Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Oman coast from submarine earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone

The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.     

Trapped waves of the 27 November 1945 Makran tsunami: observations and numerical modeling

The 27 November 1945 earthquake in the Makran Subduction Zone triggered a destructive tsunami that has left important problems unresolved. According to the available reports, high waves persisted along the Makran coast and at Karachi for several hours after the arrival of the first wave. Long-duration sea-level oscillations were also reported from Port Victoria, Seychelles. On the other hand, only one high wave was reported from Mumbai. Tide-gauge records of the tsunami from Karachi and Mumbai confirm these reports. While the data from Mumbai shows a single high wave, Karachi data shows that high waves persisted for more than 7 h, with maximum wave height occurring 2.8 h after the arrival of the first wave. In this paper, we analyze the cause of these persistent high waves using a numerical model. The simulation reproduces the observed features reasonably well, particularly the persistent high waves at Karachi and the single high wave at Mumbai. It further reveals that the persistent high waves along the Makran coast and at Karachi were the result of trapping of the tsunami-wave energy on the continental shelf off the Makran coast and that these coastally-trapped edge waves were trapped in the along-shore direction within a ∼300-km stretch of the continental shelf. Sensitivity experiments establish that this along-shore trapping of the tsunami energy is due to variations in the shelf width. In addition, the model simulation indicates that the reported long duration of sea-level oscillations at Port Victoria were mainly due to trapping of the tsunami energy over the large shallow region surrounding the Seychelles archipelago.     

Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M _w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.     

The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past??a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600?years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000?years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.     

Historic records of teletsunami in the Indian Ocean and insights from numerical modelling

Following the catastrophic “Great Sumatra–Andaman” earthquake- tsunami in the Indian Ocean on the 26th December 2004, questions have been asked about the frequency and magnitude of tsunami within the region. We present a summary of the previously published lists of Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) and the results of a preliminary search of archival materials held at the India Records Office, at the British Library in London. We demonstrate that in some cases, normal tidal movements and floods associated with tropical cyclones have been erroneously listed as tsunami. We summarise archival material for tsunami that occurred in 1945, 1941, 1881, 1819, 1762 and a little known tsunami in 1843. We present the results of modelling of the 2004, 1861 and 1833 tsunami generated by earthquakes off Sumatra and the 1945 Makran earthquake and tsunami, and examine how these results help to explain some of the historical observations. The highly directional component to tsunami propagation illustrated by the numerical models may explain why we are unable to locate archival records of the 1861 and 1833 tsunami at important locations like Rangoon, Kolkata (formally Calcutta) and Chennai (formally Madras), despite reports that these events created large tsunami that inundated western Sumatra. The numerical models identify other areas (particularly the central and southern Indian Ocean islands) where the 1833 tsunami may have had a large enough effect to produce a historic record. We recommend further archival research, coastal geological investigations of tsunami impacts and detailed modelling of tsunami propagation to better understand the record and effects of tsunami in the Indian Ocean and to estimate their likelihood of occurring in the future.     

Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis

The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain, the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.     

Numerical storm surge model for India and Pakistan

The northeastern sector of the Arabian Sea, which covers the Gujarat coast of India and western coast of Pakistan, is a region vulnerable to extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea is not high, the coastal regions of India and Pakistan suffer in terms of loss of life and property caused by the surges. In view of this a location-specific fine resolution model is developed for the Gujarat coast of India and adjoining Pakistan coast. The east–west and north–south grid distance is about 3.0 km. Using this model, numerical experiments are carried out to simulate the surges generated by 1999 and 2001 cyclones which struck the Pakistan coast. The model computed surges are in agreement with the available observational estimates.     

Climate and environmental change at the end of the Holocene Humid Period: A pollen record off Pakistan

Pollen studies from core SO90-56KA recovered from the Arabian Sea off the Makran Coast (24° 509N, 65° 559E; 695 m depth) show that the end of the Holocene Humid Period, linked to the weakening of Indian monsoon fluxes, took place between 4700 and 4200 BP. Two periods of strong summer monsoon activity are identified between 5400–4200 BP and 2000–1000 BP during which the montane pollen taxa coming from the Himalayas reached the Makran coast due to increased fluvial activity of the Indus River. A contrasting period, dominated by the winter monsoon between 4200 and 2000 BP, is identified based on the presence of pollen taxa from the Baluchistan plateaus. The regional vegetation of the low- and midaltitudes, arid and semiarid, are remarkably stable from 4500 BP to the present.     

Run-up and Inundation Pattern Developed During the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004 Along the Coast of Tamilnadu (India)

The tsunami run-up, inundation and damage pattern observed along the coast of Tamilnadu (India) during the deadliest Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 is documented in this paper. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in the coastal areas of eleven countries, bordering the Indian Ocean. Along the coast of Indian mainland, the damage was caused by the tsunami only. Largest tsunami run-up and inundation was observed along the coast of Nagapattinam district and was about 10–12 m and 3.0 km, respectively. The measured inundation data were strongly scattered in direct relationship to the morphology of the seashore and the tsunami run-up. Lowest tsunami run-up and inundation was measured along the coast of Thanjavur, Puddukkotai and Ramnathpuram districts of Tamilnadu in the Palk Strait. The presence of shadow of Sri Lanka, the interferences of direct/receded waves with the reflected waves from Sri Lanka and Maldive Islands and variation in the width of continental shelf were the main cause of large variation in tsunami run-up along the coast of Tamilnadu.     

