in relation to longterm changes in climate and global warming. The environment data we used was a depth-specific time-series of temperature and salinity for the water columns at 175 fixed stations along 22 oceanographic lines in Korean waters, based on bimonthly measurements since 1961 taken by the National Fisheries Research & Development Institute. As an indicator for the ecosystem status of the waters off Ieodo, we analyzed species composition in biomass of fishes caught by Korean fishing vessels in the waters near the IORS (1984?C2010) and summarized the data in relation to the environmental changes using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). To detect step changes in the time-series of environmental factors, we applied a sequential t-test analysis of regime shift. Correspondence analysis detected a major shift in fish assemblage structure between 1990 and 1993: the dominant species was filefish during 1981?C1992, but chub mackerel during 1992?C2007. This shift in fish assemblage structure seemed to be related to the well-established 1989 regime shift in the North Pacific, which was confirmed again with respect to temperature in the Yellow Sea and the Korea Strait (but not in the waters off the IORS). In overall from 1984 to 2010, salinity was more important than water temperature in CCA, implying that the fluctuation of the Tsushima warm current is a most important force driving the long-term changes in fish assemblage structure in the waters off the IORS. Further multidisciplinary researches are required to identify oceanographic and biological processes that link climate-driven physical changes to fish recruitment and habitat range fluctuations.     

The structure of ocean-surface currents measured by Doppler radar

The spatial structure of surface currents collected using a Doppler Radar system off the Florida Keys has been investigated. Surface current vectors were acquired within a rectilinear grid containing 700 nodes, where each node was spaced 1 km apart. Principal component analyses indicate that at least 63% of the variance of the surface currents at the 700 nodal locations can be accounted for by only three principal components. The principal modes of circulation during two separate experiments were extracted and found to be basically the same, although the first two modes were reversed between the two experiments. Coherence spectra were determined for nodal spacings between 1.76 km and 10.48 km, and the results of these analyses indicate that over most of the experimental area, approximately 60% of the variance is coherent over separations of 10.48 km. Application of a synoptic time-series model indicates that accurate prediction of the mean currents over each of the 65-h subrecord lengths was the dominant factor in controlling model performance, and that on the order of 10% error could be expected in using the time-series model to predict the low-frequency fluctuations. This indicates that time-series modeling of surface currents may be feasible and useful in estimating the long-term mixing characteristics of contaminants transported in the surface layer     

Revised estimates of abundance of South African sardine and anchovy from acoustic surveys adjusting for echosounder saturation in earlier surveys and attenuation effects for sardine

Hydro-acoustic surveys have been used to provide annual estimates of May recruitment and November spawner biomass of the South African sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus resources since 1984. These time-series of abundance estimates form the backbone of the assessment of these resources, and consequently the management of the South African sardine and anchovy is critically dependent on them. Upgrades to survey equipment over time have resulted in recent surveys providing more accurate estimates of abundance, yet in order to maintain comparability across the full time-series, estimates of biomass mimicking the old equipment were used for a number of years. In this paper we develop a method to revise the earlier part of the time-series to correct for receiver saturation in the older generation SIMRAD EK400 and EKS-38 echo sounders and to account for attenuation in dense sardine schools. This is applied to provide a revised time-series of biomass estimates for the South African sardine and anchovy resources with associated variance–covariance matrices. Furthermore, the time-series presented here are based on updated acoustic target strength estimates, making this the most reliable time-series currently available for both resources.     

The Role of GNSS Vertical Velocities to Correct Estimates of Sea Level Rise from Tide Gauge Measurements in Greece

In this study, we show how the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-derived vertical velocities contribute to the correction of tide gauge (TG) measurements used for the sea level rise estimation in Greece. Twelve sites with records of local sea level heights are processed in order to estimate their trend. Certain error sources related to TGs, e.g. equipment changes, data noise, may lead to biased or erroneous estimations of the sea level height. Therefore, it would be preferred to follow a robust estimation technique in order to detect and reduce outlier effects. The geocentric sea level rise is estimated by taking into account the land vertical motion of co-located GNSS permanent stations at the Hellenic area. TGs measure the height of the water relative to a monitored geodetic benchmark on land. On the other hand, using GNSS-based methods the vertical land motion can be derived. By means of extended models fitted to the GNSS time-series position, obtained from seven years of continuous data analysis, periodic signals are well described. The synergy of the two co-located techniques results in the correction of TG relative sea level heights taking into account the GNSS vertical velocities and consequently obtaining the conversion to absolute (geocentric) sea level trend.     

