Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.     

基于海气耦合模型的渤海两种类型风暴潮数值模拟与对比分析

渤海一年四季都易受到由温带风暴和热带气旋所致风暴潮的影响。为了缓解风暴潮灾害对海岸地区人员生命财产的影响,十分有必要了解大型风暴潮的发生过程和机制。目前大部分研究主要局限于单一的温带风暴潮或台风风暴潮。本文利用所构建的海气耦合数值模型研究了发生于渤海的两种类型的风暴潮,对发生在渤海的2次典型强风暴潮过程进行了模拟。由WRF模型模拟得到的风场强度和最低海平面气压与实测数据吻合较好,由ROMS模型模拟得到的风暴潮期间水位变化过程与潮位站观测结果也吻合较好。对两种类型风暴潮期间的风场结钩、海面风应力、海洋表面平均流场以及水位分布进行了分析对比,并将耦合模型结果与非耦合模型结果进行了对比。研究表明,渤海两种类型风暴潮期间的风场结钩、海面风应力、海洋表面平均流场以及水位分布等均存在巨大差异。渤海风暴潮的强度主要由海洋表面的驱动力所决定,但同时也受海岸地形地貌的影响。     

Influence of discrete step size on wind setup component of storm surge

Open coast storm surge water levels consist of wind setup due to wind shear at the water surface; a wave setup component caused by wind induced waves transferring momentum to the water column; an atmospheric pressure head component due to the atmospheric pressure deficit over the spatial extent of the storm system; a Coriolis forced setup or setdown component due to the effects of the rotation of the earth acting on the wind driven alongshore current at the coast; a possible seiche component due to resonance effects initiated by moving wind system, and, if astronomical tides are present, an astronomical tide component (although the tide is typically considered to be a forced astronomical event and not really a direct part of the external wind-driven meteorological component of storm surge). Typically the most important component of a storm surge is the wind setup component, especially on the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico shorelines. In many approaches to storm surge modeling, a constant depth approximation is invoked over a limited step size in the computational domain. The use of a constant depth approximation has received little attention in the literature although can be very important to the resulting magnitude of the computed storm surge. The importance of discrete step size to the wind setup storm surge component is considered herein with a simple case computation of the wind setup component on a linear slope offshore profile. The present study findings show that the constant depth approximation to wind setup storm surge estimation is biased on the low side (except in extremely shallow water depths) and can provide large errors if discrete step size is not sufficiently resolved. Guidance has been provided on the error that one might encounter for various step sizes on different slopes.     

Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run.     

A numerical study on the impact of tidal waves on the storm surge in the north of Liaodong Bay