Circulation and water masses of the Arabian Sea

The dynamics and thermodynamics of the surface layer of the Arabian Sea, north of about 10N, are dominated by the monsoon-related annual cycle of air-sea fluxes of momentum and heat. The currents in open-sea regime of this layer can be largely accounted for by Ekman drift and the thermal field is dominated by local heat fluxes. The geostrophic currents in open-sea subsurface regime also show a seasonal cycle and there is some evidence that signatures of this cycle appear as deep as 1000 m. The forcing due to Ekman suction is an important mechanism for the geostrophic currents in the central and western parts of the Sea. Recent studies suggest that the eastern part is strongly influenced by the Rossby waves radiated by the Kelvin waves propagating along the west coast of India. The circulation in the coastal region off Oman is driven mainly by local winds and there is no remotely driven western boundary current. Local wind-driving is also important to the coastal circulation off western India during the southwest monsoon but not during the northeast monsoon when a strong (approximately 7 × 10⁶m³/sec) current moves poleward against weak winds. This current is driven by a pressure gradient which forms along this coast during the northeast monsoon due to either thermohaline-forcing or due to the arrival of Kelvin waves from the Bay of Bengal. The present speculation about flow of bottom water (deeper than about 3500 m) in the Arabian Sea is that it moves northward and upwells into the layer of North Indian Deep Water (approximately 1500–3500m). It is further speculated that the flow in this layer consists of a poleward western boundary current and a weak equatorward flow in the interior. It is not known if there is an annual cycle associated with the deep and the bottom water circulation.     

Classifying inundation limits in SE coast of India: application of GIS

A study on the possible inundation limit in SE coast of India was carried out using various physical, geological and satellite imageries. The coastal inundation hazard map was prepared for this particular region as it was affected by many cyclones, flooding, storm surge and tsunami waves during the last six decades. The results were generated using various satellite data (IRS-P6 LISS3; LANDSAT ETM; LANDSAT-5 ETM; LANDSAT MSS) and digital elevation models (ASTER GLOBAL DEM), and a coastal vulnerability index was generated for the entire coastal stretch of Nagapattinam region in SE coast of India. The coastal area which will be submerged totally due to a 1–5 m rise in water level due to any major natural disaster (tsunami or cyclone) indicates that 56–320 km² will be submerged in this particular region. The results suggest that nearly 7 towns and 69 villages with 667,477 people will be affected and indicate that proper planning needs to be done for future development.     

Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.     

Impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami along the Tamil Nadu coastline: field survey review and numerical simulations

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had a significant impact on the Tamil Nadu coast in India. In this paper, a range of field survey data collected by different survey teams available in literature have been analyzed and compiled to serve as a basis for validation of numerical tsunami simulations. The individual field surveys reveal a significant scatter in the run-up data between the different teams, which point out that the uncertainty in these data must be taken into account when using them for validation. The inundation of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated for the coastlines of Chennai and Nagapattinam based on high-resolution topography. Different spatially uniform Manning friction as well as heterogeneous friction maps is used. Overall, the simulation results showed a good agreement with the field observations, but there are also some observed spatial variability in the goodness of the fit between the data and simulations. In some areas, clear discrepancies are found. The results obtained using detailed land use maps including spatially variable friction are not significantly more accurate than those employing spatially constant values. For most areas, parameters indicating relatively low friction provided best match with the observations. This may also suggest that the inundation is often strongly governed by local variations in topography.     

Mapping of seawater inundation along Nagapattinam based on field observations

Nagapattinam, in the east coast of India, was severely affected during the deadliest Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004. The tsunami caused heavy damage to life and property, and the death toll was about 3,378 in Nagapattinam taluk. Certain villages along the coast witnessed large inundation while adjacent villages were protected from the fury of the tsunami waves. This study was carried out to examine the underlying causes for the vulnerability along Nagapattinam coast with the help of field observations, remote sensing, and geographical information system as tools. Coastal areas with high sand dunes have been protected from tsunami, and areas adjacent to backwaters were inundated. Realtime Kinematic Global Positioning System and high-resolution satellite data were used to map the topographic information and maximum extent of inundation. Thematic maps on land use, land cover, and coastal geomorphology were generated using remote sensing and field data. Using field data as the primary source of information, tsunami hazard maps have been generated for Nagapattinam.     