Long-term variations in macrobenthic community diversity (species number) in the Chokchon macrotidal flat,Incheon, Korea

We performed a time-series analysis of environmental variables and biological parameters to understand temporal variations in the macrobenthic community in the Chokchon macrotidal flats, Incheon, Korea. Bimonthly sampling of macrobenthos and sediments was conducted from May 1989 through November 2001. A decomposition method composed of seasonality, trends and cyclical variation was employed in this study. We focused on trends of the selected variables and assumed that those with positive or negative trends caused changes in biological parameters. Most variables showed strong seasonality (≥ 95% of the total variance). Significant positive trends (p < 0.0001) were observed in sea water temperature and sediment ignition loss. Macrobenthic biomass and species number also showed significant positive trends (p < 0.0001). Biomass indicated that the study area underwent eutrophication since the mid 1990s. A notable increase in species number occurred throughout the study period. The flattened temperature trend after 1994 and intensified eutrophication after the mid 1990s indicated that the species increase in the former period was in response to increasing temperature, while that in the latter period was caused by eutrophication. Although our study suggested an increasing trend in diversity, it is important to check for unexpected changes and establish monitoring programs to provide early warnings, especially in lower latitudes.     

Using mangroves as a geological indicator of coastal changes in the Bragança macrotidal flat,Brazilian Amazon: A remote sensing data approach

A mangrove ecosystem shows close links between geomorphology and vegetation assemblage. In addition, the vegetation can change over time as landforms can accrete or erode, which is a direct response to coastal sedimentary processes. This demonstrates that significant changes can occur on short time scales and mangroves provide an excellent register of these modifications. Therefore, mangrove morphology and sedimentation are good indicators of interactions between relative sea level changes, coastal processes and sediment supply. These interactions are responsible for landward migration of the shoreline (erosion) and seaward migration of the shoreline (accretion), which is possible to detect from multi-date satellite data and field observations. Mangroves are one of the best geo-indicators in global coastal change research and they are an excellent procedure to detect and quantify coastal modifications.     

Relationships between water-column stratification,phytoplankton cell size and copepod fecundity in Long Island Sound and off central Chile

Changes in phytoplankton abundance and size brought on by changes in water-column stratification are shown to affect copepod fecundity. The response of copepods to changes in their food environment, as manifested by changes in rates of egg production, is compared for two different time-scales: seasonal-to-weekly in Long Island Sound, New York, and event-scale-to-daily off the coast of central Chile. The data sets discussed include a time-series of hydrographic and chlorophyll samples along with measurements of copepod egg production (made using an incubation technique) carried out each week in Long Island Sound during 1985 and a 25-day time-series of daily measurements of the same variables at a fixed station in the nearshore coastal upwelling zone off Concepción, Chile, in January 1986. Egg production was often low, suggesting food-limitation. Temporal variations in the fecundity of the copepods Temora longicornis and Acarlia tonsa in Long Island Sound did not follow changes in total phytoplankton biomass, but rather changes in the concentration of chlorophyll in the > 10 μm and > 20 μm size fractions. Off Chile, changes in fecundity of Calanus chilensis mirrored changes in both total phytoplankton biomass and the > 20 μm size fraction. This fact demonstrates that herbivorous copepods follow closely changes in their food environment and suggests that there is a close coupling between food quality of phytoplankton (in terms of particle size), ingestion and egg production by adult females.     