A storm surge is an abnormal sharp rise or fall in the seawater level produced by the strong wind and low pressure field of an approaching storm system.A storm tide is a water level rise or fall caused by the combined effect of the storm surge and an astronomical tide.The storm surge depends on many factors,such as the tracks of typhoon movement,the intensity of typhoon,the topography of sea area,the amplitude of tidal wave,the period during which the storm surge couples with the tidal wave.When coupling with different parts of a tidal wave,the storm surges caused by a typhoon vary widely.The variation of the storm surges is studied.An once-in-a-century storm surge was caused by Typhoon 7203 at Huludao Port in the north of the Liaodong Bay from July 26th to 27th,1972.The maximum storm surge is about 1.90 m.The wind field and pressure field used in numerical simulations in the research were derived from the historical data of the Typhoon 7203 from July 23rd to 28th,1972.DHI Mike21 is used as the software tools.The whole Bohai Sea is defined as the computational domain.The numerical simulation models are forced with sea levels at water boundaries,that is the tide along the Bohai Straits from July 18th to 29th（2012）.The tide wave and the storm tides caused by the wind field and pressure field mentioned above are calculated in the numerical simulations.The coupling processes of storm surges and tidal waves are simulated in the following way.The first simulation start date and time are 00：00 July 18th,2012; the second simulation start date and time are 03：00 July 18th,2012.There is a three-hour lag between the start date and time of the simulation and that of the former one,the last simulation start date and time are 00：00 July 25th,2012.All the simulations have a same duration of 5 days,which is same as the time length of typhoon data.With the first day and the second day simulation output,which is affected by the initial field,being ignored,only the 3rd to 5th day simulation results are used to study the rules of the storm surges in the north of the Liaodong Bay.In total,57 cases are calculated and analyzed,including the coupling effects between the storm surge and a tidal wave during different tidal durations and on different tidal levels.Based on the results of the 57 numerical examples,the following conclusions are obtained：For the same location,the maximum storm surges are determined by the primary vibration（the storm tide keeps rising quickly） duration and tidal duration.If the primary vibration duration is a part of the flood tidal duration,the maximum storm surge is lower（1.01,1.05 and 1.37 m at the Huludao Port,the Daling Estuary and the Liaohe Estuary respectively）.If the primary vibration duration is a part of the ebb tidal duration,the maximum storm surge is higher（1.92,2.05 and 2.80 m at the Huludao Port,the Daling Estuary and the Liaohe Estuary respectively）.In the mean time,the sea level restrains the growth of storm surges.The hour of the highest storm tide has a margin of error of plus or minus 80 min,comparing the high water hour of the astronomical tide,in the north of the Liaodong Bay.     

A numerical study of the effect of hurricane wind asymmetry on storm surge and inundation

The influence of the asymmetric structure of hurricane wind field on storm surge is studied with five types of numerical experiments using a three-dimensional storm surge model. The results from the case of Hurricane Floyd (1999) show that Floyd-induced peak surge would have been much higher had the region of maximum wind rotated 30–90° counterclockwise. The idealized cases (the hypothetical hurricanes) with a wind speed asymmetry of 20 m s^?1 show that the peak (negative) surge varied from 4.7 to 6.0 m (?5 to ?5.7 m) or equivalent to ?8.8% and 16.3% (2.8% and ?10.4%) differences as compared to the control experiment. The area of flooding varied from 3552 to 3660 km². The results from two other idealized cases of varying degree of wind speed asymmetry further show that with decreasing (increasing) asymmetry of wind fields, the variations of peak surge and peak negative surge caused by the rotation of wind fields decrease (increase) accordingly. The results suggest that in storm surge simulations forced by winds derived from balanced models, considerable uncertainty in storm surge and inundation can result from wind asymmetries. This is true even if all other storm parameters, including maximum wind speed, the radius of maximum winds (storm size), minimum central pressure, storm translation speed, drag coefficient, and model settings (domain size and resolution) are identical. Thus, when constructing ensemble and probabilistic storm surge forecasts, uncertainty in wind asymmetry should be considered in conjunction with variations in storm track, storm intensity and size.     

湛江港风暴增水特征分析

本文在统计1950－1997年影响湛江港的热带气旋的基础上，利用1953－1982年30年间湛江港发生的风暴增水的资料，对湛江港风暴增水的总体特征进行了分析，总结出湛江港风暴增水的特征在于季节分布的不均匀、大的正增水和高实测水位出现频繁、造成的风暴潮灾比较严重；通过两类典型风暴潮的详细分析，结果表明：湛江港的风暴增水与影响湛江的热带气旋密切相关，大的风暴增水主要由台风引起，湛江港的地理位置也是影响风暴增水的重要因子。     

厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统研究

为提高厦门防御台风风暴潮灾害风险的能力,辅助政府部门开展海洋防灾减灾工作,文章基于风暴潮数值模型开发厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统,并以1521号台风为例模拟其淹没风险。研究结果表明：风暴潮数值模型能较好地刻画影响厦门的台风风暴潮过程,满足风暴潮淹没风险分析需求;厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统采用按警戒潮位预警和按高程预警2种方法分析风暴潮淹没风险,可对影响程度不同的岸段采取不同的预警和防御措施;基于数值模型的风暴潮淹没范围与实地调查区域的淹没范围基本一致,可对未开展实地调查区域的淹没范围进行补充;今后须进一步完善厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统,同时建立厦门风暴潮风险评价体系。     

