A review of the climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf hurricanes for wind, wave, and surge hazard estimation

The climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are presented, focusing on the basic parameters needed for accurately determining the structure and intensity of hurricanes for ocean response models. These include the maximum sustained wind, radius of maximum winds, the Holland-B parameter, the peripheral or far-field pressure, the surface roughness and coefficient of drag, and the central pressure for historical hurricanes in the Gulf.Despite evidence of a slight increase in the annual number of named storms over the past 50 years, presently there is no statistically significant trend in tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the long-term variability of tropical cyclones in the Gulf reflects the observed variability in the Atlantic basin as a whole. Analyses of hurricane winds from multiple sources suggest the presence of a bias toward overestimating the strength of winds in the HURDAT dataset from 7% to 15%. Results presented comparing HURDAT with other sources also show an overestimation of intensity at landfall, with an estimated bias of ~10%.Finally, a review of recent studies has shown that hurricane frequencies and intensities appear to vary on a much more localized scale than previously believed. This exacerbates the sampling problem for accurate characterization of hurricane parameters for design and operational applications.     

Analysis of the coastal Mississippi storm surge hazard

Following the extreme flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) commissioned a study to update the Mississippi coastal flood hazard maps. The project included development and application of new methods incorporating the most recent advances in numerical modeling of storms and coastal hydrodynamics, analysis of the storm climatology, and flood hazard evaluation. This paper discusses the methods that were used and how they were applied to the coast of the State of Mississippi.     

Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.     

Efficient joint-probability methods for hurricane surge frequency analysis

The Joint-Probability Method (JPM) was adopted by federal agencies for critical post-Katrina determinations of hurricane surge frequencies. In standard JPM implementations, it is necessary to consider a very large number of combinations of storm parameters, and each such combination (or synthetic storm) requires the simulation of wind, waves, and surge. The tools used to model the wave and surge phenomena have improved greatly in recent years, but this improvement and the use of very large high-resolution grids have made the computations both time-consuming and expensive. In order to ease the computational burden, two independent approaches have been developed to reduce the number of storm surge simulations that are required. Both of these so-called JPM-OS (JPM-Optimal Sampling) methods seek to accurately cover the entire storm parameter space through optimum selection of a small number of parameter values so as to minimize the number of required storm simulations. Tests done for the Mississippi coast showed that the accuracy of the two methods is comparable to that of a full JPM analysis, with a reduction of an order of magnitude or more in the computational effort.     

Development of storm surge which led to flooding in St. Bernard Polder during Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina caused devastating flooding in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. Storm surge surrounded the polder that comprises heavily populated sections of the Parish in addition to the Lower 9th Ward section of Orleans Parish. Surge propagated along several pathways to reach levees and walls around the polder's periphery. Extreme water levels led to breaches in the levee/wall system which, along with wave overtopping and steady overflow, led to considerable flood water entering the polder. Generation and evolution of the storm surge as it propagated into the region is examined using results from the SL15 regional application of the ADCIRC storm surge model. Fluxes of water into the region through navigation channels are compared to fluxes which entered through Lake Borgne and over inundated wetlands surrounding the lake. Fluxes through Lake Borgne and adjacent wetlands were found to be the predominant source of water reaching the region. Various sources of flood water along the polder periphery are examined. Flood water primarily entered through the east and west sides of the polder. Different peak surges and hydrograph shapes were experienced along the polder boundaries, and reasons for the spatial variability in surge conditions are discussed.     

Reconstruction of Hurricane Katrina's wind fields for storm surge and wave hindcasting

As the most costly US natural disaster in history, Hurricane Katrina fostered the IPET forensic study to better understand the event. All available observations from several hundred space-, land-, sea-, and aircraft-based measurement platforms were gathered and processed to a common framework for height, exposure, and averaging time, to produce a series of wind field snapshots at 3 h intervals to depict the wind structure of Katrina when in the Gulf of Mexico. The stepped-frequency microwave radiometer was calibrated against GPS sondes to establish the upper range of the instrument and then used to determine the wind field in the storm's core region in concert with airborne Doppler radar winds adjusted to the surface from near the top of the PBL (500 m). The SFMR data were used to develop a method to estimate surface winds from 3 km level reconnaissance aircraft observations, taking into consideration the observed azimuthal variation of the reduction factor. The “SFMR method” was used to adjust reconnaissance flight-level measurements to the surface in the core region when SFMR and Doppler winds were not available. A variety of coastal and inland mesonet data were employed, including portable towers deployed by Texas Tech University, University of Louisiana at Monroe, and the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program, as well as fixed mesonet stations from Louisiana State Universities Marine Consortium, University of Southern Mississippi, and Agricultural Networks from Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and the Coastal Estuarine Network of Alabama and Mississippi. Also included were land- (WSR-88D VAD and GBVTD, ASOS, Metar, LLWAS, HANDAR), space- (QuikScat, GOES cloud drift winds, WindSat), and marine- (GPS sondes, Buoys, C-MAN, ships) platforms. The wind fields serve as an analysis of record and were used to provide forcing for wave and storm surge models to produce hindcasts of water levels in the vicinity of flood control structures.     