Towards adaptive approaches to management of the South African Abalone Haliotis Midae Fishery

The South African abalone Haliotis midae resource is widely perceived as being under threat of over-exploitation as a result of increased poaching. In this paper, reservations are expressed about using catch per unit effort as the sole index of abundance when assessing this fishery, particularly because of the highly aggregatory behaviour of the species. A fishery-independent survey has been initiated and is designed to provide relative indices of abundance with CVs of about 25% in most of the zones for which Total Allowable Catchs (TACs) are set annually for this fishery. However, it will take several years before this relative index matures to a time-series long enough to provide a usable basis for management. Through a series of simple simulation models, it is shown that calibration of the survey to provide values of biomass in absolute terms would greatly enhance the value of the dataset. The models show that, if sufficient precision (CV 50% or less) could bc achieved in such a calibration exercise, the potential for management benefit is improved substantially, even when using a relatively simple management procedure to set TACs. This improvement results from an enhanced ability to detect resource declines or increases at an early stage, as well as from decreasing the time period until the survey index becomes useful. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that basic modelling techniques could usefully indicate which forms of adaptive management experiments would improve ability to manage the resource, mainly through estimation of the level of precision that would be required from those experiments. The results of this study are particularly applicable to fishing zones for which there are insufficient other data to perform a standard stock assessment.     

Assessing Trends in Nutrient Concentrations in Coastal Shelf Seas: a Case Study in the Irish Sea

Single point time-series data collected in the Irish Sea since 1954 by Allen et al. (1998) have been re-evaluated using more recent data and areal winter surveys of the Celtic and Irish Seas. Survey data illustrate the heterogeneity of nutrient distributions with N (≈28 μM) and P (2·0 μM) enrichment of the eastern Irish Sea relative to the western Irish Sea (7–8 μM N and 0·7 μM P). Salinity nutrient relationships demonstrate distinct regional differences throughout the two seas. Trends in the Isle of Man time-series are unlikely to have resulted from changes in analytical procedures and personnel. Concerns over data quality cannot be resolved and there are no independent data to validate the time-series. Including more recent data shows P has declined since the late 1980s and N concentrations have remained stable since the mid 1970s. The absence of a Si trend is consistent with limited anthropogenic influence on riverine Si concentrations. Trends in N and P are consistent with changes in riverine concentrations of these two nutrients and the biogeochemical processes controlling their cycling in shelf waters. Denitrification is the most likely reason for offshore Irish Sea concentrations of N being lower than expected.     

Autoregressive Process Order Selection via Model-Critical Methods

The selection of the order of an autoregressive process is examined via model-critical methods that allow for constructive criticism of the data and the (tentative) model, considered jointly as a single entity. These methods yield robust estimates of the model parameters and the innovations variance, which is used in the order-selection procedure which reduces as a special case to the modified Akaike-type procedure of Hannan and Quinn. The proposed procedure selects as the order of an autoregressive process the value ofpthat minimizes an information criterion PSIC(p, c) (which is a function of the model-critical parameter (c) which governs the extent to which data and model are to be internally consistent) the model-critical estimate of the innovations variance, and the sample size. In the presence of additive outliers in the data, the model-critical procedure is superior to the Akaike and Hannan-Quinn procedures, and the superiority increases with increasing levels of contamination.     

Toward a standard line for use in multibeam echo sounder calibration

A procedure is suggested in which a relative calibration for the intensity output of a multibeam echo sounder (MBES) can be performed. This procedure identifies a common survey line (i.e., a standard line), over which acoustic backscatter from the seafloor is collected with multiple MBES systems or by the same system multiple times. A location on the standard line which exhibits temporal stability in its seafloor backscatter response is used to bring the intensity output of the multiple MBES systems to a common reference. This relative calibration procedure has utility for MBES users wishing to generate an aggregate seafloor backscatter mosaic using multiple systems, revisiting an area to detect changes in substrate type, and comparing substrate types in the same general area but with different systems or different system settings. The calibration procedure is demonstrated using three different MBES systems over 3 different years in New Castle, NH, USA.     

Comparison of carbon cycle between the western Pacific subarctic and subtropical time-series stations: highlights of the K2S1 project

A comparative study of ecosystems and biogeochemistry at time-series stations in the subarctic gyre (K2) and subtropical region (S1) of the western North Pacific Ocean (K2S1 project) was conducted between 2010 and 2013 to collect essential data about the ecosystem and biological pump in each area and to provide a baseline of information for predicting changes in biologically mediated material cycles in the future. From seasonal chemical and biological observations, general oceanographic settings were verified and annual carbon budgets at both stations were determined. Annual mean of phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity at the oligotrophic station S1 were comparable to that at the eutrophic station K2. Based on chemical/physical observations and numerical simulations, the likely “missing nutrient source” was suggested to include regeneration, meso-scale eddy driven upwelling, meteorological events, and eolian inputs in addition to winter vertical mixing. Time-series observation of carbonate chemistry revealed that ocean acidification (OA) was ongoing at both stations, and that the rate of OA was faster at S1 than at K2 although OA at K2 is more critical for calcifying organisms.     