Neural network prediction of a storm surge

The occurrence of storm surge does not only destroy the resident's lives, but also cause the severe flooding in coastal areas. Therefore, accurate prediction of storm surge is an important task during the coming typhoon. Conventional numerical methods and experienced methods for storm surge prediction have been developed in the past, but it is still a complex ocean engineering problem which many factors, including the central pressure of typhoon, the speed of the typhoon, the heavy rainfall, coastal topography and local features influence the variation of storm surge. In fact, this problem is still a complex nonlinear relationship that can not solved efficiently by these two methods. Therefore, this paper presents an application of the neural network for forecasting the storm surge. The original data of Jiangjyun station in Taiwan will be used to test the performance of the present model. The results indicate that the neural network can be efficiently forecasted storm surge using the four input factors, including the wind velocity, wind direction, pressure and harmonic analysis tidal level.     

The hydrodynamic response of the York River estuary to Tropical Cyclone Isabel, 2003

Hurricane Isabel made landfall along the North Carolina coast on September 18, 2003 (UTC 17:00) and the storm surge exceeded 2.0 m in many areas of the Chesapeake Bay and in the York River estuary. River flooding occurred subsequently, and the peak river discharge reached 317 and 104 m³ s⁻¹ in the Pamunkey and Mattaponi rivers, respectively. The York River estuary experienced both storm surge and river flooding during the event and the estuary dynamics changed dramatically. This study investigates the hydrodynamics of the York River estuary in response to the storm surge and high river inflows. A three-dimensional model was used to investigate the changes of estuarine stratification, longitudinal circulation, salt flux mechanisms, and the recovery time required for the estuary to return to its naturally evolved condition without the storm. Results show that the salt flux was mainly caused by advection, which was induced by the barotropic gradient during the storm event. The net salt flux increased by a factor of 30 during the rise of the storm surge. However, the large amount of salt transported into the estuary was quickly transported out of the estuary as the barotropic gradient reversed during the descent of the storm surge. Subsequent high freshwater inflow influenced the estuarine circulation substantially. The estuary changed from a partially mixed estuary to a very stratified estuary for a prolonged period. The model results show that it will take about 4 months for the estuary to recover to its naturally evolved salinity distribution after the impacts of the storm surge and freshwater pulse.     

渤海局部海域风暴潮漫滩的数值模拟

在Johns变边界模型的基础上,提出了一种嵌套式变边界数值模型,应用于渤海风暴潮的数值计算。分别模拟得到了1964年和1969年两次渤海风暴潮黄河三角洲一带的最大淹水范围和水位过程曲线。模拟过程中考虑了天文潮与风暴潮的非线性耦合效应。模拟结果分别与实测值和固定边界模型的结果进行了比较,从而证实了变边界模型不仅能计算出最大淹水范围,而且得到的风暴潮水位值也更加符合实际。     

一次登陆湛江台风风暴潮数值预报

本文对2002年8月在湛江附近登陆的0214号强热带风暴(黄蜂)进行了风暴潮实时预报。根据中央气象台预报的热带气旋强度和位置,采用数值模式,在该热带气旋由北上加强到登陆减弱的整个过程中,进行了三次实时预报,分别为18日20时、19日08时和19日 17时。预报结果表明本数值模式具有良好的预报功能,并指出其风暴潮预报时效和精度在很大程度上取决于热带气旋气象预报的时效和精度。     