Long-term regional hurricane hazard analysis for wind and storm surge

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the long-term regional hurricane wind and storm surge hazard. The output is a relatively small set of hurricane scenarios that together represent the regional hazard. For each scenario, the method produces a hazard-consistent annual occurrence probability, and wind speeds and surge levels throughout the study area. These scenarios can be used for subsequent evacuation or loss estimation modeling. This optimization-based probabilistic scenario (OPS) method involves first simulating tens of thousands of candidate hurricane scenarios with wind speeds and approximate surge depths. A mixed-integer linear optimization is then used to select a subset of scenarios and assign hazard-consistent annual occurrence probabilities to each. Finally, a surge model is used to estimate accurate surge depths for the reduced set of events. The method considers the correlation between winds and surge depths and the spatial correlations of each; it is computationally efficient; and it makes explicit the tradeoff between the number of scenarios selected and the errors introduced by using a reduced set of events. A case study for Eastern North Carolina is presented in which a final set of 97 hurricanes provides unbiased results with errors small enough for many practical uses.     

The potential of wetlands in reducing storm surge

A critical component of flood protection in some coastal areas is expected to be the potential contribution of wetlands to the lowering of surges as they propagate inland from the coast. Consequently, an accurate method to quantify the effect of wetlands on coastal surge levels is required. The degree to which wetlands attenuate surge is the subject of debate and difficult to assess. The potential of wetlands to reduce storm surge has typically been expressed as a constant attenuation rate, but the relationship is much more complex. A numerical storm surge model was applied to assess the sensitivity of surge response to specified wetland loss. Results suggest that wetlands do have the potential to reduce surges but the magnitude of attenuation is dependent on the surrounding coastal landscape and the strength and duration of the storm forcing. Numerical models that simulate the relevant physical processes can provide valuable information on how to best integrate wetlands into coastal protection plans. However, while the model applied for this study has displayed skill in estimating surges over wetlands, the formulations are missing key processes and model advancements are necessary.     

可能最大风暴潮风险评估中各等级热带气旋设定方法

可能最大热带气旋的设定是可能最大风暴潮计算的基础,对风暴潮灾害应急疏散具有重要意义。利用1949~2011年中国气象局(CMA)西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集、美国联合台风预警中心(JTWC)以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)最大风速半径数据集,基于各等级热带气旋参数之间的定量关系,建立了各等级可能最大热带气旋最大风速、中心气压、最大风速半径、移动速度、移动方向等参数设定及路径合成的方法。以福建省连江县为例,按照台风、强台风及超强台风强度等级,分强度衰减和不衰减2种情况,设定3种移动方向,合成了共216场热带气旋作为可能最大风暴潮的计算输入。另外,对参数敏感性、风场参数设定、参数设定与计算量的关系、叠加天文潮以及溃堤等问题进行了讨论。     

Numerical modeling of wind waves generated by tropical cyclones using moving grids

A version of the WAVEWATCH III wave model featuring a continuously moving spatial grid is presented. The new model option/version is intended for research into wind waves generated by tropical cyclones in deep water away from the coast. The main advantage of such an approach is that the cyclones can be modeled with spatial grids that cover much smaller areas than conventional fixed grids, making model runs with high spatial resolution more economically feasible. The model modifications necessary are fairly trivial. Most complications occur due to the Garden Sprinkler effect (GSE) and methods used to mitigate it. The basic testing of the model is performed using idealized wind fields consisting of a Rankine vortex. The model is also applied to hurricane Lili in the Gulf of Mexico in October 2002. The latter application shows that the moving grid approach provides a natural way to deal with hurricane wind fields that have a high-resolution in space, but a low resolution in time. Although the new model version is originally intended for tropical cyclones, it is suitable for high-resolution modeling of waves due to any moving weather pattern.     

Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run.     

新奥尔良防洪工程体系破坏原因分析与研究

通过飓风卡特里娜对新奥尔良防洪工程体系破坏情况的回顾并分析其破坏原因,结合其它海堤的建设情况,总结防洪工程体系建设经验教训。认为防洪工程建设应有系统工程的观念,并基于风险分析进行设计;筑堤土料尽量采用抗冲能力强的粘土或采用抗冲性能差的土料时应有相应的防护措施;注意堤防的防护设计,特别是生物措施的利用;强调应重视工程地质参数的正确选取。     

热带气旋进入北部湾后强度突变的天气气候特征分析

本文按近海热带气旋强度突变的标准，对１９７０～１９９０年进入北部湾后强度发生突变的热带气旋进行分类统计，发现有如下的气候特征：每年平均有３２个热带气旋进入北部湾，其中强度变化不大的占总数的５２％；强度突然减弱的占总数的４２％；强度突然增强的占总数的６％。强度变化不大和强度突然减弱的发生在５～１１月，强度突然增强的发生在８～９月。本文对进入北部湾的热带气旋强度增强的天气类型进行分类，归纳起来分为四种天气类型：副热带高压型；赤道辐合带型；季风低槽型和锋面低槽型，这些结果将对天气预报有很大的帮助     