Spatial patterns,rates and mechanisms of saltmarsh cycles (Westerschelde,The Netherlands)

Saltmarsh development was studied in a spatial context, in order to understand the mechanisms involved in saltmarsh cycles. A 30-y time-series of very high resolution false colour aerial photographs was studied for eight saltmarsh sites in the Westerschelde estuary (southwest Netherlands). Detailed maps of vegetation cover were produced for each year, based on a supervised classification, and changes in vegetation cover were analysed in a geographical information system.     

A probabilistic method for constructing wave time-series at inshore locations using model scenarios

Continuous time-series of wave characteristics (height, period, and direction) are constructed using a base set of model scenarios and simple probabilistic methods. This approach utilizes an archive of computationally intensive, highly spatially resolved numerical wave model output to develop time-series of historical or future wave conditions without performing additional, continuous numerical simulations. The archive of model output contains wave simulations from a set of model scenarios derived from an offshore wave climatology. Time-series of wave height, period, direction, and associated uncertainties are constructed at locations included in the numerical model domain. The confidence limits are derived using statistical variability of oceanographic parameters contained in the wave model scenarios. The method was applied to a region in the northern Gulf of Mexico and assessed using wave observations at 12 m and 30 m water depths. Prediction skill for significant wave height is 0.58 and 0.67 at the 12 m and 30 m locations, respectively, with similar performance for wave period and direction. The skill of this simplified, probabilistic time-series construction method is comparable to existing large-scale, high-fidelity operational wave models but provides higher spatial resolution output at low computational expense. The constructed time-series can be developed to support a variety of applications including climate studies and other situations where a comprehensive survey of wave impacts on the coastal area is of interest.     

“中科2号”海湾扇贝(Argopecten irradians)幼虫期壳长遗传力的估计

基于全同胞组内相关法估计"中科2号"海湾扇贝(Argopecten irradians)幼虫期壳长的遗传力。通过平衡巢式交配实验设计构建了7个半同胞和21个全同胞"中科2号"海湾扇贝家系。在家系幼虫期的第1天和第6天分别测定每个全同胞家系的30个幼虫个体的壳长。利用SAS 9.0软件的一般线性模型(GLM)计算表型变量的原因方差组分,估算壳长遗传力。分析结果显示,"中科2号"海湾扇贝幼虫1日龄和6日龄壳长的遗传力分别为0.51和0.58。t检验显示两个日龄壳长遗传力的估计值均不显著(P0.05),且6日龄雌性遗传方差组分大于雄性遗传方差组分,说明雌性遗传方差组分随日龄增长可能存在较大母性效应。较大的加性遗传方差表明选择育种对于"中科2号"海湾扇贝的早期生长尚具有较大的改良潜力。     

Open-ocean deployment of a buoy-mounted aerosol sampler on the Bermuda Testbed Mooring: Aerosol iron and sea salt over the Sargasso Sea

We report results from the first deployment of a buoy-mounted aerosol sampler on the Bermuda Testbed Mooring (BTM) in the Sargasso Sea, in which a time-series of 21 aerosol samples were collected over the period May 5–September 29, 2004. These aerosol samples were analyzed for iron and soluble sodium (as a proxy for sea salt). Also analyzed was a time-series of 22 aerosol samples collected over the same period at the Tudor Hill atmospheric sampling tower on Bermuda. The buoy sampler worked as intended and successfully collected a time-series of aerosol samples, thus demonstrating that moored buoys can be used as oceanic observatories to provide information on the temporal (weekly, monthly and seasonal) variability in the concentration of aerosol iron (and other trace elements) over the surface ocean. The magnitude and time variation of aerosol Fe concentrations calculated from the BTM buoy samples are in close agreement with the corresponding aerosol Fe record from the Tudor Hill tower, which is located approximately 80 km northwest of the mooring site. Both the BTM and Tudor Hill samples record periods of high aerosol iron loadings in late June and late July 2004, reflecting the transport of soil dust from North Africa, with the highest concentration of aerosol iron at the BTM site (0.83 μg m⁻³) measured in late June. Concentrations of sea-salt aerosol calculated from the BTM samples are comparable to values measured over the Sargasso Sea and for samples collected at the Tudor Hill tower. Sea-salt aerosols do not appear to impede the collection of mineral aerosols by the buoy-mounted sampler.     