我国风暴潮灾害及防灾减灾战略

本文在分析了1949-1997的风暴潮及其重大灾害事件后指出，从上世纪九十年代以来，我国风暴潮灾害的经济损失已呈显著上升的趋势，减轻重大台风风暴潮灾害所造成的经济损失，已成为我国风暴潮减灾工作的当务之急。为此提出了减轻重大风暴潮灾害的战略要点：（1）充分利用一切媒体使人民具有预防重大风暴潮灾害的意识；（2）加强对重大风暴潮及其灾害的科研工作；（3）修订全国沿海岸段的防潮工程规划；（4）制订海洋减灾法规和有关规范；（5）建立风暴减灾保险的机制。     

Wave-tide-surge coupled simulation for typhoon Maemi

The main task of this study focuses on studying the effect of wave-current interaction on currents, storm surge and wind wave as well as effects of current induced wave refraction and current on waves by using numerical models which consider the bottom boundary layer and sea surface roughness parameter for shallow and smooth bed area around Korean Peninsula. The coupled system (unstructured-mesh SWAN wave and ADCIRC) run on the same unstructured mesh. This identical and homogeneous mesh allows the physics of wave-circulation interactions to be correctly resolved in both models. The unstructured mesh can be applied to a large domain allowing all energy from deep to shallow waters to be seamlessly followed. There is no nesting or overlapping of structured wave meshes, and no interpolation is required. In response to typhoon Maemi (2003), all model components were validated independently, and shown to provide a faithful representation of the system’s response to this storm. The waves and storm surge were allowed to develop on the continental shelf and interact with the complex nearshore environment. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for prediction of the typhoon surge. The result show that it is important to incorporate the wave-current interaction effect into coastal area in the wave-tide-surge coupled model. At the same time, it should consider effects of depth-induced wave breaking, wind field, currents and sea surface elevation in prediction of waves. Specially, we found that: (1) wave radiation stress enhanced the current and surge elevation otherwise wave enhanced nonlinear bottom boundary layer decreased that, (2) wind wave was significantly controlled by sea surface roughness thus we cautiously took the experimental expression. The resulting modeling system can be used for hindcasting (prediction) the wave-tide-surge coupled environments at complex coastline, shallow water and fine sediment area like areas around Korean Peninsula.     

Response of sediment dynamics in the York River Estuary,USA to tropical cyclone Isabel of 2003

Tropical Cyclone Isabel of 2003 generated large storm surge, strong waves, and subsequent river flooding in the York River Estuary, USA during its passage across the Chesapeake Bay region. A 3D model was used to investigate the changes of sediment concentration, sediment flux, and the recovery time of the York River Estuary to its naturally evolved condition without the storm. The results showed that two sediment concentration peaks appeared during the storm event. The first one was induced by the large upstream flow and waves during the storm surge rising period, and the later one was caused by the strong downstream flow during the descent of the storm surge. The advection, which was induced by the barotropic gradient, dominated the sediment flux during the storm event. The sediment fluxes increased by a factor of 100 during the rise and descent of the storm surge. A large amount of sediment that was transported into the estuary and eroded from the seabed during the rising of the storm surge was quickly transported out of the estuary during the descent of the storm surge. Waves played a key role in stirring the seabed and increasing the sediment concentration during the storm. Subsequent high freshwater inflow changed the sediment loading and hydrodynamics in the estuary, and thus, influenced the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) dynamics profoundly. The ETM moved downstream with the river flooding initially and returned upstream with the waning of river flooding and the re-establishment of gravitational circulation. The effect of river flooding on sediment concentration varied spatially and depended on the changes of ETM locations and vertical mixing. The model results suggest that a large amount of sediment was transported out of the estuary during the storm event and the subsequent river flooding had a larger impact on recovery time of the estuary.     