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in urban areas using numerical model and GIS

Natural disasters can neither be predicted nor prevented. Urban areas with a high population density coupled with the construction of man-made structures are subjected to greater levels of risk to life and property in the event of natural hazards. One of the major and densely populated urban areas in the east coast of India is the city of Chennai (Madras), which was severely affected by the 2004 Tsunami, and mitigation efforts were severely dampened due to the non-availability of data on the vulnerability on the Chennai coast to tsunami hazard. Chennai is prone to coastal hazards and hence has hazard maps on its earth-quake prone areas, cyclone prone areas and flood prone areas but no information on areas vulnerable to tsunamis. Hence, mapping has to be done of the areas where the tsunami of December 2004 had directly hit and flooded the coastal areas in Chennai in order to develop tsunami vulnerability map for coastal Chennai. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tsunami vulnerability map for Chennai by using a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004. World-renowned and the second-longest tourist beach in the world “Marina” present in this region witnessed maximum death toll due to its flat topography, resulting in an inundation of about 300 m landward with high flow velocity of the order of 2 m/s.     

Earthquake risk assessment for the building inventory of Muscat,Sultanate of Oman

Little Andaman, the fourth largest island in the Andaman group of islands of India, was severely affected by the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami generated by massive earthquake of moment magnitude 9.3 Mw which devastated the Andaman and Nicobar group of islands causing heavy damage to life and property. Due to hostile terrain conditions not much information was available on the extent of inundation and run-up along the island except for Hut Bay region. In order to study the vulnerability of the island to tsunami hazard, the inundation in the island due to the 2004 tsunami was studied using TUNAMI N2 numerical model and ENVISAT ASAR datasets. The extent of inundation derived from the SAR imagery was compared using the RTK-GPS field survey points collected in the Hut Bay regions immediately after the 2004 tsunami. The extent of inundation obtained from SAR images for the entire island was compared with inundation obtained from model. It was observed that the inundation obtained from the model matched well with inundation extent from SAR imagery for nearshore regions, while for low-lying areas and creeks large deviations were observed. In the absence of field datasets, the inundation derived from SAR imagery would be effective in providing ground data to validate the numerical models which can then be run for multiple scenarios for disaster mitigation and planning operation in areas that have hostile terrain conditions.     

Numerical simulation and field survey of inundation due to 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Trincomalee,Sri Lanka

This paper outlines the field measurements and numerical modelling carried out to develop a high-resolution tsunami inundation map, as a case study, for the city of Trincomalee on the east coast of Sri Lanka, which was devastated by the 2004 tsunami. We employ the deterministic approach together with numerical simulations based on the probable worst-case scenario to derive the inundation map. Linear and non-linear versions of shallow-water equations have been utilized to simulate tsunami propagation and onshore inundation, respectively. The field data considered in the present paper comprise the extent of inundation, the tsunami heights and the arrival times whilst the model results include the spatial distribution of the flow depth, the peak current speeds and the momentum flux. The computed extent of onshore inundation reproduces the observed overall pattern of inundation in most areas barring the south-eastern part of the city. Further, the model simulations suggest maximum flow depths up to about 2 m in most areas of the city whilst patches of flow depths exceeding 2 m can be seen in a narrow strip along the coastline. The computed current speeds also exceed 3 m/s at some locations adjacent to the shoreline.     

Historical tsunami records and potential tsunami scenarios near Haikou coastal region

Historical tsunami records in the South China Sea are collected and analyzed in this paper. There have been about 54 tsunamis in the South China Sea since 1076. The impacts of the transoceanic tsunamis on the southeast coast of China are weak. However, the regional tsunamis in the South China Sea bring varying degrees of influence to the south coast of China, which occurred about 18 times. By the analysis of the potential tsunami sources in the South China Sea, numerical simulations of tsunami induced in the Manila Trench are carried out. It is found that the tsunami wave height is small near Haikou if the general earthquake tsunami occurred. But the tsunami wave height is large when a giant earthquake of M9.3 occurred. If this extreme situation arises, the impacts to the coast of Haikou will be serious.     

A model of the subsidence history of the West Coast of India

The occurrence of earthquakes all along the West Coast of India and in the Arabian Sea is explained systematically in terms of the interaction between the underthrusting Indian ocean floor and the Indian subcontinent. This north ward compression due to the repeated underthrusting of the oceanic floor has caused the formation of trenches, grabens and normal faults on the continental margin.     

Tsunami risk for Western Canada and numerical modelling of the Cascadia fault tsunami

The paper deals with the analysis of tsunami risks for Western Canada and the numerical modelling of a potential tsunami which could affect the region and generate significant damage to the western Canadian coastline. Following a review of the seismic risk and historical tsunamis which occurred along the western Canadian coastline, the authors concluded that this region is highly vulnerable should a major tsunami occur. Consequently, the authors conducted a study on the numerical modelling of a possible tsunami generated by movement along the Cascadia fault, which is located offshore British Columbia. The results of the model outline the significance and extent of the coastal flooding risk associated with such a rare, but destructive phenomenon. The potential for inundation of the low-lying areas around the coastline of Vancouver Island and in and around the City of Vancouver was found to be high. A number of recommendations and conclusions focusing on the results of the numerical simulation are included.