Performance of “G-Pisa” ring laser gyro at the Virgo site

The ring laser gyroscope ??G-Pisa?? has been taking data inside the Virgo interferometer central area with the aim of performing high sensitivity measurements of rotations in the vertical as well as in the horizontal orientation. We discuss the main characteristics of the instrument, describing its mechanical design and presenting the measured sensitivity limit. By applying a simple effective model for the laser gyroscope, we show that the stability of the sensor above 10?s of integration time is mainly limited by backscattering effects. The horizontal rotation rate signal is also compared with the signals recorded by the Virgo environmental monitoring system and by a biaxial mechanical tiltmeter rigidly fixed on top of the gyrolaser mounting frame.     

Predicted ground motion after the L��Aquila 2009 earthquake (Italy, M w 6.3): input spectra for seismic microzoning

After the April 6th 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (M _w 6.3), where 306 people died and a further 60,000 were displaced, seismic microzoning investigations have been carried out for towns affected by a macroseismic intensity equal to or greater than 7 MCS. Based upon seismotectonic data, historical seismicity and strong motion records, we defined input spectra to be used in the numerical simulations of seismic microzoning in four key municipalities, including the town of L’Aquila. We adopted two main approaches: uniform hazard response spectra are obtained by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment introducing some time-dependency for individual faults on the study area; a deterministic design spectrum is computed from magnitude/distance pairs extracted by a stationary probabilistic analysis of historical intensities. The uniform hazard spectrum of the present Italian building code represents the third, less restrictive, response spectrum to be used for the numerical simulations in seismic microzoning. Strong motions recordings of the main shock of the L’Aquila sequence enlighten the critical role played by both the local response and distances metric for sites located above a seismogenic fault; however, these time-histories are compatible with the uncertainties of a deterministic utilization of ground motion predictive equations. As recordings at very near field are rare, they cannot be neglected while defining the seismic input. Disaggregation on the non-Possonian seismotectonic analysis and on the stationary site-intensity estimates reach very similar results in magnitude-distance pairs identification; we interpret this convergence as a validation of the geology-based model by historical observations.     

A long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from September 2011 to August 2016. The likely location,time, and evolution of the next great earthquake with M ≥ 7.7 in Kamchatka

We consider the results from the ongoing 2010–2011 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the pattern of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We develop a forecast for the next 5 years, from September 2011 to August 2016, for all segments of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc earthquake-generating zone. For 20 segments we predict the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probability 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, and the maximum possible magnitudes and probability of occurrence for great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. This study serves as another confirmation that it is entirely necessary to continue the work in seismic retrofitting in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii.     

The long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc for the April 2016 through March 2021 period,its modification and application; the Kuril–Kamchatka seismicity before and after the May 24, 2013, M 8.3 deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

This paper discusses results from ongoing research on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the concepts of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We developed a forecast for the next 5 years (April 2016 through March 2021) for all segments of the earthquake-generating zone along the Kuril–Kamchatka arc. The 20 segments of the arc were analyzed to develop forecasts of the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, a normalized parameter of the rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes that are expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. We discuss the seismic process in the Kuril–Kamchatka earthquake-generating zone before and after the deep-focus May 24, 2013 M 8.3 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk. The results corroborate the high seismic hazard in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii and the urgent need for continuing with and expanding the ongoing work of seismic retrofitting and seismic safety enhancement. We quote practical results from applications of the method during 30 years.     

“Great East Siberian” earthquake of February 1, 1725 (M = 8.2): Revision of the main parameters in the light of additional data and modern requirements

The earthquake of February 1 (January 21 in the Julian Calendar), 1725 was for a long time considered not only the earliest precisely dated historical seismic event in eastern Siberia, but also the most powerful earthquake for the entire period of recorded seismic events in the region: M = 8.2 (Novyi katalog…, 1977). The epicenter location (Stanovoy Upland) and the magnitude of the event were assessed on the basis of very scanty historical data, as well as using paleoseismogeological information. The February 1, 1725 event received the name “The Great East Siberian” earthquake and served for decades as decisive evidence for the assessment of the seismic hazard and seismic zoning of the northeastern flank of the Baikal rift zone. However, the solution of the focal parameters in the (Novyi katalog…, 1977) has caused serious doubts. In this paper a newly elaborated version is proposed that is based on a detailed reevaluation of the initially known macroseismic information, as well as additional historical data that previously had not come to the attention of seismologists. As the result, a different solution of the focal parameters (51.8° N; 113.0° E, eastern Transbaikalia) and a significantly lower magnitude (M = 6.0) compared with the parameters given in (Novyi katalog…, 1977) were obtained. The presented solution makes us more attentive to the estimates of seismic hazard in east Transbaikalia based on historical data, as well as to the historical data themselves.     

Comments on “Tomographic evidence for the mantle upwelling beneath southwestern Japan and its implications for arc magmatism” by J. Nakajima and A. Hasegawa [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 254 (2007), 90–105]

Based on tomographic images, Nakajima and Hasegawa [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 254 (2007), 90–105] discussed that fluids derived from the stagnant Pacific plate caused the back-arc volcanisms in SW Japan. Geochemical features of the volcanic products in SW Japan, however, suggest that fluids dehydrated from the stagnant slab did not play a significant role in the magma genesis. Therefore, discussions of Nakajima and Hasegawa should be revised.