风暴潮淹没范围确定方法与应用——以台风“玛莉亚”风暴潮为例

确定风暴潮淹没范围是风暴潮灾害损失评估工作的核心内容。为提高海洋灾害调查水平,全面掌握灾害影响情况和制定灾害应对措施,文章梳理确定风暴潮淹没范围的主要方式,即遥感和现场调查;重点介绍现场调查手段的4种确定方法,即通过淹没痕迹、漂浮物聚集位置、植被变化和现场询问确定,并分别提出调查结果的可靠性判定方法;以2018年第8号台风"玛莉亚"造成的风暴潮淹没影响为实例,综合采用查找淹没痕迹、查找漂浮物聚集位置和现场询问3种方法,确定牙城镇风暴潮的淹没范围约为91.7万m2。研究结果表明:与采用遥感手段确定淹没范围相比,现场调查结果更具准确性和科学性,可适用于小规模淹没范围的确定,相关方法可行有效。     

Open-boundary conditions for open-coast hurricane storm surge

Harper, B.A. and Sobey, R.J., 1983. Open-boundary conditions for open-coast hurricane storm surge. Coastal Eng., 7: 41–60.The specification of realistic open-boundary conditions for the numerical simulation of hurricane (or tropical cyclone) storm surge is considered in the context of the very considerable spatial extent of the meteorological forcing. Existing practice is reviewed and an alternative approach, a Bathystrophic Storm Tide approximation to open-boundary water levels, is presented. Results from a series of numerical experiments demonstrate the advantages of this approach over existing methods.     

Appraisal of storm beach buffer width for cyclonic waves

The loss of beach sand from berm and dune due to high waves and surge is a universal phenomenon associated with sporadic storm activities. To protect the development in a coastal hazard zone, hard structures or coastal setback have been established in many countries around the world. In this paper, the requirement of a storm beach buffer, being a lesser extent landward comparing with the coastal setback to ensure the safety of infrastructures, is numerically assessed using the SBEACH model for three categories of wave conditions in terms of storm return period, median sand grain size, berm width, and design water level. Two of the key outputs from the numerical calculations, berm retreat and bar formation offshore, are then analysed, as well as beach profile change. After having performed a series of numerical studies on selected large wave tank (LWT) test results with monochromatic waves using SBEACH, we may conclude that: (1) Berm erosion increases and submerged bar develops further offshore as the storm return period increases for beach with a specific sand grain size, or as the sand grain reduces on a beach under the action of identical wave condition; (2) Higher storm waves yield a large bar to form quicker and subsequently cause wave breaking on the bar crest, which can reduce the wave energy and limit the extent of the eroding berm; (3) A larger buffer width is required for a beach comprising small sand grain, in order to effectively absorb storm wave energy; and (4) Empirical relationships can be tentatively proposed to estimate the storm beach buffer width, from the input of wave conditions and sediment grain size. These results would benefit a beach nourishment project for shore protection or design of a recreational beach.     

Numerical Investigation of High Tide Level Due to A Super Typhoon in A Coastal Region

A numerical model of the coupling between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province.The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons,including two super typhoons,that landed in the Province.In the model,the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models.The computational results,with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels,show that the model yields good simulations.Typhoon No.5612,the most intense to land in China since 1949,is taken as the typical super typhoon for the design of 5 typhoon routes,each landing at a different location along the coast.The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide.Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon,the change of tidal type,and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon.The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.     

热带气旋资料长度对风暴潮危险性评估结果的影响

热带气旋历史样本数不足一直困扰着风暴潮风险评估研究,本文基于西北太平洋62 a(1949-2010年)历史观测热带气旋事件集资料和用随机模拟方法构造的1000 a模拟热带气旋随机事件集,以福建省连江县为例,开展了资料长度对风暴潮灾害危险性评估结果的影响分析。文中用ADCIRC模型模拟了两种数据集强迫下的风暴潮增水,采用极值Ⅰ型分布法得到了典型重现期的风暴潮增水,经过对计算结果分析发现典型重现期的风暴潮增水计算结果与所用数据资料长度有着密切相关性,数据资料越长,结果越稳定。对于1000 a一遇的风暴潮增水值,使用500 a长度的资料已经趋于稳定,并接近用1000 a资料计算得到的结果。在进行风暴潮危险性评估时,相比用几十年尺度的热带气旋历史数据集,1000 a的热带气旋模拟数据集的计算结果更具实际意义。