天津近岸台风暴潮漫滩数值模式研究

基于对POM(Princeton Ocean Model)模式的改进,采用Flather-Heaps干湿网格法和两重网格嵌套的数值计算格式,针对天津近岸海域的地形和易受风暴潮漫滩灾害侵袭的特点,建立了天津近岸海域三维动边界风暴潮漫滩模型,对天津近岸区域台风影响下的风暴潮漫滩进行了数值模拟研究。选取7203,8509,9216,9711号典型台风过程,计算了风暴潮漫滩水位变化,通过与塘沽站点实测数据的比较,计算的增水曲线过程与实测结果吻合较好,基本能够真实反映天津近岸的风暴潮水位变化情况及漫滩范围。研究结果验证了改进POM模式为动边界数值模型并应用于浅海区域是可行性的。     

A synchronously coupled tide–wave–surge model of the Yellow Sea

A coupled wave–tide–surge model has been established in this study in order to investigate the effect of tides, storm surges, and wind waves interactions during a winter monsoon on November 1983 in the Yellow Sea. The coupled model is based on the synchronous dynamic coupling of a third-generation wave model, WAM-Cycle 4, and the two-dimensional tide–surge model. The surface stress generated by interactions between wind and waves is calculated using the WAM-Cycle 4 directly based on an analytical approximation of the results obtained from the quasi-linear theory of wave generation. The changes of bottom friction factor generated by waves and current interactions are calculated by using simplified bottom boundary layer model. The model simulations showed that bottom velocity and effective bottom drag coefficient induced by combination of wave and current were increased in shallow waters of up to 50 m in the Yellow Sea during the wintertime strong storm conditions.     

A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.     

Numerical Simulation of Extreme Sea Levels for the Tamil Nadu (India) and Sri Lankan Coasts

Numerical modeling of extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones in the Indian seas has been confined to the northern part of the Bay of Bengal (north of Tamil Nadu). However, limited attempts have been made for modeling of surges along the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lankan coasts. Although, very rarely, cyclones form south of 10°N, there are some instances of severe cyclonic storms hitting these areas and causing widespread destruction to life and property. Keeping this in view, a suitable location-specific, high-resolution, numerical model has been developed for the prediction of storm surges in these regions with a grid resolution of 3 km. Using the model, numerical experiments are performed to simulate the storm surge associated with the 1964 Rameswaram cyclone, the 1978 Batticaloa cyclone, the 1992 Tuticorin cyclone, the 1993 Karaikal cyclone, and the 1994 Madras cyclone. During the years 1964, 1978, and 1992, the cyclones struck both Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coasts, while in 1993 and 1994, the cyclones struck only the Tamil Nadu coast. It is found that the computed sea surface elevations are in close agreement with the available observations/estimates.     

Numerical Simulation of Extreme Sea Levels for the Tamil Nadu (India) and Sri Lankan Coasts

Numerical modeling of extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones in the Indian seas has been confined to the northern part of the Bay of Bengal (north of Tamil Nadu). However, limited attempts have been made for modeling of surges along the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lankan coasts. Although, very rarely, cyclones form south of 10°N, there are some instances of severe cyclonic storms hitting these areas and causing widespread destruction to life and property. Keeping this in view, a suitable location-specific, high-resolution, numerical model has been developed for the prediction of storm surges in these regions with a grid resolution of 3 km. Using the model, numerical experiments are performed to simulate the storm surge associated with the 1964 Rameswaram cyclone, the 1978 Batticaloa cyclone, the 1992 Tuticorin cyclone, the 1993 Karaikal cyclone, and the 1994 Madras cyclone. During the years 1964, 1978, and 1992, the cyclones struck both Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coasts, while in 1993 and 1994, the cyclones struck only the Tamil Nadu coast. It is found that the computed sea surface elevations are in close agreement with the available observations/estimates.     

Modeling of tropical cyclone winds and waves for emergency management

This paper compares three commonly used parametric models of tropical cyclone winds and evaluates their application in the wave model WAM. The parametric models provide surface wind fields based on best tracks of tropical cyclones and WAM simulates wave growth based on the wind energy input. The model package is applied to hindcast the wind and wave conditions of Hurricane Iniki, which directly hit the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. The parametric wind fields are evaluated against buoy and aircraft measurements made during the storm. A sensitivity analysis determines the spatial and spectral resolution needed to model the wave field of Hurricane Iniki. Comparisons of the modeled waves with buoy measurements indicate good agreement within the core of the storm and demonstrate the capability of the model package as a forecasting tool for emergency management.     

厦门港潮汐、风暴潮耦合模型

建立一个适合台湾海峡及小港湾,特别是能够反映小港湾的漫滩及潮汐、风暴潮耦合效应的数值模型,对小港湾风暴潮进行数值预报,有重要的社会和经济意义.文中以厦门港作为小港湾研究区域,在漫滩、风暴潮的耦合、开边界条件等方面对小港湾风暴潮数值计算作了一定的尝试,提出了一种能够模拟小港湾台风增水,潮位和流场变化情况的途径.