The influence of local winds and the southern North Sea on the level of the River Thames

Subtidal changes of the level of the River Thames are examined over the period September–October 1973. Almost 98% of the total subtidal variance can be accounted for by a spatial mode describing uniform changes of level at all tide gauges. This mode is due to changes of the level of the southern North Sea into which the River Thames flows. The remaining 2% of total variance can be almost completely described by a tilting of level. This tilting is partly due to a delay in the response of the river to elevation changes at the mouth and partly to the effect of local wind. The effect of local wind could cause the level at Greenwich to differ from that at Southend by as much as 35 cm.     

Primary production export flux in Marguerite Bay (Antarctic Peninsula): Linking upper water-column production to sediment trap flux

A study was carried out to assess primary production and associated export flux in the coastal waters of the western Antarctic Peninsula at an oceanographic time-series site. New, i.e., exportable, primary production in the upper water-column was estimated in two ways; by nutrient deficit measurements, and by primary production rate measurements using separate ¹⁴C-labelled radioisotope and ¹⁵N-labelled stable isotope uptake incubations. The resulting average annual exportable primary production estimates at the time-series site from nutrient deficit and primary production rates were 13 and 16 mol C m⁻², respectively. Regenerated primary production was measured using ¹⁵N-labelled ammonium and urea uptake, and was low throughout the sampling period.The exportable primary production measurements were compared with sediment trap flux measurements from 2 locations; the time-series site and at a site 40 km away in deeper water. Results showed ∼1% of the upper mixed layer exportable primary production was exported to traps at 200 m depth at the time-series site (total water column depth 520 m). The maximum particle flux rate to sediment traps at the deeper offshore site (total water column depth 820 m) was lower than the flux at the coastal time-series site. Flux of particulate organic carbon was similar throughout the spring–summer high flux period for both sites. Remineralisation of particulate organic matter predominantly occurred in the upper water-column (<200 m depth), with minimal remineralisation below 200 m, at both sites. This highly productive region on the Western Antarctic Peninsula is therefore best characterised as ‘high recycling, low export’.     

Seasonal changes in the mesozooplankton biomass and community structure in subarctic and subtropical time-series stations in the western North Pacific

Seasonal changes in mesozooplankton biomass and their community structures were observed at time-series stations K2 (subarctic) and S1 (subtropical) in the western North Pacific Ocean. At K2, the maximum biomass was observed during the spring when primary productivity was still low. The annual mean biomasses in the euphotic and 200- to 1000-m layers were 1.39 (day) and 2.49 (night) g C m^?2 and 4.00 (day) and 3.63 (night) g C m^?2, respectively. Mesozooplankton vertical distribution was bimodal and mesopelagic peak was observed in a 200- to 300-m layer; it mainly comprised dormant copepods. Copepods predominated in most sampling layers, but euphausiids were dominant at the surface during the night. At S1, the maximum biomass was observed during the spring and the peak timing of biomass followed those of chlorophyll a and primary productivity. The annual mean biomasses in the euphotic and 200- to 1000-m layers were 0.10 (day) and 0.21 (night) g C m^?2 and 0.47 (day) and 0.26 (night) g C m^?2, respectively. Copepods were dominant in most sampling layers, but their mean proportion was lower than that in K2. Mesozooplankton community characteristics at both sites were compared with those at other time-series stations in the North Pacific and with each other. The annual mean primary productivities and sinking POC fluxes were equivalent at both sites; however, mesozooplankton biomasses were higher at K2 than at S1. The difference of biomasses was probably caused by differences of individual carbon losses, population turnover rates, and trophic structures of communities between the two sites.